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Old 8th August 2017, 12:53 PM   #281
PartSkeptic
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
And I suggest that's too subjective a method to be used to determine whether someone has a true gift of prophecy. It is, however, the method that false prophets have used for centuries: make a vague claim and latch onto anything that seems close enough.

I do not care about any proof or non-proof of a some sort of gift. I am not trying to start a religion with followers. I wish to remain anonymous.

I am under the impression I got some information. I acknowledge I could be wrong, but a number of my past experiences tend to support my being right.

What I find interesting is the reaction of disbelievers to such a prediction.

Firstly there is the denial that it WILL happen.

Secondly there is denial that such information may have had a supernatural origin.

Assuming a supernatural origin, what would be the purpose of me getting such information?
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Old 8th August 2017, 01:07 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
I do not care about any proof or non-proof of a some sort of gift. I am not trying to start a religion with followers. I wish to remain anonymous.
But you brag anonymously about it in public. In case you can convince someone you're a prophet, you get a vicarious thrill. Praise to the anonymous is still praise, because you can know it was directed at you. But when you fail -- as all prophets inevitably do -- you can walk away with clean hands, knowing that none of the people whose adulation you craved will be able to follow you and properly mock you. Hence you don't really make a good case for altruistic motives. It still comes off looking like you're fishing for adulation.

Quote:
I am under the impression I got some information. I acknowledge I could be wrong, but a number of my past experiences tend to support my being right.
You keep alluding to the reliability of your prophecies, but provide no evidence. Hence we dismiss it as pretentious bluster.

Quote:
What I find interesting is the reaction of disbelievers to such a prediction.
None of what you identified as a reaction was the actual reaction you get. You get requests for substantiation, which you rebuff. Then you get mockery, which you then deserve because of the rebuff.

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Old 8th August 2017, 01:37 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
I am under the impression I got some information. I acknowledge I could be wrong, but a number of my past experiences tend to support my being right.
But the only way to discover if you're right or wrong is to specify what counts as a hit in enough detail that the probability of something happening that fits it is very low. If there are millions of things that could happen about which you could say, once they've occurred, "that must be what the prediction meant" then, even if the probability of each individual one happening is low, the probability of one of them happening is high enough for the apparent hit to be coincidence.

It's the difference between a prediction like "there will be a major earthquake next year" and "there will be an earthquake registering at least 9 on the Richter scale in South America in October". The first one is almost bound to come true so no-one is going to be impressed if it does, the second would be a genuinely impressive prediction.
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Old 8th August 2017, 04:49 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
YET!

And what about the changing forms of this group of pathogen?

What are the chances?
You make it sound like you're really hoping.

This signature is intended to irritate people.
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Old 8th August 2017, 05:11 PM   #285
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Originally Posted by Beady View Post
You make it sound like you're really hoping.

This signature is intended to irritate people.


Some people would gladly watch billions die horrible deaths so long as they got to say, "I told you so!" Just before they snuffed it themselves.
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Old 8th August 2017, 11:15 PM   #286
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
But you brag anonymously about it in public. In case you can convince someone you're a prophet, you get a vicarious thrill. Praise to the anonymous is still praise, because you can know it was directed at you. But when you fail -- as all prophets inevitably do -- you can walk away with clean hands, knowing that none of the people whose adulation you craved will be able to follow you and properly mock you. Hence you don't really make a good case for altruistic motives. It still comes off looking like you're fishing for adulation.

Coming to this site for praise? Surely you jest.

This site is all about mockery.

Part of the reason I post on this site is for the occasional rational feedback that might challenge some of my thoughts.

Another reason it is a bit like a reactive diary. I record happenings in my life. There might be some who are entertained and amused.

As for being an amateur psychologist, don't give up your day job. Although given the strange rationale of some psychologists you might just be one.

Hmm. I think I enjoy the mental challenge of debate - and winding you guys up - you just might be wrong about your beliefs.
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Old 8th August 2017, 11:24 PM   #287
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Originally Posted by Beady View Post
You make it sound like you're really hoping.

This signature is intended to irritate people.

Actually no. I am enjoying my life very much at the moment. Aside from some aches and pains, I have everything to live for.

But there are people who do hope that it would happen in order to "clean up" the planet.

You guys do realize that being an atheist in such times is a decided disadvantage? The hysterical mobs will likely look to gain favor by "helping" their God/gods.

Here is some feedback you could give me. If you see people dying all around you, would you change you mind and say perhaps PartSkeptic did get a message. Perhaps the other information he was given might also be correct.

