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Tags donald trump , US-North Korea relations

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Old 10th April 2017, 05:12 AM   #1
PhantomWolf
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Could Trump Reignite the Korean War?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7674781.html

Not sure how dangerous this move is by Trump in sending a strike fleet to the Korean Perpendicular, but it seems to have a number of people in the know rather worried about how North Korea will react.
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Old 10th April 2017, 05:20 AM   #2
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Trump is dumb and crazy enough he might start WW3. But he is also easily manipulated and has decent people telling him what he should do with regards to national security, so I have some hope that he won't **** things up too badly.
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Old 10th April 2017, 06:37 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
Trump is dumb and crazy enough he might start WW3. But he is also easily manipulated and has decent people telling him what he should do with regards to national security, so I have some hope that he won't **** things up too badly.
I have a funny feeling that wreaking havoc and murdering innocent people is the one thing that Trump will stick to his guns on.
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Old 10th April 2017, 06:41 AM   #4
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Post Syria air strikes, that whackey Korean will stop his blustering.

We win, by speaking crazy talk AND carrying a big stick.
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Old 10th April 2017, 07:39 AM   #5
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Over the weekend I was speaking to a Trump supporter still convulsing in orgasmic glee over the bombing in Syria. His point was now the world knew there was a tough guy in office willing to bomb (Obama's drone's were "pussy" bombings).

Most importantly, the entire world had to be on edge because Trump is crazy (this is a good thing). He ordered the bombing without going through Congress, he doesn't give a **** about the rules. He could fly off at any moment, so the world now cowers in terror.

I asked if he thought this crazed foreign policy would make someplace equally crazy, like North Korea, fear an unprovoked attack and launch first. There was a lot of hemming and hawing about us being able to destroy North Korea - wipe them off the map - so, of course, they wouldn't do anything. But they're crazy....

My answer to the OP, therefore, is **** yes Trump could reignite war on that peninsula. I think it's more likely than at any point since the end of the Cold War that someone uses nukes. Does anyone want to place a bet on how North Korea will react to escalating tension? This is madness.
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Old 10th April 2017, 07:43 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
Trump is dumb and crazy enough he might start WW3. But he is also easily manipulated and has decent people telling him what he should do with regards to national security, so I have some hope that he won't **** things up too badly.
Evidently he ordered that Syrian strike because he was moved by the pictures of dead children (ignored the tens of thousands of previous such pictures and doesn't want to help any of the living children of Syria, but whatever). The bombing ignored Congress and the Constitutional process for a military strike.

Point being, I have zero confidence that anyone around Trump can stop him from making an emotional decision to use force. Recall that Trump is also surrounded by sycophants and yes-men eager to curry favor. He will be able to find someone to run through the logistics for whatever hare-brained scheme he wants to try.

Look at this ****:
Quote:
...Trump and the National Security Council are considering putting American nuclear weapons in South Korea, according to a report by NBC News. A plan to assassinate Kim Jong-un is also on the table.
http://www.salon.com/2017/04/10/when...-a-key-moment/

I'm sure the paranoid dictator will respond to that type of provocation in a totally measured way.
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Old 10th April 2017, 08:17 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
Evidently he ordered that Syrian strike because he was moved by the pictures of dead children (ignored the tens of thousands of previous such pictures and doesn't want to help any of the living children of Syria, but whatever). The bombing ignored Congress and the Constitutional process for a military strike.

Point being, I have zero confidence that anyone around Trump can stop him from making an emotional decision to use force. Recall that Trump is also surrounded by sycophants and yes-men eager to curry favor. He will be able to find someone to run through the logistics for whatever hare-brained scheme he wants to try.

Look at this ****:

http://www.salon.com/2017/04/10/when...-a-key-moment/

I'm sure the paranoid dictator will respond to that type of provocation in a totally measured way.
North Korea is a crazy dog and Trump wants to back them into a corner? NK will not react reasonably. I think the leaders of NK would rather take the country down with them and inflict as much damage as possible to other than give up power.

