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Old 14th February 2017, 05:34 AM   #201
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It means the Governor of the Bank of England won't have to keep writing the letters to the Chancellor apologising for failing to meet the target and explaining what he's going to do about it. Or did they abandon that rule because they failed for so long it was getting embarrassing?
Uh, no.
He hasn't had to do that since the October low.
And it doesn't look like he'll have to do that for a while, either. Well, unless inflation breaks 3%.
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Old 14th February 2017, 06:16 AM   #202
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
George Osborne has warned he would be forced to introduce an emergency Budget with tax hikes and spending cuts if the UK votes to leave the European Union.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/eu...warn-emergency
To be fair that was not really a lie.

You will recall following the brexit vote the Bank of England plunged an extra £170bn into the economy.

If that had not been done the same money could had come from an emergency budget

By way of an example of how that money could have been raised by other means
1p Increase in the basic rate of tax £3.9bn
Cut all persoanl allowances by 10% £9.7bn
Increase personal and Busienss NI contributions by 1p £8.6bn
Increase VAT by 1% £6bn

Those small changes would have brought in £28.2bn. I am sure other tax rises and cuts could have made up the remaining £141.8bn.
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Old 14th February 2017, 06:21 AM   #203
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
One at a time please.
On you go then. Start at the top.
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Old 14th February 2017, 06:24 AM   #204
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
On you go then. Start at the top.
I don't think he will.

you'll also get a lot of equivocation about what was a lie and what was expert opinion that either hasn't come to pass because of actual actions or which were, what he will consider, lucky guesses.


This is the problem with democracy, even the woefully informed, working from the school of 'my dad said' and with a doctorate from 'the daily mail said', get a vote.
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Old 14th February 2017, 06:28 AM   #205
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
On you go then. Start at the top.
Okay

Top one. Not a lie. Tell me when you're ready for the second one.
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Old 14th February 2017, 06:33 AM   #206
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
I don't think he will.

you'll also get a lot of equivocation about what was a lie and what was expert opinion that either hasn't come to pass because of actual actions or which were, what he will consider, lucky guesses.


This is the problem with democracy, even the woefully informed, working from the school of 'my dad said' and with a doctorate from 'the daily mail said', get a vote.
When the chancellor of the exchequer, and a previous chancellor get together on a platform and tell you that in the days immediately following a leave vote an emergency tax raising budget will be held.

And then there is no emergency budget.

Now remain supporters can claim this was not a lie. But if they do then it shows that they don't understand the English language.
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Old 14th February 2017, 06:47 AM   #207
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
I don't think he will.

you'll also get a lot of equivocation about what was a lie and what was expert opinion that either hasn't come to pass because of actual actions or which were, what he will consider, lucky guesses.
Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Okay

Top one. Not a lie. Tell me when you're ready for the second one.

There's no-one to give me a million dollars these days, is there?
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Old 14th February 2017, 07:23 AM   #208
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
There's no-one to give me a million dollars these days, is there?
When you could see for yourself that it was a not a lie, before you predicted I would say it was a not a lie, that's not a particularly stunning achievement.

Anyway, you predicted I wouldn't even reply. So you were completely wrong.

Last edited by ceptimus; 14th February 2017 at 08:00 AM. Reason: inserted 'not a' twice as I'd got it the wrong way round
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Old 14th February 2017, 07:30 AM   #209
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
When you could see for yourself that it was a lie, before you predicted I would say it was a lie, that's not a particularly stunning achievement.
But accurate.


Quote:
Anyway, you predicted I wouldn't even reply. So you were completely wrong.
I can live with that. It happens. Are you ever wrong?
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Old 14th February 2017, 07:33 AM   #210
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
When the chancellor of the exchequer, and a previous chancellor get together on a platform and tell you that in the days immediately following a leave vote an emergency tax raising budget will be held.

And then there is no emergency budget.

Now remain supporters can claim this was not a lie. But if they do then it shows that they don't understand the English language.
I can see exactly one lie, and that's Cameron's that he would immediately trigger A50 in the event of a leave vote. Any other predictions are yet to be tested, since article 50 has not yet been triggered. Many of the predictions are based on what happens after A50 is triggered, or after we actually leave, not what would happen in the limbo we're currently in.
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Old 14th February 2017, 07:44 AM   #211
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No. Many of the statements made by the chancellor, and other members of project fear, were what would happen in the days immediately following the referendum if we dared vote leave. These were not things that would happen after triggering Article 50 - they were threatened to happen straight away. Those things haven't happened.

Now you could argue that some weren't lies - just inaccurate forecasts, but the chancellor wasn't forecasting that he might hold an emergency budget - he told us that he WOULD hold one. He didn't, so it was a lie.

