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Tags Russia-Ukraine relations , Ukraine incidents , Ukraine issues , vladimir putin

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Old 20th March 2015, 03:09 PM   #321
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This guy Kolomoiski is really like a comic book villain. Here, that's from the pro-Putschist, Anglo run Kyiv Post: Kolomoisky should be punished over his UkrNafta power play

Originally Posted by Devin Ackles
Early on March 20, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor and billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky dispatched a group of masked men in military fatigues with bulletproof vests and black bags that may have held weapons to the headquarters of UkrNafta in Kyiv. The men blockaded themselves inside for several hours.

Kolomoisky later justified his actions in a highly offensive interview to several journalists outside of UkrNafta’s headquarters, a state-owned company that produces a majority of Ukraine’s oil and a large share of its gas, by saying he was protecting the state enterprise from “Russian saboteurs.” [...]

Some brief background is needed to understand what precisely the dispute between the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast and the Verkhovna Rada to better understand the situation.

Kolomoisky’s Privat Group owns 43 percent of UkrNafta’s shares and his representatives have reportedly repeatedly refused to attend shareholder meetings, thus making a vote impossible under the old law. In addition to this, the state-owned company is run by individuals close to Kolomoisky, a fact that until yesterday may have been disputable, though few have doubted his influence over the company.

The new law effectively returns control over the state-owned company to the state. The government has complained that it has been unable to gather the minimum number of shareholders needed to hold a vote on issues concerning the state-owned company, such as its management, because Privat Group’s shareholders have neglected to attend shareholder meetings. Under the new law, the state will be able to vote without Privat Group’s attendance. [...]

If Kolomoisky succeeds in pressuring the government to repeal the law or maintain his control over the company, the continued ability of oligarchs to directly influence the decisions of Ukraine’s democratically elected authorities will once more be enshrined as a part of its political and economic reality – a reality that Maidan and its supporters have already expended so much energy, and lost so many lives, to consign to the dustbins of history. [...]

In order to demonstrate that it is committed to the rule of law and democracy, Kyiv must act quick and decisively.

Porky, to the rescue!
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Old 20th March 2015, 03:15 PM   #322
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
Oh, instructors are vehicles?
No but the UK 'Saxons' are they were supplied to Ukraine in an deal signed in 2013.

Saxon was designed for units that would have to make long journeys from the UK to reinforce the British Army of the Rhine. it's a lightly armoured wheeled vehicle faster on roads and easier to maintain than a tracked vehicle. Armoured against small-arms fire and shell splinters it can carry up to ten men.
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Old 20th March 2015, 03:22 PM   #323
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Porky, to the rescue!

Hahaha, just breaking:

Originally Posted by Sputnik
According to a statement released on the president's official website Friday evening, a relevant presidential decree reproaches Kolomoiskyi "for violating the rules of professional ethics, an act that defames him as a public servant."

I'm sure he will be heart-broken.
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Old 20th March 2015, 04:30 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
No but the UK 'Saxons' are they were supplied to Ukraine in an deal signed in 2013.

Saxon was designed for units that would have to make long journeys from the UK to reinforce the British Army of the Rhine. it's a lightly armoured wheeled vehicle faster on roads and easier to maintain than a tracked vehicle. Armoured against small-arms fire and shell splinters it can carry up to ten men.
yeah, but those where bought. They aren't foreign anymore.
I was more thinking about humvees, drones and anti artillery radar.
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Old 21st March 2015, 03:16 AM   #325
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
So... are instructors armed groups, mercenaries or weapons?
I think the Russian point 10 reads:

To withdraw all pro-Ukrainian groups and military equipment as well as fighters and mercenaries from Ukraine.

