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Old 17th November 2018, 10:03 AM   #41
Giordano
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He confirmed to me what I was taught in high school as to how big lies, inciting fear, and scapegoating minorities can be used to gain political power.
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Old 17th November 2018, 10:45 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I just realized we were supposed to complement him, not compliment him. I'll have to think about how to do that.
Good point; I couldn't think of a compliment, but here's a complement: If you add his positive and negative images together, he completely disappears.

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Old 17th November 2018, 12:37 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
I have a legitimate compliment for Trump, but first I'm waiting for a legitimate criticism in the other thread. Maybe ahhell's comment could count, but he says he's not a Trump supporter and I'm definitely a Trump critic, so I'll wait for one of the faithful to stop praising him with faint damnation.
I gave an honest criticism of him. Or don't you accept my credentials as a "supporter"?
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Old 17th November 2018, 02:49 PM   #44
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Complement him? OK, fava beans and a nice chianti.
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Old 17th November 2018, 03:09 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
I thought the way he was able to laugh at the situation when he found himself being laughed at during that UN speech was endearing. The room warmed to him.

Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Probably the best comb-over in history.

After years of denial, he was also able to joke about his 'bald spot' (The Hill, Feb. 23, 2018).
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Old 17th November 2018, 03:27 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Good point; I couldn't think of a compliment, but here's a complement: If you add his positive and negative images together, he completely disappears.

http://odbic.com/images/TrumpComplement.jpg
one small issue with this, if you add the negative of an image to the image itself, it goes gray, not black.
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Old 17th November 2018, 07:18 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
one small issue with this, if you add the negative of an image to the image itself, it goes gray, not black.
I guess it depends on how you do it, but if you add the RGB values that graphics programs take as the negative of an image, you get FFFFFF white. But that seems visually counter-intuitive so I took artistic license and made it black.
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Old 17th November 2018, 07:33 PM   #48
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Hass taken narcissism to a new unrecorded level among US Presidents.
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Old 17th November 2018, 08:10 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
Hass taken narcissism to a new unrecorded level among US P residents.
FTFY
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Old 17th November 2018, 09:29 PM   #50
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Trump's just making do with the situation. He inherited a lot of problems. Under Obama, things went from bad to Mexican.
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Old 17th November 2018, 10:07 PM   #51
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There really is nothing positive to honestly say about him. Even the ones that some have offered don't really work.

Being an outsider? No, he's been doing exactly what the Republican Establishment wants practically every step of the way.

Being effective at outmaneuvering political enemies? No, they're the Democrat Establishment. That's like occasionally managing to beat a blind person with Parkinson's Disease at an archery contest.

Being good at his constant fraud & cons & rabble-rousing? No, he just lucked into being in the right places & times with marks who wanted to be marks.

The new approach with North Korea, which I said before was probably the right one, or at least better than the decades of coddling that we know from experience accomplishes nothing? No, the fact that bombastic blustery buffoonery might be how to get through to KJU doesn't mean that Trump actually being a bombastic blustery buffoon is anything more than coincidence. To get credit, he would need to have gotten to the decision by analyzing the available information and following some kind of logical steps of reasoning.

Trump was born on third base and thinks he kicked a touchdown. This thread is the equivalent of trying to set the record straight that it's actually called a "triple".
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Old 17th November 2018, 10:17 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
I gave an honest criticism of him. Or don't you accept my credentials as a "supporter"?
You described your opinion of Trump as being somewhere between despise and contempt, but not outright hate. That's not exactly support... but it's probably as close as the man can get these days, and more importantly if I wait for the usual suspects it won't be until the impeachment when they can pretend never to have liked him. So here goes:

For all his faults, Trump has a masterful command of the news cycle. He's been able to shrug off scandals and gaffes that would be the death blow for most politicians' careers, not by the usual route of being a decent human being and/or not making them in the first place, but by doubling down with impeccable timing no matter how offensive or untrue that doubling down may be. The media never has a chance to work up proper outrage at any specific issue because he's already saying something even more outrageous which everyone will have to cover instead. I'm genuinely impressed that even two years into his presidency, it's still working out pretty well for him.
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Old 18th November 2018, 12:11 AM   #53
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He's really awesome at making gullible morons (AKA american republicans) feel good about their horrible life-choices.
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Old 18th November 2018, 04:14 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
Being good at his constant fraud & cons & rabble-rousing? No, he just lucked into being in the right places & times with marks who wanted to be marks.
He's entirely unfit for office (with reports that White House staff considered invoking the 25th Amendment, no less), yet not only is he still there 2 years later, an election that was touted as a referendum on his performance in the job turned up exactly the kind of results you'd expect with any other president, rather than the "blue wave" predicted by many. He's had scandal after scandal that would have sunk any other politician, let alone president, yet there he still is and, regardless of what any polls or popularity rating says, he's doing as well as any average president at this point in their tenure and is likely to win the next presidential election if he doesn't get impeached or dropped by the Republicans first.

You can unconvincingly hand-wave it as "luck" if you want, it seems to me that he's good at telling enough people what they want to hear and convincing enough people that he's the right person for the job to have gained power and to keep that power.
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Old 18th November 2018, 04:21 AM   #55
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His hair is very Orange?
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Old 18th November 2018, 04:26 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by Lambchops View Post
He's really awesome at making gullible morons (AKA american republicans) feel good about their horrible life-choices.
He brings people like this out of the woodwork so we can see them for what they are.
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Old 18th November 2018, 06:13 AM   #57
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He has the best hurricanes! Much bigger than Obama’s.
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Old 18th November 2018, 06:28 AM   #58
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All things wicked were so sadly consigned to the shadows and back alley conversation until the rise of Trump. Now it is "cool" and "in" to advocate pure evil while smiling evangelicals look on in catatonic bliss. Gee, thanks! I love idiotic grins!

I'd also like to thank Trump and the Republicans for replacing the tired old political standby of left-right with shiny new dimensions: normal-abnormal, tethered-untethered. To top that off, we have the fine, inspiring and ongoing revolutions in the justice system: happy torturer (offshore)-partially civilized (onshore). This is nicely complemented by the white-and-welcome vs nonwhite-and-properly-caged immigration policy.

Fresh and innovative! If only they'd bring back cave fighting and flint knapping, shucks.
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Old 18th November 2018, 06:30 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
rather than the "blue wave" predicted by many.
People predicted a blue wave, and got a blue wave, that doesn't make it not a blue wave.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-a-blue-wave/

Quote:
he's doing as well as any average president at this point in their tenure
He's doing historically worse.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo
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Old 18th November 2018, 06:34 AM   #60
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He got more women interested in politics than ever before, resulting in more women having political positions than ever before.
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Old 18th November 2018, 07:26 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
People predicted a blue wave, and got a blue wave, that doesn't make it not a blue wave.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-a-blue-wave/
Did you read the article I posted? Nothing in the link you provided contradicts anything in it. And you're missing things like this:

Quote:
Going all the way back to the Civil War, there were only two instances when a new party seized the presidency but didn’t lose seats in the House during their first midterm elections: Under President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934 (during the Great Depression), and President George W. Bush in 2002 (in the shadow of the 9/11 terrorist attacks). Even including these outliers, the average attrition during a party’s inaugural midterms is 35 House seats; excluding these two exceptions, the average loss is 41. Regardless of which number we run with, Trump could end up performing better than average in preserving his party’s influence in the House.
The Democrats have picked up 34 seats to date, with the possibility of raising that number to 40. That's between average and slightly above average. It's not a country rising up en masse and declaring that they're unhappy with the status quo.

Quote:
Leaving aside the fact that the article I posted also talks briefly about approval ratings and that I was talking about actual political performance rather than approval, this shows that Trump is doing 2.7% worse than Obama at this point in his presidency. 1.3% worse than Clinton. 0.5% worse than Reagan. So, yes, worse but nothing indicative of a huge rejection by the people. Just that slightly fewer people approve of him than they did many of his predecessors - some of whom are characterised as being incredibly popular.
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Old 18th November 2018, 09:06 AM   #62
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My blue eyes nicely complement his orange complexion.
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Old 18th November 2018, 09:11 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
The Democrats have picked up 34 seats to date, with the possibility of raising that number to 40. That's between average and slightly above average. It's not a country rising up en masse and declaring that they're unhappy with the status quo.

