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Old 16th March 2020, 08:52 AM   #361
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Market down over 2000 points.
The Feds action was a total bust.
Only qestion left is how bad the recession is going to be.
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Old 16th March 2020, 09:41 AM   #362
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
18,000.
We'll check on that pretty soon, I think, although 20k is holding at the moment. I expect that to change when some ugly numbers start hitting USA.

When you consider the Dow was at 16,000 only three years ago and that all of the growth since then has been driven by speculation rather than results, I think 16k is bottom dollar.

We'll check back on that one.

Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Market down over 2000 points.
The Feds action was a total bust.
Yeah, I see it took all of 90 seconds to hit limit down.

Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Only qestion left is how bad the recession is going to be.
Really ******* bad.

To quantify that, I'd see a 10% contraction in the world's GDP across two, and possibly three, quarters.

Which means there's going to be a hell of a low base to start from, so there's some good news!
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Old 16th March 2020, 10:22 AM   #363
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
When you consider the Dow was at 16,000 only three years ago and that all of the growth since then has been driven by speculation rather than results, I think 16k is bottom dollar.
I don't think this is correct. Economic growth and corporate profits have both been very strong. There has been a lot of speculation driving the market, but the fundamentals have been good, too. Not good enough to sustain Dow 25,000, but enough to justify some share price growth.

How much? If I knew, I would be rich.
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Old 16th March 2020, 01:06 PM   #364
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I don't think this is correct. Economic growth and corporate profits have both been very strong. There has been a lot of speculation driving the market, but the fundamentals have been good, too. Not good enough to sustain Dow 25,000, but enough to justify some share price growth.

How much? If I knew, I would be rich.
My view is more pessimistic. Much of the growth in the extraordinarily long, but slow, bull market was fueled by extraordinarily low interest rates together with increased deficit spending. Many corporations were taking on low cost debt and buying back shares. Everything looks good as long as nothing disturbs it but the high leverage creates increased risks from any outside shock.

I'd be happily surprised if we stay above 15000 Dow (to use the most popular measure) but my expectation is lower. I remarked on the Covid thread that the markets were in "La La Land" not too many weeks ago when it was kicking around 29000. Some realism has been sinking it since then even though events have gone pretty much along the lines I predicted just using published data.
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Old 16th March 2020, 01:40 PM   #365
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Correct. The price of shares is supposed to be an emergent property. When you try to directly drive up the Dow purely on sentiment you have left the rational world of economic laws behind. Trump has been working hard to do exactly this for three years and the business world has been more than willing to catch TDS and drink the cool side.
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Old 16th March 2020, 03:13 PM   #366
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
... but slow, bull market was fueled by extraordinarily low interest rates together with increased deficit spending.
Yep, and same applied to the property market.

Now, if we could figure a way of dropping house prices by 50%...
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Old 16th March 2020, 03:26 PM   #367
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yep, and same applied to the property market.

Now, if we could figure a way of dropping house prices by 50%...
Good luck with that. Govt. subsidizing mortgages will artificially inflate housing prices. Good intentions has side effects. Always does. That's life.
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Old 16th March 2020, 03:50 PM   #368
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Good luck with that. Govt. subsidizing mortgages will artificially inflate housing prices. Good intentions has side effects. Always does. That's life.
Hell yeah - the vulture bastard banks are all advertising fancy new low rates.

Dow just holding 20k at the end of the day, only 100 points away now.

TVIX at $600.
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Old 16th March 2020, 03:57 PM   #369
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I just rang to ask the broker who told me TVIX were a bad buy at $37 how he's feeling now they're at $600.

He hung up on me!
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Old 16th March 2020, 04:41 PM   #370
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You do have that effect on people.
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Old 16th March 2020, 05:02 PM   #371
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At what point or points are you or will you sell and turn this into an earner.
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Old 16th March 2020, 06:06 PM   #372
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I sold at $400 and it doesn't bother me they've gone higher. I always had ten times as being the most I'd let it get to before selling out. Hell, I was happy at $300. You don't get this type of opportunity more than a couple in times in your entire life.

I know one guy still in. He originally spent $5000 @ $40, sold half at $200 and is currently sitting on a profit of well over 30 grand. Reckons he'll sell the remainder at $1000.

I'm trying to talk him into giving up now, but each to their own.
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Old 16th March 2020, 06:42 PM   #373
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Well done. Should have gotten onboard. This ride is not over though. There must be other investment rides out there now or when this thing moves on?
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Old 16th March 2020, 06:51 PM   #374
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Sigh....just looked at the brokerage statement, after doing this year's income tax.


I lost more money today than I made as income in 2019.



It seems like retirement is back in the theoretical realm.

I'm still not selling, because I think an awful lot of companies are undervalued or, at the very least, fairly valued, but I liked to look at my brokerage statement a lot more last month than I do today.


ETA: And....I've never felt sorry for people who complain about losing a lot in the stock market, because in order to lose a lot, you have to have a lot to lose. If you lose all you have, then you got greedy. I still have a fair amount. A lot of people my age have little or no retirement savings. I still have a fair amount, just not as much as I thought I had last month.