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Old 21st March 2015, 08:33 AM   #326
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New poll about the political mood in the Ukraine. As to be expected, there's not much enthusiasm and/or trust in the institutions. One detail is especially interesting:

Originally Posted by Sputnik
When asked which parties they would vote for if snap elections were held in March, 23.1 percent of respondents stated that they would not participate. Meanwhile, 13.2 percent answered that they would support the Poroshenko Bloc, 8 percent chose Andriy Sadovyi's Self Reliance Party, 5.7 percent picked Oleg Lyashko's Radical Party, 5.6 percent selected the All-Ukrainian Fatherland, 5.3 percent picked the Opposition Bloc, and 4.4 percent chose the Right Sector. Given the country's 3 percent requirement for entering parliament, Arseniy Yatsenyuk's People's Front would not pass in these hypothetical elections, polling at just 2.5 percent. Nearly a quarter of respondents, 24.1 percent, said that it was "difficult to say" who they would vote for.

At the last election Yats wasn't much better in the polls, but suddenly on election day he, what, quadrupled his party's vote and became strongest party beating Porky by a small margin. So there's no need to assume that the hypothetical election wouldn't be as rigged as the real one and Yats wouldn't win again. He's still Nuland's boy, after all.
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Old 21st March 2015, 04:26 PM   #327
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
At the last election Yats wasn't much better in the polls, but suddenly on election day he, what, quadrupled his party's vote and became strongest party beating Porky by a small margin.
It could be partially explained by the low 51% turnout of the elections. Polling at about 8%, assuming they all went to vote, would get them 16% at 50% turnout.
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Old 22nd March 2015, 02:08 PM   #328
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
It could be partially explained by the low 51% turnout of the elections. Polling at about 8%, assuming they all went to vote, would get them 16% at 50% turnout.

No, it can't. % are always of voters, and it's the same for all parties.

Oligarch war is heating up. Seems like Kolomoiski has turned against Kiev and is trying to get away with his own people's republic. "People" being him.
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Old 22nd March 2015, 03:14 PM   #329
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
No, it can't. % are always of voters, and it's the same for all parties.
Polling % are of registered voters whereas election % are of actual voters. Suppose of 1000 registered voters polled 80 say they are going to vote PF (=8%), then 500 of them actually go vote in the elections (turnout of 50%) including those 80, giving election result of 16% for PF. It's not necessarily evidence of foul play, it could be that people intending to vote for PF were more determined to actually go vote when it comes to it. You're missing that poll results and election results are based on different samples, which becomes significant at low turnout as was the case.
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Old 22nd March 2015, 03:26 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Polling % are of registered voters whereas election % are of actual voters. Suppose of 1000 registered voters polled 80 say they are going to vote PF (=8%), then 500 of them actually go vote in the elections (turnout of 50%) including those 80, giving election result of 16% for PF. It's not necessarily evidence of foul play, it could be that people intending to vote for PF were more determined to actually go vote when it comes to it. You're missing that poll results and election results are based on different samples, which becomes significant at low turnout as was the case.

"Registered voters" is something that is not common. I know that it is practice in the USA but I would be hard pressed to name any other country where you have to "register" to vote. For me as a German it frankly is quite a ridiculous idea.
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Old 22nd March 2015, 04:06 PM   #331
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You have to register to vote in the UK. It's done by the household. We get a letter every year reminding us to update the register if anything has changed.
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Old 22nd March 2015, 04:35 PM   #332
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
"Registered voters" is something that is not common.
It is how it's done in Ukraine, but that wasn't my point . Call it whatever you want, the point is that a poll sample consists of "possible voters" (or whatever you want to call them, likely they are just taking a random sample of the population over 18 or something) whereas the election results are based on those that actually went to vote.
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Old 22nd March 2015, 04:44 PM   #333
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You have to take election turnout into account when comparing election results with poll results. Same thing as in Crimea, 96% of voters voted for reunification with Russia but that's 96% of 83% turnout = about 80% of Crimeans, which corresponds with the about 80% of Crimeans wanting reunification as shown by the polls.
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Old 22nd March 2015, 06:24 PM   #334
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I think that 80% number is probably close to accurate, in terms of real population preference, from everything I've read.
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Old 22nd March 2015, 11:24 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
I think that 80% number is probably close to accurate, in terms of real population preference, from everything I've read.
Sure. A survey from 2013 on the matter:

http://www.iri.org/sites/default/fil...30,%202013.pdf

Page 17.
Status quo: 53%
Greater Tatar autonomy within Ukraine: 12%
In Ukraine, with less autonomy: 2%
Annexed to Russia: 23%
Don't know/other: 10%

A year before Russian meddling, there were three pro-Ukrainian voters in Crimea for each pro-Russian voter. The survey is entirely in line with actual results of the referendum, accidentally (?) leaked by Putler's Human Rights council (~30% attendance, ~50% of those in favor).
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulrode...or-annexation/

President’s Human Rights Council mid-point estimate: 55 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 40 percent, 22.5 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.

