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Old Today, 02:15 AM   #2321
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You wouldn't expect R to alter just by the passage of time.
Actually, you would.

1. Weather. More sunlight means more UV light to destroy viral particles means more difficult transmission, which translates into a lower R0. I'm not sure if this matters much to UK, but I'm sure there's more sunlight in the summer months.

2. Aquired immunity. The more people that have antibodies against the virus, the harder it is for virus to spread. We don't know how long the immunity lasts and we don't know the titer of antibodies needed to fight against the disease, but fact is people who have antibodies against the virus are at least less at risk than those who do not.

3. Infectious dose. There is a strong correlation between the severity of disease and how contageous it is on one side and between the number of viral particles you're exposed to on the other side. If you manage to reduce the number of viral particles in the air - whether by quarantene, stay at home orders, face masks or any other means - there will be fewer severely ill patiens who will shed significant amount of viral particles. This will mean fewer infected and reduce the R0.

Change in behavior is, of course, the quickest and most effective of them all. If R0 is staying put for a significant amount of time (several weeks) that implies the adherence to social distancing is slowly eroding too.

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Old Today, 02:19 AM   #2322
The Don
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Todays papers headlining with end of lockdown. Football is starting, NT is opening parks and gardens, Pubs opening, BBQs allowed, families reunited, "Happy Monday"

It's all over folks, we survived!
Yay !

Our wonderful government has steered us successfully through the Coronavirus pandemic.

Any subsequent waves of infection are the fault of the underclasses who have clearly failed to be sufficiently alert.
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Old Today, 06:13 AM   #2323
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Well, that's my summer holiday plans well and truly scuttled.

The Danish government has announced that from June 15th, the borders will reopen to tourists from Germany, Norway, and Iceland, and likewise Danish tourists will be able to travel to those countries, as long as they stay away from the major cities. It is also suggested that those travelling subject themselves to a two week quarantine on their return, but it's not made mandatory. Dialogue with the Swedish authorities are ongoing.

Tourists will be permitted to visit Copenhagen, but overnight stays there won't be permitted.
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Old Today, 06:34 AM   #2324
Aber
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It does and having the R-number in the community being "likely to be below 1" for Wales as a whole is hardly reassuring when other countries have a much firmer grip on R and it's very much lower.

Regarding the current number of cases - who knows ?
Given we have estimates for infectious period, and % with symptoms, then you can backcalculate, even if you have to use wide error bars.

The important question is what proportion of cases are within care homes and hospitals, as these cases should be far easier to track. Unfortunately that analysis is not being made public, and will have a big impact on the R-number in the community. "Likely to be below 1" covers 0.1 as well as 0.9.

My suspicion is that retrospectively we will find out that the outbreak in Wales was initially driven by hospital based transmission (certainly around me from the local press), and then it spread into care homes.
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Old Today, 06:36 AM   #2325
Aber
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Doubly astonishing given that Cummings' wife is the commissioning editor. So either the magazine commissioned that without her knowledge, or Cummings thinks that going on the attack against Johnson is a strategic advantage of some kind.
Or that columnists are free to write what they believe.
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Old Today, 07:34 AM   #2326
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She believed she was in London when she was in Durham?
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Old Today, 07:41 AM   #2327
Squeegee Beckenheim
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Or that columnists are free to write what they believe.
I would say that that's covered in the former. Unless your assertion is that she commissioned the article or had knowledge of it being commissioned and thought "well, this will likely damage my husband, but I'll let it happen because that's the fair thing to do", which I have to concede is possible, but seems unlikely to me.
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Old Today, 08:17 AM   #2328
shuttlt
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I would say that that's covered in the former. Unless your assertion is that she commissioned the article or had knowledge of it being commissioned and thought "well, this will likely damage my husband, but I'll let it happen because that's the fair thing to do", which I have to concede is possible, but seems unlikely to me.
Isn't it possible blocking the article would be a bigger / worse story than publishing it?
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Old Today, 08:20 AM   #2329
The Don
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
She believed she was in London when she was in Durham?
Maybe her eyesight wasn't so good either
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Old Today, 08:25 AM   #2330
P.J. Denyer
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Or that columnists are free to write what they believe.
I'll assume the smiley means you are familiar with the British press!
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Old Today, 08:31 AM   #2331
The Don
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Some clue as to why the England and Wales' infection and death numbers are depressingly high:

Quote:
Police in England and Wales have issued nearly 17,000 fines for alleged breaches of coronavirus lockdown rules.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52852498

Interestingly:

Quote:
The data, from between 12 and 25 May, shows a significant reduction in the number of people fined since measures were eased in England two weeks ago
Whether that represents increased compliance or reduced enforcement is a good question IMO.

