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Old 19th June 2017, 11:01 PM   #121
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Y'all failed Map Reading Class?? Look again. She made the hard-to-starboard move and proceeded for a few minutes then went into what looks like the initial maneuver to bring her about (you arc a bit to starboard to commence a turning circle), then straightened her course to NNE to NE and proceeded about 10 km (roughly twenty minutes, I reckon) the came about and headed back to the crash site.

I didn't do a screen capture but the navies will have the timeline I originally commented on. She was proceeding at about 18 knots at the time of the collision. She did not slow her engines at that time. Why? To make that starboard maneuver you need full power... to make any tight maneuver you need the engines working the screws at their max. She did, however, slow and I think that's at the top of that turn you see before she's heading south, which she did at optimal speed and then slowed to a near stop again..... RIGHT AT THE COLLISION SITE.

The maps of the course are worthless unless we have time stamps. The crazies on Alt Dot Nutzos websites have her circling about to hunt down the Fitzgerald. Yeah, of course. I'm going to go hard to starboard for no reason, plow northwards for 10 km, then bring her about at my glorious maximum of 18 knots to ram a heavily armed warship that can do double my speed. Sure I am.

I was going on the 2;20 collision time. But 1:30 makes more sense
.
Initial 90 to starboard is the collision under Autopilot. Either AP or crew brings back on course while they check damage. Then do 180 at 2:00 to return to assist. Hard to check without scale but collision to U-turn appears longer than Oshima Island, so something like 15Km. Half an hour at 18kts seems about right. Back at collision site 2:20, DDG rejects assistance, so Crystal turns north to meet original course.
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Old 19th June 2017, 11:13 PM   #122
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It looks bad for the Fitzgerald. Basically they managed to get T-boned by a big, slow ship traveling in a straight line. Weather was clear and there was a half moon. On the starboard side fwiw, meaning the other ship had right-of-way. It's almost inconceivable if everyone was doing their job as they should have been. So what were they doing instead?

It is a stealth ship, btw, so it's possible maybe that it didn't show up on the other ship's radar. But if you know that other ships cannot see you, all the more reason to make sure that you see them.
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Old 19th June 2017, 11:16 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by Noztradamus View Post
I was going on the 2;20 collision time. But 1:30 makes more sense
.
Initial 90 to starboard is the collision under Autopilot. Either AP or crew brings back on course while they check damage. Then do 180 at 2:00 to return to assist. Hard to check without scale but collision to U-turn appears longer than Oshima Island, so something like 15Km. Half an hour at 18kts seems about right. Back at collision site 2:20, DDG rejects assistance, so Crystal turns north to meet original course.
Looking again.... That first leg (and subsequent SW bound 2nd leg) doesn't look like 10 km... maybe 8? Hard to say. I can't find the original posts that showed the minute-by-minute timeline of the Crystal, but I know she slowed to an almost stop twice. Maybe once northbound, then turned (explaining the tight-ish U turn) and headed south at a little better speed and came to another near stop? This is speculation but I'll be damned if I can find the time graphics I'd originally seen. Memory being what it is (faulty at best) I can't be certain.
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Old 19th June 2017, 11:37 PM   #124
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Looking again.... That first leg (and subsequent SW bound 2nd leg) doesn't look like 10 km... maybe 8? Hard to say. I can't find the original posts that showed the minute-by-minute timeline of the Crystal, but I know she slowed to an almost stop twice. Maybe once northbound, then turned (explaining the tight-ish U turn) and headed south at a little better speed and came to another near stop? This is speculation but I'll be damned if I can find the time graphics I'd originally seen. Memory being what it is (faulty at best) I can't be certain.
No I'm right, 7 teeth on my fish descaler: Oshima 11km wide at 4+. So c.15km
\\http://forums.sailinganarchy.com/upl...160ef24856.JPG

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Old 20th June 2017, 12:46 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by Noztradamus View Post
No I'm right, 7 teeth on my fish descaler: Oshima 11km wide at 4+. So c.15km
\\http://forums.sailinganarchy.com/upl...160ef24856.JPG

Who needs to Retake Map Reading Class now?
I'm more concerned about the length of the two legs the Crystal made. Really doesn't matter without the speed. 8 km or 10 km, it could be upwards of 45 minutes to an hour depending on whether she was doing a constant speed or was slowing and then speeding up/cruising. Like turning, you don't do a Dodge Charger "zero to sixty in 6 seconds" in those big tubs.

