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#281 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sweden
Posts: 6,768
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By the way, one of the reasons why there's a delay in the reporting of Swedish deaths is because they have to test those who are suspected to have been infected at the time of death. They are generally not going to prioritize the testing of the dead so there ends up being a backlog.
It's not as if they are supposed to stay as "suspected" deaths forever. They are either going to be confirmed to have been infected and then subsequently reported in to the FHM or they are confirmed not to have been infected. The statistics show the number of people with confirmed covid-19 who have died, regardless of the cause of death. |
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We would be a lot safer if the Government would take its money out of science and put it into astrology and the reading of palms. Only in superstition is there hope. - Kurt Vonnegut Jr And no, Cuba is not a brutal and corrupt dictatorship, and it's definitely less so than Sweden. - dann |
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#282 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,746
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#283 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,746
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#284 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,746
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No one in this state is arresting or even fining anyone. The governor and mayors have announced the importance, maybe a few parking tickets were given out in closed state parks, and a cruiser might park at a crowded city beach to encourage people to stop crowding.
They did arrest a preacher in another state for holding a crowded service but he was out the next day. You don't need to drag everyone to jail (China) or beat them back into their hovels (South Africa) to get people to comply. |
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#285 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,746
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#286 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sweden
Posts: 6,768
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We would be a lot safer if the Government would take its money out of science and put it into astrology and the reading of palms. Only in superstition is there hope. - Kurt Vonnegut Jr And no, Cuba is not a brutal and corrupt dictatorship, and it's definitely less so than Sweden. - dann |
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#287 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: sweden
Posts: 5,547
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Benford's law of controversy - Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available |
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#288 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: sweden
Posts: 5,547
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Benford's law of controversy - Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available |
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#289 |
Banned
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 20,145
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it lives!!!
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#290 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: sweden
Posts: 5,547
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Benford's law of controversy - Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available |
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#291 |
Show me the monkey!
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 25,728
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OMG, an icerat sighting. More rare than Bigfoot.
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Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot. |
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#292 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: sweden
Posts: 5,547
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Benford's law of controversy - Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available |
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#293 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 30,954
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That would certainly be significant.
Quote:
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I don't trust atoms. They make up everything. |
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#294 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,253
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This call was excusable at the time when it was assumed that the stage of contagion was when people were showing symptoms of Covid-19. At this point, it is well known that people infected with the virus are actually contagious even in the early stage when they don't yet show any symptoms at all - and that some people never show any symptoms, which doesn't prevent them from passing the infection on to others. That is also why the testing of people (and not just the ones showing symptoms), isolating those tested positive, and tracing down and testing people they had come into contact with has been the most successful approach to slowing down (or even putting a stop to!) the spreading of the disease: Færøerne! So you are right about the dishonesty of Anders Tegnell and his co-conspirators. At the beginning of the pandemic, they could be excused. Now they no longer can. ETA: And even after the symptoms have disappeared, there is no reason to assume that you are no longer contageous. Only testing can tell: COVID-19 Coronavirus: How Long Are You Contagious And Do Symptoms Last? (Forbes, April 21, 2020) |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#295 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Way way north of Diddy Wah Diddy
Posts: 27,224
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I love this world, but not for its answers. (Mary Oliver) Quand il dit "cuic" le moineau croit tout dire. (When he's tweeted the sparrow thinks he's said it all. (Jules Renard) |
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#296 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,253
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It wasn't. That's my point! Latest news from Sweden:
Quote:
Sweden withdraws two coronavirus reports: They justified their strategy, Danish professor says
Quote:
- That is a difficult question, and I don’t have the answer, and I don’t know if we will ever have the answer. Swedish epidemiologist acknowledges false estimate of the number of deaths – but defends the strategy = I don’t want to know the answer, and I will continue to dispute the obvious answer!
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[url=https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/folkhalsomyndigheten-3]More than 2,000 corona-infected have died in Sweden[/urll] Folkshälsomyndigheten drar tillbaka rapport (SVT.se, April 22, 2020) Public Health Agency of Sweden withdraws report
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Much concern when municipalities don’t inform about coronavirus at nursing homes |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#297 | |||
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 28,914
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There was a BBC report on this in which the reporter spoke to politicians and to Anders Tegnell about this policy. He also talks to the critics of the policy.