However China is the issue. China considers west Asia 'theirs', much as we consider the Americas 'ours'. If the US puts nukes in South Korea, China will act. Not sure what they would do but they will act.
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Old 10th April 2017, 08:30 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
However China is the issue. China considers west Asia 'theirs', much as we consider the Americas 'ours'. If the US puts nukes in South Korea, China will act. Not sure what they would do but they will act.
China also has a big interest in 60% of the NK population not flooding into their country the moment an active war starts.

We are tip-toeing right up to the edge of something insane, and half this dumb country just loves the tough-guy brinkmanship. It's terrifying.
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Old 10th April 2017, 01:08 PM   #9
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I was listening to an interview on NPR recently about the DPRK and its nuclear/missile prigram, and the guest (can't remember his name unfortunately) said something pertinent:

North Korea acts perfectly rational when you realize their goal is to keep the Kim family in power.

How that will play out when a bonkers POTUS is thrown into the mix unfortunately pulls the rug out from under any remote possibility of predictions.

Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
...snip...

Look at this ****:

http://www.salon.com/2017/04/10/when...-a-key-moment/

I'm sure the paranoid dictator will respond to that type of provocation in a totally measured way.
Does Seoul have no say in that chain of events?
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Old 10th April 2017, 02:18 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Polaris View Post
Does Seoul have no say in that chain of events?
I have no idea. Do you think Trump, et al, would listen? I mean, at this point S. Korea will suffer all of the damage. N. Korea can't do any damage beyond their neighbor. And, of course, we can float subs in the area or just declare that we aimed some ICBM's that way.

If I were in Seoul, I would be complimenting Trump's hair and hand size every day...

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Old 10th April 2017, 02:26 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Polaris View Post
I was listening to an interview on NPR recently about the DPRK and its nuclear/missile prigram, and the guest (can't remember his name unfortunately) said something pertinent:

North Korea acts perfectly rational when you realize their goal is to keep the Kim family in power.

How that will play out when a bonkers POTUS is thrown into the mix unfortunately pulls the rug out from under any remote possibility of predictions.



Does Seoul have no say in that chain of events?
And what happened to Baby Doc Duvallier demonstrates what happens to the dictator if they try to relax the regime.
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Old 10th April 2017, 02:51 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
I have no idea. Do you think Trump, et al, would listen? I mean, at this point S. Korea will suffer all of the damage. N. Korea can't do any damage beyond their neighbor. And, of course, we can float subs in the area or just declare that we aimed some ICBM's that way.

If I were in Seoul, I would be complimenting Trump's hair and hand size every day...
I'd be contemplating moving.
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Old 10th April 2017, 03:10 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post

However China is the issue. China considers west Asia 'theirs', much as we consider the Americas 'ours'. If the US puts nukes in South Korea, China will act. Not sure what they would do but they will act.
Yes China is the issue. I think they will impose their will on NK not to fire the first shot.
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Old 10th April 2017, 03:30 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
Evidently he ordered that Syrian strike because he was moved by the pictures of dead children (ignored the tens of thousands of previous such pictures and doesn't want to help any of the living children of Syria, but whatever). The bombing ignored Congress and the Constitutional process for a military strike.

Point being, I have zero confidence that anyone around Trump can stop him from making an emotional decision to use force. Recall that Trump is also surrounded by sycophants and yes-men eager to curry favor. He will be able to find someone to run through the logistics for whatever hare-brained scheme he wants to try.

Look at this ****:

http://www.salon.com/2017/04/10/when...-a-key-moment/

I'm sure the paranoid dictator will respond to that type of provocation in a totally measured way.
I'm worried that Kim will actually do that. Even a 'measured' retaliation to an assassination attempt is... an assassination attempt. If there's anything DPRK has demonstrated lately, it's that the USA would be daring them in their own wheelhouse.

And wasn't the last one executed under the guise of a Reality TV Show?

