ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags Coronavirus , diseases

Reply
Old 7th July 2020, 04:22 PM   #281
Max_mang
Critical Thinker
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 420
Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I had my blood taken for an antibody test 2 weeks ago, but haven't got the results back yet.
That seems strange. Both the antibody test I had at a county run testing site and the antibody tests my girlfriends' employer purchased take less than 20 mins.

Last edited by Max_mang; 7th July 2020 at 04:24 PM.
Max_mang is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th July 2020, 06:08 PM   #282
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,080
Oh for goodness sake this is not an airborne virus. Correct terminology is important. If it was airborne everyone would have to stay inside with the windows closed. Ordinary cloth and surgical masks would do very little to prevent spread. You'd be in danger of catching it from me if I was infected and you were a couple of miles downwind.

Measles is airborne. Foot and mouth disease, famously, is airborne. So are a bunch of other things including many spore-forming bacteria. SARS-CoV-2, thankfully, is not.

The people pushing the canard that this is airborne mainly want to terrify you into believing the virus can't be contained and lockdowns won't help and we should all just give up, go to work and accept that herd immunity is the only endpoint. They don't want you to wear a mask because they point out how very much smaller the virus itself is than the pores even of a proper mask never mind a cloth mask. It's pernicious.

The virus has three modes of transmission.
  • Large (Flügge) droplets that are acted on by gravity and which can be avoided by staying 2 metres back
  • Fomite (touch) transmission where an inanimate object like a door handle transfers virus to another host (fomites become contaminated either by touch or by having droplets land on them)
  • Aerosol droplets that are small enough to remain suspended in the air for some time, probably around half an hour. These contain significantly fewer viral particles than Flügge droplets and so more need to be inhaled in order to acquire an infectious dose, on the other hand they're easier to inhale right into your lungs
For sure, ignoring aerosol spread has been a thing. It has been obvious right from the start that it's important in certain situations, principally small airspaces where people are coughing or talking loudly, and airspaces where a lot of singing and shouting is going on.

What happened to the Skagit Valley Chorale on 10th March couldn't have happened in any other way than by aerosol transfer. There are at least two other choir outbreaks in that category. Nevertheless I saw an article in the Guardian by some idiot physicist who claimed that singing was perfectly safe because it didn't expel Flügge droplets far enough to be a risk. Bad advice. I've been in correspondence with various choirmasters and musical directors pushing this point pretty much since our choir practice scheduled for 15th March was pulled on the advice of the village doctor. The choral singing community understands and is sorrowfully making plans not to re-convene until the virus is properly suppressed.

Yes there needs to be greater awareness of aerosol spread. Yes people need more guidance about talking quietly and not shouting or yelling or talking loudly and animatedly and for God's sake no singing - indoors. Aerosols can only build up in a way that allows an infective dose to be transferred in an enclosed space. Out of doors and they're simply wafted away in the breeze or diluted in the infinite airspace all around. We're thinking of getting together for some al fresco choir practice over the summer.

Aerosol spread is still droplet spread. The virus is still contained in a moisture droplet, just one that's small enough to be suspended. Therefore it's still inhibited to a pretty good extent by masks. It also means that out of doors is safe so long as you stay far enough away to avoid Flügge droplets.

Airborne transmission is something else again and thank goodness it's not involved in this one. It is not going to blow in the window and get you. It's not going to get you while you're out on a country walk in the fresh air. That's what airborne viruses do. People need to stop saying that it is, because it's scaremongering, it's giving ammunition to the herd immunity pedlars (and the "masks are useless" lobby) and it's wrong.

Here's a good article that explains all this and more. The risks - know them - avoid them
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th July 2020, 07:06 PM   #283
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 83,806
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Oh for goodness sake this is not an airborne virus. Correct terminology is important. If it was airborne everyone would have to stay inside with the windows closed. Ordinary cloth and surgical masks would do very little to prevent spread. You'd be in danger of catching it from me if I was infected and you were a couple of miles downwind.

[snipped remedial reading]
Calm down. I know the ******* difference. And the surgical masks do very little to protect the wearer. No one said it traveled miles. Even measles doesn't spread miles downwind.

May 6th Preprint: Re-thinking the Potential for Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (I posted this link earlier.)
Quote:
Abstract
Evidence for the potential for airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-19 continues to accumulate, with important implications for healthcare workers, as well as the general public. Three lines of evidence support this conclusion.
July 5th: NYT: Scientists Prepare Letter to WHO Insisting COVID-19 Is Airborne
Quote:
Hundreds of scientists say the World Health Organization should revise its recommendations for the coronavirus due to evidence that smaller particles of the virus can travel through the air and infect people, The New York Times reported on Sunday.

The group, numbering 239 scientists from 32 nations, is expected to publish its recommendation and evidence of its theory in an open letter this coming week.
They did publish the letter.


It's not foodborne either but there is evidence if your food is directly contaminated that can transfer the virus to your mouth the same way you can contaminate your mouth with your hand. (I posted that study earlier.)
__________________
Thousands of COMMUTATIONS GRANTED BY PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA (2009-2017)

Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 7th July 2020 at 07:10 PM.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th July 2020, 10:24 PM   #284
Blue Mountain
Resident Skeptical Hobbit
 
Blue Mountain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Waging war on woo-woo in Winnipeg
Posts: 6,263
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Not in terms of general transmission to keep the pandemic going. The virus was almost certainly zoonotic in origin but the pandemic is purely human transmission. It's not like rabies or even tuberculosis.
Thanks for the elaboration. If that's indeed the case, is a vaccine necessary? Or can we simply rely on contact tracing and isolation to knock it out?

