ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old 6th September 2020, 11:56 AM   #1
JoeMorgue
Self Employed
Remittance Man
 
JoeMorgue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 27,157
2020 Congressional Election

General purpose thread for news, discussion, debate, predictions, questions etc.
____________________________________

Background info:

The United States Congress is the head of the Legislative Branch. It consists of two houses:

- The Senate. 100 seats. Each state, regardless of population, gets to elect two Senators each.

- The House of Representatives. 435 seats. States get a number of Representatives ranging from 1 to 53 depending on population.

//These number do not account for non-voting members elected by American territories such as Puerto Rico//

All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 seats in the United States Senate are up for grabs in November.

Currently the Democrats hold a majority in the House (232 to the Republicans 198, with one Libertarian and 4 vacant) while the Republicans hold a majority in the Senate (53 to the Democrats 45, with 2 Independents who generally caucus and vote with the Democrats giving them a de-facto 47)

Current political polling suggests a tight race for the Senate, with a 50-50 split not being one of the less likely outcomes, with the Democrats retaining a majority in the house.

Either party achieving a super-majority in either of the Houses looks extremely unlikely.
__________________
- I don't know how to convince you that facts exist
- I don't know how to convince you that you should care about other people

Last edited by JoeMorgue; 6th September 2020 at 12:06 PM.
JoeMorgue is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th September 2020, 12:05 PM   #2
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 29,811
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th September 2020, 01:16 PM   #3
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
 
Craig4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Alexandria, VA Home to the Deep State.
Posts: 21,103
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.
The lesson with gerrymandering is that it doesn't work for very long. The Democrats took the House by winning those gerrymandered districts. Not all states have voter suppression issues. Dems control the voting mechanisms in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Gerrymandering doesn't matter at all in the Senate or presidential races. And really, no one is talking about the Republicans taking back the House. Trump would need to be both leading and by a wide margin for that to happen.
__________________
A MAGA hat = a Swastika arm band. A vote for Trump is a vote for treason.
Craig4 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th September 2020, 01:27 PM   #4
Safe-Keeper
Philosopher
 
Safe-Keeper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Norway
Posts: 9,769
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.
Trump only barely won in 2016, by a total of only, what was it, 14 000 or 40 000 votes across several states he needed to win? Of course more of the votes this year will be by mail, and Trump has had four years in which to sabotage things, but this election-rigging can only get him so far.
__________________
"He's like a drunk being given a sobriety test by the police after being pulled over. Just as a drunk can't walk a straight line, Trump can't think in a straight line. He's all over the place."--Stacyhs
"If you are still hung up on that whole words-have-meaning thing, then 2020 is going to be a long year for you." --Ladewig
Safe-Keeper is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th September 2020, 04:30 PM   #5
Lurch
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Ottawa
Posts: 1,482
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.
With this grim forecast as a fiducial, I'm pretty sure there'll be *something* for liberals to cheer. Jeez, if it turned out that bad, there'd be insufficient crisis councillors in the nation.
Lurch is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th September 2020, 06:18 AM   #6
SuburbanTurkey
Philosopher
 
SuburbanTurkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 6,069
This was posted elsewhere, but it should be noted that Nancy Pelosi and other DP heavyweights endorsed Joe Kennedy III in a primary challenge for progressive Ed Markey's incumbent Senate seat. For all the talk of party unity and the need to defeat Trump, money and political attention was squandered in order to try to challenge a relatively progressive Democratic Senator with a centrist candidate.

Kennedy lost. I guess that last name doesn't have the same cache it used to. Back to Hyannis Joe.
__________________
Gobble gobble
SuburbanTurkey is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th September 2020, 03:42 PM   #7
Sherkeu
Graduate Poster
 
Sherkeu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Disneyland
Posts: 1,778
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
This was posted elsewhere, but it should be noted that Nancy Pelosi and other DP heavyweights endorsed Joe Kennedy III in a primary challenge for progressive Ed Markey's incumbent Senate seat. For all the talk of party unity and the need to defeat Trump, money and political attention was squandered in order to try to challenge a relatively progressive Democratic Senator with a centrist candidate.

Kennedy lost. I guess that last name doesn't have the same cache it used to. Back to Hyannis Joe.
Isn't this the same thing they did with Biden vs Bernie/Warren/et al?
Except Biden won out for that one.
But I suppose that is national and perhaps things that are national are more moderate than individual local races.
Sherkeu is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th September 2020, 01:58 PM   #8
Firestone
Proud Award Award recipient
 
Firestone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Belgium
Posts: 2,256
Lindsey Graham tweets:

"It’s been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/...637922818?s=19
__________________
Vote Early. Vote Once. 2016 versus 2020
The method of science is tried and true. It is not perfect, it's just the best we have. And to abandon it, with its skeptical protocols is the pathway to a dark age. -- Carl Sagan
Firestone is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th September 2020, 02:42 PM   #9
varwoche
Penultimate Amazing
 
varwoche's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Puget Sound
Posts: 14,959
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.
I would bet everything I own against this, even knowing your track record.

