ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags Russia-Ukraine relations , Ukraine incidents , Ukraine issues , vladimir putin

Reply
Old 28th February 2015, 01:46 PM   #121
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,769
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Let's see how the Putin fanboys justify this.....
Have you not the slightest doubt that this was instigated by Putin?
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th February 2015, 02:04 PM   #122
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,769
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
As I said earlier I'm not familiar with Chechnya. But since everyone seems to be asking this I've typed in "chechnya opinion poll" in google and the first result is of a poll finding that 78% of Chechnyans want to remain part of Russia. So no, I don't support its independence based on that. Of course maybe I just stumbled on a statistical outlier, again I'm not familiar enough with it to be able to tell.
Chechnya, as currently outlined, comprises two very disparate parts : in the north is the flat fringe of the steppeland, perfect for agriculture and heavily colonised by Slavs as the Russian Empire established security in the region, and a fringe of Caucasian hill-clan territory of the Islamic primitivist persuasion. The north then experienced one of the first oil-booms, in the late 19thCE and into the 20th. Peculiar it certainly is, but not an outlier; most places down there are peculiar.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th February 2015, 02:22 PM   #123
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
Chechnya, as currently outlined, comprises two very disparate parts : in the north is the flat fringe of the steppeland, perfect for agriculture and heavily colonised by Slavs as the Russian Empire established security in the region, and a fringe of Caucasian hill-clan territory of the Islamic primitivist persuasion. The north then experienced one of the first oil-booms, in the late 19thCE and into the 20th. Peculiar it certainly is, but not an outlier; most places down there are peculiar.
Thank you for the explanation. I meant outlier in the sense that this specific poll (most Chechnyans wanting to be part of Russia) may have been an outlier whereas most other polls suggest otherwise. Since at least two people have been asking whether I support Chechnya (in the sense of supporting its independence I presume) after I said that I support self-determination above all, I would have expected to find that a majority of Chechnyans want independence.

Last edited by caveman1917; 28th February 2015 at 02:24 PM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th February 2015, 02:23 PM   #124
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,769
Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
Do you support Chechnya?
What do you mean by Chechnya? Lines on the map and the people who find themselves inside them?

Quote:
At what size does this right to self deternination end, family, block, neighborhood, town, valley?
You missed out "individual", but you have asked the most pertinent question there is regarding the human experience.

I have no answer, any more than anybody else does or has ever done. I can only reflect on what seems to work and what seems not to. Self-determination based on lines drawn on maps and the people who find themselves inside them doesn't seem to work.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th February 2015, 02:31 PM   #125
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
Self-determination based on lines drawn on maps and the people who find themselves inside them doesn't seem to work.
Is that an inherent issue of drawing lines on the maps or a result of a general unwillingness to redraw those lines, and a willingness to use force to stop it, when circumstances and popular will change?
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th February 2015, 02:44 PM   #126
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,769
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Thank you for the explanation. I meant outlier in the sense that this specific poll (most Chechnyans wanting to be part of Russia) may have been an outlier whereas most other polls suggest otherwise. Since at least two people have been asking whether I support Chechnya (in the sense of supporting its independence I presume) after I said that I support self-determination, I would have expected to find that a majority of Chechnyans want independence.
The Chechnyan thing is, of course, a distraction as rhetorical device. The people who throw it up haven't the slightest clue about its peculiarities. They don't have a clue that everywhere has its peculiarites. There can be similarities but no equivalences.

The problem with Ukraine is that it's utterly artificial. There's never been a Ukrainian government that hasn't been prefixed with "Pro-Western" or "Pro-Russian". One bunch of thieves or another; the only purpose of Ukraine was that it be thieves in Kiev, not Moscow.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th February 2015, 03:01 PM   #127
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,769
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Is that an inherent issue of drawing lines on the maps or a result of a general unwillingness to redraw those lines, and a willingness to use force to stop it, when circumstances and popular will change?
It's the unwillingness to redraw lines even if they're clearly disastrous. The can of worms principle applies. Consider all the borders drawn by the Imperial powers for their own convenience and left behind for new rulers with a UN guarantee. Hasn't turned out terribly well.

Dividing the USSR by its administrative borders was a lazy option but what the heck when there's money to be made and liberal democratic capitalism to spread throughout the world by virtue of its triumph. I always knew it looked to easy.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th February 2015, 03:19 PM   #128
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 37,651
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
Have you not the slightest doubt that this was instigated by Putin?

Putin is by far the most likely suspect.

