Continuation Covid-19 and Politics pt 2

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

What specifically are they claiming is nonsense?

And, are you claiming that too, Childlike Empress?

[timhau]

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser

It's not often I see Childlike Empress agree with Trump and Bolsonarno, I guess those lead countries which are sterling examples of how well you can control the virus by ignoring it.

It's heartwarming to see proponents of a non-reality-based worldview find each other so beautifully.

No wait, it's not.

[Childlike Empress]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

What specifically are they claiming is nonsense?

The book that kind of sums it up is here. Has been on top of the bestseller lists for the last six weeks or so.

I myself don't feel like discussing it with you - stopped months ago to read any "COVID"-related threads here. Just too ideological.

[Myriad]

I ran the signs in the Berlin protest footage through a translator.

They all translate to, "Hold my beer."

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by sphenisc

UK had 770 new cases today according to Worldometer.

Also the UK had dropped out of the top 10 for cases and has been overtaken by Mexico for deaths.

In deaths per million we've overtaken fringe case anomaly Andorra to be third. If you exclude the other fringe case of San Marino, only Belgium is worse off than us.

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by jimbob

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...-into-thin-air

That might get more traction in the US politics coronavirus thread, rather than the non-US politics coronavirus thread.

[Arcade22]

Why is it that only one single European country has so much trouble with reopening schools? What makes the UK so exceptionally dysfunctional in that they prioritize opening pubs while squandering their children's futures?

[Matthew Best]

It's the school holidays?

[Darat]

Originally Posted by Arcade22

Why is it that only one single European country has so much trouble with reopening schools? What makes the UK so exceptionally dysfunctional in that they prioritize opening pubs while squandering their children's futures?

(This is from memory so may have changed.) One thing that doesn't help is that we have the highest number of pupils per class and I think in primary schools we have the highest number of pupils per class in the developed world.

[zooterkin]

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress

The book that kind of sums it up is here. Has been on top of the bestseller lists for the last six weeks or so.

Any clues? I’m afraid I never studied German.

Quote:

I myself don't feel like discussing it with you - stopped months ago to read any "COVID"-related threads here. Just too ideological.

You brought it up here.

[Lothian]

Originally Posted by Arcade22

Why is it that only one single European country has so much trouble with reopening schools? What makes the UK so exceptionally dysfunctional in that they prioritize opening pubs while squandering their children's futures?

Pub owners backed brexit, schools did not.

[Lothian]

Harrogate Town are playing at wembley today. Obviously no fans at the game. Also cancelled is the live screening at a socially distanced out door venue. However you can crowd into a pub to watch it.

[Ulf Nereng]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

Any clues? I’m afraid I never studied German.

You brought it up here.

Apparently it's a book that discusses whether Corona-virus is fake news or not, and whether the government has over-reacted to it. I can't tell without reading it what conclusions they make, but I suspect that it's on the side of "not much worse than the flu".

In the science forum topic we try to avoid making it about ideology but instead to stick to the science, so CE not placing it there is a bit odd, IMO.

[Childlike Empress]

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng

Apparently it's a book that discusses whether Corona-virus is fake news or not, and whether the government has over-reacted to it.

"Fehlalarm" translates to "false alarm", not "fake news".

[Ulf Nereng]

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress

"Fehlalarm" translates to "false alarm", not "fake news".

Allright, mea culpa, oh picker of nits.

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

What specifically are they claiming is nonsense?

Lockdown restrictions and masks are unnecessary, Covid-19 is a giant conspiracy et cetera. The usual nonsense.
About fifteen thousand idiots, without masks or adherence to social distancing norms, whining about how preventative measures are inconveniencing them.

It's ironic how the hard-left and anarchists are allowing themselves to be co-opted by the alt-right for this sort of nonsense; it demonstrates their abject cluelessness. It'll be interesting to see the infection rates in 10-15 days. Hopefully those who took part will opt not to waste medical resources on themselves and die quietly.

Though the "grandmothers against the extreme right" counter-protest against the Covidiots was amusing.

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by Myriad

I ran the signs in the Berlin protest footage through a translator.

They all translate to, "Hold my beer."

The "Day of Freedom" slogan was taken from Leni Riefenstahl and the NSDAP.

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by Arcade22

Why is it that only one single European country has so much trouble with reopening schools? What makes the UK so exceptionally dysfunctional in that they prioritize opening pubs while squandering their children's futures?

That'd be BuBu and the conservatives.

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

Any clues? I’m afraid I never studied German.

It's your basic "Corona is a giant overhyped conspiracy" bollocks written by a dermatologist and a YT conspiracy nut.

