ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Social Issues & Current Events
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old Yesterday, 10:30 PM   #481
Civet
Muse
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 734
Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Sorry, but

-I suspect these people are there for jobs
-Don't cost welfare
-Have a low crime rate
-Are not permanent residents with a higher birthrate than the locals.
-Are not involved in terrorism
-Don't hold street protests declaring that 'Christianity will take over'
-Do not warrant the country to be converted into a surveillance state and the loss of privacy and freedoms.
I'm pretty sure UAE also doesn't have birthright citizenship, so they're not a role model I want countries like the UK and US to follow. I also know that they've done some pretty big roundups of illegal aliens.
Civet is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Yesterday, 10:57 PM   #482
McHrozni
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 9,730
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Several points:

-Left-wing parties do indeed also get increased support under such circumstances. There's the growth of the FN in France but also the growth of France Insoumise, Golden Dawn in Greece and Syriza, etc. The two usually go together.
No doubt, but the very popular and extremely populist governments of Poland and Hungary are anything but left wing.

Quote:
-Far-right populists may employ rhetoric against austerity to garner support, usually expressed as a form of anti-EU nationalism. However once in power they continue the same policies or even harsher. This has been the case since the start, when Italian and German fascism employed rhetoric of the "strong state" but once in power embarked on (the first) great privatization campaigns.
All populist lie more than usual for politicians. It is a valid observation, but it doesn't bring anything to the debate.

Quote:
-Far-right populists will tend to scapegoat people as the cause of those declines in socio-economic conditions, ie "the refugees are taking all your money and that's why there isn't enough money for social spending anymore." This is mostly the case in Belgium, including such campaigns by most mainstream media here.
All populists scapegoat, the only difference is who they scapegoat. Far-right populists scapegoat foreigners of one brand (EU) or another (immigrants). Far-left populists scapegoat businesses, corporations, the wealthy and so on. Scapegoating is a staple of populism and, with populism being empty on the inside, the only way it can gather meaningful amount of popular support.

Quote:
-Lastly, you should be careful with unemployment rate figures. In Belgium over the past couple of years unemployment rates have dropped markedly, however that's because people were getting thrown off en masse from receiving unemployment benefits. The net result being that those people still don't have jobs, are now much poorer than they used to be, but the official unemployment rates have dropped indeed.
'kay, that's a good point. However ...

Polish employment has been rising steadily for the past 13 years. Average wage has been rising since before 2000.

https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/employment-rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/wages

Hungarian employment rate has been rising for the past 5 years, it was steady for several years before that. Hungarian wages have been rising since at least 1998.

https://tradingeconomics.com/hungary/employment-rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/hungary/wages

This is not consistent with a collapsing socio-economic situation, but with a slowly improving one.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Yesterday, 11:13 PM   #483
McHrozni
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 9,730
Originally Posted by Civet View Post
I'm pretty sure UAE also doesn't have birthright citizenship, so they're not a role model I want countries like the UK and US to follow. I also know that they've done some pretty big roundups of illegal aliens.
Their citizenship laws are quite strict.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emirati_nationality_law

You need to have lived there legally for 30 years, earn a living, "maintain good reputation", have no criminal record and have good knowledge of Arabic. The limit is reduced to 7 years if you're an Arab from a neighboring state. The limit is waived if you've performed honorable service to the country.

Plus unless you come from a neighboring Arab state, you can't stand for elections even once you do get citizenship. Naturalized women who gained citizenship after a marriage lose it immediately if they marry a non-UAE national.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; Yesterday at 11:20 PM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Yesterday, 11:28 PM   #484
caveman1917
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 4,370
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Far-left populists scapegoat businesses, corporations, the wealthy and so on.
Scapegoating is something different from correctly identifying.

Quote:
Polish employment has been rising steadily for the past 13 years. Average wage has been rising since before 2000.

https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/employment-rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/wages

Hungarian employment rate has been rising for the past 5 years, it was steady for several years before that. Hungarian wages have been rising since at least 1998.

https://tradingeconomics.com/hungary/employment-rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/hungary/wages

This is not consistent with a collapsing socio-economic situation, but with a slowly improving one.
Average wage, like any other average as a measure of central tendency in these matters, is meaningless. If I have 10 people who each make 100$ then the average wage is 100$. If I take the wages of 9 of those people and give it to 1, and add a dollar, then we have a 9 people making 0$ and 1 person making 1001$ giving an increased average wage. Yet I don't think those 9 people are going to be happy with that, even if the average wage has indeed gone up.