My intuition tells me the answer is NO. Heck, it will not even make me certain there is a God.
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Old 8th August 2017, 11:26 PM   #288
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
Some people would gladly watch billions die horrible deaths so long as they got to say, "I told you so!" Just before they snuffed it themselves.

Don't judge me by your own standards.
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Old 8th August 2017, 11:37 PM   #289
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If I see a major pandemic affecting people all over the world by the end of the year I would certainly count this particular prediction as a hit. If I see, for example, a new strain of influenza emerge that has a higher mortality rate than usual I would not count it as a hit. Would you?

This is why we need to agree in advance what is going to count as a hit and what is not.

If you don't like my criteria for what would count as a "major, global health problem" then by all means suggest your own. But bear in mind that specifying such criteria is as much for your benefit as ours. If we don't agree criteria upfront then we will be indeed be free to dismiss whatever you think clearly counts as a hit as a miss because it's insufficiently 'major' or insufficiently 'global'.
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Old 9th August 2017, 04:02 AM   #290
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
If I see a major pandemic affecting people all over the world by the end of the year I would certainly count this particular prediction as a hit. If I see, for example, a new strain of influenza emerge that has a higher mortality rate than usual I would not count it as a hit. Would you?

This is why we need to agree in advance what is going to count as a hit and what is not.

If you don't like my criteria for what would count as a "major, global health problem" then by all means suggest your own. But bear in mind that specifying such criteria is as much for your benefit as ours. If we don't agree criteria upfront then we will be indeed be free to dismiss whatever you think clearly counts as a hit as a miss because it's insufficiently 'major' or insufficiently 'global'.

For what is worth, I expect that the CDC will make statements of major concern, and be taking serious measures. And that it will be a major story.

I do not care about a "hit" or a "miss". I could quite easily be wrong about a pandemic this year or even next. What I am not wrong about is that man is destroying the planet and is unable to do anything to stop it. If there is a God who intervenes, then I would think that now would be an appropriate time.

Being replaced by artificial intelligence is not a solution. I doubt they will be versatile enough to survive for long, or even wish to.
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Old 9th August 2017, 04:05 AM   #291
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
For what is worth, I expect that the CDC will make statements of major concern, and be taking serious measures. And that it will be a major story.

I do not care about a "hit" or a "miss". I could quite easily be wrong about a pandemic this year or even next. What I am not wrong about is that man is destroying the planet and is unable to do anything to stop it. If there is a God who intervenes, then I would think that now would be an appropriate time.

Being replaced by artificial intelligence is not a solution. I doubt they will be versatile enough to survive for long, or even wish to.
Now your prediction has become "something bad will happen sometime and it will be in the news".

Can you not see that this is not a valid prediction at all?
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Old 9th August 2017, 04:20 AM   #292
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
For what is worth, I expect that the CDC will make statements of major concern, and be taking serious measures. And that it will be a major story.
Again, 'major' is a subjective term. To be worth anything at all a prediction needs to be specific enough that everyone can agree whether or not whatever actually transpires is a hit or not. This was always insisted on in Randi's MDC: success or failure could not be a judgement call, it must be self evident.

If you're not going to cooperate in producing meaningful success criteria I will simply tell you what I intend to use. I also haven't yet told you what percentage hit rate for your total list of predictions I will consider sufficient to grant the possibility that you were given information by supernatural means. Unfortunately there is no suitable mundane baseline to compare it to, so that will need to be a judgement call on my part. I'll give it some thought.
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Old 9th August 2017, 04:42 AM   #293
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Coming to this site for praise? Surely you jest.



This site is all about mockery.



...

Hmm. I think I enjoy the mental challenge of debate - and winding you guys up - you just might be wrong about your beliefs.

Ahh, you're one of those religious types, the ones who care more about parading their bloated pride around than in evangelism or living a life guided by God and faith. You're here to thank God in the public square that you aren't like the tax collector next to you. Theologically you're essentially the exact opposite of men like Fred Rogers.

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage...14&version=RSV

Quote:
Luke 18:9-14Revised Standard Version (RSV)

The Parable of the Pharisee and the Tax Collector
9 He also told this parable to some who trusted in themselves that they were righteous and despised others: 10 “Two men went up into the temple to pray, one a Pharisee and the other a tax collector. 11 The Pharisee stood and prayed thus with himself, ‘God, I thank thee that I am not like other men, extortioners, unjust, adulterers, or even like this tax collector. 12 I fast twice a week, I give tithes of all that I get.’ 13 But the tax collector, standing far off, would not even lift up his eyes to heaven, but beat his breast, saying, ‘God, be merciful to me a sinner!’ 14 I tell you, this man went down to his house justified rather than the other; for every one who exalts himself will be humbled, but he who humbles himself will be exalted.”
Now, can you tighten up that prophesy of yours my little Pharisee? You need to nail down some specifies if you expect anything other than a good and proper mocking if you try to claim a "hit" for the vague nothing you've uttered.
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Old 9th August 2017, 04:50 AM   #294
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Don't judge me by your own standards.


