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Old 19th November 2018, 05:57 AM   #81
Squeegee Beckenheim
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Not knowing what an ad hominem is has achieved pandemic status.
"Your argument is wrong because you're dumb" is a textbook example of an ad hominem. Quite literally:

Quote:
Ad Hominem (Abusive)
argumentum ad hominem

(also known as: personal abuse, personal attacks, abusive fallacy, damning the source, name calling, refutation by caricature, against the person, against the man)

Description: Attacking the person making the argument, rather than the argument itself, when the attack on the person is completely irrelevant to the argument the person is making.

Logical Form:

Person 1 is claiming Y.

Person 1 is a moron.

Therefore, Y is not true.
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Old 19th November 2018, 06:03 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
"Your argument is wrong because you're dumb" is a textbook example of an ad hominem. Quite literally:
Yes, but that's exactly NOT what Nate Silver said. He said the argument itself was dumb, not the person or persons making it.
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Old 19th November 2018, 06:03 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
"Your argument is wrong because you're dumb" is a textbook example of an ad hominem. Quite literally:
Except I already stated that I agree with your broader point. Pay attention please.
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Old 19th November 2018, 06:13 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
Yes, but that's exactly NOT what Nate Silver said. He said the argument itself was dumb, not the person or persons making it.
Fair enough. Then, instead of an ad hominem it is an unconstructive dismissal.
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Old 19th November 2018, 06:15 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Except I already stated that I agree with your broader point. Pay attention please.
Then you quoted it to call your own opinion "dumb"? I'm struggling to see what point you thought you were making by posting it.
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Old 19th November 2018, 06:29 AM   #86
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This is what I'm talking when I said the "Blue Wave" was never really about the numbers.

"Dems take the House, GOP holds onto the Senate, no real massive change eitherway in Governships and State Houses, voter turnout only has a small spike at most" is what... everyone was saying was going to happen and it did happen.

Now both sides are trying to spin a forgone conclusion into a win for their side by trying to pin a narrative on it where every vote in America was a rejection or re-acceptance of Trump despite... that not being what this election was about.

As to all the "Well you see the data shows that if the Whig Party beats the No-nothing party in the Midterm election by a margin of more than .5% that translates to a .07% increase in the probability that a Whig will take the White House in the next election unless Ohio votes against Riverboat Gambling..." at a certain point that stuff just turns into trumped up astrology.
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Old 19th November 2018, 06:35 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Then you quoted it to call your own opinion "dumb"? I'm struggling to see what point you thought you were making by posting it.
Because I think you're lost in the semantic weeds. I certainly didn't call you dumb, although I was tempted after the fact.
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Old 19th November 2018, 07:32 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
"Dems take the House, GOP holds onto the Senate, no real massive change eitherway in Governships and State Houses...
Most governors were Republican and now most will be Democrat, because of R→D flips in at least 7 governors' races (possibly up to 9 depending on the latest updates). The Democrats flipped almost 400 State legislative seats in one shot, compared to the loss of a thousand that's always said to be such a disaster over Obama's entire Presidency. They gained 6 state trifectas (governorship plus both legislative houses), took away 4 Republican trifectas, still flipped 2 more state houses elsewhere, and that's not even counting how many supermajorities they gained, whether as flips or just growth of previous majorities (2 of which happened in the same state). The Democrat pickup in the HOR was bigger than any in the last few decades, some others of which were called "waves" before without denial. Estimates ahead of time were putting it in the low 30s and it ended up about 40. Compared to previous elections, vote numbers swung an average of 10 points toward Democrats even in places so red that they still lost (like Beto gaining about 40 in Texas), and 21 points where they won. And pretty much every direct ballot measure went the left's way, from gun control to marijuana legalization to minimum wage increases to renewable energy to voter registration & voting rights to housing for the homeless to Medicare & Medicaid. And that was with more Democrats than ever putting themselves at a financial disadvantage by not accepting PAC$.

Even in the Senate, the only point for Republicans to cling to as going their way, the map of who was up and where heavily favored the Republicans, as did the fact that several of their "Democrat" opponents campaigned on "look how Republican I am and the Republicans are right about a lot of things", so a neutral average year should have given them 4-6 new Republican Senators, but they still only picked up 2, which is a blue-wave-year failure under the circumstances.

