ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags Coronavirus , diseases

Reply
Old 25th March 2020, 09:42 PM   #81
Sherkeu
Graduate Poster
 
Sherkeu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Disneyland
Posts: 1,310
Is there any place that presents the current infections by population centers only ...i.e. without regard to borders?
And also takes out returning/repatriated travelers so that I could see community transmissions?

I'd just like to see a map that tells about cases spreading within a geographical place. Not the imports.
Sherkeu is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th March 2020, 09:43 PM   #82
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 47,920
The death toll in the US will pass a Thousand tommorow for sure, if it has not done so in one of this evenings updates.
What's that about 15 and going down?
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th March 2020, 09:45 PM   #83
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 47,920
Looks as though New Orleans is going to be the next big city hard hit.
Atlanta also looks as if it will be bad also.
And the Governor of Florida is blaming the Corona virus outbreak on New York. Man is sturly a moron.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th March 2020, 09:53 PM   #84
Kings Full
Critical Thinker
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Texas
Posts: 269
Are you aware that literally thousands of rich NYCers fled the city and many went to FL?
__________________
I decided to take the train to work one day and as luck would have it I sat across from a stunningly beautiful young Indonesian girl. I kept saying to myself, please don't get an erection, please don't get an erection.... but she did!
Kings Full is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th March 2020, 10:01 PM   #85
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 80,079
Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Is there any place that presents the current infections by population centers only ...i.e. without regard to borders?
And also takes out returning/repatriated travelers so that I could see community transmissions?

I'd just like to see a map that tells about cases spreading within a geographical place. Not the imports.
It's spreading locally. I'm unclear what you are looking for you don't have.
__________________
Trump Lied, People Died What color hat should I order with that logo? I think red on black.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th March 2020, 10:07 PM   #86
rjh01
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
 
rjh01's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 25,544
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Incompetrump is mine.
It is a hashtag on twitter. Your influence must be great.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/incompetrump?lang=en

Here is an interesting chart. Show how death rate is going up in different countries. It highlights how many days it takes for the number of deaths to double compared with other countries. To get on this list a country needs 25 deaths and measurements start from there.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...y-country.html

For those that do not want to click on the link
South Korea and Japan are doing the best. The USA was doing well, but now is racing towards disaster. Spain and Italy are disaster zones.
__________________
This signature is for rent.
rjh01 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th March 2020, 10:14 PM   #87
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 80,079
Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
It is a hashtag on twitter. Your influence must be great.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/incompetrump?lang=en
It would not surprise me either way, either others thought of it as well (it is intuitive), or, it was spread from one of the forums I've posted it on.

I can say I posted it without reading it anywhere else first.
__________________
Trump Lied, People Died What color hat should I order with that logo? I think red on black.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th March 2020, 10:20 PM   #88
Sherkeu
Graduate Poster
 
Sherkeu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Disneyland
Posts: 1,310
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
It's spreading locally. I'm unclear what you are looking for you don't have.
Do you know a site that show how it is spreading?

What I want to see are the number of people that get infected AT THAT LOCATION. Not arriving from somewhere else with it and then being reported in a city/county/state/province/country stat as if it happened there.

There's no way to know how it spreads in certain locations if numbers include all these imports- they should be listed but separated out. Also, in the maps I see, borders cut stats between countries which doesnt tell the true story. e.g. If a big outbreak is happening in an area at the border of Iran and Pakistan, I'd like to see that total, and not individual country stats separated. Like looking at a borderless community spread.

Does that make sense?
Sherkeu is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th March 2020, 10:49 PM   #89
marting
Graduate Poster
 
marting's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,306
Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Do you know a site that show how it is spreading?

What I want to see are the number of people that get infected AT THAT LOCATION. Not arriving from somewhere else with it and then being reported in a city/county/state/province/country stat as if it happened there.

There's no way to know how it spreads in certain locations if numbers include all these imports- they should be listed but separated out. Also, in the maps I see, borders cut stats between countries which doesnt tell the true story. e.g. If a big outbreak is happening in an area at the border of Iran and Pakistan, I'd like to see that total, and not individual country stats separated. Like looking at a borderless community spread.

