Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[Arcade22]

Originally Posted by dann

And could you tell us why that appears to be the only alternative you can imagine to the lax attitude to the Covid-19 epidemic in Sweden?

I only mentioned that for rhetorical effect. The reality of the situation is that the most serious problems were not going to be solved by just shutting down the entire country. It sure isn't working any miracles in Denmark. In that regard it's really strange that people get the impression that it somehow make all the difference in the world.

The people who are most vulnerable to the disease are going to need to be cared for by people who could not be tested for infection and who would lack access to sufficient protective equipment to minimize the risk of infecting them. That's the basic problem. A so called total "lockdown" would buy Sweden a little bit more time to get supplies and try to reorganize the care of the elderly to decrease the risk of infection, but at the same time cause even greater socioeconomic damage than the mix of current coercive methods and voluntary recommendations have already done.

In the end a "lockdown" is not sustainable. Just because it lowers the rate of infection does not mean that this somehow eliminates the virus. It is still there and at some point society has to return to some degree of normalcy. At that point it's going to start all over again unless you somehow can prevent it from spreading via vaccination. That's at least a year away from now, not a couple of months.

It's really telling that in other countries they are increasingly talking about "opening up" but still maintaining some specific and general restrictions. That's where Sweden is now. It's not like we are doing nothing, yet somehow that's how people choose to portray it. Sometimes jumping on the bandwagon is not worthwhile.

[Klimax]

Sweden could have tried Czech approach...

[dann]

Your defense of the Swedish corona strategy is pathetic and inconsistent:

Originally Posted by Arcade22

I only mentioned that for rhetorical effect. The reality of the situation is that the most serious problems were not going to be solved by just shutting down the entire country. It sure isn't working any miracles in Denmark. In that regard it's really strange that people get the impression that it somehow make all the difference in the world.

That depends on your defintion of "the most serious problems". I suppose your reference to "miracles", "entire country" and "all the difference in the world" is also only a rhetorical effect since no country has been entirely shut down yet.
It serves the purpose of defending a strategy that didn't want to make a difference by claiming that differences don't matter if they are not the perfect solution to the entirety of the most serious problems.

Quote:

The people who are most vulnerable to the disease are going to need to be cared for by people who could not be tested for infection and who would lack access to sufficient protective equipment to minimize the risk of infecting them. That's the basic problem. A so called total "lockdown" would buy Sweden a little bit more time to get supplies and try to reorganize the care of the elderly to decrease the risk of infection, but at the same time cause even greater socioeconomic damage than the mix of current coercive methods and voluntary recommendations have already done.

Who could not be tested or who just weren't tested? And why did they lack protective equipment?
And yes, you got that part of it right: A lockdown (why would it be so-called and in quotations marks?) would actually have made it possible to test hosptial and nursing home employees and get them into protective gear, which would have cost money, of course, which to you isn't what other people would call necessary expenses but instead "greater socioeconomic damage".
'Sorry, Granma!'

Quote:

In the end a "lockdown" is not sustainable. Just because it lowers the rate of infection does not mean that this somehow eliminates the virus. It is still there and at some point society has to return to some degree of normalcy. At that point it's going to start all over again unless you somehow can prevent it from spreading via vaccination. That's at least a year away from now, not a couple of months.

Nothing makes a lockdown (again the quotation marks used the way Trump uses them) unsustainable. And your argument is absurd: Nobody at all claims that it "somehow eliminates the virus" (not at this point, it doesn't!). Lowering the rate of infection is the whole point! And yes, when you open up again, it starts spreading again, but this time at a speed where you can prevent it from running wild until you get a vaccination. You don't simply open up, you do so in a limited and controlled fashion.
You pretend that countries using some form of lockdown will just be opening up again completely, eliminating all restrictions. You may be ignorant of the fact that this is not how it's done (DR.dk, April 6, 2020), but I think you actually know that and that you are just pretending not to know the same way you keep using your hyperbole.

Quote:

It's really telling that in other countries they are increasingly talking about "opening up" but still maintaining some specific and general restrictions. That's where Sweden is now. It's not like we are doing nothing, yet somehow that's how people choose to portray it. Sometimes jumping on the bandwagon is not worthwhile.

