Continuation Covid-19 and Politics pt 2

[Captain_Swoop]

Anne Widdecombe wants special 'shopping hours' for mask protesters.

Quote:

“Perhaps shops should allow certain hours when the mask dissenters can shop unmuzzled in the same way as they have allocated special times to the elderly,”

[timhau]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Anne Widdecombe wants special 'shopping hours' for mask protesters.

Will they only use self-service checkouts?

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Why not just test arrivals, those that are clear can just get on with things?

Too difficult ? Too expensive ? It puts the onus on the government not the individual ?

[Darat]

Originally Posted by timhau

Will they only use self-service checkouts?

And clean the store?

[ThatGuy11200]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Why not just test arrivals, those that are clear can just get on with things?

Do the current tests still have a lot of false negatives?

[Rolfe]

It's not false negatives as such, it's people who are tested before they become positive. The best you could do would be to quarantine everyone for say five days, test on day 1 and again on day 5, and only if both are negative can you be reasonably confident the person isn't infected. If the samples were properly collected that is.

[Mojo]

Pet cat diagnosed with Covid-19 in first UK case of animal infection

Quote:

Feline is thought to have caught virus from its owners and experienced only mild symptoms

How many cats have been tested?

[Rolfe]

Weybridge are obviously doing a research project on this so the answer is probably "quite a few". It's a known phenomenon, this is just the first one that has been identified in Britain.

How is this Politics, anyway?

[Rolfe]

I originally posted this in the thread about Sweden, which is pretty political anyway, in relation to countries being prepared to accept a fairly high level of ongoing infection. If we're going to discuss it further it might be better to do it here though. I think the bottom-line question is, if the parliament in the UK which has the supreme power has decided not to go for zero-covid, but the devolved parliaments which are subordinate to Westminster are trying for that and indeed apparently succeeding, how does this play out?

A report just surfaced, dated 26th June, of a paper prepared by the UK Joint Biosecurity Centre (itself dated 20th May) which was considered by SAGE on 21st May. It recommends working towards a situation in the UK as a whole where there are "only" 1,000 new positive tests on symptomatic patients per day. It's difficult to know how superseded this is because current figures are below this number, but it indicates what boffins were prepared to advise the government to accept as being an OK situation going forward. It seems they were far more interested in not overwhelming the NHS than in saving lives, and completely oblivious of the difficulty of keeping the pot simmering at that high level of transmission without it boiling over completely.

That they were prepared to advise this for "the UK" as a whole without taking any consideration of the devolved governments' policies or objectives is concerning. That they saw a situation which implies 10 people dying a day on a continuing basis* as acceptable is alarming. And that's without factoring in the serious long-term illness that also goes with it.

I hope very much they've abandoned this. The UK as a whole got down to 440 new cases a day about three weeks ago but is now sitting on 660 (7-day averages). We need to know if they're really trying to get this down, or if they're happy that they're running below the 1000. Both Scotland and NI have explicitly said they're pursuing zero-covid and Wales might be on board too, but Johnson, when asked specifically about whether England would do it also declined to confirm this and instead waffled about making sure NHS capacity wasn't going to be overwhelmed.

Rocky times ahead perhaps?

*ETA: Actually a comparison of all-UK deaths with the number of reported new infections three weeks earlier currently shows that the CFR on this basis is not 1% but actually 13.6%. That is, three weeks ago there were only 3,313 new cases recorded (the lowest week ever) but death this week, which should mainly represent the deaths of people who became infected three weeks ago, numbered 452. So if you're getting 452 deaths following on from 3,313 cases, how many are you expecting from a week with 7,000 new cases (1,000 per day)? Is this an OK place to be?

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Anne Widdecombe wants special 'shopping hours' for mask protesters.

I suggest after closing.

[Captain_Swoop]

Any other country you can think of where, in the midst of the deadliest public health threat since WW2, the govt ***** off on holiday?

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Any other country you can think of where, in the midst of the deadliest public health threat since WW2, the govt ***** off on holiday?

The leader of my country has been on permanent mental holiday since about 1946.

[quadraginta]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

<snip>

In the past Raab has shared his belief that the majority of food bank users aren’t there because of poverty, but due to cash-flow problems.
I assume he’s not here just for a selfie but to give financial advice?

This would seem to presuppose that poverty is not a cash flow problem.

I'm not sure I can get behind that idea.

[Darat]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Any other country you can think of where, in the midst of the deadliest public health threat since WW2, the govt ***** off on holiday?

Come off it, we know Johnson has worked at least one Sunday during the pandemic, if that doesn't show dedication and a willingness to slog away at the problems I don't know what does!

