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Tags Australia elections , Australia politics , Julie Bishop , Malcolm Turnbull , Tony Abbott

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Old 21st March 2016, 09:32 AM   #241
Wildy
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Having got the Senate voting reforms passed, Malcolm Turnbull is now pressing ahead with forcing a double dissolution election with the aim of cleaning out the cross benchers from the Senate.


http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politi...20-gnmy2v.html

One can only hope that this strategy back fires. If Turnbull wins control of the Senate then another "work choices" bill will be rushed through.
Probably won't happen. If the polling results are similar to last election then the crossbench will have at least 2 seats held by Xenophon and makes the possibility of smaller parties reaching the senate a lot more likely. I suspect that the possibility of vote exhaustion may also help the smaller parties reach the lowered quota.
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Old 21st March 2016, 09:53 AM   #242
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
Probably won't happen. If the polling results are similar to last election then the crossbench will have at least 2 seats held by Xenophon and makes the possibility of smaller parties reaching the senate a lot more likely. I suspect that the possibility of vote exhaustion may also help the smaller parties reach the lowered quota.
Malcolm Turnbull might have an inflated sense of his own self worth but he is not stupid enough to call a DD if there was no prospect of him gaining a majority in the Senate in his own right. His analysts will have gone over the numbers carefully. There are currently 8 independent Senators (http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_M...te_composition) and most of them would be unlikely to get elected without the preference deals they made before. The coalition only needs another 6 Senators to gain a majority.

Of course, this scheming tactic could backfire. Historically, governments that call early elections don't fare well with the voters and even if the government of the day managed to win a DD election, they still failed to get a majority in the Senate. (The only exception seems to be Sir Robert Menzies in 1951WP).
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Old 21st March 2016, 10:33 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Malcolm Turnbull might have an inflated sense of his own self worth but he is not stupid enough to call a DD if there was no prospect of him gaining a majority in the Senate in his own right. His analysts will have gone over the numbers carefully. There are currently 8 independent Senators (http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_M...te_composition) and most of them would be unlikely to get elected without the preference deals they made before. The coalition only needs another 6 Senators to gain a majority.

Of course, this scheming tactic could backfire. Historically, governments that call early elections don't fare well with the voters and even if the government of the day managed to win a DD election, they still failed to get a majority in the Senate. (The only exception seems to be Sir Robert Menzies in 1951WP).
Well that's the question isn't it? Could they win those seats in a double dissolution. I'd say it might be a bit more of a slog than they think.
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Old 21st March 2016, 10:46 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
Well that's the question isn't it? Could they win those seats in a double dissolution. I'd say it might be a bit more of a slog than they think.
Here's hoping.
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Old 21st March 2016, 11:04 PM   #245
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I predict a maximum of 6 senators elected that do not belong to one of the major parties (That means Labor or LNP). This is a reduction of at least 2. These will be mostly Greens elected. This means that the Greens would hold the balance of power. The current government should also increase their majority in the upper house.
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Old 22nd March 2016, 01:34 AM   #246
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I predict a maximum of 6 senators elected that do not belong to one of the major parties (That means Labor or LNP). This is a reduction of at least 2 12.
ftfy.

You forgot that there are already 10 Green Senators (as well as 8 independents).
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Old 23rd March 2016, 01:20 AM   #247
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This will be with the new Senate ballot rules, right?
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Old 23rd March 2016, 11:50 PM   #248
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
This will be with the new Senate ballot rules, right?
I dare say so but I think that the estimate of 6 Green/other Senators is too low.