It still works best with an actual crash at 1:30 then the north/south run putting her back at the Fitzgerald's position around 2:20. Sadly, no deranged Pinoy on the bridge screaming "Ramming Speed, Maggots!"
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Old 20th June 2017, 02:31 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I was reading the opinion of a guy from Jane's who looked at the course map. He thinks that the Crystal was on autopilot and that nobody was watching anything and everyone may have been asleep. He says the U-turn happens right after the collision and though at that point is being manually steered the autopilot is still not turned off. The U-turn was done to go back and see what they had hit. Then the Crystal speeds up and resumes its original course... still on autopilot. He thinks nobody shut off the autopilot, or they didn't know how to do it. He says that no captain would have quickly powered away after learning that they had hit a Navy ship. Apparently, only about 10 minutes lapsed between the time of collision and the speeding up and corrected resumption of the course to their destination.

I have no idea if any of that makes sense, or is possible.

Also earlier today I read an article saying that the entire crew is Filipino.

It doesn't make sense.

If the Crystal was on autopilot she would have been maintaining a relatively straight course with no sudden turns. Not that she could make any sudden turns anyway.

If she was on a relatively straight course and the Fitzgerald crossed her bow closely enough to get rammed then the Fitzgerald was definitely at fault.

There would be no 'maybe' about that.
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Old 20th June 2017, 05:38 AM   #127
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Specifically, the Fitzgerald has an AN/SPS-67 surface scanning radar with a range of 104 km (56.2 nmi). It's probably not that much better than comparable civilian surface-search radars, but should be more than adequate for the job. The ACX Crystal would have had a similar radar. Both ships should have been well aware of all the other surface traffic in the area, including heading and speed data, and should have been able to plot their courses accordingly.
Yes they have radar.
However, we don't know what their mission was. If they were tracking a Russian submarine for example, they would not be giving their location up by sending out what they might have considered unnecessary electronic signatures.

A submarine has an antennae array that can pick up active radar from ships, it is completely passive, so it could be sitting under the surface, waiting for a Destroyer to send out an active radar signal. If the Destroyer was in a game of cat and mouse with a sub, total listening mode, in other words, they may not have been utilizing their radar.

three problems with this:
1. the Captain probably would have been on deck if they were actively hunting.
2. they probably would have a rule about sending an active radar ping at fixed intervals to locate shipping since they were in a busy shipping lane.
3. IF they were hunting a sub, they would probably have had their towed array sonar deployed, and would have heard the drive signature of the shipping vessel from miles away.

This leaves the most likely scenario: Since shipping vessels have transponders giving out location information, someone was not paying attention to, or the destroyer's plotting was malfunctioning.
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Old 20th June 2017, 05:47 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Which guy from Jane's? Link, please? Anyone can say they are from Jane's. It's puzzling how a "guy from Jane's" is commenting, but not on the Jane's news site.

Be that as it may... even if it's Jane, herself (cough) it would depend on the timeline being used. Are they working from the Coast Guard timeline - that the collision actually occurred at 1:30(roughly) or the initial report that it was around 2:15 to 2:30.

If the collision was later, then the OMG LOOKIT THAT U TURN is very suspicious. If the collision occurs as the JCG says, at 1:30, then you need to look at the course map. I believe that sharp right turn is the collision.

First Mate: Cap'n that navy guy isn't moving to port it looks like he's going to try to pass in front of us!

Captain: Hard Starboard! Hard Starboard.

That track works only with that scenario unless we imagine that the auto-pilot was drinking on the job and electronically decided to make a near-impossible maneuver.

Oh, and "everybody must've been asleep"??!! Really??!! Someone from Jane's said that??!!
Steffan Watkins. IT Security Consultant, Independant OSINT Analyst, Freelancer, Researcher, Historian.