[KDLarsen]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Govt to announce shortly that tourists in Spain will have to quarantine for two weeks when they return (unless they're back by midnight tonight). Second wave of Covid-19 there has prompted decision to kick Spain off the safe country list

Out of curiousity, when they removed the quarantine period in the first place, did the UK government announce any specific statistics that would require imposing the quarantine period again?

Because one month ago, when the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the relaxation of travel restrictions, they stated that it would apply to countries with fewer than 30 new cases per week per 100,000 citizens, and stated that the figure would have to rise to more than 50 new cases per week, before travel restrictions would be reinstated. In addition, were that to happen, travelers would be permitted to finish their holiday before returning home, provided they were then tested upon return to Denmark (we've had mobile testing facilities at most of the major border crossings to facilitate this).

The end result was that, when I went on holiday to Southern France for two weeks, I knew that no matter what, we wouldn't have a surprise quarantine sprung on us.

[Captain_Swoop]

Govt sat obesity isa factor in seriousness of virus symptoms. they are going to tax 'junk food' and push cycling a a way to reduce weight £50 bike repair vouchers are available and
GP surgeries will have a stock of bicycles to lend. If they used them enough, patients would be allowed to keep them.

What a load of *****

[Rolfe]

It's a nonsense. It's only a statistical correlation. Thin people die of covid quite often too. Sometimes fat people survive. Imagine people who won't count a calorie to spare their knees or reduce their risk of heart disease or even look good, losing umpteen kg to slightly reduce their risk of dying of covid if they catch it. It's not going to happen.

And in any case exercise isn't a great way to lose weight, eating less is a great way to lose weight.

If it had been shown that nobody with a BMI of less than 25 ever dies of covid and everybody with a BMI of over 30 always dies of it, there might be a slight point to it. But still not much.

Just don't catch the virus by following all the social distancing rules. It's easier than starving yourself. And government? Commit England to the pursuit of Zero Covid if you want to save lives. (But you don't really, do you?)

[Captain_Swoop]

It's another way to shift blame.

[Rolfe]

It's fairly amazing being in a country that's committed to Zero Covid and seems to be getting there. I'm still following all the rules and then some. I'm still not going into shops or having a haircut, but I'm visiting people in their homes when I know they've been following the rules all along too, and I know deep down that if I wanted to go into the shops I'd be fine.

Only three new cases in the region where I live in the past six weeks. No confirmed deaths in the entire country for 12 days (only six in the whole of July, mostly in the first week). It's like a weight lifting off your shoulders.

I think the plan is to keep the borders open but to jump on every introduced case the minute there's any sign. It's risky and that's the thing everyone is afraid of, but once the tourist season is over it could get easier.

There were some heavy hints being dropped today that the governments of the devolved nations are trying to lean on Johnson to get some sort of joint statement about a common approach to the virus, and since none of the three smaller nations has any intention of giving up the Zero Covid push, what it comes down to is trying to get Johnson on board to get the same objective for England. Ideally to include the Irish government too.

It's the ideal solution to the border dilemma, it's the best thing for the economy of the whole country, and it will be the best thing for everyone in England. But it will probably involve him having to give up on his Serco and Sitel mates running the centralised contact tracing operation and give control back to the local authorities. That's mainly how the devolved nations have progressed so much better. I wonder if he'll do it?

[Samson]

Zero covid beats vaccine ambitions hands down. I really hope Scotland can nail it.
Boris Johnson is a wicked monster for encouraging unnecessary tourism.

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Govt sat obesity isa factor in seriousness of virus symptoms. they are going to tax 'junk food' and push cycling a a way to reduce weight £50 bike repair vouchers are available and
GP surgeries will have a stock of bicycles to lend. If they used them enough, patients would be allowed to keep them.

What a load of *****

Nanny state!

No, wait. That only applies when it's the other lot.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim

Nanny state!

No, wait. That only applies when it's the other lot.

Correct, this is simply encouraging personal responsibility

[Captain_Swoop]

A website offering £50 bike repair vouchers in England crashed after the government scheme launched on Tuesday.

Quote:

An initial 50,000 "Fix Your Bike" vouchers were due to be made available online at 23:45 BST on a first-come, first-served basis.

However, many people complained they received an error message when they tried to access the website.

It was back up just before 04:00 BST but was later paused and by 09:00 BST vouchers were no longer available.

"Vouchers are being released gradually to reflect the capacity of the bike repairers signed up to the scheme," the page said, adding that more vouchers will be made available "as soon as possible".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53576008

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

A website offering £50 bike repair vouchers in England crashed after the government scheme launched on Tuesday.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53576008

Maybe someone could offer the government £50 website repair vouchers.