In a double dissolution election, a candidate only needs 7.7% of the votes in a state to get elected. This would likely see at least two seats in each state go to the non major parties. (The Greens are obviously hoping to get more than 10 Senators elected under the new voting rules).
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Old 24th March 2016, 03:56 AM   #249
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I don't think we should be assuming that the Greens will lose out on Senators that badly. I think the thing the Greens wouldn't be looking forward to is having nearly all their senate seats up for grabs in the election following a double dissolution. They normally get a lower vote and that means that they will probably get seats in the 7-12 block, meaning they only have a 3 year term.
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Old 24th March 2016, 09:42 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
I don't think we should be assuming that the Greens will lose out on Senators that badly. I think the thing the Greens wouldn't be looking forward to is having nearly all their senate seats up for grabs in the election following a double dissolution. They normally get a lower vote and that means that they will probably get seats in the 7-12 block, meaning they only have a 3 year term.
At the last Senate election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Result...3_%28Senate%29) the Greens got 8.65% of the primary vote. If that result was repeated in a DD then they would get at least 6 Senators with the full 6 year term.
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Old 24th March 2016, 11:04 AM   #251
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That all depends on how many votes are cast. For example if the 2013 NSW results are similar in a future double dissolution then the Greens will pick up their first seat in count 10, the first 6 seats going as an even split between the Liberals and Labor. Note that this does assume that Leyonhjelm picks up enough votes for a quota.

Making the same assumption for SA would mean that they would only get a Senate seat after count 8 with the first 6 seats going an even split between the Liberals, Labor and Xenophon. The next two seats would go to the Liberals and Xenophon.

Tasmania would be similar to NSW under the same assumption only the 9th seat would go to the Greens.

Victoria, 9th seat to the Greens after an uneven 4-2 split between the Liberals and Labor.

Based on just those before preference numbers the Greens would be facing all their senate seats up for election following a double dissolution. For the Greens we'd be looking at a very major setback for them that would take 6 years to recover, when the other set of seats come up for election.

The only reason why I'm not including WA and QLD is quite simply because I'd have to give seats to Palmer and based on the apparent collapse of the party, I can't really use those numbers as an assumption since it'd even wronger than the assumption I've made above.

The fact of the matter is that unless the Greens pick up about 20% of the primary vote in a state in such an election then they're not going to get a 6 year seat in a double dissolution.
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Old 24th March 2016, 11:21 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
That all depends on how many votes are cast. For example if the 2013 NSW results are similar in a future double dissolution then the Greens will pick up their first seat in count 10, the first 6 seats going as an even split between the Liberals and Labor.
The quota in a DD is 7.7%. This means that at 8.65%, a Green candidate would get a quota without needing preferences. Have you got any reference that backs up your claim that the candidate would not be declared elected until after the distribution of the surplus preferences of the elected Labor and Liberal candidates?
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Old 25th March 2016, 12:45 AM   #253
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
Upon studying this link I see that my error was in assuming that a candidate was declared elected as soon as they reached a quota.

The way it actually works is that (provided they have more than a quota) the candidate with the most votes gets elected first and their surplus votes distributed via preferences. Then the candidate with the next highest vote count gets elected and their surplus votes distributed via preferences. This process continues until no remaining candidates have a quota. Then the candidates with the fewest votes are eliminated and their preferences distributed until another candidate reaches a quota.

Under this system, had the NSW results been replicated in a DD election, the first 10 seats would have been allocated in the following order: Liberal, Labor, Liberal, Labor, Liberal, Labor, Liberal, Leyonhjelm, Labor, Greens ... (the final 2 seats would be difficult to pick without the preference whisperers).

So, you are right. The Greens are unlikely to get any Senators elected to 6 year terms. They probably didn't expect Malcolm Turnbull to pull the DD trigger or they didn't do their sums properly. Either way, they're STUPID.
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Old 31st March 2016, 07:01 AM   #254
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To be honest I started double checking sources and got myself thoroughly confused about how the whole system works as well after you challenged me on it.

I'm only right if that's how the system works. But reading more stuff I've come to the conclusion that I'm actually wrong and that the Greens would actually get some six year seats.

I think the problem might be that the ABC's system is a hell of a lot clearer than going to the AEC website, but it doesn't accurately reflect the way the system works.