Last edited by ceptimus; 14th February 2017 at 08:14 AM. Reason: Changed 'election' to 'budget' thanks Lothian.
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:01 AM   #212
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. Many of the statements made by the chancellor, and other members of project fear, were what would happen in the days immediately following the referendum if we dared vote leave. These were not things that would happen after triggering Article 50 - they were threatened to happen straight away. Those things haven't happened.

Now you could argue that some weren't lies - just inaccurate forecasts, but the chancellor wasn't forecasting that he might hold an emergency election - he told us that he WOULD hold one. He didn't, so it was a lie.
But, again, Cameron repeatly said that he would trigger A50 immediately.
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:02 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Now you could argue that some weren't lies - just inaccurate forecasts, but the chancellor wasn't forecasting that he might hold an emergency election - he told us that he WOULD hold one. He didn't, so it was a lie.
There was no emergency budget. However what the chancellor said was that following a leave vote there would be a huge effect on the economy and an emergency budget would be needed.


What happened was that following a leave vote, to prevent a huge effect on the economy, the Bank of England had to inject into the economy £170bn or £2656 for every man, woman and child in the UK.


While the proposed solution (emergency budget) was not the one used in the end, the chancellor was quite right about the effect on UK finances a leave vote would have.

Project fear was actually project accurate forecast in this case.

Last edited by Lothian; 14th February 2017 at 08:04 AM.
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:16 AM   #214
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Chancellor: "I will hold an emergency budget in the days immediately following a leave vote."

* didn't *

Remainers: "That wasn't a lie because...."

You couldn't make this stuff up.
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:21 AM   #215
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Originally Posted by Rat View Post
But, again, Cameron repeatly said that he would trigger A50 immediately.
Okay, so that was a lie by the remain side too. But Osborn didn't say he would hold his emergency budget, "only in the event that the Prime Minister wasn't lying when he told you..." He said he would hold his budget in the days immediately following a Leave vote.

The Labour ex chancellor stood on the same platform and agreed that the emergency budget would be necessary.
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:27 AM   #216
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If you think we're in a limbo situation now prior to triggering Article 50, are you predicting that things will nosedive in early April (in the days immediately following Prime Minister May triggering Article 50 before the end of March as promised).

If not, why not?
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:32 AM   #217
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Instead we got the BoE shovelling money out the door to keep things afloat, presumably in the hope that sanity would reassert itself. Sadly that didn't happen and we instead got an Autumn statement that declared that the government would start shovelling money out the door to try and keep things afloat.

Of course, the end result of all that shovelling was simply to delay the inevitable. Still...never mind, eh?
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:34 AM   #218
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Chancellor: "I will hold an emergency budget in the days immediately following a leave vote."

* didn't *

Remainers: "That wasn't a lie because...."

You couldn't make this stuff up.
I have accepted that there was no emergency budget. However you need to look beyond the trite fact that there was no budget to see what threat 'Project fear' was predicting. He was saying the economy would be hit following a leave vote and that would need corrective action to stabilise the economy. He was totally correct in that prediction.

If the government says that in future separated fathers will have to pay child maintenance to their partners but instead they don't actually pay rather deductions are made to their income at source is that a lie or in both cases does the fathers money go to the mother?

Last edited by Lothian; 14th February 2017 at 08:36 AM.
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:36 AM   #219
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Okay

Top one. Not a lie. Tell me when you're ready for the second one.
Yes it is. A barefaced lie. Seriously if you are going to be dishonest to this extent you might as well not even pretend to be arguing.
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:39 AM   #220
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Yes it is. A barefaced lie. Seriously if you are going to be dishonest to this extent you might as well not even pretend to be arguing.
Once we've stopped uncontrolled immigration from the EU of unskilled migrants, we'll be able to allow immigrants in from all over the world providing they have the skills we want. That will include Australian nationals. Please explain why you think this is a lie.
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:43 AM   #221
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Once we've stopped uncontrolled immigration from the EU of unskilled migrants, we'll be able to allow immigrants in from all over the world providing they have the skills we want. That will include Australian nationals. Please explain why you think this is a lie.
Pretty much everything you have written there is a lie.

Our immigration policy with respect to Australia has nothing to do with our EU membership. Simple as that. If we want more Australians to come we could do that tomorrow.

Thanks for adding another to my list of lies though. The unskilled EU migrants lie.
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:48 AM   #222
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We do have unskilled migrants from the EU entering right now. Not a lie.

While we're being flooded with migrants and there aren't enough houses and services for everyone, we have to get tough on immigration that we can control to stem the flood. Not a lie.

We can't stop the EU flood for at least another two years while we're still EU members. Not a lie.