No, that's not where Sweden is now. This is where Sweden is now (or was two days ago: the country has since then gone up from 477 deaths to 696 - and counting):
Sweden, which refused to implement a coronavirus lockdown, has so far avoided a mass outbreak. Now it's bracing for a surge in deaths. (Business Insider, April 7, 2020)

To a very large part of humanity, trying to protect the elderly and the immuno-deficient is worthwhile in and of itself and has nothing to do with "jumping on the bandwagon."
Jumping on the bandwagon of people like Trump and Bolsonaro to avoid "socioeconomic damage" is disgusting.
I pity you, Swedish far- och morföräldrar!

[uke2se]

I really see no point in jumping to the defense of the Swedish Corona response. Either it will work in the long run, or it won't. We don't know. Nobody does. I get the feeling my government is taking the problem seriously and doesn't involve magical thinking or pseudo science. They have left scientists in charge of determining the correct course of action. These scientists may be wrong, and there are other scientists saying so. The problem is that we don't have time to test the various approaches.

We are left with two bad options, and we've picked the one who seemed best for us.

[dann]

In the current situation, it is self-evident that "we don't have time to test the various various approaches," which is why you're left with having to choose the one that doesn't seem least likely to succeed.

Quote:

Deaths per million
San Marino 1.004
Spanien 317
Andorra 298
Italien 292
Belgien 219
Frankrig 167
Holland 132
Schweiz 106
Storbritannien 105
Luxembourg 75
Sverige 68
Iran 48
Irland 48
USA 45
Danmark 38
Portugal 37
Østrig 33
Tyskland 28
Liechtenstein 26
Monaco 26
Slovenien 21
Antigua Barbuda 21
Norge 19

The most recent number: Sverige: Totalt 793 personer, Danmark: 237 personer i Danmark er nu døde.

By the way, I don't know how to describe this grotesque piece of Danish 'reporting' (My translation):

Quote:

Another 19 persons have died with coronavirus. Now 237 coronainfected persons have died, the Danish Serum Institute informs us. (...) On the positive side, the number of hospitalized patients continues to fall. Today, Thursday, 433 patients are hospitalized with coronavirus. 20 fewer than Wednesday
19 døde med coronavirus i Danmark det seneste døgn (TV2, April 9, 2020)

[uke2se]

Originally Posted by dann

In the current situation, it is self-evident that "we don't have time to test the various various approaches," which is why you're left with having to choose the one that doesn't seem least likely to succeed.



The most recent number: Sverige: Totalt 793 personer, Danmark: 237 personer i Danmark er nu døde.

By the way, I don't know how to describe this grotesque piece of Danish 'reporting' (My translation):

I just don't see how the numbers you present paint Sweden's approach as a necessarily poorer one than other the approach of other countries. Sweden's approach is unique. The nations with fewer deaths per million citizens are using the lock-down strategy, but so are the nations with more deaths.

Again, I think it's completely up in the air. If you feel that the Danish approach is better, good on you. It's good that the Danish government has chosen an approach that you feel is sensible. I feel the same for the Swedish approach. I think that it's sensible in the absence of a definitive answer.

[Arcade22]

Originally Posted by dann

In the current situation, it is self-evident that "we don't have time to test the various various approaches," which is why you're left with having to choose the one that doesn't seem least likely to succeed.



The most recent number: Sverige: Totalt 793 personer, Danmark: 237 personer i Danmark er nu døde.

By the way, I don't know how to describe this grotesque piece of Danish 'reporting' (My translation):

Your own numbers show that a "lockdown" is not a panacea for anything. The countries with the most deaths are the ones with most severe restrictions. Apparently that point keeps flying over your head.

Again, I've tried to explain this to you before but you refuse to acknowledge it: a lack of a lockdown is not the problem. It's not going change very much. The simple fact remains that the lack of preparedness for major health crises like this cannot be undone by shutting down everything.

"But-but my graphs! I'm a genius epidemiologist because I can read graphs and I'm much smarter than the Swedes!"

[bruto]

Originally Posted by applecorped

liberal disbursement of traps retards beaver growth in Sweden

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nat...ld-wild-cities

Disbursement? Are you sure you're using the right word here?

[dann]

Originally Posted by uke2se

I just don't see how the numbers you present paint Sweden's approach as a necessarily poorer one than other the approach of other countries. Sweden's approach is unique. The nations with fewer deaths per million citizens are using the lock-down strategy, but so are the nations with more deaths.

Yes, now they are! The nations with more deaths are the ones who came to their senses too late.