Quote:
Among the main reasons for fines, the NPCC listed driving with non-household members, house parties, large gatherings and camping.

The data shows fines were more likely to be issued at weekends, with the NPCC highlighting the recent bank holidays and periods of warmer weather.
With England relaxing the lockdown restrictions further, fines will drop again IMO. Then again, if you made shoplifting legal, there would be fewer people fined for that as well .
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Old Today, 08:36 AM   #2332
Squeegee Beckenheim
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Isn't it possible blocking the article would be a bigger / worse story than publishing it?
Possibly, but it's not like papers and magazines don't kill stories all the time.
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Old Today, 08:37 AM   #2333
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Restrictions are being lifted even though the threat level hasn't changed.

Quote:
Lockdown restrictions are being lifted in England before experts are ready to cut the threat level from coronavirus from “high”, No 10 has admitted.

Boris Johnson had been expected to lower the alert level from 4 to 3 when he gave the go-ahead for groups of 6 to mix in gardens and parks, but failed to mention it.

Now his spokesman has conceded the level remains at 4 – where transmission of the virus is said to be “high” – while arguing it is “coming down from 4 to 3”.
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Old Today, 08:38 AM   #2334
Squeegee Beckenheim
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Whether that represents increased compliance or reduced enforcement is a good question IMO.
Judging by my local park/Lidl, I'd say it's due to reduced enforcement. If I didn't know better, I wouldn't even know there was a lockdown, based on the number of picnickers, sunbathers, etc.
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Old Today, 09:26 AM   #2335
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They can't tell us how many people have tested again ... is that because they don't know (how is that possible when they knew before) ... Or is it because it's below 100,000 and they promised it would be that or higher every day?
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Old Today, 09:27 AM   #2336
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"The UK has the second highest rate of excess deaths from the coronavirus pandemic in the world. In the WORLD. It’s a funny sort of world-beating achievement – but it’s evidently what you get with the boy who grew up wanting to be world king."

The magnificent Marina Hyde, again.

Anecdote alert:

I had to pay a trip to a Greek hospital today, to get the official opinion on a chest CT scan. The place had its entrances all locked and rearranged, so I ended up going in via a 'goods inwards' delivery entrance, by mistake. Bloke there spoke good English and helped me in the right direction, but not before confirming I was British and saying "Ha, that Boris Johnson! What an idiot".

The UK is a laughing stock.
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Last edited by GlennB; Today at 09:29 AM.
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Old Today, 09:28 AM   #2337
Captain_Swoop
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This is madness ... the Prime Minister himself said they wouldn't ease lockdown until the alert level had dropped. The alert level has stayed at 4 and yet they're easing lockdown.

They don't know what they're doing, do they?
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Old Today, 09:29 AM   #2338
Captain_Swoop
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So let me get this right
The app doesn't work
Track and trace won't be up and running until July
The risk level has been raised to high by PHE
They've stopped telling us how many tests have been done
R remains very near 1 (above some areas)
And they're reopening schools and allowing Barbecues?
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Old Today, 09:38 AM   #2339
shuttlt
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Possibly, but it's not like papers and magazines don't kill stories all the time.
Sure, but pragmatically... if you kill the story to save your husband while he is the centre of a journalist feeding frenzy.... I can see that being cosmetically more unhelpful than simply adding one more article to the heap.
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Old Today, 09:40 AM   #2340
p0lka
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
This is madness ... the Prime Minister himself said they wouldn't ease lockdown until the alert level had dropped. The alert level has stayed at 4 and yet they're easing lockdown.

They don't know what they're doing, do they?
Well, sacrifices have to be made.
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Old Today, 09:58 AM   #2341
GlennB
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
So let me get this right
The app doesn't work
Track and trace won't be up and running until July
The risk level has been raised to high by PHE
They've stopped telling us how many tests have been done
R remains very near 1 (above some areas)
And they're reopening schools and allowing Barbecues?
Utterly clueless leadership plus a population that has, to a significant extent, given up caring and just wants to have a nice time.
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