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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 9th August 2022, 02:37 PM   #3001
SpitfireIX
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
In fact, as this war continues, I think it will be more likely that we'll see growing objections to support for Ukraine, from the left.

It's already happening. From National Review:
Which Biden administration official is leaking to the New York Times’ Tom Friedman that the White House doesn’t trust Volodymyr Zelensky?
The timing could not be worse. Dear reader: The Ukraine war is not over. And privately, U.S. officials are a lot more concerned about Ukraine’s leadership than they are letting on. There is deep mistrust between the White House and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky — considerably more than has been reported.

And there is funny business going on in Kyiv. On July 17, Zelensky fired his country’s prosecutor general and the leader of its domestic intelligence agency — the most significant shake-up in his government since the Russian invasion in February. It would be the equivalent of Biden firing Merrick Garland and Bill Burns on the same day. But I have still not seen any reporting that convincingly explains what that was all about. It is as if we don’t want to look too closely under the hood in Kyiv for fear of what corruption or antics we might see, when we have invested so much there. (More on the dangers of that another day.)
Your mileage may vary, but I see two possible motives here. Possibility one is that the Biden administration just wants the Ukraine-Russia war to end, and Zelensky isn’t playing ball, so the administration is getting ready to leave Zelensky hanging out to dry. Possibility two is that the administration foresees the Ukraine-Russia war going badly, and is preparing to use Zelensky as a scapegoat. They’re laying the groundwork to argue, “we did everything we could to help the Ukrainians defend themselves, but in the end, they were too incompetent, too corrupt, and too beset by infighting.”
The fact is there are isolationists in the Republican party and appeasers in the Democratic party, and they're both extremely misguided. I expect opposition to the war on the right and the left to gradually increase over time, but it will be too little, to late to help Russia.
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Old 9th August 2022, 03:50 PM   #3002
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
It's already happening. From National Review:
Which Biden administration official is leaking to the New York Times’ Tom Friedman that the White House doesn’t trust Volodymyr Zelensky?
The timing could not be worse. Dear reader: The Ukraine war is not over. And privately, U.S. officials are a lot more concerned about Ukraine’s leadership than they are letting on. There is deep mistrust between the White House and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky — considerably more than has been reported.

And there is funny business going on in Kyiv. On July 17, Zelensky fired his country’s prosecutor general and the leader of its domestic intelligence agency — the most significant shake-up in his government since the Russian invasion in February. It would be the equivalent of Biden firing Merrick Garland and Bill Burns on the same day. But I have still not seen any reporting that convincingly explains what that was all about. It is as if we don’t want to look too closely under the hood in Kyiv for fear of what corruption or antics we might see, when we have invested so much there. (More on the dangers of that another day.)
Your mileage may vary, but I see two possible motives here. Possibility one is that the Biden administration just wants the Ukraine-Russia war to end, and Zelensky isn’t playing ball, so the administration is getting ready to leave Zelensky hanging out to dry. Possibility two is that the administration foresees the Ukraine-Russia war going badly, and is preparing to use Zelensky as a scapegoat. They’re laying the groundwork to argue, “we did everything we could to help the Ukrainians defend themselves, but in the end, they were too incompetent, too corrupt, and too beset by infighting.”
The fact is there are isolationists in the Republican party and appeasers in the Democratic party, and they're both extremely misguided. I expect opposition to the war on the right and the left to gradually increase over time, but it will be too little, to late to help Russia.
The article you quote is pretty speculative soup, i.e. thin. Heck, even transparent. Look at the bottom of that pot and you'll see a lame attempt to spread alarm and despondency. Note how our wee author wants to attribute only shabby deceitfulness to Biden -- but then Mr. Wee may not be able to think in any other terms.

The west is backing Ukraine, and that means public opinion is backing Ukraine. Are people enjoying the war? Yes. Why deny it? Why shouldnt decent people grow fierce and glad to see a plug ugly like Putler taking a licking?

