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Tags lotteries , math puzzles , probability , probability puzzles

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Old 4th March 2012, 07:13 PM   #241
Southwind17
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Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B View Post
WOW! What are the chances of that???

You're welcome, BTW!
Hey, credit and gratitude where they're due, and all that!
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Old 21st March 2012, 09:50 PM   #242
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MegaMillions has rolled quite bit:
1 in 175 million chance of
winning 137 million dollars.

Maybe I'll buy a ticket.
Won't I look silly if I win after making all those posts?

Any advice on what numbers to play?

Last edited by Ladewig; 21st March 2012 at 09:54 PM.
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Old 21st March 2012, 10:33 PM   #243
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
MegaMillions has rolled quite bit:
1 in 175 million chance of
winning 137 million dollars.

Maybe I'll buy a ticket.
Won't I look silly if I win after making all those posts?
Small price to pay. PM me if you win - I'll email you my account details for the 'advisory' commission.
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Old 22nd March 2012, 03:29 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
Any advice on what numbers to play?

In just looking at the last two drawings, when all the numbers were low there were 68 tickets that picked the winning combination. When all the numbs were high, there were only 7. If that pattern is confirmed on the other drawings it would mean you should stay away from low numbers if you want to maximize your winnings.
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Old 22nd March 2012, 03:38 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by Dan O. View Post
In just looking at the last two drawings, when all the numbers were low there were 68 tickets that picked the winning combination. When all the numbs were high, there were only 7. If that pattern is confirmed on the other drawings it would mean you should stay away from low numbers if you want to maximize your winnings.
That's torn it now Ladewig - LOW numbers now ... LOW numbers. Oh no, HIGH numbers now ... HIGH numbers. Oh no, LOW numbers now ...
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Old 22nd March 2012, 04:59 AM   #246
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
MegaMillions has rolled quite bit:
1 in 175 million chance of
winning 137 million dollars.

How is the prize paid out?

One thinQuote by Ben Goldacre: "You cannot reason people out of a position ...
www.goodreads.com/quotes/show/145760
27 people liked this quote by Ben Goldacre: 'You cannot reason people out of a position that they did not reason themselves into.' that's always bugged me is the false or at least misleading advertising that lotteries are allowed to put out there.

For instance, telling someone the prize is $1,000,000, but then telling them it has to be paid out over 20 years, is bait and switch. While no one in their right mind would mind $50,000 a year for 20 years, it's a far cry from being handed a million dollars, even considering the up front taxes.

In the US, most lotteries will give you a lump sum payment as an option, but it is a markedly reduced amount from the advertized jackpot.

No other financial device would be allowed to overstate the actual value of a return in this way.

It's a racket.
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Old 22nd March 2012, 05:04 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by Dan O. View Post
In just looking at the last two drawings, when all the numbers were low there were 68 tickets that picked the winning combination. When all the numbs were high, there were only 7. If that pattern is confirmed on the other drawings it would mean you should stay away from low numbers if you want to maximize your winnings.
Well, that would have worked, but for the fact that you just blabbed a perceived pattern - one that I'm sure no one else on the planet noticed.

Now everyone will stay away from those low numbers, meaning that those are exactly the ones to choose.

Unless this post is more widely read than I figure, in which case don't choose the low ones - they'll be...

Wait. Now I'M confused!
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Old 22nd March 2012, 09:06 AM   #248
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If everybody applied perfect reasoning, there might be a dilemma. But since the majority of these people regularly play the lottery, we are guaranteed that there is little if any reasoning being applied.
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Old 22nd March 2012, 10:06 AM   #249
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Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B View Post
How is the prize paid out?
.
I apologize. I am usually much more precise when quoting figures such as this one.

$137 million is the lump sum after federal taxes.

$205 is lump sum before taxes.

$290 is the before taxes annuity payout total. (that's the one that appears in big type on the billboards).

Last edited by Ladewig; 22nd March 2012 at 10:18 AM.
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Old 22nd March 2012, 10:12 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by Dan O. View Post
In just looking at the last two drawings, when all the numbers were low there were 68 tickets that picked the winning combination. When all the numbs were high, there were only 7. If that pattern is confirmed on the other drawings it would mean you should stay away from low numbers if you want to maximize your winnings.