There's a reason why most Republicans & the commentators on their side have mostly been so silent on the election results and Trump has been on even more of a rampage than usual. It's because they know they lost. If the isolated pockets of denial to be found here & there were true, the entire right would all be reveling in it together, not mostly hiding from it. The right's own behavior exposes their own denialist enclave's dishonesty about what happened. For that matter, even ignoring the silent/rampaging ones, even the deniers are exposing it themselves whenever they feel the need to resort to harping on "he's still there" as if that had anything to do with anything; that kind of desperation to find something to call "positive" only affects people who know things are really mostly negative for themselves.

And this was all while some on the right were claiming it would be not just "no wave" but a red one.

Last edited by Delvo; 19th November 2018 at 08:39 AM.
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Old 19th November 2018, 07:49 AM   #89
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The governorship isn't like the House or Senate where a majority means anything. State Governors don't work as a collective. A minor shift in power in governorships isn't all the meaningful.
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Old 19th November 2018, 07:50 AM   #90
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Maybe everyone should simply agree it was more of a Blue Tide than a Blue Wave, and move on to more pressing matters.
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Old 19th November 2018, 08:38 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Because I think you're lost in the semantic weeds.
The only semantics I've been engaged in is whether people really meant "completely average and predictable result" when they were talking about a "blue wave". I don't think they did, and I don't really think that anybody actually thinks that they did.

Some examples: https://www.denverpost.com/2018/10/1...-be-a-tsunami/

Quote:
A blue wave is coming.

On Nov. 6, Colorado voters are poised to award the Democrats a political trifecta: control of the office of governor, state House and Senate. The available data and political science of the moment — recent election results, female and unaffiliated voter participation and the strength of the Democrat’s bench — all point to a blue wave this year.
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/dail...wave-is-coming

Quote:
With a surge in support for Democrats across the country, it’s clear that a blue wave is coming this November. Projections indicate that, this fall, the Democrats might not just take back the House but also the Senate, the Presidency, the Supreme Court, and the leadership of the Republican Party. By any measure, especially that of hopes and wishes, there is a blue wave on the horizon.
That's the first two hits on google. And now it's being painted as actually having meant "an average result that's the minimum you'd expect in literally 50% of all elections". I'm making an argument against it because I'm not usually the kind of guy who just dismisses things out of hand, but I think it's pretty much self-evidently nonsense.

Quote:
I certainly didn't call you dumb, although I was tempted after the fact.
Lovely.
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Old 19th November 2018, 08:42 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
For that matter, even ignoring the silent/rampaging ones, even the deniers are exposing it themselves whenever they feel the need to resort to harping on "he's still there" as if that had anything to do with anything; that kind of desperation to find something to call "positive" only affects people who know things are really mostly negative for themselves.
Choosing to stick with that straw man while berating others for not facing up to reality, I see.
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Old 19th November 2018, 10:12 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
The only semantics I've been engaged in is whether people really meant "completely average and predictable result" when they were talking about a "blue wave". I don't think they did, and I don't really think that anybody actually thinks that they did.

Some examples: https://www.denverpost.com/2018/10/1...-be-a-tsunami/



https://www.newyorker.com/humor/dail...wave-is-coming



That's the first two hits on google. And now it's being painted as actually having meant "an average result that's the minimum you'd expect in literally 50% of all elections". I'm making an argument against it because I'm not usually the kind of guy who just dismisses things out of hand, but I think it's pretty much self-evidently nonsense.