He is convinced that nobody was driving the Crystal based on its behavior. After the collision, it accelerates away and does not slow or turn for 15 minutes. He says no captain would have done that after hitting a Navy ship. He thinks it took 15 minutes for the captain to take control after the collision. He suspects the guy was asleep. Regardless, nobody took control until 15 minutes after collision. It remained on autopilot that whole time.

https://mobile.twitter.com/steffanwatkins?lang=en

Detailed mapping with time, speed, course, etc. Also includes a narrative and opinion.

http://www.vesselofinterest.com/2017...-with-uss.html
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Old 20th June 2017, 05:57 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
It doesn't make sense.

If the Crystal was on autopilot she would have been maintaining a relatively straight course with no sudden turns. Not that she could make any sudden turns anyway.
The Crystal was on a straight and steady course until the moment of impact. The collision turned and pushed her off course and slowed her. Then the autopilot accelerates her and begins bringing her back on the original course. The autopilot doesn't care about the collision and goes back to doing its business. No person is driving. No person begins to control the Crystal until 15 minutes after impact.

Watkins thinks that Crystal did not call the Coast Guard for an hour after impact because it took that long for them to learn what they had hit - because nobody was looking or driving her. He actually speculates that the captain and crew were sleeping.
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Old 20th June 2017, 06:02 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Steffan Watkins. IT Security Consultant, Independant OSINT Analyst, Freelancer, Researcher, Historian.
Not exactly suitable credentials.
Some bloke who works in IT says...
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Old 20th June 2017, 06:03 AM   #131
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Sound strange to me, why would they not jump on the bridge immediately after collision and see lights of the other ship in distance? 15 minutes is slooooow as a reaction time.
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Old 20th June 2017, 06:13 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Not exactly suitable credentials.
Some bloke who works in IT says...
Be careful. Jane's Intelligence thinks highly enough to use him for OSINT analysis.

He is giving his opinion of what happened based on analyzing the highly detailed course and behavior of the Crystal. Attack his analysis rather than the person.
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Old 20th June 2017, 06:15 AM   #133
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
This leaves the most likely scenario: Since shipping vessels have transponders giving out location information, someone was not paying attention to, or the destroyer's plotting was malfunctioning.
Don't ships post lookouts any more (lookouts as in "blokes with binoculars")?
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Old 20th June 2017, 06:22 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
Sound strange to me, why would they not jump on the bridge immediately after collision and see lights of the other ship in distance? 15 minutes is slooooow as a reaction time.
Watkins speculates that the Crystal probably thought they hit a derelict barge with nobody on board that barge. That would have explained why a collision wasn't avoided by the other vessel. There may not have been an urgency, or who knows, maybe the captain normally walks at snail pace.

It seems to have taken about an hour after collision for the Crystal to learn that it had hit a Navy ship.
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Old 20th June 2017, 06:38 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Be careful. Jane's Intelligence thinks highly enough to use him for OSINT analysis.

He is giving his opinion of what happened based on analyzing the highly detailed course and behavior of the Crystal. Attack his analysis rather than the person.
Not much point me doing that as I, too, am just some bloke who works in IT.
You quoted his credentials, which say nothing about him being qualified to say the things he has.

OSINT applies a huge number of fields...that's sort of the point.
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Old 20th June 2017, 06:47 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by TX50 View Post
Don't ships post lookouts any more (lookouts as in "blokes with binoculars")?
The 'Lookout' would be posted over a plotting screen, showing all contacts within range, that are within the sensory capabilities. If they were radar-blind due to mission requirements, then their passive listening capabilities should have picked up the container ship. In fact, once the noise signature of the propeller drive, on the container ship , was detected by their listening equipment, they should have been able to ID the ship by name.
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Old 20th June 2017, 06:59 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
The 'Lookout' would be posted over a plotting screen, showing all contacts within range, that are within the sensory capabilities. If they were radar-blind due to mission requirements, then their passive listening capabilities should have picked up the container ship. In fact, once the noise signature of the propeller drive, on the container ship , was detected by their listening equipment, they should have been able to ID the ship by name.
But people in this thread have said that the Navy will always have bodies on deck using eyeballs.
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Old 20th June 2017, 07:04 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Not much point me doing that as I, too, am just some bloke who works in IT.
You quoted his credentials, which say nothing about him being qualified to say the things he has.