(...)

We can debate the extent of fraud in the March 16 referendum, but only the Council’s highest estimate just yields the fifty percent turnout ratio normally required for major referendums. What counts is that the Putin regime solemnly announced to the world that 82 percent of the Crimean people voted to join Mother Russia, and many in the West swallowed this whopper. At best, according to Putin’s own council, only 30 percent did.

This is entirely in line with the survey above. Furthermore, Russian own analysis showed the voting was not so much for mother Russia as it was against corruption in Ukraine. It also explains the repression that has been going on in Crimea since the annexation. If you have 80%+ support you don't need to stifle critical voices.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/mark-p-l...mea-1426633467

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Old 22nd March 2015, 11:42 PM   #336
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Thanks for that information. I'm going to read that stuff carefully.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 12:08 AM   #337
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
It is how it's done in Ukraine, but that wasn't my point . Call it whatever you want, the point is that a poll sample consists of "possible voters" (or whatever you want to call them, likely they are just taking a random sample of the population over 18 or something) whereas the election results are based on those that actually went to vote.

k, understood, but while I wouldn't call the sampling "random", the thing is that it's extremely unlikely that a very large amount of undecided voters suddenly decides to vote for a single party while all others remain roughly in the region where they were polled. Even the Netanyahoo thing had people surprised and that's nothing compared to what Yats "achieved".
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Old 23rd March 2015, 12:14 AM   #338
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Same thing as in Crimea, 96% of voters voted for reunification with Russia but that's 96% of 83% turnout = about 80% of Crimeans, which corresponds with the about 80% of Crimeans wanting reunification as shown by the polls.

Indeed. That took some time to explain to people irritated by the propaganda waves of butchered numbers...
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Old 23rd March 2015, 12:23 AM   #339
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A more thorough report on what Russia is doing to Crimea:

https://freedomhouse.org/sites/defau...port_FINAL.pdf

Again, with 80%+ support, there is absolutely no need to resort to such 19th century measures. They're counterproductive if your goal is anything but theft anyway.

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Old 23rd March 2015, 01:04 AM   #340
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btw, the infamous documentary "Crimea - Way back home" is available with English subtitles by now. Lots of evil Putin statements to obsess about...
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Old 23rd March 2015, 01:06 AM   #341
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Even oligarch Bloomberg picked up the Ukrainian oligarch war...
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Old 23rd March 2015, 02:59 AM   #342
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Wow, even Forbes kinda gets it now: One Year After Russia Annexed Crimea, Locals Prefer Moscow To Kiev

Originally Posted by Forbes
The U.S and European Union may want to save Crimeans from themselves. But the Crimeans are happy right where they are.

One year after the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula in the Black Sea, poll after poll shows that the locals there — be they Ukrainians, ethnic Russians or Tartars are all in agreement: life with Russia is better than life with Ukraine.

Little has changed over the last 12 months. Despite huge efforts on the part of Kiev, Brussels, Washington and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the bulk of humanity living on the Black Sea peninsula believe the referendum to secede from Ukraine was legit. At some point, the West will have to recognize Crimea’s right to self rule. Unless we are all to believe that the locals polled by Gallup and GfK were done so with FSB bogey men standing by with guns in their hands. [...]
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Old 23rd March 2015, 04:46 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
btw, the infamous documentary "Crimea - Way back home" is available with English subtitles by now. Lots of evil Putin statements to obsess about...

These are actually only the first five of 14 parts. Here are all parts.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 05:04 AM   #344
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Fascists and Neo-nazis strongly back Putler's war against fascism and neo-Nazism in Ukraine.

http://news.yahoo.com/european-far-m...171138383.html

Is it an irony or just a clear-cut case of schizophrenia?