It seems everything thinks they called it correctly (although Anders does admit that maybe more have died than should have done):
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"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#298 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 28,914
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And yet Sweden is most similar - from what I can see - to Japan. Maybe the two big differences with Sweden and Japan is that Japan has closed schools and just about everybody wears face masks.
I took a bike ride round the town today (first time in a few weeks although I usually walk around the neighbourhood with my son on his bicycle). I went to pick up lunch today from MacDonalds (we ordered online, received a number on a smartphone and just turned up to pick it up off the counter). I would say that most shops appeared to be open. Clothes shops, hairdressers, bakeries, convenience stores, fast food restaurants, a coffee shop, a shoe shop, drugstores, electronic goods shops, etc... Some had created "social distancing theatre" with people on the door admitting customers in sporadically, although the cash registers still had lines of people that doubled back on themselves as they snaked to the front with very little consideration for how the customers could keep themselves apart. There are see-through plastic curtains at the cash registers of some shops, and most shops have doors open to get the air to circulate. Overall, though, Japan is far less locked down than most European countries as far as I know with the possible exception of Sweden. Japan now has around 300 deaths, so things are still growing here, but not at a breakneck speed. I think it remains pretty mysterious why things are not worse here yet. |
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"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#299 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 30,954
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For those who are interested, the podcast The Bunker Daily yesterday was talking about Sweden's approach to this. I didn't actually listen to much of it because, well, some guests are more interesting than others, but anybody particularly interested in the subject might find it worth listening to.
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I don't trust atoms. They make up everything. |
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#300 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,253
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#301 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,253
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Deaths per millon (TV2, April 24, 2020) Sweden: 214 (total 2,152) USA: 152 (total 50,114) Denmark: 70 (total 403) Norway: 37 (total 199) |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#302 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,746
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#303 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,253
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Är Sverige på väg mot en katastrof? (Aftonbladet.se, April 25, 2020)
Is Sweden headed for a disaster? All kinds of graphs and curves comparing Sweden with countries like Spain, Italy and the USA - and towards the end with the other Nordic countries. |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#304 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,253
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Har Island nedkæmpet coronavirus? Prognose viser nul smittede i slutningen af måneden (TV2.dk, April 25, 2020)
Has Iceland defeated the coronavirus? Prognosis says nobody with infections by the end of this month Iceland’s strategy has been 1) testing, 2) quarantine and self-isolation, 3) tracking down. A taskforce of 60 managed to trace 92% of all cases. A large number of the people tested positive were people who had already been quarantined on suspicion alone. For a couple of days, they have registered no new infections. And the vast majority of those infected have now recovered. See graphs in the article. Tegnell: Enögt att enbart se till dödstalen (SVT.se, April 25, 2020) Tegnell: One-eyed to look only at the number of deaths Deaths per 100,000 Sweden: 214 (total 2,152) USA: 158 (total 51,949) Denmark: 70 (total 418) Norway: 37 (total 199) Finland: 32 (total 177) Iceland: 30 (total 10) |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#305 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,253
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Frontberetning fra Sverige: - Det er kaos (TV2.dk, April 25, 2020)
Report from the frontline in Sweden: - It’s chaos
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#306 |
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Starship Wanderer - DS9
Posts: 13,284
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You can still do better than that:
Czech Republic: 21,8 (218) |
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#307 |
Ewige Blumenkraft
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 18,858
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I have taken some time today to research the situation in Belarus where we have heard that Uncle Luka has categorized this as a "mass psychosis". Numbers of infected seem to grow in recent days from a low basis while they do a lot of testing, but there are demonstrations (funnily allowed in the "last dictatorship in Europe" while they are banned everywhere else), and a petition signed by 150K people (of a bit under 10 million Belarussians) that demand to be locked down like in "the West" (or Russia).
Here is an interesting op-ed on one of the two sites I added to my news feeds while researching.
Originally Posted by belarusfeed
(I don't think there is enough interest for a "how Belarus does it" thread as I seem to be the first who was curious enough to look it up at all. If the mods disagree please do a sensible split) |
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I studied matter for all of my life just to find that there is no such thing - Hans-Peter Dürr |
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#308 |
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Starship Wanderer - DS9
Posts: 13,284
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Even dictatorships occasionally allow mass gatherings and token demonstrations. To demonstrate "people" part of name.
Also dictatorships often like to pretend there is no problem until it explodes in their face. In this regard Belarus is following in excellent footsteps of China, Russia and co... |
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#309 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: sweden
Posts: 5,547
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Benford's law of controversy - Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available |
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#310 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,472
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These are based on models, though.
