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Tags adolf hitler , Josef Stalin , Robert Conquest , Soviet Union history , Tim Snyder , World War II history

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Old 28th March 2018, 08:54 PM   #81
Craig B
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
... The theory that best explains the famine (or at least the harvest failure leading up to it) is environmental causes, and since by point 2 above the CMA is statistically associated with security against such events (rather than the opposite) it seems more likely that the famine would've been even worse without the CMA. So maybe it's not the deaths as a result of Stalinist-style collectivization that are a category worthy of study, but the lives saved as a result of it.
That is quite ludicrous. There was no mass famine in the countries close to the USSR. Mass famine in Soviet Ukraine, but not in Poland. Famine in Belorussia, but not in then independent Lithuania. That makes the natural environment an unlikely primary cause, as environmental effects cross borders, but collectivisation didn't.

Commentators in the period are unanimous that supplies of food to urban dwellers available in shops were much lower following collectivisation than in the previous period. Herds of livestock were devastated. Rationing was introduced for urban residents, and remained in place for several years.
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Old 29th March 2018, 05:03 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Could we at least see some sources that might back up this claim?
Natural Disaster and Human Actions in the Soviet Famine of 1931-1933, Mark B. Tauger.
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Old 29th March 2018, 05:12 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
That is quite ludicrous.


Quote:
There was no mass famine in the countries close to the USSR. Mass famine in Soviet Ukraine, but not in Poland. Famine in Belorussia, but not in then independent Lithuania. That makes the natural environment an unlikely primary cause, as environmental effects cross borders, but collectivisation didn't.
Yes exactly, large harvest failures by environmental conditions occurred throughout all of Europe in 1932, but collectivization stopped at the border. Hence it's unlikely that collectivization, as opposed to environmental conditions, led to the harvest failure in the USSR.

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Commentators in the period are unanimous that supplies of food to urban dwellers available in shops were much lower following collectivisation than in the previous period. Herds of livestock were devastated. Rationing was introduced for urban residents, and remained in place for several years.
Nonsense, rationing was introduced in response to the 1928-1929 famine. It was this famine that became the impetus for increased collectivization/mechanization of agriculture in the first place. And I don't give a crap what your "commentators" (read as "anti-communist propagandists") say, if you can't back up your claims with primary sources then they have no credibility.
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Old 29th March 2018, 06:32 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Natural Disaster and Human Actions in the Soviet Famine of 1931-1933, Mark B. Tauger.
It's a good idea to actually read Tauger and not just what your tankie buddies claim about his writings. He argues that the weather played a crucial role in harvest failure (he emphasizes this a lot more than authors with comparable views, such as Davies and Wheatcroft), and that the famine was not intentional. He does NOT argue that Soviet policy was not the cause of the famine.

"Although the low 1932 harvest may have been a mitigating circumstance, the regime was still responsible for the deprivation and suffering of the Soviet populace in the 1930s. The data presented here provide a more precise measure of the consequences of collectivization and forced industrialization than has previously been available; if anything, these data show that the effects of those policies were worse than has been assumed. They also, however, indicate that the famine was real, the result of a failure of economic policy, of the 'revolution from above', rather than a 'successful' nationality policy against Ukrainians or other ethnic groups. The data presented here should contribute to a reevaluation not only of the famine, but also of the Soviet economy in the first Five-Year Plan and afterward."

- Mark B. Tauger, 'The 1932 Harvest and the famine of 1933' (I have quoted the concluding remarks at p. 89)

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Old 29th March 2018, 06:44 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
I realize you probably just threw that out there without much thought, but as someone fond of nihilism I'd object to describing Nazism (or its campaigns) as "nihilistic". They were nothing of the sort, it's just Nazis appropriating a philosophical doctrine for their own purposes while turning it upside-down to the point it becomes completely unrecognizable - somewhat the same thing they did with "socialism". A nihilist who's driven by concepts like nation, race, traditional family roles, authoritarianism, etc is not a nihilist at all by even a long shot.
The extermination campaigns perpetrated by the Nazis were not the result of any appropriated philosophical doctrine, but of the fact that Hitler had a worldview characterized essentialy entirely a perpetual struggle between races/nationalities/peoples. As far as any serious biographer can tell, this struggle was to him the only truth, and it was all a matter of emerging supreme or being destroyed, and his role as FŁhrer was entirely about leading Germany in this struggle.