Thinking on my last question, it might be possible to stamp it out with contract tracing and isolation—if humans weren't so darned stupid. So we really need to develop a vaccine as well.
__________________
The social illusion reigns to-day upon all the heaped-up ruins of the past, and to it belongs the future. The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Gustav Le Bon, The Crowd, 1895 (from the French)
Canadian or living in Canada? PM me if you want an entry on the list of Canadians on the forum.
Blue Mountain is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th July 2020, 10:39 PM   #285
marting
Graduate Poster
 
marting's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,878
Masks are mostly to protect others from the infected and don't really do much filtering inhalations after exhaled small droplets evaporate and get even smaller. This work suggests nose plugs might be somewhat effective. Alternately, become a mouth breather.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30675-9.pdf
__________________
Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.
marting is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th July 2020, 11:01 PM   #286
gypsyjackson
Muse
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Posts: 931
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
It's interesting that this seems to be an adjuvant effect again. Useful things adjuvants in that they allow killed vaccines which have a small finite dose because they don't multiply in the body to produce a useful immune response, but they themselves can be a problem. The local soreness and malaise that are trivial non-specific adverse effects of a vaccine are actually reactions to the adjuvant. The bleeding calves saga also turned out to be caused by the adjuvant in the BVD vaccine.
When I was working on bird flu about 15 years ago, the Deputy Chief Vet told me that he suspected the adjuvant in the vaccines available then (mostly mineral oil in those) could actually have a close to equal effect to the vaccine itself - that injecting the birds with just paraffin could stir up their immune system enough to be as effective as the expensive and not field-tested jabs. I’m not sure if he was joking.
gypsyjackson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 01:38 AM   #287
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,080
Yes there are people who should know better using the word "airborne". That doesn't make it right. It's scaremongering and it's playing into the hands of people who want to abandon lockdowns and even social distancing and believe the virus can't be stopped.

ETA: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-53329946

This is nuts. Aerosol spread has been known about for months. I was writing emails about it to friends in musical circles in April. Now the WHO is saying it "can't be ruled out"!? I mean where have they been? And they're calling it airborne, which is disastrously wrong.

At least the professor who is quoted in the article gets the terminology right, but this shouldn't be allowed to continue. Aerosol and airborne are two completely different modes of transmission and they must be distinguished.

And if people are still saying things like "if this is confirmed" and "we may need to change the guidelines" at this stage, where have they been for the past four months? People have been writing about this for months and if anyone had any doubts at all then Skegit Valley (10th March) should have knocked them on the head.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

Last edited by Rolfe; 8th July 2020 at 02:45 AM.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 01:41 AM   #288
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,080
Quote:
When I was working on bird flu about 15 years ago, the Deputy Chief Vet told me that he suspected the adjuvant in the vaccines available then (mostly mineral oil in those) could actually have a close to equal effect to the vaccine itself - that injecting the birds with just paraffin could stir up their immune system enough to be as effective as the expensive and not field-tested jabs. I’m not sure if he was joking.

If that was the case you'd only need one vaccine, you wouldn't need to develop separate ones for every condition! I don't think aluminium hydroxide or Quill-A are quite that powerful on their own!
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 01:50 AM   #289
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,080
Quote:
Thanks for the elaboration. If that's indeed the case, is a vaccine necessary? Or can we simply rely on contact tracing and isolation to knock it out?

Thinking on my last question, it might be possible to stamp it out with contract tracing and isolation—if humans weren't so darned stupid. So we really need to develop a vaccine as well.

The main difficulty with this virus is human behaviour. Drilling down into it, this is mainly because of asymptomatic, oligosymptomatic and presymptomatic spread. SARS was defeated because people aren't infectious before they start to show symptoms, and it tends to fell people pretty fast, before they've had the chance to pass it on to many others. Once the word is out that people who don't feel well need to isolate and seek medical attention you're well on the way to winning. With this one, people can pass it on while they feel well, or think they only have a bit of a cold. It takes a lot more self-discipline than many people have to adhere to strict biosecure behaviour when they feel fine.

If everybody did exactly as they were told and there was sufficient high-quality PPE to allow everyone who is sick or who needs personal care to be nursed safely, this would be gone by now. It's not happening and it's not going to happen. Individual countries can eliminate it, we've seen that, but they're always vulnerable to reintroduction from international travellers and we've seen that too.

We don't just need a vaccine, we need the vaccine to be used intelligently in a sructured global eradication campaign by the WHO so that the last traces are hunted down and extirpated even in the most difficult regions. They'll probably have to divert resources from the polio eradication campaign to do it.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 02:34 AM   #290
dann
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 12,590
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Drilling down into it, this is mainly because of asymptomatic, oligosymptomatic and presymptomatic spread.

The Swedes insist that it isn't really infectious as long as you don't have any symptoms, which ruins the idea that "If everybody did exactly as they were told ..." since they still tell people who have been present at potential super-spreader events to get tested if they have symptoms but not if they don't.
__________________
/dann
"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
dann is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 02:53 AM   #291
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,080
I think that one has been pretty well knocked on the head but there seem to be people in Sweden who are somewhat in denial of reality.

