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Old 24th May 2021, 02:07 PM   #561
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a position of neutrality

I was not implying anything financial. One definition of the phrase "to hedge one's bets" is "avoid committing oneself when faced with a difficult choice." My interpretation is that he has moved from a position which leaned against a lab leak to a neutral stance.
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Old 24th May 2021, 02:13 PM   #562
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Huh? What is Fauci reconsidering and what "bets" would he be hedging?


ETA: He doesn't appear to be reconsidering. He hasn't contradicted anything he's said earlier and he never expressed any final conclusion that would even make reconsidering possible. This appears to be blown up for sensationalism purposes.
The conspiracy theorists are somehow convinced that the Wuhan lab origin is proven now. Apparently Trump was right all along, as he, of course, always is.
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Old 24th May 2021, 02:30 PM   #563
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Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
I was not implying anything financial. One definition of the phrase "to hedge one's bets" is "avoid committing oneself when faced with a difficult choice." My interpretation is that he has moved from a position which leaned against a lab leak to a neutral stance.
I didn't think you meant financial. But I don't see a real change of position in those words. He has said in the past the evidence is strongly in favor of natural origin and is now saying that he's not convinced of natural origin. I hold both those positions myself simultaneously right now. And he's always been in favor of more investigations in to the origin without conditions about what possibilities should be excluded.

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Old 24th May 2021, 03:35 PM   #564
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
The conspiracy theorists are somehow convinced that the Wuhan lab origin is proven now. Apparently Trump was right all along, as he, of course, always is.
Does this apply equally to the people who are convinced the lab origin has been proven false?
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Old 24th May 2021, 03:38 PM   #565
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Does this apply equally to the people who are convinced the lab origin has been proven false?
No. How could it? When did Trump ever say it was it was false?
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Old 24th May 2021, 04:55 PM   #566
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
No. How could it? When did Trump ever say it was it was false?
So it only applies to CTs Dump pushed?

And since he pushed the lab origin CT (no argument there) it must mean the opposite is true?


Bottom line, everyone would be wise to keep an open mind until the actual source is tracked down. Calling the lab origin a CT even when you couch it with 'proved' does not move this discussion forward.
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Old 24th May 2021, 05:45 PM   #567
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Does this apply equally to the people who are convinced the lab origin has been proven false?
Depends if there's any evidence either way. Oh, look! There's evidence that it jumped from bats to us. Gee, who'd have thought, eh?
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Old 24th May 2021, 05:52 PM   #568
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Depends if there's any evidence either way. Oh, look! There's evidence that it jumped from bats to us. Gee, who'd have thought, eh?
First, I noted well back in the thread that Dump's BS made things worse because he made some valid evidence suspect.

Second, that evidence you sarcastically imply is some kind of proof, isn't.

There is evidence supporting a number of hypotheses, none of which includes anything conclusive. There is evidence (until resolved) which makes any conclusion problematic as well.

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Old 24th May 2021, 06:35 PM   #569
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Second, that evidence you sarcastically imply is some kind of proof, isn't.
I didn't sarcastically imply that it was proof. I plainly stated it. The sarcasm was directed at you, not it.

Quote:
There is evidence supporting a number of hypotheses, none of which includes anything conclusive. There is evidence (until resolved) which makes any conclusion problematic as well.
Excuse me, where is there evidence that it came from a lab?
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Old 24th May 2021, 07:20 PM   #570
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
So it only applies to CTs Dump pushed?
Yes, statements about CT's Dump pushed apply to CT's Dump pushed.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
And since he pushed the lab origin CT (no argument there) it must mean the opposite is true?
Who said that? Of course not. Although with Trump maybe "Of course not" should be reconsidered.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Bottom line, everyone would be wise to keep an open mind until the actual source is tracked down.
Of course.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Calling the lab origin a CT even when you couch it with 'proved' does not move this discussion forward.
But there are lab origin CT's. "lab origin" is not one idea.
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Old 24th May 2021, 08:19 PM   #571
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I didn't sarcastically imply that it was proof. I plainly stated it. The sarcasm was directed at you, not it.



Excuse me, where is there evidence that it came from a lab?
Well then you aren't paying attention because what you think is the final word on the origin of COVID 19 is only one of several hypotheses and it is one like the rest that has problems.