The extent to which this negates all traditional, conventional and widely held views of morality, the purpose of life, finding meaning in existence, etc, makes "nihilism" an appropraite moniker. I am not claiming that this worldview was the result of a serious engagement with e.g. Nietzsche's thought.
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Old 29th March 2018, 06:45 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
It's not that complicated. If you die due to socio-economic circumstances under capitalism then it doesn't count as a kill by the regime, but if you do under socialism then it does. As you mention, people were dying at even greater rates before Mao's rule, but you only get counted as a "victim of X" when the X is socialism or communism. That's basically all there is to it. If you apply the same standards of counting deaths to capitalism as to socialism you arrive at a figure in the billions of victims of capitalism.
The proper response to crude oversimplifications like counting people as "victim of X" is to engage with the source material, contextualize and provide nuance.

It is not to engage in crude oversimplifications of your own.
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Old 29th March 2018, 07:41 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post

The theory that best explains the famine (or at least the harvest failure leading up to it) is environmental causes, and since by point 2 above the CMA is statistically associated with security against such events (rather than the opposite) it seems more likely that the famine would've been even worse without the CMA. So maybe it's not the deaths as a result of Stalinist-style collectivization that are a category worthy of study, but the lives saved as a result of it.
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Could we at least see some sources that might back up this claim?
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Natural Disaster and Human Actions in the Soviet Famine of 1931-1933, Mark B. Tauger.
Perhaps I wasn't clear enough in my request. I wasn't asking for a source that disagrees with Robert Conquest's take on Stalin, but the idea that Stalin's collectivization saved lives rather than led to greater loss of life. I have now highlighted those bits I find most dubious.

I have not read the particular book you cite, but I very much doubt that it says that Stalin's collectivization saved lives.

Looking through reviews of the book, it seems as though it merely argues that the famine was not intentional, but that Stalinist collectivization was unpopular, faced resistance and that some of these effects compounded an already serious situation that was largely the result of natural causes.
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Old 29th March 2018, 07:49 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Looking through reviews of the book, it seems as though it merely argues that the famine was not intentional, but that Stalinist collectivization was unpopular, faced resistance and that some of these effects compounded an already serious situation that was largely the result of natural causes.
Yep, that about sums it up, see also linked article above. It should be noted that Tauger's position, while academically sound, is in the minority regarding his emphasis on weather. Davies and Wheatcroft point more strongly to, for example, the fact that no sensible system should rest on the assumption of consistently good-to-great harvests.

Tauger is very frequently misrepresented by Stalinists, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if caveman1917 is simply repeating such misrepresentations without having read the book himself, because they sound quite familiar.
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Old 29th March 2018, 07:51 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
It's a good idea to actually read Tauger and not just what your tankie buddies claim about his writings.
It's also a good idea to actually read Tauger's sources and not just what he interprets them to mean
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Old 29th March 2018, 07:56 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
It's also a good idea to actually read Tauger's sources and not just what he interprets them to mean
Nice bit of backpedalling there. You supplied Tauger as a reference for your extraordinary, highly controversial claims. Tauger does not support them. So please, you either haven't read Tauger or assumed nobody would call you on it. You don't think I've seen the Tankie take on Tauger before? LOL.

Otherwise, how about you cite this extensive stash of sources you're basing your ideas off �� and explain how your interpretations differs from Tauger's.
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Old 29th March 2018, 08:01 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
It's also a good idea to actually read Tauger's sources and not just what he interprets them to mean
I asked you to cite sources that backed up your claims. Now you claim that the source you cited didn't do what you said it did.
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Old 29th March 2018, 08:04 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
The proper response to crude oversimplifications like counting people as "victim of X" is to engage with the source material, contextualize and provide nuance.