Assassination + Reality TV Show ? That has Trump written all over it.
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Old 10th April 2017, 03:34 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
North Korea is a crazy dog and Trump wants to back them into a corner? NK will not react reasonably. I think the leaders of NK would rather take the country down with them and inflict as much damage as possible to other than give up power.
I'm sure they won't even take it down with them. I'm sure they have escape plans that involve retirement in the Caribbean under an assumed name.



Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
However China is the issue. China considers west Asia 'theirs', much as we consider the Americas 'ours'. If the US puts nukes in South Korea, China will act. Not sure what they would do but they will act.
This regional deference was the core solution for the Cuban Missile Crisis. No Russian missiles in the Americas - no American missiles in Asia Minor. Deal.
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Old 10th April 2017, 03:43 PM   #16
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I'm hoping he doesn't take a private reassurance from anyone in China as public sanction to do anything.
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Old 10th April 2017, 03:50 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
I'm sure they won't even take it down with them. I'm sure they have escape plans that involve retirement in the Caribbean under an assumed name.





This regional deference was the core solution for the Cuban Missile Crisis. No Russian missiles in the Americas - no American missiles in Asia Minor. Deal.
"North Korea is best Korea! Lottamercy."
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Old 10th April 2017, 04:26 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
China also has a big interest in 60% of the NK population not flooding into their country the moment an active war starts.

We are tip-toeing right up to the edge of something insane, and half this dumb country just loves the tough-guy brinkmanship. It's terrifying.
The day you fear is on the wrong track and headed for you, irrespective of the occupant of the Oval Office.

NK is now an estimated 2 years from assembling an ICBM. Maybe more, maybe less. But they've been plodding in that direction since the Clinton administration, and they continue to make progress.

There is nothing the U.S. can do, or not do about it, that will not send shivers up your spine and tingle the back of your neck.

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Old 10th April 2017, 04:26 PM   #19
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I understand republicans always run for power under the auspices that an evil empire is threatening the nation however, after Iraq and their non wmds how is North Korea even perceived as a new threat to even the most simple-minded?
Back to the threads question, it's unlikely, North Korea can't invade the south while South Korea won't invade the north any attack by America would be just that, an attack.
Be it tactical or total, North Korea's only retort would be for the leader to do a speech on the telly.
If America made a ground invasion expect the news channels to big up the North Korean army, much like Iraq's Republican Guard, with the same results.
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Old 10th April 2017, 04:41 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by imodium View Post
I understand republicans always run for power under the auspices that an evil empire is threatening the nation however, after Iraq and their non wmds how is North Korea even perceived as a new threat to even the most simple-minded?
I would have thought that even the most disinformed and simple-minded would have noticed that NK does have nukes, and does keep launching bigger and better missiles.

But apparently not, now that the Iraq blinders can be put on.
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Old 10th April 2017, 04:45 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7674781.html

Not sure how dangerous this move is by Trump in sending a strike fleet to the Korean Perpendicular, but it seems to have a number of people in the know rather worried about how North Korea will react.

I don't see a war coming anytime soon. However, I have a feeling that something will eventually happen, but I don't see World War III as a result. I know of incidents that drove the world to within seconds of a full blown nuclear war and most people are totally unaware of what occurred. People went to their '9-to-5' jobs not knowing what was occurring behind closed doors regarding the 1962 missile crisis, multiple incidents in 1983 and another incident in 1995.

There was yet another incident where a Soviet submarine did a "Crazy Ivan" on an American sub, which resulted in the loss of the Soviet sub along with its crew. If there is a war on the Korean peninsula, I expert the two Koreans to merge in the South's favor.

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Old 10th April 2017, 04:47 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Toontown View Post
The day you fear is on the wrong track and headed for you, irrespective of the occupant of the Oval Office...
There were nuclear missiles 90 miles off our coast housed in a hostile country with the backing of a superpower, and war was forestalled. Nothing is inevitable.