Employment rate also has issues. Take Germany, a couple of years ago they introduced the 0-hours contract. You have a work contract for 0 hours, so you don't actually work or get paid or anything, but you're not unemployed...you should've seen those unemployment rates drop like crazy.

Why not take more direct statistics, such as poverty which directly measure the purchasing power of people? I think you'll find that it's rising. And, after all, the thesis of the discussion is the effect of those circumstances on peoples' political inclinations, so it makes a lot more sense to use statistics which directly measure peoples' circumstances. A person who got thrown off unemployment benefits may not count anymore as "unemployed" according to "official" methodology, but that ain't gonna stop him from voting for some far-right populist because he doesn't know better than to blame refugees or something for his situation.
__________________
"Ideas are also weapons." - Subcomandante Marcos
"We must devastate the avenues where the wealthy live." - Lucy Parsons
"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin

Last edited by caveman1917; Yesterday at 11:33 PM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Yesterday, 11:41 PM   #485
McHrozni
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 9,730
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Scapegoating is something different from correctly identifying.
No doubt. The same could be said for far-right populists, with equal merit.

Quote:
Average wage, like any other average as a measure of central tendency in these matters, is meaningless.
Sure, that too is a good point. However, GINI index in Poland peaked in 2004 and has slowly declined since.

https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/...x-wb-data.html

Hungary had a roller-coaster, but GINI index is well below the peak. It is rising slowly, with meaningful dips.

https://tradingeconomics.com/hungary...x-wb-data.html

Quote:
Employment rate also has issues. Take Germany, a couple of years ago they introduced the 0-hours contract. You have a work contract for 0 hours, so you don't actually work or get paid or anything, but you're not unemployed...you should've seen those unemployment rates drop like crazy.
Maybe. But if this explained the rising employment numbers there would have to be a corresponding rise in GINI index, which we do not see.

Quote:
Why not take more direct statistics, such as poverty which directly measure the purchasing power of people? I think you'll find that it's rising. And, after all, the thesis of the discussion is the effect of those circumstances on peoples' political inclinations, so it makes a lot more sense to use statistics which directly measure peoples' circumstances. A person who got thrown off unemployment benefits may not count anymore as "unemployed" according to "official" methodology, but that ain't gonna stop him from voting for some far-right populist because he doesn't know better than to blame refugees or something for his situation.
The numbers article cites are consistent with small shifts that happen all the time, all over the world. It's not ideal, but it's not a collapsing socio-economic situation by any stretch of the definition.

You see, relative poverty in Poland is holding steady overall.

https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/...n-wb-data.html

So is in Hungary, the worst was a jump of 2.5 percentage points in 2010.

https://tradingeconomics.com/hungary...n-wb-data.html

While the situation is not perfect or even particularly good, this is not consistent with a collapsing socio-economic situation in the society either.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; Yesterday at 11:45 PM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 12:27 AM   #486
caveman1917
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 4,370
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
No doubt. The same could be said for far-right populists, with equal merit.
No it couldn't, it's pretty ridiculous to blame refugees for budget cuts in social spending.

Quote:
Maybe. But if this explained the rising employment numbers there would have to be a corresponding rise in GINI index, which we do not see.
No there shouldn't, the GINI index is based on income and not on legal status as either "employed" or "unemployed".

Quote:
The numbers article cites are consistent with small shifts that happen all the time, all over the world. It's not ideal, but it's not a collapsing socio-economic situation by any stretch of the definition.