The problem is that one cannot model human behavior properly. That's the big problem we here in Germany are facing right now with loosening restrictions. Yes, masks show a potential of being very effective. But there are some effects that could counter effect them, like people not using them correctly, or people getting feeling safe and stepping closer to others (that's actually happening). For instance, explaining how it works and appeals alone did not work here. Only after it was made mandatory, with police checks and (at least publishing a list of) fines people took it seriously and actually DID do something. Models can give you an idea what restrictions to employ or to loosen up. But then you have to wait, see how the people actually react (which may not be as intended), and how the numbers develop. Which means waiting at least something like two weeks to see the real effects. |
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#311 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: sweden
Posts: 5,547
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It was my understanding the first model used actual data from an outbreak. Looking for clarification.
Quote:
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Models can give you an idea what restrictions to employ or to loosen up. But then you have to wait, see how the people actually react (which may not be as intended), and how the numbers develop. Which means waiting at least something like two weeks to see the real effects.[/quote] |
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Benford's law of controversy - Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available |
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#312 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,746
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#313 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 8,394
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#314 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,253
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#315 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,253
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Anders Tegnell seems to be (deliberately) incapable of understanding the difference between his own pandemic response, i.e. business as (almost) usual until the majority of the population has been infected, and the response in other countries where they chose to lock down major parts of social life until the spread of the virus had been slowed down enough to start slowly and cautiously opening up again:
Sveriges statsepidemiolog: Danmark begynder at rette sig efter den svenske vej (DR.dk, April 26, 2020) Sweden’s national epidemiologist: Denmark is beginning to follow the Swedish strategy |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#316 |
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Starship Wanderer - DS9
Posts: 13,284
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I knew somebody will try to include USA. But then they still have state governments and they took varying actions independent of federal government. So not correct example to include. Trump might like to pretend to be big dog, but ultimately he has not as much power as Lukašenko and co. (One of main differences between presidential republic and dictatorship - limit on power)
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#317 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 14,172
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Dann, a question for a Dane:
I am active in a national health related organization who's sphere of interest includes geriatric care. My counter part in Denmark is telling me that Denmark isn't counting Covid19 deaths at geriatric homes. I wouldn't put much stock in such a rumor normally, but considering the source, I thought I'd check with a second opinion. What does Danish media say? |
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Before you say something stupid about climate change, check this list. "If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. " Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1 |
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#318 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,253
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Denmark counts all corona deaths. Could it be that your Danish source thinks that there are no separate statistics for deaths in nursing homes? You should ask them to provide a link of some kind.
I assume that the vast majority of deaths (maybe all deaths) from Covid-19 are in ICUs. I can't imagine that any difference is made between where people were before they were transferred to a hospital and then to an ICU and placed on ventilators/respirators. I very recently saw the definition of what counts as a death from the virus, and I think it was anyone who dies from whatever cause if that person has been tested positive for the virus in the last two months. And then, of course, there are the post-mortem tests. The first registered Covid-19 death in Denmark was a patient who died from a heart condition but was tested positive for the virus post mortem. I'll try to find the official defintion of Covid-19 deaths in Denmark. In the meantime: Deaths per million (total) (TV2.dk, April 29, 2020) Sweden: 235 (2,355) USA: 177 (58,355) Denmark: 75 (434) Norway: 38 (206) Finland: 36 (199) Iceland: 30 (10) Percentage of population tested - Percentage of positive tests Sweden: 0.7 – 14.1 Finland: 1.1 – 6.5 Denmark: 1.7 – 7.8 Norway: 2.7 – 4.9 Denmark cases of hospitalizations and deaths peaked April 1 or April 2: Denmark: April 1 or 2 --> April 28 Hospitalized: 535 --> 284 In ICU: 153 --> 66 On ventilators/respirators: 138 --> 50 Deaths per day: 20 --> 6 |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#319 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 14,172
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Before you say something stupid about climate change, check this list. "If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. " Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1 |
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#320 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,253
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Lande opgør antallet af døde forskelligt: Der kan være et mørketal - også i Danmark (TV2.dk, March 31, 2020)
This one is as offical as it gets, and it contains ”Tal og fakta om COVID-19 på plejehjem”: Udbrud med COVID-19 (Statens Serum Institut) This is their report from yesterday: COVID-19 (Statens Serum Institut, April 28, 2020) |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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