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Old 5th September 2020, 04:49 PM   #41
newyorkguy
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From the Forbes article previously linked:
Quote:
The Dow Jones U.S. Coal Index tracks the coal industry subsector. When Trump was elected in November 2016 the index was around 45 and closed on Friday at 8.57, down approximately 80%. There have been numerous mine closures and bankruptcies during his time in office, with little positive outlook for the industry. Forbes
From trump's 1990 Playboy interview:
Quote:
I like the challenge and tell the story of the coal miner’s son. The coal miner gets black-lung disease, his son gets it, then his son. If I had been the son of a coal miner, I would have left the damn mines. But most people don’t have the imagination—or whatever—to leave their mine. They don’t have “it.” Playboy link
Says the man who went into his father's business, bankrolled by daddy. At least he's consistent; he's always been as phony as a twelve dollar bill.
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Old 5th September 2020, 06:18 PM   #42
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"...Most people don’t have the imagination—or whatever..."

You need imagination... and stuff.
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Old 5th September 2020, 07:10 PM   #43
Gord_in_Toronto
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
From the Forbes article previously linked:


From trump's 1990 Playboy interview:


Says the man who went into his father's business, bankrolled by daddy. At least he's consistent; he's always been as phony as a twelve dollar bill.
Linking to the actual Playboy interview at https://www.playboy.com/read/playboy...ald-trump-1990 provides an interesting read.

Sample (talking about Trump as President):

Question: And how would President Trump handle it?

Trump's answer: He would believe very strongly in extreme military strength. He wouldn’t trust anyone. He wouldn’t trust the Russians; he wouldn’t trust our allies; he’d have a huge military arsenal, perfect it, understand it. Part of the problem is that we’re defending some of the wealthiest countries in the world for nothing…. We’re being laughed at around the world, defending Japan—
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Old 5th September 2020, 11:54 PM   #44
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Donald Trump trusts no one because he knows no one can trust Donald Trump.

The only place I've ever seen more projection than in Donald Trump is in a multiplex movie theater..
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Old 6th September 2020, 12:49 AM   #45
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As was partially pointed out before, the problem that led to coal's decline wasn't some leftie politics, it was just that there's not all that much demand for it any more, and even less demand for people digging it out.

Even as a way to drive a turbine, it's not the most efficient. There's a reason why even countries which had lots of coal, like the UK and Germany, switched to oil for their navies after WW1 and even before that some boilers were using mixed fuel, with some oil being sprayed into the burner to drive the temperature up.

Essentially not only you need more of it, which would be less of a problem for a power plant than for a battleship, but because of that and other factors you have higher costs elsewhere. Such as logistics, bigger and more expensive boilers, etc. There's only so much the coal can cost before the TOTAL cost says you're better off using something else. Or at least before something else is competitive, which in the process drives demand down.

Short version: it's not leftist politics that's the problem. It's PHYSICS and ECONOMICS that's the bigger problem. Not that it will stop people from believing that magical thinking can trump physics, but in reality it won't.
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Old 6th September 2020, 12:48 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by HansMustermann View Post
As was partially pointed out before, the problem that led to coal's decline wasn't some leftie politics, it was just that there's not all that much demand for it any more, and even less demand for people digging it out.

Even as a way to drive a turbine, it's not the most efficient. There's a reason why even countries which had lots of coal, like the UK and Germany, switched to oil for their navies after WW1 and even before that some boilers were using mixed fuel, with some oil being sprayed into the burner to drive the temperature up.

Essentially not only you need more of it, which would be less of a problem for a power plant than for a battleship, but because of that and other factors you have higher costs elsewhere. Such as logistics, bigger and more expensive boilers, etc. There's only so much the coal can cost before the TOTAL cost says you're better off using something else. Or at least before something else is competitive, which in the process drives demand down.

