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#201 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,403
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Anne Widdecombe wants special 'shopping hours' for mask protesters.
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#202 |
NWO Litter Technician
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Looks like Finland. Smells like Finland. Quacks like Finland. Where the hell am I?
Posts: 14,378
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When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realised that the Lord, in his wisdom, doesn't work that way. I just stole one and asked Him to forgive me. - Emo Philips
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#203 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,059
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#204 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 96,143
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I wish I knew how to quit you |
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#205 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: London
Posts: 309
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#206 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,402
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It's not false negatives as such, it's people who are tested before they become positive. The best you could do would be to quarantine everyone for say five days, test on day 1 and again on day 5, and only if both are negative can you be reasonably confident the person isn't infected. If the samples were properly collected that is.
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#207 |
Mostly harmless
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 33,597
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Pet cat diagnosed with Covid-19 in first UK case of animal infection
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How many cats have been tested? |
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"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
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#208 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,402
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Weybridge are obviously doing a research project on this so the answer is probably "quite a few". It's a known phenomenon, this is just the first one that has been identified in Britain.
How is this Politics, anyway? |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#209 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,402
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I originally posted this in the thread about Sweden, which is pretty political anyway, in relation to countries being prepared to accept a fairly high level of ongoing infection. If we're going to discuss it further it might be better to do it here though. I think the bottom-line question is, if the parliament in the UK which has the supreme power has decided not to go for zero-covid, but the devolved parliaments which are subordinate to Westminster are trying for that and indeed apparently succeeding, how does this play out?
A report just surfaced, dated 26th June, of a paper prepared by the UK Joint Biosecurity Centre (itself dated 20th May) which was considered by SAGE on 21st May. It recommends working towards a situation in the UK as a whole where there are "only" 1,000 new positive tests on symptomatic patients per day. It's difficult to know how superseded this is because current figures are below this number, but it indicates what boffins were prepared to advise the government to accept as being an OK situation going forward. It seems they were far more interested in not overwhelming the NHS than in saving lives, and completely oblivious of the difficulty of keeping the pot simmering at that high level of transmission without it boiling over completely. That they were prepared to advise this for "the UK" as a whole without taking any consideration of the devolved governments' policies or objectives is concerning. That they saw a situation which implies 10 people dying a day on a continuing basis* as acceptable is alarming. And that's without factoring in the serious long-term illness that also goes with it. I hope very much they've abandoned this. The UK as a whole got down to 440 new cases a day about three weeks ago but is now sitting on 660 (7-day averages). We need to know if they're really trying to get this down, or if they're happy that they're running below the 1000. Both Scotland and NI have explicitly said they're pursuing zero-covid and Wales might be on board too, but Johnson, when asked specifically about whether England would do it also declined to confirm this and instead waffled about making sure NHS capacity wasn't going to be overwhelmed. Rocky times ahead perhaps? *ETA: Actually a comparison of all-UK deaths with the number of reported new infections three weeks earlier currently shows that the CFR on this basis is not 1% but actually 13.6%. That is, three weeks ago there were only 3,313 new cases recorded (the lowest week ever) but death this week, which should mainly represent the deaths of people who became infected three weeks ago, numbered 452. So if you're getting 452 deaths following on from 3,313 cases, how many are you expecting from a week with 7,000 new cases (1,000 per day)? Is this an OK place to be? |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#210 |
No longer the 1
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 23,490
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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#211 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,403
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Any other country you can think of where, in the midst of the deadliest public health threat since WW2, the govt ***** off on holiday?
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#212 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 30,671
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Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant. |
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#213 |
Becoming Beth
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Central Vale of Humility (USA, sort of)
Posts: 26,139
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"A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep." "Ninety percent of the politicians give the other ten percent a bad reputation." |
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#214 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 96,143
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I wish I knew how to quit you |
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#215 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,353
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Out of curiousity, when they removed the quarantine period in the first place, did the UK government announce any specific statistics that would require imposing the quarantine period again?
Because one month ago, when the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the relaxation of travel restrictions, they stated that it would apply to countries with fewer than 30 new cases per week per 100,000 citizens, and stated that the figure would have to rise to more than 50 new cases per week, before travel restrictions would be reinstated. In addition, were that to happen, travelers would be permitted to finish their holiday before returning home, provided they were then tested upon return to Denmark (we've had mobile testing facilities at most of the major border crossings to facilitate this). The end result was that, when I went on holiday to Southern France for two weeks, I knew that no matter what, we wouldn't have a surprise quarantine sprung on us. |
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#216 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,403
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Govt sat obesity isa factor in seriousness of virus symptoms. they are going to tax 'junk food' and push cycling a a way to reduce weight £50 bike repair vouchers are available and
GP surgeries will have a stock of bicycles to lend. If they used them enough, patients would be allowed to keep them. What a load of ***** |
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#217 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,402
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It's a nonsense. It's only a statistical correlation. Thin people die of covid quite often too. Sometimes fat people survive. Imagine people who won't count a calorie to spare their knees or reduce their risk of heart disease or even look good, losing umpteen kg to slightly reduce their risk of dying of covid if they catch it. It's not going to happen.
