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Tags | ae911truth |
View Poll Results: What Percentage of AIA will support the WTC7 Resolution? |
0-4% | 50 | 87.72% | |
5-9% | 5 | 8.77% | |
10-14% | 1 | 1.75% | |
15-19% | 0 | 0% | |
20-24% | 0 | 0% | |
25-29% | 0 | 0% | |
30-34% | 0 | 0% | |
35-39% | 0 | 0% | |
40-44% | 0 | 0% | |
45-49% | 0 | 0% | |
50-54% | 1 | 1.75% | |
55-59% | 0 | 0% | |
60-64% | 0 | 0% | |
65-69% | 0 | 0% | |
70-74% | 0 | 0% | |
75-79% | 0 | 0% | |
80-84% | 0 | 0% | |
85-89% | 0 | 0% | |
90-94% | 0 | 0% | |
95-100% | 0 | 0% | |
Voters: 57. You may not vote on this poll |
18th April 2016, 02:36 PM | #41 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Spain
Posts: 3,692
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Yeah, last year it was a serious attempt at actually sneaking it in.
This year it's only about the donors, not about getting it passed. They gave up on that after the last results. So they're going full woo. |
24th April 2016, 09:08 AM | #42 |
Muse
Join Date: Mar 2010
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Ergo beedunked here. #FalseFlagCluelessAtPhysics. Skeptical Inquirer July/August 2011 issue on 9/11 Truth |
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24th April 2016, 10:18 AM | #43 |
Hasbarian NWO Templar Cattle
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"Bravery Is Not A Function Of Firepower." - JC Denton "And belief in conspiracy theories is not the function of a higher intellect." - BStrong |
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24th April 2016, 12:28 PM | #44 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,667
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For perspective:
Today, the AE911T petition has 372 licensed architects. Of these, about 117 are identified as AIA members. It's likely that more are AIA members without being identified as such. It's possible that some are identified as AIA members who are no longer. IIRC, being a licensed as an architect in the USA is a requirement for full AIA membership (as opposed to "Associate AIA"). The number of AE911T signers who are AIA members is thus most probably somewhere between 117 and 372. I don't know the current number of architect members, but remember it used to be in the neighborhood of 85,000. Thus, between 0.1% and 0.5% of the AIA membership has fallen for Gage's woo at some time between 2007 and now. That's significantly more than the percentage of engineers. |
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24th April 2016, 07:42 PM | #45 |
Philosopher
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25th April 2016, 12:21 AM | #46 |
Graduate Poster
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29th April 2016, 03:46 PM | #47 |
Skeptic not Atheist
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"Remember that the goal of conspiracy rhetoric is to bog down the discussion, not to make progress toward a solution" Jay Windley "How many leaves on the seventh branch of the fourth tree?" is meaningless when you are in the wrong forest: ozeco41 |
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29th April 2016, 04:53 PM | #48 |
Muse
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__________________
Ergo beedunked here. #FalseFlagCluelessAtPhysics. Skeptical Inquirer July/August 2011 issue on 9/11 Truth |
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13th May 2016, 07:35 AM | #49 |
Graduate Poster
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16th May 2016, 01:15 PM | #50 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 253
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3 days to go ...exciting !
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18th May 2016, 11:25 PM | #51 |
Muse
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 877
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Final Poisson Fit
Based on the tally as of today, I've updated my Poisson Distribution results. Here are the final numbers (see this post for an earlier workup).
The panel estimate for Saturday's vote is around 3. While Criteria's lone vote at 50-54% appears to be absent from the Poisson fit, it did influence the results; without this lone vote, the expected percentage would peak at around 2%. |
__________________
Ergo beedunked here. #FalseFlagCluelessAtPhysics. Skeptical Inquirer July/August 2011 issue on 9/11 Truth |
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19th May 2016, 05:10 AM | #52 |
Muse
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 512
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Gage will have the votes he walks in the room with ... no more than that ...
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22nd May 2016, 01:29 AM | #53 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,046
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Good to see FF has now voted.
I'm going to wait for clarification before I vote |
22nd May 2016, 02:01 AM | #54 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 253
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I am impressed that FF got it right, even if he voted after the AIA did.
Normally if truthers have the right information they usually don't know what to do with it. Well done FF |
25th May 2016, 07:14 AM | #55 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,667
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I wonder how many posts we would have seen in the days since the result was first rumoured if Gage had gotten only, say, 1% of the vote - I have a feeling that there would have been three pages from a dozend sneering debunkers. As it were, 50 of you underestimated AE911Truth by a factor of 3 or more, while Criteria overestimated by a factor of about 4.
