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Old 19th July 2018, 10:19 AM   #2961
trustbutverify
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
This short squeeze is an ugly sight.


it has a long way to go, maybe 8800.

Rat poison.
You wouldn't know a short squeeze from a strip tease.
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Old 30th July 2018, 02:18 PM   #2962
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Consistent logarithmic growth? Or lying with statistics?

Crypto Hedge Fund Pantera Capital Has a Lifetime Return of 10,000 Percent
Quote:
Commenting on bitcoin’s bull and bear cycles over Pantera’s five years of existence, Morehead noted that — contrary to the cryptocurrency’s linear price movements — BTC has experienced very consistent logarithmic growth since 2010.

Unlike linear charts, which measure an asset’s value in pure dollar terms, with equal distance between price levels, logarithmic charts plot data such that there is equal distance between equivalent percentage changes.

By this metric, bitcoin is far less volatile than its reputation, and its long-term trend line, Morehead said, suggests that the bitcoin price will end 2018 trading near $21,000 — a new all-time high — and break out to $67,500 in 2019.
Look at the graph below, which uses a wide range logarithmic scale to severely compress the visual effect of price variations. Ignoring the speculative extrapolation into the future, can you see 'very consistent' logarithmic growth and 'far less' volatility? Me neither. But who ya gonna believe - a high-flying hedge fund manager, or your lying eyes?
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Old 1st August 2018, 01:57 AM   #2963
Samson
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
You wouldn't know a short squeeze from a strip tease.
Only got to 8506 from 7473 when posted.
But that is a solid leg up for the short squeeze.
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Old 1st August 2018, 04:06 AM   #2964
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
From what I can see, this breakdown is structural, and cryptos are like pet rocks.
We will never see 6000 again, 800 is first target, but bitcoin is worthless, so 800 is also an absurd overvaluation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gASQ1_HEEHA
Yeah
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Old 1st August 2018, 12:47 PM   #2965
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Only got to 8506 from 7473 when posted.
But that is a solid leg up for the short squeeze.
But you were predicting exactly opposite movement, so...

Looking at the long-term price we can see that despite all the 'random' one-off events that supposedly affect the price it is still bouncing with consistent regularity. Yesterday it looked like the latest bounce had reached its peak, and today's drop seems to confirm it.

Hopefully you bought when it bottomed out. If so, Sell Bitcoin now!
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Old 1st August 2018, 01:43 PM   #2966
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More Lying with Statistics?

BITCOIN HAS A HUGE POTENTIAL TO GROW
Quote:
a review from surveyors Gallup and appointed by banking monster Wells Fargo has uncovered [that]... only 2% of financial specialists say they as of now possess bitcoin, and under 1% plan to get it sooner rather than later. While most financial specialists say they have no enthusiasm for consistently purchasing bitcoin, around one of every four (26%) say they are fascinated by it, however, won’t be buying it anytime soon.
So is it over for Bitcoin? No! You see, the tiny market penetration and lack of enthusiasm just means that it has a huge 'potential' to grow!

And that's not all. Take a look at this graph of trading volume. You might think it shows a declining trend, but you would be wrong. The long term trend since Bitcoin's inception is upwards. Well below the peak and mostly declining since then, but still upwards overall. In fact since trading volume started at zero, even it drops to less than $1 a year it will always be upwards!

So no matter what happens to Bitcoin it will always shine - provided you interpret the statistics 'correctly'.
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Old 1st August 2018, 04:05 PM   #2967
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Don't you get tired of making up these stories?

