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Tags Darlie Routier , death penalty cases , murder cases , Texas cases

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Old 31st May 2015, 04:47 PM   #1
Desert Fox
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Darlie Routier

Some people believe strongly in her innocence but I have been listing to a number of counter arguments.

I am against the death penalty because, to be blunt, you can never be 100% sure.

My trouble is, no matter how much I try, I have trouble with somebody coming in just stabbing the kids and then slashing her. Seems much more plausible taht she was involved.

Thoughts, arguments?
Sorry if there has already been a thread on this.
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Old 31st May 2015, 05:44 PM   #2
fuelair
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Originally Posted by Desert Fox View Post
Some people believe strongly in her innocence but I have been listing to a number of counter arguments.

I am against the death penalty because, to be blunt, you can never be 100% sure.

My trouble is, no matter how much I try, I have trouble with somebody coming in just stabbing the kids and then slashing her. Seems much more plausible taht she was involved.

Thoughts, arguments?
Sorry if there has already been a thread on this.
Some data sil vous plait!!
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Old 31st May 2015, 06:05 PM   #3
Ampulla of Vater
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Originally Posted by Desert Fox View Post
Some people believe strongly in her innocence but I have been listing to a number of counter arguments.

I am against the death penalty because, to be blunt, you can never be 100% sure.

My trouble is, no matter how much I try, I have trouble with somebody coming in just stabbing the kids and then slashing her. Seems much more plausible taht she was involved.

Thoughts, arguments?
Sorry if there has already been a thread on this.
I have never thought she was innocent, ever. Anglolawyer thinks she is, but I keep telling him he's wrong!
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Old 31st May 2015, 06:07 PM   #4
Ampulla of Vater
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Originally Posted by fuelair View Post
Some data sil vous plait!!

Start here. There is lots of info about the crime all over the internet.

http://www.darlieroutierfactandfiction.com/
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Old 31st May 2015, 06:30 PM   #5
David Sugar
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Originally Posted by Desert Fox View Post
Some people believe strongly in her innocence but I have been listing to a number of counter arguments.

I am against the death penalty because, to be blunt, you can never be 100% sure.

My trouble is, no matter how much I try, I have trouble with somebody coming in just stabbing the kids and then slashing her. Seems much more plausible taht she was involved.

Thoughts, arguments?
Sorry if there has already been a thread on this.
I am not as certain of Routier's innocence as I am about some others, like Amanda Knox, Kirstin Lobato, Russ Faria but I believe Routier is more likely innocent than guilty. I estimate about a 85-90% chance of innocence.

There are two facts which strongly lead me toward innocence. One is her injuries. I do not believe many people can stab themselves in the neck, barely missing a major artery, nor do I see how someone can inflict injuries that cause so much bruising on her arms. The other reason is that at least one of her sons was still alive when she made the 911 phone call. If she wanted her sons dead, why call 911 before they are dead? Wouldn't she be concerned that her sons will tell the police what happened?

There are other problems with Routier being guilty---the sock found a block away---there is no explanation of how she could have planted that given the time constraints...there is also some (though not much) evidence of an intruder---this includes an unidentified bloody finger print that does not match anyone in the house---and a screen that was cut.

Needless to say, this does not even come close to proven beyond a reasonable doubt.

David
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Old 31st May 2015, 06:35 PM   #6
Charlie Wilkes
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Originally Posted by Desert Fox View Post
Some people believe strongly in her innocence but I have been listing to a number of counter arguments.

I am against the death penalty because, to be blunt, you can never be 100% sure.

My trouble is, no matter how much I try, I have trouble with somebody coming in just stabbing the kids and then slashing her. Seems much more plausible taht she was involved.

Thoughts, arguments?
Sorry if there has already been a thread on this.
I think she did it, but I leave room for a sliver of doubt, and I would welcome real evidence pointing to an alternative. So far I have heard a lot of argumentation, some of it passionate, but I have not seen any good evidence pointing away from Routier.

For me, the most significant incriminating fact is the difference between Routier's injuries vs. those of the kids. That doesn't fit an intruder scenario, and neither does anything else about that crime scene.

The bloody sock... I think she must have planted it before she injured herself and made the call.

The main arguments for Routier's innocence seem to be her alleged good character and the fact that she took good care of the kids. I have looked over quite a few cases of maternal filicide, and I am not convinced. Check out Suzanna Simpson for purposes of comparison.
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Old 31st May 2015, 07:02 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by David Sugar View Post
I am not as certain of Routier's innocence as I am about some others, like Amanda Knox, Kirstin Lobato, Russ Faria but I believe Routier is more likely innocent than guilty. I estimate about a 85-90% chance of innocence.