Quote:

Again, I think it's completely up in the air. If you feel that the Danish approach is better, good on you. It's good that the Danish government has chosen an approach that you feel is sensible. I feel the same for the Swedish approach. I think that it's sensible in the absence of a definitive answer.

It's not a question of how I feel. It appears to be in your case. In the absence of a definitive answer, it's usually recommendable to go with a preliminary one based on your gut feeling - the Trump way.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Arcade22

Your own numbers show that a "lockdown" is not a panacea for anything. The countries with the most deaths are the ones with most severe restrictions. Apparently that point keeps flying over your head.

Yes, now they are. At least, they were able to learn from their own experience. Swedes appear to be unable to learn from the experience of other countries.

Quote:

Again, I've tried to explain this to you before but you refuse to acknowledge it: a lack of a lockdown is not the problem. It's not going change very much. The simple fact remains that the lack of preparedness for major health crises like this cannot be undone by shutting down everything.

Again you resort to hyperbole. Nobody in the world has recommended "shutting down everything," but your strawman seems to comfort you. Similarly, nobody has claimed that "the lack of preparedness" can be undone, but again: Why not invent a strawman when you have no argument against the actual argument?
The superior strategy for countries that were better prepared from the beginning is the one pursued by Iceland and the Faroe Islands: Test and isolate, preferably not in their own homes if they can infect others there.

Iceland
Infected: 1616
Deaths: 6
Recovered: 633
Faroe Islands
Infected: 184
Deaths: 0
Recovered: 136
Nyeste corona-tal fra Danmark og verden: Så mange er smittede, døde og indlagte (TV2, April 9, 2020)

Quote:

"But-but my graphs! I'm a genius epidemiologist because I can read graphs and I'm much smarter than the Swedes!"

"But-but why resort to facts when hyperbole and wishful thinking are superior to knowledge about reality!"

[dann]

If you are in Sweden and get cancer, you should consider getting it some other time: Tusentals operationer ställs in – cancersjuke Ridvan en av de drabbade (SVT.se, April 9, 2020)
Translation: Thousands of operations are cancelled - cancerpatient Ridvan is one of those who are affected

Quote:

Allting handlar om Stockholm har alltid gjort och kommer alltid att göra. Det bästa hade varit om Skåne tillhört Danmark, då hade vår gräns varit stängd
Lars Kruuse
Senaste nytt om coronaläget i Malmö och Skåne – chatta här (Aftonbladet, April 9, 2020)

(Probably a disappointed nationalist, I don't know.)

[CaptainHowdy]

Originally Posted by applecorped

Yes, one wonders if certain readers understood.


Or not. It's a somewhat niggardly interpretation.

I don't what made me think of this but are African Swedes or other immigrant communities in Sweden suffering disproportionately from the coronavirus the way African Americans are?

[Arcade22]

Originally Posted by dann

"But-but why resort to facts when hyperbole and wishful thinking are superior to knowledge about reality!"

"Wishful thinking" is that a danish communist without a clue somehow knows better than Sweden's leading epidemiological experts, bureaucrats and managers of the healthcare system because he can google up news articles. In fact they are IDIOTS compared to you and your graphs. You know better than all of them.

[Arcade22]

Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy

I don't what made me think of this but are African Swedes or other immigrant communities in Sweden suffering disproportionately from the coronavirus the way African Americans are?

Yes. At least in some areas where immigrants make up a large majority of the population the amount of people who have been infected is way above the norm.

This is at least partially due to the fact that the authorities did not inform them sufficiently, as many immigrants in these areas are more or less cut-off from the rest of Swedish society because of language barriers and a tendency of self-segregation among their own communities. The elderly are especially unlikely to learn Swedish or otherwise interact with native Swedes, meaning that they are unlikely to have been informed about the need to maintain social distancing and self-isolation.

Edit: Again, a large source of deaths are from the inability to protect the elderly because of among other things a more or less complete lack of protective equipment.

[uke2se]

Originally Posted by dann

Yes, now they are! The nations with more deaths are the ones who came to their senses too late.

Well, in that case, there's really no use for us to change our strategy either, is it?

Originally Posted by dann

It's not a question of how I feel. It appears to be in your case. In the absence of a definitive answer, it's usually recommendable to go with a preliminary one based on your gut feeling - the Trump way.