From the way this hit was carred out, it was a professional level job,
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th February 2015, 03:27 PM   #129
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 15,982
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Putin is by far the most likely suspect.

From the way this hit was carred out, it was a professional level job,
It doesn't harm Putin's position, but equally, extreme nationalists could do it independently.
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Expenditure on healthcare
http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm
link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
jimbob is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th February 2015, 03:49 PM   #130
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
The problem with Ukraine is that it's utterly artificial. There's never been a Ukrainian government that hasn't been prefixed with "Pro-Western" or "Pro-Russian". One bunch of thieves or another; the only purpose of Ukraine was that it be thieves in Kiev, not Moscow.
That was one of the arguments against Maidan that came from the East, that it's just exchanging one set of crooks for another. After Akhmetov and other Donbass oligarchs dropped Yanukovich and switched sides there was a window of opportunity within the East's rebel movement to kick out and expropriate them, the earliest proposals called for nationalisation, but we all know how that turned out once the Russian nationalists got hold of it.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th February 2015, 08:50 PM   #131
LSSBB
Devilish Dictionarian
 
LSSBB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: An elusive house at Bachelors Grove Cemetery
Posts: 15,846
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Putin is by far the most likely suspect.

From the way this hit was carred out, it was a professional level job,
We don't know who carried it out, or if Putin even knew. It could have been fanboys looking to score some points, and ala many other an assassination, they end up creating a martyr.
__________________
"Realize deeply that the present moment is all you ever have." (Eckhart Tolle, 2004)
LSSBB is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 02:36 AM   #132
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,479
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
That would be assets of Russian nationals then.
State companies, owned by the state?

Quote:
I don't think it's likely at all. The Russian economy is largely internal, and a lose-lose game where Russia loses less than the West can be sold as a win and a chance to show that old Russian mettle in adversity. Make-do and mend - it's less than a generation away.
I'm not sure even that would work. Western exposure to Russia is about 1 month's work of ECB QE. I'm reasonably certain West is more capable of withstanding Russian deafult than Putin.

Quote:
It's far more likely that Nemtsov was killed for what he said about the Donbass war than any threat he might pose to Putin. The real threat to Putin is the nationalist tiger he thought to ride.
In that case they probably killed a few others before him. Any luck in finding those?

McHrozni
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 03:11 AM   #133
Aber
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,044
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Thank you for the explanation. I meant outlier in the sense that this specific poll (most Chechnyans wanting to be part of Russia) may have been an outlier whereas most other polls suggest otherwise. Since at least two people have been asking whether I support Chechnya (in the sense of supporting its independence I presume) after I said that I support self-determination above all, I would have expected to find that a majority of Chechnyans want independence.


The question about Chechnya is relevant because in the 1990s Chechnya was de facto independent, and Russia has fought 2 bloody wars to put in place its own strongman president.

Ignoring this history makes you appear ignorant and hypocritical in supporting Russian actions in eastern Ukraine.
Aber is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 04:36 AM   #134
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Ignoring this history makes you appear ignorant and hypocritical in supporting Russian actions in eastern Ukraine.
Seriously? I've said twice that I'm not familiar enough with Chechnya to make a determination. However since it got asked twice I figured I'd take a quick look, said exactly how I did that (googling "Chechnya opinion poll") and presented what I found. Even then I openly admitted that I am not familiar enough to be able to tell whether what I found was an accurate representation of what the Chechnyans want. I'm very well aware that it takes a lot more study to understand a situation than just looking at one opinion poll, and have openly admitted that I have not done such study nor am I particularly interested in doing so. All I have found is that the Chechnyans don't want to be independent. If you care to present data that they do, then I'm more than willing to change my conclusion. And if they really don't want independence, then maybe you should tell them that they're ignorant. It's not hypocritical, it's being consistent.

I am however familiar enough with Ukraine and have studied its nuances, its history and the various opinion polls over time. And I don't support the Russian actions in East-Ukraine, I support the Russian annexation of Crimea and the militia in East-Ukraine. I only support the Russian actions in Ukraine in as much as they stop Kiev's actions in East-Ukraine, the majority of the population there don't want either Kiev or Moscow to rule over them - they want mostly self-rule, only a minority wants to join Russia but that's still more than the minority that want to keep the current Ukrainian situation. Hence in ascending order of support we have Kiev, Russia, the militias.

