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Old 14th March 2020, 10:13 AM   #321
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
What they won't see is what would have happened without the necessary social distancing with a million plus deaths.
Well, they won't have to look too far to see it, because it's just starting to take hold on some countries with very poor healthcare.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I listen to right wing talk radio. They're already saying it. Whether they continue to say it will depend on how it plays out.
Might depend on if Der Fuhrer has it, too.
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Meanwhile, the PM of Singapore has been talking to Captain Obvious: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

Quote:
The economic fallout from the coronavirus could be more serious than the damage done by the 2008 global financial crisis for Singapore, according to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.
I think he's well under the mark.

The entire shutdown of Italy will be a massive jolt to the EU, and I believe Spain's about to go down the same path.

The whole thing with the shutdowns is that it's not going to make the virus magically disappear. It'll slow it down just enough to build up steam again later.
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Old 14th March 2020, 11:13 AM   #322
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post

Meanwhile, the PM of Singapore has been talking to Captain Obvious:

...

The whole thing with the shutdowns is that it's not going to make the virus magically disappear. It'll slow it down just enough to build up steam again later.
The Singapore PM isn't the only one talking to Captain Obvious. Your post also strikes me as both a straw man and a goal post move. I doubt if serious people believe it will magically disappear. Summer in the northern hemisphere may also slow it down.

And here's something else: Yes, the hospitality business, sports leagues, airlines will be hard hit. But the closures mean some people will save money. And some industries will be stimulated. Home entertainment systems, for example. There is likely to be pent-up demand eventually. Not soon enough to benefit Trump, I hope.

There is also the weird non-linear and even non-exponential behavior of the virus. You admit you're not sure what's going on in New Zealand, which has apparently been doing business pretty much as usual.
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Old 14th March 2020, 11:23 AM   #323
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An aside, people forget the ending of the Andromeda Strain. The virus mutates into something more benign, despite being the scariest **** in the world at first. Granted, that is fiction. But viruses are weird.

The scariest one IMO is smallpox.
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Old 14th March 2020, 11:30 AM   #324
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Something that's missing in the whole, "flattening the curve", discussion is that social distancing not only flattens the curve, it also reduces the area under the curve. And hence total infections and deaths.

For instance if R0 is initially 3.0 with no mitigation and no existing immunity, then here's what happens if social distancing reduces R0 to 1.5.

The peak is pushed further out and now occurs when approx. 1/3 have been infected. Ultimately 50% or so will get infected.

If R0 is reduced to 1.0 the peak occurs at T=0 when social distancing produces that R0 and infections decrease in a long downward ramp.

If R0 is reduced to .5, the peak will have already occurred and new infections will decline by 50% every week.

China has gotten it down to .3 and one can see the results in the daily WHO situation reports. The curve has not only been flattened, but totally squashed. It may go the route of SARS and simply effectively disappear in a few months. At least in China. Because it is so global and will be extant in many countries, China will have to keep vigilant and re-institute strong social distancing locally to keep it at bay. This should be relatively easy though because they will be identified quickly.
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Old 14th March 2020, 11:47 AM   #325
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Your post also strikes me as both a straw man and a goal post move.
No, you just don't read for context - I clarified what I meant in the very next sentence and was clearly using metaphorical licence.

Do tell me what happens when the lockdowns end, though.

Also, check out the unbelievable level of restrictions still in place in China and South Korea and they haven't stopped new infections. Restrictions will go on for months and months.

Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Summer in the northern hemisphere may also slow it down.
"May". It also "may" not. You don't base real world decisions on "may" and "might", aside from Trump, and even he's changed his tune.

Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
And here's something else: Yes, the hospitality business, sports leagues, airlines will be hard hit. But the closures mean some people will save money. And some industries will be stimulated. Home entertainment systems, for example.
Holy Zarquon, I have no idea where you studied economics, but the infinitesimal increase in a couple of businesses won't even begin to make up for the economic damage of millions of businesses losing money. You are so far from reality it's not even funny.

Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
There is also the weird non-linear and even non-exponential behavior of the virus.
I put that down to simply the lack of testing being done in many places.

If you look at countries like France, Germany, Switzerland and Norway, where they understand testing and counting, they all show exponential growth, so don't be fooled.

Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
You admit you're not sure what's going on in New Zealand, which has apparently been doing business pretty much as usual.
Until yesterday, we were.

NZ is an unusual case, because it takes at least a day to fly here from most places, so we have far fewer asymptomatic cases arriving, and whether it's seasonal or not, the outbreaks outside China all started in skiing areas and it's summer here.
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Old 14th March 2020, 01:39 PM   #326
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TOday's wave of bad news guarantees another bloodbath when the Markets open on Monday.
I am betting all of yesterday's gains will be erased.
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Old 14th March 2020, 02:19 PM   #327
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
The Singapore PM isn't the only one talking to Captain Obvious. Your post also strikes me as both a straw man and a goal post move. I doubt if serious people believe it will magically disappear. Summer in the northern hemisphere may also slow it down.

And here's something else: Yes, the hospitality business, sports leagues, airlines will be hard hit. But the closures mean some people will save money. And some industries will be stimulated. Home entertainment systems, for example. There is likely to be pent-up demand eventually. Not soon enough to benefit Trump, I hope.

There is also the weird non-linear and even non-exponential behavior of the virus. You admit you're not sure what's going on in New Zealand, which has apparently been doing business pretty much as usual.
New Zealand is a catastrophe. 20% of exports (tourism) cancelled. 70% of workers renting housing at record rent levels, many with no income now.
This is a complete disaster.
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Old 14th March 2020, 02:34 PM   #328
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
TOday's wave of bad news guarantees another bloodbath when the Markets open on Monday.
I am betting all of yesterday's gains will be erased.
Hell, I wouldn't take any bets on that - I think another trading break in the first 10-20 minutes is an absolute certainty.

The dead cat bounce on Friday was all about people desperately seeking a reason to be positive and once one bought, lots chipped in. It was always going to be fool's gold, because until this virus is gone one way or another, markets have nothing to build on.

The financial fallout is going to be astronomical, and an entire order of magnitude worse than the GFC.

When whichever talking head I quoted said $2 trillion I said it was still light. I'd hate to try to work out what the final cost will be.
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Old 14th March 2020, 04:25 PM   #329
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Hell, I wouldn't take any bets on that - I think another trading break in the first 10-20 minutes is an absolute certainty.
In fact, with the amount of bad news already this weekend, and half of it still to go before opening on Monday for people who live in odd time zones, I think 10-20 minutes is a gross over-estimate.

Under 5 minutes is my guess, and I'm going to add that trading will end up being suspended more than once.

I pity the fools who bought at +1500 on Friday. They're going to have some explaining to do.
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Old 14th March 2020, 04:28 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
In fact, with the amount of bad news already this weekend, and half of it still to go before opening on Monday for people who live in odd time zones, I think 10-20 minutes is a gross over-estimate.

Under 5 minutes is my guess, and I'm going to add that trading will end up being suspended more than once.

I pity the fools who bought at +1500 on Friday. They're going to have some explaining to do.
At least you make testable predictions.
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Old 14th March 2020, 05:21 PM   #331
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post

Holy Zarquon, I have no idea where you studied economics, but the infinitesimal increase in a couple of businesses won't even begin to make up for the economic damage of millions of businesses losing money. You are so far from reality it's not even funny.
Economics baffles me. To me, civilization seems to be hanging by a thread all the time. I'm surprised it works at all. Maybe that's why I'm not as doom-y. Of all the people infected, most are recovering. And they in turn infected other people ... most of whom will recover. At some point fear is going to recalibrate into something else, because physiologically, terror isn't particularly sustainable. A lot of congregating that would have happened over the next couple of months won't happen, and that is bound to slow things down, and beyond that I really have no predictions.
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Old 14th March 2020, 05:40 PM   #332
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Hell, I wouldn't take any bets on that - I think another trading break in the first 10-20 minutes is an absolute certainty.

The dead cat bounce on Friday was all about people desperately seeking a reason to be positive and once one bought, lots chipped in. It was always going to be fool's gold, because until this virus is gone one way or another, markets have nothing to build on.

The financial fallout is going to be astronomical, and an entire order of magnitude worse than the GFC.

