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Old 2nd March 2020, 03:06 PM   #161
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CNN: The Dow finished up 1,294 points, or 5.1%, making it its best one-day point gain on record. On a percentage basis, Monday was its best day since March 2009.
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Old 2nd March 2020, 04:11 PM   #162
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Lot of jumping the gun, I feel, but give it a while.
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Old 2nd March 2020, 04:14 PM   #163
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Dead cat? Or correction of the correction?
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Old 2nd March 2020, 07:37 PM   #164
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I'd bet my life on dead cat.

Like I said, this is the Phony War part - the time when there aren't enough cases to be scary as the virus spreads. People see a whiff of hope and have dived back in on the back of more stimulus.

Once the hospitals start overflowing and schools and workplaces shut it will all come home to roost and there won't be any more stimulus available. My feeling is the banks have panicked and acted far too early in a forlorn attempt to prop prices up.

IMF sees half of global growth being shaved off by it, and I'd say they're optimistic.
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Old 2nd March 2020, 08:13 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'd bet my life on dead cat.

Like I said, this is the Phony War part - the time when there aren't enough cases to be scary as the virus spreads. People see a whiff of hope and have dived back in on the back of more stimulus.

Once the hospitals start overflowing and schools and workplaces shut it will all come home to roost and there won't be any more stimulus available. My feeling is the banks have panicked and acted far too early in a forlorn attempt to prop prices up.

IMF sees half of global growth being shaved off by it, and I'd say they're optimistic.
Well I did my part by selling 50 shares of Nvidia, about $14,000. It ended up with some large gains today, although my sale price was higher than the final closing price. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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Old 3rd March 2020, 01:55 AM   #166
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Dead cat? Or correction of the correction?
Excellent question.

The market is driven my sentiment, so perhaps it was oversold in a week when emotions were running high. A weekend for reflection and positive comments and action from central banks may mean that the recent gains are the market taking a more sober view.

Then again a number of pundits have been saying that the markets, and in particular the US market is a bubble fuelled by cheap money and deficit spending and that a major correction is well overdue.

I'm utterly rubbish at picking the market which is why I've been investing a few hundred pounds a month for the last thirty-odd years in the hope that it'll all average out .
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Old 3rd March 2020, 05:11 PM   #167
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Today the Dow was down almost 800 points. These are wild days.
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Old 3rd March 2020, 05:31 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Today the Dow was down almost 800 points. These are wild days.
Nah, I thought it was the most obvious dead cat bounce in history and even staked my life on it:

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'd bet my life on dead cat.
It's turtles all the way now. I'm sure there will be days when a few fund managers think they're seeing cheap deals, but the trend will continue.
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Old 3rd March 2020, 05:59 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post

It's turtles all the way now. I'm sure there will be days when a few fund managers think they're seeing cheap deals, but the trend will continue.
TIVX is rocking. I read an article that claimed that the S&P 500 on an enterprise value/revenue basis is 2x as overvalued as it was at the peak of the dot com bubble. This, a function of the unlimited free funny money that the Fed has enabled corporations to borrow and do buybacks. I'm not sure if this is still true after the recent selloff, but I'm sure it's close enough. Look out below?
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Old 3rd March 2020, 06:13 PM   #170
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So the Fed cut rates by 50% in an emergency meeting (9th time in history), and the DJIA still tanked by 786 points. I've never seen this kind of action in my life. Has the Fed lost control of the markets? The US equity market is roughly $30 trillion dollars. The Fed balance sheet is already ~$4 trillion. They certainly can't buy it all, can they?
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Old 3rd March 2020, 06:59 PM   #171
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
TIVX is rocking.
I'll say. Solid $120 right now. My people are in big profits.

If I'd had a hundred grand to throw in, I'd have put it all in TVIX when they were $37.

Such is life.

Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
I read an article that claimed that the S&P 500 on an enterprise value/revenue basis is 2x as overvalued as it was at the peak of the dot com bubble. This, a function of the unlimited free funny money that the Fed has enabled corporations to borrow and do buybacks. I'm not sure if this is still true after the recent selloff, but I'm sure it's close enough. Look out below?
Yeah, I wouldn't advise standing in the way of the bears right now. I see a few people in the futures market trying to do that right now. They'll get crushed again.

Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
So the Fed cut rates by 50% in an emergency meeting (9th time in history), and the DJIA still tanked by 786 points. I've never seen this kind of action in my life. Has the Fed lost control of the markets? The US equity market is roughly $30 trillion dollars. The Fed balance sheet is already ~$4 trillion. They certainly can't buy it all, can they?
Bingo!

That's exactly what I meant when I said their cannons were empty. What are they going to try next? Negative interest rates coming to a central bank near you soon!
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Old 3rd March 2020, 10:02 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'll say. Solid $120 right now. My people are in big profits.

If I'd had a hundred grand to throw in, I'd have put it all in TVIX when they were $37.

Such is life.



Yeah, I wouldn't advise standing in the way of the bears right now. I see a few people in the futures market trying to do that right now. They'll get crushed again.



Bingo!

That's exactly what I meant when I said their cannons were empty. What are they going to try next? Negative interest rates coming to a central bank near you soon!

Guess what happens to bank accounts when it's cheaper to hold cash than keep it in a bank? It ain't pretty.
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Old 4th March 2020, 03:08 AM   #173
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Dow Dives! Trump will have to call even louder for another interest rate cut now.
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Old 4th March 2020, 09:15 AM   #174
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Dow Dives! Trump will have to call even louder for another interest rate cut now.
It's up 2%...for now.
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Old 4th March 2020, 11:12 AM   #175
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
It's up 2%...for now.
Almost 3% at the moment. It's a Biden Bounce.
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Old 4th March 2020, 11:15 AM   #176
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Almost 3% at the moment. It's a Biden Bounce.
Trump will have you shot if he hears you say that.
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Old 4th March 2020, 12:14 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Almost 3% at the moment. It's a Biden Bounce.
Certainly a classic example of markets and sentiment. Now that Wall St can see it doesn't matter who wins the election, they're buoyant.

Another week of covid-19 news and it'll be all on again.

One thing is certain, anyone on the right side of the volatility will be utterly creaming it.
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Old 4th March 2020, 01:39 PM   #178
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The panic has hit the movie industry. Sony is moving back "No Time To Die" the new James BOnd movie, from May to November because of the virus.
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Old 4th March 2020, 02:49 PM   #179
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Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today.
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Old 4th March 2020, 03:48 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
The panic has hit the movie industry. Sony is moving back "No Time To Die" the new James BOnd movie, from May to November because of the virus.
Probably sensible thinking if they want a screen release.

Whether or not gatherings are stopped, it's not going to be long before people stop going to large gatherings anyway.

Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today.
Yep, it's completely schizophrenic at the moment. It's the Phony War all over - numbers aren't bad enough anywhere but Italy (of real, white people nations) to be scary, the Fed's cut rates, Biden's winning, and all is well with the world.

Give it time - Covid-19's not going away.

The irony of the market boost when a non-medicare-for-all guys rises to the top in the early stages of a pandemic isn't lost on me.
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Old 4th March 2020, 03:51 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today.
They are calling it the Biden bounce, since it was primarly caused by Biden's huge win On Supertuesday.
No doubt another round of bad virus news will cause it to tank again in the next couple of days. The markets will be up and down like a yo yo for the next few weeks,I suspect.
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Old 4th March 2020, 03:54 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Probably sensible thinking if they want a screen release.

Whether or not gatherings are stopped, it's not going to be long before people stop going to large gatherings anyway.



Yep, it's completely schizophrenic at the moment. It's the Phony War all over - numbers aren't bad enough anywhere but Italy (of real, white people nations) to be scary, the Fed's cut rates, Biden's winning, and all is well with the world.

Give it time - Covid-19's not going away.