Any western government that turns againt Ukraine will be rejected by its people, and will fall. Good. There is far, far too much at stake to abandon this fight.
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Old 9th August 2022, 03:53 PM   #3003
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
It's already happening. From National Review:
Which Biden administration official is leaking to the New York Times’ Tom Friedman that the White House doesn’t trust Volodymyr Zelensky?
The timing could not be worse. Dear reader: The Ukraine war is not over. And privately, U.S. officials are a lot more concerned about Ukraine’s leadership than they are letting on. There is deep mistrust between the White House and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky — considerably more than has been reported.

And there is funny business going on in Kyiv. On July 17, Zelensky fired his country’s prosecutor general and the leader of its domestic intelligence agency — the most significant shake-up in his government since the Russian invasion in February. It would be the equivalent of Biden firing Merrick Garland and Bill Burns on the same day. But I have still not seen any reporting that convincingly explains what that was all about. It is as if we don’t want to look too closely under the hood in Kyiv for fear of what corruption or antics we might see, when we have invested so much there. (More on the dangers of that another day.)
Your mileage may vary, but I see two possible motives here. Possibility one is that the Biden administration just wants the Ukraine-Russia war to end, and Zelensky isn’t playing ball, so the administration is getting ready to leave Zelensky hanging out to dry. Possibility two is that the administration foresees the Ukraine-Russia war going badly, and is preparing to use Zelensky as a scapegoat. They’re laying the groundwork to argue, “we did everything we could to help the Ukrainians defend themselves, but in the end, they were too incompetent, too corrupt, and too beset by infighting.”
The fact is there are isolationists in the Republican party and appeasers in the Democratic party, and they're both extremely misguided. I expect opposition to the war on the right and the left to gradually increase over time, but it will be too little, to late to help Russia.
Uhhh, the link in that article to the NY times that supposedly goes to "Which Biden administration official is leaking to the New York Times’ Tom Friedman" actually goes to a story titled:

"Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Is Utterly Reckless".... so uhh wtf? Its paywalled so I cant actually read it.

Last edited by lobosrul5; 9th August 2022 at 03:55 PM.
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Old 9th August 2022, 04:08 PM   #3004
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Uhhh, the link in that article to the NY times that supposedly goes to "Which Biden administration official is leaking to the New York Times’ Tom Friedman" actually goes to a story titled:

"Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Is Utterly Reckless".... so uhh wtf? Its paywalled so I cant actually read it.

I also thought the link was wrong at first, but from checking other stories reporting on this the paragraphs quoted are actually in that commentary. I quoted from National Review rather than directly from the NYT because of the paywall, but I included the link for anyone who is able to read the original. And Friedman is supposedly very close to Biden; he is reported to have had a private lunch with him recently.

That said, I don't necessarily agree with the NR author's speculation, though I wouldn't rule out either suggestion. I think that the leaker is most likely a disgruntled appeaser who is exaggerating the situation. Further, the US didn't approve of everything Britain did during WWII, but we didn't cut off Lend-Lease because of it.
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Old 9th August 2022, 04:18 PM   #3005
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
<edit to add> The two simultaneous explosions are heard a second and a half apart, so one was 400-500 metres further away than the other. Not secondary explosions from one fire.
Actually, I want to walk that back a bit. Going frame by frame the left hand explosion comes first but, just one frame later, there's a very diffuse but absolutely vast yellow flash centred on what becomes the second explosion. I think the left hand explosion ignited a cloud of fuel vapour that must have been around a kilometer across and that set off the right hand explosion.
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Old 9th August 2022, 05:08 PM   #3006
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Interesting. I had a look at the layout on Google maps earlier and I noticed both the features he thinks were hit. One of the two is awfully close to housing, as he mentions. It was clearly surrounded by an embankment but even so it wouldn't be a good place to have been.
Nobody tell Amnesty international that. They'll have a field day blaming Ukraine.
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Old 9th August 2022, 07:13 PM   #3007
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Apparently the NYT has quoted a Ukrainian official as saying that they wouldn't disclose what weapon was used, but that it was entirely of Ukrainian manufacture.
An explosive bungeed to a drone could be described as a weapon of Ukrainian manufacture. Remember the Navy Day attack in Sevastopol, supposedly launched from within Crimea? Same thing may have happened here.