There are two facts which strongly lead me toward innocence. One is her injuries. I do not believe many people can stab themselves in the neck, barely missing a major artery, nor do I see how someone can inflict injuries that cause so much bruising on her arms. The other reason is that at least one of her sons was still alive when she made the 911 phone call. If she wanted her sons dead, why call 911 before they are dead? Wouldn't she be concerned that her sons will tell the police what happened?

There are other problems with Routier being guilty---the sock found a block away---there is no explanation of how she could have planted that given the time constraints...there is also some (though not much) evidence of an intruder---this includes an unidentified bloody finger print that does not match anyone in the house---and a screen that was cut.

Needless to say, this does not even come close to proven beyond a reasonable doubt.

David
Didn't Susan Smith always take good care of her kids before she drowned them?

If there was some solid evidence of somebody else or even an actual viable suspect, I might shift my position.
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Old 31st May 2015, 09:17 PM   #8
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Here I will list the evidence in this case that I believe is probative, and assign probability values to them. And then calculate the probability of guilt.

Evidence pointing to innocence:
1. Evidence of a break in. There is a cut screen and a bloody finger print that could not be matched to anyone in the house. The evidence of breakin is kind of weak, but there nonetheless. I estimate this evidence as having a probative value of 40% --> Pointing to Routier's innocence for 60% or 40% guilt.

2. Routier's wounds do not appear to be self-inflicted. I am no expert but from the descriptions and pictures I've seen, I think it is unlikely she caused them herself. Guilt value: 35%

3. Routier's sons were alive when she called 911---one was still alive when the police arrived. Why would a murderer call 911 before her victims were dead? She changed her mind? She thought they were dead? or was she not the murderer? guilt value: 25%

4. The bloody sock. It is unclear how Routier could have planted this. An intruder may have used it and dropped it while he was running away. Guilt value: 40%

Evidence pointing to guilt:
5. Darlie Routier could not give a straight story about what happened. While this points to guilt, I also believe someone sufferring a traumatic experience may possibly not remember things well. So, it is not absolute proof of guilt--not proof she was lieing. Guilt value: 60%

6. An intruder stabbing the boys to death but only non-fatally injuring an adult also there. This seems unlikely---though if Darlie fought back, it may have scared the intruder off, maybe why he didn't kill her. Guilt value: 55%

7. Darlie Routier was concerned that she touched the knife and telling the operator over the phone she might have got her fingerprints on it. This could be an indication that she was making up an allibi to explain her fingerprints. Guilt value: 60%

The probability of guilt, given a list of evidence e1, e2, ..., en each with an associated probability of guilt of p(ei) can be calculated as:

p(e1)*p(e2)*...p(en)/(p(e1)*p(e2)*...p(en)+(1-P(e1))*(1-p(e2))*...(1-p(en)))

.4*.35*.25*.4*.6*.55*.6/(.4*.35*.25*.4*.5*.55*.6+.6*.65*.75*.6*.4*.45*.4)
= 0.17 17% probability of being guilty or 83% probability of being innocent.

So I calculate Darlie Routier is innocent with probability 83%

PS: yes, I like numbers!

David
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Old 31st May 2015, 11:09 PM   #9
Charlie Wilkes
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Originally Posted by David Sugar View Post
Here I will list the evidence in this case that I believe is probative, and assign probability values to them. And then calculate the probability of guilt.

Evidence pointing to innocence:
1. Evidence of a break in. There is a cut screen and a bloody finger print that could not be matched to anyone in the house. The evidence of breakin is kind of weak, but there nonetheless. I estimate this evidence as having a probative value of 40% --> Pointing to Routier's innocence for 60% or 40% guilt.

2. Routier's wounds do not appear to be self-inflicted. I am no expert but from the descriptions and pictures I've seen, I think it is unlikely she caused them herself. Guilt value: 35%

3. Routier's sons were alive when she called 911---one was still alive when the police arrived. Why would a murderer call 911 before her victims were dead? She changed her mind? She thought they were dead? or was she not the murderer? guilt value: 25%

4. The bloody sock. It is unclear how Routier could have planted this. An intruder may have used it and dropped it while he was running away. Guilt value: 40%

Evidence pointing to guilt:
5. Darlie Routier could not give a straight story about what happened. While this points to guilt, I also believe someone sufferring a traumatic experience may possibly not remember things well. So, it is not absolute proof of guilt--not proof she was lieing. Guilt value: 60%

