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Old 10th August 2017, 11:17 PM   #321
PartSkeptic
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
I don't believe in God, so asking me to speculate "in-universe" is rather a tangent. If you believe in God and are claiming to be his prophet, then make up whatever reason you want. However, since below we point out that Judeo-Christian scripture proposes a test for candidate prophets, it stands to reason that not all who claim to be prophets really are. Else why have the test? So given that not all who claim to be prophets really will be, what can be said about their purpose?

As I said, my impression is that people almost always claim to receive messages from God in order to raise their status among their peers, either to get attention or to exert control. They exploit on the credulity of people around them for their own purposes. Since you are posting at a skeptical forum, it seems prudent for to accept that the null hypothesis held by your audience is that you're some sort of huckster getting some sort of jolly over pretending to be some sort of prophet. It's up to you to provide evidence that would falsify that hypothesis.



I don't believe in the Christian end-times, so I have limited interest in speculating how disastrous something would have to be in order to qualify as an end-times event. But two facts stand out. First, you posted this news item in the end-times thread, so clearly you think it's somehow relevant. You think at least that it's confirmation of a prediction you made regarding an impending pandemic. So the question rebounds to you: do you think the news item you mentioned is relevant in any way to the end times?

Second, Christians since the dawn of the religion have been anticipating the end times and interpreting various cataclysms as end-time precursors. Clearly they were wrong, as the world did not end with or after them. Given that abominable track record, what do you think the chances are of the pandemic du jour being an end-time event?



You're begging special status now for having predicted it. This is what halleyscomet alluded to earlier. And frankly I don't think you actually believe in any of this end-times nonsense. I have yet to meet a would-be prophet who actually believes his own hype.



I don't believe there's any guarantee the human race will not be extinguished under any circumstances. I just don't think there needs to be any religious hokum pasted onto it. It's hubristic, in my book, to believe that Homo sapiens is the best the universe can do. Not that I have a death-wish, by any means, but I don't think we're a privileged species.



That sidestepped the issue. Death is universal, but gloating over it for your own aggrandizement is not. The issue is not that we die, nor that death occurs on grand scales due to various circumstances. The issue is your callous use of those facts in order to aggrandize yourself. You show up on a skeptics board -- where you know you're going to receive very little apart from criticism -- with tales of impending suffering and death, head straight over to a prophecy-related thread and say nothing about it except how it proves you were right and your critics were wrong about you. You seem surprised that people would consider that in bad taste.



Not sure where this fits in. Are you starting up the "AIDS is God's punishment" rally again?



It's in the Bible. You have the references.



I assume by "given the spread or odds" you're referring to the general ability to predict the outcome of a sporting event given the past performance of the participants. Sporting events are not random variables. Yes, the general question holds: if some agent can predict the behavior of a system consistently at a rate that rises statistically significantly above what probability and knowledge alone can supply, I would consider that agent reliable to a degree commensurate to the significance of the prediction.

This is why we aim to put you to the test and see whether your claimed predictions can display the significance. You don't seem to be interested, which leads us to believe your confidence in your ability is limited merely to seeing who will believe your claim, rather than whether your claim is supported by evidence.

If someone approached you about parimutuel betting on a sports event, promising that he is able to predict winners at a rate better than others, but refused to share information with you how about many times he was right and how many times he was wrong, or conversely how much money he has made by predicting winners unexpectedly, would you put your money in his hands?



If you're claiming to be a prophet in the mode of Judaism or Christianity, then I think we're quite justified in holding you to the explicit direction of the Torah on that point. Would-be prophets trying to sneak out of that by showing examples of other prophets who have in some way or another fallen from grace. But the passage halleyscomet quoted is the premier instruction. It's the explicit directive when faced with someone claiming to be a prophet from God.

If you're only claiming to be psychic, then you should probably move the discussion to the general paranormal forum. And yes, you wouldn't necessarily be expected to attain 100% accuracy in order to support a claim in that case.



No, I don't consider six out of ten predictions sufficient to claim to be a prophet. Statistical analysis is not that simplistic. Since it's difficult for proctors to root out all the sources of hidden knowledge, and since the window of specificity is hard to quantify, the proposed test is necessarily difficult. It's the kind of test that we can be sure, without undue control, can be passed only by a genuine psychic, not just be someone who's a good guesser or someone capitalizing on people's generally wrong intuition about how likely some things are or what they're willing to do in order to dupe you.

I get your points.

