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View Poll Results: Pick one:
Betelgeuse Supernova in our lifetime, Jesus not. 4 9.52%
Jesus returns in our lifetime, Betelgeuse stays put. 2 4.76%
Betelgeuse Supernova first, no Second Coming 31 73.81%
Second coming first, Betelgeuse is immortal. 1 2.38%
Planet X give birth to superman during Supernova. 4 9.52%
Voters: 42. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 26th December 2019, 02:33 PM   #1
RecoveringYuppy
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Which is first: Betelgeuse Supernova or Second Coming

Which is more likely to happen in our lifetime, Betelgeuse goes supernova or Jesus returns.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/26/world...rnd/index.html
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Old 26th December 2019, 04:16 PM   #2
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I would love to see Betelgeuse supernova. It would be one of the highlights of my life. But at 66 time is running out.

Second coming will never happen because a prerequisite would be a first coming, which also will never happen.
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Old 26th December 2019, 04:24 PM   #3
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Betelgeuse supernova?

It was my favorite large star as a child. please don't.
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Old 26th December 2019, 04:45 PM   #4
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Jesus is supposed to return with all the angels in heaven as his entourage; Betelgeuse is suddenly appearing a lot dimmer.... join the dots people!!
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Old 26th December 2019, 04:52 PM   #5
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Despite the not so serious poll I was also hoping for some help on the actual facts here, so let me quote a part of the article that isn't quite clear.

Quote:
He told CNN that Betelgeuse (pronounced: BAY-tel juice) been declining in brightness sharply since October, and was now about 2.5 times fainter than usual. Once the ninth brightest star in the sky, Betelgeuse has fallen now to about the 23rd brightest.
Anyone know what "2.5 times fainter" means and if that really happened in the space of a couple months. I suspect the two sentences are referring to different time frames and since the second is a comparison to other stars it doesn't really contribute to what has actually happened to this particular star (see ETA below).

All the other stars that I can find that have exhibited major changes on short time frames are red dwarfs so totally different situation. Anyone know of any more relevant comparisons?

ETA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse This cites Betelgeuse as the 9th brightest star so maybe that second sentence is referring to the same time frame.

Last edited by RecoveringYuppy; 26th December 2019 at 04:54 PM.
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Old 26th December 2019, 05:17 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
I would love to see Betelgeuse supernova. It would be one of the highlights of my life. But at 66 time is running out.

Second coming will never happen because a prerequisite would be a first coming, which also will never happen.
Same here. Would be a highlight of my life as well.
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Old 26th December 2019, 05:18 PM   #7
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Hate to spoil the poll, but the second coming has been and gone. You lot just missed it. This fact is in the bible.

Betelgeuse will explode soon. But soon is any time in the next 100,000 years
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Old 26th December 2019, 05:26 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by foophil View Post
Same here. Would be a highlight of my life as well.
I often look up there while I am walking my dog on clear winter nights and think “why not now?”. But the universe does not seem to concern itself with my thoughts.
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Old 26th December 2019, 05:34 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Despite the not so serious poll I was also hoping for some help on the actual facts here, so let me quote a part of the article that isn't quite clear.

Anyone know what "2.5 times fainter" means and if that really happened in the space of a couple months. I suspect the two sentences are referring to different time frames and since the second is a comparison to other stars it doesn't really contribute to what has actually happened to this particular star (see ETA below).

All the other stars that I can find that have exhibited major changes on short time frames are red dwarfs so totally different situation. Anyone know of any more relevant comparisons?