6. An intruder stabbing the boys to death but only non-fatally injuring an adult also there. This seems unlikely---though if Darlie fought back, it may have scared the intruder off, maybe why he didn't kill her. Guilt value: 55%

7. Darlie Routier was concerned that she touched the knife and telling the operator over the phone she might have got her fingerprints on it. This could be an indication that she was making up an allibi to explain her fingerprints. Guilt value: 60%

The probability of guilt, given a list of evidence e1, e2, ..., en each with an associated probability of guilt of p(ei) can be calculated as:

p(e1)*p(e2)*...p(en)/(p(e1)*p(e2)*...p(en)+(1-P(e1))*(1-p(e2))*...(1-p(en)))

.4*.35*.25*.4*.6*.55*.6/(.4*.35*.25*.4*.5*.55*.6+.6*.65*.75*.6*.4*.45*.4)
= 0.17 17% probability of being guilty or 83% probability of being innocent.

So I calculate Darlie Routier is innocent with probability 83%

PS: yes, I like numbers!

David
This is an interesting post, because it represents the polar opposite of how I look at a criminal case.

I always start by asking myself, "what happened here? What kind of crime was this?"

This one had to be one of two crimes:

- A deranged, random intruder.

- Maternal filicide.

I think it was more likely the latter, because the kids had multiple stab wounds in their chest and abdomen, whereas Routier had a non-fatal stab wound in her neck. It sounds like a self-inflicted wound to create a cover story, c.f. Michelle Kehoe or Diane Downs.

And, as you say, Routier's story is problematic. She says she slept through this. That is hard to believe.

BUT, where was Tommy Lynn Sells when the Routier murders went down? The basic scenario, as described by Routier, is not without precedent.

I can't say for sure with Routier. I think she probably did it.
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Old 31st May 2015, 11:29 PM   #10
Ampulla of Vater
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Originally Posted by David Sugar View Post
Here I will list the evidence in this case that I believe is probative, and assign probability values to them. And then calculate the probability of guilt.

Evidence pointing to innocence:
1. Evidence of a break in. There is a cut screen and a bloody finger print that could not be matched to anyone in the house. The evidence of breakin is kind of weak, but there nonetheless. I estimate this evidence as having a probative value of 40% --> Pointing to Routier's innocence for 60% or 40% guilt.
The investigation showed the screen had most likely been cut with a knife from the butcher block set in the kitchen and a layer of dust on the inside windowsill had been undisturbed.

Originally Posted by David Sugar View Post
2. Routier's wounds do not appear to be self-inflicted. I am no expert but from the descriptions and pictures I've seen, I think it is unlikely she caused them herself. Guilt value: 35%
Luminol discovered blood cleanup on the counter surface all around the sink, as well as cleaned up drips of blood on the floor in front of the sink where someone apparently stood in one place for some time dripping blood. There was no appreciable amount of blood found on the couch, where Darlie claimed to have been when the intruder inflicted her injuries. Detectives theorized Darlie inflicted her wounds to herself while standing in front of the kitchen sink. There was one child's handprint in blood on that couch, but it had been cleaned up and was discovered with Luminol.

Darlie's wounds were of a completely different severity than those of her sons, in the opinion of the medical examiner who performed Devon's autopsy and also examined Darlie.

Originally Posted by David Sugar View Post
3. Routier's sons were alive when she called 911---one was still alive when the police arrived. Why would a murderer call 911 before her victims were dead? She changed her mind? She thought they were dead? or was she not the murderer? guilt value: 25%
The one son was already dead at the time the husband reached him, the other barely alive at all, with just a hint of a pulse. When the police arrived, they instructed Darlie to put pressure on the wound of the one barely alive son, She ignored the request.

Originally Posted by David Sugar View Post
4. The bloody sock. It is unclear how Routier could have planted this. An intruder may have used it and dropped it while he was running away. Guilt value: 40%
It seems she had ample time to clean up and stage the scene. I am sure this was part of it. Thank god it didn't succeed in getting her off.

Here are a few more tidbits:

"They" vs "he":
In the 911 call, Darlie said, "They came in and..."
By the time detectives arrived, this had become "He...," as she changed her story to a single attacker.

The supposed exit of the intruder was through the utility room and through the garage, yet there were no lights on and it was said to be a type of obstacle course to get through there, an unlikely means for escape without leaving bloody evidence. There was no blood in the garage nor on the fence an intruder would have had to have passed to escape that way. Also no blood on the difficult-to-open gate through which an intruder would have exited. Flower beds between the garage and the gate were undisturbed. The garage door was closed and locked from the inside.