When whichever talking head I quoted said $2 trillion I said it was still light. I'd hate to try to work out what the final cost will be.
The sacry thng is you seem to be taking great joy in this.
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Old 14th March 2020, 07:03 PM   #333
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
At least you make testable predictions.
And they've been pretty well on target so far.

Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Of all the people infected, most are recovering. And they in turn infected other people ... most of whom will recover.
No question, but when you've got something that is killing old people at rates of up to and over 10% of infections, and is also nailing the odd younger, healthy person, it's considered to be pretty serious.

The other problem is that it will kill a lot of other people, through operations being postponed, sick doctors and lack of ICU facilities.

And if you haven't thought about it yet, imagine what things will be like when the disease gets into a maximum security prison with 25% guard shortages.

They all seem like good reasons to try to stop the epidemic.

I'm just not at all sure it's possible.
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Old 14th March 2020, 07:05 PM   #334
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
The sacry thng is you seem to be taking great joy in this.
And you're seeing things that aren't there.

You've made this accusation several times and I even went as far to explain why you're wrong, but you clearly didn't bother reading thar, so I'm not about to do it again.

Just accept that I'm laughing my head off at a major recession and 50 million deaths and you won't need to post it again, ok?
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Old 14th March 2020, 07:36 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
And you're seeing things that aren't there.

You've made this accusation several times and I even went as far to explain why you're wrong, but you clearly didn't bother reading thar, so I'm not about to do it again.

Just accept that I'm laughing my head off at a major recession and 50 million deaths and you won't need to post it again, ok?
I honestly believe you. But I must also honestly tell you your posts have often come off as expressing a certain, um, enthusiasm as the magnitude of the epidemic and its impact have been revealed. I think this is really a combination of a natural human amazement with a novel, massive event and the difficulty of communicating nuance through the internet.

Sorry!
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Old 14th March 2020, 07:48 PM   #336
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I think markets will recover fairly rapidly once the disease sweeps past (which will IMHO only truly be complete after an effective vaccine is deployed). With only one
big concern: that investors will take this event to finally ask if the past decades of soaring stocks were only a fevered dream and an enormous over evaluation of their true values.
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Old 14th March 2020, 09:38 PM   #337
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
I think this is really a combination of a natural human amazement with a novel, massive event and the difficulty of communicating nuance through the internet.
That's fine, although I suspect it's also a lot that I use language very explicitly and that can come across as passionate.

I repeat that I called this a world-changing event a long while ago and was roundly condemned for it, so while I'm taking no satisfaction from the disease, I will enjoy rubbing faces in it on the way through.

Now we can maybe stick to the subject and not me.

Like this:

Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
I think markets will recover fairly rapidly once the disease sweeps past (which will IMHO only truly be complete after an effective vaccine is deployed).
I'm not sure it will come back fast, because so many companies and employers will be so far in the red and governments will struggle to keep people afloat. If we manage to get a vaccine this calendar year, it will be an amazing and unlikely effort.

This is going to last for a long time, and it's going to be an appallingly bad time for many. We might find the worst time is when 50% of people have had it and are sick of caring about others.


Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
With only one
big concern: that investors will take this event to finally ask if the past decades of soaring stocks were only a fevered dream and an enormous over evaluation of their true values.
There are going to be a lot of pension funds shrunk by incredible amounts, too, and those people's appetite for risk may well change.
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Old 15th March 2020, 10:08 AM   #338
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That's fine, although I suspect it's also a lot that I use language very explicitly and that can come across as passionate.

I repeat that I called this a world-changing event a long while ago and was roundly condemned for it, so while I'm taking no satisfaction from the disease, I will enjoy rubbing faces in it on the way through.

Now we can maybe stick to the subject and not me.

Like this:



I'm not sure it will come back fast, because so many companies and employers will be so far in the red and governments will struggle to keep people afloat. If we manage to get a vaccine this calendar year, it will be an amazing and unlikely effort.

This is going to last for a long time, and it's going to be an appallingly bad time for many. We might find the worst time is when 50% of people have had it and are sick of caring about others.




There are going to be a lot of pension funds shrunk by incredible amounts, too, and those people's appetite for risk may well change.
However, this doesn't fundamentally change the economics of the world. Factories will still produce. Distribution centers will still operate. This is temporary.