What's that even mean?

You're a sadist gleefully anticipating the deaths of billions in the hope someone thinks you were "right" about your vague, wishy-washy "prediction." If you don't want to be called out on it then don't come here and make pompous proclamations without any evidence to back them up.

I find it particularly hilarious that you have the hubris to make a prediction but are too cowardly and devoid of faith to make a specific one. You hedge your bets too much to actually have the gift of prophesy.
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Old 9th August 2017, 06:21 AM   #295
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OK, I've updated PS's list of predictions with what I think are reasonable success criteria for those that are still pending. Comments/suggestions welcome.


Quote:
1. Trump will be chosen as Republican candidate. Status: Hit
2. Trump will win the Presidential election. Status: Hit
3. Trump will be sworn in as President. Status: Hit
4. There will be a very surprising event between 2 and 3. Status: Miss
5. A serious global health problem will be apparent by the end of 2017. Status: Pending

Being the lead item on three different global news sites in the same week still seems reasonable to me. Suggestions for the other two (besides the BBC) welcome. I suggest an American one and an Australian one (the last because, although I'd prefer a Far East one, languages are not my strong suit).

6. Trump will serve a full term. Status: Pending

A self evident one.

7. Trump will do well. Status: Pending

At the moment, failing to start WW3 might suffice. I'm actually tempted to mark this one as a miss right now. Suggestions?

8. 5 will be the start of a pandemic that will kill 50% of the population by 2027. Status: Pending

If 5 is a miss this obviously immediately fails, otherwise it's self evident provided we wait ten years.

Current score: 3 hits, 1 miss, 4 pending. Hit rate 75%
As for the hit rate required to seriously consider the possibility that PartSkeptic is receiving information paranormally, my feeling (and I reluctantly admit that I see no way to set a figure based on a calculated baseline, so feeling it must be) is that his current hit rate must be maintained. So three strikes and he's out.
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Old 9th August 2017, 06:37 AM   #296
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
OK, I've updated PS's list of predictions with what I think are reasonable success criteria for those that are still pending. Comments/suggestions welcome.




As for the hit rate required to seriously consider the possibility that PartSkeptic is receiving information paranormally, my feeling (and I reluctantly admit that I see no way to set a figure based on a calculated baseline, so feeling it must be) is that his current hit rate must be maintained. So three strikes and he's out.
Realistically the "prediction" that Trump would win the nomination, presidency and be sworn in isn't much by way of prophesy anyhow. Hillary ran her presidential campaign the same way Elizabeth Warren ran her initial failed bid for the Massachusetts Senate. My cynicism about American Politics reached the same conclusion as PartSkeptic's attempt at prophesy. If he's a prophet then so am I.
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Old 9th August 2017, 06:55 AM   #297
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
Realistically the "prediction" that Trump would win the nomination, presidency and be sworn in isn't much by way of prophesy anyhow. Hillary ran her presidential campaign the same way Elizabeth Warren ran her initial failed bid for the Massachusetts Senate. My cynicism about American Politics reached the same conclusion as PartSkeptic's attempt at prophesy. If he's a prophet then so am I.
The point where the hit rate exceeds the level that can reasonably be explained by intelligent guesswork is exactly the point I'm groping for a way to calculate. I certainly agree that PartSkeptic has not reached it yet, with only 3 out of 4 not particularly impressive predictions made and hit.
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Old 9th August 2017, 07:00 AM   #298
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Coming to this site for praise? Surely you jest.

This site is all about mockery.
"The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about." --Oscar Wilde.

This site is about testing claims -- especially extraordinary claims. You're making extraordinary claims. They do not stand up to testing. Mockery inevitably follows a continuation of the claim.

Quote:
As for being an amateur psychologist, don't give up your day job.
I'm neither a psychologist nor attempting a psychological diagnosis. I'm simply invoking a well-known principle of human behavior: attention-seeking.

Quote:
Hmm. I think I enjoy the mental challenge of debate - and winding you guys up - you just might be wrong about your beliefs.
We'd be happy to be proven wrong with evidence. Oh, wait, you don't have any of that. You just have claims to extraordinary ability, with no intention to provide evidence for it. Yup, attention-seeking. But thanks for confirming that you're trolling.
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Old 9th August 2017, 07:05 AM   #299
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
I do not care about a "hit" or a "miss".
Clear you do. You introduced your citation thus:

Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
This looks like it fits the characteristics of the pandemic pathogen I have been predicting may hit us soon. Transmittable fungus with high death rate and hard to eliminate
You're claiming a news event is fulfilling your prophecy. How is this not an attempt to claim a "hit"?
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Old 9th August 2017, 07:13 AM   #300
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
What's that even mean?