Bloody bare footprints from the kitchen heading into the family room belong to one set of feet which matched Darlie's. There were no bloody prints leading to the utility room and none in the utility room or the garage.
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Old 1st June 2015, 04:58 AM   #11
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Was luminol confirmed to be human blood?
There are a lot of chemicals around the house which will react to luminol.
As well, I am pretty sure that beef "juices" would cause a perfect luminol raction.
This is mostly an issue with the kitchen.
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Old 1st June 2015, 05:34 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Ampulla of Vater View Post
The investigation showed the screen had most likely been cut with a knife from the butcher block set in the kitchen and a layer of dust on the inside windowsill had been undisturbed.
I've seen some pretty good arguments that the knife was not responsible for cutting the screen. As such, we cannot be sure that it was.

Originally Posted by Ampulla of Vater View Post
Luminol discovered blood cleanup on the counter surface all around the sink, as well as cleaned up drips of blood on the floor in front of the sink where someone apparently stood in one place for some time dripping blood. There was no appreciable amount of blood found on the couch, where Darlie claimed to have been when the intruder inflicted her injuries. Detectives theorized Darlie inflicted her wounds to herself while standing in front of the kitchen sink. There was one child's handprint in blood on that couch, but it had been cleaned up and was discovered with Luminol.
I am wary of prosecutor's claims of a clean-up. In Knox's case there was claim of a clean-up, but we know that no clean-up took place. A cleanup here does not make sense to me: Darlie called the police, there is no doubt a murder took place. Why would Darlie, or anyone for that matter, clean up the sink, or a bloody child's handprint? How would this make Darlie look more innocent?

Originally Posted by Ampulla of Vater View Post
Darlie's wounds were of a completely different severity than those of her sons, in the opinion of the medical examiner who performed Devon's autopsy and also examined Darlie.
This can be explained if Darlie fought back.

Originally Posted by Ampulla of Vater View Post
The one son was already dead at the time the husband reached him, the other barely alive at all, with just a hint of a pulse. When the police arrived, they instructed Darlie to put pressure on the wound of the one barely alive son, She ignored the request.
Unfortunately, I have seen some good reasoning from the defense that the police involved in the investigation could not be trusted. I hate making this kind of argument, because it does come off as a "conspiracy theory". But, to me, the story told by the first responder seems to contradict what is heard on the 911 recording.

Originally Posted by Ampulla of Vater View Post
It seems she had ample time to clean up and stage the scene. I am sure this was part of it. Thank god it didn't succeed in getting her off.

Here are a few more tidbits:

"They" vs "he":
In the 911 call, Darlie said, "They came in and..."
By the time detectives arrived, this had become "He...," as she changed her story to a single attacker.

The supposed exit of the intruder was through the utility room and through the garage, yet there were no lights on and it was said to be a type of obstacle course to get through there, an unlikely means for escape without leaving bloody evidence. There was no blood in the garage nor on the fence an intruder would have had to have passed to escape that way. Also no blood on the difficult-to-open gate through which an intruder would have exited. Flower beds between the garage and the gate were undisturbed. The garage door was closed and locked from the inside.

Bloody bare footprints from the kitchen heading into the family room belong to one set of feet which matched Darlie's. There were no bloody prints leading to the utility room and none in the utility room or the garage.
Darlie's inability to explain what happened is one of the indications of guilt. Yet, in my view, it is also explainable in that someone experiencing a traumatic experience may also forget details.

David
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Old 1st June 2015, 05:40 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Charlie Wilkes View Post
This is an interesting post, because it represents the polar opposite of how I look at a criminal case.

I always start by asking myself, "what happened here? What kind of crime was this?"

This one had to be one of two crimes:

- A deranged, random intruder.

- Maternal filicide.

I think it was more likely the latter, because the kids had multiple stab wounds in their chest and abdomen, whereas Routier had a non-fatal stab wound in her neck. It sounds like a self-inflicted wound to create a cover story, c.f. Michelle Kehoe or Diane Downs.
On the one hand we have a random intruder; on the other hand we have a mother who has never been violent before, and who has been described as a good mother by friends. I see both of these cases as being extremely unlikely. I cannot really say one is more likely than the other.

To me, the (though limited) signs of an intruder, Darlie's injuries, and the fact at least one of her sons was still alive when the police got there point me more toward her innocence.

Originally Posted by Charlie Wilkes View Post
And, as you say, Routier's story is problematic. She says she slept through this. That is hard to believe.