Short version: it's not leftist politics that's the problem. It's PHYSICS and ECONOMICS that's the bigger problem. Not that it will stop people from believing that magical thinking can trump physics, but in reality it won't.
Four things killed coal jobs. Most importantly mechanization. We still produce more coal today than we did in 1923 when 883,000 coal miners were employed. Today there are 50,000 miners.

The second and third things that killed coal is Natural Gas and solar. We still produce a lot of coal. But it is down a whopping 30 percent in the last decade. And the trend is going to accelerate. First fracking and natural gas put the coffin lid over coal by offering a cheaper cleaner alternative and now solar is hammering the nails because it is now cheaper than both.

The fourth definitely was leftist politics that contributed to this. It was leftists that cared about the environment that offered solar homeowner credits. This led to jump starting the industry. It was leftist politics that increased funding into R and D. If you go back and listen to right wing talk radio in the 80s, 90s and the 00s you will hear them mock solar incessantly. Jimmy Carter installed solar on the roof of the White House, Reagan removed the panels almost immediately.

Democrats definitely helped kill the coal industry. But the coal industry killed 90 percent of the jobs all by themselves. I'm proud that we killed coal. It is better for the environment and It is better for the economy. It has easily led to more jobs.
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Old 6th September 2020, 02:51 PM   #47
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Now, to be a little fair, coal is high centralized in specific areas without other big, major industries.

It's not coal was ever that important on a national level, as noted even at its peak it never employed that many people, but for people in certain regions it was all they had.

"Jobs" and "Industries" aren't 100% synonymous.

Now none of this means we should be artificially propping an industry who's time has passed nor not does it forgive the fact that the Coal Belt never had a "hey maybe at some point digging rocks out of the ground might not be a viable industry should just be this thing we should maybe plan on" moment (and seems stubbornly against having one now).
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Old 6th September 2020, 04:00 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Now, to be a little fair, coal is high centralized in specific areas without other big, major industries.

It's not coal was ever that important on a national level, as noted even at its peak it never employed that many people, but for people in certain regions it was all they had.

"Jobs" and "Industries" aren't 100% synonymous.

Now none of this means we should be artificially propping an industry who's time has passed nor not does it forgive the fact that the Coal Belt never had a "hey maybe at some point digging rocks out of the ground might not be a viable industry should just be this thing we should maybe plan on" moment (and seems stubbornly against having one now).
Hillary tried to point this out. She wanted to invest in bringing other industries to places like West Virginia. But Trump just blamed the environmental regulations and promised he'd get rid of them and coal would return. This despite pretty much every energy analyst arguing it was going to continue to lose market share.

Well he got rid of the environmental regulations and production increased about two points and then it returned to losing market share. Nobody in the US is building coal powered turbines, they are only closing or converting those plants to Natural Gas. 100 since 2011. I'd be shocked if production of coal in 5 years is half of what it is today. It costs too much to mine.
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Old 6th September 2020, 04:40 PM   #49
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Back in 2016 I read an interview with a woman who grew up in a coal miner's town in West Virginia, in the 1990s. Her father was a miner. When she graduated high school she went to work for a coal company as an office worker. She married a miner. By then the industry was already facing challenges. The company she worked for was sold and she lost her job.

Here's where the story gets a little different. This woman decided to go back to school. When she graduated she got a job in the regional medical center. By then her husband was losing his mining job. The new company wanted to strip mine and her husband -- along with hundreds of other miners -- was out of work. She said she encouraged her husband to go back to school but at first he resisted. His attitude was, "I'm a coal miner. Anyway, what's the sense? You can't get anywhere in this world." She finally convinced him to give it a try. She was making good money and she supported them while her husband went to school. When her husband graduated they decided to move to one of West Virginia's cities. Easier for him to find work as an HVAC repairman and the regional medical center was starting to lay off workers. Plus environmental changes had altered the character of the area they lived in. She'd had it.