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Old 23rd March 2015, 03:59 PM   #345
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Here's the Kolomoiski "interview" Devin Ackles called "highly offensive" with English subtitles (the questions are in Ukrainian language but K. chooses to respond in Russian language). They deliberately transport the foulmouthedness so I'll put it into NFSW tags:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

Today's developments here and there. K. is the owner of the Ukraine's largest bank, largest natural resources conglomerate, minor but controlling stock holder in several state-owned energy companies (so far), owner of several airports, aviation companies, the Champions league soccer club of Dnepropetrovsk, its stadium, several TV and Radio stations, employer of Hunter Biden, funded the largest Jewish center in the world (in Dnepropetrovsk as well), and on and on - and has a private army of estimated 15,000 people, a good fraction of them openly fascist Bandera worshippers.

I wouldn't watch a film with a super villain like that if you'd pay me money. Well, at least not if it were branded as anything but a tragic comedy, and if so, I would make sure that the popcorn isn't produced by Poroshenko...
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Old 23rd March 2015, 05:31 PM   #346
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Thanks for that information. I'm going to read that stuff carefully.
You should note that it comes from the International Republican Institute, a USAID-aligned organization that has a tendency to come up with poll results that completely disagree with all the other polls. It also dabbles in coups such as the one in Haiti and the one in Honduras.

For this specific poll, check the unemployment response (50%) with the Ukrainian unemployment figures of Crimea at the time (about 6%, also derived by polling) to get an idea if this was probably a representative poll or more like ordering 50 of them and only publishing the one that suits them most.

As for the council report, this isn't the first time McHrozni tries to pull this one, already debunked earlier in the thread.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 05:55 PM   #347
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I will look closely at that information as well, because the actual pct of Crimeans who favored Russian integration is interesting. I had assumed it was a strong majority, but smaller than what the Kremlin claimed.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 06:06 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
k, understood, but while I wouldn't call the sampling "random", the thing is that it's extremely unlikely that a very large amount of undecided voters suddenly decides to vote for a single party while all others remain roughly in the region where they were polled.
It's not about the undecided voters changing to a single party, it's about part of the decided voters (as polled) not ending up actually voting (low election turnout).

Introduce a measure of "determination" D(A) giving the percentage of people supporting political party A (as polled) that actually end up going to vote (for A). The implicit assumption you're using is that D(A)=D(B)=..., ie that the voter determination is independent of the party they are aligned with.

Let's take an example of a place with 1000 voters and 5 parties (A, B, C, D, E). Before the elections those 1000 voters get polled and the results are N(A)=300, N(B)=200, N(C)=200, N(D)=200, N(E)=100. So the poll results would show A=30%, B=20% etc.

Assume that D(B) = 100% and D(others) = 50%. So when the election comes we have voting in the election as N(A)=150, N(B)=200, N(C)=100, N(D)=100, N(E)=50. Getting a turnout of 600/1000 = 60% with election results A=25%, B=33%, C=17%, D=17%, E=8%.

Party B "jumped" from 20% in the polls to 33% in the elections, winning the elections even though it only polled as second (shared with C and D). This effect is above and beyond any decisions of undecided voters or any voters changing their minds. It becomes significant at low turnouts (as was the case with about 51% in the october election) and with significant differences in "determination" between the parties.

That many "decided voters", as given by the polls, didn't end up voting can be seen by that the polls over all the parties add up to much more than the actual turnout. That the determination for PF was likely higher than the others is because PF was a new party, so anyone answering the poll with PF would already have decidedly changed to it. You wouldn't get people answering the poll with their "standard" party who then ended up not voting at all.

This effect is incidentally why I personally prefer a Crimean-style referendum (no status quo option but validity based on turnout) over a standard-style referendum (including status quo as an option and validity based on relative number of votes) since in the latter case a determined minority can take advantage of the relative lower determinancy of a majority to come out ahead.