This is so silly that I'm demoting you from prescient to broken clock.
__________________
To survive election season on a skeptics forum, one must understand Hymie-the-Robot.
My authority is total - Trump
varwoche is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th September 2020, 05:31 AM   #10
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
 
Craig4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Alexandria, VA Home to the Deep State.
Posts: 21,103
Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Lindsey Graham tweets:

"Itís been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/...637922818?s=19
This seems like a perilous road to go down for a piece of Trumptrash like Graham.
__________________
A MAGA hat = a Swastika arm band. A vote for Trump is a vote for treason.
Craig4 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th September 2020, 07:27 AM   #11
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 46,645
Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Lindsey Graham tweets:

"Itís been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/...637922818?s=19
Ah yes: The eleven years of Lindsey Graham's tax returns that we've all been so urgently awaiting, ever since he launched his political career. 28 years ago. Hopefully Harrison Jaime DGAF about Graham's twitter call-outs.
theprestige is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th September 2020, 06:01 PM   #12
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
 
Craig4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Alexandria, VA Home to the Deep State.
Posts: 21,103
Not that I care about the Trumptrash at the rally in Nevada tonight. However, we know the virus passes from animals to people and the attendees could pass the virus to real people who have value.
__________________
A MAGA hat = a Swastika arm band. A vote for Trump is a vote for treason.
Craig4 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th September 2020, 06:37 PM   #13
alfaniner
Penultimate Amazing
 
alfaniner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 23,336
Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Not that I care about the Trumptrash at the rally in Nevada tonight. However, we know the virus passes from animals to people and the attendees could pass the virus to real people who have value.
Not to mention, to real animals that have value!
__________________
Science is self-correcting.
Woo is self-contradicting.
alfaniner is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th September 2020, 07:23 PM   #14
Ladewig
I lost an avatar bet.
 
Ladewig's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 27,694
Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Lindsey Graham tweets:

"Itís been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/...637922818?s=19
Please, please let Trump repost this without reading the whole thing.
__________________
I lost an avatar bet to Doghouse Reilly.
Ladewig is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 14th September 2020, 02:07 AM   #15
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 29,811
Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
I would bet everything I own against this, even knowing your track record.

This is so silly that I'm demoting you from prescient to broken clock.
....I really, really hope you are right.

I really, really fear you are not.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th September 2020, 01:07 PM   #16
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 16,036
Some recent polling numbers for the U.S. senate races:

(Via: Politico)

- Susan "He's learned his Lesson" Collins is WAY down in the Maine senate race. (She is behind Sarah Gideon by 54-42.) I thought the Democrats had a good shot at taking this seat, but a margin like that is more than I was expecting. Hopefully Collins has learned her lesson.

- Lady Lindsey is currently tied with his opponent (Harrison) in South Carolina. (Strangely enough, Harrison actually rates better who is seen as more favorable. Sadly with voter suppression, I don't have much hope of the Democrats winning S.C.

- Sadly, Moscow Mitch is leading in Kentucky. But being the backwards state that it is, its not surprising that Kentucky is sticking with the turtle. (I have sometimes wondered if it would be more fitting to see Moscow Mitch lose, or see him win but have the GOP lose the senate so he loses his power.)
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th September 2020, 05:46 AM   #17
Monza
Alta Viro
 
Monza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,116
Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Lindsey Graham tweets:

"Itís been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/...637922818?s=19

Harrison released his returns this week and tweeted in reply, "Done. Now do President Trump."
Monza is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th September 2020, 06:01 AM   #18
Firestone
Proud Award Award recipient
 
Firestone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Belgium
Posts: 2,256
Originally Posted by Monza View Post
Harrison released his returns this week and tweeted in reply, "Done. Now do President Trump."
Of course.

Own goal by Graham, as apparently South Carolina asked the candidates to release their tax returns.
Quote:
The State asked both campaigns to release their candidateís tax returns.

https://www.thestate.com/news/politi...245737230.html
__________________
Vote Early. Vote Once. 2016 versus 2020
The method of science is tried and true. It is not perfect, it's just the best we have. And to abandon it, with its skeptical protocols is the pathway to a dark age. -- Carl Sagan
Firestone is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th September 2020, 06:03 AM   #19
JoeMorgue
Self Employed
Remittance Man
 
JoeMorgue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 27,157
Is this just becoming some weird affect now?

Raise your hand if anyone's tax return ever caused you to vote or not vote for them.
__________________
- I don't know how to convince you that facts exist
- I don't know how to convince you that you should care about other people
JoeMorgue is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th September 2020, 05:00 AM   #20
Firestone
Proud Award Award recipient
 
Firestone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Belgium
Posts: 2,256
538's Senate forecast is live.

The gist: Democrats *probably* need 4 or 5 pickups, depending on the presidency, since Doug Jones is an underdog in AL-Sen. A lot of these races are against incumbents in red states. Still, Democrats have so many opportunities (~12!) that they're slight favorites to do it.
(Nate Silver on Twitter)
__________________
Vote Early. Vote Once. 2016 versus 2020
The method of science is tried and true. It is not perfect, it's just the best we have. And to abandon it, with its skeptical protocols is the pathway to a dark age. -- Carl Sagan
Firestone is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Yesterday, 08:36 PM   #21
JoeMorgue
Self Employed
Remittance Man
 
JoeMorgue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 27,157
The Minnesota 2nd District Congressional Race is being delayed until next year after a 3rd party candidate has died.

Adam Weeks, 38, was a farmer running under the Legal Marijuana Now Party against freshman Democratic Rep. Angie Craig. Minnesota has a state law requiring a delay of election of a candidate dies with 79 days of the election.

Minnesota's 2nd District is considered a tight race between Craig and Republican challenger Tyler Kistner.
__________________
- I don't know how to convince you that facts exist
- I don't know how to convince you that you should care about other people
JoeMorgue is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 02:28 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.