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Old 14th October 2020, 07:38 PM   #2241
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'm going to make a prediction that the virus will really take off from here on, with new daily records set weekly for the next few weeks.
That's one week down, with the world showing new record infections today.

It also looks like the highest Tuesday death total since April.
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Old 14th October 2020, 08:51 PM   #2242
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New development: Your blood type can determine how sick you get with covid.
Quote:
In a new study published Wednesday, researchers in Canada found that, among 95 critically ill COVID-19 patients, 84 percent of those with the blood types A and AB required mechanical ventilation compared to 61 percent of patients with type O or type B, CNN reports. The former group also remained in the intensive care unit for a median of 13.5 days, while the latter's median stay was nine days.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/blood-typ...172000220.html
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Old 14th October 2020, 09:12 PM   #2243
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
New development: Your blood type can determine how sick you get with covid.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/blood-typ...172000220.html
Now, that is interesting. There's a significant difference.

The idea was first raised way back in March, but the study - from a Chinese hospital - was largely dismissed.

I think Trump might be type O, from what I can see online.
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Old 14th October 2020, 11:00 PM   #2244
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
New development: Your blood type can determine how sick you get with covid.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/blood-typ...172000220.html
That's not new and there has been discrediting research results since.
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Old 15th October 2020, 12:24 AM   #2245
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
That's not new and there has been discrediting research results since.

The links say they're two new studies from Canada and Denmark.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...-risk-n1243322
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/14/healt...ess/index.html
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Old 15th October 2020, 02:08 AM   #2246
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
That's not new and there has been discrediting research results since.
Jesus H Christ - I would have thought that just maybe, by now, you'd look at something before dismissing it without any knowledge of what you're talking about.

The studies are brand new, released only this week.

And the conclusion is pretty straightforward:

Quote:
"It's a repeated, interesting scientific observation that really warrants further mechanistic work."
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Old 15th October 2020, 02:32 AM   #2247
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If one wanted further confirmation -

About 75,000 more Americans died from COVID-19 pandemic than reported in spring and summer, study finds
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Old 15th October 2020, 06:11 AM   #2248
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
New development: Your blood type can determine how sick you get with covid.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/blood-typ...172000220.html
I wonder if that's going to alter the superstitions about blood type in Asia?
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Old 15th October 2020, 07:34 AM   #2249
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Just going by varicella disease, it always confer immunity. I've read, though not recently, that it's possible two competing infections resulted in an inadequate immune response.

There have been other rare cases of infections occurring twice where people are only supposed to get them once.

People may be overly concerned that a rare case of COVID twice means immunity is not acquired.
Based on related viruses there is a high probability that CoVID-19 immunity isn’t persistent. Resistance is acquired but it likely fades within 1-3 years.

The real questions are how long resistance lasts and the severity of subsequent infections. We are just beginning to get data that will help answer these questions with just a handful of confirmed cases. At present it’s still difficult to differentiate between multiple infections and holdover from the original infection simply because the virus hasn’t been around long enough. We will know more a year from now but that doesn’t mean we can’t watch with interest as the data begins to flow in, even if it is still just a handful of data points.

In terms of what it means for the pandemic response, the only real consequence is whether we need to get vaccinated every year of every 3 years.
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Old 15th October 2020, 11:35 AM   #2250
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Jesus H Christ - I would have thought that just maybe, by now, you'd look at something before dismissing it without any knowledge of what you're talking about.

The studies are brand new, released only this week.

And the conclusion is pretty straightforward:
Jesus H Christ, those are news stories, not links to the actual research! What's with letting the sensationalist news media interpret clinical research. You see the headline, go look at the actual research!

This is from a PubMed search rather than hunting for the studies from the news stories.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32496734/
Quote:
... 186 patients with PCR confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 were included in this study.... Results: The most frequently detected blood group was blood group A (57%) amongst the COVID-19 patients. This was followed by the blood group O (24.8%). The blood group types did not affect the clinical outcomes. Blood group A was statistically significantly more frequent among those infected with COVID-19 compared to controls (57% vs 38%, p <0.001; OR: 2.1). On the other hand, the frequency of blood group O was significantly lower in the COVID-19 patients, compared to the control group (24.8% vs 37.2%, p: 0.001; OR: 1.8).