You're a sadist gleefully anticipating the deaths of billions in the hope someone thinks you were "right" about your vague, wishy-washy "prediction." If you don't want to be called out on it then don't come here and make pompous proclamations without any evidence to back them up.

I find it particularly hilarious that you have the hubris to make a prediction but are too cowardly and devoid of faith to make a specific one. You hedge your bets too much to actually have the gift of prophesy.

Full of emotive derisive words. Must have have you worried.

In particular, I am anything but cowardly. Typical name calling - the phrase "cowardly terrorists" is getting so over-used.

Trying to provoke me into a mudslinging match. Your territory - I get dirty and you enjoy it?
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Old 9th August 2017, 07:41 AM   #301
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
(snip)This site is about testing claims -- especially extraordinary claims. You're making extraordinary claims. They do not stand up to testing. Mockery inevitably follows a continuation of the claim.
(snip)

Not a claim. I am providing you guys with information. Take it or leave it.

Something further to think about.

Quote:
https://www.statnews.com/2017/04/21/...candida-auris/

Public health officials have a lot on their plate now: Outbreaks of measles and flu, soaring deaths from opioid overdoses, funding cuts. But for Dr. Anne Schuchat, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one of the scariest threats is a deadly fungus.

The lethal fungus, known as Candida auris, has has been identified in at least 61 people in the United States in recent years, mostly in New York, New Jersey, and Illinois. It is not clear how many of the patients have died, but the fungus is considered highly dangerous. And Schuchat fears it could spread.

From my experience, and the reading I have done, a number of systemic fungal infections do not cause death directly - they cause organ failures, and often the underlying cause (the fungus) is not blamed.

This one seems easier to test for than some so it may it be a question of which strain gets us first.
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Old 9th August 2017, 08:01 AM   #302
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Not a claim.
Yes, a claim.
Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
This looks like it fits the characteristics of the pandemic pathogen I have been predicting may hit us soon. Transmittable fungus with high death rate and hard to eliminate
This is one of several instances in which you have claimed some sort of special clairvoyance.

Quote:
I am providing you guys with information.
Information you have explicitly postured as putative evidence of your claim.

Quote:
Take it or leave it.
The information is what it is. The claim, and all your other claims of supernatural ability, remain unproven. Hence I leave them.
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Old 9th August 2017, 08:03 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Full of emotive derisive words.
No, it's fair comment on your sociopathic approach to news of a pandemic. You seem to be begging the question that your behavior is normal.
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Old 9th August 2017, 08:20 AM   #304
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Full of emotive derisive words. Must have have you worried.
Ahh, my little Pharisee. I'm afraid what you're interpreting as being "scared" is in fact residual contempt taught by my Lutheran upbringing. You see, I was raised to see religion as something you live, not something you use to gloat about. I was raised to see people who act the way you are as a prideful hypocrites who bring shame to the Body of Christ. Since I still respect people who live their faith instead of mounting it like a pedestal as you do, I also feel some embarrassment on their behalf for having a preening Pharisee such as yourself attacking them by associating your behavior with their faith.

Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
In particular, I am anything but cowardly. Typical name calling - the phrase "cowardly terrorists" is getting so over-used.
I never called you a terrorist, just a coward, a criticism that will remain accurate until such time as you add some specifics to your alleged predictions. From a religious point of view, the vague nature of your predictions shows a distinct lack of faith and courage. If you had actual faith in any of this "information," you would offer specifics. Calling a newspaper horoscope prophet like yourself a coward is something else that stems from my religious education. Pretending my criticism is part of something trendy may help you conceal your yellow stripes from your own eyes, but it does nothing to hide them from the rest of us.

Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Trying to provoke me into a mudslinging match. Your territory - I get dirty and you enjoy it?
Don't be silly. I'm not trying to provoke you. You're a Pharisee. I will use you as Christ used your kind in his day, as an example of how NOT to conduct ones faith. I hold no illusions about you ever "seeing the light" and learning humility. You have too much of your identity wrapped up in preening and pretense over your religion. You've even gone so far as to offer Newspaper Horoscope grade "predictions" and then act like there's something wrong with us for not taking your word for it!