BUT, where was Tommy Lynn Sells when the Routier murders went down? The basic scenario, as described by Routier, is not without precedent.

I can't say for sure with Routier. I think she probably did it.
I cannot say for sure Routier is innocent. I think she probably did not do it, though.

David

Last edited by David Sugar; 1st June 2015 at 05:44 AM.
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Old 1st June 2015, 05:53 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by David Sugar View Post
On the one hand we have a random intruder; on the other hand we have a mother who has never been violent before, and who has been described as a good mother by friends. I see both of these cases as being extremely unlikely. I cannot really say one is more likely than the other.

To me, the (though limited) signs of an intruder, Darlie's injuries, and the fact at least one of her sons was still alive when the police got there point me more toward her innocence.



I cannot say for sure Routier is innocent. I think she probably did not do it, though.

David
Ampulla de vater has impressive detail supporting her claim. How do you counter the evidence that suggests such variability in the blood evidence?
I have long been troubled by both implausible accounts of the Bain family slaughter. Both of only two possibilities seem implausible, yet the blood evidence points to the son, and this is supported by the computer timing.
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Old 1st June 2015, 10:44 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by David Sugar View Post
The probability of guilt, given a list of evidence e1, e2, ..., en each with an associated probability of guilt of p(ei) can be calculated as:

p(e1)*p(e2)*...p(en)/(p(e1)*p(e2)*...p(en)+(1-P(e1))*(1-p(e2))*...(1-p(en)))

.4*.35*.25*.4*.6*.55*.6/(.4*.35*.25*.4*.5*.55*.6+.6*.65*.75*.6*.4*.45*.4)
= 0.17 17% probability of being guilty or 83% probability of being innocent.
I don't think I'm following your reasoning. Would it also be the case that the probability of innocence would be calculated as follows?

(1 - p(e1))*(1-p(e2))*...*(1-p(en))/(p(e1)*p(e2)*...p(en)+(1-P(e1))*(1-p(e2))*...(1-p(en)))

And should the sum of these two probabilities be equal to one? They don't seem to sum to one.

When you multiply the probabilities, are you presuming that these bits of evidence are independent? Is this a reasonable presumption?

Am I missing something?
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Old 1st June 2015, 01:06 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
I don't think I'm following your reasoning. Would it also be the case that the probability of innocence would be calculated as follows?

(1 - p(e1))*(1-p(e2))*...*(1-p(en))/(p(e1)*p(e2)*...p(en)+(1-P(e1))*(1-p(e2))*...(1-p(en)))

And should the sum of these two probabilities be equal to one? They don't seem to sum to one.

When you multiply the probabilities, are you presuming that these bits of evidence are independent? Is this a reasonable presumption?

Am I missing something?
Yes, that is the case, your formula calculates innocence, and the sum of the two should be 1.

You caught an important piece of information---this assumes that the bits of evidence are independent---if they are not, then more calculation with conditional probabilities are needed.

see http://www.paulgraham.com/naivebayes.html

chance of guilt: .4*.35*.25*.4*.6*.55*.6/(.4*.35*.25*.4*.6*.55*.6+.6*.65*.75*.6*.4*.45*.4)
= 0.179906542

Change of innocence:
.6*.65*.75*.6*.4*.45*.4/(.4*.35*.25*.4*.6*.55*.6+.6*.65*.75*.6*.4*.45*.4)
= 0.820093458

Chance of innocence+guilt = 0.179906542+0.820093458 = 1.0


PS: looks like I had a typo in my original post.

David
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Old 1st June 2015, 01:32 PM   #17
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I consider mathematically trying to determine guilt about as useful as "Eyes for Lies."
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Old 1st June 2015, 02:59 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Desert Fox View Post
I consider mathematically trying to determine guilt about as useful as "Eyes for Lies."
Agree.

Maybe we can get some phrenology measurements while we're at it.

Ampulla of Vater: Great posts!
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Old 1st June 2015, 03:14 PM   #19
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I didn't know anything about this case beforehand; after reviewing the information presented in this thread pro and con, were I on the jury I would vote to convict. The undisturbed layer of dust on the windowsill is persuasive to me; an intruder, if he existed, would have to disturb that dust while entering. The sock was probably planted before the crime, and the bloody footprints are pretty damning.
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Old 1st June 2015, 03:21 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by David Sugar View Post
On the one hand we have a random intruder; on the other hand we have a mother who has never been violent before, and who has been described as a good mother by friends. I see both of these cases as being extremely unlikely. I cannot really say one is more likely than the other.
Both have precedents (cf. Suzanna Simpson and Tommy Lynn Sells), both are rare, and this had to be one or the other.

