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Old 14th June 2019, 06:49 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Did it leak after the first explosion? Losing some cargo might have made it sit higher in the water than it did when the bomb was attached.
Are we talking about liquid cargo?

I don't know what the consequences would be for that when the hole is below the waterline. Does it then fill with seawater until some kind of equilibrium is reached?

I don't know if we ever saw leaking flammable liquid. Did video show the ocean surface on fire, or some kind of slick?
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Old 14th June 2019, 06:53 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
I think that 'object' is part of the docking mechanism for loading and discharging cargo.
Most of the process is automated and requires sxact positioning.
It's too big and high to be a covertly placed limpet mine.
It looks like this is the starboard side of Kokuka Courageous, but previous photographs (example 1, example 2) don't seem to show anything there. The black triangle that is supposed to be a mine on the colour image is clearly wider than the white vertical marking in between the pipe marks, which itself is clearly wider than the individuals seen in the video. As you say, far too big and too high up to be a limpet mine.

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Old 14th June 2019, 07:31 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Are we talking about liquid cargo?

I don't know what the consequences would be for that when the hole is below the waterline. Does it then fill with seawater until some kind of equilibrium is reached?

I don't know if we ever saw leaking flammable liquid. Did video show the ocean surface on fire, or some kind of slick?
Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
It looks like this is the starboard side of Kokuka Courageous, but previous photographs (example 1, example 2) don't seem to show anything there. The black triangle that is supposed to be a mine on the colour image is clearly wider than the white vertical marking in between the pipe marks, which itself is clearly wider than the individuals seen in the video. As you say, far too big and too high up to be a limpet mine.
To reply to William: This ship seemed to be carrying methanol. I don't think that would form a slick or burn once on the water. It would just dilute itself into the seawater pretty quickly and result in drunk blind fish.

Once holed, a tank would drain until the lrvel of the tank was equal to the water level.
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Old 14th June 2019, 07:36 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
To reply to William: This ship seemed to be carrying methanol. I don't think that would form a slick or burn once on the water. It would just dilute itself into the seawater pretty quickly and result in drunk blind fish.

Once holed, a tank would drain until the lrvel of the tank was equal to the water level.
yeah, but the tanks are compartmentalized, so one leak wouldn't drain the entire ship. I doubt that enough could have leaked to significantly increase buoyancy.
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Old 14th June 2019, 07:40 AM   #85
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A few thousand tons of burning methanol would be spectacular, look up BLEVE

Video of the burning ship looks to be the Naptha burning.
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Old 14th June 2019, 07:41 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
To reply to William: This ship seemed to be carrying methanol. I don't think that would form a slick or burn once on the water. It would just dilute itself into the seawater pretty quickly and result in drunk blind fish.

Once holed, a tank would drain until the lrvel of the tank was equal to the water level.
So then to get this big raging fire the explosion/hole has to be above the waterline?

If true, then the limpit mines were always above the waterline.
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Old 14th June 2019, 07:41 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
yeah, but the tanks are compartmentalized, so one leak wouldn't drain the entire ship. I doubt that enough could have leaked to significantly increase buoyancy.
It would need a good few thousand tons to go over the side to make a visible difference, that would be very obvious, for a start it would need a significant hull breach.
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Old 14th June 2019, 07:42 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
So then to get this big raging fire the explosion/hole has to be above the waterline?

If true, then the limpit mines were always above the waterline.
Not necessarily.
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Old 14th June 2019, 07:47 AM   #89
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The hole on the left.... was there a raging fire going on there? Because the hull doesn't look very much discolored like there was a fire. Was this an explosion hole with no fire?

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Old 14th June 2019, 07:50 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
The hole on the left.... was there a raging fire going on there? Because the hull doesn't look very much discolored like there was a fire. Was this an explosion hole with no fire?

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/asse...xlarge-169.jpg
This isn't the ship that caught fire. I think there's a lot to suggest that this photo has been altered.
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Old 14th June 2019, 07:56 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
This isn't the ship that caught fire. I think there's a lot to suggest that this photo has been altered.
Big red arrows and the text floating on the water were what tipped me off. The photo has definitely been altered.
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Old 14th June 2019, 08:12 AM   #92
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Different photo. I guess it could be altered or Photoshopped, but it looks legit. The mines seem to have been placed well above the waterline with no attempt to conceal. They seem to be placed too high for a diver. Maybe they were put there by a smaller boat alongside. Maybe it was sabotage and a crew member placed them there while hanging from a rope ladder or something?
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Old 14th June 2019, 08:15 AM   #93
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Rope ladder? for real?
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Old 14th June 2019, 08:16 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Rope ladder? for real?
I have no idea. If you were a crew member and wanted to place mines on the hull about 6 feet above the waterline, what would you use?
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Old 14th June 2019, 08:21 AM   #95
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Video of Iranian Ship removing the unexploded mine during the cover of darkness.

