ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

Reply
Old 26th August 2018, 04:36 AM   #201
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader
TLA Dictator
 
Foolmewunz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 39,367
Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Bernie Sanders will win in 2020 provided he's healthy.

If the Democrats are stupid enough to run another boring, centrist establishment candidate to impede him in this climate I'll probably lose hope in them forever.

Get behind Bernie if you want to win.
Oh, gawd! Not again. "Bernie in 2020: I kissed Russia's Ass First!" The Republicans would crucify him.

Bernie is currently older than Reagan was when he LEFT office! He will be 79 on Sept 8, 2020.
__________________
Ha! Foolmewunz has just been added to the list of people who aren't complete idiots. Hokulele

It's not that liberals have become less tolerant. It's that conservatives have become more intolerable.
Foolmewunz is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th August 2018, 06:29 AM   #202
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
 
Craig4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Alexandria, VA Home to the Deep State.
Posts: 17,466
Originally Posted by This is The End View Post
A good chunk of Americans are too, ahem, "primal" to vote for a President with too many syllables in their name. I wish I were joking.

Just like a candidate is more likely to win if they are at least somewhat good looking, they are more likely to win the fewer syllables they have in their name.
Those primal voters aren't going to vote for any Democrat. You're describing the failed genetic experiments and products of incest who make up Trump's base. I don't think it will be an issue with the "lesser of two evils" voters or the Obama voters who stayed home for Clinton.
Craig4 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th August 2018, 07:29 AM   #203
applecorped
Rotten to the Core
 
applecorped's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 18,533
"failed genetic experiments and products of incest who make up Trump's base"


Mmmmm.....deplorables 2.0
__________________
All You Need Is Love.
applecorped is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th August 2018, 09:08 AM   #204
Venom
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 1,763
Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Oh, gawd! Not again. "Bernie in 2020: I kissed Russia's Ass First!" The Republicans would crucify him.

Bernie is currently older than Reagan was when he LEFT office! He will be 79 on Sept 8, 2020.
Lol?

Sanders is adamant that Russia is a foe, or at least that it views the U.S. as a foe. He's just a bit hesistant when it comes to sanctions, depending on whatever's attached to them.

His ideas fare well with the general opinion; They considered him a fringe candidate in 2015 until they discovered he was just what the Democrats used to be decades earlier.

I am sad to see that he will be older, but hopefully if it doesn't work, a young upstart can continue where he left off.
Venom is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th August 2018, 06:31 PM   #205
Trebuchet
Penultimate Amazing
 
Trebuchet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: The Great Northwet
Posts: 19,096
Bernie, and Hillary, and Lieberman, and Trump are too damn old. Hell, some of them are even older than me!
__________________
Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.
Trebuchet is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th August 2018, 06:41 PM   #206
Stacyhs
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 5,971
Sadly, Hillary is done. I'd have voted for her again. Dems need someone who is on the younger side and has some charisma. Someone younger people can relate to. Whoever it is has to fire up the party. And someone not stupid enough to use fake tan that makes them look like a Cheetoh.
Stacyhs is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th August 2018, 06:48 PM   #207
Slings and Arrows
Graduate Poster
 
Slings and Arrows's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: USA
Posts: 1,743
Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Sadly, Hillary is done. I'd have voted for her again. Dems need someone who is on the younger side and has some charisma. Someone younger people can relate to. Whoever it is has to fire up the party. And someone not stupid enough to use fake tan that makes them look like a Cheetoh.

Bernie Sanders!
Slings and Arrows is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th August 2018, 07:58 AM   #208
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,032
Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Sanders is adamant that Russia is a foe, or at least that it views the U.S. as a foe. He's just a bit hesistant when it comes to sanctions, depending on whatever's attached to them.
Great bumper sticker!

I’m not meaning to be snarky, but this completely misunderstands how elections are fought.

Trump:”Comrade Sanders loved the Soviet Union! Sure he wants to put you back to work...in the salt mines!”

Sanders:”No, no, I am adamant that Russia is a foe, or at least it regard us as one...