And yes, there is evidence it came from the lab, and that also has some as yet unsolved issues.

Neither explanation is yet resolved.

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Old 24th May 2021, 08:29 PM   #572
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Yes, statements about CT's Dump pushed apply to CT's Dump pushed.


Who said that? Of course not. Although with Trump maybe "Of course not" should be reconsidered.


Of course.


But there are lab origin CT's. "lab origin" is not one idea.
Re that last bit, the one lab origin that it was manufactured and/or has some military aspect has pretty much been ruled out by the genetics. It wasn't created by inserting gene segments.

As for who said what, Belz' post sounded like he believes the bat to human transmission was proven. It hasn't been, though other coronaviruses have directly infected humans from horseshoe bats in the Yunnan Province. They were miners.
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Old 24th May 2021, 10:02 PM   #573
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NBC: U.S. intel report identified 3 Wuhan lab researchers who fell ill in November 2019
Quote:
The new details, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, add to the body of circumstantial evidence that supports a hypothesis that the Covid-19 virus may have spread to humans after it escaped from a Chinese research lab in Wuhan. But the evidence is far from conclusive.
Indeed, we don't have a conclusive answer yet.

Toward the above couple of posts in this thread:
Quote:
The other theory is that the virus was transmitted to humans through an animal host. After a year and half of looking, no such host has been identified.

Reuters: Wuhan lab staff sought hospital care before COVID-19 outbreak disclosed - WSJ
Quote:
The newspaper said the previously undisclosed report - which provides fresh details on the number of researchers affected, the timing of their illnesses, and their hospital visits - may add weight to calls for a broader investigation into whether the COVID-19 virus could have escaped from the laboratory. ...

China's foreign ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, said on Monday that it was "completely untrue" that three members of staff at WIV had fallen ill.

"The United States continues to hype up the lab leak theory," he said. "Does it care about traceability or is it just trying to distract attention?"
Of course there are official denials. There was also that eye doctor who was told to shut up that then later died of the infection.

And while Daszak has been trying to steer the WHO investigation away from the lab:
Quote:
Asked about the report, WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said via email that the organisation's technical teams were now deciding on the next steps. He said further study was needed into the role of animal markets as well as the lab leak hypothesis.

And then we have this: Dr. Fauci 'not convinced' coronavirus developed naturally
Quote:
WASHINGTON — Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top immunologist who lead the COVID-19 response in the United States, said he's "not convinced" that the deadly virus was naturally developed and encouraged further investigation into its origins. ...
Fauci said this earlier:
Quote:
This is a change from his earlier viewpoints. During an interview with National Geographic in May of 2020, a year ago, Fauci believed the virus likely came from animals and transmitted to humans.

"If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats, and what's out there now is very, very strongly leaning toward this [virus] could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated—the way the mutations have naturally evolved," he said during the interview on May 4, 2020. "A number of very qualified evolutionary biologists have said that everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that it evolved in nature and then jumped species."
This is the same distraction Daszak has been promoting, saying what we do know, it wasn't hobbled together in a lab, while claiming that ruled the lab accident out. But being created by inserting gene segments together is not the only way it could have developed in the lab. No one in this thread has yet suggested 'created purposefully in the lab' is still a viable option. It's pretty safe to say the genetics rules that out.

But there is still evidence it did develop in the lab and an accident let it out. Is that conclusive? No. Neither is a direct infection from bats in Yunnan and neither is it conclusive it spread from the wild animal markets via an intermediary animal species.
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Old 24th May 2021, 11:04 PM   #574
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More of the current news stream, CNN, Chris Cuomo touches on the issues with a pretty decent 'we don't yet know' POV, start at ~ minute 17:29, skip all that Chris Christie stuff and stop at ~ minute 28 which is where the Belarus issue starts:

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I AGREE
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Old 24th May 2021, 11:34 PM   #575
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Former NYT expert on what we know about covid's origins.
https://donaldgmcneiljr1954.medium.c...y-f4f88446b04d
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Old 25th May 2021, 12:13 AM   #576
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Former NYT expert on what we know about covid's origins.
https://donaldgmcneiljr1954.medium.c...y-f4f88446b04d
That's an excellent summary of the scientific community's evolution of thinking here from early 2020 to now.

