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Tags donald trump , immigration issues , Trump controversies

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Old 3rd November 2018, 01:08 PM   #161
Brainster
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
That’s... not how probabilty works.
That is exactly how it works.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 01:17 PM   #162
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Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy View Post
No, it means that there are not large numbers of women and children in the caravan.
Except that there are.

About 1/3 of the caravan are children (2300 out of 7000), an estimate from UNICEF, the staff of whom actually KNOW the composition of the caravan, because they are right there, at the coal face, treating the men, women and children for malnutrition.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 02:05 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by TheSupermeerkat View Post
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181102/5a0db40c88d6090aa28d814097fada26.jpg

Made me lol.
Originally Posted by baron View Post
Why? It's blatant nonsense. 3.64 billion? That means only two people in the entire world have been killed by refugees?
Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
That’s... not how probabilty works.
Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
That is exactly how it works.
Wrong, it isn't; it is NOT how probability works, when you understand that basis of the statistics and what is being calculated, and that fact that the meme uses that basis in a misleading fashion.

https://www.businessinsider.com/chan...ee-2017-2?IR=T
"The Cato Institute's Alex Nowrasteh did a risk analysis examining all the domestic terrorist attacks between 1975 and 2015 and who perpetrated them.

Nowrasteh found — based on all terrorist attacks over the 40-year period — that the annual chance of an American being killed from a terrorist attack committed by a refugee is one in 3.64 billion. Yes, billion.

The number becomes even more gargantuan if you apply it to undocumented immigrants — it's one in 10.9 billion a year.
The meme is misleading in that it leaves out two important factors used to make the calculations.

1. Its an annual statistic - the longer you live, the greater the chance of it happening to you. e.g., over 40 years, the chance is 40/3.64bn or 1/91m

2. They substituted "killed" for "killed in a terrorist" attack so people being killed in a drive by, or a robbery gone wrong, or in a jealous rage over a woman, or for financial gain, or for any other of the many reasons why one person kills another, OUTSIDE of the being involved in a terrorist attack, is not included by the calculations. Also, they are implying that by "killed" they really mean "murdered".

In 2017, there were 40,000 deaths from car accidents, less than 17,000 murders, and there were 11.6 million illegal immigrants in the USA; about 3% of the US population. The facts are that, if you are an American

1. Your chances of dying in a car accident are about 2½ times greater than that of being murdered by another American.

2. Your chances of being murdered by another American are about 33 times greater than being murdered by an illegal immigrant.

3. Your chances of dying in a car accident are about 83 times greater than that of being murdered by an illegal immigrant.

THIS is how probability works!
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Old 3rd November 2018, 02:22 PM   #164
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Wrong, it isn't; it is NOT how probability works, when you understand that basis of the statistics and what is being calculated, and that fact that the meme uses that basis in a misleading fashion.

https://www.businessinsider.com/chan...ee-2017-2?IR=T
"The Cato Institute's Alex Nowrasteh did a risk analysis examining all the domestic terrorist attacks between 1975 and 2015 and who perpetrated them.

Nowrasteh found — based on all terrorist attacks over the 40-year period — that the annual chance of an American being killed from a terrorist attack committed by a refugee is one in 3.64 billion. Yes, billion.

The number becomes even more gargantuan if you apply it to undocumented immigrants — it's one in 10.9 billion a year.
The meme is misleading in that it leaves out two important factors used to make the calculations.

1. Its an annual statistic - the longer you live, the greater the chance of it happening to you. e.g., over 40 years, the chance is 40/3.64bn or 1/91m

2. They substituted "killed" for "killed in a terrorist" attack so people being killed in a drive by, or a robbery gone wrong, or in a jealous rage over a woman, or for financial gain, or for any other of the many reasons why one person kills another, OUTSIDE of the being involved in a terrorist attack, is not included by the calculations. Also, they are implying that by "killed" they really mean "murdered".

In 2017, there were 40,000 deaths from car accidents, less than 17,000 murders, and there were 11.6 million illegal immigrants in the USA; about 3% of the US population. The facts are that, if you are an American

1. Your chances of dying in a car accident are about 2½ times greater than that of being murdered by another American.

2. Your chances of being murdered by another American are about 33 times greater than being murdered by an illegal immigrant.