Lovely.
The headline of the very first article illustrates my point.
"There will be a wave but it could be a tsunami"

It was a wave. It wasn't a tsunami.
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Old 19th November 2018, 11:26 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
The headline of the very first article illustrates my point.
"There will be a wave but it could be a tsunami"

It was a wave. It wasn't a tsunami.
You might have to read past the headline. The article is about how taking control of the office of governor, the House, and the Senate would be a bad thing for the Democrats. It's not saying "there's going to be a wave, but it could be a big wave", it's saying "there's going to be a wave, but this could be destructive".
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Old 19th November 2018, 12:04 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
The governorship isn't like the House or Senate where a majority means anything. State Governors don't work as a collective. A minor shift in power in governorships isn't all the meaningful.
Can't it make a big difference for redistricting after the 2020 census?
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Old 19th November 2018, 12:09 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by Dread Pirate Roberts View Post
Can't it make a big difference for redistricting after the 2020 census?
It can, and I have said before Republican state houses okaying gerrymandering is largely what got the GOP so many wins in Congress. I'm not arguing that Governorships don't matter, far from it.

But my point was concepts like "majority" don't mean as much (or doesn't mean the same thing depending on how you look at) as a majority in a House of Congress.

51 Senators from the Pro-Widget Party can do a whole lot more than just 49 Senators from the Pro-Widget Party. 51 Pro-Widget Governors can only did a little bit more than 49 Pro-Widget Governors.
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Old 19th November 2018, 01:17 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
You might have to read past the headline. The article is about how taking control of the office of governor, the House, and the Senate would be a bad thing for the Democrats. It's not saying "there's going to be a wave, but it could be a big wave", it's saying "there's going to be a wave, but this could be destructive".
That's why I referred to the headline. Regardless, waves are not tsunamis. Waves happen, often periodically. It was a wave. It wasn't an ebb, it wasn't sea spray, it wasn't a deluge or a worldwide flood.


It was a wave. Just a wave. Enough of a wave. Enough of the discussion.
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Old 19th November 2018, 01:33 PM   #98
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I agree: Enough. Who cares whether it was a 'wave', a 'tsunami', a 'tide', or a freaking ripple? The numbers are the numbers. 232-200 in the House with 3 seats still outstanding. Some people argue just to argue.
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Old 19th November 2018, 01:55 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I agree: Enough. Who cares whether it was a 'wave', a 'tsunami', a 'tide', or a freaking ripple? The numbers are the numbers. 232-200 in the House with 3 seats still outstanding. Some people argue just to argue.
But it must have the correct label! Reality doesn't matter, unless we can agree on what label we're using!

I mean, seriously, if you have to choose between the packaging and what's actually there, I think the only rational choice is clear. 9 out of 10 cats prefer the packaging to the product!
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Old 19th November 2018, 03:26 PM   #100
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Old 19th November 2018, 04:15 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I really, honestly, don't think that when people were talking about a "blue wave" coming up to the election that what they meant was "absolutely ordinary and expected gains, as were seen in literally half of the elections in the last quarter of a century".
Really?

Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
What's a "blue wave"? I expect the Dems to take over the House by a comfortable margin - like finishing the night with 12 to 20 more seats than the GOP. I expect the GOP to hold the Senate and even perhaps pick up a seat or two. And I expect a few very important governorships to go to the Dems, with a net pickup of 6 to 8.
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Old 19th November 2018, 05:45 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
I guess it depends on how you do it, but if you add the RGB values that graphics programs take as the negative of an image, you get FFFFFF white. But that seems visually counter-intuitive so I took artistic license and made it black.
I literally superimposed the positive and negative images together, you get gray.
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Old 19th November 2018, 06:15 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
I literally superimposed the positive and negative images together, you get gray.
Well, if you did it as a "layer" with 50% transparency, that would add together 50% of each layer, so you'd only get 50% of the total FFFFFF, or 808080 gray. I think white is the correct answer if you superimposed projected images, and black is the correct answer if you looked through stacked positive and negative transparencies.
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Old 20th November 2018, 02:46 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
Really?
And still more semantic games. Read the post in context. Foolmewunz is questioning the terminology in the first sentence, and then saying what he expects to happen in the next two, not offering a definition of the term in the second two.

Seriously, people, if you have to pretend that headlines, articles, and posts say things that are different to what they actually say in order to try to support the notion that the term "blue wave" was meant to imply absolutely nothing unusual whatsoever, then perhaps it's worth considering that that view isn't built on as solid a foundation as you're trying to imply?