Only 5 posters, myself included, had their guess closer to the result - I ticked "5-9%". Unfortunately, I neglected to write a comment in addition to my vote, and I may actually be kidding myself now, but my hunch was that they would improve up to double last year's vote - that would be 8%. Still wrong by a factor of 1.4, but I got the trend right, and so did heymatto70, ozeco41, Richard the G, sts60 (although sts60 commented "less than 10%") I wonder how the 50 are going to explain their lack of foresight? DGM ""Truthers" have done nothing over the last year that would warrant them getting more support." cantonear1968 "Much the same result. Margin of error +/- 3 percentage points." beachnut "Four to Six percent is a good sign that most AIA members are not insane, not paranoid on 9/11, not irrational on 9/11, not fooled by the fraud of Gage's CD claim." Ape of Good Hope "The reality is less impressive: [Image 0.06% AE]" (didn't vote though) Redwood "I doubt it'll get 1% of the vote."; "I'll give 3 to 1 in favor of this year's resolution failing worse than last year's." DaveThomasNMSR "Mean = μ = 3.3889[%]" WilliamSeger "I'm an optimist: Will anyone give me odds on an even smaller vote this year? " pgimeno "This year it's only about the donors, not about getting it passed. They gave up on that after the last results." Trojan "Gage will have the votes he walks in the room with ... no more than that" |
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Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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25th May 2016, 07:23 AM | #56 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
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There is truth and there are lies. - President Joseph R. Biden, January 20th, 2021 |
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25th May 2016, 07:49 AM | #57 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Location: Dog House
Posts: 26,122
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lol, did anyone think it was science, a vote on human nature and the variables of a vote by AIA members. How many attending were eligible to vote, how many failed to show up.
Guessing the vote outcome... Is it possible Gage made sure his followers showed up to vote? I expected AIA members could see the fraud - I now assume based on my hope AIA members can't be that stupid - Richard Gage the Liar stacked the deck, got his delusional followers to vote. |
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"Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen" - Albert Einstein "... education as the means of developing our greatest abilities" - JFK |
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25th May 2016, 08:00 AM | #58 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,667
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beachy, I am sure you have at least some prima facie evidence that Gage stacked the voters?
Then you can probably explain how it is done? The AIA Business Meeting is an event where delegates vote: Each AIA Chapter (however they are organized, some regional, some local) gets a number of votes according to the number of members they represent; the Chapters send delegates to the Business Meeting. The delegates allot the Chapter's votes. It's up to the Chapters to decide who their delgates are, and how these delegated are authorized to vote. So if AE911Truth managed to stack the vote, the most plausible route would be to go to the Chapters and persuade, or majoritize, them into voting for woo. This then might be the route at which debunking would have to be directed. This would require orginazation. |
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Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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25th May 2016, 08:03 AM | #59 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,667
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I think we must face a sad reality: That well-organized and well-presented woo can persuade significant percentages of a casual public, even among academics of a somewhat relevant profession, in this day and age.
Isn't that what the JREF and the ISF are ultimately all about? Educating a public about the folly of woo? |
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Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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25th May 2016, 08:08 AM | #60 |
Devilish Dictionarian
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25th May 2016, 08:15 AM | #61 |
Penultimate Amazing
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"Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen" - Albert Einstein "... education as the means of developing our greatest abilities" - JFK |
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25th May 2016, 09:04 AM | #62 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,667
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__________________
Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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25th May 2016, 09:05 AM | #63 |
Penultimate Amazing
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"Political correctness is a doctrine,...,which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end." "I pointed out that his argument was wrong in every particular, but he rightfully took me to task for attacking only the weak points." Myriad http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=6853275#post6853275 |
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25th May 2016, 09:20 AM | #64 |
Graduate Poster
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Truthers only insist that there must have been some sinister purpose behind [WTC7] because they already think there's a sinister purpose behind everything. -Horatius |
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25th May 2016, 10:17 AM | #65 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Spain
Posts: 3,692
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I thought that exposing themselves for what they are instead of trying to backdoor the proposition, would go against them. I was wrong. I misestimated the capacity of people to accept woo. I admit that I may have been biased by some wishful thinking in my estimation.
I still accepted the "Chinese emperor fallacy" objection, though. And it proved right. |
25th May 2016, 10:24 AM | #66 |
Master Poster
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Posts: 2,046
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Out of interest, if AE911 truth do get in, what will actually happen ?
Will the AIA investigate the collapse of building 7 ? Will they read the NIST report ? Will they donate to Gage and watch YouTube ? What is the goal ? |
25th May 2016, 10:26 AM | #67 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,667
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Why are so many of us so biased without (always) correcting for that bias?
Speculation: We think that other rational people will come to the same conclusions that we do. But the problem is, that many of these AIA delegates employed their rational reasoning on severly incomplete information that's misrepresented, if not outright false, and they never took the time, or never had a chance, to find better information. They are not like us. I kind of think that next year, there should be an effort to spread better information to the leadership of AIA Chapters - about the real facts of 9/11, and about the resistance of Gage to correct his many errors and lies. A booklet, a website, something the accessibility of which is on par with AE's material. That was a good call - I learned something there, too! |
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Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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25th May 2016, 10:27 AM | #68 |
Potsing Whiled Runk
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Could be a faction within the AIA who just wants him to STFU and go away and if that means caving, then so be it.