Quote:
I now agree with Nick’s central conclusion: We still do not know the source of this awful pandemic. We may never know. But the argument that it could have leaked out of the Wuhan Institute of Virology or a sister lab in Wuhan has become considerably stronger than it was a year ago, when the screaming was so loud that it drowned out serious discussion. ...

Also worrying: the hunt for the spillover theory’s smoking gun — a very closely related natural virus in a human or an animal — has gone on for over a year. Success would mean big prizes for the discoverer — especially from the Chinese government, which could say “See??”

And yet — zip. That doesn’t mean it won’t be found. But by now we might have expected at least some smoking shell casings. ...

As soon as it was clear that the threat was a dangerous new coronavirus, the local health commission and then the national one ordered diagnostic and genetics labs to destroy their samples or surrender them to high-level biosecurity labs. Most labs chose incineration — another crime scene wrecked. ...

The paper’s first author, Kristian G. Andersen of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, is still vigorously defending the paper’s basic premise — that an animal origin is by far the most likely.

But other eminent virologists, including at least one of his co-authors, are wavering.

During the uproar that ensued after the institute revealed that the RaTG13 strain was in its freezers, Dr. Daszak argued that merely having a virus in a frozen fecal pellet meant little. Infections take place only when viruses are warmed up and growing in cell cultures or animals. ...

Doubts have been raised about that, including the question: since Covid-19 was racing through Wuhan in early 2020, how likely would it be that no one in her lab tested antibody-positive? Wouldn’t some have gotten infected outside?
Ultimately, much of the debate comes down to this: Is Dr. Shi telling the whole truth? And even if she is, are all her similarly skilled colleagues in Wuhan? Are they being allowed to do so by their government — which has a history of silencing scientists? ...

Nick Wade quoted David Baltimore, who won the 1975 Nobel Prize for his work with viruses, as saying the specific amino acid sequences in the cleavage site made “a powerful challenge to the idea of a natural origin.” (This has prompted a complex debate among evolutionary geneticists over which specific rungs on the RNA-DNA ladder are statistically most likely to appear in a bat virus.) ...

But later he learned of studies with Dr. Shi’s name on them showing that work he considers dangerous had been done in level BSL-2 labs, which he considers highly porous to leaks, not just in 2016, but in 2020.
“That’s screwed up,” he said. “It shouldn’t have happened. People should not be looking at bat viruses in BSL-2 labs. My view has changed.”
That is still not, as he pointed out, direct evidence of a lab leak. There is no proof of a leak. ...

So there we are. All we have so far is speculation, and all the explanations are unsatisfactory.
The whole thing may just be a cold case, and stay that way forever. But there are more embers left to sift. The whole world, China included, needs a hard answer, whoever is to blame — so we can prevent this from happening again.

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Old 25th May 2021, 12:52 AM   #577
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
More of the current news stream, CNN, Chris Cuomo touches on the issues with a pretty decent 'we don't yet know' POV, start at ~ minute 17:29, skip all that Chris Christie stuff and stop at ~ minute 28 which is where the Belarus issue starts:

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I AGREE
I've highlighted the bit that makes it unwatchable for me.

But indeed, I agree we need more information from the WIV.

As a counterpoint, in the WSJ article that was linked before was one of the members of the WHO investigators:

Quote:
Marion Koopmans, a Dutch virologist on that team told NBC News in March that some WIV staff did fall sick in the autumn of 2019, but she attributed that to regular, seasonal sickness.

“There were occasional illnesses because that’s normal. There was nothing that stood out,” she said. “Maybe one or two. It’s certainly not a big, big thing.”

It isn’t unusual for people in China to go straight to the hospital when they fall sick, either because they get better care there or lack access to a general practitioner. Covid-19 and the flu, while very different illnesses, share some of the same symptoms, such as fever, aches and a cough. Still, it could be significant if members of the same team working with coronaviruses went to hospital with similar symptoms shortly before the pandemic was first identified.
This may be a cultural point here. I don't know about China, except from the bit that I just quoted, but here in Japan it is also the same that people may just drop in at a hospital for relatively minor illnesses. When I first came here, I would sometimes be surprised when people said they had been to hospital "Oh my God! Are you okay?" - "Yeah, I just had a cold/headache etc..."
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Old 25th May 2021, 03:07 AM   #578
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Well then you aren't paying attention because what you think is the final word on the origin of COVID 19 is only one of several hypotheses and it is one like the rest that has problems.
Nobody said anything about a final word except you. The tentative conclusion is that it came, as diseases often do, from an animal source. Do you or do you not have evidence that it didn't?