This is exactly the kind of nonsense that the more fervent Trump supporters rightly get raked over the coals for on this board.
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Old 20th November 2018, 05:12 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
And still more semantic games. Read the post in context. Foolmewunz is questioning the terminology in the first sentence, and then saying what he expects to happen in the next two, not offering a definition of the term in the second two.
So what? Those are more or less the same predictions as the experts. They predicted Dems would perform better than recent elections. That prediction was described as a blue wave. The results exceeded expectations -- slightly. So what?

Quote:
Seriously, people, if you have to pretend that headlines, articles, and posts say things that are different to what they actually say in order to try to support the notion that the term "blue wave" was meant to imply absolutely nothing unusual whatsoever, then perhaps it's worth considering that that view isn't built on as solid a foundation as you're trying to imply?
Seriously people, if you get so hung-up on a term that doesn't actually have a formal definition, but your hell bent to prove that your definition is the correct one... never mind, you can see where I'm heading here.

Quote:
This is exactly the kind of nonsense that the more fervent Trump supporters rightly get raked over the coals for on this board.
BS of a high order.

Add: I suggest you start a Blue Wave thread if you wish to discuss this further. We're off topic here.
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Old 20th November 2018, 05:20 AM   #106
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Yes, the best way to prove that you're being entirely reasonable is to straw man me in order to continue to debate something that you've already dismissed as being pointless to debate.
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Old 20th November 2018, 05:25 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Maybe everyone should simply agree it was more of a Blue Tide than a Blue Wave, and move on to more pressing matters.
The tide is the biggest of all waves. </oceanic pedant>
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Old 20th November 2018, 06:38 AM   #108
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Trump said he supports the pending prison reform bill.

That's all I got.
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Old 20th November 2018, 07:48 AM   #109
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He pronounces "Tanzania" correctly.

Considering his tendency to flub pretty much all geographical names, and the fact that nearly everyone mispronounces "Tanzania", it is kind of odd that he pronounces it as a native Tanzanian. Perhaps we should look up his birth certificate.
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Old 20th November 2018, 10:34 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
My blue eyes nicely complement his orange complexion.
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Old 20th November 2018, 12:59 PM   #111
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He's consistent. He unfailingly puts himself first. You can always count on that.
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Old 20th November 2018, 02:29 PM   #112
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He did have a couple of genuinely funny jokes at the turkey pardoning ceremony today.
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Old 20th November 2018, 04:06 PM   #113
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Hot wife complements him. Like a ying and yang thing, earth/sun, hideous/beautiful.
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Old 20th November 2018, 04:09 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by Mark F View Post
Trump said he supports the pending prison reform bill.

That's all I got.
The First Step Act seems like a really good idea to me and Trump's support could definitely provide political cover for Republican senators who want to vote for it but are worried about looking too liberal. I won't hesitate to give him credit if it makes it into law.

Last edited by Civet; 20th November 2018 at 04:11 PM.
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Old 20th November 2018, 08:39 PM   #115
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He thinks murdering enemies of the state/people (who work for WaPo) is fine, I think it's disgusting. Complementary!
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Old 20th November 2018, 09:34 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
He brings people like this out of the woodwork so we can see them for what they are.
"People like this". Hilarious.
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Old 22nd November 2018, 09:03 PM   #117
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I know others have noted, but couldn't we get the OP Title changed to compliment?

I have worryingly pleasant visions of something having to do with a certain Hannibal, fava beans and a nice Chianti.
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Old 22nd November 2018, 09:15 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
I know others have noted, but couldn't we get the OP Title changed to compliment?

I have worryingly pleasant visions of something having to do with a certain Hannibal, fava beans and a nice Chianti.
I think hard liquor pairs well with Trump. Lots and lots of hard liquor.
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Old 22nd November 2018, 09:31 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I agree: Enough. Who cares whether it was a 'wave', a 'tsunami', a 'tide', or a freaking ripple? The numbers are the numbers. 232-200 in the House with 3 seats still outstanding. Some people argue just to argue.
How many times have the Democrats had the numbers in the House only to do nothing with it?
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Old 22nd November 2018, 09:33 PM   #120
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
How many times have the Democrats had the numbers in the House only to do nothing with it?
I fail to see how that has anything to do with my post.
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