Above you note that the nature and limited extent of Routier's injuries could be explained if she defended herself. She deprived herself of this explanation with her statements, however, presumably because her husband was upstairs at the time of the murders, so she could have called out for help.

So, if this was someone like Tommy Lynn Sells (cf. Julie Rea Harper, who is undoubtedly innocent) we have to contemplate a scenario where the intruder forced his way in, found a woman and two children sleeping, stabbed both children repeatedly in the chest and abdomen without waking up the woman (or the man who was sleeping upstairs), and then stabbed the sleeping woman once in the neck before running off.

I'm not buying it. It is implausible on the face of it, and it doesn't appear to match the blood evidence at the crime scene. At the same time, I can't say it's impossible or that the blood evidence is infallible.
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Old 1st June 2015, 03:56 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Charlie Wilkes View Post
... and then stabbed the sleeping woman once in the neck before running off.

I'm not buying it. It is implausible on the face of it, and it doesn't appear to match the blood evidence at the crime scene. At the same time, I can't say it's impossible or that the blood evidence is infallible.


Not just once.

darliefacts.com/darlies-injuries/

It looks like she was a little more competent in self-inflicting stab wounds than Jeffery MacDonald.
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Old 1st June 2015, 04:04 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
I didn't know anything about this case beforehand; after reviewing the information presented in this thread pro and con, were I on the jury I would vote to convict. The undisturbed layer of dust on the windowsill is persuasive to me; an intruder, if he existed, would have to disturb that dust while entering. The sock was probably planted before the crime, and the bloody footprints are pretty damning.

I'm still on the fence, but appaerently that "window sill" in question is/was only 15 inches off the ground. On the otherhand, the back gate was locked from the inside with no signs of an intruder.

The sock had the blood Devon and Damon’s on it so how could she have planted it before the crime?
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Old 1st June 2015, 04:15 PM   #23
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Opinions on how competent the crime scene analysis was?
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Old 1st June 2015, 04:53 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Desert Fox View Post
Opinions on how competent the crime scene analysis was?
I don't know, but I'd like to have about 10 times more crime scene photos than what I have seen over the years. One of the problems with her story is that she says she was sleeping on the couch when she was stabbed or cut with the knife. The photos I have seen don't show any blood on the couch, and you'd sure expect to see some.

Her supporters say there was blood on the couch, but it doesn't show in the photos, and the couch was discarded after the crime. Kind of like the windshield on Kennedy's limo...
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Old 1st June 2015, 05:06 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Charlie Wilkes View Post
I don't know, but I'd like to have about 10 times more crime scene photos than what I have seen over the years. One of the problems with her story is that she says she was sleeping on the couch when she was stabbed or cut with the knife. The photos I have seen don't show any blood on the couch, and you'd sure expect to see some.

Her supporters say there was blood on the couch, but it doesn't show in the photos, and the couch was discarded after the crime. Kind of like the windshield on Kennedy's limo...
If there was the competency that I have seen out of some Texas law enforcement and unwillingness to take a new look at the case, I would be extremely skeptical about a guilty decision.
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Old 1st June 2015, 05:29 PM   #26
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I realize that this is a pro innocent site but I found this to be revealing:

http://darliefacts.com/the-nurses/

Everyone wants her to be guilty.
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Old 1st June 2015, 05:43 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
I realize that this is a pro innocent site but I found this to be revealing:

http://darliefacts.com/the-nurses/

Everyone wants her to be guilty.
I take almost no stock in how emotional somebody appears to be.
I hate when that is used as evidence, I admit.
Edit: That is actually for either side just like I take no stock in lie detectors for either side.

Also, nurse handwriting is not much better than doctors
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Old 1st June 2015, 05:51 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Desert Fox View Post
I consider mathematically trying to determine guilt about as useful as "Eyes for Lies."
Those calculation remind me the creationist calculation on the probability of the cell being a random occurrence to 10^-450. They reek of one own assumption and are meaningless.

Example :

"Evidence of a break in. There is a cut screen and a bloody finger print that could not be matched to anyone in the house. The evidence of breakin is kind of weak, but there nonetheless. I estimate this evidence as having a probative value of 40% --> Pointing to Routier's innocence for 60% or 40% guilt."

Now change to
"Evidence of a break in. There is a cut screen and a bloody finger print that could not be matched to anyone in the house. The evidence of breakin is kind of weak, but there nonetheless. I estimate this evidence as having a probative value of 20% --> Pointing to Routier's innocence for 80% or 20% guilt."