The price will go up tomorrow unless it falls in which case it will go down. You have absolutely no idea which way the price will go - either in the short term or the long term.
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Old 1st August 2018, 04:12 PM   #2968
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Well personally I agree with Roger on both short term and long term trends. But then I'm usually wrong about these things ..
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Old 1st August 2018, 04:19 PM   #2969
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Well personally I agree with Roger on both short term and long term trends.
Why? You know which orifice he is pulling his "forecasts" from don't you?
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Old 1st August 2018, 05:09 PM   #2970
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Why? You know which orifice he is pulling his "forecasts" from don't you?
the ear canal!
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Old 1st August 2018, 05:34 PM   #2971
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Only got to 8506 from 7473 when posted.
But that is a solid leg up for the short squeeze.
Or maybe you have no idea where bitcoin (or any other instrument) is going... and start muttering about a "short squeeze" whenever it's behavior verifies that.
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Old 1st August 2018, 07:49 PM   #2972
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Well personally I agree with Roger on both short term and long term trends. But then I'm usually wrong about these things ..
You should apply the George Costanza contrarian method to your trading. And split the profits with me.
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Old 2nd August 2018, 05:07 AM   #2973
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Or maybe you have no idea where bitcoin (or any other instrument) is going... and start muttering about a "short squeeze" whenever it's behavior verifies that.
Well except the muttering was followed by a short squeeze of , er 12 percent.
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Old 2nd August 2018, 08:03 AM   #2974
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I've been following quite a lot of news sources on Bitcoin, and some of the most trusted "neutral" observers seem to think that the current bounce was mostly instigated by Tethers, and some possible manipulation from a few exchanges.

However, it is undeniable that there was some increase in volume on the climb to $8.5k. This appears to have been caused by several online rumours that the SEC was about to approve the Winklevoss ETF. If you read Bitcoiner blogs and forums, they have been obsessed with an ETF approval as it would herald the much anticipated institutional money inflow, which is a needed precursor to their moon shot.

However, the SEC refused the ETF, citing among other things that market manipulation could exist. This led to the current mini-crash of 1k (price at GDAX is currently $7.5k).

There are some other bearish indicators in the short term. Volume continues to be very low, and commercial adoption is almost non-existent. There have been a couple of bad reports on blockchain adoption, with many corporate experiments being discontinued or shot down. Most importantly, popular interest continues to drop, so it is possible that we could be back to 6k territory if things stay the same.

I'm sure there will be a few more bounces, particularly as other ETF decisions are expected in the next few months, but I would agree with a general downward trajectory, at least in the next months. The problem is that Bitcoin is bloody awful as a currency.
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Old 4th August 2018, 12:59 AM   #2975
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Interesting price moves in the last couple of days, price was clearly going south, it hit $7.3k yesterday, and then a bit announcement about NYSE interest managed to halt the slide, but no sign of FOMO money jumping in. BTC Reddit was expecting a huge bounce, but it is indication that the public aren't interested.
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Old 4th August 2018, 04:02 AM   #2976
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Originally Posted by LlamaDrama View Post
Interesting price moves in the last couple of days, price was clearly going south, it hit $7.3k yesterday, and then a bit announcement about NYSE interest managed to halt the slide, but no sign of FOMO money jumping in. BTC Reddit was expecting a huge bounce, but it is indication that the public aren't interested.
I think psion is winning.
We have an industry that capitalises at 150 billion, however you slice or dice it, and there is creeping uptake institutionally, globex and so on.
It is obscene, irrational and ugly.
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Old 5th August 2018, 01:40 AM   #2977
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I think psion is winning.
We have an industry that capitalises at 150 billion, however you slice or dice it, and there is creeping uptake institutionally, globex and so on.
It is obscene, irrational and ugly.
A few announcements here and there are made evidently for PR purposes, but almost nothing ever becomes concrete. I imagine NYSE saying in 6 months "we looked at it and we're not interested".

Interestingly, the announcement hasn't stopped the current slide, we're back under $7k ($6.9k at the time of writing).

Another unregulated exchange has gone under, and some of the Bitconnect people have now been sub-subpoenaed and may face prosecution soon. I think we may hit $6.5k again.

I'm sure there will be other bounces though, the market is so unstable it's laughable, it takes nothing to move the price up or down a few hundred dollars.
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Old 5th August 2018, 10:25 PM   #2978
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Bitcoin is of no interest except entertainment to me. It was almost $20K last time I thought about it and now I see down to $7K.

I don't do one-stock or one-commoddity investing, and bitcoin is useless as money to me. It is interesting how the fad in crypto-currency had such a meteoric history.