Quote:
And yes, there is evidence it came from the lab, and that also has some as yet unsolved issues.
Ok, what are you waiting for, then?
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Old 25th May 2021, 03:22 AM   #579
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Nobody said anything about a final word except you. The tentative conclusion is that it came, as diseases often do, from an animal source. Do you or do you not have evidence that it didn't?



Ok, what are you waiting for, then?
Yes from an animal gathered from the wild. There was sufficient fear that a virus might infect humans from this animal it was experimented upon.
The experiment proved the hazard.
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Old 25th May 2021, 03:41 AM   #580
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Yes from an animal gathered from the wild. There was sufficient fear that a virus might infect humans from this animal it was experimented upon.
The experiment proved the hazard.
That animal hasn't been identified. It would be known if it was in a lab.
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Old 25th May 2021, 04:34 AM   #581
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Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
That animal hasn't been identified. It would be known if it was in a lab.
The animal began in the wild.

There are animals in the Wuhan lab.

I am looking at facts only.
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Old 25th May 2021, 05:28 AM   #582
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The animal began in the wild.

There are animals in the Wuhan lab.

I am looking at facts only.
You are talking about wild animals in the lab? Which wild animals are we talking about?

I don't know if this is correct or not, so I would be interested in what you mean by this, and how it fits in.

Are you talking about live bats, taken from Yunnan Province, for example?
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Old 25th May 2021, 05:32 AM   #583
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Yes from an animal gathered from the wild. There was sufficient fear that a virus might infect humans from this animal it was experimented upon.
The experiment proved the hazard.
Interesting theory. You have proof of this?
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Old 25th May 2021, 07:08 AM   #584
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I am not aware that there were any wild animals kept at the WIV labs.

There were apparently "humanized mice" that were used as animal models.

Quote:
Then, to see if the new chimeras could infect people, they were tested against human airway cells and “humanized” mice — mice bred to have human ACE-2 receptors on their organs.
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Old 25th May 2021, 07:28 AM   #585
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post

Recall that SARS infected 3 different labs even after it was under control, and 3 separate times just at one high level BS-4 lab in Beijing.
I can find no record that China has a BSL-4 lab in Beijing. There are quite a few references to the Wuhan lab being China's first BSL-4 lab when it was completed in 2015.
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Old 25th May 2021, 07:44 AM   #586
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Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
That animal hasn't been identified. It would be known if it was in a lab.
The virus itself would be know if it were in a lab unless there is a conspiracy to hide the fact that it was known in a lab. All "Escape from a lab theories" require such a conspiracy and are, by definition, conspiracy theories. All with all persistent conspiracy theories, no evidence of any actual conspiracy has been presented, and any expert in a position to actually debunk the conspiracy theory is discounted as being "compromised".
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Old 25th May 2021, 07:49 AM   #587
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
This may be a cultural point here. I don't know about China, except from the bit that I just quoted, but here in Japan it is also the same that people may just drop in at a hospital for relatively minor illnesses. When I first came here, I would sometimes be surprised when people said they had been to hospital "Oh my God! Are you okay?" - "Yeah, I just had a cold/headache etc..."
Are the hospitals also more likely to admit patients as well? 'Went to the hospital' vs 'was hospitalized' seems an important distinction.
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Old 25th May 2021, 08:09 AM   #588
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
I can find no record that China has a BSL-4 lab in Beijing. There are quite a few references to the Wuhan lab being China's first BSL-4 lab when it was completed in 2015.
You are right!!
The exact quote in Nature (2017 -when the Wuhan BS-4 was accredited)
"The Sars virus has escaped from high level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times" and it goes on to discuss safety in Bs-4 levels, and how "the next ones are expected to be in Beijing and Kunming".