Trump: “keep telling yourself that Comrade Sanders!”
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th August 2018, 10:55 AM   #209
Dr. Keith
Not a doctor.
 
Dr. Keith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Texas
Posts: 17,516
I don't think this guy has a chance as president, but if he wins it will look similar to when Jack Ryan had to pull out of a race and the GOP lost to some good looking nobody with a weird name in Illinois. Congress, not Senate, but still you have to keep these guys with weird names from making it to DC.
__________________
I once proposed a fun ban.

Suffering is not a punishment not a fruit of sin, it is a gift of God.
He allows us to share in His suffering and to make up for the sins of the world. -Mother Teresa
Dr. Keith is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th August 2018, 11:04 AM   #210
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 41,849
Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Bernie, and Hillary, and Lieberman, and Trump are too damn old. Hell, some of them are even older than me!
I really think a lot of the younger "Best and Brightest" are not interested in politics, frankly.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th August 2018, 11:05 AM   #211
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 41,849
Originally Posted by Slings and Arrows View Post
Bernie Sanders!
Need I remind you of Trump's age?
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th August 2018, 11:07 AM   #212
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 41,849
[quote=Craig4;12407881]Those primal voters aren't going to vote for any Democrat. You're describing the failed genetic experiments and products of incest who make up Trump's base. I don't think it will be an issue with the "lesser of two evils" voters or the Obama voters who stayed home for ]Clinton.[/QUOTE]

A mistake they will not repeat. I think there was an lot of "She will win anyway" among normally Democratic voters.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th August 2018, 12:44 PM   #213
Venom
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 1,763
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Great bumper sticker!

I’m not meaning to be snarky, but this completely misunderstands how elections are fought.

Trump:”Comrade Sanders loved the Soviet Union! Sure he wants to put you back to work...in the salt mines!”

Sanders:”No, no, I am adamant that Russia is a foe, or at least it regard us as one...

Trump: “keep telling yourself that Comrade Sanders!”
Of course on the campaign trail Sanders would not add so many qualifiers to his points either and I won't claim to have a tenth of his charisma, even at his old age.
Venom is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th August 2018, 05:41 PM   #214
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader
TLA Dictator
 
Foolmewunz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 39,367
Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
I don't think this guy has a chance as president, but if he wins it will look similar to when Jack Ryan had to pull out of a race and the GOP lost to some good looking nobody with a weird name in Illinois. Congress, not Senate, but still you have to keep these guys with weird names from making it to DC.
This is the guy we should all cheer for. It'll make the Republicans' heads explode, en masse, like that scene at the end of the first Kingsman movie. The left-leaning press doesn't mention his grampa and the right-leaning never fails to, I'm sure. Gramps was one of the featured terrorists at Munich in '72.
__________________
Ha! Foolmewunz has just been added to the list of people who aren't complete idiots. Hokulele

It's not that liberals have become less tolerant. It's that conservatives have become more intolerable.
Foolmewunz is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th August 2018, 09:18 AM   #215
WilliamSeger
Illuminator
 
WilliamSeger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 4,017
If Trump isn't on the 2020 ballot for whatever reason, Pence certainly will be. When I saw Pence debate Kaine and attempt to defend outrageous things Trump had recently said by simply denying he said them, I pegged him as a consummate opportunist -- a pseudo-Christian hypocrite who would trade his integrity for power even if it meant lying to defend his lying, pussy-grabbing, unchristian running mate. I now think I was partially right except that I'd replace "hypocrite" with "nutjob."