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Old 23rd March 2015, 06:16 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
I will look closely at that information as well, because the actual pct of Crimeans who favored Russian integration is interesting.
For reference, the polls that I am aware of I've linked to in post 153 of this thread. Not included is the one by the IRI, for the reasons given above, and the one that gets commonly cited giving 41% support but that is actually asking the Crimeans whether they think the entire Ukraine should join Russia (this one pops up a lot in propaganda pieces where it is misrepresented as to the question actually asked). If you find more please do share them here, it's certainly an interesting question.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 06:16 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
This guy Kolomoiski is really like a comic book villain. :
lol, you want to talk comic book villians? Putin just threatened to nuke Denmark for some damn reason.

Sounds like the botox went to Dear Leader's brain.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 06:27 PM   #351
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Originally Posted by 16.5 View Post
Putin just threatened to nuke Denmark for some damn reason.
He didn't "threaten to nuke Denmark for some damn reason" but said that Danish warships will become targets for Russian nuclear missiles if they (Denmark) become part of the US/NATO missile defence shield. How is this anything else than obvious? Any part of the missile defence shield is of course a nuclear target. You are aware that there's a difference between setting the targets for nuclear missiles and actually nuking something?
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Old 23rd March 2015, 07:53 PM   #352
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
He didn't "threaten to nuke Denmark for some damn reason" but said that Danish warships will become targets for Russian nuclear missiles if they (Denmark) become part of the US/NATO missile defence shield. How is this anything else than obvious? Any part of the missile defence shield is of course a nuclear target. You are aware that there's a difference between setting the targets for nuclear missiles and actually nuking something?
Wow you confirmed everything I just said, and then added some wildly hilarious non sequitur about the difference between threatening someone and actually using nukes.

Let me try! One is insanely stupid, and the other one is actually nuking someone?

"I will nuke you." Classy as Putin's newly shiney taut forehead is taut and shiney.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 08:09 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by 16.5 View Post
Wow you confirmed everything I just said, and then added some wildly hilarious non sequitur about the difference between threatening someone and actually using nukes.
What nonsense. By your reasoning the US is constantly threatening to nuke Russia because some of its missiles are targetted at Russian installations.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 08:12 PM   #354
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Originally Posted by 16.5 View Post
Let me try! One is insanely stupid, and the other one is actually nuking someone?
Try this: "If you do X then I will aim my gun at you". "If you do X then I will shoot you". Apparently you are incapable of understanding the difference between those two.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 08:16 PM   #355
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
What nonsense. By your reasoning the US is constantly threatening to nuke Russia because some of its missiles are targetted at Russian installations.
My reasoning? Putin's minion came out and flat out said that they were targeting Danish ships with nukes.

Out loud. In public. Using words.

Not sure you are 100 percent following that is the mark of a comic book villain.

Well that and Putin's new joker look.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 08:20 PM   #356
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Try this: "If you do X then I will aim my gun at you". "If you do X then I will shoot you". Apparently you are incapable of understanding the difference between those two.
Really? First of all, that is not what you said, second, for reals?

I will aim my gun at you? Who says that?

That is correct, Dr. Evil.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 08:24 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by 16.5 View Post
My reasoning? Putin's minion came out and flat out said that they were targeting Dutch ships with nukes.

Denmark, champ. It's a different country. Try to focus. Bengazi!!!
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Old 23rd March 2015, 08:26 PM   #358
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Originally Posted by 16.5 View Post
My reasoning? Putin's minion came out and flat out said that they were targeting Dutch ships with nukes.
He said "IF Denmark joins the missile defence shield THEN Danish (not Dutch) warships become targets for our nuclear missiles". This is completely expected, the missiles are targetted such as to take down the defence shield. It's not essentially different from that a country that builds a new SAM site will have that site targetted in case of war.
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Old 23rd March 2015, 08:30 PM   #359
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Denmark, champ. It's a different country. Try to focus. Bengazi!!!
Fixed it!

And I was trying to compare the dear leader to a a Danish filled with nuts and bananas!
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Old 23rd March 2015, 08:31 PM   #360
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Originally Posted by 16.5 View Post
Really? First of all, that is not what you said, second, for reals?
First of all, you know what an analogy is, right? Second, you do understand that nuclear missiles are pre-targetted, right?

Quote:
I will aim my gun at you? Who says that?

That is correct, Dr. Evil.
Or someone who would rather not want to do so and is urging the other party not to take the step that would force them to do so.
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