Just because you don't agree with someone, it doesn't mean they're lying. You need to do better than that and actually back up your accusations with facts.
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Old 14th February 2017, 08:49 AM   #223
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Once we've stopped uncontrolled immigration from the EU of unskilled migrants
Can you show that this is desirable? Can you show the negative effects of EU migration?
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:06 AM   #224
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Can you show that this is desirable? Can you show the negative effects of EU migration?
Once you accept that there are limits to immigration into what is already a very crowded country (and if you don't accept that then you're an idiot), then it's obviously desirable to select whom you want to allow in and whom you don't.

So the negative effects are that we're very tough on turning away immigrants from India, Australia, and so on in order to try to keep the total immigration numbers managable - and that sometimes means turning down people who would actually benefit the country if they were allowed in.

This isn't rocket science - it's what practically every non-EU country in the world already does.

It's only the EU nonsensical rules that means we have to accept each and every immigrant from any EU country, regardless of whether they have any skills that we need, and even though our country is already more overcrowded than the one they're coming from.

Many other EU countries are becoming wise to this. Watch this year's elections to see how voters in other EU countries feel. How much longer do you think the EU will desperately try to hold onto this failed policy?

Last edited by ceptimus; 14th February 2017 at 09:10 AM.
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:10 AM   #225
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Can you show that this is desirable? Can you show the negative effects of EU migration?
We can see the negative effects of not having these people coming in right now. But of course that apparently makes me an idiot.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...r-numbers-fall
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:13 AM   #226
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Once you accept that there are limits to immigration into what is already a very crowded country (and if you don't accept that then you're an idiot), then it's obviously desirable to select whom you want to allow in and whom you don't.

So the negative effects are that we're very tough on turning away immigrants from India, Australia, and so on in order to try to keep the total immigration numbers managable - and that sometimes means turning down people who would actually benefit the country if they were allowed in.

This isn't rocket science - it's what practically every non-EU country in the world already does.

It's only the EU nonsensical rules that means we have to accept each and every immigrant from any EU country, regardless of whether they have any skills that we need, and even though our country is already more overcrowded than the one they're coming from.

Many other EU countries are becoming wise to this. Watch this year's elections to see how voters in other EU countries feel. How much longer do you think the EU will desperately try to hold onto this failed policy?


That's a really long winded way of saying 'no' isn't it?

Find facts and figures, surveys and studies and show me that what you believe is true. The unsubstantiated waffle above doesn't count as evidence at all, it's your guess, at best, your wishful thinking in all probability.


Now, again, can you demonstrate the negative effects of EU migration?
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:18 AM   #227
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
That's a really long winded way of saying 'no' isn't it?

Find facts and figures, surveys and studies and show me that what you believe is true. The unsubstantiated waffle above doesn't count as evidence at all, it's your guess, at best, your wishful thinking in all probability.


Now, again, can you demonstrate the negative effects of EU migration?
No. You made the claim. You do the homework. You provide facts and figures that show the benefit of EU migration to the UK and prove that a similar number of migrants from non EU countries (if they were allowed) wouldn't be an even greater economic benefit.
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:33 AM   #228
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. You made the claim. You do the homework. You provide facts and figures that show the benefit of EU migration to the UK and prove that a similar number of migrants from non EU countries (if they were allowed) wouldn't be an even greater economic benefit.

No. I made no claim. You proposed a course of action that begged a question. I simply highlighted the question begging and am asking you to demonstrate the facts upon which you have based your reasoning.

I can go back and quote the whole conversation, with footnotes and everything if you like?

Your burden to demonstrate.
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:34 AM   #229
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But...there'll be a lot of really annoyed people if we start letting in just as many people from those other countries as were coming in from the EU.
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:42 AM   #230
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Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
History trumps geography in politics, and peace is politics by other means. The geography of Ireland hasn't changed since the 1920's and isn't about to. "Peacefully" will be relative.

Here we have a surprise result from the Referendum : the Union flag-waving political contingent that has kept Northern Ireland British against all reason now wants shot of it as a worthless anachronism and impediment to their grand scheme. As someone who grew up with the Troubles I have to say I did not see that coming.
Neither did the Passport Office...
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:46 AM   #231
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Once you accept that there are limits to immigration into what is already a very crowded country (and if you don't accept that then you're an idiot), then it's obviously desirable to select whom you want to allow in and whom you don't.
I think you are missing the wider point here. Since 1989 the UK population has gone up by about 9 million
In that time the number of people unemployed has gone from over 2 million down to 1.6 million. What that means is that we have been creating more jobs than we have been getting migrants to fill.,

The problem with housing and services is not simply that migrants have come here to work. The problem is that we have created so many jobs that we can not fill from UK citizens that we have needed migration to fill them. Meanwhile we have not invested the extra state revenue from more business and personal taxes into infrastructure. In a global economy where we don't need to be self sufficient in everything this county is not over populated. Drive around for a bit or jump in a plane. Space is not something we are short of.

There is pressure on housing and services and there are two ways to solve it, invest more, build more houses and infrastructure or get rid of UK jobs.