Yes, to me it's a question of how I feel, because I don't know. You don't know either. I trust that my government is not putting my and the people I love's lives at risk out of malice or even stupidity. The rules they have set up might be wrong-headed, but we don't know that yet, and the numbers you have presented do not show that.

I understand that it's provoking a lot of people who are suffering under a lock-down that other people aren't. I am starting to believe that this is the main reason for this ire against Sweden.

[uke2se]

Originally Posted by Arcade22

"Wishful thinking" is that a danish communist without a clue somehow knows better than Sweden's leading epidemiological experts, bureaucrats and managers of the healthcare system because he can google up news articles. In fact they are IDIOTS compared to you and your graphs. You know better than all of them.

His political persuasion is not relevant.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Arcade22

"Wishful thinking" is that a danish communist without a clue somehow knows better than Sweden's leading epidemiological experts, bureaucrats and managers of the healthcare system because he can google up news articles. In fact they are IDIOTS compared to you and your graphs. You know better than all of them.

No, not better than all of them: Swedish scientists call for evidence-based policy on COVID-19 (For Better Science, April 7, 2020).
Unlike you, I just think that evidence-based science is superior to wishful thinking - in particular in questions of health and medicine.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Arcade22

Edit: Again, a large source of deaths are from the inability to protect the elderly because of among other things a more or less complete lack of protective equipment.

No, it's not. It has nothing to do with "inability". It has everything to do with a refusal to do anything about it. Besides, a "complete lack of protective equipment" is one of the reasons why a lockdown would have served the purpose of slowing down the virus until that protective equipment had been acquired, but ... sorry, Granma, ... that's your problem!

Quote:

Sweden's "curve" -- the rate of infections and deaths caused by coronavirus -- is certainly steeper than that of many other European countries with stricter measures. A study by Imperial College London estimated that 3.1% of the Swedish population was infected (as of March 28) -- compared to 0.41% in Norway and 2.5% in the UK.
As for deaths, by April 8, coronavirus accounted for 67 fatalities per 1 million Swedish citizens, according to the Swedish Health Ministry. Norway had 19 deaths per million, Finland seven per million. The number of deaths rose 16% on Wednesday.
Sweden challenges Trump -- and scientific mainstream -- by refusing to lock down (CNN, April 10, 2020)

[dann]

Originally Posted by uke2se

Well, in that case, there's really no use for us to change our strategy either, is it?

There's every reason to change your strategy:

Quote:

Söderberg-Nauclér says the situation in Stockholm, where the great majority of the country's infections have occurred, is "lost," but adds: "It is not too late for rest of the country. I wish we would lock down and take control of regions not affected in same way."
Sweden challenges Trump -- and scientific mainstream -- by refusing to lock down (CNN, April 10, 2020)

Quote:

Yes, to me it's a question of how I feel, because I don't know. You don't know either. I trust that my government is not putting my and the people I love's lives at risk out of malice or even stupidity. The rules they have set up might be wrong-headed, but we don't know that yet, and the numbers you have presented do not show that.

I understand that it's provoking a lot of people who are suffering under a lock-down that other people aren't. I am starting to believe that this is the main reason for this ire against Sweden.

The rules that they have set up are wrong-headed, and your own attitude is based on nothing but feelings and trust. It is true that many things will only be known when this pandemic is over, but you refuse to learn from what we do know at this point, which means that all you do is pick sides: You choose to trust that your "government is not putting my and the people I love's lives at risk out of malice or even stupidity" over the recommendations of the WHO:

Quote:

The World Health Organization (WHO) is skeptical of Sweden's approach. Noting a fresh surge in the country's infections, the WHO told CNN Wednesday that it's "imperative" that Sweden "increase measures to control spread of the virus, prepare and increase capacity of the health system to cope, ensure physical distancing and communicate the why and how of all measures to the population."
Sweden challenges Trump -- and scientific mainstream -- by refusing to lock down (CNN, April 10, 2020)

Which, by the way, is one point where Trump seems to agree with the Swedish government.

[dann]

Originally Posted by uke2se

His political persuasion is not relevant.

Don't take away the only argument he's got: ad hominem.

[dann]

Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy

I don't what made me think of this but are African Swedes or other immigrant communities in Sweden suffering disproportionately from the coronavirus the way African Americans are?