3. Your chances of dying in a car accident are about 83 times greater than that of being murdered by an illegal immigrant.

THIS is how probability works!
In other words the statistic quoted is nonsense, like I said.

It's a bit like saying, "The chances of you being killed by a car is 1 in 10 billion!" leaving out that it has to be a red car bearing a bumper sticker that says 'I love my wife' travelling over a hump-backed bridge on the first weekend in November.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 02:29 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by phunk View Post
So you're saying the US isn't a better and safer place than Mexico so there's no reason they should be trying to get here?
Why they are trying to get here isn't the question. The question is why should be let them in? How do Americans benefit?
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Old 3rd November 2018, 02:33 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy View Post
Why they are trying to get here isn't the question. The question is why should be let them in? How do Americans benefit?
Some will experience the nice warm Internal Glow of Virtue. These are primarily the ones who live in nice, white communities with not an illegal immigrant in sight.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 02:59 PM   #167
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Baron,
To your question as to how America benefits...

How many asylum seekers content themselves to live on the dole, taking Welfare handouts all their life? Could it be that given half the chance, they'll happily take work at much the same rate as the native-born and other Immigrants?

In the end, the US (and many other developed countries) cannot support economic growth at the desired rate by relying on their own birthdate. Immigrants are absolutely needed. The more consumers, the more jobs and the more economic activity. It's so simple a (aveman can figure it out.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 03:01 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Except that there are.

About 1/3 of the caravan are children (2300 out of 7000), an estimate from UNICEF, the staff of whom actually KNOW the composition of the caravan, because they are right there, at the coal face, treating the men, women and children for malnutrition.
Oh great, they're malnourished as well as being uneducated, possessing no job skills and unable to speak English? We already have enough brown people in our country to do the jobs that white people and black people are too good to do.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 03:11 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by Lurch View Post
Baron,
To your question as to how America benefits...

How many asylum seekers content themselves to live on the dole, taking Welfare handouts all their life? Could it be that given half the chance, they'll happily take work at much the same rate as the native-born and other Immigrants?

In the end, the US (and many other developed countries) cannot support economic growth at the desired rate by relying on their own birthdate. Immigrants are absolutely needed. The more consumers, the more jobs and the more economic activity. It's so simple a (aveman can figure it out.
That's why due process needs to be done. If you just open the gates you can't separate the wheat from the chaff and end up with, I don't know, chaffy bread.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 03:15 PM   #170
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Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy View Post
Why they are trying to get here isn't the question. The question is why should be let them in?
We shouldn't.

Quote:
How do Americans benefit?
We don't.

We need to send a strong message that they are not welcome here. We are sick of being overrun by foreigners who breed like rabbits, use up valuable resources, force their culture and religion onto us, rape our women and murder us.

Some say the Constitution protects the millions of anchor babies and 'naturalized' citizens who have already wheedled their way in. But we don't agree with that interpretation of the law, and once we get our own judges onto the Supreme Court the way will be clear to kick them all out. It's time for real Americans to make a stand and take our country back!
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Old 3rd November 2018, 03:37 PM   #171
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
I don't personally know any Republican who would support executing a person simply for illegal immigration.

Let's stop exaggerating the evil of our political opponents. At present, Republicans (at least Trump supporters) have enough to answer for.
Uh huh.

Dolt 45 has described the refugees as an "invasion" of "vermin" that carry diseases and will bring violence and rape of women. Anyone with the slightest understanding of eliminationist speech knows exactly where this leads, so yes, everyone who is concerned of them being slaughtered is correct.

ETA: Dolt 45's thoughts of camps the size of Vermont is, for now, absurd, but to slaughter 1500 or so? I generally respect the US military far more than most on the left, but there are some incredibly racist people that have infiltrated it.

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Old 3rd November 2018, 03:58 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
We shouldn't.

We don't.

We need to send a strong message that they are not welcome here. We are sick of being overrun by foreigners who breed like rabbits, use up valuable resources, force their culture and religion onto us, rape our women and murder us.

Some say the Constitution protects the millions of anchor babies and 'naturalized' citizens who have already wheedled their way in. But we don't agree with that interpretation of the law, and once we get our own judges onto the Supreme Court the way will be clear to kick them all out. It's time for real Americans to make a stand and take our country back!
Whoa! You had me there until I clicked on your link.