In fact the difference between asymptomatic and oilgosymptomatic is a bit artificial. If you only realise in hindsight that you've been a bit off-colour, what use is that? The singers in the Skagit Valley Chorale were asked by email not to show up if they didn't feel entirely well. In fact only half the choir turned up at all that night, presumably because the rehearsal failed many people's personal risk assessments. The original reports of the event said that nobody was symptomatic. It's only when you get to the later more detailed reports that you find there was someone there with mild cold symptoms, who hadn't thought anything of it at the time.

Someone commented that if you could simply shut every human being on earth up in a separate room for two weeks (the same two weeks, obvs) the virus would be gone. You can't, though.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 07:55 AM   #292
lomiller
Penultimate Amazing
 
lomiller's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 10,973
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post

In fact this virus is a push-over. No insect vector, no wildlife reservoir, no airborne spread, no long-term asymptomatic carriers. It's a sitting duck. The only thing that keeps it going is the difficulty of getting human beings to change their behaviour for long enough. Once the majority of people are vaccinated there really is a good chance it will vanish permanently, we just have to usher it out to be on the safe side.
Covid-19 does infect dogs, cats, ferrets and hamsters. While cat-human transmission hasn’t been documented cat to cat and human to cat transmission has, so it’s reasonable to expect cat’s can infect humans as well. Cats also seem to remain largely asymptomatic while spreading the virus to each other. Animals do not seem to be a major factor in spreading the disease but they serve as a reservoir for the virus to cross back over into the human population.

Another issue is that immunity in Corona viruses tends to be relatively short-lived. 1-3 years is a reasonable expectation in which case eliminating it would require vaccinating every person on earth every year or two.
__________________
"Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen"
lomiller is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 09:09 AM   #293
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,080
Quote:
Covid-19 does infect dogs, cats, ferrets and hamsters. While cat-human transmission hasn’t been documented cat to cat and human to cat transmission has, so it’s reasonable to expect cat’s can infect humans as well. Cats also seem to remain largely asymptomatic while spreading the virus to each other. Animals do not seem to be a major factor in spreading the disease but they serve as a reservoir for the virus to cross back over into the human population.

Another issue is that immunity in Corona viruses tends to be relatively short-lived. 1-3 years is a reasonable expectation in which case eliminating it would require vaccinating every person on earth every year or two.

As far as I know cats have not been shown to be a significant driver of this epidemic in any meaningful way. As you say, nobody has been shown to have caught it from a cat and cats are not themselves seriously ill if they catch it. Maybe this will change as more information is gathered but at present I don't see cats as an animal reservoir fuelling or re-seeding this pandemic.

The point about the possibly short-lived immunity is exactly why you need to use the vaccine to eradicate the disease, not as a panacea. We do this all the time in veterinary disease control. Vaccinate in the face of a threat, but simultaneously work towards eradication, in which endeavour the vaccine is a significant help, then once it's done, no need to vaccinate.

Doing this right probably involves developed countries eradicating it within their borders and a growing system of travel vaccination requirements to visit or come in from a non-eradicated country. It's part of the WHO's remit to support less advantaged countries in their eradication efforts, and then to get in there and finish the job if necessary. I just hope we don't have problems with that like we've had in Pakistan and Nigeria with polio. But this is a lot easier to get rid of than polio I think.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 10:19 AM   #294
lomiller
Penultimate Amazing
 
lomiller's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 10,973
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
As far as I know cats have not been shown to be a significant driver of this epidemic in any meaningful way. As you say, nobody has been shown to have caught it from a cat and cats are not themselves seriously ill if they catch it. Maybe this will change as more information is gathered but at present I don't see cats as an animal reservoir fuelling or re-seeding this pandemic.
We can’t conclude that no one has caught the virus this way, it just doesn’t seem to be very common relative to other types of transmission. There are cases of the virus speeding between locked down apartments in China (China had real and in some cases literal lockdowns) that would be nicely explained by infected cats or other critters moving back and forth.

While it may be too early to draw conclusions either way given the mild symptoms and short lived immunity it seems like feral cats are very likely an ideal animal reservoir for COVID-19. Even if they don’t show obvious symptoms cats to get sick enough to spread it to each other, so it seems unlikely they couldn’t spread it to humans as well. (would you let another human lick your hand?) IMO mild symptoms and short lived immunity and large feral communities seem to make cats a readymade animal reservoir for COVID-19.
__________________
"Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen"
lomiller is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 11:05 AM   #295
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,080
Quote:
We can’t conclude that no one has caught the virus this way, it just doesn’t seem to be very common relative to other types of transmission. There are cases of the virus speeding between locked down apartments in China (China had real and in some cases literal lockdowns) that would be nicely explained by infected cats or other critters moving back and forth.

While it may be too early to draw conclusions either way given the mild symptoms and short lived immunity it seems like feral cats are very likely an ideal animal reservoir for COVID-19. Even if they don’t show obvious symptoms cats to get sick enough to spread it to each other, so it seems unlikely they couldn’t spread it to humans as well. (would you let another human lick your hand?) IMO mild symptoms and short lived immunity and large feral communities seem to make cats a readymade animal reservoir for COVID-19.