Conclusions: The results of the present study suggest that while the blood group A might have a role in increased susceptibility to the COVID-19 infection, the blood group O might be somewhat protective. However, once infected, blood group type does not seem to influence clinical outcome.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7283642/
Quote:
... In fact, considering the largest series of patients with COVID‐19 (N = 1888) analysed by Zhao et al., 2 we compared the proportion of those possessing anti‐A in their serum (i.e. those of B and O blood groups) and those who did not (i.e. those of A and AB blood groups) to the control cohort (N = 3694; Table I)....
In conclusion, this way of analysing the data strongly suggests that the presence of anti‐A antibodies in serum and more specifically IgG anti‐A, should be considered as a factor more significant than the blood group itself, as far as the relationship between COVID‐19 susceptibility and ABO blood groups is concerned.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32656591/
Quote:
... all adult patients who tested positive for COVID-19 across five hospitals were identified and included from March 6th to April 16th, 2020. ...

After multivariable analysis, blood type was not independently associated with risk of intubation or death (referent blood type A; blood type B: AOR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.42-1.26, blood type AB: AOR: 0.78, CI: 0.33-1.87, blood type O: AOR: 0.77, CI: 0.51-1.16), rhesus factor positive (Rh+): AOR: 1.03, CI: 0.93-1.86. Blood type A had no correlation with positive testing (AOR: 1.00, CI: 0.88-1.13), blood type B was associated with higher odds of testing positive for disease (AOR: 1.28, CI: 1.08-1.52), AB was also associated with higher odds of testing positive (AOR: 1.37, CI: 1.02-1.83), and O was associated with a lower risk of testing positive (AOR: 0.84, CI: 0.75-0.95). Rh+ status was associated with higher odds of testing positive (AOR: 1.23, CI: 1.003-1.50). Blood type was not associated with risk of intubation or death in patients with COVID-19. Patients with blood types B and AB who received a test were more likely to test positive and blood type O was less likely to test positive. Rh+ patients were more likely to test positive.
Post links to the 'new' research and I'll look at it.
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Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 15th October 2020 at 11:37 AM.
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Old 15th October 2020, 11:43 AM   #2251
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
....
Post links to the 'new' research and I'll look at it.
https://ashpublications.org/bloodadv...fection-in-ABO
https://ashpublications.org/bloodadv...ith-indices-of
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Old 15th October 2020, 12:05 PM   #2252
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Thank you.

From the first link:
Quote:
This study identifies ABO blood group as a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection but not for hospitalization or death from COVID-19....

...Of 473 654 individuals tested, 7422 were positive for SARS-CoV-2, and 466 232 were negative. ...
They had a very large sample size and controlled for any difference a large immigrant population might have had.

From the second link:
Quote:
Collectively, our data indicate that critically ill COVID-19 patients with blood group A or AB are at increased risk for requiring mechanical ventilation, CRRT, and prolonged ICU admission compared with patients with blood group O or B. Further work is needed to understand the underlying mechanisms. ...

A total of 125 critically ill COVID-19 patients ...
So the first study found significantly different results from the second. And the first study looked at 7422 patients with COVID 19 with a distribution from positive tests to death.

The second study looked at 125 critically ill COVID-19 patients.