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Old 3rd November 2018, 04:05 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy View Post
Oh great, they're malnourished as well as being uneducated, possessing no job skills and unable to speak English? We already have enough brown people in our country to do the jobs that white people and black people are too good to do.
Uneducated? Well then, Trump should LOVE them!

Farmers are complaining their crops are rotting because they can't hire anyone to harvest them.

Quote:
Vegetable prices may be going up soon, as a shortage of migrant workers is resulting in lost crops in California.

Farmers say they’re having trouble hiring enough people to work during harvest season, causing some crops to rot before they can be picked. Already, the situation has triggered losses of more than $13 million in two California counties alone, according to NBC News.

The ongoing battle about U.S. immigration policies is blamed for the shortage. The vast majority of California’s farm workers are foreign born, with many coming from Mexico. However, the PEW Research Center reports more Mexicans are leaving the U.S. than coming here.
http://fortune.com/2017/08/08/immigr...rotting-crops/
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Old 3rd November 2018, 04:07 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
In other words the statistic quoted is nonsense, like I said.
Its nonsense, but NOT like you said.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 04:12 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
That's why due process needs to be done. If you just open the gates you can't separate the wheat from the chaff and end up with, I don't know, chaffy bread.
I don't think that granting asylum status is really about separating wheat from chaff. It's a different form of desert.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 04:19 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy View Post
Oh great, they're malnourished as well as being uneducated, possessing no job skills and unable to speak English? We already have enough brown people in our country to do the jobs that white people and black people are too good to do.
Oh yeah, except that those lily-white, privileged Aryans you love so much, you know, the ones who live in their nice suburban gated communities with those pristine white picket fences along the frontage of their beautifully manicured sidewalks; THEY DON'T WANT TO DO THOSE JOBS.

https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/ru...rt-on-workers/

Considering how many available, high-paying jobs there are across the rural areas of our country, job seekers willing to move from the city to the country stand to significantly increase their odds of landing a job they want.
How many of your "white people" want to leave their nice, comfortable urban areas and go work in rural USA - bugger all would be my guess.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 04:30 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Oh yeah, except that those lily-white, privileged Aryans you love so much, you know, the ones who live in their nice suburban gated communities with those pristine white picket fences along the frontage of their beautifully manicured sidewalks; THEY DON'T WANT TO DO THOSE JOBS.

https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/ru...rt-on-workers/

Considering how many available, high-paying jobs there are across the rural areas of our country, job seekers willing to move from the city to the country stand to significantly increase their odds of landing a job they want.
How many of your "white people" want to leave their nice, comfortable urban areas and go work in rural USA - bugger all would be my guess.
Farmers are having to increase their wages and even provide health care benefits in order to entice workers. And even that isn't curing the problem. They still can't get enough workers. You can bet on rising prices at the market for our food to cover these higher wages and benefits because, sure as hell, the farmers aren't going to absorb them. Thanks, Donald!
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Old 3rd November 2018, 05:51 PM   #178
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Originally Posted by phunk View Post
So you're saying the US isn't a better and safer place than Mexico so there's no reason they should be trying to get here?
I should think they would prefer Canada. Why not send buses instead of soldiers. Then we could help them along by letting them travel incomfort across the U.S. To the Canadian border.

Seriously, the thing about this that is the most distressing to me is that my "my side" seems to be reacting to Trumps' politicization of this relatively minor problem (and it is a problem) by denying that it is any kind of issue at all.
Simply pointing out how much of an overreaction the Republicans are making of this does not equate to proposing some kind of solution to the issue, and I think that is apparent to most Americans.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 06:44 PM   #179
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
Wo, that's like totally cool, man. Can you tell us what you "could easily see"?
I just did that, didn't I? Didn't you understand it? I could draw you a picture if if would be helpful.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 06:45 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
Constant virtue-signaling and fantastical claims going unchecked has warped the view of reality of many on this forum. Some of these visions people have here are more delusional than those claiming to talk to God.
That's nice. Nothing to do with what I said, though. You should stick to lying about no go zones.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 06:53 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by Seismosaurus View Post
That's nice. Nothing to do with what I said, though. You should stick to lying about no go zones.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 07:14 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by Seismosaurus View Post
That's nice. Nothing to do with what I said, though. You should stick to lying about no go zones.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 08:16 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Farmers are having to increase their wages and even provide health care benefits in order to entice workers. And even that isn't curing the problem. They still can't get enough workers. You can bet on rising prices at the market for our food to cover these higher wages and benefits because, sure as hell, the farmers aren't going to absorb them. Thanks, Donald!
Perhaps we could send a few thousand troops to these locales ,instead of to the border ,to help bring in the harvest.
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Old 3rd November 2018, 10:19 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Wrong, it isn't; it is NOT how probability works, when you understand that basis of the statistics and what is being calculated, and that fact that the meme uses that basis in a misleading fashion.