Seems to me it had its genesis in the underground trade economy. Still today, I understand that you can make untraceable purchases with bitcoin, no doubt in my mind the NSA is running the very things supposedly outside the purview of government.
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Old 7th August 2018, 05:24 PM   #2979
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Bitcoin Posts Solid Gains to Break Above $7,000


is trading around $7,118 at press time, up around 2.5 percent on the day. After several faltering attempts to break past the $7,000 threshold yesterday, the leading cryptocurrency has today seen a sustained uptick as of very early trading hours. Today’s growth has not yet pushed the coin’s weekly price change back into the green, however, which still remains at around an 8 percent loss. On the month, Bitcoin is now up almost 9 percent.


(Headline and article posted 6 hours ago)



https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitco...oins-see-green


Now, a few hours later, it is reading at around $6,600.


I can not see it ever replacing fiat currency with the sort of swings that happen on a daily, even hourly basis. From 10:00AM this morning (my time) it quickly dropped over $10 per minute and reached a low of $6,551.


Disclaimer: I have no interest in Bitcoin other than as an interested onlooker who has been following the price trends for a number of months now.


Norm
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Old 7th August 2018, 05:43 PM   #2980
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Originally Posted by fromdownunder View Post
I can not see it ever replacing fiat currency with the sort of swings that happen on a daily, even hourly basis.
Welcome to the bitcoin forum.

As you go through the posts in this thread, you will find two other major impediments to using bitcoin as a currency:
  • The volume of transactions is limited: If too many people try to do transactions with bitcoin then the transaction fees rise rapidly.
  • Conversion between bitcoin and fiat is risky (and can be difficult): In this wild wild west environment, it can be difficult to find a bitcoin exchange you can trust.
These problems have been under heavy discussion for many years.

BTW don't make the same mistake that many others have made (and some still do) of trying to predict a price of bitcoin in the future. I suspect that those who predict $100K by the end of the year will end up looking as foolish as those who predice $0 by the end of the year (and I may end up looking foolish just for saying this ).
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Old 7th August 2018, 08:00 PM   #2981
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Thanks for the welcome psion10. It was actually following this thread that got me interested in monitoring bitcoin and related articles in the first place. Plus a history of working with statistics in a previous life.


I have no intention of predicting anything, and indeed the article I linked to above showed an "expert opinion" who presumably studies and charts bitcoin movements regularly was proven wrong within six hours. Horribly wrong.


In addition, as a Stamp Collector for over 50 years, and an Admin. on a Stamp Board, I am often asked what is the best way to invest in stamps. The best way is, of course, don't. It is far too risky trying to second guess the next big thing. It's just a hobby with sometimes, but not always, good financial benefits, and the late 70's/early '80's Boom bankrupted many dealers down to their last pair of socks.


But that is a separate discussion.



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Old 8th August 2018, 09:24 AM   #2982
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Well here is one real use for bitcoin, donating to nazis.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billyba.../#749bb6069ac6

So to properly make bitcoin work all we need is for more nazis to take power, after all "Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have long been associated with the far right and other extremists around the world, due to their relative anonymity and ease of use. The U.S. white nationalist Richard Spencer called bitcoin the “currency of the alt-right”."

So when you think bitcoin think nazis.
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Old 8th August 2018, 09:51 AM   #2983
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
So when you think bitcoin think nazis.
Nazis also sleep in beds.

So when you think beds, think nazis.
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Old 8th August 2018, 10:57 AM   #2984
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I looked at the Bitcoin graph and saw a series of red lines all down.

Serious drop. Such a plummet could start an exit rush.

Here in South Africa, they are promoting crypto big time. The dizzy dame says "I am scared of all this technical stuff, but this site is so easy to buy, sell and trade."
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Old 8th August 2018, 12:57 PM   #2985
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
I looked at the Bitcoin graph and saw a series of red lines all down.

Serious drop. Such a plummet could start an exit rush.
Perhaps, or perhaps that 'series of red lines all down' just indicates the end of another bounce. Unless there is a serious change of mood I expect them to continue.