You are an amusing one my little Pharisee.
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Old 9th August 2017, 08:20 AM   #305
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Don't judge me by your own standards.
And why not? Didn't you just say
Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Part of the reason I post on this site is for the occasional rational feedback that might challenge some of my thoughts.
Now how are people supposed to challenge you if they don't get to apply standards that they themselves came up with? Clearly you're already justified by your own standards, so those will never serve to challenge you. Seems like the only rational feedback that has the power to challenge you will need to come according to standards you don't set.

I live a short walk from the Mormon version of Isengard, where at the top of which a doddering gaggle of octogenarian wizards maintain their grip on millions of people according to their claim to be prophets of God. Your claims don't differ much from theirs, except that they've managed to make a living out of it. They have no more evidence of their claims than you do of yours, but they're snappy dressers so people seem to take heed. Recently these wizards underscored a hard-line stance against same-sex marriage and LGBT issues. When the people tried to lay at their feet the alarming rate and rise in LGBT youth suicide -- one of Utah's dirty little secrets -- they just shrugged their shoulders and did nothing. The moral is that I have yet to see anyone who claims to be a prophet who isn't in it to try to exert some sort of control over others, who isn't in it for themselves alone. What was that you were telling us about telling fortunes for people?

So when I see you capitalizing on others' pain and suffering for your own aggrandizement, with nary a morsel of pity for those in their predicament, then yes, I think I will judge you according to my standards. My standards are good and useful, and call you to account for your claims. The whole end-times phenomena among charismatic Christians is little more than gloating over the supposedly inevitable horrible deaths of their enemies. Looking forward to that, in my mind, is sick and wrong.

And in more precise terms, yes I think a statistically valid test of your claimed ability is appropriate. You want to be seen as a prophet? Make a claim ahead of time with sufficient specificity that we can conclude from a statistical standpoint that the odds of you guessing it right purely by chance are negligible. Can you do that? Will you do that? No, you will not. You continue to seek the attention that would befit a prophet without being willing to put up. So when you invoke tragedies to suit that posturing agenda, people will rationally wonder to what level of sociopathy you're willing to stoop to keep making it all about you.

Have I challenged any of your thinking?
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Old 9th August 2017, 08:22 AM   #306
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Not a claim. I am providing you guys with information. Take it or leave it.
That's a bald faced lie and I think you know it.

What "information" have you offered? Are you referring to your newspaper horoscope "predictions?"

Seriously.

As a prophet your failure is epic:

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Old 9th August 2017, 08:29 AM   #307
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
OK, I've updated PS's list of predictions with what I think are reasonable success criteria for those that are still pending. Comments/suggestions welcome.




As for the hit rate required to seriously consider the possibility that PartSkeptic is receiving information paranormally, my feeling (and I reluctantly admit that I see no way to set a figure based on a calculated baseline, so feeling it must be) is that his current hit rate must be maintained. So three strikes and he's out.
From a Biblical point of view however, the case is closed. 100% accuracy is demanded of prophets of God. That single failure already disqualifies him.
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Old 9th August 2017, 08:44 AM   #308
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
From a Biblical point of view however, the case is closed. 100% accuracy is demanded of prophets of God. That single failure already disqualifies him.
Indeed, if he's claiming to be a prophet of God according to the Bible, that ship already sailed. But if he's merely claiming to be somehow clairvoyant according to a different standard, then I'm willing to relax the criteria and ask only for a statistically significant ability to predict the future. But then again, if he's not claiming to be a prophet of God, then why are we having this discussion in the thread about the Christian end-times, and talking about fungus pandemics that he supposedly predicted?
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Old 9th August 2017, 11:20 PM   #309
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
Indeed, if he's claiming to be a prophet of God according to the Bible, that ship already sailed. But if he's merely claiming to be somehow clairvoyant according to a different standard, then I'm willing to relax the criteria and ask only for a statistically significant ability to predict the future. But then again, if he's not claiming to be a prophet of God, then why are we having this discussion in the thread about the Christian end-times, and talking about fungus pandemics that he supposedly predicted?

Good question. IF I was given some information (from God rather than my imagination) what is the purpose?

Does a die-off of about 60% of the global population qualify as an "end-time" event"?

I have a conflict of interest.
1. If there is a die-off, I suffer (or die) just as any-one else. I do not consider myself as getting special status.
2. If there is no die-off, how is the human race going to be saved from self-extinction?

As for suffering/dying on a massive scale there are some considerations. We all die sometime. IF we have souls, then death is not a big deal. If we do not have souls, then we are just machines, and ethical considerations seem to be irrelevant.

One thing about this fungus (and others, including future mutations) is that it attacks people who are not healthy or do not have good immune systems. For example, histoplasmosis typically infects terminally ill AID patients. Survival of the fittest would be what nature wants - yes?