The BS-4 safety labs arent really involved. (That was surprising to me!)
SARS and the bat corona viruses did not require that level, and, to my knowledge, they did not use it. BS-2 and BS-3 were used.
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Old 25th May 2021, 08:53 AM   #589
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
The virus itself would be know if it were in a lab unless there is a conspiracy to hide the fact that it was known in a lab. All "Escape from a lab theories" require such a conspiracy and are, by definition, conspiracy theories. All with all persistent conspiracy theories, no evidence of any actual conspiracy has been presented, and any expert in a position to actually debunk the conspiracy theory is discounted as being "compromised".
The Chinese government putting out a report the virus emerged in a wild animal farm and was shipped to various wet markets is a CT. Daszak pushing his various theories, directing the WHO team to look elsewhere is a CT.

See how that works?

There's a CT thread if you want to discuss the origin in terms other than evidence based. Please use it.
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Old 25th May 2021, 09:33 AM   #590
Sherkeu
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
The virus itself would be know if it were in a lab unless there is a conspiracy to hide the fact that it was known in a lab. All "Escape from a lab theories" require such a conspiracy and are, by definition, conspiracy theories. All with all persistent conspiracy theories, no evidence of any actual conspiracy has been presented, and any expert in a position to actually debunk the conspiracy theory is discounted as being "compromised".
I think you are missing several possibilities. A virus can enter the lab or be created in a lab without the researchers ever knowing it. A few pages back I described this exact scenario of a novel recombinant Hanta virus popping up between 2 rodent species and infecting 2 of Shi's students.

There were also many viruses that were never sequenced. And with live bats, they mutate very fast and can hold several viruses at once and create recombinant ones.
There is also a possibility of it coming in from field research in Yunnan- from a virus that was not even collected.
Unlike the Hanta example, Sars-CoV-2 could have slowly circulated a while with the young staffers and their experiments already 'disposed' of without anything left to test.
There are many possibilities more likely than "some unknown source" of bat-derived virus that happens to pop up next to the lab that studied them.

Simply put: We know corona viruses that can infect humans were at the Wuhan lab and used in 'human function' experiments. We know the outbreak began in Wuhan near that lab. We know that no pre-cursor virus closer than one that was in the lab has been found in any other animals, or through the markets, or wildlife farms.

The "Conspiracy theorist" accusations are getting old. I think they will die out soon. The tide of expert (and public) opinion is turning.
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Old 25th May 2021, 09:33 AM   #591
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I've highlighted the bit that makes it unwatchable for me.
Cuomo's report was one of several I posted. What I posted Cuomo's for was his flashback to an interview with Daszak a year ago and then Cuomo discussed how that opinion which he initially held, had now changed.

Bob's link contains a thorough discussion of all the aspects of the evolving evidence and opinions from more than a year ago until now.

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
But indeed, I agree we need more information from the WIV.

As a counterpoint, in the WSJ article that was linked before was one of the members of the WHO investigators:

This may be a cultural point here. I don't know about China, except from the bit that I just quoted, but here in Japan it is also the same that people may just drop in at a hospital for relatively minor illnesses. When I first came here, I would sometimes be surprised when people said they had been to hospital "Oh my God! Are you okay?" - "Yeah, I just had a cold/headache etc..."
It was noted that the 3 WIV employees may or may not have had a serious infection. The fact anyone at the lab was ill during late 2019 is also relevant because the head of the lab denied anyone at all at the lab had been ill during that time period.

Earlier in this thread the fact people in the lab had been ill was noted. We also noted evidence of the claim was lacking. There were images of a full parking lot at one of the hospitals in Wuhan. I don't remember the details without going back to the beginning of the thread except that it was also considered questionable evidence.


What has changed here is the report on the employee illnesses has been released. Again, we don't know how serious their illnesses were. And again, it is evidence the claim no one at the lab had been ill was likely false. It impeaches the rest of the claims by the same person that no viruses the lab was studying matched COVID 19.


I believe I posted this earlier but this is a good time to repost it: An investigation into the WIV databases that were taken offline
Quote:
On the 12th Sep 2019, the main database of samples and viral sequences of the Wuhan Institute of Virology went offline. Eventually every single of the 16 virus databases managed by the WIV was taken offline. Here we show how these databases may provide essential clues at to the origins of SARS-CoV-2 and review the circumstances in which they were taken offline.