Does that make sense?
If you're interested in a specific place google the city and coronavirus. Many county health departments report some details. For instance Lubbock TX until very recently had no cases. Then, a few weeks ago a few started coming in. Each was investigated and ascribed to either community spread (unknown but local), spread from an identified person earlier, or an external import (Texas Tech has a lot of people from all over the country) . initially, the large majority were from imports, now it's mostly community spread. This is typical. Once it starts showing up somewhere it becomes largely community spread within just a few weeks.
__________________
Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.
marting is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th March 2020, 11:06 PM   #90
Sherkeu
Graduate Poster
 
Sherkeu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Disneyland
Posts: 1,310
Originally Posted by marting View Post
If you're interested in a specific place google the city and coronavirus. Many county health departments report some details. For instance Lubbock TX until very recently had no cases. Then, a few weeks ago a few started coming in. Each was investigated and ascribed to either community spread (unknown but local), spread from an identified person earlier, or an external import (Texas Tech has a lot of people from all over the country) . initially, the large majority were from imports, now it's mostly community spread. This is typical. Once it starts showing up somewhere it becomes largely community spread within just a few weeks.
Thanks. I really just want to see the whole picture. Lubbock happens to be pretty isolated. Brownsville/Matamoros area would be more something I'd like to see plotted on a map and not separated between US/Mexico. Think of it as looking at the Earth without any consideration to countries. Just look at places with a certain density of humans.
And then only count humans who caught the virus in that place.
Sherkeu is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th March 2020, 11:08 PM   #91
marting
Graduate Poster
 
marting's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,306
duplicate removed
__________________
Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.
marting is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 12:23 AM   #92
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 27,019
Originally Posted by Kings Full View Post
Are you aware that literally thousands of rich NYCers fled the city and many went to FL?
The scary thing is that thatís where rich New Yorkers go to retire isnít it?

Are they going to stay with their elderly relatives?
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 12:58 AM   #93
Planigale
Illuminator
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 3,814
I had previously posted about excess attributable mortality, and that not all patients dying from covid will be excess mortality because they will be 'expected' deaths.

Quote:
When looking at flu mortality we often look at excess deaths. There are deaths directly due to flu, usually due to pneumonia. But in the weeks after flu there are more than expected deaths from strokes and heart attacks. Infections often increase the 'stickiness' of blood and clotting events - thromboses significantly increase following an infection. These deaths are called excess attributable deaths, these can only be measured in retrospect. It is very likely we will see an excess of these events following the covid outbreak.

On the other hand, many of those dying are elderly with chronic health problems. Some will have died anyway even if Covid had not been present. In retrospect we will also find that excess mortality due to Covid may be less than total covid deaths because of inevitable deaths e.g. terminal cancer where the final event might have been covid today but would otherwise have been e.g. flu tomorrow. Finally because social distancing will reduce e.g. flu cases there will be fewer deaths from other respiratory infections.
Prof Fergusson newly recovered from covid himself has estimated expected mortality at about 2/3. So the excess mortality directly attributable to covid will be 1/3 of total deaths.
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 01:56 AM   #94
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 24,842
Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Prof Fergusson newly recovered from covid himself has estimated expected mortality at about 2/3. So the excess mortality directly attributable to covid will be 1/3 of total deaths.
We'll know soon enough anyway, but don't forget to factor in the lives saved through less pollution, so you get a fair picture.

I doubt the 2/3, but I'll wait to see.
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 02:22 AM   #95
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 24,842
And does Japan already know something but just not saying it?

https://www.theguardian.com/global-d...irus-explosion

It also yet again raises the question of if it's rampant, why aren't they weeing the deaths & severe cases at levels in Italy & Spain?
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 02:48 AM   #96
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 28,218
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
And does Japan already know something but just not saying it?

https://www.theguardian.com/global-d...irus-explosion

It also yet again raises the question of if it's rampant, why aren't they weeing the deaths & severe cases at levels in Italy & Spain?
My interpretation of the article is that they're trying to avoid it becoming as rampant as it is in Italy and Spain (and increasingly the UK and US) - because there are fears of a second wave of infection.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 03:02 AM   #97
Belz...
Fiend God
 
Belz...'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 88,977
Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
"I used to think I high a strong immune system. Turns out I just didn't hang out with tiny people who sneeze directly into your eyeball while telling you a story" - New Parent
I used to think I had a strong immune system. Turns out I worked in cubicles, and since my employer decided to go for open space offices, I'm sick way more often.
__________________
Master of the Shining Darkness

"My views are nonsense. So what?" - BobTheCoward


Belz... is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 03:26 AM   #98
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,864
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Ha! I know what you mean.