Tip: If you want to bypass a paywall, uploading and archiving the article sometimes works or, if your lazy like me, wait for someone else to do it.

The NYT article...the Freidman one with the Pelosi title.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220808...wan-china.html
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Old Yesterday, 04:37 AM   #3008
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Originally Posted by https://tass.com/politics/1481067
VOLGOGRAD, July 17. /TASS/. Ukraine’s leadership will immediately be faced with a doomsday should it venture to attack Crimea, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday.

"Some ecstatic bloody clowns, who pop up there with some statements now and then, are trying to threatens us, I mean attacks on Crimea and so on," he said at a meeting with WWII veterans during his trip to Russia’s southern city of Volgograd. According to Medvedev, consequences of such Ukraine’s actions are quite obvious.

"Should anything of the kind happen, they will be faced with a doomsday, very quick and tough, immediately. There will be no avoiding it. But they keep on provoking the general situation by such statements," he stressed.

To use the words of the person who shared this quote


It's lucky, then, that Saki airfield wasn't attacked and it was all just an accident.
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Old Yesterday, 05:05 AM   #3009
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More empty threats implying the use of nukes. Yawn.
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Old Yesterday, 05:47 AM   #3010
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Actually, I want to walk that back a bit. Going frame by frame the left hand explosion comes first but, just one frame later, there's a very diffuse but absolutely vast yellow flash centred on what becomes the second explosion. I think the left hand explosion ignited a cloud of fuel vapour that must have been around a kilometer across and that set off the right hand explosion.
That doesn't sound right. Both explosions match in terms of size and appearance. Your scenario should produce two different looking explosions.
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Old Yesterday, 06:19 AM   #3011
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
More empty threats implying the use of nukes. Yawn.
indeed:

https://twitter.com/OChirca/status/1...FxvitBArYbCnKA

Quote:
Time to dust off this old photo

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Old Yesterday, 09:12 AM   #3012
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
That doesn't sound right. Both explosions match in terms of size and appearance. Your scenario should produce two different looking explosions.
I agree it's very odd. Can't quite figure it out. A cloud of fuel vapour that big burning in a single video frame probably would have been like a bomb detonation itself.

Now I'm wondering if in fact there was a tenuous cloud of smoke or dust which glowed with the flash of the second explosion. I'm really far from certain.
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Old Yesterday, 10:43 AM   #3013
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Russia-Ukraine live news: Kyiv says warplanes destroyed in Crimea

Quote:
Ukraine’s air force says nine Russian warplanes were destroyed by explosions that rocked an airbase in Russia-annexed Crimea on Tuesday.
The blasts, which Russia says were caused by detonations of stored ammunition, killed one person and wounded 14 others, according to the Black Sea peninsula’s governor.
That's gonna leave a mark.
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Old Yesterday, 10:45 AM   #3014
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Have the Russians just... not noticed? That Ukraine can hit targets in Crimea? Why on earth would they be basing planes there?
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Old Yesterday, 11:18 AM   #3015
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Have the Russians just... not noticed? That Ukraine can hit targets in Crimea? Why on earth would they be basing planes there?
It was 200 km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory so they probably thought it was safe.

Any of the option: special forces, partisans, or missile attacks are bad news for Russia in different ways.

Also Russia's claims that no planes were damaged is not going to help their credibility

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...rfQbALnl9Utgnw

As presumably this video and the one below were filmed by Russians on the scene.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...rfQbALnl9Utgnw. Burned out cars parked 300m from the nearest explosion. View to the end to see the one impaled by a metal beam
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Old Yesterday, 11:23 AM   #3016
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
It was 200 km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory so they probably thought it was safe.