And yes, some companies will go out of business just because they were running too close to the edge, and will fall off, and that will have ripple effects, and things will be bad economically. And then, everything will be ok, because at the end of the day, we still know how to make automobiles and televisions, and this disease is not so incredibly bad that even if it just becomes part of our lives, it won't eliminate all economic activity. It might alter the way we live a little bit, and it will take time to adjust to that, but once the initial shock wears off, schools will reopen and people will start going to restaurants again. The restaurants might be more expensive because of higher government mandated sanitation standards.
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Old 15th March 2020, 12:21 PM   #339
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
This is temporary.
Absolutely - whatever happens, 99% of people will survive and things will return to normal.

However, the depth of the trough will take some time to grow out of.

Today's going to be an interesting opening.
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Old 15th March 2020, 02:23 PM   #340
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
I think markets will recover fairly rapidly once the disease sweeps past (which will IMHO only truly be complete after an effective vaccine is deployed). With only one
big concern: that investors will take this event to finally ask if the past decades of soaring stocks were only a fevered dream and an enormous over evaluation of their true values.
Experts are saying at least a year before a vaccine is effectively deployed. And that is assuming a vaccine is discovered very soon.
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Old 15th March 2020, 02:24 PM   #341
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Fed dropped interest rate to zero.
Might help the stock a little on Monday,but any gains will be erased by the end of thw week as the bad virus news continues.
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Old 15th March 2020, 02:45 PM   #342
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Calif. just announced large scale mitigation efforts. All people with health issues OR are over 65 are to be quarantined at home. All bars and clubs are to be closed. Restaurants are to reduce capacity 50% and re-seat based on extreme social distancing. Selected schools are to be closed based on the local situation. Further measures may be necessary and the state has the legal power to enforce things if required.
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Old 15th March 2020, 02:58 PM   #343
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All people with health issues OR are over 65 are to be quarantined at home.

Not quite accurate. They are being urged to stay indoors;not the same thing as a quarantine.. I don't think you could enforce a quarantine in practical terms.
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Old 15th March 2020, 03:18 PM   #344
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
All people with health issues OR are over 65 are to be quarantined at home.

Not quite accurate. They are being urged to stay indoors;not the same thing as a quarantine.. I don't think you could enforce a quarantine in practical terms.
Requested to stay at home.

"SACRAMENTO Gov. Gavin Newsom called Sunday for all senior citizens and residents with chronic conditions to isolate themselves at home."


That's what I heard listening to the Gov. It was also stated that if people didn't comply that authority existed to enforce it should that be necessary. It is arguably a "voluntary" quarantine. Currently.
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Old 15th March 2020, 03:29 PM   #345
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SP500 on first limit down but curiously opened near unchanged and took several minutes.
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Old 15th March 2020, 03:40 PM   #346
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Fed cuts rates to zero, and does a bunch of other stuff that involves throwing money at the problem. (No link, but you can look it up yourselves. It's easy to find.)

I'm not an economist. I know more about interest rates and economics than the average person does, but that's a bit like saying I know more about economics than a teaspoon knows.

It just seems to me that what they are doing is recognizing the enormous economic impact of this virus and/or the "social isolation" policies that are being used to slow its spread, but they are trying to treat the economic problem as if it were some sort of financial event, using the usual tools. It seems like a bad idea, and the primary effect will be to alter the value of currency, which just doesn't seem like a good idea.

The economy is going to suck for a while because people aren't working. When they don't work, they don't produce. When they don't produce, there's not much stuff.

Normally, this is caused by some strange conditions within the financial world, and perhaps triggered by a natural, or man made, disaster. e.g. the crisis of 2008 happened because people were mortgaged to the hilt, but the lenders were hiding the risk of the loans. When a sudden rise in gas prices caused some people to miss a few payments, the scam was exposed and the economy collapsed. That's kind of normal. That particular event was more extreme than normal, but the pattern was normal.

The solution involved putting a bunch of money out there so that companies had the cash to start producing again, and hire the people needed to produce.

This isn't like that. They could throw all the money they want at this crisis, and if people are afraid to go to work, they won't go to work. To my very nave eye, it looks like a recipe for inflation, but I would await a verdict from actual knowledgeable people on that.