You see, relative poverty in Poland is holding steady overall.

https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/...n-wb-data.html

So is in Hungary, the worst was a jump of 2.5 percentage points in 2010.

https://tradingeconomics.com/hungary...n-wb-data.html

While the situation is not perfect or even particularly good, this is not consistent with a collapsing socio-economic situation in the society either.
I never claimed it is collapsing, I said that it is declining. Furthermore, I wonder how that data accounts for increased remissions from Poles working elsewhere in the EU.
__________________
"Ideas are also weapons." - Subcomandante Marcos
"We must devastate the avenues where the wealthy live." - Lucy Parsons
"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 01:03 AM   #487
McHrozni
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 9,730
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
No it couldn't, it's pretty ridiculous to blame refugees for budget cuts in social spending.
Why? Taking care of refugees costs money, which has to come from somewhere.

Note, I'm not saying we shouldn't do it, I'm saying the scapegoating coming from the far-right is as silly as the scapegoating coming the left-wing.

Quote:
No there shouldn't, the GINI index is based on income and not on legal status as either "employed" or "unemployed".
This is precisely why we should see a rise in GINI index if the increasing official employment was a statistical trick and the benefits of rising GDP were limited to the rich.

Quote:
I never claimed it is collapsing, I said that it is declining.
You mentioned both deteriorating and collapsing.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...&postcount=464

Situation in Poland and Hungary is neither. Furthermore the populists in power of those countries are right-wing populists, not left-wing populists, as one would expect to arise from a country with collapsing socio-economic situation On top of that they're incumbents, who don't gain from deteriorating anything. Deteriorating socio-economic situation explains FI in France and Five star movement in Italy, but it flies in the face of the popularity of Fidesz, Jobbing and PiS, as evidenced by statistics. An improving socio-economic situation plus the xenophobia they cultivate does explain the support for those parties rather well though.

I'm not saying those parties are good for their respective countries, on the contrary, they're destroying them from within. I'm saying their popularity is based on their ability to deliver on socio-economic front thus far. That doesn't even begin to cover the damage they're doing to their societies elsewhere, but you shouldn't criticize them for being bad on something they actually deliver. Credibility matters.

Quote:
Furthermore, I wonder how that data accounts for increased remissions from Poles working elsewhere in the EU.
No, it doesn't. That's a separate statistic, you want GNI for that (GDP + remittances + international aid and such). I won't cite it for a simple reason - any increase in remittances would only serve to support my theory further anyway. If Poland is improving without remittances and remittances increased, any statistic that includes remittances would be only better and never worse than one without them.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; Today at 01:11 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 01:26 AM   #488
caveman1917
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 4,370
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Why? Taking care of refugees costs money, which has to come from somewhere.

Note, I'm not saying we shouldn't do it, I'm saying the scapegoating coming from the far-right is as silly as the scapegoating coming the left-wing.
Because the increased cost of refugees is next to nothing compared to the increased cost of corporate welfare and tax evasion. They are clearly not of "equal merit" if one correctly identifies the beneficiaries for almost all of the budget cuts whereas the other blames people who get practically none of it.

You do know what "scapegoating" means, right?

Quote:
This is precisely why we should see a rise in GINI index if the increasing official employment was a statistical trick and the benefits of rising GDP were limited to the rich.
Not necessarily, only under certain assumptions which may very well not hold. If we're talking about the German 0-hour contracts, your income doesn't change, you're still entitled to the full benefits (you're essentially entitled to (40 - n) / 40 of benefits where n is the length of your workweek), you merely count for being employed (ie having an employment contract) - that's all that really changes.

Quote:
You mentioned both deteriorating and collapsing.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...&postcount=464

Situation in Poland and Hungary is neither.
I said collapsing in the 1990's, which is fairly accurate and was the case generally for the period in former Eastern-Block places.

Quote:
No, it doesn't. That's a separate statistic, you want GNI for that (GDP + remittances, basically). I won't cite it for a simple reason - any increase in remittances would only serve to support my theory further anyway. If Poland is improving without remittances and remittances increased, any statistic that includes remittances would be only better and never worse than one without them.
Not if the fraction of the population which goes to work abroad is significant, which for Poland is about 10% of its population IIRC. Given that it's usually the poorer fractions of society which do so, it amounts to underestimating poverty if you don't account for this. It would be the same error as declaring poverty to decrease because a certain neighbourhood has increased income, but it only being because poor people were driven out to somewhere else with richer people moving in.
__________________
"Ideas are also weapons." - Subcomandante Marcos
"We must devastate the avenues where the wealthy live." - Lucy Parsons
"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 01:45 AM   #489
McHrozni
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 9,730
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Because the increased cost of refugees is next to nothing compared to the increased cost of corporate welfare and tax evasion.
So are the benefits to anyone other than refugees.