There is no belief in God for most posters on this forum - therefore not the slightest acceptance that the message I am passing on has any credibility.

You want proof that any message was from God. Which is the same as asking for proof that God/supernatural exists. No can do.

I am comfortable with who I am. No need for jolly's or self-aggrandizement. That is a straw man set up in order to better scoff.

I saw the thread about WW3 and the end of the world. Humor - basically denial. I do not have a problem with that attitude.

So why don't we end it here, and I will offer updates if I see them.
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Old 10th August 2017, 11:55 PM   #322
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
You want proof that any message was from God. Which is the same as asking for proof that God/supernatural exists. No can do.
But that is precisely what you are doing by making predictions. A hit rate significantly better than would be expected by chance would constitute evidence for the supernatural.

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So why don't we end it here, and I will offer updates if I see them.
And I will also offer updates as events unfold.
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Old 11th August 2017, 06:07 AM   #323
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
There is no belief in God for most posters on this forum - therefore not the slightest acceptance that the message I am passing on has any credibility.
Your complete lack of credibility has nothing to do with the fact that most the posters here are atheist or agnostic. You have no credibility for two reasons:

1. By posting in this thread you imply you are claiming to be a prophet in accordance with the Bible. Having failed in one of you prophesies you have failed the Biblical test and are proven to NOT be a prophet. The Bible explicitly tells Christians and Jews not to fear you or your words.

2. Your "prophesies" are so vague they might as well have been cribbed from a newspaper horoscope. Vague, low-risk guesses aren't prophesy.

Try running your act in a Christian forum. I doubt you'll get much more traction there than here.
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Old 11th August 2017, 06:28 AM   #324
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
A hit rate significantly better than would be expected by chance would constitute evidence for the supernatural.
Not necessarily. We don't know what additional information PartSkeptic has.

Let's say, for example, PartSkeptic is part of a right-wing terrorist organization. The organization has gotten hold of smallpox samples as a result of thawing permafrost in Siberia. This is a disturbingly plausible scenario, as Anthrax is already waking up after thawing out. While we have a vaccine for Smallpox, it hasn't been in regular distribution in decades. Very few people have an immunity to it, making it an ideal biological warfare agent.

In this unlikely but still plausible scenario, PartSkeptic would be expressing not a divine revelation, but inside information about the plans of a terrorist cell. He and his family are vaccinated against smallpox, so he's predictably puffed up and eager for the disease to spread.

And his miss? His claim something would happen between Trump's election and his swearing in? That was when the terrorist group had planned to release their smallpox into the wild. Maybe there was a technical problem. Maybe the cultured smallpox virus wasn't strong enough to infect anyone. Maybe the target populations were government officials who, unbeknownst to the general population, ARE kept vaccinated against Smallpox as a precaution against this very sort of thing.

This too would be consistent with PartSkeptic's cagey claim that he's just sharing "information" with us.

Of course, I may be giving PartSkeptic's theoretical terrorist associates too much credit. They may have cultured Anthrax and tried to spread it in Washington DC, an area that's highly likely to already have a robust health plan in place to combat an anthrax outbreak, given the post 9/11 anthrax scare.
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Old 11th August 2017, 06:55 AM   #325
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The expected chance hit rate (to which the actual hit rate can be compared) can really only be calculated for truly random events like fair coin tosses. For prophesies it's always going to be a judgement call as to where it is, and hence whether it's been exceeded.

Most of the discussions here with PartSkeptic have boiled down to disagreement about the point at which the number and/or likelihood of coincidences becomes grounds for considering a supernatural explanation. PartSkeptic thinks my threshold for surprise is far too high, I think his is far too low.
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Old 11th August 2017, 07:05 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
Not necessarily. We don't know what additional information PartSkeptic has.

Let's say, for example, PartSkeptic is part of a right-wing terrorist organization. The organization has gotten hold of smallpox samples as a result of thawing permafrost in Siberia. This is a disturbingly plausible scenario, as Anthrax is already waking up after thawing out. While we have a vaccine for Smallpox, it hasn't been in regular distribution in decades. Very few people have an immunity to it, making it an ideal biological warfare agent.

In this unlikely but still plausible scenario, PartSkeptic would be expressing not a divine revelation, but inside information about the plans of a terrorist cell. He and his family are vaccinated against smallpox, so he's predictably puffed up and eager for the disease to spread.