Or to
Evidence of a break in. There is a cut screen and a bloody finger print that could not be matched to anyone in the house. The evidence of breakin is kind of weak, but there nonetheless. I estimate this evidence as having a probative value of 11.2% --> Pointing to Routier's innocence for 88.8% or 11.2% guilt.

I only changed the numbers. Not the fact. But you can't dispute those numbers because they are not related to the cited facts. They are just pulled out of thin air. The same can be repeated for all numbers until you reach whatever your gut feeling was at the start.

Just simply state that you feel that the evidence are weak and be done with it. Associating subjective numbers with the scenario does not make it more coherent than "my< gut feeling is that she is innocent".
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Old 1st June 2015, 05:58 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
I realize that this is a pro innocent site but I found this to be revealing:

http://darliefacts.com/the-nurses/

Everyone wants her to be guilty.
The problem is that "innocence" web site latch onto any very small irrelevant details to try to show as if the investigator are a bunch of moron, the jury blind, and the evidence always interpreted in favor of the innocent.

Fact is, up to now none of this occurred despite the defense being aware of the SAME evidence than the internet expert.
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Old 1st June 2015, 06:15 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
The problem is that "innocence" web site latch onto any very small irrelevant details to try to show as if the investigator are a bunch of moron, the jury blind, and the evidence always interpreted in favor of the innocent.

Fact is, up to now none of this occurred despite the defense being aware of the SAME evidence than the internet expert.
My whole issue is if we can reasonably (not possibly) get someone else into the house and committing the crime.

Look, I consider if she is guilty that there was something mentally wrong with her and that should be a reasonable argument for not executing her. I think it is probable that she also tried to commit suicide at the same time.

I am anti Death Penalty but would not feel bad if or when Charles Ng is executed. I would feel that her execution is different.
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Old 1st June 2015, 06:43 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by Desert Fox View Post
My whole issue is if we can reasonably (not possibly) get someone else into the house and committing the crime.

Look, I consider if she is guilty that there was something mentally wrong with her and that should be a reasonable argument for not executing her. I think it is probable that she also tried to commit suicide at the same time.

I am anti Death Penalty but would not feel bad if or when Charles Ng is executed. I would feel that her execution is different.
Is it because she is a woman? I tend to feel differently about mothers who kill their children. Innocent children don't get to choose their parents and they rely 100% on their parents. To violate this trust and to ignore the immense, automatic, overwhelming inborn love between a mother and her dependent, helpless children warrants the death penalty IMO.
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Old 1st June 2015, 06:51 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Ampulla of Vater View Post
Is it because she is a woman? I tend to feel differently about mothers who kill their children. Innocent children don't get to choose their parents and they rely 100% on their parents. To violate this trust and to ignore the immense, automatic, overwhelming inborn love between a mother and her dependent, helpless children warrants the death penalty IMO.
Different cases, I have different reasons. I think though that she might have some mental issues such as postpartum depression although nothing like as bad as Andrea Yates.
Edit: Why I believe Yates belongs in a mental institution and Routier (unless I can find some evidence of innocence) belongs in prison.

In addition, Charles Ng seemed to delight in what he did. He likely would be an actual psychopath and I don't think she is although there may be narcissist parts of her personality.
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Old 1st June 2015, 06:55 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Ampulla of Vater View Post
Start here. There is lots of info about the crime all over the internet.

http://www.darlieroutierfactandfiction.com/
Based on the information provided in this link, I'd say the verdict was a correct one. I suppose one could contrive an implausible series of events that could collectively comprise a case for doubt, but I think that would be confusing reasonable doubt with conceivable doubt.
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Old 1st June 2015, 06:57 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Desert Fox View Post
My whole issue is if we can reasonably (not possibly) get someone else into the house and committing the crime.

Look, I consider if she is guilty that there was something mentally wrong with her and that should be a reasonable argument for not executing her. I think it is probable that she also tried to commit suicide at the same time.

I am anti Death Penalty but would not feel bad if or when Charles Ng is executed. I would feel that her execution is different.
I also oppose the death penalty, but for reasons that may be a bit different from yours. My opposition is not based on any sympathy for the convicted; I simply don't believe society should be in the business of killing people except in self-defense.
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Old 1st June 2015, 07:02 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Stellafane View Post
I also oppose the death penalty, but for reasons that may be a bit different from yours. My opposition is not based on any sympathy for the convicted; I simply don't believe society should be in the business of killing people except in self-defense.
I am not for executing Charles Ng, I just would not shed too many tears for him.