Brexit will lead to the latter, I would prefer the former.

Last edited by Lothian; 14th February 2017 at 09:48 AM.
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:48 AM   #232
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
No. I made no claim. You proposed a course of action that begged a question. I simply highlighted the question begging and am asking you to demonstrate the facts upon which you have based your reasoning.

I can go back and quote the whole conversation, with footnotes and everything if you like?

Your burden to demonstrate.
Nice try, but I'm not going to do your work for you.

We hold these truths to be self evident: Choosing who you allow in has got to be preferable to having to allow in anyone from a specified group of countries. Like I said that's what every non-EU country already does.

If you want to try to prove the absurd claim that the opposite is true that's up to you. Good luck in your attempt but I fear you will be wasting your time.
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:53 AM   #233
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Space is not something we are short of.
We've been over this before which led to my including your exasperated response in my signature - even after I gave you the chance to withdraw it you repeated it.

England is already the most densely populated major country in the EU, and, after excluding city states, one of the five most densely populated countries in the world.
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:54 AM   #234
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
We do have unskilled migrants from the EU entering right now. Not a lie.

While we're being flooded with migrants and there aren't enough houses and services for everyone, we have to get tough on immigration that we can control to stem the flood. Not a lie.

We can't stop the EU flood for at least another two years while we're still EU members. Not a lie.

Just because you don't agree with someone, it doesn't mean they're lying. You need to do better than that and actually back up your accusations with facts.
Limits on non EU immigration are not controlled by the EU or anything to do with our EU membership. It's a lie to link the two.

EU immigrants are on average better qualified and higher skilled than the UK population as a whole. It is a lie to suggest that we are being flooded with non skilled EU migrants.

And now the there aren't enough services for everyone lie. I thought you said one at a time? You are lying at an exponential rate now.
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Old 14th February 2017, 09:58 AM   #235
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
We've been over this before which led to my including your exasperated response in my signature - even after I gave you the chance to withdraw it you repeated it.

England is already the most densely populated major country in the EU, and, after excluding city states, one of the five most densely populated countries in the world.
Unless you are planning to put border controls on all of England's borders, including that with Wales and Scotland then as far as this debate is concerned England is a politically meaningless area to choose*.

The population density in my house is over 200 times greater than the UK as a whole. Is my house too densely populated?

Just as my house is not an appropriate measure neither is England when there are no hard borders stopping people crossing into Scotland and Wales.



*Please feel free to update your old 'taken out of context" quote with this new one,

Last edited by Lothian; 14th February 2017 at 10:05 AM.
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Old 14th February 2017, 10:03 AM   #236
Archie Gemmill Goal
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And none of that guff changes the lie. That Tory non EU immigration policy is determined by our EU membership and will be relaxed after Brexit
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Old 14th February 2017, 10:09 AM   #237
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Unless you are planning to put border controls on all of England's borders, including that with Wales and Scotland then as far as this debate is concerned England is a politically meaningless area to choose*.

The population density in my house is over 200 times greater than the UK as a whole. Is my house too densely populated?

Just as my house is not an appropriate measure neither is England when there are no hard borders stopping people crossing into Scotland and Wales.



*Please feel free to update your old 'taken out of context" quote with this new one,
Your house isn't a country. England is.

EU migrants to the UK settle mainly in England, as you well know.

Last edited by ceptimus; 14th February 2017 at 10:13 AM.
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Old 14th February 2017, 10:12 AM   #238
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Nice try, but I'm not going to do your work for you.

We hold these truths to be self evident: Choosing who you allow in has got to be preferable to having to allow in anyone from a specified group of countries. Like I said that's what every non-EU country already does.

If you want to try to prove the absurd claim that the opposite is true that's up to you. Good luck in your attempt but I fear you will be wasting your time.

Again, I'm sat here surrounded by absolutely no evidence that EU migration is a net negative tithe UK

As your policy proposal is very clearly based on your view that EU migration is a net negative, it's really down to you to show your work and demonstrate how you arrived at that conclusion. Which, I might add, seems to be in opposition to the actual facts.

You can try to waffle your way out of it again if you like, but you really need to show some actual statistics or other evidence to support the contention upon which your policy proposal is based.


I won't hold my breath.
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Old 14th February 2017, 10:15 AM   #239
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Again, I'm sat here surrounded by absolutely no evidence that EU migration is a net negative tithe UK.
You're wilfully missing the point. Uncontrolled migration from the EU may be a net benefit to the UK. My argument is that controlled migration from the whole world (including the EU) would obviously result in an even greater benefit.
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Old 14th February 2017, 10:19 AM   #240
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You're wilfully missing the point. Uncontrolled migration from the EU may be a net benefit to the UK. My argument is that controlled migration from the whole world (including the EU) would obviously result in an even greater benefit.

Okay.

Can you demonstrate that?
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