IIRC, the only reason why he has a booth at all is because the AIA couldn't stop the walking pile of excrement from JAQing off on the public sidewalks in front of their events. Might be a similar mindset at work here. |
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25th May 2016, 10:38 AM | #69 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Appeasement has historically not always worked to the appeasers' full satisfaction.
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Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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25th May 2016, 11:52 AM | #70 |
Illuminator
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25th May 2016, 11:56 AM | #71 |
Graduate Poster
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Yep, and it would have been the most natural response in the world, human nature being what it is. But while it's true that AE911 did a little better than was predicted here, they did a lot worse than their followers thought they would. Look at the comments on the AE911 facebook page, there's a lot of baffled disillusionment from rank-and-file followers that the resolution didn't pass with flying colours; a kind of "we failed last time but then we tweaked it and tried harder but we still didn't win" kind of thing. For my part, I feel I demonstrated considerable foresight by not voting |
25th May 2016, 01:46 PM | #72 |
Graduate Poster
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Posts: 1,744
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That was my thinking too. This years resolution was a lot more up-front about the woo and to me it seemed desperate.
Obviously desperation works! Or maybe after the experience of last year the AE911T crew were just better prepared and organized this year. It may in fact be possible for them to learn from their own mistakes. |
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So I'm going to tell you what the facts are, and the facts are the facts, but then we know the truth. That always overcomes facts. |
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25th May 2016, 01:55 PM | #73 |
Penultimate Amazing
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. Skeptics were wrong, rather than 4%, AE911T garnered 11%. Still a far cry from 'winning' but AE911T did apply a liberal amount of polish on that result so it looks like a very shiny turd to their followers.
Thread title question has been answered. Why is this thread still going? |
25th May 2016, 04:00 PM | #74 |
Graduate Poster
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The key now is to see if this resounding victory pays dividends.
Does the new investigation begin? Hundreds of new professionals on the petition? Millions of dollars flowing in to fund the next fund raiser? |
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So I'm going to tell you what the facts are, and the facts are the facts, but then we know the truth. That always overcomes facts. |
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25th May 2016, 04:52 PM | #75 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,454
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It was a demonstration of how little architects really know about structural mechanics / structural engineering.
The architects oppose the amendment for the same reason that the public at large opposes it: they mostly trust professionals & disdain "Conspiracy Theorists". (And, no, the official story is not a "conspiracy theory", despite moronic claims to the contrary.) The architects opinions were stronger than the public at large, because they work closely with structural engineers, & now them to be reasonable, hard-headed, independent, ornery cusses, who would NEVER be intimidated by moronic politicians. NO amount of smooth talking or fancy packaging turns his crap into gold for structural or mechanical engineers. If Gage ever has the cojones to bring his crap to a convention of structural engineers, his acceptance level will go down, year after year, not up, as engineers become more aware of the issues. Although it's tough to go down from 0.01% acceptance... |
25th May 2016, 11:14 PM | #76 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Sure
Yeah, I noticed. They - espescially the vocal ones who comment - are of course biased the other way and err in the other direction. That shouldn't be satisfying solace to those of us who underestimated the persuasiveness of AE's presentation. I think we should strive to be realistic. |
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Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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25th May 2016, 11:15 PM | #77 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,667
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Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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25th May 2016, 11:17 PM | #78 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
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__________________
Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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25th May 2016, 11:25 PM | #79 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,667
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Surely you're jesting.
Plausible dividends may come in the form of additional fans, signatures and donations, now that they can point to a result with a respected professional organization that can, with some legitimacy, be construed as "momentum" or a "positive trend". This trend alone may be significant enough to drive itself some distance further. They'll be back next year with yet another booth and yet another resolution proposal, but that time with lots more confidence. If no one steps up to reveal the fraud to the delegates; as long as the opponents merely point to the very investigations that Gage actively derides, without addressing and rebutting their arguments, they will keep improving on the votes. No, Congress won't finance another investigation; but in the meantime, the poison that splits society and alienates friends and family keeps spreading. |
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Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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25th May 2016, 11:54 PM | #80 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,667
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After you, too, were overly optimistic on the architects, I think you should wisen up and reconsider your optimism about structural engineers. Last year, Gage DID go to a convention of structural engineers, and I see no indicartion he was thrown out. Some of these SEs were persuaded and signed the woo:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...6#post10906736 Almost 5 times that among civil engineers (and structural, too, I am sure). I know, still embarrassingly little. Just didn't like the wrong number. |
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Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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