And in any case exercise isn't a great way to lose weight, eating less is a great way to lose weight. If it had been shown that nobody with a BMI of less than 25 ever dies of covid and everybody with a BMI of over 30 always dies of it, there might be a slight point to it. But still not much. Just don't catch the virus by following all the social distancing rules. It's easier than starving yourself. And government? Commit England to the pursuit of Zero Covid if you want to save lives. (But you don't really, do you?) |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#218 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,403
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It's another way to shift blame.
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#219 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,402
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It's fairly amazing being in a country that's committed to Zero Covid and seems to be getting there. I'm still following all the rules and then some. I'm still not going into shops or having a haircut, but I'm visiting people in their homes when I know they've been following the rules all along too, and I know deep down that if I wanted to go into the shops I'd be fine.
Only three new cases in the region where I live in the past six weeks. No confirmed deaths in the entire country for 12 days (only six in the whole of July, mostly in the first week). It's like a weight lifting off your shoulders. I think the plan is to keep the borders open but to jump on every introduced case the minute there's any sign. It's risky and that's the thing everyone is afraid of, but once the tourist season is over it could get easier. There were some heavy hints being dropped today that the governments of the devolved nations are trying to lean on Johnson to get some sort of joint statement about a common approach to the virus, and since none of the three smaller nations has any intention of giving up the Zero Covid push, what it comes down to is trying to get Johnson on board to get the same objective for England. Ideally to include the Irish government too. It's the ideal solution to the border dilemma, it's the best thing for the economy of the whole country, and it will be the best thing for everyone in England. But it will probably involve him having to give up on his Serco and Sitel mates running the centralised contact tracing operation and give control back to the local authorities. That's mainly how the devolved nations have progressed so much better. I wonder if he'll do it? |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#220 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,268
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Zero covid beats vaccine ambitions hands down. I really hope Scotland can nail it.
Boris Johnson is a wicked monster for encouraging unnecessary tourism. |
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#221 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 31,006
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I don't trust atoms. They make up everything. |
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#222 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,059
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#223 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,403
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A website offering £50 bike repair vouchers in England crashed after the government scheme launched on Tuesday.
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#224 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,059
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#225 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 96,143
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#226 |
Muse
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Northumberland, UK
Posts: 539
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#227 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 22,703
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OECD healthcare spending Expenditure on healthcare http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm link is 2015 data (2013 Data below): UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending |
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#228 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,059
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#229 |
Muse
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Northumberland, UK
Posts: 539
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Yeaahbut, he is still a fat get?
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#230 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,402
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He is, and likely to remain so. I'm not sure he's thought this through. He's markedly overweight. If he starts to make a big deal about weight loss and fat-shaming the electorate, people are going to expect him to lead by example. And he's not going to do it.
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#231 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 4,550
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Having tested lots of people with active covid-19 this is not true. I have looked after people who have had 4 or 5 negative nose / throat swabs before we get a sputum sample off that is positive. Sputum samples appear way more reliable than nose / throat swabs. CT scans are better. I am pretty sure (anecdotal experience) that if one tests negative once on a swab then that is a person who has not much virus in their upper airways and will test negative again despite having active pneumonia. (Also temperature is not that common in active covid pneumonia, or more correctly having a normal temperature is common.)
I certainly agree that the sort of protocol you suggest reduces the risk of releasing a potential source of infection into the community, but it is not a zero risk option. The question is whether the risk reduction is sufficient, how confident is reasonable? |
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#232 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,402
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That's interesting. However the only zero risk option is simply not to let anyone in at all. Testing of clinically healthy people is a different ball game from testing the sick. If someone has virus in their lower respiratory tract despite having little in their upper respiratory tract the likelihood that they're walking around apparently healthy is relatively low. Clinically well travellers are a low-risk population to start with. I think if you can then screen out 80% or 90% of the infected people in that population you're probably looking at letting few enough people in that public health precautions thereafter should cope.
I don't know how well respected it would be, but I would also issue all incoming passengers with a fairly conspicuous badge to wear, advising others that they had recently entered the country and they were therefore obliged to maintain strict social distancing for a further week after their second negative rest. They'd also be prohibited from entering potential superspreader venues for that time. Still a nuisance, but not as onerous as quarantine. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#233 |
Mostly harmless
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 33,597
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"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
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#234 |
Muse
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Northumberland, UK
Posts: 539
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#235 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,402
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#236 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 96,143
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#237 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,402
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Having Covid will do that to you of course.
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#238 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: UK
Posts: 1,865
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#239 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,403
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“We need to fight obesity” says Tory Party that sold off the playing fields and closed the youth clubs and forced councils to shut sports centres and swimming pools and made it so that millions can never afford healthy food.
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#240 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,403
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The govt launched a “Fix your bike” voucher website
It broke in less than an hour The govt said we should all lose weight The govt is still issuing vouchers to help us buy Pizza |
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