When the one didn't go off, they had to retrieve it in order to remove evidence.

Looks like a US drone was there for that recovery mission.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=a9dpZ_1560479241
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Old 14th June 2019, 08:26 AM   #96
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The boss of the Kokuka company has just given a press conference saying that it wasn't a mine, but that the crew saw "flying objects" and two attacks from those objects happened in a period of three hours. Citing RT, but SPIEGEL reports the same (adding the three hours information).

Originally Posted by RT
The Japanese company that owns the ‘Kokuka Courageous’ tanker has said its crew spotted “flying objects” before the attack in the Gulf of Oman, contradicting US claims that the vessel was damaged by a naval mine.

Yutaka Katada, president of Kokuka Sangyo, told reporters on Friday that sailors on board the ill-fated oil tanker observed “flying objects” just before the incident in which the ship caught fire and was badly damaged. The giant vessel was hit twice, first near the engine room and then on its starboard side.

He suggested that those flying objects could have been bullets, and called reports of striking a mine “false.” Both points at which the ship was damaged were above her waterline, which couldn’t be so if it had struck an underwater mine. [...]
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Old 14th June 2019, 08:28 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I have no idea. If you were a crew member and wanted to place mines on the hull about 6 feet above the waterline, what would you use?
A priest of whatever religion I subscribed to.

And something to carry the mine onto the ship without crewmates getting suspicious.

I still am not sure how Iranian personnel removing a mine is evidence of anything. If Iran did it they'd want the evidence removed, but if they didn't, they'd want the evidence to see if they could publicly identify the actual perpetrators.
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Old 14th June 2019, 08:29 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Different photo. I guess it could be altered or Photoshopped, but it looks legit. The mines seem to have been placed well above the waterline with no attempt to conceal. They seem to be placed too high for a diver. Maybe they were put there by a smaller boat alongside. Maybe it was sabotage and a crew member placed them there while hanging from a rope ladder or something?
There is still the issue of unfeasible size of the mine black triangle.

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Old 14th June 2019, 08:31 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Video of Iranian Ship removing the unexploded mine during the cover of darkness.

When the one didn't go off, they had to retrieve it in order to remove evidence.

Looks like a US drone was there for that recovery mission.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=a9dpZ_1560479241
The video does not show anything remotely like the black triangle in the colour picture. Even allowing for the different perspective, the black triangle is closer to where the load line should be than being in line with the large white marking higher up. Whatever they are doing in the video, they're not doing it where the black triangle supposedly is.





You can see in the video frame that the load line is directly below the left side of the third pipe mark to the right of the large white "T" shape, while the black triangle is between the second and third pipe marks.

This shows where the black triangle should be, if it actually existed when the video was shot:


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Old 14th June 2019, 08:38 AM   #100
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Let's zoom out and take a look at the bigger picture:

assuming there is sufficient proof to be found that Iran is responsible (which I doubt very much) ...

... how would any military intervention be the appropriate response?



Sure - the owners of the ships could seek damages, families of the victims too.

But any kind of military attack would only make the shipping lanes less safe.
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Old 14th June 2019, 08:53 AM   #101
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Iran is blaming the "B-Team" - hadn't heard that term before.

Originally Posted by FARS News
[... Iranian Foreign Minister] Zarif, in a tweet today, rebuffed Pompeo's allegations, saying they were part of the “sabotage diplomacy” pushed by the "B-Team".

The B-Team is a reference to hawkish US national security adviser John Bolton, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

In a follow-up Twitter post, Zarif said, “I warned of exactly this scenario a few months ago, not because I'm clairvoyant, but because I recognize where the #B_Team is coming from.” [...]

Bolding mine.
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Old 14th June 2019, 08:55 AM   #102
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Don't harbor pilots use rope Ladders to get on and off ships at sea?

Could the flying objects seen by the crew have been dones or other aircraft, either watching to see if the limpet mines (if there really were any) go off, or just because there were already heightened tensions in the area which might result in increased military air traffic?

ETA: It seems unlikely that the ship's crew saw flying bullets.