It's very popular with the German equivalent of people who lap up the Fail but it was torn apart in a couple of days exposing Bhakdi's selective use of numbers and stats, misconceptions, speculation, disinformation and outright lies. There are several online fact-checkers who've debunked the book, but it still appeals to the libertarians/anarchists and people who just don't want to take responsibility.

[Rolfe]

I had a guy on Twitter yesterday following me around punting similar nonsense, purely because I'd posted the truism that the peak of new cases will always come a week or two after a (sufficiently rigorous) lockdown, something the modellers who assumed that people might tire of being locked down before the peak arrived and so it was better to wait until many more had become infected didn't seem to realise.

I didn't try to take him on because frankly life's too short but my laconic two-word replies didn't dissuade him from posting more and more links and berating me for being an idiot and unscientific and so on. I don't know why they're like this. There was one insisting that only a couple of thousand people had died of covid in Britain because apparently if you had diabetes or asthma or indeed anything else up to and probably including athlete's foot, you didn't die of covid, you died of the other thing.

The main thrust of the Twitter guy's arguments was that the disease was already declining before lockdown happened. You can twist figures to prove anything you like if you try hard enough it seems.

[Myriad]

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng

Apparently it's a book that discusses whether Corona-virus is fake news or not, and whether the government has over-reacted to it. I can't tell without reading it what conclusions they make, but I suspect that it's on the side of "not much worse than the flu".

I wonder if the prominent usage of the word "panicmache" ("panic machine") in the subtitle might be a clue.

Quote:

In the science forum topic we try to avoid making it about ideology but instead to stick to the science, so CE not placing it there is a bit odd, IMO.

This is one of the "... and politics" threads though. ETA: Oh, I see, that's what you were pointing out. But CE definitely chose the right thread for what he actually posted.

Anyhow, thanks CE for the warning to add Berlin and Germany to my tier 2 (check weekly) list of polities and regions to watch to learn more about SARS-CoV-2's epidemiology. I hate it when I miss the early stages of a significant change in real time (even though I can review the stats later). The stats in Germany will likely start getting interesting again right around August 22nd.

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Michael Gove's wife: https://twitter.com/WestminsterWAG/s...95372676947968

Quote:

We all have to die sooner or later. If I get Covid and cop it, so be it. My time has come. I'll have had a good life, better than most in this world at any rate. I certainly don't expect the entire nation to bankrupt itself to save my sorry ass.

[Childlike Empress]

Originally Posted by Myriad

Anyhow, thanks CE for the warning to add Berlin and Germany to my tier 2 (check weekly) list of polities and regions to watch to learn more about SARS-CoV-2's epidemiology. I hate it when I miss the early stages of a significant change in real time (even though I can review the stats later). The stats in Germany will likely start getting interesting again right around August 22nd.

We had pretty large "Black Lives Matter" demonstrations here a month or so ago. The effect will be the same.

It's quite possible that they will build up a little propaganda campaign over it, though. But few will buy it. The game is up.

[Childlike Empress]

Originally Posted by Myriad

I wonder if the prominent usage of the word "panicmache" ("panic machine") in the subtitle might be a clue.

It's "Panikmache", it's not in the subtitle and it doesn't mean "panic machine".

[Wudang]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

There was one insisting that only a couple of thousand people had died of covid in Britain because apparently if you had diabetes or asthma or indeed anything else up to and probably including athlete's foot, you didn't die of covid, you died of the other thing.

I recently had to analyze UK cause of death certificates as we recently started getting them for BHRUT patients. I used the guide here .
tl;dr version - these are clearly distinct on death certificates.

[Myriad]

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress

It's "Panikmache", it's not in the subtitle and it doesn't mean "panic machine".

Meh. Close enough; translation is never precise.

Arguably it's not in the subtitle, but the title itself: "CORONA FEHLALARM? ZAHLEN, DATEN UND HINTERGRÜNDE. ZWISCHEN PANIKMACHE UND WISSENSCHAFT: WELCHE MASSNAHMEN SIND IM KAMPF GEGEN VIRUS UND COVID-19 SINNVOLL?" according to the publisher's site. But it's pretty common in English to refer to the portion of a lengthy title that doesn't appear on the book's cover, and/or follows a period or colon, as a subtitle. Note that's a completely different meaning of "subtitle" than text appearing on video screens.

One source translated "panikmache" as "Panic Machine." Their bad, perhaps, as it appears they used Google Translate for that. The usual single-word translation is "scaremongering," which is very much an approximation. The suffix "-mongering" means "selling," while the suffix "-mache" refers to making. "Machine" though related is not the closest equivalent, but neither is "mongering." And "Panik" better translates as "panic" than softened meanings like "scare" or "fright." Either way, it makes the book's political premise clear.