Well, I did say that could change if further information emerged. If there is the potential for the virus to develop an animal reservoir that's an even bigger incentive to get rid of it before that happens. See bovine TB and badgers. However at the moment there does not seem to be any evidence of such a reservoir affecting the course of the pandemic.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 02:16 PM   #296
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,013
Originally Posted by marting View Post
Masks are mostly to protect others from the infected and don't really do much filtering inhalations after exhaled small droplets evaporate and get even smaller. This work suggests nose plugs might be somewhat effective. Alternately, become a mouth breather.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30675-9.pdf
That is truly fascinating. Needs more work, but could be a huge difference if it's that simple.

It does make the people wearing masks under their nose even funnier.
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 03:22 PM   #297
Myriad
Hyperthetical
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Betwixt
Posts: 16,924
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
If I were seeing you as a nurse practitioner, test results are only one element I would consider. You give a good test a lot of weight, but even then it wouldn't rule out COVID 19 completely. If the symptoms are that distinct, and COVID 19 is in the area and I ruled out things like Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever (did you get any tick bites?) and brucellosis (drink any raw milk?)... I would diagnose it as COVID 19.

Just an update on this: I talked to my Physician Assistant today and she said that about twenty percent of infections are missed by the swab test I had. That's much higher than I thought. I would have guessed two to five percent. From a Bayesian standpoint, that makes it much more probable that I actually did have Covid-19. Getting blood work next week to rule out some other possibilities.
__________________
A zømbie once bit my sister...
Myriad is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th July 2020, 05:39 PM   #298
TellyKNeasuss
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,489
60,000+!!! Making America contaGious Again
__________________
"Facts are stupid things."
Ronald Reagan


TellyKNeasuss is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 12:29 AM   #299
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,363
Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
60,000+!!! Making America contaGious Again
Sure, but it's only because the US is testing. If no tests were done, no cases would be found.

I worry about if and when the death rate starts climbing again.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 02:11 AM   #300
Bob001
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: US of A
Posts: 11,772
Originally Posted by marting View Post
Masks are mostly to protect others from the infected and don't really do much filtering inhalations after exhaled small droplets evaporate and get even smaller. This work suggests nose plugs might be somewhat effective. Alternately, become a mouth breather.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30675-9.pdf
Don't make me read something I can't understand anyway. Is the conclusion that people contract covid primarily by inhaling aerosols? If that's the case, why wouldn't masks over the nose be at least somewhat effective? Apparently medical workers who spend their time in close contact with covid patients but who wear surgical (not N95) masks are less likely to ge sick than the general population with ordinary social contact.

And if we need to not breathe through our noses, maybe swimmers nose clips would make more sense than plugs.
https://www.amazon.com/Speedo-753101...i=3418821&th=1
Bob001 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 05:36 AM   #301
alfaniner
Penultimate Amazing
 
alfaniner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 23,694
Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
...
And if we need to not breathe through our noses, maybe swimmers nose clips would make more sense than plugs.
https://www.amazon.com/Speedo-753101...i=3418821&th=1
Those look dumb even when you're in a swimming pool. Doubly so if you're doing synchronized swimming. And are hairy males.
__________________
Science is self-correcting.
Woo is self-contradicting.
alfaniner is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 08:27 AM   #302
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
 
Oystein's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 16,951
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Sure, but it's only because the US is testing. If no tests were done, no cases would be found.

I worry about if and when the death rate starts climbing again.
You mean more cases are found because more tests are conducted?

That would probably be putting causation on its head.
It's more likely that the rising number of tests is driven by the rising number of actual infections.

Why? Because the ratio "Tests conducted per confirmed case of COVID-19" has been going down in the USA, from already low levels:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...pickerSort=asc

USA had a plateau high of near 22 tests conducted per confirmed case (which is decent) until third week of June, and since then that has dropped to under 15. That's hardly better than India. Canada, Germany, Switzerland, even the UK by contrast conduct 100 and more tests per confirmed case.
__________________
Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)
Oystein is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 10:49 AM   #303
Joe Random
Master Poster
 
Joe Random's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,612
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
<...>

The virus has three modes of transmission.
  • Large (Flügge) droplets that are acted on by gravity and which can be avoided by staying 2 metres back
  • Fomite (touch) transmission where an inanimate object like a door handle transfers virus to another host (fomites become contaminated either by touch or by having droplets land on them)
  • Aerosol droplets that are small enough to remain suspended in the air for some time, probably around half an hour. These contain significantly fewer viral particles than Flügge droplets and so more need to be inhaled in order to acquire an infectious dose, on the other hand they're easier to inhale right into your lungs
<...>

Hope you don't mind me using your post as a jumping-off point for a question I've had regarding surfaces. I have zero background in the whole virology thing so excuse the ignorance of the following.

Let's say we have an infected surface like a door handle used by several people. I touch the handle and get nasty stuff on my hands, but I don't touch anything else with that hand until I properly clean it (soap+water/sanitizer/whatever). I and others do this several times per day - touch an infected surface, but properly clean up before touching anything else.