As in all other parts of the world, when the virus has been introduced into a country by rich people returning from holidays in infected areas, poor people will suffer disproportionally as it spreads to them. At the beginning of the epidemic in Denmark, the number of infections was highest in the affluent neighborhoods, but at this point it seems to have spread to the municipalities with the highest number of immigrants as well while the rich people are either working from home or escaping to their second homes, infecting new populations - or sometimes combining both options.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by uke2se

I understand that it's provoking a lot of people who are suffering under a lock-down that other people aren't. I am starting to believe that this is the main reason for this ire against Sweden.

I don't know about that. I keep getting directed to the same National Review Online article that praises this strategy by people who ask, "Why can't we be like Sweden instead of being locked down!?"

The article is four days old though, and about one hundred people have died every day since it came out.

I would say that is the reason why the article doesn't persuade me, not jealousy.

[dann]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

I don't know about that. I keep getting directed to the same National Review Online article that praises this strategy by people who ask, "Why can't we be like Sweden instead of being locked down!?"

The article is four days old though, and about one hundred people have died every day since it came out.

I would say that is the reason why the article doesn't persuade me, not jealousy.

One hundred people a day, that is considerably fewer than in Sweden. The problem is that when a lockdown starts, it takes some time until the people who have already been infected stop being hospitalized and dying. It takes a couple of weeks to become noticeable in the number of hospitalizations and deaths.

Take a look at the three graphs: Indlagte på danske hospitaler = Hospitalizations in Denmark: https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-...de-og-indlagte (TV2, April 10, 2020)
The three graphs show: 1) total number of coronavirus patients hospitalized, 2) those in intensive care and 3) those on respirators/ventilators.
And the next one, Dødsfald I Danmark = Deaths in Denmark, in total and day by day.

Lockdowns work, but they should have been implemented much sooner.

In the meantime, you hear insane arguments like, 'OK, så old people are dying, but that is not because we don't have a lockdown, that's just due to "a more or less complete lack of protective equipment."'
I don't know what the hell people like this think is supposed to happen during a lockdown!

[dann]

Meanwhile:
Coronaviruset stoppar cellprovtagningar i flera regioner (SVT.se, April 10, 2020)
Professorn om pausade cellprov: “Det är ett jätteproblem” (SVT.se, April 10, 2020)

[PhantomWolf]

Originally Posted by dann

Lockdowns work, but they should have been implemented much sooner.

Yup, we're into week 3 (of lock down) here now, and our active cases have dropped or remained steady for the past 4 days and the number of cases per day have halved since last week. As of today we had 1,283 cases, 44 new cases and 56 reported recoveries making 373 recoveries, with just 2 deaths so far. We've done around 35,000 tests.

Quote:

In the meantime, you hear insane arguments like, 'OK, så old people are dying, but that is not because we don't have a lockdown, that's just due to "a more or less complete lack of protective equipment."'
I don't know what the hell people like this think is supposed to happen during a lockdown!

Yeah this makes me quite mad, I work in a care village, and it's possible to lock it down as long as people are sensible and follow the rules even without PPE.

[Myriad]

Originally Posted by dann

By the way, I don't know how to describe this grotesque piece of Danish 'reporting' (My translation):

Why? Do you think the information reported was inaccurate?

Or do you think they were implying that 19 deaths accounted for most of the releases from the hospital, over a time period when no new hospitalizations nor releases for reasons other than deaths were taking place?

[dann]

Originally Posted by Baylor

As of this post, Norway has more confirmed corona virus cases per capita than the US: 1 confirmed case for every ~950 persons in Norway. 1 confirmed case for every ~1,050 persons in the US

And as of this post, the USA (51 per million) now has more confirmed deaths per capita than Norway (20 per million). The USA also has 466.299 confirmed cases of coronavirus infections, Norway has 6.219, and since hardly anybody in the USA is being tested, not even people who suspect that they've come down with Covid-19, it is fair to assume that millions of Americans are now infected.

What do those numbers tell you, Baylor?

They tell me that Norway is doing its best to test and then isolate as many as possible, and that the USA is headed by a lying, unscrupulous dimwit.
Nyeste corona-tal fra Danmark og verden: Så mange er smittede, døde og indlagte (TV2, April 10, 2020)

[dann]

Originally Posted by Myriad

Why? Do you think the information reported was inaccurate?

No, those numbers are pretty reliable.

Quote:

Or do you think they were implying that 19 deaths accounted for most of the releases from the hospital, over a time period when no new hospitalizations nor releases for reasons other than deaths were taking place?

