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Old 9th April 2019, 02:11 AM   #121
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I think the day may come in the future when the jobs disappear, but the current reality is that for every job that disappears, more than one new job is created. The government's monthly employment statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows this. People have been predicting this for years (this youtube video was made almost 5 years ago, and today there are over 10 million more people with jobs in the USA than when the video was published.

The day may come, but it hasn't come yet. (Even if some people are being replaced by robots, yet on net balance more jobs are being created each month than are eliminated.)
This only tells part of the story. Employment growth is not due to technology replacing old jobs with new ones but because of the relentless push to increase the destructive consumption of this planet at ever increasing rates.

It also ignores the replacing of middle class jobs with lower paid part time work and the stagnation of wages.
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Old 9th April 2019, 02:15 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Elephant in the room:

Would undocumented immigrants and asylum seekers be entitled to this income?
I would consider it necessary to pay it to any legal resident.

Reason being that anyone with an UBI can afford to take on lower-paying jobs, which means that it will be next to impossible for those on the outside of UBI to make a living wage.
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Old 9th April 2019, 03:22 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
That's a matter of policy. I personally would only be offering UBI to citizens which would include immigrants who took on citizenship. As for the illegals, that would be a subject for another thread.
Oh no, I think it's a crucial question. I would want a clear answer before deciding whether I want to support it, not a "we'll figure out the details later."

As far as it relates to UBI, I think it is very much on-topic.
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Old 9th April 2019, 03:31 AM   #124
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Oh no, I think it's a crucial question. I would want a clear answer before deciding whether I want to support it, not a "we'll figure out the details later."

As far as it relates to UBI, I think it is very much on-topic.
It seems there's a rather obvious solution, though. Undocumented illegal immigrants would not receive UBI because there would be no documented means for them to receive it. If they don't exist in the system, the system can't pay them.

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Old 9th April 2019, 03:38 AM   #125
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Old 9th April 2019, 03:58 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Not everybody is as big a slacker as you are. Most would rather have a better standard of living than would be afforded by a UBI and would seek additional sources of income.
Most people are bigger slackers than I am. I am just more honest about it.

I work because I have to. I have no choice. Given that I have to spend 40 hours a week doing things I wouldn't do unless you paid me for it, I try and find things that I don't hate doing, and that are the "most productive", i.e. highest paying. However, if you said to me, "Or, you can spend your time however you want, and we'll make sure your basic needs are met." then the first time my boss ticked me off, I would say buzz off and walk out the door.
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Old 9th April 2019, 04:03 AM   #127
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
There's literally no downside to UBI. How do you pay for it? By the complete and utter elimination of all other forms of welfare.
Surely that's impossible.

A very small percentage of people are gathering welfare right now. There's a lot of overhead. What shall we say? A factor of 2? A factor of 3? In other words, for every dollar of welfare, there's two that go to the bureaucracy that administers welfare? Ok. So UBI comes in and the overhead goes down, a lot That means we could provide the welfare to 3 times as many people as we do now, right?

I don't think that's enough for "universal".

We'd pay for it by taking money from the people who choose to work, and giving it to those who choose not to.

ETA: Oh, and since everyone gets it, everyone who pays in gets a fraction back. Send in the money. The government gives some of it back to you, and some of it to the guy next door, and keeps some of it, because it's not like there's zero overhead even in the "everyone gets a check" version of the system.

Last edited by Meadmaker; 9th April 2019 at 04:07 AM.
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Old 9th April 2019, 04:42 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Oh no, I think it's a crucial question. I would want a clear answer before deciding whether I want to support it, not a "we'll figure out the details later."

As far as it relates to UBI, I think it is very much on-topic.
Why is this such a deal breaker for you? Do you have the same concerns over the eligibility of non-citizens to social security or welfare?
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Old 9th April 2019, 04:45 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Most people are bigger slackers than I am. I am just more honest about it.

I work because I have to. I have no choice. Given that I have to spend 40 hours a week doing things I wouldn't do unless you paid me for it, I try and find things that I don't hate doing, and that are the "most productive", i.e. highest paying. However, if you said to me, "Or, you can spend your time however you want, and we'll make sure your basic needs are met." then the first time my boss ticked me off, I would say buzz off and walk out the door.
Call me skeptical. I seriously doubt that you would be satisfied with a rudimentary standard of living if you had the opportunity to increase your income.

Yes, you don't have to accept below subsistence wages or abusive employers if you have a UBI. That is one of the aims of UBI.
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Old 9th April 2019, 04:51 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
UBI is an idea I have been hearing more about over the last few years, and I'm curious about the perspectives of the forum on this issue.