Yes, things are basically going on more or less as before, but there are requests to avoid various kinds of activities.

Municipal gyms and museums and other stuff that local and central governments can control are more or less shut down. That includes schools, or at least it did, but they are due to open again.

The thing is people are getting complacent given that here in Japan we haven't shot off the end of ramp yet like so many other countries.

I remember a few weeks ago my sisters in England and in France assuming we had been locked down, when all that was going on was school closures. Then the countries they lived in seemed to blow right past us. I was pretty surprised that they had still been going to crowded pubs, international rugby matches, restaurants, church etc... and treating it as no big thing to.... complete lockdown. Things happened very quickly (but not quickly enough!).

But yes, Japan still has workdays and weekends, but I really do think it is going to move the same way, and in Japan that could be severe given that we have the oldest population in the world here.
I'm in Tokyo, and I can confirm this.

I commute every day by train for an hour and a half each way. Life in Tokyo goes on pretty much as normal. More people are wearing masks than usual (myself included), but that's about the only noticeable difference. Any different in Osaka? The cherry blossoms are blooming now.
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 03:38 AM   #99
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,217
UK figures for deaths is lower than it should be because the Govt are saying they can't release information about deaths without permission from next of kin because of 'Data protection rules'

Do we believe them?
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 04:15 AM   #100
Abooga
Muse
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 782
http://www.rai.it/dl/RaiTV/programmi...7dc47565b.html

In this 2015 Italian tv program they spoke of a synthetic virus that the Chinese were experimenting with, a type of coronavirus, that attacked the lungs and... Something about bats... Perhaps Giordano can translate for us...
Abooga is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 04:15 AM   #101
Ulf Nereng
Thinker
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Norway
Posts: 171
I wouldn't have thought that "Data protection rules" are about protecting data from being put in a national statistic, but I guess data have feelings, too.
Ulf Nereng is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 04:32 AM   #102
Ivor the Engineer
Philosopher
 
Ivor the Engineer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 9,504
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
UK figures for deaths is lower than it should be because the Govt are saying they can't release information about deaths without permission from next of kin because of 'Data protection rules'

Do we believe them?
Source for this claim? Searched online and can't find anything.
Ivor the Engineer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 04:34 AM   #103
catsmate
No longer the 1
 
catsmate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 21,924
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I wonder if they can actually keep the plague out. I'm going with: No. It will come on on fomites.
Isolation works, right back to Eyam.
__________________
As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
catsmate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 04:36 AM   #104
Ivor the Engineer
Philosopher
 
Ivor the Engineer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 9,504
Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Isolation works, right back to Eyam.
That was the other way round though.
Ivor the Engineer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 04:39 AM   #105
Pixel42
SchrŲdinger's cat
 
Pixel42's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Malmesbury, UK
Posts: 11,722
After over 50 years Ralph McTell has finally written another verse to Streets of London.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52046893
__________________
"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett
Pixel42 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 04:44 AM   #106
catsmate
No longer the 1
 
catsmate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 21,924
Originally Posted by casebro View Post
No alcy in Lysol. It's not lye, but it's close.
No. Lysol contains cresols (where not banned), chlorophenol (where not banned) or benzalkonium chloride. Some professional products contain potassium hydroxide or hydrogen peroxide.
__________________
As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
catsmate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 04:47 AM   #107
catsmate
No longer the 1
 
catsmate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 21,924
Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer View Post
That was the other way round though.
True. Plenty of examples from 1918-19 of towns isolating themselves to stay safe.
__________________
As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
catsmate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 05:05 AM   #108
wea
Critical Thinker
 
wea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: EU, IT
Posts: 405
Originally Posted by Abooga View Post
http://www.rai.it/dl/RaiTV/programmi...7dc47565b.html