And his miss? His claim something would happen between Trump's election and his swearing in? That was when the terrorist group had planned to release their smallpox into the wild. Maybe there was a technical problem. Maybe the cultured smallpox virus wasn't strong enough to infect anyone. Maybe the target populations were government officials who, unbeknownst to the general population, ARE kept vaccinated against Smallpox as a precaution against this very sort of thing.

This too would be consistent with PartSkeptic's cagey claim that he's just sharing "information" with us.

Of course, I may be giving PartSkeptic's theoretical terrorist associates too much credit. They may have cultured Anthrax and tried to spread it in Washington DC, an area that's highly likely to already have a robust health plan in place to combat an anthrax outbreak, given the post 9/11 anthrax scare.
So far, PS is in this space...
Quote:
“...some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.”
-Alfred.

That is what fundies actually want and desire. Religion is not globally harmful? Give me a break. Religion wants this apocalypse. The fundies will be slaughtering you and me. Meanwhile, the Hindu's and muslims will be slaughtering them for the very same reasons. Sure, they think that their morality is correct, but they always retreat to secularism when other religions consider that they belong dead because of their belief.
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Old 11th August 2017, 07:08 AM   #327
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
So far, PS is in this space...
-Alfred.

That is what fundies actually want and desire. Religion is not globally harmful? Give me a break. Religion wants this apocalypse. The fundies will be slaughtering you and me. Meanwhile, the Hindu's and muslims will be slaughtering them for the very same reasons. Sure, they think that their morality is correct, but they always retreat to secularism when other religions consider that they belong dead because of their belief.
Relevant article is relevant:

Nuclear Threats and Climate Change: The Toxicity of End Times Theology

Quote:
Over the years, I have written many times about how those who don't believe we have a future should not be placed in charge of it. This strikes me as one of the most obvious truths there is, but we in the U.S. have certainly not embraced it. We continue to elect fundamentalist Christians who have little motivation to think long-term because they expect Revelations to unfold any day now. Such beliefs, assuming that they are sincere and that one is unable or unwilling to make important decisions without being influenced by them, should be disqualifying.
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Old 11th August 2017, 07:35 AM   #328
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
I care not what the fundies believe simply because those beliefs are an 18th century invention out of whole cloth. They may as well believe in universe forming pixies.

Where it becomes problematic is when not only does someone believe it, they are happy and willing to make it happen. That is a problem. And that is where at least some of our protagonists are operating.
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Old 11th August 2017, 07:59 AM   #329
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
There is no belief in God for most posters on this forum - therefore not the slightest acceptance that the message I am passing on has any credibility.
Not quite. If you claim your ability is to receive information from God, then you must prove that God exists otherwise your claim is moot. But if you merely claim to have some supernatural ability to foretell the future, then there doesn't necessarily need to be a God. In that case your message would still have credibility if you could show a history of its success that far exceeds chance or knowledge.

Quote:
You want proof that any message was from God. Which is the same as asking for proof that God/supernatural exists. No can do.
Agreed, nor are you willing to submit to a test of your abilities that measures its success regardless of purported cause. Since you are utterly unable or unwilling to provide any evidence at all of your claims, the rational conclusion is to reject them.

Quote:
I am comfortable with who I am.
Clearly not, because you refuse to submit to a test of your claimed abilities. If you were comfortable with who you are, you would be willing to take that test and submit to its outcome. You don't want to risk failing the test, so you don't take it. You may be comfortable with who you are, but you aren't comfortable at all with who you claim to be.

Further, among the reasons you stated for posting here were

1. to antagonize your critics, and
2. to solicit feedback from your critics that might possibly alter your beliefs.

Since you don't actually alter your beliefs in the face of feedback, we have to conclude that soliciting feedback has another purpose. It is, perhaps, to create the illusion that you have submitted your ability to some sort of test and that it has somehow emerged victorious. The "counting coup" mode of posting is a pattern we can observe among many informal claimants.

And I struggle to reconcile your claims of comfort with the desire to antagonize those who disbelieve you. Disbelievers are, in fact, on the right side of the evidence -- a fact you have all but conceded above. Hence if you antagonize people who you agree are in the right then the motivation for that antagonism seems closer to you wanting to defend a weak position.

Quote:
No need for jolly's or self-aggrandizement. That is a straw man set up in order to better scoff.
Nonsense. According to Dale Carnegie -- who seems to have a knack for the subject -- the primary human motivation is to achieve greatness. Each person defines greatness differently. But all human endeavor is generally directed toward making oneself great. There is no reason to suppose that isn't also true for you.