There are over 1.5 million types of fungus. About 0.8 million have been identified. They are mutating faster than we can identify them. Global warming will speed up the rate of mutation.
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Old 9th August 2017, 11:31 PM   #310
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
From a Biblical point of view however, the case is closed. 100% accuracy is demanded of prophets of God. That single failure already disqualifies him.
Who made that rule?

Assuming that Noah was right (even if it may have been a local event) what happened to those who ignored the warning and did not build their own boats?

If someone was consistent at 55% (given the spread or odds) on predicting the outcomes of sporting events, would you not bet on such predictions? You will win more than you lose.
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Old 10th August 2017, 12:31 AM   #311
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Who made that rule?
According to the Bible? God.

Quote:
Assuming that Noah was right (even if it may have been a local event) what happened to those who ignored the warning and did not build their own boats?
I guess they drowned.

What happened to the billions of people who ignored the hundreds of actual warnings of the imminent end of the world in the last couple of millennia, however, is that they saved time, money, and in some cases (by refusing to literally drink the Kool Aid) their lives.

Quote:
If someone was consistent at 55% (given the spread or odds) on predicting the outcomes of sporting events, would you not bet on such predictions? You will win more than you lose.
Sure, provided that rate was statistically significant (i.e. there would have to have been dozens of predictions). But for this to be relevant to this thread you'd need to give at least one example of someone with an accuracy rate that good which has been proven to be due to 'revelations' rather than expertise.
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Old 10th August 2017, 04:56 AM   #312
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
(snip)
Sure, provided that rate was statistically significant (i.e. there would have to have been dozens of predictions). But for this to be relevant to this thread you'd need to give at least one example of someone with an accuracy rate that good which has been proven to be due to 'revelations' rather than expertise.

Thanks for the support to establish that 100% is not a requirement.

One could start with six out of ten and if that is maintained, well then.
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Old 10th August 2017, 05:06 AM   #313
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Don't judge me by your own standards.
Oh, I doubt HC would want to see billions die for his own personal fulfillment. You on the other hand, it's not too surprising that you'd welcome the end of civilization.
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Old 10th August 2017, 05:11 AM   #314
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
OK, I've updated PS's list of predictions with what I think are reasonable success criteria for those that are still pending. Comments/suggestions welcome.




As for the hit rate required to seriously consider the possibility that PartSkeptic is receiving information paranormally, my feeling (and I reluctantly admit that I see no way to set a figure based on a calculated baseline, so feeling it must be) is that his current hit rate must be maintained. So three strikes and he's out.
I submit that the first three don't meet the criteria of a supernatural prediction. Trump elected is a binary choice. The two follow-on predictions are, historically speaking, nearly foregone conclusions. We generally assume that the elected president will take office. It skews the hit rate if we include predictions that are things that almost always happen.

ETA: I also take issue with "global health problems". There are always global health problems. Zika is a global health problem. HIV is a global health problem. Heart Disease is a global health problem. If there weren't always global health problems, we wouldn't have a World Health Organization or Center for Disease Control.

Last edited by Craig4; 10th August 2017 at 05:13 AM.
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Old 10th August 2017, 05:47 AM   #315
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Survival of the fittest would be what nature wants - yes?
No!

Nature doesn't want anything nor does nature provide a mechanism designed to produce change. "Survival of the fittest" is a single minded shorthand term for the highly complicated and nuanced scientific theory of evolution. And even as well developed of a theory as evolution is not the same as the aspects of nature it describes.

Your posts suggest you hold the common misunderstanding that evolution is somehow guided and that individual incidents can be loosely attributed to this guidance. This misunderstanding is merely the imposition of your moralistic approach onto nature.

Last edited by Pooneil; 10th August 2017 at 05:53 AM.
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Old 10th August 2017, 06:05 AM   #316
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Thanks for the support to establish that 100% is not a requirement.
Apparently it is a requirement for God. For anyone who understands statistics, a hit rate significantly better than would be expected by chance is what's required.

The problem with predictions for events other than those which are truly random (e.g. tossing a fair coin) is establishing what that expected chance success rate is. Craig4's objections in this regard where your own list of predictions is concerned are valid.