Leaving aside the fact that the article I posted also talks briefly about approval ratings and that I was talking about actual political performance rather than approval, this shows that Trump is doing 2.7% worse than Obama at this point in his presidency. 1.3% worse than Clinton. 0.5% worse than Reagan. So, yes, worse but nothing indicative of a huge rejection by the people. Just that slightly fewer people approve of him than they did many of his predecessors - some of whom are characterised as being incredibly popular.
And I think that's why both sides are having a hard time writing the narrative they want to write about this.

"The Blue Wave" was never about the exact raw numbers.

The voters were supposed to either accept Trump or reject him, not remain indifferent to him. And that's a much harder narrative for either side to write for themselves.
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Old 18th November 2018, 09:24 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
And I think that's why both sides are having a hard time writing the narrative they want to write about this.

"The Blue Wave" was never about the exact raw numbers.

The voters were supposed to either accept Trump or reject him, not remain indifferent to him. And that's a much harder narrative for either side to write for themselves.
I agree entirely. I've seen a lot of left-leaning sources saying that one of the points in the Democrats' favour was how many people turned out and that that proves how fired up people are, which ignores that while it was the highest turn out in a century, the people who were "fired up" were on both sides of the political spectrum. And it's still less than 50% of eligible voters who voted at all.

The fact is that those who did vote didn't really do anything all that extraordinary, and the majority of eligible people didn't bother to vote at all.
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Old 18th November 2018, 09:35 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
The Democrats have picked up 34 seats to date, with the possibility of raising that number to 40. That's between average and slightly above average. It's not a country rising up en masse and declaring that they're unhappy with the status quo.
I take your broader point. But here, you need to take into into raw vote differential and gerrymandering. It was a larger wave than the seat pickup indicates, compared to historical results.
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Old 18th November 2018, 10:06 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
I take your broader point. But here, you need to take into into raw vote differential and gerrymandering. It was a larger wave than the seat pickup indicates, compared to historical results.
Again, this was addressed, and isn't quite that simple.

Even looking at the House, using the data Beezlebuddy posted, it doesn't look like anything extraordinary is going on. Even the way they phrase it as third highest popular vote margin of the last 25 years doesn't sound like much when you think about it. Third highest? So more than 4% less of a rejection of Trump than 2008 was a rejection of John McCain? If this shows Democrats rising up against Trump, then McCain must have been much worse, right?

Estimating the numbers to the nearest integer based on that graph (as they don't give or link to the actual numbers), it seems that the average is 4.1. 6.8 is definitely above average, but it's not extraordinarily so, and 8 out of the 14 numbers are above average. 5 out of the 14 figures are in the same 5-7 range.

If you factor in the two higher swings, then you've got a full half of the results indicating a "wave". If that's really the correct way to frame it, then the only conclusion to come to is that US politics is extremely volatile. Which, again, just means that this result doesn't actually stand out as extraordinary.
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Old 18th November 2018, 11:16 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Did you read the article I posted? Nothing in the link you provided contradicts anything in it. And you're missing things like this:



The Democrats have picked up 34 seats to date, with the possibility of raising that number to 40. That's between average and slightly above average. It's not a country rising up en masse and declaring that they're unhappy with the status quo.