You clearly want to be seen as something better or greater than a normal human. You believe you have a special place in this world, and possibly also with God. You engage in behavior designed to reinforce that belief. Manufacturing excuses to disregard criticism and objection to that belief is part of that behavior. You engage in it as long as it seems to have supportive effect -- e.g., for as long as you can write your critics off as unkind, unfair, or irrational. Then you abandon it once it ceases to have that effect.

Quote:
So why don't we end it here, and I will offer updates if I see them.
You may resign the debate at any time, of course. I'm not interested in "updates" unless you are prepared to support with evidence any claims you make regarding them.
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Old 11th August 2017, 08:07 AM   #330
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
I'm not interested in "updates" unless you are prepared to support with evidence any claims you make regarding them.
It's a shame he missed the boat on the Million Dollar Challenge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Mi...rmal_Challenge
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Old 11th August 2017, 08:21 AM   #331
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The expected chance hit rate (to which the actual hit rate can be compared) can really only be calculated for truly random events like fair coin tosses
...
PartSkeptic thinks my threshold for surprise is far too high, I think his is far too low.
And you are the one who is right, for the reasons you give and for:

Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
Not necessarily. We don't know what additional information PartSkeptic has.
We have to set the bar very high in order to accommodate any extraordinary knowledge the claimant might possess. We also have to control for ordinarily predictable circumstances. Six out of ten just isn't remotely high enough.

Penn and Teller, in one of their television programs, staged a simple trick where they shuffled a deck of cards and asked the subject to draw a card. Then they directed the subject to a place where he found a larger version of his card. There are many ways to do the trick: gimmick the deck, gimmick the draw, cast a confederate as the subject, mechanically gimmick the location where the second card would be found. But Penn and Teller wanted to make a point: the trick was done by hiding each of 52 large cards in a different place on the set and memorizing where each one was. The deck and draw were entirely fair and the subject was real. They simply performed a feat of ordinary human memory that, upon reflection, isn't that spectacular but still wouldn't be the first thing the amazed subject would consider.
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Old 11th August 2017, 08:36 AM   #332
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For the record, I'm not actually suggesting PartSkeptic is part of at terrorist plot to unleash a bio-terror agent on the population. It was a deliberately exaggerated scenario used in order to make my point in a noticeable and memorable manner. I am NOT basing my earlier post upon information I uncovered on the "darknet" while performing digital bounty research for a government agency proactively seeking out and thwarting terrorist attacks.

Nope. Nope. I do NOT have multiple online identities embedded in assorted extremists activist organizations for the purpose of aiding law enforcement, or, when fiscally advantageous, facilitating terrorist-on-terrorist attacks. Nope, nope. I had NOTHING to do with the DAESH / KKK conflagration in New Mexico the media isn't reporting on.

As a matter of fact, no such conflict occurred. 157 combatants did not die in a border battle where the surviving KKK and DAESH members were picked off by Mexican vigilantes who mistook the combatants for members of competing drug cartels.

Nope. Nope.

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Old 11th August 2017, 09:25 AM   #333
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
For the record, I'm not actually suggesting PartSkeptic is part of at terrorist plot to unleash a bio-terror agent on the population.
While your correction is appropriate, I don't think anyone rationally believed you were suggesting that. It was clearly phrased as a hypothetical.
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Old 11th August 2017, 10:58 AM   #334
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
While your correction is appropriate, I don't think anyone rationally believed you were suggesting that. It was clearly phrased as a hypothetical.
I'd hoped as much, but I tend to err on the side of caution. It wouldn't the first time someone took my hyperbole as an excuse to accuse me of accusing them of some outrageous things. I once had to "defend" myself after "accusing" someone of being a shape-shifting spider and consort of Shelob. I was making fun of the "disguised reptoid" conspiracy theory at the time and things went off the rails.
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Old 11th August 2017, 10:58 PM   #335
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General reply.

I tried the Million Dollar challenge and failed at step one. It was more an exercise in calculating odds which many did not seem to know how to do. It confirmed to me that "tests' do not work. I said so before, and I wondered if an exception would be made. It was not.

The suggestion that I can manufacture a special fungal-type pathogen that will spread slowly and weaken immune systems is a fairy tale.

My personal hit rate IS high. I just do not have proof.

I am not looking for death and destruction for the sake for death and destruction. Have a look at North Korea WW3 thread. There the cards say that WW3 will not happen, but NK will be defeated.
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Old 11th August 2017, 11:30 PM   #336
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
General reply.