Quote:
One could start with six out of ten and if that is maintained, well then
As long as you didn't try to make a big deal out of that first six out of ten (which is obviously well within the range expected by chance), yes. Guess sixty out of a hundred tosses of a fair coin correctly and I'd be mildly interested. Six hundred out of a thousand and I'd really start paying attention.
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Old 10th August 2017, 06:19 AM   #317
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Who made that rule?
The Jews, a few THOUSAND years before Jesus was even born. There's this thing Christians call "The Bible" that lays out a number of rules about it. For example, Prophets keep their eyes open and don't breathe during a vision:

Quote:
Numbers 12:6
"And he said, hear now my words: if there be a prophet among you, I the Lord will make myself known unto him in a vision, and will speak unto him in a dream."
Quote:
Numbers 24:4 and 16
"He hath said, which heard the words of God, which saw the vision of the Almighty, falling into a trance, but having his eyes open...He hath said, which heard the words of God, and knew the knowledge of the most High, which saw the vision of the Almighty, falling into a trance, but having his eyes open:"
Quote:
Daniel 10:17
"For how can the servant of this my lord talk with this my lord? for as for me, straightway there remained no strength in me, neither is there breath left in me."
Of course, that's mere trivia. We're concerned with your failure rate:

Quote:
Deuteronomy 18:21-22:
"And if thou say in thine heart, How shall we know the word which the Lord hath not spoken? When a prophet speaketh in the name of the Lord, if the thing follow not, nor come to pass, that is the thing which the Lord hath not spoken, but the prophet hath spoken it presumptuously: thou shalt not be afraid of him."
That's cut and dry. You've already failed once, which means the Bible itself tells us not to be afraid of you or anything you say. According to the Bible, your words are meaningless.

The Bible reinforces the point about 100% accuracy:

Quote:
Jeremiah 28:9
"The prophet which prophesieth of peace, when the word of the prophet shall come to pass, then shall the prophet be known, that the Lord hath truly sent him."
Here's a layman's list of a few of the Biblical criteria for a prophet:

http://christianchat.com/bible-discu...s-prophet.html

When you digest that layman's forum, we can move on to some more theologically complex material.

It would seem comparing you to the pharisees was in fact a compliment, as the pharisees at least had a decent understanding of scripture. Your Biblical illiteracy also rules out comparisons to the Sadducees. I'll have to mull that over.

Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Assuming that Noah was right (even if it may have been a local event) what happened to those who ignored the warning and did not build their own boats?
Do you REALLY want to get into all the infants, toddlers and tweens God brutally murdered and literally fed to the fishes because he didn't like what their parents did religiously?

Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
If someone was consistent at 55% (given the spread or odds) on predicting the outcomes of sporting events, would you not bet on such predictions? You will win more than you lose.
Are you seriously comparing prophesy to gambling?

You're not a prophet. you don't get to declare yourself a prophet if you somehow manage a slightly-better-than-average "hit" rate on Newspaper Horoscope grade "predictions."
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Old 10th August 2017, 06:21 AM   #318
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Thanks for the support to establish that 100% is not a requirement.

One could start with six out of ten and if that is maintained, well then.
That's just her personal opinion. According to the Bible you've already failed the test and are NOT a prophet.

Quote:
Deuteronomy 18:21-22:
"And if thou say in thine heart, How shall we know the word which the Lord hath not spoken? When a prophet speaketh in the name of the Lord, if the thing follow not, nor come to pass, that is the thing which the Lord hath not spoken, but the prophet hath spoken it presumptuously: thou shalt not be afraid of him."
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Old 10th August 2017, 09:29 AM   #319
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Good question. IF I was given some information (from God rather than my imagination) what is the purpose?
I don't believe in God, so asking me to speculate "in-universe" is rather a tangent. If you believe in God and are claiming to be his prophet, then make up whatever reason you want. However, since below we point out that Judeo-Christian scripture proposes a test for candidate prophets, it stands to reason that not all who claim to be prophets really are. Else why have the test? So given that not all who claim to be prophets really will be, what can be said about their purpose?

As I said, my impression is that people almost always claim to receive messages from God in order to raise their status among their peers, either to get attention or to exert control. They exploit on the credulity of people around them for their own purposes. Since you are posting at a skeptical forum, it seems prudent for to accept that the null hypothesis held by your audience is that you're some sort of huckster getting some sort of jolly over pretending to be some sort of prophet. It's up to you to provide evidence that would falsify that hypothesis.

Quote:
Does a die-off of about 60% of the global population qualify as an "end-time" event"?
I don't believe in the Christian end-times, so I have limited interest in speculating how disastrous something would have to be in order to qualify as an end-times event. But two facts stand out. First, you posted this news item in the end-times thread, so clearly you think it's somehow relevant. You think at least that it's confirmation of a prediction you made regarding an impending pandemic. So the question rebounds to you: do you think the news item you mentioned is relevant in any way to the end times?