Last edited by caveman1917; 1st March 2015 at 04:39 AM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 06:26 AM   #135
Aber
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,044
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Seriously? I've said twice that I'm not familiar enough with Chechnya to make a determination. However since it got asked twice I figured I'd take a quick look, said exactly how I did that (googling "Chechnya opinion poll") and presented what I found. Even then I openly admitted that I am not familiar enough to be able to tell whether what I found was an accurate representation of what the Chechnyans want. I'm very well aware that it takes a lot more study to understand a situation than just looking at one opinion poll, and have openly admitted that I have not done such study nor am I particularly interested in doing so. All I have found is that the Chechnyans don't want to be independent. If you care to present data that they do, then I'm more than willing to change my conclusion. And if they really don't want independence, then maybe you should tell them that they're ignorant. It's not hypocritical, it's being consistent.
Some history for you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War

Quote:
The First Chechen War, also known as the War in Chechnya, was a conflict between the Russian Federation and the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, fought from December 1994 to August 1996
Quote:
The official figure for Russian military deaths is 5,500, while most estimates put the number between 3,500 and 7,500, or even as high as 14,000.[7] Although there are no accurate figures for the number of Chechen forces killed, various estimates put the number at about 3,000 to over 15,000 deaths. Various figures estimate the number of civilian deaths at between 30,000 and 100,000 killed and possibly over 200,000 injured, while more than 500,000 people were displaced by the conflict, which left cities and villages across the republic in ruins.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War

Quote:
The campaign ended the de facto independence of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria and restored Russian federal control over the territory.
Quote:
The exact death toll from this conflict is unknown. Unofficial estimates range from 25,000 to 50,000 dead or missing, mostly civilians in Chechnya. Russian casualties are over 5,200 (official Russian casualty figures)[26] and are about 11,000 according to the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers.[27]
Russia's response to the defacto independence of a republic which was part of the Russian Federation is military intervention with huge casualties.

So pick a principle:
- a state is entitled to do whatever it takes to prevent a region declaring independence - Russia's view of Chechnya
- a state is entitled to occupy and annex part of another country, as long it can show that a referendum that it controls shows that the population wants it - Russia's view of Crimea
- state borders can be changed BUT it requires BOTH the agreement of the local population AND the international community - most of the west's view
- whatever Russia does is right and moral - the Kremlin view

Quote:
And I don't support the Russian actions in East-Ukraine, I support the Russian annexation of Crimea and the militia in East-Ukraine.
You do realise that without Russia action and support there would not be a militia in eastern Ukraine?
Aber is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 07:13 AM   #136
LSSBB
Devilish Dictionarian
 
LSSBB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: An elusive house at Bachelors Grove Cemetery
Posts: 15,846
Wait a second - are opinion polls a solid basis for democracy? Especially with the question of whether they were constructed in an unbiased fashion, an what population was sampled, still open?
__________________
"Realize deeply that the present moment is all you ever have." (Eckhart Tolle, 2004)
LSSBB is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 07:39 AM   #137
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by Aber View Post
So pick a principle
None of those. I believe I've already explained the principle that I choose to use, but to put it in your terms: A local population can do whatever it wants, join any state it wants (if the population in that state agrees with it of course), secede from any state it wants, change its status within a state without secession (such as federalization), etc; and it's nobody else's business to interfere with it.

Quote:
You do realise that without Russia action and support there would not be a militia in eastern Ukraine?
Maybe, maybe not. Have you considered that if Kiev hadn't decided to use military force to suppress the autonomy movement that there wouldn't be a militia either? Still, this is all speculation.

Last edited by caveman1917; 1st March 2015 at 07:53 AM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 07:49 AM   #138
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
Wait a second - are opinion polls a solid basis for democracy? Especially with the question of whether they were constructed in an unbiased fashion, an what population was sampled, still open?
You can't just look at a single opinion poll, but have to analyze all available polls and other data to get an understanding of what a population thinks and wants. That's why I said that even if the single poll I found about Chechnya finds that they don't want independence it may still not be an accurate representation, I'm just not interested enough in Chechnya to put in the effort required.

Opinion polls aren't a solid basis for democracy, referenda would be. Which is ironically exactly what happened in Crimea and the Donbass. Both showing results that are consistent with the polls. Opinion polls are however, especially when they're consistent with eachother, the best way to find out what a population wants. It's not perfect, but as far as grounding a position in actual data goes, it's the best there is.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 08:24 AM   #139
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
You can't just look at a single opinion poll, but have to analyze all available polls and other data to get an understanding of what a population thinks and wants.
To illustrate this, take a look at this propaganda piece in the Washington Post (this was the standard type of articles being published in the Western press at the time)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...harts-in-mind/

What it conveniently fails to point out is that the poll it uses to find only 41% support in Crimea for unification with Russia asks whether they think that the entire Ukraine should join Russia and that they are cherry-picking and misrepresenting it. Unless you are familiar with all the other polls and can see that this result doesn't fit you're unlikely to catch this sort of stuff. That's why I won't take a position on Chechnya until I've done my research, which I'm not going to do anyway because it doesn't interest me enough.

