ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags agw , climate change , global warming , global warming denial

Reply
Old 28th January 2018, 05:45 PM   #41
Red Baron Farms
Illuminator
 
Red Baron Farms's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Oklahoma
Posts: 4,200
Not about to be shoved back into a bottle anytime soon, and incapable of doing the same, or capable but with difficulty, are three entirely different things.

We know how to fix it. It's not even difficult. In fact it can even be done at a profit.

Will we do it? Unlikely. But the reason it is unlikely in my opinion, as Neoluddites are not willing to give up their billions in subsidies for types of agriculture that cause AGW any more than the fossil fuel companies are willing to give up their subsidies, has nothing to do with difficulty sequestering CO2.

Can we? Yes
Will we? Unlikely
__________________
Scott
"Permaculture is a philosophy of working with, rather than against nature; of protracted & thoughtful observation rather than protracted & thoughtless labour; & of looking at plants & animals in all their functions, rather than treating any area as a single-product system." Bill Mollison
Biome Carbon Cycle Management

Last edited by Red Baron Farms; 28th January 2018 at 06:36 PM.
Red Baron Farms is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th February 2018, 02:15 PM   #42
Trakar
Penultimate Amazing
 
Trakar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 12,437
El Niño/La Niña

Looks like we've still got La Nina conditions lingering, though that seems to be shifting/transitional right now, and is most likely to become ENSO - neutral by spring...:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ensodisc.shtml

Quote:
Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season)...

La Niña is anticipated to continue affecting temperature and precipitation across the United States during the next few months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday February 15th). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States...
__________________
Trakar
"By doubting we come to inquiry, and through inquiry we perceive truth." — Peter Abelard
"My civilization can do anything!" - David Brin (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i275AvgVvow)
Trakar is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th February 2018, 04:07 PM   #43
macdoc
Philosopher
 
macdoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Planet earth on slow boil
Posts: 7,927
I can attest to the latter First time in a decade I'm not Down Under
macdoc is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th February 2018, 10:30 PM   #44
Trakar
Penultimate Amazing
 
Trakar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 12,437
Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
I can attest to the latter First time in a decade I'm not Down Under
I can understand that, I'm more in the N. Cal., S. Ore region, though I am contemplating a N. Wa move in the next decade, so the precip rates are more an issue, but it's helping (so far) more than hurting, with some bad luck, it could get less pleasant with a minor ripple of the jet stream (or wiggle of the climate "MoJO" - https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...why-do-we-care -).
__________________
Trakar
"By doubting we come to inquiry, and through inquiry we perceive truth." — Peter Abelard
"My civilization can do anything!" - David Brin (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i275AvgVvow)
Trakar is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th February 2018, 12:11 PM   #45
lomiller
Philosopher
 
lomiller's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 9,415
Confirmation that sea level rise is accelerating.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/02/06/1717312115
__________________
"Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen"
lomiller is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 14th February 2018, 04:15 PM   #46
macdoc
Philosopher
 
macdoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Planet earth on slow boil
Posts: 7,927
Swinging jet stream is crazy as Arctic intrusions to the south alternate with too warm.

-15 last night, +5 today going to +10 next week. Very odd Feb....yet very warm again in the Arctic

Quote:
Is warming in the Arctic behind this year's crazy winter weather?

Jan 11, 2018 - A very new and “hot topic” in climate change research is the notion that rapid warming and wholesale melting of the Arctic may be playing a role in causing persistent cold spells ... Weird and destructive weather was in the news almost constantly during 2017, and 2018 seems to be following the same script.
https://theconversation.com/is-warmi...-weather-89740

gets expensive this erratic weather

Quote:
Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Overview
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

Last edited by macdoc; 14th February 2018 at 04:17 PM.
macdoc is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2018, 04:43 AM   #47
macdoc
Philosopher
 
macdoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Planet earth on slow boil
Posts: 7,927
Quote:
Soil cannot halt climate change
Long-term field experiments, dating back as far as 1843, demonstrate that modern carbon emissions cannot be locked in the ground to halt global warming
Date:
February 28, 2018
Source:
Rothamsted Research
Summary:
Unique soils data from long-term experiments, stretching back to the middle of the nineteenth century, confirm the practical implausibility of burying carbon in the ground to halt climate change. The idea of using crops to collect more atmospheric carbon and locking it into soil's organic matter to offset fossil fuel emissions was launched at COP21, the 21st annual Conference of Parties to review the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris in 2015.
more
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0228134114.htm

Meanwhile back in the real world.