Yes. You do the numbers: 20 minus 19. It is possible that one or two of the patients to die were never hospitalized, but it's not very likely.

[dann]

Doctors in Sweden receive a letter telling them how to distinguish between coronavirus patients, i.e. which patients won't receive intensive care if hospitals run out of hospital beds in intensive-care units:
Dokument sendt til læger: Sverige forberedt på at prioritere mellem coronapatienter (TV2, April 10, 2020)
Dokument visar: De prioriteras bort från intensivvård (Aftonbladet, April 10, 2020)

Originally Posted by Arcade22

Sweden is cruel and uncaring country where the strong become stronger and the weak are weeded out.

Yes. I wish it weren't so.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by dann

One hundred people a day, that is considerably fewer than in Sweden.

No, that is Sweden!

[dann]

Yes, I think you are right. But how much is Japan?!

ETA: Japan has only 99 deaths??? Amazing! People can't appreciate their grandparents much if they want to abandon the Japanese strategy in favor of the Swedish way of doing things.

[dann]

Quote:

Samma dag som Anders Tegnell sa att smittspridningen i Stockholm började ”plana ut” registrerades fler nya fall än någonsin.
Det är fortfarande hög smittspridning i huvudstaden, uppger regionen.
– Just när Folkhälsomyndigheten gick ut kände jag inte riktigt att jag hade samma bild, säger smittskyddsläkare Per Follin.
Region Stockholm: För tidigt att tala om utplaning: Uppmanar till att äta påskmiddag 5-7 juni istället (Aftonbladet, April 10, 2020)

Translation (I'm not as fluent in Swedish as in Danish, dann):
On the day when Anders Tegnell said that the spread of the virus was "evening out," more new cases than ever were registered.
There is still a high degree of contamination in the Swedish capital, the region says.
- Just when the Health Authority made its statement, I didn't really feel that I had the same impression, Per Folin, MD of infections.
Region Stockholm: To early to talk about flattening of the curve: Recommends having Easter lunches June 5 to 7 instead


The top advisor on Covid-19 in Sweden, Anders Tegnell, appears to be playing the pandemic down much like Trump.

[uke2se]

I suppose the only thing I can say is that Sweden isn't going to drastically change course. We might (and probably will) increase restrictions incrimentally as things get worse, but we're not going to lock down the country tomorrow. If the strategy that the government has chosen turns out to be wrong when all accounts are tallied after the crisis is complete, there will be a reckoning. Until then, we'll keep doing our thing.

I work for the government, and our department has presented an internal plan of action should the infected cases increase dramatically in our region. Step one is to send home people who are identified as having increased risk - other diseases, smokers, obese people etc. They would work from home. The next step is to have a skeleton crew manning posts and only perform absolute necessary tasks. The last step is a closing of the department. Every escalation is dependent on advice from Folkhälsomyndigheten (Department of Public Health). Right now, if anybody has mild symptoms they stay home under quarantine. Otherwise, it's business more or less as usual, although that is certainly not quite true.

There are much fewer people out an about than normal. Businesses are taking measures to avoid crowding. Went shopping for wine yesterday and had to queue outdoors, two meters behind one person and two in front of the next. People are following the rules as best they can. There's no real siege mentality yet, but there's certainly tension in the air.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by dann

Yes, I think you are right. But how much is Japan?!

ETA: Japan has only 99 deaths??? Amazing! People can't appreciate their grandparents much if they want to abandon the Japanese strategy in favor of the Swedish way of doing things.

Yeah, but I realize my posts may be confusing.

To explain, a lot of people wanting to follow the Swedish model are friends of mine in the UK, Canada, NZ etc...

Here in Japan, we have only just started implementing a state of emergency in Osaka and Tokyo and a few other prefectures. One person who sent me that link does have a pub in Osaka which he has just shut for the duration of the state of emergency. Other pubs and restaurants are being strongly encouraged to do the same. That said, a lot of other non-essential businesses like Pachinko parlours seem to be going on as before. Most shops are still open, the hairdresser's across from me are open.

It's true that the schools have been closed since the end of February in these prefectures, but in other places the schools are opening up again.

On top of that, rush hour is continuing pretty much as before with crowded trains and people simply going to work even if they live in Osaka and work in Kyoto.

It's quite a mystery why there has not been an explosion of deaths in Japan yet.