In this 2015 Italian tv program they spoke of a synthetic virus that the Chinese were experimenting with, a type of coronavirus, that attacked the lungs and... Something about bats... Perhaps Giordano can translate for us...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26552008

"A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence.", Nat Med. 2015 Dec, Menachery ...Baric


The published genome is different from the Sars-CoV-2

Last edited by wea; 26th March 2020 at 05:07 AM.
wea is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 05:30 AM   #109
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,217
Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer View Post
Source for this claim? Searched online and can't find anything.
BBC Newsnight did a whole piece on it last night.
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 05:37 AM   #110
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 27,019
Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
After over 50 years Ralph McTell has finally written another verse to Streets of London.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52046893
There's a good reason for that...

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 05:41 AM   #111
Ethan Thane Athen
Master Poster
 
Ethan Thane Athen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 2,079
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
UK figures for deaths is lower than it should be because the Govt are saying they can't release information about deaths without permission from next of kin because of 'Data protection rules'

Do we believe them?
Data Protection only applies to information that could be personally identifiable ie attributed to a specific individual. It would not apply to quoting numbers of deaths surely?
Ethan Thane Athen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 05:45 AM   #112
casebro
Penultimate Amazing
 
casebro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 17,582
Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I had previously posted about excess attributable mortality, and that not all patients dying from covid will be excess mortality because they will be 'expected' deaths.



Prof Fergusson newly recovered from covid himself has estimated expected mortality at about 2/3. So the excess mortality directly attributable to covid will be 1/3 of total deaths.
End of year stats will tell, just look at the totals. But they won't be available for a couple/three years.

But that is exactly hie Italy is expressing their numbers "People who died after testing positive"
__________________
Great minds discuss ideas.
Medium minds discuss events.
Small minds spend all their time on U-Tube and Facebook.
casebro is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 05:50 AM   #113
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 27,019
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
And does Japan already know something but just not saying it?

https://www.theguardian.com/global-d...irus-explosion

It also yet again raises the question of if it's rampant, why aren't they weeing the deaths & severe cases at levels in Italy & Spain?
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
My interpretation of the article is that they're trying to avoid it becoming as rampant as it is in Italy and Spain (and increasingly the UK and US) - because there are fears of a second wave of infection.
Yes, I think they are probably thinking of getting further ahead of the virus than a lot of countries in Europe. I think they have a bit more freedom to do it now without the distraction of wishful thinking over the Olympics (apparently tens of thousands of people went to watch the torch relay even though officials had politely asked that spectators stay away), and K1 matches were going ahead in crowded stadiums as well.

Anyway, they explained that numbers in Tokyo were going up at an alarming rate. Yesterday there were supposed to have been 41 new cases in Tokyo, and today another 47. Before that it had been rising in the tens.

Maybe more concerning, and maybe the most important factor in the decision, is that whereas in the past, it had been easier to identify the clusters and where the new infections were coming from, it seems now that the clusters have become invisible. It's no longer clear how new infections are starting.


Anyway, as news has broken, it was met by some supermarket clearouts. Familiar images of empty shelves...


Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I'm in Tokyo, and I can confirm this.

I commute every day by train for an hour and a half each way. Life in Tokyo goes on pretty much as normal. More people are wearing masks than usual (myself included), but that's about the only noticeable difference. Any different in Osaka? The cherry blossoms are blooming now.
I have not been commuting almost at all recently, and stay at home for most of the day every day. The exception is to go out to the park with my son.

The cherry blossoms are not really out yet, according to the sakura front, full bloom is supposed to be from March 29th to April 6th. Tokyo's usually ahead of Osaka.

https://www.japan-guide.com/sakura/

I did take the subway for the first time in about a month today so I could attend a meeting at my university. The subways are not as heaving as they usually are, but there are still quite a few people going, almost everyone with a mask on and quite a few with bottles of alcohol. I was surprised that the gym at my uni is still open and they haven't even made any restrictions. I am suppressing the urge to go back into the university a couple of times a week to use it as my local municipal gym has closed down. I know I shouldn't though.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 05:54 AM   #114
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 27,019
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
We'll know soon enough anyway, but don't forget to factor in the lives saved through less pollution, so you get a fair picture.