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Old 16th March 2020, 07:05 PM   #375
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Time for an Epicurean revival and being content with basic sustenance and good friendshp.

My industry is taking a hiding in this.
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Old 16th March 2020, 07:16 PM   #376
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
Well done. Should have gotten onboard. This ride is not over though. There must be other investment rides out there now or when this thing moves on?
The one to get on is whichever company gets the first treatment tested as useful, and the first to get vaccines made. In neither case, will it be that big a windfall, but it'll turbocharge their share price on the short term.

I don't expect to see anything as good as TVIX and this crash if I lived another hundred years, and that ain't happening, Covid or no Covid!
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Old 16th March 2020, 10:02 PM   #377
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I hate to be the one to break this to you. Whatever you just made, your nett economic situation is now going to be worse, even with this bonus.
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Old 17th March 2020, 01:26 AM   #378
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I hate to be the one to break this to you. Whatever you just made, your nett economic situation is now going to be worse, even with this bonus.
Not me, mate.

I could not be more protected against a downturn and should be in position to take advantage of it when it ends.

I'm a lot more concerned about the virus than the economy, and I'm not too bothered by that.
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Old 17th March 2020, 04:19 AM   #379
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I don't think this is correct. Economic growth and corporate profits have both been very strong. There has been a lot of speculation driving the market, but the fundamentals have been good, too. Not good enough to sustain Dow 25,000, but enough to justify some share price growth.
That may be too optimistic. The fundamentals are being cut down as many companies (especially in the travel and hospitality industry) are forced to cut back or even close. The fear is that even if the virus is overcome, a major recession may follow in its wake. Attempts to soften the recessionary blow could could trigger a major bout of inflation.

It might be time to invest in precious metals. Otherwise, Tippit may be the only person laughing.
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Old 17th March 2020, 04:24 AM   #380
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
That may be too optimistic. The fundamentals are being cut down as many companies (especially in the travel and hospitality industry) are forced to cut back or even close. The fear is that even if the virus is overcome, a major recession may follow in its wake. Attempts to soften the recessionary blow could could trigger a major bout of inflation.

It might be time to invest in precious metals. Otherwise, Tippit may be the only person laughing.
I agree. My comment was referring to the pre-Covid state. It had been suggested that the stock market rise was all due to "speculation". I was noting that it wasn't entirely. The fundamentals had been good.


Right now? The fundamentals suck.
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Old 18th March 2020, 12:24 AM   #381
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Been limit down for hours now.
Bloodbath pending.
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Old 18th March 2020, 01:39 AM   #382
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It's only removed the previous session gain. Still holding above 20k for now.
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Old 18th March 2020, 03:18 AM   #383
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
It's only removed the previous session gain. Still holding above 20k for now.
I watch sp500 a. Bit broader.
The move has 30% more without looking eccentric on charts.
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Old 18th March 2020, 03:50 AM   #384
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I agree. My comment was referring to the pre-Covid state. It had been suggested that the stock market rise was all due to "speculation". I was noting that it wasn't entirely. The fundamentals had been good.





Right now? The fundamentals suck.
The fundamentals weren't there. They were talking up a steady recovery that had been fueled by low interest rates and unfunded tax cuts as of there was an endless river of gold flowing into the stock market, with Trump cheering it on while indicating he was backing it no matter what.
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Old 18th March 2020, 09:34 AM   #385
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
That may be too optimistic. The fundamentals are being cut down as many companies (especially in the travel and hospitality industry) are forced to cut back or even close. The fear is that even if the virus is overcome, a major recession may follow in its wake. Attempts to soften the recessionary blow could could trigger a major bout of inflation.

It might be time to invest in precious metals. Otherwise, Tippit may be the only person laughing.
Metals are insane right now. Silver has an 11 handle, but I can't buy an American Silver Eagle from my preferred coin dealer for less than $19. Many other dealers are completely out of stock of both gold and silver. The spreads are something like I've never seen before. It looks like the fraudulent paper futures market sponsored by JP Morgan shorts is diverging from the physical market. I really don't know what to make of it, other than I'm not selling.
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Old 18th March 2020, 10:11 AM   #386
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And crashed through the 20k barrier without even a dead kitten on the way past.

still going, too.

Next big problem - the US $ appreciating very quickly. (Good time for the Chinese & Saudis to drop a few)
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Old 18th March 2020, 10:39 AM   #387
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
And crashed through the 20k barrier without even a dead kitten on the way past.

still going, too.

Next big problem - the US $ appreciating very quickly. (Good time for the Chinese & Saudis to drop a few)
There you go exaggerating again. It went through twice earlier today, and bounced back both times.

There's plenty of fur on that sidewalk.
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Old 18th March 2020, 10:58 AM   #388
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I just note that TVIX is approaching 1,000. That says a lot about what experts think about the stock market.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TVIX
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Old 18th March 2020, 11:18 AM   #389
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I predicted Dow 18,000. 1,000 points to go.