[Arcade22]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

It's quite a mystery why there has not been an explosion of deaths in Japan yet.

Well if the forums amateur epidemiologists recommendations are anything to go by the best way is simply to copy the countries doing well without even considering wheter the situations are even similar. If Japan does something and it is working (at least for the moment) then obviously it must have the same effect here.

Who cares what experts, with an intimate picture of what is feasible, think? They are COMPLETE IDIOTS. You don't even need to take a basic introductory university course in biology to see that it's obvious, based on this graph I just saw on facebook, that we must rally to the great Japanese way immediately!

[dann]

I seem to have offended our resident Swedish virus expert. The Swedish primeminister seems to disagree with him:

Quote:

I en intervju i SVT:s Helgstudion under påskaftonsmorgonen uppger statsminister Stefan Löfven att Sverige kunde ha varit bättre förberett på pandemin.
– Beredskapen har inte varit tillräckligt bra. Det är uppenbart för alla.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (Aftonbladet, Apri 11, 2020)

My translation:
In an interview in Swedish Television's (SVT) holiday studios on the morning of Easter Night, primeminister Stefan Löfven says that Sweden could have been better prepared for the pandemic.
- We were not sufficiently prepared. That is obvious to everybody.

Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, April 11, 2020)

This time, Trump is actually right about one thing:
Conditions in the USA could have been much worse if the Swedish model had been adopted. Conditions are worse in Sweden!

Sverige
Deaths: 870
Deaths per million: 87
USA
Deaths: 18.777
Deaths per million: 57

[dann]

Originally Posted by uke2se

If the strategy that the government has chosen turns out to be wrong when all accounts are tallied after the crisis is complete, there will be a reckoning.

But a reckoning doesn't really help anybody. It may help another politician get elected to replace the current PM, but that's about it.

Quote:

Right now, if anybody has mild symptoms they stay home under quarantine.

Unfortunately, that doesn't help much:

Quote:

11 internationale forskningstudier viser, at personer uden symptomer i væsentlig grad smitter andre. Både danske og internationale topforskere har til avisen vurderet, at det er veldokumenteret, at personer uden symptomer sagtens kan bære sygdommen videre.
(TV2, April 2, 2020)

Translation:
11 international research studies show that people without symptoms infect others to a considerable degree. Danish as well as international top scientists have told the paper (Berlingske) that it is well-documented that people without symptoms can transmit the disease to others.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Arcade22

Well if the forums amateur epidemiologists recommendations are anything to go by the best way is simply to copy the countries doing well without even considering wheter the situations are even similar. If Japan does something and it is working (at least for the moment) then obviously it must have the same effect here.

Who cares what experts, with an intimate picture of what is feasible, think? They are COMPLETE IDIOTS. You don't even need to take a basic introductory university course in biology to see that it's obvious, based on this graph I just saw on facebook, that we must rally to the great Japanese way immediately!

You forgot to mention that I'm a communist, but apart from that, your post is consistent with your previous contributions to this thread.

[dann]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Yeah, but I realize my posts may be confusing.

To explain, a lot of people wanting to follow the Swedish model are friends of mine in the UK, Canada, NZ etc...

Here in Japan, we have only just started implementing a state of emergency in Osaka and Tokyo and a few other prefectures. One person who sent me that link does have a pub in Osaka which he has just shut for the duration of the state of emergency. Other pubs and restaurants are being strongly encouraged to do the same. That said, a lot of other non-essential businesses like Pachinko parlours seem to be going on as before. Most shops are still open, the hairdresser's across from me are open.

It's true that the schools have been closed since the end of February in these prefectures, but in other places the schools are opening up again.

On top of that, rush hour is continuing pretty much as before with crowded trains and people simply going to work even if they live in Osaka and work in Kyoto.

It's quite a mystery why there has not been an explosion of deaths in Japan yet.

Do people wear masks? When hairdressers open up again in Denmark (and I could do with a haircut by now! ), I think they will be expected to wear masks - and wash their hands a lot.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by dann

Do people wear masks? When hairdressers open up again in Denmark (and I could do with a haircut by now! ), I think they will be expected to wear masks - and wash their hands a lot.

Looking out my window, I'd say about close to 90% of people cycling past are wearing masks.

Yeah, I think hairdressers and others do too.

Still, a bit hard to eat dinner while wearing a mask.