According to the AEC:

Originally Posted by AEC
Ballot papers are sorted according to which candidate or group has received the number '1' preference on each ballot paper. Candidates who receive the quota, or more, of first preference votes are elected immediately.

As a general rule, when a candidate is elected with a surplus of votes, that surplus is transferred before any exclusion is undertaken.
So using the same NSW data, the count would be for a double dissolution:

CountElected
1Liberal, Labor, Leyonhjelm, Greens
2Liberal, Labor
3Liberal, Labor
4Liberal, Labor

So despite have said you were wrong, I think you were absolutely right.
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Old 31st March 2016, 06:27 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
I think the problem might be that the ABC's system is a hell of a lot clearer than going to the AEC website, but it doesn't accurately reflect the way the system works.

According to the AEC:
A second look at the ABC website for NSW shows that it is not clear which method was used to declare the candidates elected.

Marie Louise Payne got the most #1 votes and got elected immediately.
Bob Carr had the second most #1 votes and also the most votes overall after the distribution of Ms Payne's surplus preferences. So it is not clear which reason was used to declare him elected.

After the distribution of Carr's preferences, there were two more candidates with a quota with the Liberal (John Williams) having more #2 votes than the Labor candidate (Doug Cameron). Again, under either distribution system, Williams would have been declared elected first.
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Old 3rd April 2016, 07:01 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
A second look at the ABC website for NSW shows that it is not clear which method was used to declare the candidates elected.

Marie Louise Payne got the most #1 votes and got elected immediately.
Bob Carr had the second most #1 votes and also the most votes overall after the distribution of Ms Payne's surplus preferences. So it is not clear which reason was used to declare him elected.

After the distribution of Carr's preferences, there were two more candidates with a quota with the Liberal (John Williams) having more #2 votes than the Labor candidate (Doug Cameron). Again, under either distribution system, Williams would have been declared elected first.
However much they would like to, the ABC doesn't actually run Australian Elections.
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Old 3rd April 2016, 07:36 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by Noztradamus View Post
However much they would like to, the ABC doesn't actually run Australian Elections.
What a silly comment. Are you saying that the ABC gave a factually incorrect report?

ETA You are welcome to examine the official results (http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Webs...load-17496.zip) and tell us where the ABC got it wrong.
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Old 7th April 2016, 11:29 PM   #258
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The Bludgertrack has continued to show the decline of the Coalition, but they're still doing way better than they were under Tone.

But this is based on the Newspoll data, which Antony Green mentions uses a different methodology now compared to previous years Newspolls.
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Old 26th April 2016, 01:58 AM   #259
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I had an interesting discussion with my dad the other day. Usually I avoid talking politics with my dad, but this time we actually agreed on something.

It's likely that Turnbull is going to win the election. I hope that once he does so, he will consider himself to have a mandate on his own, rather than being beholden to the party hardliners who put him in to replace Abbott. Hopefully this will mean that he is able to return to his more moderate political stance, and the next Liberal government won't be as nightmarish as the last one.

One thing's for certain - there's no way that Bill Who? can win an election against him.
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Old 26th April 2016, 04:46 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I had an interesting discussion with my dad the other day. Usually I avoid talking politics with my dad, but this time we actually agreed on something.

It's likely that Turnbull is going to win the election. I hope that once he does so, he will consider himself to have a mandate on his own, rather than being beholden to the party hardliners who put him in to replace Abbott. Hopefully this will mean that he is able to return to his more moderate political stance, and the next Liberal government won't be as nightmarish as the last one.

One thing's for certain - there's no way that Bill Who? can win an election against him.
If Turnbull does lose then it would be the first time since 1931 that a party has lost after only one term. Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Australia.

I hope whoever wins gets a decent majority.
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Old 26th April 2016, 05:59 AM   #261
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I wouldn't like the hardliners in the Liberal Party to have a clear majority.