The DRASIC website, and a bit more about the group: How the coronavirus origin story is being rewritten by a guerrilla Twitter group
Quote:
After a lot of trial and error, the Seeker stumbled upon exactly what he was looking for: a master's thesis written by a Chinese doctor. The document contained an account of six cases of "severe pneumonia caused by unknown viruses" in workers who had been cleaning an abandoned copper mine in Yunnan, China, in 2012. The patients' symptoms seemed eerily similar to those of COVID-19. Three of the patients, it said, died from the mystery illness.

The Yunnan mine and its resident bats, the Seeker knew, had been sampled by researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
He'd uncovered a missing puzzle piece: an association between the closest known relative of the coronavirus and research conducted at the institute in Wuhan, China.

"Finding it, at that moment, felt big," the Seeker, says, "like a homicide detective solving a cold case."

Minutes after reading the abstract, he posted his find to Twitter, in a long tweet thread tagging members of a loosely defined group known as Drastic, a "Decentralized Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating COVID-19." The master's thesis had the potential to rewrite the origin story of the pandemic.
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Old 25th May 2021, 10:14 AM   #592
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Nobody said anything about a final word except you. The tentative conclusion is that it came, as diseases often do, from an animal source. Do you or do you not have evidence that it didn't?
OK then, I misunderstood this:
Originally Posted by Belz
Oh, look! There's evidence that it jumped from bats to us. Gee, who'd have thought, eh?
I accept that's not what you meant

Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Ok, what are you waiting for, then?
The thread is full of this evidence.

At this point none of the hypotheses have conclusive smoking guns. At least one has been ruled out, that of an artificially created virus. The hypothesis the pangolin was the intermediary species has become highly unlikely for several reasons.

As was noted in a link in my post: After more than a year no intermediary species has been found.

The closest virus has been found in bats in Yunnan and it was capable of infecting people directly with no intermediary species step. And samples of that virus were collected by researchers at the WIV.

So when you say there is evidence it jumped from bats to people it is a viable hypothesis.

Posted upthread is evidence the lab was working with live cultures. I won't review the evidence for that here.


So what is missing to say the lab was definitely the source?

When the first cases occurred probably goes back to Sept 2019 when the Chinese took a lot of WIV research offline.

One researcher, Andersen, did calculate, using a biological clock, back to Sept. 2019. At that point he found two distinct lineages. And that is where it's being argued that is evidence it didn't start in Wuhan.

However, what is lacking is any trail from elsewhere to Wuhan. From my understanding of Andersen's work, the specimens he analyzed were evidence of where the lineages are found, but it wasn't evidence the lineages went from elsewhere in the world to Wuhan.


Wuhan remains an incredibly unlikely place the pandemic began except for the location of the WIV. And to have 2 distinct lineages coincidentally turn up in Wuhan is even less probable.

It would seem to be a well supported hypotheses that there were 2 lineages in Wuhan in Sept. But if the pandemic began in Wuhan, 2 lineages is also a difficult bit to resolve. IOW it must have started elsewhere.


Take your pick of unresolved puzzle bits.
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Old 25th May 2021, 10:23 AM   #593
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I accept that's not what you meant
I meant exactly what I typed.

Quote:
The thread is full of this evidence.
Some people from the lab got sick. Ok, got sick with what?

Quote:
The closest virus has been found in bats in Yunnan and it was capable of infecting people directly with no intermediary species step. And samples of that virus were collected by researchers at the WIV.

So when you say there is evidence it jumped from bats to people it is a viable hypothesis.
Yeah, as in there's evidence to support it. That doesn't mean that it's the only possible explanation. But THAT doesn't mean that we can wildly speculate.

Quote:
So what is missing to say the lab was definitely the source?
Quite a lot, actually.
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Old 25th May 2021, 10:34 AM   #594
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Yeah, as in there's evidence to support it. That doesn't mean that it's the only possible explanation. But THAT doesn't mean that we can wildly speculate.
I think it's reasonable here to speculate that you jumped into this thread without reading it.