Quote:
'Wacky' weather makes Arctic warmer than parts of Europe - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/.../...than-parts-of-...
3 days ago - On the northern tip of Greenland, the Cape Morris Jesup meteorological site has had a record-smashing 61 hours of temperatures above freezing so far in 2018, linked to a rare retreat of sea ice in the Arctic winter darkness. “It's never been this extreme,” said Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish ...
interesting times...
macdoc is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2018, 05:52 AM   #48
Belz...
Fiend God
 
Belz...'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 76,590
Ok so let's plant 5-6 billion trees...
__________________
Master of the Shining Darkness

"My views are nonsense. So what?" - BobTheCoward


Belz... is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2018, 07:14 AM   #49
macdoc
Philosopher
 
macdoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Planet earth on slow boil
Posts: 7,927
pittance

Quote:
3.04 trillion trees
The study found that there are around 3.04 trillion trees
and we are losing more than that

Quote:
Around 15 billion are lost every year due to deforestation, forest management and changes in land use, the research published in the journal Nature found.

Last edited by macdoc; 1st March 2018 at 07:15 AM.
macdoc is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st March 2018, 06:02 PM   #50
Distracted1
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 2,628
Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
pittance



and we are losing more than that
Astounding.
__________________
The man with one watch knows what time it is, the man with two watches is never sure.
Distracted1 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th March 2018, 01:40 PM   #51
macdoc
Philosopher
 
macdoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Planet earth on slow boil
Posts: 7,927
Impact on ocean nutrient flow ....better buy fishing rights near the Antarctic ....climate change is erecting a trade barrier...

Quote:
FLOODING, HEAT WAVES, AND DESTABILIZED ECOSYSTEMS: HERE'S WHAT THE NEXT 100 YEARS OF CLIMATE CHANGE COULD BRING

A new study predicts a steep drop in fisheries' production. It's the latest in a growing body of research to show how changes to the Earth's ecosystems will cause disruption to its inhabitants.
https://psmag.com/environment/climate-change-timeline

snip

Quote:
The disappearance of sea ice disrupts the flow of nutrients to northern marine ecosystems, says study author J. Keith Moore, a professor of Earth system science at the University of California–Irvine and one of the developers of the Community Earth System Model that enables researchers to predict further into the future. As the ice melts, the production of phytoplankton, a microscopic plant-like organism at the bottom of the marine food chain, increases around Antarctica. However, as the ice melts, the phytoplankton absorb more sunlight and trap more nutrients in the Antarctic sea area. This causes significantly more nutrients to sink to the deep southern ocean instead of moving northward to other marine ecosystems. "In upper oceans, everywhere to the north, you start to see this steadily declining nutrient concentration," Moore says.
macdoc is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th March 2018, 11:00 PM   #52
Trakar
Penultimate Amazing
 
Trakar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 12,437
Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
Impact on ocean nutrient flow ....better buy fishing rights near the Antarctic ....climate change is erecting a trade barrier...



https://psmag.com/environment/climate-change-timeline

snip
I wonder about the extent of the willingness of the international community to establish a shifting network of global, protected, international, aquaculture nurseries and a system of sustainable international harvest seasons/permits/policing. Regardless of whether or not they want to deal (seriously and appropriately) with the causes of climate change, they are going to have to adapt to the realities of climate change consequences.
__________________
Trakar
"By doubting we come to inquiry, and through inquiry we perceive truth." — Peter Abelard
"My civilization can do anything!" - David Brin (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i275AvgVvow)
Trakar is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st July 2018, 08:03 AM   #53
carlosy
Thinker
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 129
Maybe the daily Trumputistan show is supressing the real desasters...

Global warming and it's desasters are happening, right now.
Many new record temperatures across the northern hemisphere.
Draught in europe and elsewhere.
German farmers expecting crop failure up to 70%, calling for compensations of one billion euros.
Etc.