Last edited by caveman1917; 1st March 2015 at 09:00 AM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 11:02 AM   #140
Aber
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,044
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Maybe, maybe not. Have you considered that if Kiev hadn't decided to use military force to suppress the autonomy movement that there wouldn't be a militia either? Still, this is all speculation.
What autonomy movement? Do you mean Russian special forces in unmarked uniforms, like Strelkov?

As to the principle that any population can change its status on its own - have you thought this through? How do you define the area under consideration; how do you measure the will of the population; do you accept the ultimate result of this is everybody having their own country?
Aber is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 11:47 AM   #141
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by Aber View Post
What autonomy movement? Do you mean Russian special forces in unmarked uniforms, like Strelkov?
No, I mean these people
http://photo.sf.co.ua/g/394/5.jpg
http://www.rogerannis.com/wp-content...ril-6-2014.jpg
http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibti...?itok=tqzHvrEw
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/ao0Gjf5UERk/maxresdefault.jpg

Quote:
As to the principle that any population can change its status on its own - have you thought this through?
If the alternative is civil war then yes, I'll go with self-determination instead.

Quote:
How do you define the area under consideration
Recursively. Start with a large area, and recursively subdivide until the problem is solved.

Quote:
how do you measure the will of the population
By referendum.

Quote:
do you accept the ultimate result of this is everybody having their own country?
No, you have not presented evidence of this. For instance Crimea isn't its own country now, it just switched.

Last edited by caveman1917; 1st March 2015 at 11:48 AM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 01:49 PM   #142
Aber
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,044
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
No, you have not presented evidence of this. For instance Crimea isn't its own country now, it just switched.
Presumably you believe that the Crimean Tartars who are being harassed by the Russian authorities have the right to decide they do not want to remain in Russia, but could rejoin Ukraine?
Aber is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 03:24 PM   #143
carlitos
"más divertido"
 
carlitos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 17,723
Originally Posted by Aber View Post
What autonomy movement? Do you mean Russian special forces in unmarked uniforms, like Strelkov?


What a concept. . External autonomy? Enforced autonomy? Putinonomy ?
carlitos is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 08:51 PM   #144
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Presumably you believe that the Crimean Tartars who are being harassed by the Russian authorities have the right to decide they do not want to remain in Russia, but could rejoin Ukraine?
Of course they have the right. Do you have evidence that says they want to rejoin Ukraine?

Latest data I know of (january 2015) shows that 4% of Crimeans doesn't agree with the annexation, of which only 20% (less than 1% of the total sample) said that is because they preferred Ukraine. Compare with 12% Crimean Tatar population. Of interest here is that 45% say that reporting in Ukrainian media about Crimea is absolutely false and another 35% saying it is more false than true. And it's not because they're "brainwashed by Russian propaganda", only 10% trust the Russian media. It doesn't ask about Western media, but that's essentially copy-pasting Ukrainian media as far as Crimea/Donbass goes.

http://www.gfk.com/ua/Documents/Pres...FreeCrimea.pdf

So rather than ask me the exact same question over and over again substituting one group after another, would it not be better to be more skeptical about the reports that presumably lead to the assumptions underlying your questions?

Last edited by caveman1917; 1st March 2015 at 09:00 PM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 08:52 PM   #145
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by carlitos View Post
What a concept. . External autonomy? Enforced autonomy? Putinonomy ?
Yes, a right to self-determination even if they don't want what the West wants? What a concept...
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 09:34 PM   #146
tyr_13
Penultimate Amazing
 
tyr_13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 15,094
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Yes, a right to self-determination even if they don't want what the West wants? What a concept...
How was it determined that they actually wanted this? Free and fair referendum? No, it was after being invaded by the same power they allegedly so badly wanted to join, observed only by that power, and after the people who might have argued and voted against it had been driven out.