Here's an interview with the author of the book The Shadow President: The Truth About Mike Pence.
Synopsis: "Pence thinks God wants him to be president -- and Trump's scandals are how he'll get there."
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
__________________
"We're done! We're done! GET OUT!"
WilliamSeger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th August 2018, 12:52 PM   #216
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 11,861
Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Quote:
Great bumper sticker!
I’m not meaning to be snarky, but this completely misunderstands how elections are fought.
Trump:”Comrade Sanders loved the Soviet Union! Sure he wants to put you back to work...in the salt mines!”
Sanders:”No, no, I am adamant that Russia is a foe, or at least it regard us as one...
Trump: “keep telling yourself that Comrade Sanders!”
Of course on the campaign trail Sanders would not add so many qualifiers to his points either and I won't claim to have a tenth of his charisma, even at his old age.
Yes, and we can be sure that no candidate ever has had to deal with anything that they didn't plan out ahead of time.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 30th August 2018, 11:52 AM   #217
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
 
Brainster's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 15,921
Elizabeth Warren is making some moves:

Quote:
Elizabeth Warren’s had a deceptively busy last few weeks. She dropped one long-shot policy proposal that would try to remake corporate America, then another that aims to actually drain the Washington swamp. She put restrictions on her own fundraising practices and opened her financial books, and bid two staffers farewell as they shipped up to new jobs in New Hampshire.
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads.
1960s Comic Book Nostalgia
Visit the Screw Loose Change blog.
Brainster is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 30th August 2018, 12:59 PM   #218
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 41,849
Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Oh, gawd! Not again. "Bernie in 2020: I kissed Russia's Ass First!" The Republicans would crucify him.

Bernie is currently older than Reagan was when he LEFT office! He will be 79 on Sept 8, 2020.
Bernie is simply too damn old for the Presidency.
And anyway the post in discussion shows an incredible denial of the realities of American Politics.
It's the Lost Tribe theory of politics....that there is a vast, hidden pool of left wing voters who will turn out if the proper candidate is ran.
I hate to say it, but some of the Breniebots can give competiion to the Trumpies when it comes to denying reality. A left wing Personalty Cult is just as scary and dangerous as a right wing one.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.

Last edited by dudalb; 30th August 2018 at 01:00 PM.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2018, 01:05 AM   #219
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,032
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Bernie is simply too damn old for the Presidency.
And anyway the post in discussion shows an incredible denial of the realities of American Politics.
It's the Lost Tribe theory of politics....that there is a vast, hidden pool of left wing voters who will turn out if the proper candidate is ran.
I hate to say it, but some of the Breniebots can give competiion to the Trumpies when it comes to denying reality. A left wing Personalty Cult is just as scary and dangerous as a right wing one.
That would only be true if Bernie Sanders were running against a Democratic nomination as well as Trump.

However, if Bernie Sanders won the Democratic nomination, then the only thing that needs to be true is that a few thousand voters in the rust belt states vote for him instead of Trump. Trump only won by a small margin in swing states, not because of a "vast, hidden pool" who stayed away.

That said, I am not arguing that Sanders would definitely win. His age and his long track record will certainly be exploited by his opponents.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2018, 06:23 AM   #220
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader
TLA Dictator
 
Foolmewunz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 39,367
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
That would only be true if Bernie Sanders were running against a Democratic nomination as well as Trump.

However, if Bernie Sanders won the Democratic nomination, then the only thing that needs to be true is that a few thousand voters in the rust belt states vote for him instead of Trump. Trump only won by a small margin in swing states, not because of a "vast, hidden pool" who stayed away.

That said, I am not arguing that Sanders would definitely win. His age and his long track record will certainly be exploited by his opponents.
Well, that's not the only thing. He'd also have to not lose a few thousand voters in MN, NH, ME, CO, NV, NM, NJ, etc....
__________________
Ha! Foolmewunz has just been added to the list of people who aren't complete idiots. Hokulele

It's not that liberals have become less tolerant. It's that conservatives have become more intolerable.
Foolmewunz is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2018, 07:07 AM   #221
LSSBB
Devilish Dictionarian
 
LSSBB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: An elusive house at Bachelors Grove Cemetery
Posts: 19,851
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
That would only be true if Bernie Sanders were running against a Democratic nomination as well as Trump.

However, if Bernie Sanders won the Democratic nomination, then the only thing that needs to be true is that a few thousand voters in the rust belt states vote for him instead of Trump. Trump only won by a small margin in swing states, not because of a "vast, hidden pool" who stayed away.