Any of the option: special forces, partisans, or missile attacks are bad news for Russia in different ways.
I would think they would hope it is a missile as Ukraine only has a very limited supply of former soviet missiles that have that kind of range.
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Old Yesterday, 12:19 PM   #3017
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Some satellite images have been posted in Twitter which appear to show quite a few damaged or destroyed aircraft at the Russian airbase:

https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897
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Old Yesterday, 12:37 PM   #3018
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Originally Posted by ohms View Post
HARM to Ukraine was confirmed by the US DoD

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/08/p...gon/index.html

No idea whether they are being launched from Ukrainian Su-25s or whether a ground launch vehicle was cobbled together like the UK did for their Brimstone missiles.
Some details about HARM missiles and issues around deploying them:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKzm-Qb5oLg

One of the reasons I didn't think we gave HARM to Ukraine is simply the issue of how Soviet-designed planes could use NATO munitions. I was wrong, although the issue of compatibility is still definitely real, and is a barrier to use. One possibility this video discusses is possible adapters from the Polish air force, which has Soviet planes but as part of NATO would obviously want to be able to use NATO munitions. Getting a physical adapter is pretty simple, the more challenging aspect is the electronics interface, but it's doable. It's unlikely Ukraine made such an adapter since the start of the war, but Poland could have made them quite some time ago, and then given them to Ukraine recently.
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Old Yesterday, 12:45 PM   #3019
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Originally Posted by ohms View Post
Some satellite images have been posted in Twitter which appear to show quite a few damaged or destroyed aircraft at the Russian airbase:

https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897
Looks consistent with what we have seen elsewhere from the ground
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Old Yesterday, 01:05 PM   #3020
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
It's already happening. From National Review:
Which Biden administration official is leaking to the New York Times’ Tom Friedman that the White House doesn’t trust Volodymyr Zelensky?
The timing could not be worse. Dear reader: The Ukraine war is not over. And privately, U.S. officials are a lot more concerned about Ukraine’s leadership than they are letting on. There is deep mistrust between the White House and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky — considerably more than has been reported.

And there is funny business going on in Kyiv. On July 17, Zelensky fired his country’s prosecutor general and the leader of its domestic intelligence agency — the most significant shake-up in his government since the Russian invasion in February. It would be the equivalent of Biden firing Merrick Garland and Bill Burns on the same day. But I have still not seen any reporting that convincingly explains what that was all about. It is as if we don’t want to look too closely under the hood in Kyiv for fear of what corruption or antics we might see, when we have invested so much there. (More on the dangers of that another day.)
Your mileage may vary, but I see two possible motives here. Possibility one is that the Biden administration just wants the Ukraine-Russia war to end, and Zelensky isn’t playing ball, so the administration is getting ready to leave Zelensky hanging out to dry. Possibility two is that the administration foresees the Ukraine-Russia war going badly, and is preparing to use Zelensky as a scapegoat. They’re laying the groundwork to argue, “we did everything we could to help the Ukrainians defend themselves, but in the end, they were too incompetent, too corrupt, and too beset by infighting.”
The fact is there are isolationists in the Republican party and appeasers in the Democratic party, and they're both extremely misguided. I expect opposition to the war on the right and the left to gradually increase over time, but it will be too little, to late to help Russia.
Yesterday Katnyrn van de Heuvel, ex editor of the Nation, wrote what amounted to a plea for appeasment in the WAPO, and blamed everybody but Putin for what is happening in the Ukraine.. She seems to be aiming to take her Late Husband, Stephan Cohen, as the American's Left foremost apologist for Putin.
And I have to note the National Review is pretty quiet about the GOP Putin fanboys. Funny, that.......
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Old Yesterday, 01:06 PM   #3021
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Have the Russians just... not noticed? That Ukraine can hit targets in Crimea? Why on earth would they be basing planes there?
They grossly understimated the Ukarinain's ablity...again.
For some reason the Crimea seems to encourage Military incompetence...and not just by the Russians.
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Old Yesterday, 01:56 PM   #3022
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
They grossly understimated the Ukarinain's ablity...again.
For some reason the Crimea seems to encourage Military incompetence...and not just by the Russians.
Must be all those beaches...
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Old Yesterday, 03:07 PM   #3023
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Must be all those beaches...
Russian women can indeed be quite distracting.