Personally I like the idea. Perhaps it's because I have a basically optimistic view of people, but I think that in general UBI will function as an investment in our human capital. People will spend at least some portion of that money on bettering themselves, whether through education (of themselves or their children), investment, entrepreneurship, and even basic things like nutrition and healthcare. Even uses that at first seem like just paying people to be lazy, like spending that money on time saving devices or services (dishwashers? daycare?) will in reality make them more productive at whatever their pursuits happen to be.

Will some of that money be spent on drugs and video games? Sure, but I think it likely to be a small percentage.

So, to me it seems to be an investment in our human capital. And unlike other government programs, the people making the decisions about how best to make that investment will actually be those with the most knowledge about each individual case: the people themselves.

With the above I'm simply trying to express my perspective rather than to argue the case for UBI, which perhaps will happen in the thread itself. For now I'm curious about other people's views, both positive and negative.
Nobody is objecting to that.

The question is, however, could this money be spent in a more direct and thus better way? Instead of giving out handouts to everyone, how about making education more available or even free?

UBI is a nice idea, but unless it serves its purposes better than the next alternative it should remain just an idea. It's hell to remove it once it's established as a right you see.

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Old 9th April 2019, 04:53 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Surely that's impossible.

A very small percentage of people are gathering welfare right now. There's a lot of overhead. What shall we say? A factor of 2? A factor of 3? In other words, for every dollar of welfare, there's two that go to the bureaucracy that administers welfare? Ok. So UBI comes in and the overhead goes down, a lot That means we could provide the welfare to 3 times as many people as we do now, right?

I don't think that's enough for "universal".

We'd pay for it by taking money from the people who choose to work, and giving it to those who choose not to.

ETA: Oh, and since everyone gets it, everyone who pays in gets a fraction back. Send in the money. The government gives some of it back to you, and some of it to the guy next door, and keeps some of it, because it's not like there's zero overhead even in the "everyone gets a check" version of the system.
Welfare is such a broad term, I'm not sure what any of ne person is considering part of it.
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Old 9th April 2019, 04:57 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
.... However, if you said to me, "Or, you can spend your time however you want, and we'll make sure your basic needs are met." then the first time my boss ticked me off, I would say buzz off and walk out the door.
One of the best reasons for UBI I have so far seen in this thread
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Old 9th April 2019, 05:33 AM   #133
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Most people are bigger slackers than I am. I am just more honest about it.

I work because I have to. I have no choice. Given that I have to spend 40 hours a week doing things I wouldn't do unless you paid me for it, I try and find things that I don't hate doing, and that are the "most productive", i.e. highest paying. However, if you said to me, "Or, you can spend your time however you want, and we'll make sure your basic needs are met." then the first time my boss ticked me off, I would say buzz off and walk out the door.
And never get laid again...
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Old 9th April 2019, 05:33 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I would consider it necessary to pay it to any legal resident.

Reason being that anyone with an UBI can afford to take on lower-paying jobs, which means that it will be next to impossible for those on the outside of UBI to make a living wage.
Do you get rid of minimum wage if you have a UBI?

It would make sense to, but I have a strong feeling that's not what would actually happen.
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Old 9th April 2019, 05:54 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Why is this such a deal breaker for you? Do you have the same concerns over the eligibility of non-citizens to social security or welfare?
You are moving the goalposts. I didn't say "non-citizens", I'm specifically talking about illegal immigrants.
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Old 9th April 2019, 05:54 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Do you get rid of minimum wage if you have a UBI?
It seems to me that the logic of the concept says yes. If everybody is assured enough income to survive then there is no sense in setting a minimum wage sufficient to provide enough income to survive.

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Old 9th April 2019, 05:55 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
You are moving the goalposts. I didn't say "non-citizens", I'm specifically talking about illegal immigrants.
Turning the question around, then, how would UBI be paid to illegal immigrants?

Dave
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:04 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Most people are bigger slackers than I am. I am just more honest about it.
That's a very interesting assertion, independent of UBI.

The implication is that we waste non-renewable resources while making people unhappier.

What you are saying is that a substantial part of the work-force would be happy to live at or below the poverty line. Why aren't people working part time or retiring left and right?
Is there something about the social structure that stops people pursuing happiness? If so then we need to do something about that.

Maybe a UBI is not the way to go but how about a 20-hour work-week or 6 months paid vacation. Or retiring at 40?
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:23 AM   #139
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Just another way that UBI will lead to runaway inflation.
Please explain one of these ways.
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:38 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
Please explain one of these ways.
*Very slowly* If business people know that everybody is going to suddenly have more money to spend, they will raise prices.