She said she grew up in the mining area, her family had lived there for generations and it was tough to move. But she said, "You know what?" The area had changed a lot. The new coal company had gotten permission to "take the top off" a mountain on their land, a fairly common strip mining technique. That really changed the topography. That kind of mining creates a lot of waste rock. She said when she drove the state highway into the town, the mountain was gone, replaced by huge piles of waste rock from the strip mining. This also created a lot of runoff. The streams where her father had taught her to fish no longer had fish in them. The lake where she used to swim was silted in and turning into marsh.

She joined with a local group to lobby for some changes. But her county was Republican-run and they would never oppose the big mining companies. When she attended local government meetings and suggested taking better care of the environment she was derided as wanting to "destroy the coal industry and put everybody out of work." But she said, everybody is ALREADY out of work.

Family members and friends she went to school with have mostly stayed put. The women work at the Walmart or drive school buses. The men work when they can. She said it is terrible to see the changes that are happening. She was so mad at the Republican politicians that she decided to volunteer for the Democratic Party. She was working for Hillary Clinton's election when she was interviewed, the interview I read (and quoted and linked here).
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Old 6th September 2020, 05:11 PM   #50
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I also wonder if another factor is at work here.

I've long argued that nobody, not even his most earnest and honest supporters, really truly believed that Trump was going to bring back all those dead factory jobs and manufacturing job and rust belt jobs. He wasn't elected to do that and at no point was that not really obvious. He was elected to punish and troll people who either A) the people had convinced where to blame or B) just anyone who was still succeeding.

Coal might be the same thing. Nobody might really be expecting it to come back. They just want Trump to troll and punish everyone who's lifestyle wasn't dependent on one single industry that suddenly (suddenly if you weren't paying attention to trends and basic reality) got pulled out from under you.

Again we have got to stop being surprised and confused by how much support Trump is getting for not making things better.
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Old 6th September 2020, 05:48 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I also wonder if another factor is at work here.

I've long argued that nobody, not even his most earnest and honest supporters, really truly believed that Trump was going to bring back all those dead factory jobs and manufacturing job and rust belt jobs. He wasn't elected to do that and at no point was that not really obvious. He was elected to punish and troll people who either A) the people had convinced where to blame or B) just anyone who was still succeeding.

Coal might be the same thing. Nobody might really be expecting it to come back. They just want Trump to troll and punish everyone who's lifestyle wasn't dependent on one single industry that suddenly (suddenly if you weren't paying attention to trends and basic reality) got pulled out from under you.

Again we have got to stop being surprised and confused by how much support Trump is getting for not making things better.
I'm not surprised. People believe in fairy tales. Trump told them a fairy tale. The same one they had been fed for generations. This was the only life these people knew. They clung to it and still are clinging to it. Hillary told them the facts of life. The only constant ii life is change. Adapt or die.

Change is hard for people to accept. Trump never saved their jobs nor can he prevent further losses. But he can get their electoral college votes.
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Old 6th September 2020, 11:56 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Well he got rid of the environmental regulations and production increased about two points and then it returned to losing market share. Nobody in the US is building coal powered turbines, they are only closing or converting those plants to Natural Gas. 100 since 2011. I'd be shocked if production of coal in 5 years is half of what it is today. It costs too much to mine.
Well, that's what I meant when I said it's not (mainly) librul politics, but physics and economics that's the problem. If it were only some plot to push solar panels, you'd see the problem being just those. Or mostly those. But you see them losing market share to gas turbines.
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Old 7th September 2020, 07:07 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by HansMustermann View Post
Well, that's what I meant when I said it's not (mainly) librul politics, but physics and economics that's the problem. If it were only some plot to push solar panels, you'd see the problem being just those. Or mostly those. But you see them losing market share to gas turbines.
It's like anything else. It comes down to price which is related to cost. That it is environmentally better than coal is nice, but now that it is economically better coal is doomed.

The price of energy generated by solar in 1975 was 400 times the price it is today and it was 12 times today's price in 2008. And it expects further efficiency gains. Two years ago, I bought a 275 watt panel for my RV for $175. I just found 425 watt panels for $150.

Coal is fast becoming a buggy whip.
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