Now, if Trump had been president then....
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Old 10th April 2017, 04:59 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Toontown View Post
I would have thought that even the most disinformed and simple-minded would have noticed that NK does have nukes, and does keep launching bigger and better missiles.
Nukes that could easily be buried in tunnels under Seoul, or stacked in cargo containers in San Francisco bay.

Americans don't have to be directly killed by a NK conflict... my AAPL shares will do quite nicely if Samsung is taken out of the picture, but not sure about the NASDAQ in general. That's a lot of Americans' pensions.
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Old 10th April 2017, 05:01 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
There were nuclear missiles 90 miles off our coast housed in a hostile country with the backing of a superpower, and war was forestalled. Nothing is inevitable.

Now, if Trump had been president then....
I understand your concern. Trump has been tested for psychopathy, and his score wasn't encouraging. But as you say, nothing is inevitable. Trump's advisors may have prevailed on him to do exactly as Kennedy did.

I'm not too concerned about the little strike on that Syrian airfield. Most of the civilized part of the world actually supports that. It was mostly symbolic, and very measured. the Russians were forewarned and did not try to shoot the missiles down.

And U.S. carriers have visited NK's neighborhood before. That's nothing new. If military action against NK was coming, I'm pretty sure more than one carrier would be headed that way.
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Old 10th April 2017, 05:04 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
Nukes that could easily be buried in tunnels under Seoul, or stacked in cargo containers in San Francisco bay.

Americans don't have to be directly killed by a NK conflict... my AAPL shares will do quite nicely if Samsung is taken out of the picture, but not sure about the NASDAQ in general. That's a lot of Americans' pensions.
Well, those nightmares are hardly going to become more mellow with age, are they.

If you were trying to convince Trump to take preemptive action, you might just about have him convinced.
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Old 10th April 2017, 05:08 PM   #26
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Old 10th April 2017, 05:15 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Toontown View Post
If military action against NK was coming, I'm pretty sure more than one carrier would be headed that way.

I agree. Having three or more carriers in the area would raise the temperature a bit.
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Old 10th April 2017, 05:23 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Toontown View Post
I'm not too concerned about the little strike on that Syrian airfield. Most of the civilized part of the world actually supports that. It was mostly symbolic, and very measured. the Russians were forewarned and did not try to shoot the missiles down.
What worries me about that strike is not the strike, itself, that was mostly pointless dick waving. It really changed nothing - good or bad.

What worries me is the decision making process. Spend years saying a strike on Syria was a bad idea, oh no, pictures of dead kids (first 100,000 pictures of dead Syrian children means nothing), now we bomb.

What happens if he gets some photos of starving NK kids?

I also think his "advisors" are the people at any moment who tell him what he wants to hear.
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Old 10th April 2017, 05:25 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by skyeagle409 View Post
I agree. Having three or more carriers in the area would raise the temperature a bit.
The group will be parked well within range of the missiles NK shoots. I'd rather not see 30,000 sailors within range of a madman's nukes.

(Can any navy folk tell me how close that guess was? 30,000 for 3 battle groups?)
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Old 10th April 2017, 06:29 PM   #30
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This is the time of year where North Korea does its annual provocation.
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Old 10th April 2017, 06:44 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
The group will be parked well within range of the missiles NK shoots. I'd rather not see 30,000 sailors within range of a madman's nukes.

(Can any navy folk tell me how close that guess was? 30,000 for 3 battle groups?)
Not to worry. The intel says NK is still a couple of years away from having a miniaturized nuke they can mount on a missile.