2. They substituted "killed" for "killed in a terrorist" attack so people being killed in a drive by, or a robbery gone wrong, or in a jealous rage over a woman, or for financial gain, or for any other of the many reasons why one person kills another, OUTSIDE of the being involved in a terrorist attack, is not included by the calculations. Also, they are implying that by "killed" they really mean "murdered".
So if we close our eyes to the fact that the statistic in the meme is complete BS, that is how statistics work?
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Old 3rd November 2018, 11:34 PM   #185
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
So if we close our eyes to the fact that the statistic in the meme is complete BS, that is how statistics work?
There is nothing wrong with the way the figure "1 in 3.64 billion" was calculated. It is a valid statistic.

There is also nothing wrong with the reason why the statistic was calculated given what it was responding to. If you had bothered to follow the link I posted, and read and understood its content (and you clearly didn't) you would know this.

The only problem was the misleading way it was used.
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- Henry Louis Mencken - Baltimore Evening Sun, July 26, 1920
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Old 4th November 2018, 12:03 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
Trump's comment sounded pretty reasonable to me:

“We simply cannot allow people to pour into the United States undetected, undocumented, unchecked and circumventing the line of people who are waiting patiently, diligently and lawfully to become immigrants into this country.”

Why do you call that cowardice?
Trump obviously has a very serious fear of the truth. Constant lying is a cowardly way of dealing with that, don't you think?
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Old 4th November 2018, 02:37 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Its nonsense, but NOT like you said.
It is nonsense and exactly like I said. The presence of unstated qualifiers means the statistics is no better than a lie. The analogy I gave is fitting.
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Old 4th November 2018, 02:45 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
The presence of unstated qualifiers means the statistics meme is no better than a lie. The analogy I gave is fitting wrong.
FTFY
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Old 4th November 2018, 03:00 AM   #189
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Originally Posted by Seismosaurus View Post
That's nice. Nothing to do with what I said, though. You should stick to lying about no go zones.
Tell that to your Home Secretary.

https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/statu...739714?lang=en



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Old 4th November 2018, 03:22 AM   #190
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
FTFY
Is that meant to be an argument? It was a statistic. It was wrong. The analogy I gave was fitting. Deal with it.
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Old 4th November 2018, 03:24 AM   #191
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
You Really Don't get it ?
It a political stunt to rev up his "base" before the election on Tuesday. It's politics, pure and simple.
I know but the reality is so simple to check, it's really mind boggling to me that even the base is buying it.

Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
Get ahold of yourself. You're being unhinged and silly.
He's repeating the words of the President, Sir. Take it up with him.

Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
Just one person's opinions. Being "harmless" doesn't grant a person the right to enter the US illegally.
Who says they'd come illegally? They're in plain sight! Get a grip.

Quote:
Constant virtue-signaling and fantastical claims going unchecked has warped the view of reality of many on this forum.
Never has a more ironic statement been made.
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Old 4th November 2018, 05:35 AM   #192
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us...cid=spartanntp

Oh good, the stupid people are coming with guns. Nothing improves a situation like a bunch of armed, Trump supporting morons.
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Old 4th November 2018, 09:26 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Farmers are having to increase their wages and even provide health care benefits in order to entice workers. And even that isn't curing the problem. They still can't get enough workers. You can bet on rising prices at the market for our food to cover these higher wages and benefits because, sure as hell, the farmers aren't going to absorb them. Thanks, Donald!
It almost sounds like you're opposed to increasing wages for workers.
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Old 4th November 2018, 09:59 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
It almost sounds like you're opposed to increasing wages for workers.
It sounds like you're truly desperate to make Trump look good.
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Old 4th November 2018, 11:10 AM   #195
smartcooky
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Is that meant to be an argument? It was a statistic. It was wrong. The analogy I gave was fitting. Deal with it.
The statistic was correct, the way the meme used it was wrong.