Even if one is to argue that a simple local referendum would be all that is required to leave one country and join another, it doesn't mean that this referendum was valid. It was not, and it matters nothing what someone believes a valid referendum would have resulted in.
__________________
Circled nothing is still nothing.
"Nothing will stop the U.S. from being a world leader, not even a handful of adults who want their kids to take science lessons from a book that mentions unicorns six times." -UNLoVedRebel
Mumpsimus: a stubborn person who insists on making an error in spite of being shown that it is wrong
tyr_13 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 11:34 PM   #147
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,479
Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
How was it determined that they actually wanted this? Free and fair referendum? No, it was after being invaded by the same power they allegedly so badly wanted to join, observed only by that power, and after the people who might have argued and voted against it had been driven out.
And after enduring a few weeks of media blackout, with only Russian propaganda permitted. The referendum went badly, so they posted fake results. Real results leaked a little bit later.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulrode...or-annexation/

30% turnout, 50% in favor of annexation.

There were no instruments against vote rigging, and it's likely Russian servicemen in Crimea voted as well, plus there was no effective measure against multiple voting. It's likely the pro-Russian sentiment was even lower than that.

McHrozni
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2015, 11:56 PM   #148
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,479
Pro-Ukrainian bloggers posted this analysis about how important Ukraine is to Putler:

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.com/201...lfill-its.html

The gist of it: without Ukraine, Russia can't field fighters, helicopters, can't build air to air missiles and doesn't have a nuclear deterrent.

In other words, without Ukraine, Russia barely matches ISIS in war hardware. Note to all dictator wannabes: if your army relies on another state, make sure you treat it well.

McHrozni
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 01:36 AM   #149
Rincewind
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Adirondacks, NY - with Magrat!
Posts: 7,562
Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Some history for you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War





http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War





Russia's response to the defacto independence of a republic which was part of the Russian Federation is military intervention with huge casualties.

So pick a principle:
- a state is entitled to do whatever it takes to prevent a region declaring independence - Russia's view of Chechnya
- a state is entitled to occupy and annex part of another country, as long it can show that a referendum that it controls shows that the population wants it - Russia's view of Crimea
- state borders can be changed BUT it requires BOTH the agreement of the local population AND the international community - most of the west's view
- whatever Russia does is right and moral - the Kremlin view



You do realise that without Russia action and support there would not be a militia in eastern Ukraine?
It does make me wonder about the poll that Caveman1917 found.

After all that Russia has done to Chechnya it seems to defy common sense that anyone there would want to unite with Russia.
Rincewind is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 01:43 AM   #150
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,479
Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
After all that Russia has done to Chechnya it seems to defy common sense that anyone there would want to unite with Russia.
Cognitive dissonance or, by it's classical name that I prefer, doublethink.

Russian crimes since 1991 eclipse those of any other state in that time, except North Korea. But because it opposes US from time to time it is permissible for Russia to do anything and everything it desires.

There is no sense in arguing with these people, if they had any reason whatsoever they would've found out their positions were illogical to the point of absurdity by now. Use the ignore button if they bother you.

McHrozni

Last edited by McHrozni; 2nd March 2015 at 01:45 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 01:57 AM   #151
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,479
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
Dividing the USSR by its administrative borders was a lazy option but what the heck when there's money to be made and liberal democratic capitalism to spread throughout the world by virtue of its triumph. I always knew it looked to easy.
While I agree it was the lazy option, this also assumes the West is somehow to blame for dividing the USSR the way it was divided. This seems rather unjustified to me. I can agree the British have historic blame (that they can't fix now) for Iraq and that the French have historic blame for some of the feces going on in western Africa and so on, but this can't apply to the case of USSR. Western powers didn't occupy or control the land, they didn't dictate the terms of breakup - they didn't even dictate the breakup itself, the government in Moscow had the option of cracking down on dissent by force come hell of high water. The West couldn't stop it anyway.

There is also a presumption that states with significant minorities are somehow ungovernable. This is nothing short of ludicrous as long as Switzerland exists. Last time I checked it's a rather prosperous state as well, even though it has no substantial natural resources.

McHrozni
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 03:19 AM   #152
Rincewind
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Adirondacks, NY - with Magrat!
Posts: 7,562
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Cognitive dissonance or, by it's classical name that I prefer, doublethink.

Russian crimes since 1991 eclipse those of any other state in that time, except North Korea. But because it opposes US from time to time it is permissible for Russia to do anything and everything it desires.

There is no sense in arguing with these people, if they had any reason whatsoever they would've found out their positions were illogical to the point of absurdity by now. Use the ignore button if they bother you.