I have a good degree of confidence in the first study. The second study suggests a result but it begs for more research rather than a firm conclusion.
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Old 15th October 2020, 12:11 PM   #2253
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
The second study suggests a result but it begs for more research rather than a firm conclusion.[/hilite]
Excellent circular argument. That's exactly what the researchers said, and I quoted them as under:


"It's a repeated, interesting scientific observation that really warrants further mechanistic work."
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Old 15th October 2020, 12:40 PM   #2254
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Covid deniers are just like Global Warming deniers, who use arguments like "different measurement techniques are not comparable", "there are gaps in the temperature record" and "weather station readings have been manipulated, so the temperature statistics are corrupt and results are invalid".
Your response shows that you do not have a grasp on exponential growth. Display the algorithm that allows for intermittent time frames in determining exponential growth? Rule of 70/72 cannot apply as this is used with finance having known variables.
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Old 15th October 2020, 05:09 PM   #2255
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New South Wales (Australian state) has been averaging 8 new infections a day for the past week, is now allowing more people in pubs and restaurants and is allowing New Zealanders into the state with no quarantine. What could possibly go wrong?
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Old 15th October 2020, 05:34 PM   #2256
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No worries for us - they have to go to quarantine when they go back.

You're certainly not going to import any from NZ.

Also, 8 a day is pretty light when it isn't increasing and the population is 7.5 million. I imagine most are in quarantine when they tested positive anyway.

We've shown it's quite possible to keep on top of small numbers with adequate test & trace, so I don't really see a problem. Victoria dropped the ball - NSW appears to have both hands on it.
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Old 15th October 2020, 06:07 PM   #2257
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And another new case total record today.

Highest new case total in USA since 31 July.seven-day average in both cases and deaths rising sharply.

It's quite surreal being in NZ right now, where all restrictions have been removed and we have no cases, watching the rest of the world fall into the abyss. Little wonder there's another ~100k Kiwis wanting to join the 50k who have already returned.
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Old 15th October 2020, 08:39 PM   #2258
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COVID-19 infectious for up to 28 days on common surfaces

That’s one of the findings of a CSIRO study on the viability of COVID virus on fomites.

The study confirms some of what we already know, that ambient temperature and fomite material both influence how long the virus can remain infectious.

They note that while fomite transmission is not the main route of COVID infection, it may be an “important contributor in transmission of the virus”.
Survival rates of SARS-CoV-2 were determined at different temperatures and D-values, Z-values and half-life were calculated. We obtained half lives of between 1.7 and 2.7 days at 20 °C, reducing to a few hours when temperature was elevated to 40 °C. With initial viral loads broadly equivalent to the highest titres excreted by infectious patients, viable virus was isolated for up to 28 days at 20 °C from common surfaces such as glass, stainless steel and both paper and polymer banknotes. Conversely, infectious virus survived less than 24 h at 40 °C on some surfaces.
...
At 20 °C, infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus was still detectable after 28 days post inoculation, for all non-porous surfaces tested (glass, polymer note, stainless steel, vinyl and paper notes). The recovery of SARS-CoV-2 on porous material (cotton cloth) was reduced compared with most non-porous surfaces, with no infectious virus recovered past day 14 post inoculation. The majority of virus reduction on cotton occurred very soon after application of virus, suggesting an immediate adsorption effect. The calculated D values for surfaces at 20 °C ranged from 5.5 days for cotton to 9.1 days for paper notes
It seems to support the precautions of deep cleaning of venues where people gather and using cashless transactions are indeed valid.
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Old 15th October 2020, 11:51 PM   #2259
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
That’s one of the findings of a CSIRO study on the viability of COVID virus on fomites.

The study confirms some of what we already know, that ambient temperature and fomite material both influence how long the virus can remain infectious.