Learn to tell the difference!
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Old 4th November 2018, 11:44 AM   #196
baron
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
The statistic was correct, the way the meme used it was wrong.

Learn to tell the difference!
No, another statistic was correct. This one was wrong; obviously, blatantly, irrevocably wrong, like a nuclear powered beacon of wrongness going supernova in the Sea of So Very Very ******* Wrong, and I can't imagine why you're on this bizarre hiding to nothing.
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Old 4th November 2018, 12:18 PM   #197
smartcooky
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
No, another statistic was correct. This one was wrong; obviously, blatantly, irrevocably wrong, like a nuclear powered beacon of wrongness going supernova in the Sea of So Very Very ******* Wrong, and I can't imagine why you're on this bizarre hiding to nothing.
I don't see it the way you see it

You don't see it that way I see it

SWSWSW!
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As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
- Henry Louis Mencken - Baltimore Evening Sun, July 26, 1920
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Old 4th November 2018, 01:28 PM   #198
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Oh yeah, except that those lily-white, privileged Aryans you love so much, you know, the ones who live in their nice suburban gated communities with those pristine white picket fences along the frontage of their beautifully manicured sidewalks; THEY DON'T WANT TO DO THOSE JOBS.

https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/ru...rt-on-workers/

Considering how many available, high-paying jobs there are across the rural areas of our country, job seekers willing to move from the city to the country stand to significantly increase their odds of landing a job they want.
How many of your "white people" want to leave their nice, comfortable urban areas and go work in rural USA - bugger all would be my guess.
What's your obsession with White people? Black people are too good for those jobs and refuse to do them as well. I know you hate black people and don't care how immigration affects them. But you can't simply brush them aside.

Obviously you and others of your ilk think the perfect solution to White and black people refusal to do disgusting jobs is to recruit desperately poor people from third world ******** countries who don't know any better and are willing to do anything to survive. To the billion or so people in the world who don't have access to clean drinking water, a homeless man in America who can walk into any public park at any time and find a drinking fountain is living like a King. So there is a long line of people that you can exploit and discard.

You think taking advantage of those people is a grand idea. I think helping those people in place is better long term solution. But if you want an endless supply of workers who would be content to mow your lawn for a subsistence wage and you don't see that as a moral failing on your part then by all means, open the border.

Remember that your "they do the jobs that Americans won't do" mantra was one of the justifications for slavery.
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Old 4th November 2018, 01:32 PM   #199
mgidm86
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Farmers are having to increase their wages and even provide health care benefits in order to entice workers. And even that isn't curing the problem. They still can't get enough workers. You can bet on rising prices at the market for our food to cover these higher wages and benefits because, sure as hell, the farmers aren't going to absorb them. Thanks, Donald!

We should let these companies continue to profit off of illegal labor? Or do you think they pass those savings on to us consumers? How do companies in areas with less access to illegals, or that refuse to break the law by hiring them compete?

How about they join the rest of the country and do things legally instead? What's so special about big agriculture?

Oh wait, agriculture is but a small part of the work illegals do. Should we also allow building contractors to hire illegals so that they can out-bid companies who do not? They do now.

When should the "illegal" bit actually be illegal and when should it not? Oh wait - they're undocumented, not illegal! Ah I see how this works!

Intentionally breaking laws seems like a really stupid way of fixing any problem.

Why is allowing illegals in this country so important to you? I know why it's important to the Dems and the Repubs and big business, but why you or anyone else on this board? Surely you can come up with a better reason than "We need to exploit them for cheaper things". That's just evil.

The government and big business tell you it's about compassion so you will go along with it but it's really about money and political influence. You are being conned.


Just thought I'd stop by. Man this place is getting ugly.
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Old 4th November 2018, 01:36 PM   #200
CaptainHowdy
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Farmers are having to increase their wages and even provide health care benefits in order to entice workers. And even that isn't curing the problem. They still can't get enough workers. You can bet on rising prices at the market for our food to cover these higher wages and benefits because, sure as hell, the farmers aren't going to absorb them. Thanks, Donald!
So you have a problem with immigrant farm workers earning more money and having health insurance? Got it.
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