I don't see execution as serving any real purpose being that crime rates do not seem to be reduced by the death penalty and there is arguable evidence that states (nations as well) without have lower murder rates.

I do not see the prison system as vengeance but reform. The worst of the worst you need to permanently keep out of society however.
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Old 1st June 2015, 07:06 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by David Sugar View Post
Here I will list the evidence in this case that I believe is probative, and assign probability values to them. And then calculate the probability of guilt.

Evidence pointing to innocence:
1. Evidence of a break in. There is a cut screen and a bloody finger print that could not be matched to anyone in the house. The evidence of breakin is kind of weak, but there nonetheless. I estimate this evidence as having a probative value of 40% --> Pointing to Routier's innocence for 60% or 40% guilt.

2. Routier's wounds do not appear to be self-inflicted. I am no expert but from the descriptions and pictures I've seen, I think it is unlikely she caused them herself. Guilt value: 35%

3. Routier's sons were alive when she called 911---one was still alive when the police arrived. Why would a murderer call 911 before her victims were dead? She changed her mind? She thought they were dead? or was she not the murderer? guilt value: 25%

4. The bloody sock. It is unclear how Routier could have planted this. An intruder may have used it and dropped it while he was running away. Guilt value: 40%

Evidence pointing to guilt:
5. Darlie Routier could not give a straight story about what happened. While this points to guilt, I also believe someone sufferring a traumatic experience may possibly not remember things well. So, it is not absolute proof of guilt--not proof she was lieing. Guilt value: 60%

6. An intruder stabbing the boys to death but only non-fatally injuring an adult also there. This seems unlikely---though if Darlie fought back, it may have scared the intruder off, maybe why he didn't kill her. Guilt value: 55%

7. Darlie Routier was concerned that she touched the knife and telling the operator over the phone she might have got her fingerprints on it. This could be an indication that she was making up an allibi to explain her fingerprints. Guilt value: 60%

The probability of guilt, given a list of evidence e1, e2, ..., en each with an associated probability of guilt of p(ei) can be calculated as:

p(e1)*p(e2)*...p(en)/(p(e1)*p(e2)*...p(en)+(1-P(e1))*(1-p(e2))*...(1-p(en)))

.4*.35*.25*.4*.6*.55*.6/(.4*.35*.25*.4*.5*.55*.6+.6*.65*.75*.6*.4*.45*.4)
= 0.17 17% probability of being guilty or 83% probability of being innocent.

So I calculate Darlie Routier is innocent with probability 83%

PS: yes, I like numbers!

David
The problem with all of the above is that Darlie's guilt is not a matter of mathematics. We're not talking about a hypothetical or future event; we're talking about something that actually happened. She did it, or she didn't do it -- probability has zero to do with it. (I like numbers too!)
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Old 1st June 2015, 07:09 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by Desert Fox View Post
I am not for executing Charles Ng, I just would not shed too many tears for him.
Truth be told, neither would I. The Ng case is a particularly severe challenge to my opposition of capital punishment. (Fortunately Lake self-administered his own sentence.)
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Old 1st June 2015, 07:30 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by Stellafane View Post
Based on the information provided in this link, I'd say the verdict was a correct one. I suppose one could contrive an implausible series of events that could collectively comprise a case for doubt, but I think that would be confusing reasonable doubt with conceivable doubt.
Sorry, while I do not believe in the death penalty, I would argue that before the death penalty is even entertained, there needs to be NO DOUBT (Within human limits.)
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Old 1st June 2015, 08:03 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
I'm still on the fence, but appaerently that "window sill" in question is/was only 15 inches off the ground. On the otherhand, the back gate was locked from the inside with no signs of an intruder.

The sock had the blood Devon and Damon’s on it so how could she have planted it before the crime?
There's evidence that points to Routier's guilt, as well as others that point to her innocence. Different people may assign different weights to the evidence. The bloody finger print, which cannot be matched to anyone in the house, for example, makes it very difficult for me to find Darlie guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

David
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Old 1st June 2015, 08:08 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Stellafane View Post
The problem with all of the above is that Darlie's guilt is not a matter of mathematics. We're not talking about a hypothetical or future event; we're talking about something that actually happened. She did it, or she didn't do it -- probability has zero to do with it. (I like numbers too!)
Except for the fact that we cannot know if she is guilty. We must evaluate the evidence and come to a conclusion---that conclusion is a probability of guilt.

Of course, my post is not proof that Darlie's probability of guilt is 18%. Everyone weighs the evidence differently and will come to different conclusions, and different probabilties. Weighing of evidence is subjective.

David
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