And the other thing is, I really wish the Greens would rein in the crazy end of their party. They're not helping.
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Old 26th April 2016, 09:31 AM   #262
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
It's likely that Turnbull is going to win the election. I hope that once he does so, he will consider himself to have a mandate on his own, rather than being beholden to the party hardliners who put him in to replace Abbott. Hopefully this will mean that he is able to return to his more moderate political stance, and the next Liberal government won't be as nightmarish as the last one.
If Turnbull wins, it's likely to be with a reduced minority and is seems very doubtful that he would win control of the Senate (unless the polls change dramatically).

In that scenario, Turnbull would be in a precarious situation and the hard-liners would be playing him like a fiddle.
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Old 26th April 2016, 02:46 PM   #263
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
If Turnbull wins, it's likely to be with a reduced minority and is seems very doubtful that he would win control of the Senate (unless the polls change dramatically).

In that scenario, Turnbull would be in a precarious situation and the hard-liners would be playing him like a fiddle.
I fear you could be right and Turnbull wins with a reduced majority with the Greens controlling the upper house the most likely outcome of a double dissolution. The Greens would get most of the preferences of the people who do not vote for the major partiesl in the upper house, so do not look for much of an increase in numbers for the major parties.
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Old 26th April 2016, 05:56 PM   #264
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
If Turnbull wins, it's likely to be with a reduced minority and is seems very doubtful that he would win control of the Senate (unless the polls change dramatically).

In that scenario, Turnbull would be in a precarious situation and the hard-liners would be playing him like a fiddle.
Yeah, that's pretty much my major concern.
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Old 27th April 2016, 07:40 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I had an interesting discussion with my dad the other day. Usually I avoid talking politics with my dad, but this time we actually agreed on something.

It's likely that Turnbull is going to win the election. I hope that once he does so, he will consider himself to have a mandate on his own, rather than being beholden to the party hardliners who put him in to replace Abbott. Hopefully this will mean that he is able to return to his more moderate political stance, and the next Liberal government won't be as nightmarish as the last one.

One thing's for certain - there's no way that Bill Who? can win an election against him
.
Completely disagree (also, that's a really annoying and stupid meme). I think Labor are a very good chance.
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Old 28th April 2016, 01:28 PM   #266
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The Bludgertrack just swapped over now giving Labor 50.4% 2PP. If that becomes the election result then we'd see a Liberal victory with a very slim majority.
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Old 28th April 2016, 07:03 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by Damien Evans View Post
Completely disagree (also, that's a really annoying and stupid meme). I think Labor are a very good chance.
I guess we'll see in a couple of months. He at least was able to survive (so far) the Liberals' attack on his union credentials, so that's a good start.
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Old 29th April 2016, 01:39 AM   #268
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Turnbull's latest thought bubble.
Quote:
Malcolm Turnbull's plan to get everyone to work in half an hour slammed as 'laughable'
- - - - -
The Prime Minister will announce the new plan on Friday, promising that no one in any Australian city will have to commute more than half an hour to get to work.

The new Smart Cities plan aims to reshape investment in train lines, roads and other infrastructure.
- - - - -
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/...-as-laughable/

He is starting to look like a dumb version of Tony Abbott.
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Old 29th April 2016, 04:40 AM   #269
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Turnbull's latest thought bubble.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/...-as-laughable/

He is starting to look like a dumb version of Tony Abbott.
I found more detail here http://www.news.com.au/national/poli...e696db113b3a36. That is from 11 March. I suggest it is a long term plan. As in decades. However my link says it is a plan stolen from Labour!