I didn't put my money where my mouth is, though. Before this is done, I don't think I'll have anything left but mouth.
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Old 18th March 2020, 12:51 PM   #390
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All US car factories (Ford, GM, Fiat-Chrysler) to close......temporarily.


We are so screwed.
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Old 18th March 2020, 01:14 PM   #391
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
I just note that TVIX is approaching 1,000. That says a lot about what experts think about the stock market.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TVIX
Gosh, if only some prescient person had seen it coming you could have made a lot of money out of that.

$49 at the start of this thread.

$800 right now.

I make that... an appreciation of 1632% in 23 days.
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Old 18th March 2020, 02:58 PM   #392
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Gosh, if only some prescient person had seen it coming you could have made a lot of money out of that.

$49 at the start of this thread.

$800 right now.

I make that... an appreciation of 1632% in 23 days.
I have to reiterate, great call!

When do you sell?
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Old 18th March 2020, 04:03 PM   #393
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I sold at $400. I figured ten times was plenty.
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Old 18th March 2020, 09:04 PM   #394
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Looks like the word's fresh out of dead cats - futures down another 5% after the close, currently trading at 18,982.

Next big problem - the US dollar following the opposite track to shares & commodities.

And we're still barely started on this thing.

Why yes, the world is going to end. Not in deaths, but financially. 1929, here we come...
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Old 18th March 2020, 09:16 PM   #395
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Why yes, the world is going to end. Not in deaths, but financially. 1929, here we come...
In case anyone gets upset - that is metaphorical.

As it happens, overseas investors are being somewhat protected by the leap in the US dollar - it partly offsets the share decline.
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Old 19th March 2020, 10:11 AM   #396
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Sigh....just looked at the brokerage statement, after doing this year's income tax.


I lost more money today than I made as income in 2019.



It seems like retirement is back in the theoretical realm.

I'm still not selling, because I think an awful lot of companies are undervalued or, at the very least, fairly valued, but I liked to look at my brokerage statement a lot more last month than I do today.


ETA: And....I've never felt sorry for people who complain about losing a lot in the stock market, because in order to lose a lot, you have to have a lot to lose. If you lose all you have, then you got greedy. I still have a fair amount. A lot of people my age have little or no retirement savings. I still have a fair amount, just not as much as I thought I had last month.
On what basis do you think stocks are undervalued? Apple, a fantastic company to be sure, is still selling at a 19.5 multiple. Interest rates are at historic lows, but that is due to the Federal Reserve throwing unlimited counterfeit money at the bond market for decades. Surely as the price/value of money go to zero, assets like Apple stock must get closer to infinity, but is this interest rate regime real? There have been a few unprecedented days in which both stock AND bond markets have sold off, and interest rates are slowly rising. With the rumblings in the dramatically overvalued bond market, how can you be so sure the stock market is a buy?
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Old 19th March 2020, 10:16 AM   #397
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
On what basis do you think stocks are undervalued? Apple, a fantastic company to be sure, is still selling at a 19.5 multiple. Interest rates are at historic lows, but that is due to the Federal Reserve throwing unlimited counterfeit money at the bond market for decades. Surely as the price/value of money go to zero, assets like Apple stock must get closer to infinity, but is this interest rate regime real? There have been a few unprecedented days in which both stock AND bond markets have sold off, and interest rates are slowly rising. With the rumblings in the dramatically overvalued bond market, how can you be so sure the stock market is a buy?
If I were sure, and right, I'd be rich. If I were sure, and wrong, I'd be broke. As it is, I'm not sure.

However, while Apple and the other FAANGs stocks seemed awfully pricey, I was buying stocks that had much lower P/E, or that were new stocks that had a potential for growth. I was looking for things that I thought had sustainable business models where it wasn't likely that a new upstart would take away all their business. I favored stocks that paid dividends, and while dividend yields were low, they weren't awful.

So, I bought stock in things like Carnival Cruise Lines...…

D'oh!
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Old 19th March 2020, 10:21 AM   #398
William Parcher
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
So, I bought stock in things like Carnival Cruise Lines...…

D'oh!
Are you going to sell all of your Carnival very soon?
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Old 19th March 2020, 10:27 AM   #399
Meadmaker
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Are you going to sell all of your Carnival very soon?
No I'm not.

If it does come back, it will be a great value at it's current price. The only question is whether they will be plowed under completely. I don't think they will.

To be honest, the only thing that worries me is liability. Will they be held responsible for anything bad that happened on their "princess" ships? It's a global pandemic that affected everyone, but this is America, so plenty of people will be sued. They could be driven bankrupt by the liability judgements, so I would think of them as pretty high risk right now.

Their debt is also higher than I would like. I didn't think that was a problem as they started plummeting, but it looks like this is going to be worse than I imagined, and the recovery not as quick as I imagined. Debt is going to sink a lot of companies. Hopefully, that won't include companies I own stock in.
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Old 19th March 2020, 10:54 AM   #400
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Huh - claims that this will be the biggest financial hit since WWII or the Great Depression.

Coulda sworn someone said that weeks ago.
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