OSINT applies a huge number of fields...that's sort of the point.
His specialty seems to be Vessel Tracking. Jane's has published his work.

It seems silly to keep banging on this guy rather than his work.
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Old 20th June 2017, 07:32 AM   #139
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
But people in this thread have said that the Navy will always have bodies on deck using eyeballs.

If this was at night, I would expect the watch would have been similar to the Fog Lookout shown here:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita.../12018_ch3.pdf
Quote:
Fog lookouts are required during fog or reduced
visibility. The watch is stood in those locations where approaching ships can best be seen or heard (normally
in the bows).
The fog lookouts stand a vigilant watch to
detect, either by hearing fog signals or actually sighting,
approaching ships or craft. Posting and training of fog
lookouts will, as a minimum, meet the requirements of
the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions
at Sea. This watch will consist of two personnel—one
phone talker and one lookout. The addition of the phone
talker allows the fog lookout to work without his or her
hearing being impaired by wearing sound-powered
phones. As with other lookouts, the fog lookouts are in
contact with the OOD through the bridge phone talker
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Old 20th June 2017, 08:53 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Be careful. Jane's Intelligence thinks highly enough to use him for OSINT analysis.

He is giving his opinion of what happened based on analyzing the highly detailed course and behavior of the Crystal. Attack his analysis rather than the person.
Jane's published one of his papers. He's not actually "of Jane's". Major distinction. I agree with him on the course. The "hard starboard" move was the collision and that's apparently the 01:30 am local time "marker" for purposes of the discussion.

As to the auto-pilot? I'm still not certain. And I think he's foolish if he actually said "and everyone was asleep". They only have a crew of 20, but they certainly aren't ever all sleeping, and I sincerely doubt that the captain is in bed as they head into Tokyo Bay, about an hour from the heavy traffic at Yokohoma.

Whether the vessel was on auto-pilot or not does not change the collision itself. I'm pointing out the flaws in the interpretation of the route to get rid of the conspiracy mongers saying it's a "suspicious" path. It was AFTER the collision. The important question is where the Fitzgerald came from and how it wound up abeam of the Crystal.

I also disagree that the ACX Crystal captain is in deep doo-doo. I think it far more likely that the Fitzgeral captain is. There is no reason for them to be trying to overtake and pass in front of the Crystal. The tactical blame will be pointed at whomever was in charge on the bridge but like the Crystal, the old man shouldn't have been in bed heading into Tokyo Bay. Ultimately it's his command and he will be deemed by the USN to be responsible.
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Old 20th June 2017, 09:02 AM   #141
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Ultimately it's his command and he will be deemed by the USN to be responsible.
Harsh but fair. The people in these jobs have the stones to take it though.

Don't you wish politics worked like that?
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Old 20th June 2017, 09:03 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
His specialty seems to be Vessel Tracking. Jane's has published his work.

It seems silly to keep banging on this guy rather than his work.
No, that's fair enough.
It was more to do with the credentials you posted (which were from his Twitter by the looks of it?). It just didn't scream "expert"...

I'm just overly-suspicious.
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Old 20th June 2017, 09:06 AM   #143
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Also , when you say the Fitz' Captain was "in bed", that is different than civilian 'in bed'.

Naval officers often get their sleep fulfilled in 15 minute chunks.

He will be dinged heavily for this no matter who was at fault officially.
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Old 20th June 2017, 09:12 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
The tactical blame will be pointed at whomever was in charge on the bridge but like the Crystal, the old man shouldn't have been in bed heading into Tokyo Bay. Ultimately it's his command and he will be deemed by the USN to be responsible.
I was under the impression they were outbound, does anyone know?
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Old 20th June 2017, 09:20 AM   #145
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I didn't see these posted:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Fi...2017-06-16.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Fi...-16_detail.png
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Old 20th June 2017, 09:24 AM   #146
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I was under the impression they were outbound, does anyone know?
Ya know.... I'm not sure. Can't say if I read that somewhere or if I just assumed it. Trying to dart across their bow makes more sense if they were outbound, I dare say.
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