They note that while fomite transmission is not the main route of COVID infection, it may be an “important contributor in transmission of the virus”.
Survival rates of SARS-CoV-2 were determined at different temperatures and D-values, Z-values and half-life were calculated. We obtained half lives of between 1.7 and 2.7 days at 20 °C, reducing to a few hours when temperature was elevated to 40 °C. With initial viral loads broadly equivalent to the highest titres excreted by infectious patients, viable virus was isolated for up to 28 days at 20 °C from common surfaces such as glass, stainless steel and both paper and polymer banknotes. Conversely, infectious virus survived less than 24 h at 40 °C on some surfaces.
...
At 20 °C, infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus was still detectable after 28 days post inoculation, for all non-porous surfaces tested (glass, polymer note, stainless steel, vinyl and paper notes). The recovery of SARS-CoV-2 on porous material (cotton cloth) was reduced compared with most non-porous surfaces, with no infectious virus recovered past day 14 post inoculation. The majority of virus reduction on cotton occurred very soon after application of virus, suggesting an immediate adsorption effect. The calculated D values for surfaces at 20 °C ranged from 5.5 days for cotton to 9.1 days for paper notes
It seems to support the precautions of deep cleaning of venues where people gather and using cashless transactions are indeed valid.
The next question is how to remove the virus on a surface? Will plain water do it, or soap?
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Old 16th October 2020, 12:49 AM   #2260
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Any surface cleaner, disinfectant or bleach cleaner.
That advice has been advertised since February or earlier. Did you somehow miss it?
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/defa...r-covid-19.pdf
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Old 16th October 2020, 02:37 AM   #2261
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
The study confirms some of what we already know, that ambient temperature and fomite material both influence how long the virus can remain infectious.
While I've been strident in saying fomite transmission is a real thing, they've missed several tricks in that study.

First off, they used viral samples without the crud they come in when expelled by a human, so the behaviour isn't necessarily the same as the delivery method they used.

Second, since we don't know what an infectious dose is, having viable viruses left after 28 days doesn't mean they'd be infectious.

Third, their experiments were all conducted in complete darkness, which isn't like the real world at all.

I think they're well over, and evidence of transmission routes don't support their conclusions.
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Old 16th October 2020, 04:37 AM   #2262
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The legal significance of the word "effective" comes into play here a bit.

For the U.S., the EPA test involves leaving the chemical on the surface for 10 minutes. Most people spray and then wipe it away seconds later.

Another reason I get annoyed at people stubbornly holding out for wipes and aerosol versions we don't have while refusing the pour bottles and trigger spray versions we do have. 90% of them have no idea what the product directions say and they will all be equally ineffective at point of use anyways!
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Old 16th October 2020, 06:53 AM   #2263
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Based on related viruses there is a high probability that CoVID-19 immunity isn’t persistent. Resistance is acquired but it likely fades within 1-3 years.

The real questions are how long resistance lasts and the severity of subsequent infections. We are just beginning to get data that will help answer these questions with just a handful of confirmed cases. At present it’s still difficult to differentiate between multiple infections and holdover from the original infection simply because the virus hasn’t been around long enough. We will know more a year from now but that doesn’t mean we can’t watch with interest as the data begins to flow in, even if it is still just a handful of data points.

In terms of what it means for the pandemic response, the only real consequence is whether we need to get vaccinated every year of every 3 years.
Sure fine. Once we've all been infected, and the virus is in the back ground, we will each be getting re-infected as our resistance wanes. We'll get sniffles, and get on with life. It will be "Like the flu".

Is there any cross-immunity with the cold causing Corona strains? Are they using that avenue in vaccines?

We need to study not just the deathly cases, but the mild cases. See why so.
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Old 16th October 2020, 07:22 AM   #2264
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
While I've been strident in saying fomite transmission is a real thing, they've missed several tricks in that study.

First off, they used viral samples without the crud they come in when expelled by a human, so the behaviour isn't necessarily the same as the delivery method they used.

Second, since we don't know what an infectious dose is, having viable viruses left after 28 days doesn't mean they'd be infectious.

Third, their experiments were all conducted in complete darkness, which isn't like the real world at all.

I think they're well over, and evidence of transmission routes don't support their conclusions.
I was struck by the large qtys they tested. Blobs of 100uL or so which is about 1/10 g. That's a pretty big blob. Also, they used pretty virus concentrations based on the low end of Ct counts of PCR tests of the most infectious.

What I was looking for is viability at lower temps. My concern is that there is higher stability at lower temps like 0 to 10 C. Much smaller amounts would be more typical on things like handrails and doorknobs but probably remain infectious much longer at even slightly lower temp. How will this change things in the winter?