ETA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse This cites Betelgeuse as the 9th brightest star so maybe that second sentence is referring to the same time frame.
If I understand correctly Betelgeause’s max brightness is magnitude +0.5, so 2.5 x 0.5 would indicate it dimming to mag +1.25. This does seem to be in line with what current science publications (Nat Geo etc.) are saying.
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Old 26th December 2019, 05:41 PM   #10
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I voted for second coming, no supernova.
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Old 26th December 2019, 05:42 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
If I understand correctly Betelgeause’s max brightness is magnitude +0.5, so 2.5 x 0.5 would indicate it dimming to mag +1.25. This does seem to be in line with what current science publications (Nat Geo etc.) are saying.
Nope, the magnitude scale is logarithmic. Becoming 2.5x dimmer is equivalent to adding 1 on the magnitude scale.
Betelgeuse has gone from a magnitude of +0.5 to +1.5.
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Old 26th December 2019, 05:43 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
Nope, the magnitude scale is logarithmic. Becoming 2.5x dimmer is equivalent to adding 1 on the magnitude scale.
Betelgeuse has gone from a magnitude of +0.5 to +1.5.
Thanks. I obviously did not understand correctly . The correction is appreciated.
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Old 26th December 2019, 05:59 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Anyone know what "2.5 times fainter" means and if that really happened in the space of a couple months.
According to this, that would correspond to a change of 1 point on the apparent magnitude scale used to measure a star's brightness:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apparent_magnitude

Quote:
The magnitude scale is reverse logarithmic such that having a magnitude 5 higher than another object's means that it is 100 times dimmer. Consequently, a difference of 1.0 in magnitude corresponds to a brightness ratio of 5√100 or about 2.512. The brighter an object is, the lower its magnitude. For example, a star of magnitude 2.0 is 2.512 times brighter than a star of magnitude 3.0, or 100 times brighter than one of magnitude 7.0. The brightest astronomical objects have negative apparent magnitudes: for example, Venus at −4.2 or Sirius at −1.46. The faintest naked-eye stars visible on the darkest night have apparent magnitudes of about +6.5. The apparent magnitudes of known objects range from the Sun at −26.7 to objects in deep Hubble Space Telescope images of around magnitude +30.[1]
But Betelgeuse is a variable star whose apparent magnitude varies in a relatively wide range of between +0.0 and +1.3, also per Wikipedia.
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Old 26th December 2019, 06:04 PM   #14
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Just say its name three times.
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Old 26th December 2019, 06:09 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
ETA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse This cites Betelgeuse as the 9th brightest star so maybe that second sentence is referring to the same time frame.
There's a nice photograph of the star in that article.


Quote:
This orange blob shows the star Betelgeuse, as seen by the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). This is the first time that ALMA has ever observed the surface of a star and this first attempt has resulted in the highest-resolution image of Betelgeuse available.
Appears to not be circular, but I don't know if that's an imaging artifact or if its shape really is lumpy like that.
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Old 26th December 2019, 06:38 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
There's a nice photograph of the star in that article.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ed_by_ALMA.jpg


Appears to not be circular, but I don't know if that's an imaging artifact or if its shape really is lumpy like that.
It actually does have that large bulge.
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Old 26th December 2019, 07:20 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Despite the not so serious poll I was also hoping for some help on the actual facts here, so let me quote a part of the article that isn't quite clear.

Anyone know what "2.5 times fainter" means and if that really happened in the space of a couple months. I suspect the two sentences are referring to different time frames and since the second is a comparison to other stars it doesn't really contribute to what has actually happened to this particular star (see ETA below).

All the other stars that I can find that have exhibited major changes on short time frames are red dwarfs so totally different situation. Anyone know of any more relevant comparisons?

ETA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse This cites Betelgeuse as the 9th brightest star so maybe that second sentence is referring to the same time frame.
Do we just have to say 'Bayteljuice' three times and it blows?
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Old 26th December 2019, 07:41 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Do we just have to say 'Bayteljuice' three times and it blows?
Tried that. It doesn’t work.

Cloudy on the walk tonight so I couldn’t tell if it was still with us.
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Old 26th December 2019, 08:26 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Do we just have to say 'Bayteljuice' three times and it blows?
Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Tried that. It doesn’t work.

Cloudy on the walk tonight so I couldn’t tell if it was still with us.
Sure it worked. You're just forgetting that it's 700 light years away.
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Old 26th December 2019, 09:20 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Sure it worked. You're just forgetting that it's 700 light years away.
Oh jeez! You are right! I should have done that 700 years ago so I could see it during my (current ) lifetime.
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Old 27th December 2019, 07:31 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Oh jeez! You are right! I should have done that 700 years ago so I could see it during my (current ) lifetime.
Sorry, no. 1400 years.