Quote:
Extreme weather, including record temperatures and heatwaves, drought and disastrous precipitation, has marked the first half of summer in the northern hemisphere. This has had widespread impacts on human health, agriculture, ecosystems and infrastructure and led to devastating wildfires.
...
On June 28, Quriyat, just south of Muscat, on the coast of Oman, recorded a 24-hour minimum temperature of 42.6°C, meaning that the coolest overnight temperature did not drop below that level. Although highest “low” temperature is not currently monitored as a category in the WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Archive, it is believed to be the highest such temperature ever recorded by a thermometer.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news...r-high-impacts


42.6°C lowest at night, good lord.

carlosy is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th August 2018, 07:37 PM   #54
Fudbucker
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 8,537
The hottest-ever record was set in 1913. Why hasn't a new record been set since then?

Last edited by Fudbucker; 15th August 2018 at 07:39 PM.
Fudbucker is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th August 2018, 08:21 PM   #55
Reality Check
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 23,128
Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
The hottest-ever record was set in 1913. Why hasn't a new record been set since then?
Is that the irrelevant to global temperatures and climate Death Valley temperature? The hottest global temperature was 2016.
Reality Check is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th August 2018, 09:52 PM   #56
Venom
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 1,761
Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
The hottest-ever record was set in 1913. Why hasn't a new record been set since then?
Just wait.

But those records are by definition anomalies anyway, a particular location on Earth at one time. In the Guinness World Records it's the "hottest recorded temperature on Earth".

Last edited by Venom; 15th August 2018 at 09:53 PM.
Venom is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th August 2018, 06:28 AM   #57
lomiller
Philosopher
 
lomiller's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 9,415
Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
The hottest-ever record was set in 1913. Why hasn't a new record been set since then?
Hottest ever record for what?
__________________
"Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen"
lomiller is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th August 2018, 12:41 PM   #58
Red Baron Farms
Illuminator
 
Red Baron Farms's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Oklahoma
Posts: 4,200
Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
The hottest-ever record was set in 1913. Why hasn't a new record been set since then?
Probably a recording or instrument error. It is possible, but pretty unlikely to be true. The undisputed highest ever record temp was in 2013 in Death Valley.

However, what does this have to do with AGW? Which is an average increase in temps over the entire planet in a 30 year + period? One high temp for a couple hours, even if it was true on one tiny canyon in California, is a far cry from the whole world averaged over 30+ years!

I think what has happened is you were reading some merchants of doubt sponsored bull pucky designed to obfuscate the reality of AGW.
__________________
Scott
"Permaculture is a philosophy of working with, rather than against nature; of protracted & thoughtful observation rather than protracted & thoughtless labour; & of looking at plants & animals in all their functions, rather than treating any area as a single-product system." Bill Mollison
Biome Carbon Cycle Management
Red Baron Farms is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th August 2018, 02:20 PM   #59
Fudbucker
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 8,537
Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms View Post
Probably a recording or instrument error. It is possible, but pretty unlikely to be true. The undisputed highest ever record temp was in 2013 in Death Valley.

However, what does this have to do with AGW? Which is an average increase in temps over the entire planet in a 30 year + period? One high temp for a couple hours, even if it was true on one tiny canyon in California, is a far cry from the whole world averaged over 30+ years!

I think what has happened is you were reading some merchants of doubt sponsored bull pucky designed to obfuscate the reality of AGW.
I don't doubt agw. Just was curious why record has lasted so long.
Fudbucker is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th August 2018, 03:02 PM   #60
aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
 
aleCcowaN's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,397
Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
I don't doubt agw. Just was curious why record has lasted so long.
AGW brings higher global average temperature but also higher variability. There are regions of the planet that aren't warming at an important rate. Also, the higher variability makes both high and low temperatures to reach extreme records. They key is that record-breaking highs fourfold record-breaking lows, as it is consistent with higher variability in a context of average temperature going higher and higher.

That said. There's the problem that so far this analysis doesn't take into account variations in the very same weather stations that give those old and new records. Bad placement, bad maintenance, etc can bring anomalous values. That is currently extremely rare in the First World, but not in 1913.