There is a lot of info that may give you some insight into where the conversation is at this point after hundreds of posts with a lot of facts and research.
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Old 25th May 2021, 10:37 AM   #595
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
I think it's reasonable here to speculate that you jumped into this thread without reading it.

There is a lot of info that may give you some insight into where the conversation is at this point after hundreds of posts with a lot of facts and research.
Let's assume for a second that you're right. What would be the most important bit of information that points in that direction?
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Old 25th May 2021, 10:52 AM   #596
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post

There's a CT thread if you want to discuss the origin in terms other than evidence based. Please use it.
Yes and any escape from a lab"discussion belongs there because ALL such theories necessarily involve a conspiracy to cover up the fact Covid-19 was "already being studied in a lab". If it was in a lab in 2019 then the only reason not to have identified it already would be a conspiracy to cover up it's existence.
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Old 25th May 2021, 01:01 PM   #597
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Getting back to the earlier links, this one favors the hypothesis of a natural spillover. Cutting to the chase:
Quote:
In Lab Leak scenarios diversification of SARS-CoV-2 to its two separate early lineages A and B would have had to occur in the laboratory setting. Lab Leak scenarios must also account for the fact that the majority of early cases were associated with different wildlife markets in Wuhan.
I'm not buying that "associated with different wildlife markets" without the detailed evidence. (Apparently it is in the WHO report.)

Two reasons, the initial wildlife market cases were consistent with a super-spreader event, not a common animal source. And connections to other markets has been dubious. For example one patient never went to any wildlife market, only her son had and he had no serological evidence of an infection.

Where specifically is this evidence?
Quote:
Theories on SARS-CoV-2 must also account for the fact that two distinct lineages of SARS-CoV-2 were distributed at different Wuhan wildlife markets.
I'll need to look at the WHO Report (next post).


Quote:
It also provides simple explanations for the fact that two different lineages of SARS-CoV-2 were linked to markets. In one possible scenario divergence of SARS-CoV-2 to lineages A and B occurred prior to the transport of infected animals to Wuhan and the infected animals were subsequently distributed to different wildlife markets.
So in that scenario ready to go viruses (ie matched to human cells) circulated in some wildlife species prior to said animals being shipped to Wuhan markets. And yet the virus did not emerge sporadically all over China, but only in Wuhan. And twice in Wuhan at about the same time no less.

To fit this to a spillover event explaining the two lineages as coming from wildlife markets one needs the evidence all the cases were linked to wildlife markets. It should be very easy to find the source intermediary animal species. And yet after a year and a half, no such species has been found. These authors suggest that is the most likely scenario explaining the 2 lineages. With such a huge clue one would think it only needed a routine search to find that species.


Quote:
A temporal analysis of the early human cases at the Huanan market confirms the pattern of spread from the areas of the market where wildlife products were sold to other parts of the market.
Yes but, the super-spreader event at the Wuhan market also explains all those findings.


The data for the above animal market hypothesis is here:
Quote:
WHO, 2021. “WHO-convened global study of origins of SARS- CoV-2: China part”; http://www.who.int/publications/i/it...v-2-china-part.
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Old 25th May 2021, 01:13 PM   #598
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Well this is most telling about all that market sources evidence in the WHO report and it was posted before:

After the report cited above: WHO calls for further studies, data on origin of SARS-CoV-2 virus, reiterates that all hypotheses remain open
Quote:
The report of the international team on their Wuhan field visit, from 14 January -10 February 2021, was published today as WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called for further studies. ...
The report is a couple hundred pages long and it'll take a bit of time to see what the animal markets (plural) evidence is.
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Old 25th May 2021, 01:51 PM   #599
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
The Chinese government putting out a report the virus emerged in a wild animal farm and was shipped to various wet markets is a CT. Daszak pushing his various theories, directing the WHO team to look elsewhere is a CT.

See how that works?