Now someone is going to argue that this isn't technically speaking "inflation" in the literal Economics 101 sense, but the end result is the same.
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:40 AM   #141
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
*Very slowly* If business people know that everybody is going to suddenly have more money to spend, they will raise prices.

Now someone is going to argue that this isn't technically speaking "inflation" in the literal Economics 101 sense, but the end result is the same.
*Extremely slowly* That is hogwash.
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:41 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
*Extremely slowly* That is hogwash.
No... it... isn't. It already happens. The example I gave earlier how the rent goes up in military towns at pretty much an exact 1:1 ratio with BAH rates without anyone even pretending that's not what they are doing wasn't something I pulled from thin air.
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:44 AM   #143
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Really? We have an entire banking system based on the idea that getting money from someone else can make you more productive. And it has worked incredibly well to multiply the wealth of society.
That rather dishonestly ignores the small fact that when a bank gives you money you're expected to give it back plus some.
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:47 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
You are moving the goalposts. I didn't say "non-citizens", I'm specifically talking about illegal immigrants.
OK then. Do you have the same concerns over the eligibility of illegal immigrants to social security or welfare?
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:51 AM   #145
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
If business people know that everybody is going to suddenly have more money to spend, they will raise prices.
GOTO 118
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:52 AM   #146
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This is starting to sound more and more like the argument the hardcore Pirate Bay / File Sharing enthusiasts use just blown up to cover all of society and approached from the other direction.

"Don't you see man, just make all media free and let people share and copy stuff without restriction. That way art, true art, is only going to be made who truly want to make it."

It's the same argument. If we "get rid" of the people who only make art to make money, the people left would just happily give it away for free so society will have all the art it needs with none of the cost and this will all magically balance out in the end because reasons.
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:54 AM   #147
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Okay then you explain to me what economic magic made my rent go up the exact dollar amount my BAH was raised every year for 20 years in the Navy, complete with a letter from my landlord literally saying "Hey we saw your BAH went up so we're raising your rent" in so many words.

Basically "Don't worry about having more money, we can trust businesses to not take advantage of that."
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:57 AM   #148
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Do you get rid of minimum wage if you have a UBI?

It would make sense to, but I have a strong feeling that's not what would actually happen.
That's my feeling for all the "Oh don't worry, you see this is gonna work because UBI is going to replace this and this and this and that..."

*Laughs* No it goddamn isn't. No government program designed to replace multiple other government programs on this size or scale every accomplished anything but "Okay now we have the new program... and all the old ones."
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:58 AM   #149
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Okay then you explain to me what economic magic made my rent go up the exact dollar amount my BAH was raised every year for 20 years in the Navy, complete with a letter from my landlord literally saying "Hey we saw your BAH went up so we're raising your rent" in so many words.

Basically "Don't worry about having more money, we can trust businesses to not take advantage of that."
Since that post went straight over your head I doubt that I could give you an explanation that you would understand.

Basically, any redistribution of incomes will result in a redistribution of prices. Some will go up and some will go down.
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Old 9th April 2019, 06:58 AM   #150
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
*Very slowly* If business people know that everybody is going to suddenly have more money to spend, they will raise prices.
True, so there's an initial hike in prices when the system's introduced. If it's done intelligently, this is taken into account in setting the level of UBI so that once it's happened it's still adequate for a basic living. And that's it; there are no further implications, because the system is then up and running. So, although it may well lead to short term inflation, it won't lead to runaway inflation.

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
The example I gave earlier how the rent goes up in military towns at pretty much an exact 1:1 ratio with BAH rates without anyone even pretending that's not what they are doing wasn't something I pulled from thin air.
True, but it's a very specialised case. BAH rates specify an amount of money that can only be spent on one commodity, so there's an effective price-fixing cartel in operation around that specific commodity. UBI involves giving people money they can spend on anything; and, yes, that'll lead to across-the-board price rises, but as I pointed out long ago upthread, that will impact higher earners more than people living only on UBI, leading to a transfer of spending power from higher to lower earners and not much else.

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Old 9th April 2019, 06:59 AM   #151
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Really? We have an entire banking system based on the idea that getting money from someone else can make you more productive.
No, we do not. We have a banking system based on the idea that borrowing money for some productive scheme, and paying back the loan with interest, will make you more productive.
Quote:
And it has worked incredibly well to multiply the wealth of society.
I'm not sure your "banking" scheme has worked incredibly well anywhere it's been tried.