I doubt the 2/3, but I'll wait to see.
Will we know soon enough?

I would think that there will be a lot of people who end up with a bad case of pneumonia caused by the virus who limp on for another few months or half a year after "recovering" who end up dying of a heart attack or stroke. I think these are the kinds of deaths that are considered "excess deaths". It will probably be difficult to count them until quite a while after.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 05:54 AM   #115
Kings Full
Critical Thinker
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Texas
Posts: 269
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
The scary thing is that thatís where rich New Yorkers go to retire isnít it?

Are they going to stay with their elderly relatives?
I'm sure some are staying with relatives while others have their winter homes there.
__________________
I decided to take the train to work one day and as luck would have it I sat across from a stunningly beautiful young Indonesian girl. I kept saying to myself, please don't get an erection, please don't get an erection.... but she did!
Kings Full is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 05:56 AM   #116
Pixel42
SchrŲdinger's cat
 
Pixel42's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Malmesbury, UK
Posts: 11,722
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
There's a good reason for that...
Hadn't seen that before.

My favourite McTell song is Naomi, which I consider the best love song ever written. I won't embed it because I'm way off topic but you can find it here.
__________________
"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett
Pixel42 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 06:06 AM   #117
Meridian
Thinker
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 216
Random Testing

Does anyone know of any country that's tested a random sample of the population? I can't seem to find any examples, though Iceland *may* be one. (It's not clear; they've certainly done some `anyone can be tested' testing, but I don't know whether they actually sampled randomly.)

This arises in the context of a draft paper from a group in Oxford (I'm not sure I want to link to it, as I think it is essentially misinformation) saying that perhaps (but they put it a bit stronger) 50% of the UK population was already infected by 19/3/2020. I think this is likely very far from the truth, and a dangerous claim to spread (it might cause people to think there is no longer any point in reducing contacts). I'm sure there are arguments against it (based on analysis form China, South Korea, Diamond Princess etc), but the very simplest and easiest to get across would be "We've just tested a random sample, and <x% currently have the disease."

If you suspect there may be a very high infection rate, even a small random sample is useful, as it can quickly rule this out. But I can't find an account of this having been done anywhere.

There's plenty of plans to do large scale antibody testing, but it seems this isn't quite ready and there are concerns about the false positive rate. But to rule out the `we are already at the peak of infections' hypothesis, one could do PCR testing *now*. So I don't really understand why this hasn't been done.
Meridian is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 06:12 AM   #118
Abooga
Muse
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 782
Originally Posted by Meridian View Post
Does anyone know of any country that's tested a random sample of the population? [...]
I Italy they tested everyone in a town of 3000: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...alted-covid-19
Abooga is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 06:14 AM   #119
William Parcher
Show me the monkey!
 
William Parcher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 24,759
New scientific paper...


Identifying SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses in Malayan pangolins

Originally Posted by Nature
Although bats are likely reservoir hosts for SARS-CoV-2, the identity of any intermediate host that might have facilitated transfer to humans is unknown. Here, we report the identification of SARS-CoV-2-related coronaviruses in Malayan pangolins (Manis javanica) seized in anti-smuggling operations in southern China. Metagenomic sequencing identified pangolin-associated coronaviruses that belong to two sub-lineages of SARS-CoV-2-related coronaviruses, including one that exhibits strong similarity to SARS-CoV-2 in the receptor-binding domain. The discovery of multiple lineages of pangolin coronavirus and their similarity to SARS-CoV-2 suggests that pangolins should be considered as possible hosts in the emergence of novel coronaviruses and should be removed from wet markets to prevent zoonotic transmission...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2169-0
__________________
Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot.
William Parcher is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th March 2020, 06:28 AM   #120
Meridian
Thinker
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 216
Originally Posted by Abooga View Post
I Italy they tested everyone in a town of 3000: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...alted-covid-19
Thanks! I'd seen that but forgotten it; it's certainly highly relevant. Unfortunately to be really useful one would also need to know how many people from VÚ were hospitalized/died. Someone knows that, but is the information publicly available? I've not manged to find it. It's not the best name for searching!
Meridian is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 07:13 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.