Many bitcoiners are expecting a big rally before the end of the year, and are probably HODLing until then. Barring calamity I think it will happen, but will it be enough to meet their expectations? If not then we might see the price collapse in January.

This year may be your last chance to make big money out of it, so don't delay - buy Bitcoin today!
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Old 8th August 2018, 01:19 PM   #2986
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
So when you think bitcoin think nazis.
The Nazis also used Zyklon B to gas the Jews. So when you think about murdering someone with a cyanide-based pesticide, think Bitcoin! Due to its anonymity the authorities won't be able to trace the purchase back to you, and they will think the Nazis did it!
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Old 9th August 2018, 08:07 PM   #2987
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Could Bitcoin become worthless in a single day?

Yale economist: Here's how likely it is that bitcoin will become worthless
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By studying the price data for bitcoin from 2011 to 2018, along with that of Ripple's XRP and Ethereum's ether from the newer currencies' inceptions in 2012 and 2015 respectively, Tsyvinski and Liu were able to calculate the probability that the price of a cryptocurrency would drop to zero in a day.

"The current implied daily disaster probability is about 0.4 percent for Bitcoin, 0.6 percent for Ripple, and 0.3 percent for Ethereum,"

To give context, Tsyvinski and Liu also calculated chances of government-backed world currencies failing (essentially being worth zero U.S. dollars): The chance the Euro would become worthless is 0.009 percent, the Australian dollar is 0.003 percent, and the Canadian dollar measures 0.005 percent, Tsyvinski tells the YaleNews.

So bitcoin's 0.4 percent probability may sound low, but it is a "massive" risk when compared to other traditional currencies, Tsyvinski explains.
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Old 9th August 2018, 10:43 PM   #2988
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Perhaps, or perhaps that 'series of red lines all down' just indicates the end of another bounce. Unless there is a serious change of mood I expect them to continue.

(snip)[/hilite]

You are probably right. There are signs the drop is easing.
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Old 10th August 2018, 01:45 AM   #2989
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post

Quote:
However, it's important to remember that its value can fall all the way back to zero. In fact, there is a 0.4 percent chance bitcoin will become worthless, according to a new report by two Yale University economists.
Unfortunately, this report is behind a paywall so we can't tell how these figures were arrived at.

To put it in context, a probability of 0.4% of the price falling to zero in a single day would imply a fall to zero once every 250 days on average. That doesn't seem to be borne out by the price charts.

The other comparisons are Euro at 0.009% (11111.11 days or 30 years), AUD at 0.003% (33333.33 days or 91 years) and CAD at 0.005% (20000 days or 55 years). I don't think we have enough empirical data to make those conclusions.
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Old 10th August 2018, 02:26 AM   #2990
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I can't post links yet, but you should look at what happened to OKEx, another unregulated exchange, they had a person attempting to margin trade just under 500 million dollars, and liquidated as prices dropped. They had to claw back money from other users as the futures trading losses are "socialized" amongst other traders.

How would anyone do margin trading in this unregulated market beats me, it's insane.
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Old 10th August 2018, 03:30 AM   #2991
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Originally Posted by LlamaDrama View Post
How would anyone do margin trading in this unregulated market beats me, it's insane.
If you borrow money to trade in bitcoin then that is what you are and you deserve what you get.

Bitcoin doesn't protect anybody from their own stupidity. Anybody who takes sensible precautions should be ok provided that they can financially withstand the frequent price shocks that bitcoin is subject to.
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Old 10th August 2018, 09:54 AM   #2992
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
If you borrow money to trade in bitcoin then that is what you are and you deserve what you get.

Bitcoin doesn't protect anybody from their own stupidity. Anybody who takes sensible precautions should be ok provided that they can financially withstand the frequent price shocks that bitcoin is subject to.
It's like you're simultaneously saying you're foolish if you gamble, and not to gamble what you can't afford to lose. Both are kind of useless platitudes.
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Old 10th August 2018, 09:57 AM   #2993
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Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
It's like you're simultaneously saying you're foolish if you borrow to gamble, and not to gamble what you can't afford to lose.
ftfy.