Quote:
Not necessarily, only under certain assumptions which may very well not hold. If we're talking about the German 0-hour contracts, your income doesn't change, you're still entitled to the full benefits (you're essentially entitled to (40 - n) / 40 of benefits where n is the length of your workweek), you merely count for being employed (ie having an employment contract) - that's all that really changes.
'kay

Is there any relevance of that to Poland and Hungary?

Quote:
I said collapsing in the 1990's, which is fairly accurate and was the case generally for the period in former Eastern-Block places.
Oh sure, but that collapse was stopped and reversed by 2000 if not a couple of years before that. PiS first won elections in 2005, Fidesz in 2010.

The said collapse would explain parties that were elected to power during the collapse or immediately after it, but not over five years and two elections after it ended.

Quote:
Not if the fraction of the population which goes to work abroad is significant, which for Poland is about 10% of its population IIRC. Given that it's usually the poorer fractions of society which do so, it amounts to underestimating poverty if you don't account for this. It would be the same error as declaring poverty to decrease because a certain neighbourhood has increased income, but it only being because poor people were driven out to somewhere else with richer people moving in.
The number of poor people also reduces by the number of people who now work abroad. It doesn't mean the drop in poverty is due to good government policy - quite the opposite - but the poverty still drops if the poor people move to greener pastures.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; Today at 01:47 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 01:58 AM   #490
caveman1917
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 4,370
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
So are the benefits to anyone other than refugees.
Not at all. The capitalist class benefits massively. Just as an example, a couple years ago large corporations were made tax-exempt in Belgium, which is paid for by budget cuts in social services. These transfers amount to orders of magnitude more than transfers towards refugees.

Quote:
'kay

Is there any relevance of that to Poland and Hungary?
No, just pointing out possible errors with your use of employment statistics to support your argument.

Quote:
Oh sure, but that collapse was stopped and reversed by 2000 if not a couple of years before that. PiS first won elections in 2005, Fidesz in 2010.

The said collapse would explain parties that were elected to power during the collapse or immediately after it, but not over five years and two elections after it ended.
In that post I was referring to the rise of the far-right in 1990's Eastern Europe.

Quote:
The number of poor people also reduces by the number of people who now work abroad. It doesn't mean the drop in poverty is due to good government policy - quite the opposite - but the poverty still drops if the poor people move to greener pastures.
Exactly my point. If a sufficiently large number of poor people go work in the rest of the EU, they'd still be in poverty but due to the difference in purchasing power can at the same time support their families at home such that those families would keep above the poverty line. Your statistic would show decreasing poverty, even though the socio-economic condition of everyone involved deteriorated such that they'd be incentivized to express political preference for either the far-left or the far-right.
__________________
"Ideas are also weapons." - Subcomandante Marcos
"We must devastate the avenues where the wealthy live." - Lucy Parsons
"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin

Last edited by caveman1917; Today at 01:59 AM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 02:05 AM   #491
McHrozni
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 9,730
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Not at all. The capitalist class benefits massively. Just as an example, a couple years ago large corporations were made tax-exempt in Belgium, which is paid for by budget cuts in social services. These transfers amount to orders of magnitude more than transfers towards refugees.
Were they made tax-exempt because of refugees?

Quote:
No, just pointing out possible errors with your use of employment statistics to support your argument.
Sure. Can you quote any actual errors, or are you just discussing theoretical problems that could exist, but don't?

Quote:
In that post I was referring to the rise of the far-right in 1990's Eastern Europe.
And I'm arguing that collapse is a no-starter for the present debate and rise of the far-right populism in the past decade or so.