Second, Christians since the dawn of the religion have been anticipating the end times and interpreting various cataclysms as end-time precursors. Clearly they were wrong, as the world did not end with or after them. Given that abominable track record, what do you think the chances are of the pandemic du jour being an end-time event?

Quote:
If there is a die-off, I suffer (or die) just as any-one else. I do not consider myself as getting special status.
You're begging special status now for having predicted it. This is what halleyscomet alluded to earlier. And frankly I don't think you actually believe in any of this end-times nonsense. I have yet to meet a would-be prophet who actually believes his own hype.

Quote:
If there is no die-off, how is the human race going to be saved from self-extinction?
I don't believe there's any guarantee the human race will not be extinguished under any circumstances. I just don't think there needs to be any religious hokum pasted onto it. It's hubristic, in my book, to believe that Homo sapiens is the best the universe can do. Not that I have a death-wish, by any means, but I don't think we're a privileged species.

Quote:
As for suffering/dying on a massive scale there are some considerations. We all die sometime.
That sidestepped the issue. Death is universal, but gloating over it for your own aggrandizement is not. The issue is not that we die, nor that death occurs on grand scales due to various circumstances. The issue is your callous use of those facts in order to aggrandize yourself. You show up on a skeptics board -- where you know you're going to receive very little apart from criticism -- with tales of impending suffering and death, head straight over to a prophecy-related thread and say nothing about it except how it proves you were right and your critics were wrong about you. You seem surprised that people would consider that in bad taste.

Quote:
For example, histoplasmosis typically infects terminally ill AID patients. Survival of the fittest would be what nature wants - yes?
Not sure where this fits in. Are you starting up the "AIDS is God's punishment" rally again?

Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Who made that rule?
It's in the Bible. You have the references.

Quote:
If someone was consistent at 55% (given the spread or odds) on predicting the outcomes of sporting events, would you not bet on such predictions? You will win more than you lose.
I assume by "given the spread or odds" you're referring to the general ability to predict the outcome of a sporting event given the past performance of the participants. Sporting events are not random variables. Yes, the general question holds: if some agent can predict the behavior of a system consistently at a rate that rises statistically significantly above what probability and knowledge alone can supply, I would consider that agent reliable to a degree commensurate to the significance of the prediction.

This is why we aim to put you to the test and see whether your claimed predictions can display the significance. You don't seem to be interested, which leads us to believe your confidence in your ability is limited merely to seeing who will believe your claim, rather than whether your claim is supported by evidence.

If someone approached you about parimutuel betting on a sports event, promising that he is able to predict winners at a rate better than others, but refused to share information with you how about many times he was right and how many times he was wrong, or conversely how much money he has made by predicting winners unexpectedly, would you put your money in his hands?

Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Thanks for the support to establish that 100% is not a requirement.
If you're claiming to be a prophet in the mode of Judaism or Christianity, then I think we're quite justified in holding you to the explicit direction of the Torah on that point. Would-be prophets trying to sneak out of that by showing examples of other prophets who have in some way or another fallen from grace. But the passage halleyscomet quoted is the premier instruction. It's the explicit directive when faced with someone claiming to be a prophet from God.

If you're only claiming to be psychic, then you should probably move the discussion to the general paranormal forum. And yes, you wouldn't necessarily be expected to attain 100% accuracy in order to support a claim in that case.

Quote:
One could start with six out of ten and if that is maintained, well then.
No, I don't consider six out of ten predictions sufficient to claim to be a prophet. Statistical analysis is not that simplistic. Since it's difficult for proctors to root out all the sources of hidden knowledge, and since the window of specificity is hard to quantify, the proposed test is necessarily difficult. It's the kind of test that we can be sure, without undue control, can be passed only by a genuine psychic, not just be someone who's a good guesser or someone capitalizing on people's generally wrong intuition about how likely some things are or what they're willing to do in order to dupe you.
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Old 10th August 2017, 10:28 AM   #320
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A visual representation of PartSkeptic excreting a prophesy:



On a related note, here are some of the perfectly natural, non-divine catastrophes likely to strike the earth within the next few decades:

7 Huge Apocalypses (That Might Happen In Your Lifetime)

The article has several advantages over PartSkeptic and Paul Bethke:

1. There's some actual data to back up the claims.
2. The claims are quite specific.
3. No divine intervention needed.
4. No ambiguity about if the article scores a "hit" or not.

Of course, there will be some scumbag pocket prophet who proclaims any one of these disasters as "judgement from God" for wherever issues has a bee in their bloomers, and they'll have followers who gobble it up, swallowing every drip and squirt of nonsense. S Peter Davis won't get the credit they deserve, the glory will be stolen by Johnny-come-lately televangelists and other parasites.

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