It is not to engage in crude oversimplifications of your own.
If a private landlord evicts a tenant who then proceeds to die on the streets then it doesn't get counted as a "victim of capitalism" (or at least a victim of private ownership of housing), but if those tenants turn around and kill the landlord (constituting a significant fraction of the deaths under the Great Leap Forward) then they do get counted as "victims of communism".

If people die due to lack of healthcare in a privatized system (such as the US) then they don't get counted as "victims of capitalism" but if they die due to issues with socialized healthcare (such as the USSR) then they get counted as "victims of communism" - even though the latter system kills much fewer people than the former.

Until one of those authors writes texts about the "Great Terror under Obama" and ascribes all deaths in the US prison system under his presidency to this (cfr the Gulag system) then they should just be laughed out of the room for ideological posturing.
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Old 29th March 2018, 08:09 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
If a private landlord evicts a tenant who then proceeds to die on the streets then it doesn't get counted as a "victim of capitalism" (or at least a victim of private ownership of housing), but if those tenants turn around and kill the landlord (constituting a significant fraction of the deaths under the Great Leap Forward) then they do get counted as "victims of communism".

If people die due to lack of healthcare in a privatized system (such as the US) then they don't get counted as "victims of capitalism" but if they die due to issues with socialized healthcare (such as the USSR) then they get counted as "victims of communism" - even though the latter system kills much fewer people than the former.

Until one of those authors writes texts about the "Great Terror under Obama" and ascribes all deaths in the US prison system under his presidency to this (cfr the Gulag system) then they should just be laughed out of the room for ideological posturing.
... or, you could point out flaws in tendentious histories and supply better interpretations, not engaging in outright apologetics.

Relying entirely on Chomskyisms gets nobody anywhere.
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Old 29th March 2018, 08:11 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
Nice bit of backpedalling there. You supplied Tauger as a reference for your extraordinary, highly controversial claims.
No I provided Tauger's work as a collection of references to relevant primary sources. Your failure to derive a position yourself from the primary sources, and your apparent need to be spoon-fed interpretations of them by others, is yours and yours alone.

Quote:
Tauger does not support them. So please, you either haven't read Tauger or assumed nobody would call you on it. You don't think I've seen the Tankie take on Tauger before? LOL.
And you think I haven't seen the anti-communist take on the Soviet famine of 1932-1933 before? LOL.

Quote:
Otherwise, how about you cite this extensive stash of sources you're basing your ideas off �� and explain how your interpretations differs from Tauger's.
It's your claim that the Soviet famine of 1932-1933 was caused by the CMA, how about you defend your claim? In particular I'd be interested to know how the variables stated by Davies and Wheatcroft as causal - ie loss of draft power, loss of experienced peasants, monocultural crop growing, etc - can be even worse in 1933 yet the 1933 harvest being the best of the period?
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Old 29th March 2018, 08:14 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
... or, you could point out flaws in tendentious histories and supply better interpretations, not engaging in outright apologetics.

Relying entirely on Chomskyisms gets nobody anywhere.
No thanks, laughter will do, it's the most appropriate response. Let me know when the "Great Terror of Obama" has been published, then we can get back to this.
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Old 29th March 2018, 08:49 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
No I provided Tauger's work as a collection of references to relevant primary sources. Your failure to derive a position yourself from the primary sources, and your apparent need to be spoon-fed interpretations of them by others, is yours and yours alone.
LOL. Are you suggesting you have studied Soviet archival material yourself? That you possess the necessary expertise to evaluate such material? What journal did you publish your revolutionary findings in? Can you list these primary sources and where you studied them?

Just admit you haven't read it.
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Old 29th March 2018, 08:59 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
LOL. Are you suggesting you have studied Soviet archival material yourself? That you possess the necessary expertise to evaluate such material? What journal did you publish your revolutionary findings in? Can you list these primary sources and where you studied them?

Just admit you haven't read it.
I read it just fine. How about you just admit you can not back up your claim of the CMA being the cause of the famine? Why was the percentage harvest loss consistent both within and outside the USSR (-50% USSR, Germany, Romania, ...) if the purported cause, the CMA, only happened in the USSR?
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Old 29th March 2018, 09:03 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
I read it just fine. How about you just admit you can not back up your claim of the CMA being the cause of the famine?
You yourself have already backed up that claim with your reference to Tauger.