That said, I am not arguing that Sanders would definitely win. His age and his long track record will certainly be exploited by his opponents.
This is all looking back to the future territory. However, in my opinion, Sanders would have gotten totally trounced by Trump. The opposition to him would have energized even more conservatives who found Trump odious, to vote against Sanders, and many who found Hillary tolerable would abandon Sanders.

All guesswork. Not going to argue it, because it's a pointless exercise in mass mind-reading.
__________________
"You must not let your need to be right be more important than your need to find out what's true." - Ray Dalio, Principles
LSSBB is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2018, 07:28 AM   #222
Distracted1
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 2,629
Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
This is all looking back to the future territory. However, in my opinion, Sanders would have gotten totally trounced by Trump. The opposition to him would have energized even more conservatives who found Trump odious, to vote against Sanders, and many who found Hillary tolerable would abandon Sanders.

All guesswork. Not going to argue it, because it's a pointless exercise in mass mind-reading.
I agree, and with a similar amount of objective evidence.
I thought we (The Democrsts) were doomed by having two unelectable candidates leading the pack- but I voted Clinton in the primaries because I thought she would have a better chance than Sanders.

I remember (with rue) that I was thrilled when the Republicans selected Trump. I thought " what luck! The Republicans have selected the only candidate who could possibly lose to Clinton! ". Clearly, my enthusiasm was misplaced
__________________
The man with one watch knows what time it is, the man with two watches is never sure.

Last edited by Distracted1; 2nd September 2018 at 07:29 AM.
Distracted1 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2018, 09:27 AM   #223
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,032
Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
This is all looking back to the future territory. However, in my opinion, Sanders would have gotten totally trounced by Trump. The opposition to him would have energized even more conservatives who found Trump odious, to vote against Sanders, and many who found Hillary tolerable would abandon Sanders.

All guesswork. Not going to argue it, because it's a pointless exercise in mass mind-reading.
I’m not arguing that Sanders would have necessarily won. I am just saying that it would not require a “vast lost tribe” of voters who were only waiting for the right candidate. Generally speaking, the Democrats and Republicans win when they mobilize their bases in the right areas. The Republicans did that because Republicans would vote for almost anyone on their team.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2018, 11:40 AM   #224
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
 
Brainster's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 15,921
Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
This is the guy we should all cheer for. It'll make the Republicans' heads explode, en masse, like that scene at the end of the first Kingsman movie. The left-leaning press doesn't mention his grampa and the right-leaning never fails to, I'm sure. Gramps was one of the featured terrorists at Munich in '72.
Will not be old enough in 2020.
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads.
1960s Comic Book Nostalgia
Visit the Screw Loose Change blog.
Brainster is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2018, 12:02 PM   #225
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
 
Brainster's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 15,921
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I’m not arguing that Sanders would have necessarily won. I am just saying that it would not require a “vast lost tribe” of voters who were only waiting for the right candidate. Generally speaking, the Democrats and Republicans win when they mobilize their bases in the right areas. The Republicans did that because Republicans would vote for almost anyone on their team.
This is basically a 40-20-40 nation. Forty percent of the people will vote for a Republican no matter what, and forty percent of the people will vote for a Democrat no matter what. That means that the election is decided by the 20% who are willing to vote either way. Thus you need moderately liberal and moderately conservative positions to win--extremists on either side can only succeed with a strong wind at their backs.

There are any number of ways to prove this. Consider that for every vote you lose in the middle with an extremist candidate, you have to pick up two from the "Lost Tribe," because a vote you lose in the middle is probably going to the other major party candidate, whereas a vote on the wings is almost never going that way--either the person doesn't vote or they vote for the Greens or the Libertarians or one of the other third parties..
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads.
1960s Comic Book Nostalgia
Visit the Screw Loose Change blog.
Brainster is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2018, 01:31 PM   #226
The_Animus
Master Poster
 
The_Animus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,919
Actually we're a 20, 10, 20, 50 nation, because half the population doesn't vote. So you either have to swing more of that 10% independant, or convince some of that 50% to actually vote.
__________________
Straw Man, Ad Hominem, Moving the Goalposts, and a massive post count are all good indicators that a poster is intellectually dishonest and not interested in real discussion.