Aerosols also remain retain viability at lower humidity which is more of a problem indoors during the winter outside of places like Florida. And these cooler regions in the USA are where the cases are growing.
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Old 16th October 2020, 07:23 AM   #2265
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
The legal significance of the word "effective" comes into play here a bit.

For the U.S., the EPA test involves leaving the chemical on the surface for 10 minutes. Most people spray and then wipe it away seconds later.

Another reason I get annoyed at people stubbornly holding out for wipes and aerosol versions we don't have while refusing the pour bottles and trigger spray versions we do have. 90% of them have no idea what the product directions say and they will all be equally ineffective at point of use anyways!
In my clinic, this has always been my big bugaboo. My staff demands I buy the sanitizing wipes and lysol. Then they spray the lysol in the air and give surfaces a quick pass with the wipe! "That patient was coughing in here so I'm sanitizing the air." Ugh! No matter what I say or do, they won't stop spraying the damn stuff in the air. So finally, last year, I had a "sanitization meeting," where I demonstrated proper technique. I also forbade them from using wipes at all and limited their use of aerosol spray. We switched to refillable spray bottles with a safe but effective sanitizer for all exam room/clinical sanitizing. To reinforce, I had one of the doctor-owners explain some of the science behind sanitization as well as potential toxicity from inhaled lysol. It's better now, which is good with all the shortages, but there are still some holdouts who I'm sorely tempted to lock in an exam room with a continuous lysol pump into the air. Kidding, but only just.
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Old 16th October 2020, 08:09 AM   #2266
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Discrepancy in mortality rates of BAME v white patients reconfirmed. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-people-study

Looks like one factor is the occupation of victims, but still seems to be some difference even when social economic factors, living conditions are controlled for.
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Old 16th October 2020, 09:56 AM   #2267
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[quote=xjx388;13259513]
....
Quote:
I also forbade them from using wipes at all and limited their use of aerosol spray.
....
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What's the problem with using wipes? Nothing is perfect, but you think wiping down surfaces isn't better than NOT wiping down surfaces, or you only use spray bottles and paper towels on surfaces, or what? Wipes are certainly more convenient if you want to carry something with you. (Yeah, spraying aerosols in the air is pretty silly.)

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Old 16th October 2020, 10:20 AM   #2268
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Looks like one factor is the occupation of victims, but still seems to be some difference even when social economic factors, living conditions are controlled for.
That might go back to initial viral load, but the report seems to ask more questions than it answers.

Could also be vitamin D in play.

One thing a pandemic exposes is how slowly the wheels of research turn.
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Old 16th October 2020, 11:15 AM   #2269
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
....


What's the problem with using wipes? Nothing is perfect, but you think wiping down surfaces isn't better than NOT wiping down surfaces, or you only use spray bottles and paper towels on surfaces, or what? Wipes are certainly more convenient if you want to carry something with you. (Yeah, spraying aerosols in the air is pretty silly.)
Not speaking for xjx, but they mentioned a clinical setting.

I would be personally comforted to know a clinic I was at used a more rigorous protocol than wipes.
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Old 16th October 2020, 01:30 PM   #2270
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
In my clinic, this has always been my big bugaboo. My staff demands I buy the sanitizing wipes and lysol. Then they spray the lysol in the air and give surfaces a quick pass with the wipe! "That patient was coughing in here so I'm sanitizing the air." Ugh! No matter what I say or do, they won't stop spraying the damn stuff in the air. So finally, last year, I had a "sanitization meeting," where I demonstrated proper technique. I also forbade them from using wipes at all and limited their use of aerosol spray. We switched to refillable spray bottles with a safe but effective sanitizer for all exam room/clinical sanitizing. To reinforce, I had one of the doctor-owners explain some of the science behind sanitization as well as potential toxicity from inhaled lysol. It's better now, which is good with all the shortages, but there are still some holdouts who I'm sorely tempted to lock in an exam room with a continuous lysol pump into the air. Kidding, but only just.
In my infection control classes I use the example of throwing darts at a room full of moving balloons. The darts pop the balloons they hit, but unless you flood the room with so many darts they hit every square inch, you cannot hit all the balloons. You cannot disinfect the air with a spray.
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Old 16th October 2020, 01:51 PM   #2271
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Principles of the antibody testing