But the actual banking scheme we actually have has indeed worked incredibly well to multiply the wealth of society.
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Old 9th April 2019, 07:01 AM   #152
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Since that post went straight over your head I doubt that I could give you an explanation that you would understand.

Basically, any redistribution of incomes will result in a redistribution of prices. Some will go up and some will go down.
That great because "Oh you're getting the short end of the stick but don't worry... other people aren't" is great because you can just lie and tell everyone that.

I'm seriously amazed that the hippie progressives are advocating a "Just trust business to not take advantage of this, and the invisible hand of the market will take care of it if they do" defense.
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Old 9th April 2019, 07:03 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
No... it... isn't. It already happens. The example I gave earlier how the rent goes up in military towns at pretty much an exact 1:1 ratio with BAH rates without anyone even pretending that's not what they are doing wasn't something I pulled from thin air.
There are a few factors in play here which aren't applicable more broadly. For housing around a military base, both the supply and demand are pretty inelastic: neither changes much in size. Decreasing housing prices won't attract more customers because the size of the military base is fixed by other factors. Increasing the amount of money that military personnel spend won't increase housing supply either, because you won't attract more military personnel to the base because of housing prices. That inelasticity is what leads to a 1-to-1 increase in rents with BAH rates.

But very few goods are anywhere close to that inelastic. And even most housing isn't that inelastic, with most people having much more flexibility about where they choose to live. Rents in some areas might very well go up because of UBI, but they might also drop elsewhere. And it's not even obvious where it will rise and where it will drop. Do you bid up prices in the city because more people can afford to live there? Or do prices drop because people don't need the city jobs and head for cheaper places to live?

Overall, if UBI is funded through taxes and not by printing money, I don't think it will have a major effect on inflation. But that doesn't mean it won't have any other serious problems.
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Old 9th April 2019, 07:03 AM   #154
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Seems to me that the people who work the ****tiest jobs get paid the lowest wage.
Not true. Some ****** jobs pay a lot.

The jobs that tend to pay little are the ones that require labor but not skill.
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Old 9th April 2019, 07:05 AM   #155
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
No... it... isn't. It already happens. The example I gave earlier how the rent goes up in military towns at pretty much an exact 1:1 ratio with BAH rates without anyone even pretending that's not what they are doing wasn't something I pulled from thin air.
Happens to college tuition, too.
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Old 9th April 2019, 07:09 AM   #156
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
That's my feeling for all the "Oh don't worry, you see this is gonna work because UBI is going to replace this and this and this and that..."

*Laughs* No it goddamn isn't. No government program designed to replace multiple other government programs on this size or scale every accomplished anything but "Okay now we have the new program... and all the old ones."
And... that's one of those big problems with UBI I mentioned in my previous posts. Replacing other forms of welfare with UBI would require a major reduction in government bureaucracy. And that's pretty damned appealing to me. But for the same reason, I don't think it will happen. Those government employees who administer those programs won't just smile and turn in their resignations as those programs unwind. They'll fight tooth and nail to keep the gravy train moving. They will find a reason why UBI alone doesn't suffice.
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Old 9th April 2019, 07:11 AM   #157
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Yes, UBI should remove the need for minimum wage or rent control, which should help ease housing shortages in highly desirable locations.

But what UBI won't undo is differences in living costs by location - in fact, it might make it incredibly attractive to move to places that are great places to live but with little work ... which in turn will help stimulate the local economy, creating new jobs.

And it would definitely slow urbanization, something Conservatives should be able to get behind.
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Old 9th April 2019, 07:12 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Not true. Some ****** jobs pay a lot.

The jobs that tend to pay little are the ones that require labor but not skill.
One of those high paying ****** jobs that intrigues me is crime scene cleanup. It's actually relatively low skill (you don't need a degree), but it's... unpleasant. A lot of people can't handle it, or aren't willing to do it. And so it has to pay well in order to attract people. You're paying a premium not for skill but for tolerance.
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Old 9th April 2019, 07:13 AM   #159
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Yes, UBI should remove the need for minimum wage or rent control, which should help ease housing shortages in highly desirable locations.
It's not enough to remove the need for them. They have to be actually removed. And I'm apparently not alone in thinking that, needed or not, stuff like that won't go away even if we pass UBI.
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Old 9th April 2019, 07:15 AM   #160
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
It's not enough to remove the need for them. They have to be actually removed. And I'm apparently not alone in thinking that, needed or not, stuff like that won't go away even if we pass UBI.
well, these regulations are done by the states, whereas a UBI would of course be Federal.
So you have to vote with your feet if you don't like the rules, something UBI makes easier to do.
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