But in a few years the entire U.S. West coast will be permanently in missile range. So there is no time like the present to park battle groups in missile range.
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Old 10th April 2017, 06:58 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
What worries me is the decision making process. Spend years saying a strike on Syria was a bad idea, oh no, pictures of dead kids (first 100,000 pictures of dead Syrian children means nothing), now we bomb.
Alternative decision making process:

Too many questions about Russians. I'm nobody's pet. Hate when they say that. I'll show them. Hmm...Russians don't want us bombing Syria, let's bomb Syria once. I'll call Putin first, it'll be fine, he knows how these things work. Why should I say we did it....hey...I remember something about dead kids in that last meeting. Didn't think much of it at the time...hey, were they talking about Syria? I think they were...heard something about kids on Fox and Friends. Yes? Perfect. Someone get Vladimir on the phone.
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Old 10th April 2017, 07:04 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
China also has a big interest in 60% of the NK population not flooding into their country the moment an active war starts.

We are tip-toeing right up to the edge of something insane, and half this dumb country just loves the tough-guy brinkmanship. It's terrifying.
Oh what to do? Be a pussy like Obama, or be a tough guy like Trump. So *********** terrifying!
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Old 10th April 2017, 08:24 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by skyeagle409 View Post
I don't see a war coming anytime soon. However, I have a feeling that something will eventually happen ...
It can't carry on like this forever, of course, but it can for a good while if nobody wants it to collapse on their watch.
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Old 10th April 2017, 08:36 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
What worries me about that strike is not the strike, itself, that was mostly pointless dick waving. It really changed nothing - good or bad.

What worries me is the decision making process. Spend years saying a strike on Syria was a bad idea, oh no, pictures of dead kids (first 100,000 pictures of dead Syrian children means nothing), now we bomb.
My alternative reading is that this was about doing something Obama didn't, and will never do now since Trump beat him in the election and the crowd and is President now and he's not. And Trump did something. Strongly.

Quote:
What happens if he gets some photos of starving NK kids?
"Beautiful" babies, remember? And where's the Obama connection?

Quote:
I also think his "advisors" are the people at any moment who tell him what he wants to hear.
Not long ago Spicer described some disgraced individuals as "hangers-on" and it struck me that hangers-on is all that Trump brings to the building. That and family.
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Old 10th April 2017, 09:13 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Oh what to do? Be a pussy like Obama, or be a tough guy like Trump. So *********** terrifying!
So a choice between a president that takes a comprehensive plan of attack to congress for approval after their bitching about Presidents acting without their approval followed by working with the Russians to get a deal to remove Syria's Chemical Weapons without firing a shot when Congress refused to even vote on the attack plan, vs a blind strike that did limited damage, had no actual plan behind it, and was done without asking for permission and sanction from Congress.

Why am I not surprised that you favour the unapproved, unplanned, cowboy approach?
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Old 11th April 2017, 02:29 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7674781.html

Not sure how dangerous this move is by Trump in sending a strike fleet to the Korean Perpendicular, but it seems to have a number of people in the know rather worried about how North Korea will react.
No.

Not because he isn't crazy or evil enough, but because the antics coming from North Korea have long since passed the point where they carry essentially all the blame for any reigniting that might happen.

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Old 11th April 2017, 03:37 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
There were nuclear missiles 90 miles off our coast housed in a hostile country with the backing of a superpower, and war was forestalled. Nothing is inevitable.

Now, if Trump had been president then....
Yea but that was really only one guy Vasili Arkhipov. If he agreed with the captain they would have used nuclear torpedoes on the american fleet.
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Old 11th April 2017, 04:35 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
There were nuclear missiles 90 miles off our coast housed in a hostile country with the backing of a superpower, and war was forestalled. Nothing is inevitable.

Now, if Trump had been president then....

Indeed.

Roughly the same thing happened to the Russians a couple of years beforehand and there was no war then either.
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Old 11th April 2017, 06:10 AM   #40
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NK has several missile issues.
1) Current range cannot hit USA mainland.
2) They don't have a small enough nuke for an ICBM.
3) Their guidance isn't that accurate.

Even if NK surmounts all those issue and launches a nuke at the US, they have to know it's suicide. They don't have enough firepower to dent our retaliation capabilities and if they hit the US mainland I think we would retaliate disproportionately.
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