I tried the Million Dollar challenge and failed at step one. It was more an exercise in calculating odds which many did not seem to know how to do. It confirmed to me that "tests' do not work. I said so before, and I wondered if an exception would be made. It was not.
Did the nasty sceptics not agree that you were special? Aw, diddums.

Quote:
The suggestion that I can manufacture a special fungal-type pathogen that will spread slowly and weaken immune systems is a fairy tale.
The suggestion that anyone can supernaturally predict that a special fungal-type pathogen will spread slowly and weaken immune systems is a fairy tale.

Is that the "global health problem" you're predicting, btw? Because that's much more specific than what's currently in your list, and would consequently be much more impressive if it came true. Would you like me to change it? The downside, of course, is that any other kind of global health problem that emerged before the end of 2017 would not give you a hit. Your choice.

Quote:
My personal hit rate IS high. I just do not have proof.
If you don't have proof then you cannot possibly know that your hit rate is high. This is the mistake all the MDC applicants made: the test was always to provide proof to convince other people of what they were already (unjustifiably) convinced. The tests (which work very well) always showed that they were actually fooling themselves.

Quote:
I am not looking for death and destruction for the sake for death and destruction. Have a look at North Korea WW3 thread. There the cards say that WW3 will not happen, but NK will be defeated.
What an amazing coincidence, that's my prediction too.

Over five years you've been posting here, PartSkeptic, and you still don't seem to have learned a damn thing.

ETA: BTW PS: Do you want me to put "WW3 will not happen, but NK will be defeated" on your list of predictions that I'm tracking? You'd need to specify exactly what you mean by defeated (a successful invasion from the South? Regime change by external assassin/internal military coup/popular rebellion/nuclear strike?) and a date by which this event will have occurred.
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Last edited by Pixel42; 12th August 2017 at 12:43 AM.
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Old 12th August 2017, 01:49 AM   #337
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
ETA: BTW PS: Do you want me to put "WW3 will not happen, but NK will be defeated" on your list of predictions that I'm tracking? You'd need to specify exactly what you mean by defeated (a successful invasion from the South? Regime change by external assassin/internal military coup/popular rebellion/nuclear strike?) and a date by which this event will have occurred.
I've found the post PartSkeptic is referring to:

Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Since none of you are any good at Tarot cards, I thought I would use them to ask questions.

1. Will there be significant conflict between the US and NK in the next six months? - Yes.

2. Will it escalate to include China? - No.

3. Will a nuke be used? - Yes.

4. In which month? - September 2017

5. Who will use the nuke first? - USA.

Okay that is what the cards say. No interpretation needed. Definite answers.

My take - Just using my logic and not anything else.

A. NK is a threat that has grown quicker than expected.
B. Ignoring it will not make it go away.
C. Conventional war is in NK's favor.
D. Trump does not believe in going in small.
E. A nuclear strike will tell NK and the world that the US means business.
F. China says it will not tolerate a first US strike, but it will not risk war with Trump.
G. If NK does not surrender, more nukes may be threatened/used.

Some other thoughts.
China is okay with NK taking on the US. It may drain the USA and get rid of the NK & SK problem. They may refuse to strike the US in return for a withdrawal of US forces from the region. The US gains and so does China. Trump looks good. The problem is solved for both China and the US. Trump can reduce military spending while looking strong.
That's certainly specific enough to add to the list. I'll do so.
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Old 12th August 2017, 01:54 AM   #338
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Here's the updated list:

Quote:
1. Trump will be chosen as Republican candidate. Status: Hit
2. Trump will win the Presidential election. Status: Hit
3. Trump will be sworn in as President. Status: Hit
4. There will be a very surprising event between 2 and 3. Status: Miss
5. A serious global health problem will be apparent by the end of 2017. Status: Pending
6. Trump will serve a full term. Status: Pending
7. Trump will do well. Status: Pending
8. 5 will be the start of a pandemic that will kill 50% of the population by 2027. Status: Pending
9. The USA will make a nuclear attack on North Korea in September 2017. Status: Pending
10. 9 will not escalate to WW3/war with China. Status: Pending

Current score: 3 hits, 1 miss, 6 pending. Hit rate 75%
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Old 12th August 2017, 03:04 AM   #339
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
(snip)

ETA: BTW PS: Do you want me to put "WW3 will not happen, but NK will be defeated" on your list of predictions that I'm tracking? You'd need to specify exactly what you mean by defeated (a successful invasion from the South? Regime change by external assassin/internal military coup/popular rebellion/nuclear strike?) and a date by which this event will have occurred.