McHrozni
I agree with you - and definitely not bothered!
Rincewind is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 07:12 AM   #153
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
How was it determined that they actually wanted this?
By all the polls, even dating back years ago, saying so. If you want some examples

http://www.razumkov.org.ua/eng/files...D104_eng_2.pdf
http://www.undp.crimea.ua/img/conten...2009_10-12.pdf
http://www.undp.crimea.ua/img/conten...2010_10-12.pdf
http://www.undp.crimea.ua/img/conten...202011)(5).pdf
http://avaazpress.s3.amazonaws.com/5...m.Poll.GfK.pdf

Quote:
Free and fair referendum?
Let's ask the Crimeans themselves, shall we?

http://www.bbg.gov/wp-content/media/...arch-brief.pdf
http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/05/08/...n-one-country/
http://www.gfk.com/ua/Documents/Pres...FreeCrimea.pdf

All free and fair.

Quote:
No, it was after being invaded by the same power they allegedly so badly wanted to join, observed only by that power, and after the people who might have argued and voted against it had been driven out.

Even if one is to argue that a simple local referendum would be all that is required to leave one country and join another, it doesn't mean that this referendum was valid. It was not, and it matters nothing what someone believes a valid referendum would have resulted in.
Do you have any sort of, you know, evidence for these claims?

ETA: So according to you the Crimeans widely wanted to join Russia for years, then when they actually had the chance they all changed their minds and the referendum results were falsified, and afterwards they all forgot about it again and said the referendum was indeed free and fair? And you want us to just believe you on your word on this? Maybe you're just being too logical for me here

Last edited by caveman1917; 2nd March 2015 at 07:29 AM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 07:17 AM   #154
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
And after enduring a few weeks of media blackout, with only Russian propaganda permitted. The referendum went badly, so they posted fake results. Real results leaked a little bit later.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulrode...or-annexation/

30% turnout, 50% in favor of annexation.

There were no instruments against vote rigging, and it's likely Russian servicemen in Crimea voted as well, plus there was no effective measure against multiple voting. It's likely the pro-Russian sentiment was even lower than that.

McHrozni
Let's take a look at what the council had to say about that
"In particular, speaking about the Crimean referendum, the review authors convey only value judgments of his interlocutors, not appreciating their objectivity and accuracy.

The Council requests that the media does not distort the content of this review."

http://www.president-sovet.ru/struct...eley_kryma.php

Paul Roderick Gregory is a propagandist, and not a very good one at that, as you could easily determine if you cared to fact-check the claims he makes - in this as well as in his other articles.

Last edited by caveman1917; 2nd March 2015 at 07:36 AM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 07:25 AM   #155
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
There is no sense in arguing with these people, if they had any reason whatsoever they would've found out their positions were illogical to the point of absurdity by now. Use the ignore button if they bother you.
Do you know what logic actually is? Or is it just "if I don't like it then it's illogical"? Otherwise you are free to show the "illogical" aspect of my positions.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 07:38 AM   #156
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,769
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Putin is by far the most likely suspect.

From the way this hit was carred out, it was a professional level job,
And in Russia only the State can call on professional hit-men? I think not.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 07:39 AM   #157
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Have you noticed that you guys are contradicting eachother? Both arguing that only 15% of Crimeans voted to join Russia as well as that those who would vote against it had been driven out before the referendum. Did someone mention doublethink? The thing that allows you to notice these things is called "logic", maybe you should look it up.

Last edited by caveman1917; 2nd March 2015 at 07:52 AM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 07:40 AM   #158
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
 
CapelDodger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 22,769
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
That was one of the arguments against Maidan that came from the East, that it's just exchanging one set of crooks for another.
Do Ukrainians in the West feel very much different? I doubt it.
__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898)

God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150
CapelDodger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 07:44 AM   #159
caveman1917
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,224
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
Do Ukrainians in the West feel very much different? I doubt it.
At the time they widely supported the Euromaidan movement and the interim government resulting from it. I've not seen data that suggests a change in those opinions, but it's possible - I've not looked for any either.

Last edited by caveman1917; 2nd March 2015 at 07:46 AM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd March 2015, 07:54 AM   #160
carlitos
"más divertido"
 
carlitos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 17,723
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Yes, a right to self-determination even if they don't want what the West wants? What a concept...

If you think that invasion by a foreign army, forcible annexation, media blackouts and propaganda and rigged elections = "self determination " i don't think that there is anything that will sway you. A Putin apologist as someone said earlier.
carlitos is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 10:50 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
© 2014, TribeTech AB. All Rights Reserved.
This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.