I don't know. Seems like a very bad idea, but I admit that is an uninformed opinion.
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Old 15th March 2020, 04:55 PM   #347
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If the Fed would throw trillions at me, I promise I would boost the "Hookers and Blow" segment of the economy!
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Old 15th March 2020, 07:05 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Fed dropped interest rate to zero.
Might help the stock a little on Monday,but any gains will be erased by the end of thw week as the bad virus news continues.
It's not going to help today - futures are down 1000 after the announcement.

The only thing it might do is cost me $10 by taking more than 5 minutes to hit the stop button.

Where's that bloke who was lecturing me that governments know what to do? If my maths is right, once you start cutting rates after zero, the bank is paying you to take their money.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
Calif. just announced large scale mitigation efforts. All people with health issues OR are over 65 are to be quarantined at home.
See Japan, mate - if you want to slow this sucker down, SHUT THE DAMNED SCHOOLS!

I am convinced that's the reason other countries are passing them like an F1 car with a flat tyre.
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Old 15th March 2020, 07:39 PM   #349
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I'd been meaning to say - all the way so far there's been talk of China undergoing lower growth rates.

Today, for the first time, I see commentators suggesting they will show a contraction in the March quarter.

I feel like I need some kind of eye-popping emoji, but it would need to be one that pops out of the screen. That is just gob-smackingly bad economic news.
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Old 15th March 2020, 07:43 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Requested to stay at home.

"SACRAMENTO Gov. Gavin Newsom called Sunday for all senior citizens and residents with chronic conditions to isolate themselves at home."


That's what I heard listening to the Gov. It was also stated that if people didn't comply that authority existed to enforce it should that be necessary. It is arguably a "voluntary" quarantine. Currently.
And if someone over 65 has to go out for Gorceries?
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Old 15th March 2020, 08:12 PM   #351
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
And if someone over 65 has to go out for Gorceries?
Get them delivered.

That's why I'm frantically hiring people to do just that.

You'd better be in NZ, though - the peas will be a bit mushy by the time they get to USA.
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Old 15th March 2020, 08:14 PM   #352
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Just in case anyone's interested, I just sent this email to newspapers in NZ, along with the Prime Minister and Treasurer:

Quote:
It's now clear that Covid-19 is an earth-changing event. The sky virtually clear of planes, pollution at record lows and massive numbers of deaths that were not expected as short as 4 weeks ago, at which time, it was a Chinese problem and share markets were still humming along at near-record levels.

In the space of four weeks, thousands have died, hospital services near outbreaks have been crushed and the world economy has taken a hit that has already lost in excess of $20 trillion from share values. The hit to the world's GDP is conservatively estimated to be $2 trillion.

Around the world, billions in wages are being lost, and that will increase quickly as more jobs shut down. We will soon be running the country on a skeleton crew and most people won't be working. Kids will be at home for extended periods and daycares will be shut. The hit to the spending power of people will be unlike anything in all our history.

Then comes the bigger issue - people will be unable to pay rents and mortgages. If they're not earning, they will struggle to buy food, let alone pay for shelter.

Given that central bank rates have been slashed to zero, it seems to me that a strong case could be made for them to actually slash them to zero. That would be on the basis that banks put every mortgage on hold, at zero interest rates themselves. Mortgagees would then not need to pay their mortgage, and it would cost them nothing.

At the same time, property owners would agree to collect no rent for as long as the mortgage rates stay at zero - logically until the epidemic has passed.

That way, nobody is out of pocket, nobody is kicked out of their dwelling for non-payment and it will enable people to continue buying the basics.
If you see anything wrong with my case or maths, fire away!
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Old 15th March 2020, 08:26 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Just in case anyone's interested, I just sent this email to newspapers in NZ, along with the Prime Minister and Treasurer:



If you see anything wrong with my case or maths, fire away!
Here's what's wrong with your case.

You say it would cost banks nothing to cut mortgage rates to zero.

So, how do bank employees get paid? Do mortgage statements still get generated? Do ATMs still get stocked? Do all the things that banks do keep happening? If so, how? Volunteers?