Leaving aside the fact that the article I posted also talks briefly about approval ratings and that I was talking about actual political performance rather than approval, this shows that Trump is doing 2.7% worse than Obama at this point in his presidency. 1.3% worse than Clinton. 0.5% worse than Reagan. So, yes, worse but nothing indicative of a huge rejection by the people. Just that slightly fewer people approve of him than they did many of his predecessors - some of whom are characterised as being incredibly popular.
Just because other waves happen, and this wave is within the same height range of other waves, does not make this wave not a wave.
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Old 18th November 2018, 12:03 PM   #68
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Your denialism, along with your treatment of "he's still there" as if that were a huge achievement with his own party in control of the only mechanisms to remove him, is a demonstration of exactly my point. He's done nothing himself. He's just been there when enough of the right other people went crazy.
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Old 18th November 2018, 03:39 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
Just because other waves happen, and this wave is within the same height range of other waves, does not make this wave not a wave.
It rather undermines the meaning of "wave" as something notable, though, as well as the idea that the election just gone was a negative referendum.
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Old 18th November 2018, 03:49 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
Your denialism, along with your treatment of "he's still there" as if that were a huge achievement with his own party in control of the only mechanisms to remove him, is a demonstration of exactly my point. He's done nothing himself. He's just been there when enough of the right other people went crazy.
Denialism of what? You haven't actually made an argument. You haven't even offered a counter-argument. You have just, ironically given your use of that term, offered unthinking denials and straw-manned what I actually said out of existence.
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Old 18th November 2018, 04:51 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Even looking at the House, using the data Beezlebuddy posted, it doesn't look like anything extraordinary is going on. Even the way they phrase it as third highest popular vote margin of the last 25 years doesn't sound like much when you think about it. Third highest? So more than 4% less of a rejection of Trump than 2008 was a rejection of John McCain? If this shows Democrats rising up against Trump, then McCain must have been much worse, right?
I certainly don't think anyone in their right mind would think McCain was much worse, but was 2008 really a rejection of McCain? It felt more like a rejection of GWB (and his party) to me.

And there's certainly a debate to be had over who's worse between GWB and DJT.
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Old 18th November 2018, 07:36 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
The fact is that those who did vote didn't really do anything all that extraordinary, and the majority of eligible people didn't bother to vote at all.
I don't agree. They overcame many barriers that were set up to keep them from voting and voted enough to overcome outright cheating from the GOP.
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Old 18th November 2018, 08:22 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
It rather undermines the meaning of "wave" as something notable, though, as well as the idea that the election just gone was a negative referendum.
No, because these waves happen with non-waves interspersed. Not every wave is a tsunami.
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Old 19th November 2018, 02:35 AM   #74
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I really, honestly, don't think that when people were talking about a "blue wave" coming up to the election that what they meant was "absolutely ordinary and expected gains, as were seen in literally half of the elections in the last quarter of a century".
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Old 19th November 2018, 02:40 AM   #75
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There isn't a formal definition for a wave. I see no point in debating it. However I'll leave y'all with Nate Silver's thoughts:

Originally Posted by Nate Silver
The arguments that it ISNíT a blue wave are dumb. Can we end the chat now and get lunch?
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Old 19th November 2018, 02:43 AM   #76
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I think people wanted enough voter turn-out to overcome the cheating of the GOP. That's what the blue wave was. We're talking a significant amount of people to overcome the Republican cheating, over 5% more people than would be needed if Republicans didn't cheat.
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Old 19th November 2018, 02:50 AM   #77
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FWIW, looking at the historical data for presidential elections the average margin in the popular vote is 9.58. Had the fivethirtyeight chart gone back just 8 years further it would have included a margin of 7.72 from George W. Bush and a margin of 18.21 from Ronald Reagan, which would have made the current results look a lot less impressive.

I can't find historical data for the midterms, but I would direct people to the article I linked earlier which discusses why citing popular vote data for midterms is spurious.
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Old 19th November 2018, 02:54 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
There isn't a formal definition for a wave. I see no point in debating it.
I don't think there's a debate to be had. I think anybody who is claiming that what was meant by "a blue wave" was "expected and ordinary gains which are average at best", even if they truly believe that, didn't believe that before the election results came in.

Quote:
However I'll leave y'all with Nate Silver's thoughts:
Yes, throwing out ad hominems is a great way to look reasonable.
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Old 19th November 2018, 02:55 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
I think people wanted enough voter turn-out to overcome the cheating of the GOP. That's what the blue wave was. We're talking a significant amount of people to overcome the Republican cheating, over 5% more people than would be needed if Republicans didn't cheat.
Yes, more Democrats voted. So did more Republicans. And still fewer than half of eligible voters voted at all.
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Old 19th November 2018, 03:19 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Yes, throwing out ad hominems is a great way to look reasonable.
Not knowing what an ad hominem is has achieved pandemic status.
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