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Old 14th June 2019, 09:00 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Let's zoom out and take a look at the bigger picture:

assuming there is sufficient proof to be found that Iran is responsible (which I doubt very much) ...

... how would any military intervention be the appropriate response?



Sure - the owners of the ships could seek damages, families of the victims too.

But any kind of military attack would only make the shipping lanes less safe.
It's the age-old conundrum of warfare.

One guy starts making things less safe, and says he'll keep making things less safe until you give him what he wants.

You can give him what he wants, and sometimes this is even the best response, even though it rankles to submit to bullies.

You can refuse to give him what he wants, and see how much less safe he can make things before one of you gives up.

You can start making things less safe for him, until he gives up his demands, but that's likely to make things much less safe all around for a while. In its quest to make things safer for China in the first half of the 1900s, the US goaded Japan into making things a lot less safe all around the Pacific Rim, and then the both of them *really* got into it. But the long-term result was more safety for everyone in the region.

---

So yeah. If Iran's decided to start making things less safe in the Gulf, do we fight back, or not? Is it worth it to make things a lot less safe temporarily, in order to shut down Iran's strategy of violence as a negotiating tactic?

There's a lot to be said for the clear message, "making things less safe for us is only going to cost you more than you ever wanted to pay, and we don't mind paying in the currency of our own safety for a while, to bring that fact home to you."
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Old 14th June 2019, 09:06 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
ETA: It seems unlikely that the ship's crew saw flying bullets.

Sounds like something lost in translation. I checked their website for a statement but it looks like something from the 90s.
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Old 14th June 2019, 09:07 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's the age-old conundrum of warfare.

One guy starts making things less safe, and says he'll keep making things less safe until you give him what he wants.

You can give him what he wants, and sometimes this is even the best response, even though it rankles to submit to bullies.

You can refuse to give him what he wants, and see how much less safe he can make things before one of you gives up.

You can start making things less safe for him, until he gives up his demands, but that's likely to make things much less safe all around for a while. In its quest to make things safer for China in the first half of the 1900s, the US goaded Japan into making things a lot less safe all around the Pacific Rim, and then the both of them *really* got into it. But the long-term result was more safety for everyone in the region.

---

So yeah. If Iran's Trump decided to start making things less safe in the Gulf, do we fight back, or not? Is it worth it to make things a lot less safe temporarily, in order to shut down Iran's Trump's strategy of violence as a negotiating tactic?

There's a lot to be said for the clear message, "making things less safe for us is only going to cost you more than you ever wanted to pay, and we don't mind paying in the currency of our own safety for a while, to bring that fact home to you."
FTFY
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Old 14th June 2019, 09:09 AM   #106
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If these were flying projectiles then the aim was outstanding. Nothing landed on the deck. Unless they were aiming for the deck. Then the aim was off.
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Old 14th June 2019, 09:15 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
If these were flying projectiles then the aim was outstanding. Nothing landed on the deck. Unless they were aiming for the deck. Then the aim was off.
I blame Trebuchet
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Old 14th June 2019, 09:18 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
FTFY
Anything to avoid actually having a discussion, I suppose. There's stuff we could talk about, maybe even agree on, but at least better understand about each other's positions. I tried to get that started, but I guess we're going to do this crap instead.
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Old 14th June 2019, 09:20 AM   #109
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Sorry, but it is really hard to see Iran as the escalating aggressor, when it is the Trump administration that went from breaking a treaty to sanctioning everything Iranian it could touch to massively arming its competitors in the region to threatening open war.

Iran has been remarkably constraint through all of this.
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Old 14th June 2019, 09:36 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Sorry, but it is really hard to see Iran as the escalating aggressor, when it is the Trump administration that went from breaking a treaty to sanctioning everything Iranian it could touch to massively arming its competitors in the region to threatening open war.

Iran has been remarkably constraint through all of this.
Okay, sure. But let's zoom out and take a look at the bigger picture:

Assuming the blame for who started it can be laid at America's feet (a debatable point, but that may not matter for this question) ...

... how would any attack on shipping in the Gulf be the appropriate response?

Sure - the policymakers in Iran could seek resolution through diplomatic means.

But any kind of military attack would only make the shipping lanes less safe.
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Old 14th June 2019, 09:40 AM   #111
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We have no solid evidence that the attack came from Iran.
Maybe we should wait for some before we beat the drums of war?