I don't have the faintest idea which old record are you talking about, but if it is an extremely high temperature in an extremely dry place like a desert then that temperature heavily depends on solar irradiation. And that hasn't basically change since 1913.
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out.
I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it.
aleCcowaN is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th August 2018, 03:37 PM   #61
Fudbucker
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 8,537
Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
AGW brings higher global average temperature but also higher variability. There are regions of the planet that aren't warming at an important rate. Also, the higher variability makes both high and low temperatures to reach extreme records. They key is that record-breaking highs fourfold record-breaking lows, as it is consistent with higher variability in a context of average temperature going higher and higher.

That said. There's the problem that so far this analysis doesn't take into account variations in the very same weather stations that give those old and new records. Bad placement, bad maintenance, etc can bring anomalous values. That is currently extremely rare in the First World, but not in 1913.

I don't have the faintest idea which old record are you talking about, but if it is an extremely high temperature in an extremely dry place like a desert then that temperature heavily depends on solar irradiation. And that hasn't basically change since 1913.
It's what pops up when you google "What's the hottest ever temperature?"

"134.1 °F
According to the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO), the highest temperature ever recorded was 56.7 °C (134.1 °F) on 10 July 1913 in Furnace Creek (Greenland Ranch), California, USA. According to the WMO this temperature may have been the result of "a sandstorm that occurred at the time."


I assumed that was correct. Your explanation makes sense. I wondered whether it was a freak weather phenomenon that caused the high temperature.
Fudbucker is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th August 2018, 04:02 PM   #62
aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
 
aleCcowaN's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,397
«On 13 September 1922, a high temperature of 58.0 °C (136.4 °F) was recorded in Al-ʿAzīzīyah. This was long considered the highest temperature ever measured on Earth.[2][3][4]
However, that reading was controversial:[5][6][7]
  1. The weather station was first in 'Aziziya town, but, in 1919, it was moved to a hilltop fort, where the weather station was set up on black tarmac, which would have absorbed more sunlight and made the air there artificially hotter, explaining a period of very hot readings there from 1919 to 1928.
  2. Shortly before the record reading on 13 September 1922, the weather station's usual maximum thermometer had been damaged and then replaced by an uncalibrated, ordinary maximum-minimum thermometer such as often used in greenhouses.
  3. On 11 September 1922, the usual record keeper was replaced by an inexperienced observer, who was untrained in the use of the thermometer and the record log. This is known by the change in handwriting on the log sheets and by the high and low temperatures being recorded in the wrong columns. The thermometer used sliding colored cylinders to record maximum and minimum temperatures, and these cylinders were about 7 to 8 degrees Celsius long on the thermometer scale. The WMO now believes that the inexperienced observer was reading from the wrong end of the high-temperature cylinder inside the thermometer, getting a reading which was 7 to 8 degrees too high.
  4. On 13 September 2012, the World Meteorological Organization announced that the WMO Commission of Climatology World Archive of Weather and Climate Extremes had found that the record was invalid. Its world record for hottest temperature is now 56.7 °C (134.1 °F), recorded on 10 July 1913 at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California in the United States.[8]»
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated, or covfefe your soul!These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out.
I got tired of the actual schizophrenics that are taking hold part of the forum and decided to do something about it.
aleCcowaN is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th August 2018, 03:31 PM   #63
michael44
Critical Thinker
 
michael44's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Blasphemy St.
Posts: 367
Quote from article: "In Broken Hill, 935km (580 miles) west of Sydney, groups of emus have been seen "running laps of the main street, eating gardens and gate crashing football matches", ABC News reports.

Ms Singleton, who works for the Rescue and Rehabilitation of Australian Native Animals, said: "We've had 14 on a sporting oval. They've been out there for weeks - the locals in that area are giving them food and water."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-aus...239791?SThisFB

michael44 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th August 2018, 08:12 PM   #64
Venom
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 1,761
Global warming can make extreme weather worse. Now scientists can say by how much.

snippet:

Quote:
Otto is one of the leading scientists in the rapidly evolving field of extreme events attribution. The discipline is being driven by an increasing focus among academics, by better data collection worldwide and by open-source computer models that allow researchers ready access to complex climate simulations, particularly of what Earth’s temperatures likely would have looked like without the profusion of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases over the last century.

Many of the researchers in the field are determined to ensure that experts, not amateurs, drive the discussion of unusual weather. “If the answer is not given by scientists, it will be given by politicians or someone with an agenda,” Otto said. “We want to make sure there is scientific evidence in this debate.”
Venom is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 08:04 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.