Does anyone have a link to a discussion or video of the principles of lateral diffusion immunochromatography, especially if its subject were antibody testing to this virus? Such a treatment would be especially useful for an undergraduate class that I teach. I found this just now, which is not bad. "The blood and buffer are absorbed into a porous test strip which is impregnated with recombinant viral antigens doped with an indicator (eg, colloidal gold, latex particles, europium, or quantum dots). Antibodies from the serum bind to antigens in the test strip and are wicked laterally along the length of the test strip. In the indicator regions of the test kit, anti-human antibodies which are immobilized in the test strip will bind to the antigen-antibody complex and hold them in the indicator region. The colloidal gold, or other colorant, accumulates in the indicator region leading to a visible change in color along a narrow band of the wicking substrate."

Just from a casual perusal of this article and some literature from one of the test manufacturers, I am inclined to say that the this family of tests are opposite from ones with which I am more familiar (tests that are specific for blood, semen, or saliva) regarding which molecules are immobilized versus which are freely diffusing.
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Old 16th October 2020, 10:21 PM   #2272
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Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
Does anyone have a link to a discussion or video of the principles of lateral diffusion immunochromatography, especially if its subject were antibody testing to this virus? Such a treatment would be especially useful for an undergraduate class that I teach. I found this just now, which is not bad. "The blood and buffer are absorbed into a porous test strip which is impregnated with recombinant viral antigens doped with an indicator (eg, colloidal gold, latex particles, europium, or quantum dots). Antibodies from the serum bind to antigens in the test strip and are wicked laterally along the length of the test strip. In the indicator regions of the test kit, anti-human antibodies which are immobilized in the test strip will bind to the antigen-antibody complex and hold them in the indicator region. The colloidal gold, or other colorant, accumulates in the indicator region leading to a visible change in color along a narrow band of the wicking substrate."

Just from a casual perusal of this article and some literature from one of the test manufacturers, I am inclined to say that the this family of tests are opposite from ones with which I am more familiar (tests that are specific for blood, semen, or saliva) regarding which molecules are immobilized versus which are freely diffusing.
You could try here and linked pages as a resource.
https://www.abingdonhealth.com/contr...w-immunoassay/

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/tag/s...-lateral-flow/
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Old 17th October 2020, 03:39 PM   #2273
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
Your response shows that you do not have a grasp on exponential growth. Display the algorithm that allows for intermittent time frames in determining exponential growth? Rule of 70/72 cannot apply as this is used with finance having known variables.
??? I don't even...

You said:-
Originally Posted by No Other
Presenting statistical findings to prove a trend or an effective mitigation technique is nothing but manipulated observations and anecdotal experiences. In order to observe and evaluate advances and/or deviations from a position... standardization and constants are required. If one country reports their deaths as "anyone who with Covid-19 at the time of their demise will be counted as a Covid-19 death" and another country reports their Covid-19 deaths as "if Covid-19 was the reason why the death occurred"... you will immediately have corrupted statistics for comparison. If days are "skipped" in reporting, your results will not be valid.
I was being too kind before. This paragraph is so full of misrepresentation, weasel words and faulty logic it's embarrassing. But totally expected from a denier.

I could pick through this mess and show where you are wrong, but what's the point? From the words and arguments you use it's plain that you are being wrong intentionally. What I don't understand is why you do it. You must know that no rational person would be convinced by your nonsense, and yet here you are spouting it in a forum full of supposed rationalists. One might almost think the intention is to convince yourself.
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Old 17th October 2020, 04:42 PM   #2274
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Sure fine. Once we've all been infected, and the virus is in the back ground, we will each be getting re-infected as our resistance wanes. We'll get sniffles, and get on with life. It will be "Like the flu".