[Darat]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

A website offering £50 bike repair vouchers in England crashed after the government scheme launched on Tuesday.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53576008

I'm waiting for the small asterisk to be noticed... *£50 off cost of repairs when you spend over £250...

[Carrot Flower King]

Originally Posted by The Don

Correct, this is simply encouraging personal responsibility

Did I miss Johnson taking personal responsibility for contracting Covid by dint of ignoring (despite his later claims) official guidance on social distancing and physical contact and by being a fat get?

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King

Did I miss Johnson taking personal responsibility for contracting Covid by dint of ignoring (despite his later claims) official guidance on social distancing and physical contact and by being a fat get?

Minor amendment

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King

Did I miss Johnson taking personal responsibility for contracting Covid by dint of ignoring (despite his later claims) official guidance on social distancing and physical contact and by being a fat get?

Of course you didn't, personal responsibility is for "other" people. Duh !

[Carrot Flower King]

Yeaahbut, he is still a fat get?

[Rolfe]

He is, and likely to remain so. I'm not sure he's thought this through. He's markedly overweight. If he starts to make a big deal about weight loss and fat-shaming the electorate, people are going to expect him to lead by example. And he's not going to do it.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

It's not false negatives as such, it's people who are tested before they become positive. The best you could do would be to quarantine everyone for say five days, test on day 1 and again on day 5, and only if both are negative can you be reasonably confident the person isn't infected. If the samples were properly collected that is.

Having tested lots of people with active covid-19 this is not true. I have looked after people who have had 4 or 5 negative nose / throat swabs before we get a sputum sample off that is positive. Sputum samples appear way more reliable than nose / throat swabs. CT scans are better. I am pretty sure (anecdotal experience) that if one tests negative once on a swab then that is a person who has not much virus in their upper airways and will test negative again despite having active pneumonia. (Also temperature is not that common in active covid pneumonia, or more correctly having a normal temperature is common.)

I certainly agree that the sort of protocol you suggest reduces the risk of releasing a potential source of infection into the community, but it is not a zero risk option. The question is whether the risk reduction is sufficient, how confident is reasonable?

[Rolfe]

That's interesting. However the only zero risk option is simply not to let anyone in at all. Testing of clinically healthy people is a different ball game from testing the sick. If someone has virus in their lower respiratory tract despite having little in their upper respiratory tract the likelihood that they're walking around apparently healthy is relatively low. Clinically well travellers are a low-risk population to start with. I think if you can then screen out 80% or 90% of the infected people in that population you're probably looking at letting few enough people in that public health precautions thereafter should cope.

I don't know how well respected it would be, but I would also issue all incoming passengers with a fairly conspicuous badge to wear, advising others that they had recently entered the country and they were therefore obliged to maintain strict social distancing for a further week after their second negative rest. They'd also be prohibited from entering potential superspreader venues for that time. Still a nuisance, but not as onerous as quarantine.

[Mojo]

Originally Posted by Samson

Zero covid beats vaccine ambitions hands down. I really hope Scotland can nail it.
Boris Johnson is a wicked monster for encouraging unnecessary tourism.

Contains redundancy.

[Carrot Flower King]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

He is, and likely to remain so. I'm not sure he's thought this through. He's markedly overweight. If he starts to make a big deal about weight loss and fat-shaming the electorate, people are going to expect him to lead by example. And he's not going to do it.

This is pretty much how the Carrot Flower household views the situation.

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by Mojo

Contains redundancy.

Also an inherent misunderstanding. The best tool we could have in our quest for zero covid would be a vaccine.

[Darat]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

He is, and likely to remain so. I'm not sure he's thought this through. He's markedly overweight. If he starts to make a big deal about weight loss and fat-shaming the electorate, people are going to expect him to lead by example. And he's not going to do it.

To me he looks like he has lost weight.

[Rolfe]

Having Covid will do that to you of course.

[Mikemcc]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Why not just test arrivals, those that are clear can just get on with things?

Because somebody can catch it within a few days before arrival and not trigger the test. Better to have a pre-arrival test 2 to 4 days before and capture tracing details. Not perfect but can catch more carriers.

[Captain_Swoop]

“We need to fight obesity” says Tory Party that sold off the playing fields and closed the youth clubs and forced councils to shut sports centres and swimming pools and made it so that millions can never afford healthy food.

[Captain_Swoop]

The govt launched a “Fix your bike” voucher website
It broke in less than an hour
The govt said we should all lose weight
The govt is still issuing vouchers to help us buy Pizza