The irony of the market boost when a non-medicare-for-all guys rises to the top in the early stages of a pandemic isn't lost on me.
Non Medicare for all does not mean no UHC. Bernie's plan was flawed; a lot of UHC advocates thought so.
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Old 4th March 2020, 05:46 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
They are calling it the Biden bounce, since it was primarly caused by Biden's huge win On Supertuesday.
No doubt another round of bad virus news will cause it to tank again in the next couple of days. The markets will be up and down like a yo yo for the next few weeks,I suspect.
or perhaps months
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Old 4th March 2020, 05:56 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Non Medicare for all does not mean no UHC. Bernie's plan was flawed; a lot of UHC advocates thought so.
You missed the point, which is that UK has national health coverage, something USA will never have.

It doesn't matter what you wrap it up as or call it, you either have free and freely available healthcare for everyone or you don't.

Most countries do.
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Old 4th March 2020, 08:51 PM   #185
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today.
Ha! Suck it, bears!

At least until tomorrow.
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Old 4th March 2020, 09:42 PM   #186
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Non Medicare for all does not mean no UHC. Bernie's plan was flawed; a lot of UHC advocates thought so.
To many negatives in that sentence for me to make sense of it.
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Old 4th March 2020, 11:19 PM   #187
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
<snip>
Bingo!

That's exactly what I meant when I said their cannons were empty. What are they going to try next? Negative interest rates coming to a central bank near you soon!
What they should be doing is producing money on a big scale. Then this would either produce inflation or increase production or a combination of both.
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Old 4th March 2020, 11:22 PM   #188
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
What they should be doing is producing money on a big scale. Then this would either produce inflation or increase production or a combination of both.
How would it increase production?
Companies aren't investing, they are just buying back stock.
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Old 5th March 2020, 01:32 AM   #189
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Futures down couple of hundred right now, doubtless on the back of emergencies being declared in multiple states of USA.

I'd say the markets will be down plenty tomorrow.
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Old 5th March 2020, 01:40 AM   #190
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
How would it increase production?
Companies aren't investing, they are just buying back stock.
If people have more money then they will want to spend it. This will increase demand. So either production goes up or inflation goes up or both.
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Old 5th March 2020, 01:44 AM   #191
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
How would it increase production?
Companies aren't investing, they are just buying back stock.
....and it's been like that for some time now.

When cheap money is available, too many companies seem to buy back stock and/or acquire other companies at vastly over-inflated prices. There seems to be comparatively little appetite for investing for the medium to long term in organically growing the company.

Then again, the management of the company are beholden to the wishes of the shareholders. If a company is in private ownership they may be more inclined to take a longer view but the focus for a lot of publicly quoted companies is the next quarter and the executives are rewarded accordingly. Why bother to institute a long term investment programme which may pay off handsomely in a few years time (perhaps when you're long gone) when you could buy back some stock and give the shareholders a nice little bump in their shareholder value ?
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Old 5th March 2020, 02:16 AM   #192
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
If people have more money then they will want to spend it. This will increase demand. So either production goes up or inflation goes up or both.
You are aware that Inflation reduces effective income until companies start raising salaries, something they have been incredibly slow to do.
Lowering rates is not a quick way to increase demand.
And supply seem to be maxed out.
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Old 5th March 2020, 03:10 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
You are aware that Inflation reduces effective income until companies start raising salaries, something they have been incredibly slow to do.
Lowering rates is not a quick way to increase demand.
And supply seem to be maxed out.
If we're talking about consumer (rather than corporate) demand then as I understand it, lowering rates can stimulate demand in two ways.

People who don't have money find it less expensive to borrow money and so are more inclined to borrow to spend. I'm not sure that a debt-fuelled buying splurge is necessarily the best thing for the US economy.

People who have cash money see it devaluing before their eyes and decide to spend and/or invest it. There are already suspicions that cheap money has caused an asset bubble, ploughing one's savings into overpriced stocks, property or other assets may not necessarily be a great idea. Then again, simply frittering away your life savings buying things you may not need doesn't seem that sensible either.

An economy which is largely powered by consumer spending is always going to be susceptible to the fickle hand on consumer sentiment. If people are worried about Coronavirus and/or the economy then they might be reluctant to go out and spend.