Meanwhile you would have me believe you yourself have studied his primary sources, none of which you are able to name. I think that's the most hilariously inept excuse for such an embarassingly failed gambit that I have ever heard.
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Old 29th March 2018, 09:09 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
You yourself have already backed up that claim with your reference to Tauger.
No, the musings of your anti-communist buddies do not constitute support. So either back it up or admit you can't. There are several questions open for your theory:

1. Why are the percentage harvest losses consistent both within and outside the USSR when the CMA only happened in the USSR?

2. Why did all the variables purported to be the cause of the famine get even worse in 1933 yet the 1933 harvest being the best of the period?

It's almost like the harvest failure can be fully explained by environmental causes, but some ideologues just have a need to drag the CMA into it.

Quote:
Meanwhile you would have me believe you yourself have studied his primary sources, none of which you are able to name. I think that's the most hilariously inept excuse for such an embarassingly failed gambit that I have ever heard.


If anything's hilariously inept it would be your failure to distinguish between what the primary sources state (as given per Tauger, but also others) and the musings of Tauger and others based on those sources.

ETA: And Tauger himself (as are Davies and Wheatcroft, and others) makes a clear distinction in his works between what the sources state and the theories that he comes up with based on them. If we trust Tauger to accurately represent what the primary sources state then we don't even need to go digging in the Soviet archives, we can just take his word for it.
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Old 29th March 2018, 09:22 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post


If anything's hilariously inept it would be your failure to distinguish between what the primary sources state (as given per Tauger, but also others) and the musings of Tauger and others based on those sources.
Where did you get your degrees in Russian and Soviet history?
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Old 29th March 2018, 09:22 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
Where did you get your degrees in Russian and Soviet history?
Where did Tauger get his in agriculture?
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Old 29th March 2018, 09:26 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Where did Tauger get his in agriculture?
Tauger is a historian of agriculture As in, he teaches the history of agriculture, along with Russian/Soviet history at a university.

What about you? Are you even fluent in Russian?
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Old 29th March 2018, 09:47 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
I don't give a crap what your "commentators" (read as "anti-communist propagandists") say, if you can't back up your claims with primary sources then they have no credibility.
Ooooh! And I suppose the only people who comment adversely on the Irish Famine of 1845-49 are Fenian terrorists making propaganda against the British Empire.

If you're so good at primary sources, give us the ones that tell us there was mass famine (not simply harvest failure) in Europe outside the USSR any time between 1928 and 1939.

In 1928 there was a grain market price crisis in the USSR. The government had a choice between raising procurement prices or applying non-market coercion and confiscation. Stalin chose the latter course, and the procurement crisis then became a famine in which millions died. The question has been raised whether this famine was created intentionally to kill people. I don't think it was. Or designed as an act of genocide against Ukrainians. I don't think it was. But nonetheless millions died, and Stalin's ruthless policies were the main cause of these deaths.

In places over which he did not rule, there may have been natural environmental problems, but only in the USSR did they result in mass famine deaths.

If you want to call that "anti communist propaganda" go ahead.
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Old 29th March 2018, 10:11 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
Tauger is a historian of agriculture As in, he teaches the history of agriculture, along with Russian/Soviet history at a university.

What about you? Are you even fluent in Russian?
Neither. So will you respond to the open questions about your theory or will you keep ignoring them?

Oh and do allow me to quote the sentence before the one you start your quote with: "The harvest of 1932 essentially made a famine inevitable." And since you quote Tauger as saying "The data presented here provide a more precise measure of the consequences of collectivization and forced industrialization than has previously been available" perhaps you would like to point out which data that would be?
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Old 29th March 2018, 10:14 AM   #105
TubbaBlubba
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Neither. So will you respond to the open questions about your theory or will you keep ignoring them?