Quote:
Exactly my point. If a sufficiently large number of poor people go work in the rest of the EU, they'd still be in poverty but due to the difference in purchasing power can at the same time support their families at home such that those families would keep above the poverty line. Your statistic would show decreasing poverty, even though the socio-economic condition of everyone involved deteriorated such that they'd be incentivized to express political preference for either the far-left or the far-right.
Would it? I see no reason to believe that the socio-economic conditions of those receiving the remittances would deteriorate further once remittances started flowing. Can you support that in some way?

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; Today at 03:00 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 03:04 AM   #492
caveman1917
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 4,370
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Were they made tax-exempt because of refugees?
No. What a strange question.

Quote:
Sure. Can you quote any actual errors, or are you just discussing theoretical problems that have no basis in reality?
It's up to you to support your use of said statistics.

Quote:
And I'm arguing that collapse is a no-starter for the present debate and rise of the far-right populism in the past decade or so.
Maybe not collapse, but generally deteriorating, sure. And why the singular focus on current-day Poland and Hungary? Even if your argument works, the best you'd get out of it is that you may have found an outlier.

Quote:
Would it? I see no reason to believe that the socio-economic conditions of those receiving the remittances would deteriorate further once remittances started flowing. Can you support that in some way?
You're asking the wrong question. Is changing a condition from "dad works and we have enough money" to "dad has to be away from home for months at a time to work his ass off so that we keep from being in abject poverty" conducive to making people express far-left or far-right political preferences? The answer would be yes.
__________________
"Ideas are also weapons." - Subcomandante Marcos
"We must devastate the avenues where the wealthy live." - Lucy Parsons
"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 03:12 AM   #493
McHrozni
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 9,730
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
No. What a strange question.
Yeah, I agree. The statement that capitalists receive massive benefits was a rather strange reply to the claim help to refugees only helps the refugees

Quote:
It's up to you to support your use of said statistics.
I believe I did so, none of the concerns raised appear to have been valid for the cases presented.

Quote:
Maybe not collapse, but generally deteriorating, sure. And why the singular focus on current-day Poland and Hungary? Even if your argument works, the best you'd get out of it is that you may have found an outlier.
Because Poland and Hungary are ruled by hugely popular right-wing populists, who came to power while both countries were doing fine economically.

They fly in the face of the claim that deteriorating socio-economic situation is a necessary prerequisite for a rise in populism.

Quote:
You're asking the wrong question. Is changing a condition from "dad works and we have enough money" to "dad has to be away from home for months at a time to work his ass off so that we keep from being in abject poverty" conducive to making people express far-left or far-right political preferences? The answer would be yes.
No. The condition changes from "dad works his ass off and we live in abject poverty" to "dad has to be away from home for months at a time to work his ass off so that we keep from being in abject poverty". Is that conductive to make people express far-left or far-right political preferences? More so than the initial condition?

I'm decidedly unsure. Could you support your thesis in some way?

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; Today at 03:14 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 03:34 AM   #494
caveman1917
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 4,370
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Yeah, I agree. The statement that capitalists receive massive benefits was a rather strange reply to the claim help to refugees only helps the refugees
I'll consider your claim about the far-left's identification being of "equal merit" to the far-right's scapegoating refuted then. Feel free to retract it.

Quote:
I believe I did so, none of the concerns raised appear to have been valid for the cases presented.
You did no such thing. All you've done is basically said: "here are the official unemployment figures."

Quote:
Because Poland and Hungary are ruled by hugely popular right-wing populists, who came to power while both countries were doing fine economically.
That latter part remains to be established.

Quote:
They fly in the face of the claim that deteriorating socio-economic situation is a necessary prerequisite for a rise in populism.
Nobody claimed that it is a necessary prerequisite, I did claim they are correlated and tend to occur together though. Again, all you can get from this line of argument is an outlier - which shouldn't be surprising given that you're clearly cherry-picking a datapoint rather than sampling randomly.

And that's even assuming you'll manage to show your case that those "prerequisites" are indeed absent.

Quote:
No. The condition changes from "dad works his ass off and we live in abject poverty" to "dad has to be away from home for months at a time to work his ass off so that we keep from being in abject poverty". Is that conductive to make people express far-left or far-right political preferences? More so than the initial condition?