It's a round trip for the information, remember?
On the other hand. Did your shout it real loud? The tendency is to shout real loud, because of the vast distance involved.
Unfortunately in Space, no one, not even Betelgeuse, can hear you scream.

Whispering, is where it's at.

So, for Betelgeuse, to go supernova between now and say 10 years from now, would mean, that somebody in AD 620(ish) would have had to whisper the name Betelgeuse three times.

It's possible of course. But not so likely.
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Old 27th December 2019, 07:42 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Tried that. It doesn’t work.

Cloudy on the walk tonight so I couldn’t tell if it was still with us.
Based on an article I read, it would be the brightest light in the night sky, outshining the full moon. Unless they were very thick clouds, you would know.

They didn't say how big it would appear, though. A very bright point source? I would suppose, at 700 light-years away.

The article also said there would be no life threatening effects beyond 300 light years. That's good....if the models are right.
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Old 27th December 2019, 09:04 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
They didn't say how big it would appear, though. A very bright point source? I would suppose, at 700 light-years away.

It would presumably be bigger than a point source because Betelgeuse right now is larger than a point source. It was actually the first star other than the sun to have it's angular diameter measured sometime early last century. It shows the third largest angular diameter of any star with number one being the sun.
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Old 27th December 2019, 10:03 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
It would presumably be bigger than a point source because Betelgeuse right now is larger than a point source. It was actually the first star other than the sun to have it's angular diameter measured sometime early last century. It shows the third largest angular diameter of any star with number one being the sun.
If it went supernova, would its apparent diameter change to the naked eye? Would we see a disk instead of a dot?
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Old 27th December 2019, 10:25 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
If it went supernova, would its apparent diameter change to the naked eye? Would we see a disk instead of a dot?
I don't think it would have any more naked eye real disk like appearance after a supernova. I think any disk like appearance after supernova would be an atmospheric effect or artifact of how human eyes see, not a real perception of it's angular diameter.


Do the planets appear disk like to a naked eye? Or is our only perception of their disk the lack of "twinkle"?

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Old 27th December 2019, 02:41 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
If I understand correctly Betelgeause’s max brightness is magnitude +0.5, so 2.5 x 0.5 would indicate it dimming to mag +1.25. This does seem to be in line with what current science publications (Nat Geo etc.) are saying.
If you looked at a star one one night and then looked at it the next night and it was 0.75 mag dimmer, this is not something the average observer is likely to notice.

However, if you saw two stars side by side, one of which is is 0.75 mag dimmer than the other, you will be able to see the difference.

Here's an example for people to try



Scorpius is a summer constellation for the northern hemisphere (winter for us here in the south), and is one of the most easily identified. I have written in the magnitudes of the stars in the "tail" and "sting"...those magnitude differences are easy to see for anyone with reasonable eyesight.
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Old 27th December 2019, 02:48 PM   #27
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I have seen attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion.. Wait, that explosion was Betelgeuse...

I was surprised no one quoted the movie upthread- So I had todo it.

Although it would one of the most memorable events in my life to see a supernova I have to think there might be inhabited planets close enough to Betelgeuse to be wiped of life when it “”goes.”

Arthur C Clarke’s “The Star.”

Last edited by Giordano; 27th December 2019 at 03:45 PM. Reason: For clarity
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Old 27th December 2019, 02:52 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
I have seen attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion.. Wait, that was Betelgeuse...

I was surprised no one quoted the movie upthread- So I had todo it.

Although it would one of the most memorable events in my life to see a supernova I have to think there might be inhabited planets close enough to Betelgeuse to be wiped of life when it “”goes.”

Arthur C Clarke’s “The Star.”
No worries. It’s all part of god’s plan
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Old 27th December 2019, 04:14 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
Although it would one of the most memorable events in my life to see a supernova
Well I was fortunate enough to have seen one in 1987 (SN1987a, which reached a peak apparent magnitude of around +3) and even took part in obtaining parts of the light curve using a photoelectric photometer attached to the business end of the Canterbury Astronomical Society's 14½ Cassegrain telescope.

Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
I have to think there might be inhabited planets close enough to Betelgeuse to be wiped of life when it “”goes.”
Very unlikely.

Belegeuse a red supergiant, its diameter is almost as large as the orbit of Jupiter. It is also less than ten million years old, nowhere near old enough for life to have begun there. Any planets round Betelgeuse would likely be targets in a cosmic shooting gallery, still getting regularly bombarded with the leftover debris of planet formation.
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Old 27th December 2019, 04:20 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
If it went supernova, would its apparent diameter change to the naked eye? Would we see a disk instead of a dot?
It would be several times wider as the gases given off would be visible. How noticeable this would be I have no idea. Should be obvious though a small telescope though.
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Old 27th December 2019, 04:24 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
<snip>

Very unlikely.

Belegeuse a red supergiant, its diameter is almost as large as the orbit of Jupiter. It is also less than ten million years old, nowhere near old enough for life to have begun there. Any planets round Betelgeuse would likely be targets in a cosmic shooting gallery, still getting regularly bombarded with the leftover debris of planet formation.
There is unlikely to be anything alive (deep sea vents might be the only possible exception) in orbit around the star. However there might be something alive in a star a few light years away. The radiation from Betelgeuse might harm these life forms.
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Old 27th December 2019, 04:49 PM   #32
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Interesting how this thread is all about Betelgeuse. Very little interest in the second coming.
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Old 27th December 2019, 05:05 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Well I was fortunate enough to have seen one in 1987 (SN1987a, which reached a peak apparent magnitude of around +3) and even took part in obtaining parts of the light curve using a photoelectric photometer attached to the business end of the Canterbury Astronomical Society's 14½ Cassegrain telescope.



Very unlikely.

Belegeuse a red supergiant, its diameter is almost as large as the orbit of Jupiter. It is also less than ten million years old, nowhere near old enough for life to have begun there. Any planets round Betelgeuse would likely be targets in a cosmic shooting gallery, still getting regularly bombarded with the leftover debris of planet formation.
I was thinking of planets around nearby stars. I realize Betelgeuse itself would be an awkward star to center an inhabited solar system.
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Old 27th December 2019, 05:06 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
There is unlikely to be anything alive (deep sea vents might be the only possible exception) in orbit around the star. However there might be something alive in a star a few light years away. The radiation from Betelgeuse might harm these life forms.
Betelgeuse is 700 ly away from us, so we're probably safe, but I wonder what would happen if there's another sun-like star with life that's just 10 ly or 5 ly distant from it?
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Old 27th December 2019, 06:45 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Betelgeuse is 700 ly away from us, so we're probably safe, but I wonder what would happen if there's another sun-like star with life that's just 10 ly or 5 ly distant from it?
Agreed. It might be the Second Coming for these life forms.
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Old 27th December 2019, 06:48 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Interesting how this thread is all about Betelgeuse. Very little interest in the second coming.
At my age, once is enough.
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Old 27th December 2019, 06:57 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Betelgeuse is 700 ly away from us, so we're probably safe, but I wonder what would happen if there's another sun-like star with life that's just 10 ly or 5 ly distant from it?
I imagine there's two of them in the pub and one's saying "How would you react if I said I'm not from Betelgeuse after all, but a small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Sol?"
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Old 27th December 2019, 07:21 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
I imagine there's two of them in the pub and one's saying "How would you react if I said I'm not from Betelgeuse after all, but a small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Sol?"
"How much further have you escalated since moving from harmless to mostly harmless?"
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Old 27th December 2019, 07:24 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
I imagine there's two of them in the pub and one's saying "How would you react if I said I'm not from Betelgeuse after all, but a small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Sol?"
Not Guildford by any chance?
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Old 28th December 2019, 04:22 PM   #40
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I have it on good authority that Betelgeuse will evolve into a planet and will be supplanted by another star.
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