Does the level of the virus go down each time it gets touched? Meaning, does it becomes 'less dangerous/infectious/whatever' as it gets touched by multiple people? And if so is that to any level which makes an appreciable difference? Or is it only time and/or direct cleaning which has an actual impact on that?
Joe Random is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 11:35 AM   #304
Capsid
Graduate Poster
 
Capsid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,694
The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 2

Originally Posted by Joe Random View Post
Hope you don't mind me using your post as a jumping-off point for a question I've had regarding surfaces. I have zero background in the whole virology thing so excuse the ignorance of the following.

Let's say we have an infected surface like a door handle used by several people. I touch the handle and get nasty stuff on my hands, but I don't touch anything else with that hand until I properly clean it (soap+water/sanitizer/whatever). I and others do this several times per day - touch an infected surface, but properly clean up before touching anything else.

Does the level of the virus go down each time it gets touched? Meaning, does it becomes 'less dangerous/infectious/whatever' as it gets touched by multiple people? And if so is that to any level which makes an appreciable difference? Or is it only time and/or direct cleaning which has an actual impact on that?

Lots of factors to consider. The virus won’t survive for long on a surface, it won’t get absorbed through skin, if you wash your hands regularly you will kill the virus. There’s a slight risk of getting infected if an infected person sneezes on their hand touches the handle, then you touch the handle and touch your face in a way that the virus can get to your mucosal surface. In my opinion. Transmission is more likely from you sharing airspace, in other words you breathe in what they jus breathed out. Wear a mask if you’re positive, wash your hands and avoid crowded indoor places.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Last edited by Capsid; 9th July 2020 at 11:37 AM.
Capsid is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 01:19 PM   #305
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 83,806
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Yes there are people who should know better using the word "airborne". That doesn't make it right. It's scaremongering and it's playing into the hands of people who want to abandon lockdowns and even social distancing and believe the virus can't be stopped.

ETA: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-53329946

This is nuts. Aerosol spread has been known about for months. I was writing emails about it to friends in musical circles in April. Now the WHO is saying it "can't be ruled out"!? I mean where have they been? And they're calling it airborne, which is disastrously wrong.

At least the professor who is quoted in the article gets the terminology right, but this shouldn't be allowed to continue. Aerosol and airborne are two completely different modes of transmission and they must be distinguished.

And if people are still saying things like "if this is confirmed" and "we may need to change the guidelines" at this stage, where have they been for the past four months? People have been writing about this for months and if anyone had any doubts at all then Skegit Valley (10th March) should have knocked them on the head.
Your own link answers the "where have they been" question. It's called politics.

Quote:
"In healthcare settings, if aerosol transmission poses a risk then we understand healthcare workers should really be wearing the best possible preventive equipment... and actually the World Health Organization said that one of the reasons they were not keen to talk about aerosol transmission of Covid-19 is because there's not a sufficient number of these kind of specialised masks for many parts of the world," he said.
This is the same BS reason the CDC was claiming no asymptomatic spread, not enough tests and PPE. Finally in a news interview just this week Fauci was asked, "Why not just say there was asymptomatic spread but not enough tests and PPE and Fauci danced around the answer.


And said professor should know better. Sounds like they are making excuses. Droplet spread: generally droplets go about 3 feet from the source. Six feet apparently with highly infectious diseases. Three feet has been the standard here defining droplet spread.
This again is from your link:
Quote:
But 239 scientists from 32 countries don't agree: they say there is also strong evidence to suggest the virus can also spread in the air: through much tinier particles that float around for hours after people talk, or breathe out.
That's the bloody definition of AIRBORNE.

To claim aerosols aren't "airborne" particles is DOWNPLAYING the mechanism of spread using misleading and frankly ludicrous semantics.


I can't speak for the guidelines in the UK that do or do not need revising. I've complained since the beginning of this thread about the bad CDC guidelines here in the US, first claiming asymptomatic persons were not spreading the infection long after we had good evidence they were.

Then came the CDC admitting to asymptomatic spread. The CDC in the US and the WHO have only recently begun to consider said aerosols are spreading infection. We've had evidence for a while now that droplet spread isn't sufficient to account for all spread.

There is a reason more than 200 scientists have petitioned the WHO to revise its guidelines and it's not because they don't know the definition of airborne.
__________________
Thousands of COMMUTATIONS GRANTED BY PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA (2009-2017)

Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 9th July 2020 at 01:26 PM.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 02:30 PM   #306
TellyKNeasuss
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,489
A paper published in The Lancet claims that more than half of the asymptotic people from the Diamond Princess actually did have symptoms - lung abnormalities - that they didn't notice (probably none of them were training for a marathon).

https://www.thelancet.com/action/sho...2820%2930482-5
__________________
"Facts are stupid things."
Ronald Reagan


TellyKNeasuss is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 03:13 PM   #307
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 83,806
Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Don't make me read something I can't understand anyway. Is the conclusion that people contract covid primarily by inhaling aerosols? If that's the case, why wouldn't masks over the nose be at least somewhat effective? Apparently medical workers who spend their time in close contact with covid patients but who wear surgical (not N95) masks are less likely to ge sick than the general population with ordinary social contact.

And if we need to not breathe through our noses, maybe swimmers nose clips would make more sense than plugs.
https://www.amazon.com/Speedo-753101...i=3418821&th=1
The paper describes a gradient of numbers of virus particles from the nose down.

It means those people wearing their masks below their noses are putting others at risk.