If were talking about corporate demand, I think you already covered it when you said that corporations are often using the cheap money to support their share price by buying back shares - which does little for the economy at large.
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Old 5th March 2020, 06:16 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
If people have more money then they will want to spend it. This will increase demand. So either production goes up or inflation goes up or both.

You've never heard of finding new markets?!
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Old 5th March 2020, 12:45 PM   #195
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Can I just drop in a quick:



Dow fires up 1200 on Biden's big win, massive rate cuts, and money dump!

Reality bites less than 24 hours later and it's lost almost all of that, currently down 980.

Jesus H Christ.

Do NOT stand in front of a rampaging bear - it will run you over and kill you on the way past.

TVIX at $142 is almost an afterthought.

People who invested five grand on my advice now have their original $5000 back in the bank and $10,000+ worth of TVIX shares.

$200, here we come!
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Old 5th March 2020, 01:13 PM   #196
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Have you always been this good at playing the fiddle?
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Old 5th March 2020, 01:24 PM   #197
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Have you always been this good at playing the fiddle?

He has been doing that for a long time.
ANd in this case, I think there is an element of hoping the virus causes the final collapse of the evil Capiitalist system, and the glorious worldwide people's revolution.
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Last edited by dudalb; 5th March 2020 at 01:44 PM.
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Old 5th March 2020, 02:30 PM   #198
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Have you always been this good at playing the fiddle?
No, because we've never had a situation previously where the disconnect between the real world and the markets was so stark.

It does nicely show that human brains can still beat algorithms from time to time, because it's absolutely clear none of the algorithms or traders picked it, so I'll gladly take all the credit for it.

Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
He has been doing that for a long time.
ANd in this case, I think there is an element of hoping the virus causes the final collapse of the evil Capiitalist system, and the glorious worldwide people's revolution.
I can see why you never applied for Randi's mio, because your mind-reading skills are appalling.

Just ask yourself - given that the entire premise of this thread is making money off the decline in the markets, how would I be aiding an anti-capitalist agenda by promoting something that is 100% capitalist?

You don't even make sense and must be kidding yourself really badly if you think you do, because the premise is idiotic.

Not to mention, at no stage have I suggested the end of the world, or sharemarkets, is nigh. Just that there will be enormous economic fallout, and it's blindingly obvious every bank and economist in the world now agrees with me, or maybe you missed the rate cuts and billions tipped into the banking system over the past few days? The early $1 Tn estimate has been updated to $2.4 Tn, and I still think they're short.

Man, I'd love to see you doing a Rorschach Test.

Every single card:

"What do you see?"

"Commies!"
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Old 5th March 2020, 04:52 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
No, because we've never had a situation previously where the disconnect between the real world and the markets was so stark.
I've been looking at various studies of the impact of pandemics on the market. There are a few that have come out recently. Harvard Business Review for example as well some older ones.

There's a stark difference between most that have come out recently ( a few days back) and those done during when there was no emerging pandemic. The former being much more positive predicting a short term, relatively minor effect.

Not surprising.

As for America, we have been slow, unlike China and the WHO, to produce usable tests. This appears to be due to the weird regulatory mechanisms that assumed tests would be produced by the private sector and regulatory jurisdictional issues between the CDC and FDA. States are still, for the most part, short of test kits, and the CDC has halted posting of the numbers of people tested. At the same time the White House has said that a million tests will be available by the end of the week. We'll see.

Meantime there is obviously significant community spread. CDC changed positions earlier this week so that doctors could actually order tests when they could get them. So we'll see significant uptick in positives shortly as test kits become available.

As this info comes out we'll see much more social distancing and concomitant economic effects. It will come into increasing conflict with the notion that coronavirus is just another flu type bug. Lots of blaming and finger pointing ahead.
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Old 5th March 2020, 05:26 PM   #200
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Got the memo at work today, in Michigan.

1. If you are the least bit sick, STAY HOME!
2. Our Seattle office is located in the same building as one of the confirmed cases in Washington state. (Not our company employee, but someone who works in the same building.)
3. One of our Michigan employees was in Seattle last week.
4. No more travel.

Fun times.

So far, the office in suburban Seattle is still open for business, but this has got to start dragging things down soon.
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