Feeding trolls only makes them stronger, yet it is so hard to refrain.
The_Animus is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2018, 07:06 PM   #227
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader
TLA Dictator
 
Foolmewunz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 39,367
Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
Actually we're a 20, 10, 20, 50 nation, because half the population doesn't vote. So you either have to swing more of that 10% independant, or convince some of that 50% to actually vote.
What do the two 20s and the ten represent? You start with an incorrect base figure. 58% of eligible voters voted in 2016, not 50%

Current self identification of those 58% would be 28% GOP, 27% Dem, 43% Independent*. Taken as percentages of actual voters that would give us:

GOP 16.2%
Dems 15.6%
Ind 24.5%

So more like 16- 16 - 25 - 40, and a candidate or party needs to convince that stay-at-home 42% to get off their asses.

*That's from Gallup's monthly poll on self-identified party affiliation. The GOP ain't doing so great but the Dems are in deep ****. They are at a historical low of 27%. My hunch is that Not Trump works with Independents but not with party devotees. Dem voters expect more than "Hey! Don't We All Hate Trump? (and the crowd starts chanting **** Him Up!, **** Him Up!). The Democratic Party has no leadership or leader at the moment. The wounded ducks in the Clinton house, the New York Jewboy socialist, and that colored fella and his wife,..... none of them are running in 2020 (or '18). None of them has stepped up to head the Party, either. A front-runner better come out of the '18 elections or the Dems are going to have trouble beating Trump or Pence.
__________________
Ha! Foolmewunz has just been added to the list of people who aren't complete idiots. Hokulele

It's not that liberals have become less tolerant. It's that conservatives have become more intolerable.
Foolmewunz is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2018, 09:34 PM   #228
Solitaire
Neoclinus blanchardi
 
Solitaire's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 2,206
Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
This is basically a 40-20-40 nation. Forty percent of the people will vote for
a Republican no matter what, and forty percent of the people will vote for
a Democrat no matter what. That means that the election is decided by
the 20% who are willing to vote either way. Thus you need moderately
liberal and moderately conservative positions to win--extremists on either
side can only succeed with a strong wind at their backs.

There are any number of ways to prove this. Consider that for every vote you
lose in the middle with an extremist candidate, you have to pick up two from
the "Lost Tribe," because a vote you lose in the middle is probably going to
the other major party candidate, whereas a vote on the wings is almost never
going that way--either the person doesn't vote or they vote for the Greens
or the Libertarians or one of the other third parties.

Actually, it's more of a 47.5% to 5.0% to 47.5% nation.

Quote:

What Everyone Gets Wrong About Independent Voters by Joshua Holland


So rather than thinking that close to 40 percent of the electorate are “gettable”
independents that the parties must win over, it’s better to focus on those political
scientists call “floating voters”—people who have cast votes for both parties in
the past. That group has shrunk dramatically as the parties have moved further
apart, and now only represents around 5 percent of the electorate.

The irony is that as the parties sharpen their ability to reach their own voters,
they have less incentive to find common ground, which tends to piss off their
strongest partisans. For better or worse, that’s likely to continue to drive more
polarization and turn off more voters—it’s a vicious or virtual cycle, depending
on your perspective. And the fact that a lot of people call themselves
independents is probably the least interesting thing about this dynamic.

I'm worried that we may see another 2004 political vacuum polarization.
__________________
Be very careful what you put in your head, because you will never get it out again. — Phineas Gage
Solitaire is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2018, 12:14 AM   #229
Venom
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 1,763
I see a compulsion to keep giving establishment Democrats the benefit of the doubt when it comes to attracting voters. That despite their horrid track record the past decade.