From the paper:
Quote:
These speculations describing the early pathogenesis of
SARS-CoV-2 upper and lower respiratory tract disease are
consistent with recent clinical observations. The data from
Wo¨ lfel et al. (2020) in COVID-19-positive subjects support the
concept of early infection in the upper respiratory tract (0–5 d)
followed by subsequent aspiration and infection of the lower
lung. These authors focused on the oropharynx as a potential
site of the early virus propagation. As noted above, however, a
nasal-oropharyngeal axis also exists, which has two implications.
First, the nasal surfaces could seed the oropharynx for
infection. Second, it is likely that oropharyngeal secretions
reflect a mixture of local secretions admixed with a robust contribution
of nasal mucus and virus
That is also consistent with early infection being a high risk of spread.

The problem trying to interpret this information meaning the nose is the only portal of entry, is that that conclusion, while maybe hinted at, is not supported by the data.

They are saying we looked at the the virus and we see it reproduces first in the nasopharynx cells then spreads to the cilia cells in the trachea.

What they aren't saying is there are no other places in the airway the virus can take hold.

If I were working in the hospital I might consider a nose plug under my mask but not in place of the mask.

Remember though, if you plug your nose you breathe harder in and out of your mouth. That condition was also not tested in this study.
__________________
Thousands of COMMUTATIONS GRANTED BY PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA (2009-2017)

Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 03:22 PM   #308
marting
Graduate Poster
 
marting's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,878
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
If I were working in the hospital I might consider a nose plug under my mask but not in place of the mask.
Yeah. Me too. But it's likely to be at best a marginal improvement.
__________________
Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.
marting is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 03:31 PM   #309
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,013
Further evidence that some of the mild cases might not be so mild after all:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...covid-symptoms

There's enough brain damage among people who haven't had Covid.
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 03:34 PM   #310
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 83,806
Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Covid-19 does infect dogs, cats, ferrets and hamsters. While cat-human transmission hasn’t been documented cat to cat and human to cat transmission has, so it’s reasonable to expect cat’s can infect humans as well. Cats also seem to remain largely asymptomatic while spreading the virus to each other. Animals do not seem to be a major factor in spreading the disease but they serve as a reservoir for the virus to cross back over into the human population.

Another issue is that immunity in Corona viruses tends to be relatively short-lived. 1-3 years is a reasonable expectation in which case eliminating it would require vaccinating every person on earth every year or two.
To be a reservoir, these animals also have to spread it to each other (in addition to spreading it back to humans). One thing that happened so far with the H5N1 bird flu is people got it when closely exposed to infected poultry. And they spread it to family members. But it hasn't as yet taken off in human population because the virus needs another couple of genetic changes before it is well adapted to human cells. And it needs that adaptation in order to be an efficient reproducer of virus in numbers large enough to then spread more easily person to person.

This is the reverse, probably. Despite animals in close contact with the virus getting infected, they aren't producing large numbers of virus.

To get infected you need the susceptible host (us or animals), the dose has to be sufficient, and it needs a portal of entry. There are lots of pathogens that take a large dose of the microorganisms to start an infection. And there are some that take very few of the buggers to get a foothold.
__________________
Thousands of COMMUTATIONS GRANTED BY PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA (2009-2017)

Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 9th July 2020 at 03:37 PM.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 04:22 PM   #311
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 83,806
How timely (because they are discussing bad information from official medical sources). I just listened to a podcast on NPR's 'The Daily' which is from the NYT.

NYT Podcast, 07/09/20: A Missed Warning about Silent Corona Virus Infections. (Sorry, no transcript yet but this is so worth everyone's 32 minutes.)

Quote:
At the end of January, long before the world understood that seemingly healthy people could spread the coronavirus, a doctor in Germany tried to sound the alarm. Today, we look at why that warning was unwelcome.
Remember that ophthalmologist who tried to sound the warning in China but he was arrested?

How different are we from that? We don't arrest people but that doesn't mean we don't shut them up. This is a story about a German man who had a visitor from Wuhan at the end of Jan. That visitor did not feel ill until he was on the way home. When the man in Germany felt ill a few days later and went to the doctor, he was diagnosed as the first case of COVID 19 in Germany.

The doctor wrote a professional letter about the asymptomatic spread. Instead, the BMJ editors (I think it was the BMJ and the editors) argued against the asymptomatic spread and instead claimed the man from Wuhan actually did have symptoms. Thus they quashed the medical opinion of the doctor who made the diagnosis and replaced it with their own that the visitor had symptoms.

Quote:
On today’s episode:

Matt Apuzzo, an investigative reporter for The New York Times based in Brussels.

Dr. Camilla Rothe, an infectious disease specialist at Munich University Hospital.
They discuss the political reasons asymptomatic spread was denied at first. And that denial came from officials like the CDC in the US and the WHO. This has been a real eye-opener for me just how much political influence is playing on the public information these organizations are putting out. I rationalized that made sense when the WHO refused to upgrade the threat to an official pandemic. Now I see there was more to it than a simple formula for upgrading the threat.

Now these officials don't want to publicly admit there is some airborne spread. If they did that they would have to admit health care workers were not adequately protected even when they do have PPE. They would have to provide at least N95s for health care workers even though an N95 doesn't provide perfect protection either. But it is better than a surgical mask.