About the only way to get people to work fast is to have very fast intra city trains of some sort. And lots of lines. Very expensive. Plus a few extra things to make this economical.
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Old 29th April 2016, 07:18 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I found more detail here http://www.news.com.au/national/poli...e696db113b3a36. That is from 11 March. I suggest it is a long term plan. As in decades. However my link says it is a plan stolen from Labour!
About the only way to get people to work fast is to have very fast intra city trains of some sort. And lots of lines. Very expensive. Plus a few extra things to make this economical.
That figures. It sounded really stupid
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Old 30th April 2016, 12:17 AM   #271
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
He is starting to look like a dumb version of Tony Abbott.
Except that he's not. He is a very intelligent man and a very clever politician. He is, however, completely under the thumb of the party hardliners, and he knows it. What he is saying is not ridiculous, but it is a bit of pie-in-the-sky idealism.
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Old 30th April 2016, 04:56 AM   #272
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
He is a very intelligent man and a very clever politician.
All the indications so far are that Turnbull has more ego than brains. He has already humiliated himself by announcing major policy initiatives only to back down almost immediately without so much as a whimper. In fact, some politicians have complained that they’d had hangovers that lasted longer than the PM’s policies. (http://www.news.com.au/finance/econo...7b45e313447175).

He has clearly miscalculated big time over the DD election. Now that the Senate has called his bluff, he has no room to maneuver. With nothing to offer the voters at the coming election, he has had to resort to Abbott style tactics and attack the opposition. John Howard always refused to go to the polls early because he knew that voters punish governments who do that. Turnbull is ignoring that wisdom at his peril.

I am prepared to wait until the budget before making a final judgement but I seriously doubt that I will change my mind about him.
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Old 30th April 2016, 12:03 PM   #273
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Turnbull a fool, possibly.
Only a fool would attempt to sell fraudband as being superior and cheaper than Labor's real NBN. The chooks have landed on Malcolm's mess.
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Old 30th April 2016, 10:13 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by wombatwal View Post
Turnbull a fool, possibly.
Only a fool would attempt to sell fraudband as being superior and cheaper than Labor's real NBN. The chooks have landed on Malcolm's mess.
That should be a major election issue. "Liberals failed to deliver on broadband." However I doubt if it would be as the people are too stupid to remember.

I WANT FASTER BROADBAND.

Edit. At least the Liberals commitments are preserved forever https://web.archive.org/web/20160312...lan-better-nbn LOL (to the Liberals, not my comment).

Last edited by rjh01; 30th April 2016 at 10:18 PM.
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Old 3rd May 2016, 02:24 AM   #275
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Wow, just saw the first "alarmed not alert" (sic) type ad I have seen for ages. Maybe an election is coming
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Old 3rd May 2016, 03:59 AM   #276
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Budget
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Old 3rd May 2016, 10:57 PM   #277
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I like the "it's a mystery" section. It's as if the government doesn't know what they're doing.

So do you guys think Turnbull will be going to the GG soon?
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Old 4th May 2016, 12:24 AM   #278
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
I like the "it's a mystery" section. It's as if the government doesn't know what they're doing.

So do you guys think Turnbull will be going to the GG soon?

Quote:
After the House is dissolved or expires, writs for election must be issued within 10 days ... The election must be held on a Saturday between 33 and 58 days after the writs have been issued.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Australia


The last sitting day is Friday 12 May. So we will know the date of the election by Sunday 22 May. Could be as early as Friday 12 May. This is the last sitting day of parliament
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Sitting_Calendar
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Old 6th May 2016, 03:40 AM   #279
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I'm pretty sure that it has to be before May 11, because you can't hold a double dissolution election if there's only 6 months before you're supposed to have a regular one.
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Old 6th May 2016, 05:20 AM   #280
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
I'm pretty sure that it has to be before May 11, because you can't hold a double dissolution election if there's only 6 months before you're supposed to have a regular one.
The election date will be Saturday 4 July. You are also right the dissolution of parliament must happen at least 6 months before the expiry of parliament

The constitution says
Quote:
But such dissolution shall not take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives by effluxion of time.
Ref: http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/c...ca430/s57.html


Quote:
The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 45th Parliament of Australia. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the 44th Parliament, and must be held on or before 14 January 2017.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_A...deral_election

That means the Government has until 14 July to call the election. Or is that hold the election? The wording appears to be ambiguous.
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