Oh and do allow me to quote the sentence before the one you start your quote with: "The harvest of 1932 essentially made a famine inevitable." And since you quote Tauger as saying "The data presented here provide a more precise measure of the consequences of collectivization and forced industrialization than has previously been available" perhaps you would like to point out which data that would be?
No, I'm happy to rest on the conclusions of multiple reputable authora. You have yet to present a single secondary source that supports your apologetics.
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Old 29th March 2018, 10:33 AM   #106
caveman1917
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
No, I'm happy to rest on the conclusions of multiple reputable authora. You have yet to present a single secondary source that supports your apologetics.
Fails to back up claims when questioned => calls people questioning the claims engaging in "apologetics". Let me guess, you call people questioning the claim that Saddam had WMD's engaging in "apologetics" too, because "multiple reputable authors" told you that he had them whilst not presenting any evidence for it?

Maybe we should rather ask the question: Have you actually read Tauger? Because if you had you might have noticed that the paper you cite from 1991 merely supports that the harvest was much lower than previously thought, and that the conclusion you quoted is not actually supported by the text. Tauger simply ascribes the lower harvest to the CMA as a given a priori. It is then notable that in his later work from 2001 that I have cited, where he actually researches the causes for the lower harvest figures (rather than just supporting that the harvest was, indeed, lower than previously thought), he gives environmental conditions as the main cause.

Even the "reputable authors" that you cite don't support your interpretation.
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"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin

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Old 29th March 2018, 10:46 AM   #107
TubbaBlubba
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Fails to back up claims when questioned => calls people questioning the claims engaging in "apologetics". Let me guess, you call people questioning the claim that Saddam had WMD's engaging in "apologetics" too, because "multiple reputable authors" told you that he had them whilst not presenting any evidence for it?

Maybe we should rather ask the question: Have you actually read Tauger? Because if you had you might have noticed that the paper you cite from 1991 merely supports that the harvest was much lower than previously thought, and that the conclusion you quoted is not actually supported by the text. Tauger simply ascribes the lower harvest to the CMA as a given a priori. It is then notable that in his later work from 2001 that I have cited, where he actually researches the causes for the lower harvest figures (rather than just supporting that the harvest was, indeed, lower than previously thought), he gives environmental conditions as the main cause.

Even the "reputable authors" that you cite don't support your interpretation.
You keep changing your excuses with every post you make. Do you think you come off as credible?
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Old 29th March 2018, 11:11 AM   #108
caveman1917
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
You keep changing your excuses with every post you make.
Riiiiight... If I ask you for some evidence for that claim it's going to be "a reputable author told me so" again, isn't it?

Quote:
Do you think you come off as credible?
Says the guy who started off by promoting an author (Robert Conquest) as reputable who was literally hired to produce anti-communist propaganda.
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Old 29th March 2018, 11:20 AM   #109
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Says the guy who started off by promoting an author (Robert Conquest) as reputable who was literally hired to produce anti-communist propaganda.
Conquest's books should not be the only ones you ever read on the topic, but they were monumental and references to them are so abundant in later works it's hard to get a grip on the historiography without reading them sooner or later. They are also very well written, and simply enjoyable reads.

Conquest had been a freelance writer for over a decade when The Great Terror was published. Most material wasn't even available when he worked with the IRD.
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Old 30th March 2018, 06:55 AM   #110
caveman1917
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Perhaps I wasn't clear enough in my request.
That is correct, here's the alternative highlighting:
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
The theory that best explains the famine (or at least the harvest failure leading up to it) is environmental causes, and since by point 2 above the CMA is statistically associated with security against such events (rather than the opposite) it seems more likely that the famine would've been even worse without the CMA. So maybe it's not the deaths as a result of Stalinist-style collectivization that are a category worthy of study, but the lives saved as a result of it.
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Could we at least see some sources that might back up this claim?
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Natural Disaster and Human Actions in the Soviet Famine of 1931-1933, Mark B. Tauger.
A priori the CMA had no effect on harvest size, that's the null hypothesis (H0) without a burden of proof. Hypotheses which incur a burden of proof would be:

H1: The CMA caused the 1932 harvest failure and hence caused the deaths following it.

H2: The CMA lessened the impact of the 1932 harvest failure and saved lives.