Oh... you said bEAches. Sorry, my bad.
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Old Yesterday, 03:30 PM   #3024
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Originally Posted by ZiprHead View Post
The spokesperson for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is my new hero. I heard on a podcast that he/she reminded the Russians to only smoke in designated areas when handling munitions. I laughed out loud.
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Old Yesterday, 03:41 PM   #3025
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Must be all those beaches...
Actually, the most infamous case of Military Incomeptence in the Crimea took place inland...something to do with charging the wrong artillery positions....
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Old Yesterday, 04:02 PM   #3026
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Actually, the most infamous case of Military Incomeptence in the Crimea took place inland...something to do with charging the wrong artillery positions....

I suspect that the Russians will manage to top that before this is all over.
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Old Yesterday, 05:10 PM   #3027
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
For some reason the Crimea seems to encourage Military incompetence...and not just by the Russians.
The charge of the Flight Brigade?
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Old Yesterday, 05:13 PM   #3028
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Originally Posted by ohms View Post
Some satellite images have been posted in Twitter which appear to show quite a few damaged or destroyed aircraft at the Russian airbase:

https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897
I believe that Oryx counted 11 destroyed or damaged planes.
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Old Yesterday, 05:18 PM   #3029
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I guess if you're Russia, you have to pretty leery of setting up anti-air missiles around one of your own active airfields.
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Old Yesterday, 05:19 PM   #3030
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
I suspect that the Russians will manage to top that before this is all over.

Shirley they've already done that in the Kiev feint?
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Old Yesterday, 05:43 PM   #3031
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Putin's Russia: making history like there's no tomorrow.
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Old Yesterday, 06:15 PM   #3032
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Originally Posted by ginjawarrior View Post
Shirley they've already done that in the Kiev feint?

That wasn't in the Crimea.
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Old Yesterday, 06:36 PM   #3033
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
The charge of the Flight Brigade?
Oh, very nice. Nominated.
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Old Yesterday, 07:52 PM   #3034
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CNN is only counting 7 destroyed, but is still saying that it would be the most destructive day for Russian aircraft since World War II!

How can Putin stand all this Russian winning?
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Old Yesterday, 08:55 PM   #3035
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
I believe that Oryx counted 11 destroyed or damaged planes.
Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
CNN is only counting 7 destroyed, but is still saying that it would be the most destructive day for Russian aircraft since World War II!

How can Putin stand all this Russian winning?
It looks like at least 16 destroyed, or heavily damaged, aircraft from the pictures shown in the tweet.
Of course I'm no expert, I just count the planes in one picture, and then how many are left the next.
There's a lot of scorched spots where planes once sat in the second pictures.
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Old Today, 12:14 AM   #3036
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
It looks like at least 16 destroyed, or heavily damaged, aircraft from the pictures shown in the tweet.
Of course I'm no expert, I just count the planes in one picture, and then how many are left the next.
There's a lot of scorched spots where planes once sat in the second pictures.
Current assement by Oryx team:
- 4 Su-30SM multirole aircraft (destroyed)
- 6 Su-24M/MR strike/tactical reconnaissance aircraft (5, destroyed, 1x damaged)
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Old Today, 12:43 AM   #3037
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Excellent news.

Meanwhile according to ISW, Russia continues to make small gains on the Eastern front despite redirecting forces to the Kherson front.

Quote:
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks west of Izyum.
  • Russian forces continued limited ground assaults northeast and west of Bakhmut and likely made marginal gains in these areas.
  • Russian forces made marginal gains northwest of Donetsk City and are continuing attempts to push northwestward from current footholds on the outskirts of Donetsk City.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ment-august-10
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Old Today, 03:57 AM   #3038
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Excellent news.

Meanwhile according to ISW, Russia continues to make small gains on the Eastern front despite redirecting forces to the Kherson front.



https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ment-august-10
What's telling is Russians are depleting the east and moving troops to the south. In theory, Russia should have enough troop to keep in place in the east and reinforce the south They must losses more serious than we thought, more refusals than we thought, more desertions or a combination of the three.
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