There's a CT thread if you want to discuss the origin in terms other than evidence based. Please use it.
Huh? The idea that wild animal farms led to the outbreak is not a CT. It’s only a CT if you assume it was a lab leak in which case your idea that they put out this report to throw people off the lab leak trail is a CT - the CT that YOU are a proponent of. lomiller is correct that any lab leak scenario is a CT. Spillover is NOT a CT.
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Old 25th May 2021, 01:53 PM   #600
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From the WHO report (the pdf file can be downloaded from the link):
Quote:
Many of the early cases were associated with the Huanan market, but a similar number of cases were
associated with other markets and some were not associated with any markets. Transmission within the
wider community in December could account for cases not associated with the Huanan market which,
together with the presence of early cases not associated with that market, could suggest that the Huanan
market was not the original source of the outbreak. Other milder cases that were not identified, however,
could provide the link between the Huanan market and early cases without an apparent link to the
market. No firm conclusion therefore about the role of the Huanan market in the origin of the outbreak,
or how the infection was introduced into the market, can currently be drawn
No details.


Quote:
Finally, the team reviewed data from published studies from different countries suggesting early
circulation of SARS-CoV-2. The findings suggest that circulation of SARS-CoV-2 preceded the initial
detection of cases by several weeks. Some of the suspected positive samples were detected even earlier ....
I believe this was serological evidence, not verified PCR samples. We discussed that upthread.

Aaand what we already know:
Quote:
However, the presence of SARS-CoV-2 has not been detected
through sampling and testing of bats or of wildlife across China. More than 80 000 wildlife, livestock
and poultry samples were collected from 31 provinces in China and no positive result was identified for
SARS-CoV-2 antibody or nucleic acid before and after the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in China. Through
extensive testing of animal products in the Huanan market, no evidence of animal infections was found. ...

Preliminary sampling and testing of other markets in
Wuhan and upstream suppliers to the Huanan market taken during 2020 did not reveal evidence of
SARS-CoV-2 circulating in animals...

Aaannnd we are back to this PC BS:
Quote:
The joint team’s assessment of likelihood of each possible pathway was as follows:
• direct zoonotic spillover is considered to be a possible-to-likely pathway;
• introduction through an intermediate host is considered to be a likely to very likely pathway;
• introduction through cold/ food chain products is considered a possible pathway;
introduction through a laboratory incident was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway.

A clue I'm setting aside for later:
Quote:
It also directly infects endothelial cells lining the
blood vessels, unusually for a human respiratory virus.

Evidence COVID was not circulating in other parts of China and wasn't circulating before the end of 2019:
Quote:
Conclusions
Based on the sentinel surveillance data for ILI, and the associated laboratory-confirmed influenza
activity, in Wuhan as well as Hubei and six surrounding provinces, there was a marked increase in ILI
in both children and adults at the end of 2019 in Wuhan, but no evidence to suggest substantial SARSCoV-2 transmission in the months preceding the outbreak in December was observed. The increase in
ILI is mirrored in the remainder of Hubei Province and in neighbouring provinces and municipalities.
While this increase may be explained by a contemporary increase in laboratory-confirmed influenza
activity, further time series analyses were recommended and are underway to ensure that no other
signals are present. ...

Conclusions
Review of retrospective testing of respiratory tract swabs collected within the ILI and SARI surveillance
system, and the adult sentinel surveillance data for ILI from one hospital in Wuhan and SARI
surveillance data from a provincial hospital in Hubei Province revealed no clear indication of substantial
unrecognized circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan during the latter part of 2019. Further time series
analyses are underway.
Definitely not consistent with wide distribution via infected animals shipped all over China.


Further evidence it started in late 2019 in Wuhan:
Quote:
Conclusions
Analysis of four months of aggregated retail pharmacy purchases for antipyretics, cold and cough
medications over a period of four years was unlikely to provide a useful indicator of early SARS-CoV2 activity in the community.

More evidence it started in Wuhan:
Quote:
Given the time lag from onset of disease to COVID-19-associated death of a median of 17 days (12-22
days) in Wuhan, the documented rapid increase in all-cause mortality in week 3 of 2020 and pneumoniaspecific deaths in week 3 of 2020 suggests that virus transmission was widespread among the population
of Wuhan by the first week (1-7 January) of 2020. The steep incline in mortality rate occurred with 1-
2 weeks’ delay among the population in the Hubei Province outside Wuhan, supporting the previously
reported (16) notion that the epidemic in Wuhan predated the spread in the rest of Hubei Province.

It's tiring to do this report justice all in one go. More to follow.....
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