Guardian; Back in mid-April: Coronavirus is killing far more US health workers than official data suggests
Quote:
The number of healthcare workers who have tested positive for the coronavirus is probably far higher than the reported tally of 9,200, and US officials say they have no comprehensive way to count those who lose their lives trying to save others.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the infection tally on Tuesday and said 27 health worker deaths have been recorded, based on a small number of test-result reports.

Officials stressed that the count was drawn from just 16% of the nation’s Covid-19 cases, so the true numbers of healthcare infections and deaths are certainly far higher.
27 is bull ****. There are hundreds of health care worker deaths in the US alone. You can bet that 27 is the result of the CDC tamping down on the criteria needed to say a health care worker died of COVID 19 they got on the job.


Next the not airborne lie. And are we sure about this "kids aren't spreading it, open the schools" assertion?
__________________
Thousands of COMMUTATIONS GRANTED BY PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA (2009-2017)

Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 9th July 2020 at 04:31 PM.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 06:08 PM   #312
marting
Graduate Poster
 
marting's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,878
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
How timely (because they are discussing bad information from official medical sources). I just listened to a podcast on NPR's 'The Daily' which is from the NYT.
This's a good podcast. Would be great to get some inside views how these facts were looked at by the different country's health departments. WHO is very afraid to do anything that might impact international trade and travel. Intrinsic bias.
Quote:
NYT Podcast, 07/09/20: A Missed Warning about Silent Corona Virus Infections. (Sorry, no transcript yet but this is so worth everyone's 32 minutes.)

Remember that ophthalmologist who tried to sound the warning in China but he was arrested?

How different are we from that? We don't arrest people but that doesn't mean we don't shut them up. This is a story about a German man who had a visitor from Wuhan at the end of Jan. That visitor did not feel ill until he was on the way home.
The Doc tried, but not able, to contact the woman after she returned to Wuhan and so was only able to go by the observations of her work while in Germany where she exhibited no signs of any illness to others.

After returning to Wuhan and getting sick she retrospectively related that she had woken up feeling under the weather and attributed it to jet lag. She took a 999 (Chinese cold tablet containing mostly acetaminophen) and went back to bed. She felt fine the rest of her time there.

So that got published in Science by the other researchers and they also requested NEJM pull the original letter as flawed. NEJM did not and considered the squabble largely semantics.

But this does show the ambiguity of discriminating common aches and pains from "symptoms." People oh so love having binaries. Either you have this symptom or or you don't. When you combine this with the political issues involved it's really messy.
__________________
Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.
marting is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 08:54 PM   #313
Matthew Ellard
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,153
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
As far as I know cats have not been shown to be a significant driver of this epidemic in any meaningful way. As you say, nobody has been shown to have caught it from a cat and cats are not themselves seriously ill if they catch it.
Thanks for that.


"Here Mr Twinkles....come to daddy Mr Twinkles..."
Attached Images
File Type: jpg cat mask.jpg (62.7 KB, 6 views)
Matthew Ellard is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 09:40 PM   #314
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
Posts: 25,409
From Scientific American:

Mounting Evidence Suggests Coronavirus Is Airborne—but Health Advice Has Not Caught Up
(July 8, 2020)

Quote:
After months of denying the importance of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the World Health Organization is reconsidering its stance​
Quote:
In Lidia Morawska’s home city of Brisbane on Australia’s east coast, roadside signs broadcast a simple message: ‘Wash hands, save lives.’ She has no problem with that: “Hand washing is always a good measure,” says the aerosol scientist, who works at the Queensland University of Technology. But the sign might be outdated.

Converging lines of evidence indicate that SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, can pass from person to person in tiny droplets called aerosols that waft through the air and accumulate over time. After months of debate about whether people can transmit the virus through exhaled air, there is growing concern among scientists about this transmission route.

This week, Morawska and aerosol scientist Donald Milton at the University of Maryland, College Park, supported by an international group of 237 other clinicians, infectious-disease physicians, epidemiologists, engineers and aerosol scientists, published a commentary in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases that urges the medical community and public-health authorities to acknowledge the potential for airborne transmission. They also call for preventive measures to reduce this type of risk.

. . .

But this conclusion is not popular with some experts because it goes against decades of thinking about respiratory infections. Since the 1930s, public-health researchers and officials have generally discounted the importance of aerosols — droplets less than 5 micrometres in diameter — in respiratory diseases such as influenza. Instead, the dominant view is that respiratory viruses are transmitted by the larger droplets or through contact with droplets that fall on surfaces or are transferred by people’s hands. When SARS-CoV-2 emerged at the end of 2019, the assumption was that it spread in the same way as other respiratory viruses and that airborne transmission was not important.
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 11:18 PM   #315
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 83,806
Originally Posted by marting View Post
This's a good podcast. Would be great to get some inside views how these facts were looked at by the different country's health departments. WHO is very afraid to do anything that might impact international trade and travel. Intrinsic bias.


The Doc tried, but not able, to contact the woman after she returned to Wuhan and so was only able to go by the observations of her work while in Germany where she exhibited no signs of any illness to others.

After returning to Wuhan and getting sick she retrospectively related that she had woken up feeling under the weather and attributed it to jet lag. She took a 999 (Chinese cold tablet containing mostly acetaminophen) and went back to bed. She felt fine the rest of her time there.