H1 seems to be defended by nothing but the principle of blind, unquestioning faith in the unevidenced declarations of "reputable authors" (at least one of which was literally paid to produce anti-communist propaganda, and up until his death proudly proclaimed himself to be a "Cold Warrior").

H2 can be defended by:

1. The 1932 harvest failure being caused by environmental conditions.

2. The CMA being statistically associated with lessening the impact of environmental conditions on harvests.

3. The general notion that exchanging medieval farming practices with modern best practice (which is what the CMA was in effect) should increase food security with respect to environmental conditions rather than decrease it.

Point 1 is supported by the reference I gave.

Point 2 is supported by looking at historical harvest failures in the region before and after the CMA. Before it there were harvest failures every 3-4 years and catastrophic famine-level ones every 10 years, which had been a constant for about a millennium. After the CMA there were no more of those (except in 1946 which had more to do with the destruction caused by the Nazi invasion than with farming practices) even though the environmental conditions (recurring droughts etc) didn't change.

Point 3 is just basic common sense.

That the CMA saved lives in general is fairly obvious from point 2, the only thing perhaps still open is whether it also saved lives specifically in the 1932 harvest.
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"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin
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Old 30th March 2018, 06:58 AM   #111
TubbaBlubba
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
That is correct, here's the alternative highlighting:




A priori the CMA had no effect on harvest size, that's the null hypothesis (H0) without a burden of proof. Hypotheses which incur a burden of proof would be:

H1: The CMA caused the 1932 harvest failure and hence caused the deaths following it.

H2: The CMA lessened the impact of the 1932 harvest failure and saved lives.

H1 seems to be defended by nothing but the principle of blind, unquestioning faith in the unevidenced declarations of "reputable authors" (at least one of which was literally paid to produce anti-communist propaganda, and up until his death proudly proclaimed himself to be a "Cold Warrior").

H2 can be defended by:

1. The 1932 harvest failure being caused by environmental conditions.

2. The CMA being statistically associated with lessening the impact of environmental conditions on harvests.

3. The general notion that exchanging medieval farming practices with modern best practice (which is what the CMA was in effect) should increase food security with respect to environmental conditions rather than decrease it.

Point 1 is supported by the reference I gave.

Point 2 is supported by looking at historical harvest failures in the region before and after the CMA. Before it there were harvest failures every 3-4 years and catastrophic famine-level ones every 10 years, which had been a constant for about a millennium. After the CMA there were no more of those (except in 1946 which had more to do with the destruction caused by the Nazi invasion than with farming practices) even though the environmental conditions (recurring droughts etc) didn't change.

Point 3 is just basic common sense.

That the CMA saved lives in general is fairly obvious from point 2, the only thing perhaps still open is whether it also saved lives specifically in the 1932 harvest.
Have you decided whether Mark Tauger's conclusions supports your apologist thesis yet?
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Old 30th March 2018, 07:26 AM   #112
caveman1917
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
There are several questions open for your theory:

1. Why are the percentage harvest losses consistent both within and outside the USSR when the CMA only happened in the USSR?

2. Why did all the variables purported to be the cause of the famine get even worse in 1933 yet the 1933 harvest being the best of the period?
Let's add a 3rd open question for TubbaBlubba's theory:

3. If the CMA caused the harvest failure then why, in 1932 when only about 50% of farming had been re-organized under the CMA, did the still-private farmlands have an equally bad - if not worse - harvest failure?
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Old 30th March 2018, 12:15 PM   #113
TubbaBlubba
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Let's add a 3rd open question for TubbaBlubba's theory:

3. If the CMA caused the harvest failure then why, in 1932 when only about 50% of farming had been re-organized under the CMA, did the still-private farmlands have an equally bad - if not worse - harvest failure?
It is up to you to make your case, not for me to waste time trying to answer your disingenuous questions. Your flip-flopping on Tauger shows how dishonest your argumentation is.
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Old 30th March 2018, 01:42 PM   #114
Craig B
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Let's add a 3rd open question for TubbaBlubba's theory:

3. If the CMA caused the harvest failure then why, in 1932 when only about 50% of farming had been re-organized under the CMA, did the still-private farmlands have an equally bad - if not worse - harvest failure?
You tell us, since you seem to have the primary data. But recall my admonition to you: we are not talking about mere harvest failure as such, but about the deaths of millions of people. Harvest failure doesn't entirely account for it. If it did, and if the harvest failure was caused by natural environmental phenomena, there would have been mass deaths in Poland or Lithuania or other neighbouring countries. There was no famine in these places.