You can put it on the list. It was the outcome of another spread that I did.

The NK nuclear threat will be ended within a year from now.
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Old 12th August 2017, 03:06 AM   #340
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
(snip)
Over five years you've been posting here, PartSkeptic, and you still don't seem to have learned a damn thing.
(snip)

Your opinion. And wrong as usual.
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Old 12th August 2017, 03:30 AM   #341
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
The NK nuclear threat will be ended within a year from now.
Is this a separate prediction you want put on the list? Do you want to change the wording of a prediction that's already on the list to this? Or what?
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Old 12th August 2017, 06:37 AM   #342
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Is this a separate prediction you want put on the list? Do you want to change the wording of a prediction that's already on the list to this? Or what?

Separate prediction. It is not covered by the others. It is the outcome of the conflict with North Korea.

11. The NK nuclear threat will be ended within a year from now.
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Old 12th August 2017, 06:55 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Here's the updated list:
Quote:
1. Trump will be chosen as Republican candidate. Status: Hit
2. Trump will win the Presidential election. Status: Hit
3. Trump will be sworn in as President. Status: Hit
4. There will be a very surprising event between 2 and 3. Status: Miss
5. A serious global health problem will be apparent by the end of 2017. Status: Pending
6. Trump will serve a full term. Status: Pending
7. Trump will do well. Status: Pending
8. 5 will be the start of a pandemic that will kill 50% of the population by 2027. Status: Pending
9. The USA will make a nuclear attack on North Korea in September 2017. Status: Pending
10. 9 will not escalate to WW3/war with China. Status: Pending

Current score: 3 hits, 1 miss, 6 pending. Hit rate 75%
You are using weasel-logic on number 4. Look at my concrete predictions.

1. Trump gets nominated.
2. Trump wins the election
3. Trump gets sworn in.
4. Trump serves 4 years
5. Trump does well.

Your number 4 was not a Tarot card prediction and I said so. You have falsely inserted it.

The cards said that there would be serious opposition. There was and is. There was the email saga. The Antony Wiener saga. The Dem email hack. There were riots. There are accusations of Russian collusion.

Any surprising event was musing on my part and I said so. But not that far wrong.

Be honest now. Your bias is clouding your judgment.
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Old 12th August 2017, 07:13 AM   #344
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Separate prediction. It is not covered by the others. It is the outcome of the conflict with North Korea.

11. The NK nuclear threat will be ended within a year from now.
OK.

Quote:
1. Trump will be chosen as Republican candidate. Status: Hit
2. Trump will win the Presidential election. Status: Hit
3. Trump will be sworn in as President. Status: Hit
4. There will be a very surprising event between 2 and 3. Status: Miss
5. A serious global health problem will be apparent by the end of 2017. Status: Pending
6. Trump will serve a full term. Status: Pending
7. Trump will do well. Status: Pending
8. 5 will be the start of a pandemic that will kill 50% of the population by 2027. Status: Pending
9. The USA will make a nuclear attack on North Korea in September 2017. Status: Pending
10. 9 will not escalate to WW3/war with China. Status: Pending
11. The North Korean nuclear threat will be ended by 12th August 2018. Status: Pending

Current score: 3 hits, 1 miss, 7 pending. Hit rate 75%
Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Your number 4 was not a Tarot card prediction and I said so.
I made a list of the predictions I noticed you'd made over several threads and quite a long period of time. I don't give a toss where you got them from. This one I remember particularly because it prompted quite a lot of discussion about what constituted a surprising event, with you being typically hard to pin down, though you were adamant we'd know it when it happened. Well we didn't. I don't recall you expressing any more doubt about it than any of the others but if you did, tough.

I've been very generous in giving you (2) and (3) as separate hits, so be grateful.
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Old 12th August 2017, 07:40 AM   #345
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
5. Trump does well.
By what criteria? This is exactly one of those "predictions" that can be made to fit practically any situation. There is a non-negligible fraction of Americans who still believe Trump is doing well now, although I think you'd have a hard time posturing that as a proposition that would garner wide agreement worldwide.

Quote:
The cards said that there would be serious opposition.
Bwahaha! You are honestly claiming to have predicted "serious opposition" to the notion of a Trump presidency, and that this qualifies you as some sort of sage? Were you living in a cave for the past three years? Because the rest of the world wasn't. Trump has been making noises for years about wanting to run for President, and there was always opposition to that.