Note: it is well within the realm of possibility that some Iran-affiliated terror group is responsible. But we don't know yet, and what Pompeo has said so far doesn't fit with the known facts.
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Old 14th June 2019, 09:40 AM   #112
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How much longer are US warmongers going to get away with this garbage?
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Old 14th June 2019, 09:49 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
We have no solid evidence that the attack came from Iran.
Maybe we should wait for some before we beat the drums of war?
Oh, absolutely. You and I agree 100% on this point.

But your post that I replied to explicitly stipulated that the attack came from Iran, and argued from that basis. I addressed that argument, without disputing the stipulation.

I don't think it's fair for you to now try to dismiss the argument by removing the stipulation.

Quote:
Note: it is well within the realm of possibility that some Iran-affiliated terror group is responsible. But we don't know yet, and what Pompeo has said so far doesn't fit with the known facts.
Noted.
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Old 14th June 2019, 09:51 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by JihadJane View Post
How much longer are US warmongers going to get away with this garbage?
Oh hey Jane. Long time no see. How's it going?
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Old 14th June 2019, 10:10 AM   #115
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
[ct mode] Obviously a false flag so Trump can go to war with Iran. [/ct mode]
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I blame Trebuchet
That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
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Old 14th June 2019, 10:42 AM   #116
Captain_Swoop
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The boss of the Kokuka company has just given a press conference saying that it wasn't a mine, but that the crew saw "flying objects" and two attacks from those objects happened in a period of three hours. Citing RT, but SPIEGEL reports the same (adding the three hours information).
Daily Beast piece on it this.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/japane...ttack?ref=home
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Old 14th June 2019, 10:48 AM   #117
Checkmite
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The boss of the Kokuka company has just given a press conference saying that it wasn't a mine, but that the crew saw "flying objects" and two attacks from those objects happened in a period of three hours.

Citing RT, but SPIEGEL reports the same (adding the three hours information).
Quote:
The Japanese company that owns the ‘Kokuka Courageous’ tanker has said its crew spotted “flying objects” before the attack in the Gulf of Oman, contradicting US claims that the vessel was damaged by a naval mine.

Yutaka Katada, president of Kokuka Sangyo, told reporters on Friday that sailors on board the ill-fated oil tanker observed “flying objects” just before the incident in which the ship caught fire and was badly damaged. The giant vessel was hit twice, first near the engine room and then on its starboard side.

He suggested that those flying objects could have been bullets, and called reports of striking a mine “false.” Both points at which the ship was damaged were above her waterline, which couldn’t be so if it had struck an underwater mine. [...]
I think that Katada doesn't understand the Americans' claim, which is not that the ship struck an underwater mine, but that a mine which had been magnetically attached to the hull detonated.

I'm not sure I need to explain how unlikely it is that the crew of the ship actually saw incoming bullets or artillery shells.
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Old 14th June 2019, 10:48 AM   #118
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
If these were flying projectiles then the aim was outstanding. Nothing landed on the deck. Unless they were aiming for the deck. Then the aim was off.
Why would it be hard to hit the side of a tanker with anything?
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Old 14th June 2019, 10:49 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by Molinaro View Post
WHAT!?

Please explain how you have excluded the scenario where it was the Iranian boat that was being observed and they watched it approach the tanker and continued watching to see what it was doing.

And please remember that "because you really really really want it to be true" is not an explanation.
As skeptics we should separate out evidence from prejudice. If you buy in to the mythos of brave revolutionary guards defending the Islamic revolution from vicious crusaders; the fact that a Japanese vessel was attacked when the Japanese PM was visiting Iran easily leads to the conclusion they were acting to protect the ship and get evidence about who the provocateurs are.

If however you buy into the mythos that the evil Iranian navy has shot down a US airliner killing innocent US citizens, that the Iranian secret service overthrew the democratic government of the US, that Iranian client states have planted car bombs on the street of Washington killing US citizens then it is entirely understandable you would think that these scoundrels are trying to cover up their nefarious activities attacking allies of the US.
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Old 14th June 2019, 10:53 AM   #120
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
You can see in the video frame that the load line is directly below the left side of the third pipe mark to the right of the large white "T" shape, while the black triangle is between the second and third pipe marks.
Incorrect; the black triangle is directly below the second pipe mark in a straight line, the same as the load line is directly below the third pipe mark. The "base" of the triangle is straight down from the left side of the second pipe mark.

The "black triangle" appears to be the shadowed side of a triangular object that protrudes from the hull, not the front-facing side of a wider object. The lighting would not make sense if that were the case.
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