So that got published in Science by the other researchers and they also requested NEJM pull the original letter as flawed. NEJM did not and considered the squabble largely semantics.

But this does show the ambiguity of discriminating common aches and pains from "symptoms." People oh so love having binaries. Either you have this symptom or or you don't. When you combine this with the political issues involved it's really messy.
Thanks for the details. By the time I wanted to post about it, I didn't recall the details and didn't want to listen to it again to get those bits right in my post.
__________________
Thousands of COMMUTATIONS GRANTED BY PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA (2009-2017)

Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 11:20 PM   #316
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 83,806
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Yep.

And spread among school children is also being downplayed because it is inconvenient.
__________________
Thousands of COMMUTATIONS GRANTED BY PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA (2009-2017)

Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th July 2020, 11:38 PM   #317
novaphile
Quester of Doglets
Moderator
 
novaphile's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Sunny South Australia
Posts: 2,893
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Yep.

And spread among school children is also being downplayed because it is inconvenient.
Will 113 cases in a single school help to up-play it?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-...anina/12437584
__________________
We would be better, and braver, to engage in enquiry, rather than indulge in the idle fancy, that we already know -- Plato.
novaphile is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th July 2020, 06:05 AM   #318
Delphic Oracle
Philosopher
 
Delphic Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 5,000
Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
Will 113 cases in a single school help to up-play it?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-...anina/12437584
Missouri summer camp virus outbreak raises safety questions

Quote:
An overnight summer camp in rural southwestern Missouri has seen scores of campers, counselors and staff infected with the coronavirus, the local health department revealed this week, raising questions about the ability to keep kids safe at what is a rite of childhood for many.

Missouri is one of several states to report outbreaks at summer camps. The Kanakuk camp near Branson ended up sending its teenage campers home. On Friday, the local health department announced 49 positive cases of the COVID-19 virus at the camp. By Monday, the number had jumped to 82.

...

Missouri’s outbreak at a camp operated by Christian-based Kanakuk Kamp has done little to change the way that state is handling summer camps, which essentially calls for camp operators to consult with their local public health agency to craft plans to keep kids and staff safe. Camps must report any positive cases to the state.

Dr. Randall Williams, director of the Missouri Department of Health, said Monday that his agency had no plans to shut down summer camps in the wake of the Missouri outbreak.

“We think school is incredibly important to kids. We also think camps are important,” Williams said.

In fact, the camp plans to reopen later this summer once test results from all staffers are returned and show it’s safe to do so, Williams said.
Kanakuk orients towards suburban churches with a large youth ministry. It's more of a dorm-style vacation lodge. These kids don't do real camping, they are indoors half the day. Every evening is basically a 4 hour long service, everyone seated in rows, lots of choral singing, basically the worst things you can do.

Last edited by Delphic Oracle; 10th July 2020 at 06:12 AM.
Delphic Oracle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th July 2020, 09:06 AM   #319
lomiller
Penultimate Amazing
 
lomiller's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 10,973
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
To be a reservoir, these animals also have to spread it to each other (in addition to spreading it back to humans). One thing that happened so far with the H5N1 bird flu is people got it when closely exposed to infected poultry. And they spread it to family members. But it hasn't as yet taken off in human population because the virus needs another couple of genetic changes before it is well adapted to human cells. And it needs that adaptation in order to be an efficient reproducer of virus in numbers large enough to then spread more easily person to person.

This is the reverse, probably. Despite animals in close contact with the virus getting infected, they aren't producing large numbers of virus.

To get infected you need the susceptible host (us or animals), the dose has to be sufficient, and it needs a portal of entry. There are lots of pathogens that take a large dose of the microorganisms to start an infection. And there are some that take very few of the buggers to get a foothold.
Cats have been show to spread it to each other and do shed infectious viruses in relatively large amounts of the virus when they are infected. Minks are susceptible as well had are suspected to have passed the virus back to humans after being infected.

While the chances of getting COVID-19 this way is low, it doesn’t need to be common for it to be a viable way to jump back into human populations should we be luck enough to eliminate the virus in humans. (Don’t abandon your cat due to COVID-19 you are a much greater risk to infect it that it is to infect you) I’m strictly speaking to the suggestion we could easily eliminate this virus altogether because it has no animal repository. On the contrary, in its current form it seems to jump species relatively easily.
__________________
"Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen"

Last edited by lomiller; 10th July 2020 at 10:14 AM.
lomiller is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th July 2020, 01:38 PM   #320
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 83,806
Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Cats have been show to spread it to each other and do shed infectious viruses in relatively large amounts of the virus when they are infected. Minks are susceptible as well had are suspected to have passed the virus back to humans after being infected.

While the chances of getting COVID-19 this way is low, it doesn’t need to be common for it to be a viable way to jump back into human populations should we be luck enough to eliminate the virus in humans. (Don’t abandon your cat due to COVID-19 you are a much greater risk to infect it that it is to infect you) I’m strictly speaking to the suggestion we could easily eliminate this virus altogether because it has no animal repository. On the contrary, in its current form it seems to jump species relatively easily.
I see they are culling all the minks when COVID hits a mink farm.
__________________
Thousands of COMMUTATIONS GRANTED BY PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA (2009-2017)

Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 11:44 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.