Democrats are their own worst enemy. No clear vision atm.
Venom is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2018, 08:34 AM   #230
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,032
Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
This is basically a 40-20-40 nation. Forty percent of the people will vote for a Republican no matter what, and forty percent of the people will vote for a Democrat no matter what. That means that the election is decided by the 20% who are willing to vote either way. Thus you need moderately liberal and moderately conservative positions to win--extremists on either side can only succeed with a strong wind at their backs.

There are any number of ways to prove this. Consider that for every vote you lose in the middle with an extremist candidate, you have to pick up two from the "Lost Tribe," because a vote you lose in the middle is probably going to the other major party candidate, whereas a vote on the wings is almost never going that way--either the person doesn't vote or they vote for the Greens or the Libertarians or one of the other third parties..
That arithmetic works neatly if the election were simply a popular vote with the highest number of votes winning. But Trump is hardly anybody’s idea of a “moderate” whereas Clinton is a completely mainstream Democrat. He won because of the electoral college system which interferes with the arithmetic you are using.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2018, 11:55 AM   #231
phiwum
Penultimate Amazing
 
phiwum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 10,906
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Need I remind you of Trump's age?
If I'm not mistaken, Sanders is even five years or so older. At these ages, an additional five years kinda matter.
phiwum is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2018, 12:07 PM   #232
phiwum
Penultimate Amazing
 
phiwum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 10,906
Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
This is basically a 40-20-40 nation. Forty percent of the people will vote for a Republican no matter what, and forty percent of the people will vote for a Democrat no matter what. That means that the election is decided by the 20% who are willing to vote either way. Thus you need moderately liberal and moderately conservative positions to win--extremists on either side can only succeed with a strong wind at their backs.

There are any number of ways to prove this. Consider that for every vote you lose in the middle with an extremist candidate, you have to pick up two from the "Lost Tribe," because a vote you lose in the middle is probably going to the other major party candidate, whereas a vote on the wings is almost never going that way--either the person doesn't vote or they vote for the Greens or the Libertarians or one of the other third parties..
I think that's a usually pretty reasonable way to suss things, but clearly, that's not what happened in 2016. Trump was far from a middle or even reasonable candidate. He wasn't quite the traditional view of conservative values, but surely no where near the middle.
phiwum is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2018, 12:42 PM   #233
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
 
Brainster's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 15,921
Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
I think that's a usually pretty reasonable way to suss things, but clearly, that's not what happened in 2016. Trump was far from a middle or even reasonable candidate. He wasn't quite the traditional view of conservative values, but surely no where near the middle.
Trump is a unicorn in so many ways, and the dynamic of him versus Hillary was even more unique. It's tempting to say that it teaches us little about the normal alignment of the country, and I suspect once Trump departs from the scene things will revert to a more rational situation. Of course, that is of little value in discussing the 2020 election (assuming Trump is the GOP candidate again).

It is possible that someone like Warren could bring the northern blue-collar voters (who put Trump over the top) back to the Democrats. In sum, I think we're in uncharted waters.
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads.
1960s Comic Book Nostalgia
Visit the Screw Loose Change blog.

Last edited by Brainster; 3rd September 2018 at 12:44 PM.
Brainster is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2018, 12:57 PM   #234
tyr_13
Penultimate Amazing
 
tyr_13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 15,764
Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Trump is a unicorn in so many ways, and the dynamic of him versus Hillary was even more unique. It's tempting to say that it teaches us little about the normal alignment of the country, and I suspect once Trump departs from the scene things will revert to a more rational situation. Of course, that is of little value in discussing the 2020 election (assuming Trump is the GOP candidate again).

It is possible that someone like Warren could bring the northern blue-collar voters (who put Trump over the top) back to the Democrats. In sum, I think we're in uncharted waters.
I don't think the election of Trump is a unicorn, but it has been a black swan.

There is no way to go back to the older, more rational situation. You have to deal with the new situation and try to turn that into something more rational while incorporating the updated information.