Yes. I understand. You want me to play 52, 53, 54, 55, 56 with powerball 46.
Well, I'm off to the convenience store.
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Old 26th March 2012, 09:14 PM   #251
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I bought my ticket too late for that drawing. Now, I am holding a ticket for a 1 in 175 million shot at

$363 million
$260 lump sum
$174 after federal taxes

I am within chipping distance of positive expectation territory. Woot.
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Old 26th March 2012, 10:30 PM   #252
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
I bought my ticket too late for that drawing. Now, I am holding a ticket for a 1 in 175 million shot at

$363 million
$260 lump sum
$174 after federal taxes

I am within chipping distance of positive expectation territory. Woot.
BTW - I just renewed my 13-week multi-play. Turns out I won just enough over the last 13-weeks to pay for the tickets! So, there you go, it IS worthwhile - 13 free chances to get rich!
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Old 26th March 2012, 11:10 PM   #253
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Originally Posted by Southwind17 View Post
BTW - I just renewed my 13-week multi-play. Turns out I won just enough over the last 13-weeks to pay for the tickets! So, there you go, it IS worthwhile - 13 free chances to get rich!
It's even better than that. You have 13 chances to get rich AND 13 chances to get 13 more free chances.
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Old 26th March 2012, 11:14 PM   #254
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Dogbert's take on the subject
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Old 26th March 2012, 11:45 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
It's even better than that. You have 13 chances to get rich AND 13 chances to get 13 more free chances.
Actually, it's even better than that: it could be many more than 13 more free chances (although that does start to eat into the 'richness' side of the equation, if you push it!).
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Old 26th March 2012, 11:49 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Damn - site blocked. I do love the Dogbert humour, and Dilbert. My favourite Dilbert cartoon:

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Old 28th March 2012, 12:09 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
I bought my ticket too late for that drawing. Now, I am holding a ticket for a 1 in 175 million shot at

$363 million
$260 lump sum
$174 after federal taxes

I am within chipping distance of positive expectation territory. Woot.
OMG, it rolled over.

$476 million
$341 million lump sum
$228 million after federal taxes

If one could guarantee a non-split win, then it would be positive expectation.

Last edited by Ladewig; 28th March 2012 at 12:11 AM.
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Old 28th March 2012, 07:03 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
OMG, it rolled over.

$476 million
$341 million lump sum
$228 million after federal taxes

If one could guarantee a non-split win, then it would be positive expectation.
You have to pay tax on a lottery win?
Not so in the EU as far as I'm aware.
If you have to pay tax on a win then are tickets tax deductible if you don't?
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Old 28th March 2012, 07:11 AM   #259
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Originally Posted by Alex Cured View Post
You have to pay tax on a lottery win?
Not so in the EU as far as I'm aware.
If you have to pay tax on a win then are tickets tax deductible if you don't?
In the US, gambling winnings are taxable on the federal level. Its reported on a W2-G. Most states with their own income taxes are based on the federal rules.

Gambling expense is deductible to the extent of winnings.

IOW, if you win a $50,000 jackpot but can document $10,000 in losing tickets, you only pay tax on the difference ($40,000 in this case).

Though illegal, some people will pick up discarded losing tickets (like at a racetrack) and use those to show expenses.

As I said before, I was in a relationship with a compulsive gambler, so I know this first hand.

Last edited by Fast Eddie B; 28th March 2012 at 07:14 AM.
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Old 28th March 2012, 07:40 AM   #260
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BTW, taxes can be a huge issue on game shows.

Good overview here:

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2010/01/...ame-show-winn/
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Old 28th March 2012, 09:58 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B View Post
In the US, gambling winnings are taxable on the federal level. Its reported on a W2-G.
Yes. Nevada casinos must report winnings greater than $1200 to the IRS - they also send you a W2-G form to confirm that they have told the federal government of your winnings.
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Old 21st April 2012, 02:01 PM   #262
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Yesterday in the NZ Lotto the drawn balls were 11, 12, 13, 15, 16. The “missing 14” was the 7 ball. Almost a Royal Flush!

Even with this “unlikely” combination there were three First Division winners. Guess they could have all been computer picked tickets.
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Old 21st April 2014, 09:39 PM   #263
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Advice on what numbers to play: none. They make roughly as much PROFIT as the payouts. In comparison, even a low-paying poker machine pays out seven times the profits. (N.B. I'm saying that they make profits in both, however.)
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Old 22nd April 2014, 05:03 AM   #264
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Wow!

Zombie thread.

Looking back on posts I made about 4 years ago, I made some pretty decent points!
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Old 22nd April 2014, 04:36 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B View Post
Wow!

Zombie thread.

Looking back on posts I made about 4 years ago, I made some pretty decent points!
I thought Alzheimers was setting in, until I realized this is two year old thread.

Good to be reminded of Dilbert's token ring dilemma, though!
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