The cause was that the state had taken over the land, the livestock, and the peasants' granaries, and was using the grain to sell on the world market to fund the import of materials for industrialisation. The peasants had been dispossessed of their land, their livestock and their stores of grain.

Even the peasants on private land were subject to increased procurement demands, and those of them with substantial stocks of grain or livestock were often denounced as "kulaks" and exiled from their homes, or worse.

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Old 31st March 2018, 07:10 AM   #115
caveman1917
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
It is up to you to make your case
And I have done so.

Quote:
not for me to waste time trying to answer your disingenuous questions.
So you are either unable or unwilling to support your theory. Then why should we accept it?

Quote:
Your flip-flopping on Tauger shows how dishonest your argumentation is.
There is no flip-flopping except in the heads of people who don't understand that one can agree with an author's data without necessarily agreeing with (all) the theories they come up with to explain the data. ("I let go off a bottle of water and it fell to the ground, so clearly the magic fairies dragged the bottle down to the ground.") All you're doing here with these sorts of comments is displaying your own intellectual inabilities.
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"We must devastate the avenues where the wealthy live." - Lucy Parsons
"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin
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Old 31st March 2018, 07:21 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Harvest failure doesn't entirely account for it.
Of course it doesn't, but that doesn't mean the CMA as such caused it. The famine is accounted for by lack of significant available reserves[*] and the delay of several months[**] between the actual harvest and when the figures of the harvest yields got compiled and reached the upper decision-making levels.

* They had been trying to build grain reserves for a couple of years but failed due to a sequence of bad harvests (1928 to 1931) and the trade embargo in place at the time meaning that they could only export food for international trade.

** Between august 1932 and december 1932 the government was still operating by the projected yields and hence kept exporting grain. By the time the real yields got compiled and were made available in december 1932 they immediately stopped grain exports and starting tapping their reserves, but by that time it was already too late and they didn't have enough to feed everyone until the next harvest in summer 1933.
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"We must devastate the avenues where the wealthy live." - Lucy Parsons
"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin
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Old 31st March 2018, 07:45 AM   #117
Craig B
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
** Between august 1932 and december 1932 the government was still operating by the projected yields and hence kept exporting grain. By the time the real yields got compiled and were made available in december 1932 they immediately stopped grain exports and starting tapping their reserves, but by that time it was already too late and they didn't have enough to feed everyone until the next harvest in summer 1933.
Then you are denying the factuality of this account?
The Soviets did everything in their power to deny the existence of the Famine. When the London Daily Express reported a Soviet purchase of a modest 15,000 tons of wheat from abroad to alleviate the shortage of bread at home, Pravda on May 27, 1933, published an indignant denial. Stalin denied the existence of the Famine and continued to export grain, albeit at a lower rate. In 1931, the USSR exported 5.06 million metric tons of grain. In 1932 this fell to 1.73 million and in 1933 to 1.68 million
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Old 31st March 2018, 08:15 AM   #118
caveman1917
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Then you are denying the factuality of this account?
The Soviets did everything in their power to deny the existence of the Famine. When the London Daily Express reported a Soviet purchase of a modest 15,000 tons of wheat from abroad to alleviate the shortage of bread at home, Pravda on May 27, 1933, published an indignant denial. Stalin denied the existence of the Famine and continued to export grain, albeit at a lower rate. In 1931, the USSR exported 5.06 million metric tons of grain. In 1932 this fell to 1.73 million and in 1933 to 1.68 million
Everyone knows that they denied the famine, that doesn't mean that the CMA caused it. Recall:
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
("I let go off a bottle of water and it fell to the ground, so clearly the magic fairies dragged the bottle down to the ground.")
If I subsequently deny having let go off the bottle, does that constitute proof that it is indeed magic fairies which drag things down?