Is there something wrong in reminding people that bitcoin is not some miracle investment?
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Old 11th August 2018, 12:22 AM   #2994
PartSkeptic
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Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
It's like you're simultaneously saying you're foolish if you gamble, and not to gamble what you can't afford to lose. Both are kind of useless platitudes.

My father was a lowly construction foreman who played poker with the wealthy owners of the horse betting outlet. In his early days, a few years after his marriage, he signed an IOU for a massive bet on one hand and lost. The next week the collectors came. They took everything. The cars, the furniture, the appliances, the clothes and even my Moms engagement ring.

She left him and took us with (we were two and four years old). In three weeks he had won it all back, and arrived to pick us up in a big shiny new car, and gave my Mom a big new diamond engagement ring. The apartment was fully furnished.

She made him promise never to borrow to gamble. He never did after that.

Mind you, it was not gambling. Except for that one stunt, he always won at the end of the 24-hour sessions. He gave my Mom the cheques and he kept the cash.

Now bitcoin - that was a gamble in the early days that paid off for some. Now it is fools gold. Looks shiny but is worthless.
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Last edited by PartSkeptic; 11th August 2018 at 12:24 AM.
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Old 11th August 2018, 01:26 AM   #2995
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Now it is fools gold. Looks shiny but is worthless.
It's always different this time.
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Old 11th August 2018, 02:01 AM   #2996
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
My father was a lowly construction foreman who played poker with the wealthy owners of the horse betting outlet. In his early days, a few years after his marriage, he signed an IOU for a massive bet on one hand and lost. The next week the collectors came. They took everything. The cars, the furniture, the appliances, the clothes and even my Moms engagement ring.

She left him and took us with (we were two and four years old). In three weeks he had won it all back, and arrived to pick us up in a big shiny new car, and gave my Mom a big new diamond engagement ring. The apartment was fully furnished.

She made him promise never to borrow to gamble. He never did after that.

Mind you, it was not gambling. Except for that one stunt, he always won at the end of the 24-hour sessions. He gave my Mom the cheques and he kept the cash.

Now bitcoin - that was a gamble in the early days that paid off for some. Now it is fools gold. Looks shiny but is worthless.
Playing cards for money is always gambling.
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Old 11th August 2018, 11:18 PM   #2997
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Playing cards for money is always gambling.

Technically yes.

But when a guy is so good and his opponents not so good (and very rich) it could be called taking candy from a baby.

He played for about 15 years, and it was a great source of income. I asked why they let him play? He said that he made sure he kept up an entertaining conversation, moaned when he losing, said he was just getting back his losses when winning, and kept his winnings out of sight.

Afterward, he would go out to the betting stalls and make a big deal of betting on horses and entertaining the betting public. He only bet a portion of his winnings because betting on horses is a losing gamble. He said they wanted him there because he was the one to try to beat. It is all psychology.

He was one of those "larger than life" characters and a legend in construction in Southern Africa.
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Old 13th August 2018, 05:17 AM   #2998
Eddie Dane
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Technically yes.

But when a guy is so good and his opponents not so good (and very rich) it could be called taking candy from a baby.

He played for about 15 years, and it was a great source of income. I asked why they let him play? He said that he made sure he kept up an entertaining conversation, moaned when he losing, said he was just getting back his losses when winning, and kept his winnings out of sight.

Afterward, he would go out to the betting stalls and make a big deal of betting on horses and entertaining the betting public. He only bet a portion of his winnings because betting on horses is a losing gamble. He said they wanted him there because he was the one to try to beat. It is all psychology.

He was one of those "larger than life" characters and a legend in construction in Southern Africa.
Dammit. Your dad was/is like that one scene in Casino that shows how it all ticks behind the scenes, rolled into one person and without the overhead of running a Casino.
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Old 13th August 2018, 11:32 PM   #2999
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Headed down again after struggling to recover.
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Old 13th August 2018, 11:39 PM   #3000
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Headed down again after struggling to recover.
Fat lady practicing scales back stage....
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