To keep the animal metaphor going, you can't un-**** that goat. 90% of Republicans approve of Trump and his presidency still. They're goat ******* now, so if you want any sort of rational situation to come about you have to deal with the fact that we know that now, rather than suspect that. You have to deal with around a third of the population willing to believe obvious lies (or behave as if they do), attacks on the very underlying principles of our society, and abandon their own 'principles', if they can be convinced it will get them 'power'. They will believe and do whatever they need to, when they need to, and then the opposite when it's demanded of them.

It's not enough that you get them to stop ******* goats, you have to get them to stop being willing to **** goats. Or unite against them so their goat ******* can't do as much harm.

That went strange fast.
__________________
Circled nothing is still nothing.
"Nothing will stop the U.S. from being a world leader, not even a handful of adults who want their kids to take science lessons from a book that mentions unicorns six times." -UNLoVedRebel
Mumpsimus: a stubborn person who insists on making an error in spite of being shown that it is wrong
tyr_13 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2018, 08:34 PM   #235
PhantomWolf
Penultimate Amazing
 
PhantomWolf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,753
Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
I don't think the election of Trump is a unicorn, but it has been a black swan.
Maybe a Discworld Unicorn....
__________________

It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah
I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871)

PhantomWolf is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2018, 09:06 PM   #236
This is The End
 
This is The End's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 10,497
Originally Posted by Venom View Post
I see a compulsion to keep giving establishment Democrats the benefit of the doubt when it comes to attracting voters. That despite their horrid track record the past decade.

What are you talking about?? In the "past decade" they won 2 of the 3 presidential elections. And they won all 3 as far as the total number of "voters" is concerned.

In fact, in the past seven presidential elections the Democrats only lost the popular vote ONCE.

The Democrats "problem" is that a huge chunk of the voting block are piece of **** racist, sexist, anti-science, creator cult members. Those people need to be removed from the gene pool, not catered to. So I say good for the Democrats in not doing so.
__________________
________________________
This is The End is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2018, 09:39 PM   #237
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,032
Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Trump is a unicorn in so many ways, and the dynamic of him versus Hillary was even more unique. It's tempting to say that it teaches us little about the normal alignment of the country, and I suspect once Trump departs from the scene things will revert to a more rational situation. Of course, that is of little value in discussing the 2020 election (assuming Trump is the GOP candidate again).

It is possible that someone like Warren could bring the northern blue-collar voters (who put Trump over the top) back to the Democrats. In sum, I think we're in uncharted waters.
Exactly! And this is what I was saying about Bernie Sanders:

Quote:
if Bernie Sanders won the Democratic nomination, then the only thing that needs to be true is that a few thousand voters in the rust belt states vote for him instead of Trump. Trump only won by a small margin in swing states, not because of a "vast, hidden pool" who stayed away.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2018, 04:57 AM   #238
Belz...
Fiend God
 
Belz...'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 76,641
Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
So more like 16- 16 - 25 - 40
Dude, that adds up to 97%!
__________________
Master of the Shining Darkness

"My views are nonsense. So what?" - BobTheCoward


Belz... is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2018, 05:09 AM   #239
Belz...
Fiend God
 
Belz...'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 76,641
Originally Posted by This is The End View Post
What are you talking about?? In the "past decade" they won 2 of the 3 presidential elections. And they won all 3 as far as the total number of "voters" is concerned.

In fact, in the past seven presidential elections the Democrats only lost the popular vote ONCE.
Don't you mean twice?

ETA: Oops, see Mumbles below.
__________________
Master of the Shining Darkness

"My views are nonsense. So what?" - BobTheCoward



Last edited by Belz...; 5th September 2018 at 06:17 AM.
Belz... is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2018, 05:21 AM   #240
Mumbles
Philosopher
 
Mumbles's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 6,413
Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Don't you mean twice?
Nope. Clinton in 1992, Clinton in 1996, Gore in 2000, Bush in 2004, Obama in 2008, Obama in 2012, Clinton in 2016. BUsh in 2004 is the only time in the past 7 elections - and he was riding off post-9/11 unity even then.
Mumbles is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 05:00 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.