Quote:
Any surprising event was musing on my part and I said so. But not that far wrong.
The notion that there can be an acceptable distance from wrong and still count as a win is exactly what self-proclaimed prophecy is all about. The degree of distance is exactly the statistics-versus-intuition gap that a lot of fringe nonsense fits into.

Quote:
Be honest now. Your bias is clouding your judgment.
And here's the guy who's "comfortable with himself" trying to shame people away from testing the special gift he says he has -- that thing that makes him special, even though he's obviously not trying to proclaim his own greatness.

You should really listen to yourself. Oh, and what does this have to do with the end times?
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Old 12th August 2017, 11:41 AM   #346
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
By what criteria?
The very question that was asked when this prediction was made. Needless to say no good answer was forthcoming.

Quote:
And here's the guy who's "comfortable with himself" trying to shame people away from testing the special gift he says he has -- that thing that makes him special, even though he's obviously not trying to proclaim his own greatness.
I wonder if PartSkeptic has enough self awareness to admit that he would not be protesting that this particular prediction should not be on the list if something very surprising had happened, and I had it as a hit instead of a miss?
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Old 12th August 2017, 01:39 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
You are using weasel-logic on number 4. Look at my concrete predictions.

1. Trump gets nominated.
2. Trump wins the election
3. Trump gets sworn in.
4. Trump serves 4 years
5. Trump does well.

Your number 4 was not a Tarot card prediction and I said so. You have falsely inserted it.

The cards said that there would be serious opposition. There was and is. There was the email saga. The Antony Wiener saga. The Dem email hack. There were riots. There are accusations of Russian collusion.

Any surprising event was musing on my part and I said so. But not that far wrong.

Be honest now. Your bias is clouding your judgment.
Was Trump the nominee or presumptive nominee when you made the prediction? If so you predicted a binary choice. Who cares?

How many people have been elected president and not sworn in? Oh, is it none? You predicted something that has never happened before wasn't going to happen. Hardly a prediction.

What does do well mean? Your prediction is not good enough. Does he have success on a legislative agenda? Does he have a major policy success? What specifically will he accomplish?

Maybe you could stop patting yourself on the back until you actually make a prediction where there's even a hint of a possibility that your silly little cards told you something useful.
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Old 12th August 2017, 02:57 PM   #348
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At this point, the PartSkeptic predictions really should be split off to a new thread. They're tarot card predictions about Trump and North Korea, not a discussion about the End Times.
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Old 12th August 2017, 11:05 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
At this point, the PartSkeptic predictions really should be split off to a new thread. They're tarot card predictions about Trump and North Korea, not a discussion about the End Times.
I'm afraid that's mostly my fault, his initial posts about his "everybody's going to die in a pandemic" prediction were reasonably on topic, I started the derail by bringing the rest of his predictions into it. I'll go through the thread to find the relevant posts then report the first one and suggest they be moved to a new split thread in the General Scepticism subforum.
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Old 12th August 2017, 11:29 PM   #350
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No need to split. Nothing further to discuss. I pointed people towards the NK WW3 thread.

BTW: if a nuclear attack on North Korea is not a sign of end times, then what is? If in September it seems an appropriate precursor.

"Signs" are "omens". Omens can be foretold and foreseen by different methods. Don't like Tarot. Tough.
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Old 12th August 2017, 11:43 PM   #351
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
I made a list of the predictions I noticed you'd made over several threads and quite a long period of time. I don't give a toss where you got them from. This one I remember particularly because it prompted quite a lot of discussion about what constituted a surprising event, with you being typically hard to pin down, though you were adamant we'd know it when it happened. Well we didn't. I don't recall you expressing any more doubt about it than any of the others but if you did, tough.

I've been very generous in giving you (2) and (3) as separate hits, so be grateful.

NO. You are deliberately conflating personal opinion with a Tarot prediction. And in your own words, you don't give a toss. YOU are the "decider" on what you deem a prediction or not.

And very specifically I said that I was musing. You now say you don't recall.

I note you do not include the three minor predictions I made using Tarot cards that came out right. If I told you they were wrong you would have. That is called bias.

My last word on the accuracy of my Tarot predictions.

Back to the subject.

End times may be a mix of many catastrophes:

War, Famine, Disease, Climate, Financial collapse, Planetary strike, Earthquakes and Volcanoes.