I don't think you understand this at all. The scenario you describe would be an utter disaster, as would the path to getting there. Fortunately it won't happen.
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Old 18th October 2020, 05:23 AM   #2275
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Fitness guru and coronavirus denier dies at 33 - from Covid-19

Influencer Dmitriy Stuzhuk Dead Of Coronavirus After Telling Followers It Wasn't Real (eonline, Oct. 17, 2020)
Dmitriy Stuzhuk told his followers that coronavirus didn't exist - but then he died from the disease. (News.Sky, Oct. 18, 2020)
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Old 18th October 2020, 07:56 AM   #2276
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It just occurred to me: I wonder how many people this guy managed to infect before he decided to get tested:

Quote:
According to The Sun, the fitness influencer contracted COVID-19 during a trip to Turkey and was treated in his native Ukraine.

The social media sensation also touched on this in his Instagram post, writing, "I felt bad on the second day in Turkey. I woke up in the middle of the night because my neck was swollen and it was hard to breathe. At the same time, my stomach ached a little."

"The next day, a cough began to appear, but there was no temperature. There were no particular symptoms of the disease either, so I thought that these could be consequences after playing sports, changing the climate and nutrition, and plus sleeping under air conditioning," he continued. "After returning from Turkey, I immediately went to take various tests, do an ultrasound scan and, just in case, decided to take a COVID test. It turned out to be positive."
nfluencer Dmitriy Stuzhuk Dead Of Coronavirus After Telling Followers It Wasn't Real (eonline, Oct. 17, 2020)

With whom did he play? With or without a face mask? How did he travel? On a plane? On a train? How many people may have been infected serving him his "nutrition"? Cleaning his room, changing his sheets?
This guy appears to have been so much in denial that he interpreted the typical symptoms of Covid-19 as "no particular (!) symptoms."
But at least his test and the oxygen seem to have convinced him. I only hope it was possible to trace all his contacts.
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Old 19th October 2020, 10:47 AM   #2277
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Viable Covid virus found on frozen food packaging.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...aging-in-china
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Old 19th October 2020, 02:13 PM   #2278
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Given the second wave has far more cases and far fewer deaths in say, the UK, what are the factors to explain this?
Is it simply that people having established they are in a vulnerable demograph during the first wave are now focussed on staying out of harm's way?
It seems unlikely the virus is less dangerous.
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Old 19th October 2020, 02:37 PM   #2279
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Given the second wave has far more cases and far fewer deaths in say, the UK, what are the factors to explain this?
Is it simply that people having established they are in a vulnerable demograph during the first wave are now focussed on staying out of harm's way?
It seems unlikely the virus is less dangerous.
From what is happening here in the USA, most new infections are in people below 40 y/o or even 30. By a large factor. The hospitalization rate is lower and the death rate is much lower. At least a factor of 10 and a factor of 100 for people between 20 and 29.

Cases for people over 60 have climbed, but not that much. Seems they have figured out they need to be cautious and younger people figure partying is fun and risk aversion isn't something the young are known for.

Also testing has increased. Earlier, testing had very high positive rates because it was limited to people quite sick. They missed a lot of Covid-19 cases. As tests became more available they are capturing lots of people with mild and sometimes no symptoms. Even so there's a lot of infected but asymptomatic people that aren't tested.

These two factors account for most of the difference. There may be some differences due to T cell crossover in different countries. Perhaps this explains places like Japan where there have been recent studies with Tokyo antibodies close to 50% and almost no deaths or hospitalizations. But there are glaring problems with that study as I noted in the regional anomalies thread.
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Old 19th October 2020, 02:57 PM   #2280
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Given the second wave has far more cases and far fewer deaths in say, the UK, what are the factors to explain this?
Is it simply that people having established they are in a vulnerable demograph during the first wave are now focussed on staying out of harm's way?
It seems unlikely the virus is less dangerous.
It is just a lag phase, the last week we have had elderly patients coming in infected from their grandchildren, the virus has propagated through young people with low mortality now it is spreading into the older population. The single biggest risk factor is age; for every seven years mortality doubles. Mortality is going to shoot up, it just takes time for people to die.
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