I can see doing some sort of thing to prevent foreclosures during this period, and that, too, will hurt banks, but not nearly as much.
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Old 15th March 2020, 08:32 PM   #354
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Just in case anyone's interested, I just sent this email to newspapers in NZ, along with the Prime Minister and Treasurer:



If you see anything wrong with my case or maths, fire away!
COMMIE!
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Old 15th March 2020, 08:47 PM   #355
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Here's what's wrong with your case.

You say it would cost banks nothing to cut mortgage rates to zero.

So, how do bank employees get paid?
What work needs to be done still gets done and those people get paid.

Others are laid off and paid by the government by way of unemployment or other benefit, exactly the same as:

Restaurant & cafe workers
Fast food workers
Airline staff
Cruise ship staff
Disneyland & other attraction staff
.... a very long list of people whose income will be zero, and governments will need to take up the slack.
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Old 15th March 2020, 08:49 PM   #356
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Meanwhile, I think my 5 minutes looks a wild over-estimate. 5 seconds will be more like it.

Fed cuts rates to near zero. Dow futures are at limit down half an hour later.

Goldman Sachs predicts a -5% contraction in Q2. There aren't any words to describe how massive that is.
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Old 15th March 2020, 09:04 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
What work needs to be done still gets done and those people get paid.

Others are laid off and paid by the government by way of unemployment or other benefit, exactly the same as:

Restaurant & cafe workers
Fast food workers
Airline staff
Cruise ship staff
Disneyland & other attraction staff
.... a very long list of people whose income will be zero, and governments will need to take up the slack.
Then you have all the businesses that supply restaurants&cafes etc. And all the small service businesses from the guy who operates a hot-dog stand to hairdressers, manicurists, massage parlors and so on...
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Old 15th March 2020, 09:22 PM   #358
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Then you have all the businesses that supply restaurants&cafes etc. And all the small service businesses from the guy who operates a hot-dog stand to hairdressers, manicurists, massage parlors and so on...
Hell yeah, that's why I didn't try to make a complete list - it includes lots and lots of business types, including many that don't seem troublesome. Construction is one - with so much commercial electronics manufactured in China, tech companies are hitting supply problems, and if you don't have controls for the lights, aircond, lifts, security, etc, you don't have a building that can be used.

And I know that sort of thing is already happening. It will only get worse.

Then talk about jails. I wouldn't want to be holding shares in jail operators right now - they are going to see some serious **** happen.
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Old 16th March 2020, 01:15 AM   #359
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TVIX buyers are pretty confident the Dow hits the floor tomorrow - currently trading at $488.

This ain't no roller-coaster, it's Journey to the Centre of the Earth.

How low can it go?

It's like a reverse auction. Who will give me 20,000? 18,000? 15,000?

I thought it was starting to look oversold. Obviously not.
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Old 16th March 2020, 04:14 AM   #360
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
TVIX buyers are pretty confident the Dow hits the floor tomorrow - currently trading at $488.

This ain't no roller-coaster, it's Journey to the Centre of the Earth.

How low can it go?

It's like a reverse auction. Who will give me 20,000? 18,000? 15,000?

I thought it was starting to look oversold. Obviously not.
18,000.

Just a hunch.

But there's a factor that might make it even worse. Conventional wisdom is that if you need the money now, you keep it in cash. If you are willing to wait, you put it in stocks. People, and corporations, are going to need the money right now, so no matter how low it goes, people won't flood the market with buy orders.

In other words, I think with the recent bear market, a lot of companies are undervalued right now. However, I won't be buying them because I want to keep a cash reserve in case I'm laid off and need the money right now.

Also, as layoffs start happening, 401k orders dry up.

The only thing I don't know is when the bottom hits.

This week will tell us a lot, actually. One week ago, people were a bit nervous, but coronavirus was still not at the forefront of everyone's mind. Now, it is the only thing people are thinking about. A week from now will we be calming down, or panicking more? The number of cases is about to explode in the US. Is the panic over those cases already happening, or will it get even worse as the reality hits home?

My greatest long term fear is that the efforts to prop up the stock market will fail, but will leave a big scar, and no option to recover it when the epidemic is over, and my saved up cash will turn out not to be the best investment.
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