A number of these are in the pipeline, and others are overdue. The Yellowstone super-volcano for one.
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Old 12th August 2017, 11:46 PM   #352
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I can't actually find the post in which I originally compiled the complete list of PartSkeptic's predictions as I can't remember which thread it was in. Taking out the posts in this one that are not about the end of the world (or something close to it) to produce two reasonably coherent threads would be difficult. What I might do is start a new thread in GS&P with the current list as the OP, then we can use that one to continue tracking them and not derail this one any further.
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Old 12th August 2017, 11:53 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
I note you do not include the three minor predictions I made using Tarot cards that came out right.
I included all those I could remember and find where the prediction was made before the event so the accuracy could be confirmed, but it's entirely possible I missed some. By all means point me to any others, and I'll add them to the list.
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Old 13th August 2017, 12:09 AM   #354
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I also can't find the discussion about the "very surprising event", so I can't confirm whether PartSkeptic's recollection of it is more or less accurate than mine. I'm quite sure he wouldn't be objecting to its inclusion if it had been a hit regardless of how unsure of it he was when he made it, but to avoid argument going forward it might be best to just drop it from the list.
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Old 13th August 2017, 01:07 AM   #355
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
No need to split. Nothing further to discuss. I pointed people towards the NK WW3 thread.

BTW: if a nuclear attack on North Korea is not a sign of end times, then what is? If in September it seems an appropriate precursor.

"Signs" are "omens". Omens can be foretold and foreseen by different methods. Don't like Tarot. Tough.
Funny how that only came up after discussions of war with North Korea started hitting the news. Way to go out on a limb there sparky.
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Old 13th August 2017, 01:07 AM   #356
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One thing I did find whilst searching for previous discussions were several about the Trump predictions, pointing out for example that the "Trump will win the nomination" one was made when that was pretty much a foregone conclusion etc. Rather than continue to argue the pros and cons of previous predictions perhaps it would be best to track just the recent apocalyptic ones in this thread, and the remaining Trump ones in the Trump thread. We'd then be on topic.

So the list for this thread would be:

Quote:
1. A serious global health problem will be apparent by the end of 2017. Status: Pending
2. 1 will be the start of a pandemic that will kill 50% of the population by 2027. Status: Pending
3. The USA will make a pre-emptive nuclear attack on North Korea in September 2017. Status: Pending
4. 3 will not escalate to WW3/war with China. Status: Pending
5. The North Korean nuclear threat will be ended by 12th August 2018. Status: Pending
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Old 13th August 2017, 09:58 AM   #357
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
BTW: if a nuclear attack on North Korea is not a sign of end times, then what is?
It's just another "War and rumor of war." You know, the same type of thing that's been happening since 10 thousand years before that particular "prophecy" was made. The only difference would be the weapons.



This signature is intended to irritate people.
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Old 13th August 2017, 12:08 PM   #358
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Seemed appropriate!


http://img.thedailybeast.com/image/u...w-tease_avkdhl
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Old 19th August 2017, 10:43 PM   #359
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This is not valid for my prediction of a fungal-related pandemic, but it is possible that it is related to fungal infections.

It is known that anti-fungal medications are effective at preventing colon cancer - but they do not know why. My late wife who had systemic histoplasmosis died from colon cancer which had spread to the liver.

Quote:
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/08/he...udy/index.html

Church, who was not involved in the new study, said he has seen this trend in death rates up close. Last year, on separate occasions, Church saw two 36-year-olds with stage IV colon cancer, he said.

In both of those patients, who had no relation to each other, the cancer spread to their livers, making it so he couldn't operate. Both died, he said.

"They both had young families, both little girls, and they lost their father in one case and their mother in the other, forever, because of this nasty disease when it's advanced," Church said.

"It makes a big impact on me, and it makes me keenly interested in trying to solve this issue," he said. "Everybody in colorectal surgical circles is seeing increased incidence of colon cancer in the young, defined as younger than 50."
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Old 19th August 2017, 11:07 PM   #360
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
This is not valid for my prediction of a fungal-related pandemic, but it is possible that it is related to fungal infections.

It is known that anti-fungal medications are effective at preventing colon cancer - but they do not know why. My late wife who had systemic histoplasmosis died from colon cancer which had spread to the liver.
Wait. So you had histoplasmosis, some randomer in the doctors waiting room had histoplasmosis and now your wife had histoplasmosis.

What? Have you your very own epidemic going on?

As for your wife, I'm sorry she died, but she died from cancer. You said so yourself.
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