As to the export figures, remember that the harvests are in summer (ie the middle of the calendar year) so you'll need a month-by-month breakdown rather than a year-by-year one, since doing it by calendar years mixes up the exports of different harvests. As far as I know the grain export between december 1932 (when the government received the actual harvest yields) and july 1933 (when the next harvest - the best in the period - was coming in) was just about 300k tons.
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"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin
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Old 31st March 2018, 08:59 AM   #119
Craig B
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Everyone knows that they denied the famine, that doesn't mean that the CMA caused it. Recall:

If I subsequently deny having let go off the bottle, does that constitute proof that it is indeed magic fairies which drag things down?
Stalin denied the famine and sought no international help to alleviate it. In 1891 and in 1921 the respective governments of the day admitted the famines and accepted international aid. Stalin's failure to do this cost perhaps as many lives as the ARA and others were able to save in 1921-22, which is millions. What caused the famine of 1891? Exports during harvest failure.

The peasants had inadequate control over the disposal of the harvests. In 1930-31 they similarly lost control over the granaries containing the harvests they had reaped; and the markets in which they had sold these products were closed. Who took these things away from the peasant cultivators? Ah yes, magic fairies.

As to grain exports, you tell us
Quote:
the harvests are in summer (ie the middle of the calendar year) so you'll need a month-by-month breakdown rather than a year-by-year one, since doing it by calendar years mixes up the exports of different harvests. As far as I know the grain export between december 1932 (when the government received the actual harvest yields) and july 1933 (when the next harvest - the best in the period - was coming in) was just about 300k tons.
But previously you said: "they immediately stopped grain exports". I show you figures that refute that. It is simply not true. Your response: the figures I gave are annual, but we need month to month. No we don't. And if we did, show me them. You stated that exports were immediately stopped, but they weren't stopped.

Here is an interesting passage from the wiki article on the 1891 Russian famine. These things the Tsarist administration did: what do they remind you of?
The main blame was laid at the government, which was discredited by the famine. It refused to use that word: golod, they called it a poor harvest, neurozhai, and stopped the papers reporting on it. The main reason the blame fell on the government was that grain exports were not banned till mid-August and merchants had a month's warning so they could quickly export their reserves. Minister of Finance Ivan Vyshnegradsky even opposed this late ban. He was seen as the main cause of the disaster as it was his policy to raise consumer taxes to force peasants to sell more grain. Even Russia's capitalists realized the industrialization drive had been too hard on the peasants.
Yes, the magic fairies of 1891 all survived the Revolution, and paid the countryside another visit forty one years later.
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Old 31st March 2018, 09:22 AM   #120
caveman1917
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
The peasants had inadequate control over the disposal of the harvests. In 1930-31 they similarly lost control over the granaries containing the harvests they had reaped; and the markets in which they had sold these products were closed. Who took these things away from the peasant cultivators? Ah yes, magic fairies.
Well it definitely wasn't the Soviet government, since its 6 May 1932 (before the 1932 harvest) decree lowered procurement quota's by 30% and allowed peasants to trade in grain at free market prices again. Procurement quota's were then successively lowered even further throughout 1932. So maybe magic fairies it is?

Quote:
As to grain exports, you tell us But previously you said: "they immediately stopped grain exports". I show you figures that refute that.
No you didn't, you showed an aggregate export figure for 1933 and conveniently forgot to mention that almost all of that figure (>80%) is exports from the 1933 harvest, after the famine had stopped and they had plenty of grain.

Quote:
It is simply not true.
Fine, grain exports were immediately lowered to the minimum. Happy now?

Quote:
And if we did, show me them.
TubbaBlubba already did. Did you read the referenced source? If not, why should your contributions be considered serious if you fail to even read the sources already given earlier in the thread?
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"Let us therefore trust the eternal Spirit which destroys and annihilates only because it is the unfathomable and eternal source of all life. The passion for destruction is a creative passion, too!" - Mikhail Bakunin
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