I'm decidedly unsure. Could you support your thesis in some way?
No, it changes from "dad works his ass off to keep us from living in abject poverty" to "dad works his ass off and must be away for months at a time to keep us from living in abject poverty." Dad might, for instance, have gotten laid off and found no other income source than going to work abroad. Something which could very well incline people to express far-left or far-right political preferences.
__________________
"Ideas are also weapons." - Subcomandante Marcos
"We must devastate the avenues where the wealthy live." - Lucy Parsons
"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin

Last edited by caveman1917; Today at 03:35 AM.
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 03:54 AM   #495
McHrozni
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 9,730
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
You did no such thing. All you've done is basically said: "here are the official unemployment figures."
Yup, and added GDP, employment and GINI figures.

Which ones are still missing?

Quote:
That latter part remains to be established.
You did not present any evidence whatsoever the two countries are deteriorating socio-economically. All you posted was an extremely short article on the rise of extreme poverty in Poland, which came after PiS was already in power.

You also shift the burden of proof unreasonably. Please demonstrate Fidesz and PiS came to power as a result of decaying socio-economic conditions.

Quote:
Nobody claimed that it is a necessary prerequisite, I did claim they are correlated and tend to occur together though.
I disagree.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...7#post11895897

However I think you'll find that the growth of the far-right has pretty much no relation to immigration, but is based on deteriorating socio-economic conditions.

Quote:
No, it changes from "dad works his ass off to keep us from living in abject poverty" to "dad works his ass off and must be away for months at a time to keep us from living in abject poverty." Dad might, for instance, have gotten laid off and found no other income source than going to work abroad.
Sure, in some cases it could mean that. But if that was a major factor the employment figures would have to fall as well, which didn't happen. Employment figures rose throughout

Note I say employment figures, i.e. the number of people employed, not unemployment figures, which wouldn't move in the described scenario.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 04:16 AM   #496
caveman1917
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 4,370
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Yup, and added GDP, employment and GINI figures.

Which ones are still missing?
Adding more things which don't support your argument doesn't suddenly make them support your argument.

Quote:
You did not present any evidence whatsoever the two countries are deteriorating socio-economically. All you posted was an extremely short article on the rise of extreme poverty in Poland, which came after PiS was already in power.

You also shift the burden of proof unreasonably. Please demonstrate Fidesz and PiS came to power as a result of decaying socio-economic conditions.
I have no such burden because I've never claimed that. I did claim that the rise of far-right populism is correlated with deteriorating socio-economic circumstances, and that it is the basis for the FN's rise in France.

Quote:
I disagree.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...7#post11895897

However I think you'll find that the growth of the far-right has pretty much no relation to immigration, but is based on deteriorating socio-economic conditions.
We were talking about France. Don't quote-mine.

Quote:
Sure, in some cases it could mean that. But if that was a major factor the employment figures would have to fall as well, which didn't happen. Employment figures rose throughout

Note I say employment figures, i.e. the number of people employed, not unemployment figures, which wouldn't move in the described scenario.
Does someone who works abroad count as "employed"? What, exactly, is the statistic you use made up of?
__________________
"Ideas are also weapons." - Subcomandante Marcos
"We must devastate the avenues where the wealthy live." - Lucy Parsons
"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin
caveman1917 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 06:00 AM   #497
Craig B
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 20,392
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Almohades represented a major state within the Islamic world, about as major as Ferdinand and Isabella represented in Christian world in 1492. If Ferdinand and Isabella are to be mentioned in judgment of Christianity, Almohades should be too in judgment of Islam.

Your pick, I'm fine either way. As I said, I don't have any particular interest in defending Christianity, beyond the fact it simply doesn't compare to Islam when it comes to producing evil.

McHrozni
As I have cited, the unstable Almohad state speedily collapsed. It did not follow ordinary Muslim doctrines regarding treatment of adherents of other religions, as I have also cited.

And I most certainly do not accept that Ferdinand and Isabella represent some particularly valid form of Christianity which must be used as a standard of judgement of that religion. In fact, I have stated the opposite.

So please try again.
Craig B is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Social Issues & Current Events

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 08:48 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
2014, TribeTech AB. All Rights Reserved.
This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.