My bad about the "k".

[Myriad]

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress

We had pretty large "Black Lives Matter" demonstrations here a month or so ago. The effect will be the same.

I'm not basing my prediction on any direct effect of the demonstration. Just comparisons of recent past patterns of events in particular regions relative to similar political sentiments.

Quote:

The game is up.

That's very vague. What game are you referring to?

[Childlike Empress]

[meh]

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I had a guy on Twitter yesterday following me around punting similar nonsense, purely because I'd posted the truism that the peak of new cases will always come a week or two after a (sufficiently rigorous) lockdown, something the modellers who assumed that people might tire of being locked down before the peak arrived and so it was better to wait until many more had become infected didn't seem to realise.

I didn't try to take him on because frankly life's too short but my laconic two-word replies didn't dissuade him from posting more and more links and berating me for being an idiot and unscientific and so on. I don't know why they're like this. There was one insisting that only a couple of thousand people had died of covid in Britain because apparently if you had diabetes or asthma or indeed anything else up to and probably including athlete's foot, you didn't die of covid, you died of the other thing.

The main thrust of the Twitter guy's arguments was that the disease was already declining before lockdown happened. You can twist figures to prove anything you like if you try hard enough it seems.

Oh... that's the sort of thing I've been messing with... if you feel like handing me a chew toy...My pinned tweet has shedloads debunking a particular graph that seems popular.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress

The subtitle is "Zahlen, Daten und Hintergründe" - "Numbers, Data and Backgrounds" - as you can see on the cover. The rest is description by the book store I want you to buy it from. Not into amazon links.

Can you provide a quick precis of your analysis of the book, and whether you agree with them? Because presumably, it's influenced your view.

Although the statistics are clear, and fit with the anecdotal data from healthcare workers I know.

So it would have to be pretty rigorous.

[Childlike Empress]

You can take my edit of the post as an answer.

[zooterkin]

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress

We had pretty large "Black Lives Matter" demonstrations here a month or so ago. The effect will be the same.

Not necessarily. At the BLM marches I know about, people were wearing masks and observing social distancing, which clearly these more recent demonstrators were not.

Quote:

It's quite possible that they will build up a little propaganda campaign over it, though. But few will buy it. The game is up.

It is? Do tell.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress

You can take my edit of the post as an answer.

So insinuations but as soon as anyone asks for your view, you back off?

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim

Michael Gove's wife: https://twitter.com/WestminsterWAG/s...95372676947968

https://twitter.com/Marcus_Aure1ius/...713184256?s=20

Quote:

If I was married to Michael Gove I'd welcome death too.

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Oh... that's the sort of thing I've been messing with... if you feel like handing me a chew toy...My pinned tweet has shedloads debunking a particular graph that seems popular.

He seems to have blocked me but the bulk of his stuff was replies to this tweet. https://twitter.com/DrMoragKerr/stat...44112630538240

This is the poster. https://twitter.com/lapogus1

[Captain_Swoop]

The government’s £10bn contact-tracing programme failed to reach almost half the contacts named by infected patients in “non-complex” cases — including people living under the same roof.

The outsourcing giants Serco and Sitel are being paid £192m to provide 18,500 call handlers who are responsible for tracing non-complex contacts referred to them.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...ases-2j522685p

[Cavemonster]

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim

In deaths per million we've overtaken fringe case anomaly Andorra to be third. If you exclude the other fringe case of San Marino, only Belgium is worse off than us.

I've been puzzled by Belgium and recently read an article that suggested their very high rates owed a lot to the way they're counting and they're not actually as badly off as the UK or US, but I could be mistaken.

[Rolfe]

Quote:

The government’s £10bn contact-tracing programme failed to reach almost half the contacts named by infected patients in “non-complex” cases — including people living under the same roof.

The outsourcing giants Serco and Sitel are being paid £192m to provide 18,500 call handlers who are responsible for tracing non-complex contacts referred to them.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...ases-2j522685p

Did they happen to mention that the cluster of cases we had in Scotland a couple of weeks ago arose in a Sitel call centre where the staff were contracted to do contact tracing for NHS England? And that attempts by Sitel to provide a safe working environment appeared to be sketchy at best (in fact call centres weren't even supposed to be open at all, staff were meant to be working from home) and that at their breaks the contact-tracing staff appeared to think that social distancing was something only other people needed to do?

And that the Inverclyde cluster last week has now been linked to the Sitel cluster and was possibly/probably also set off by a Sitel employee?

Honestly, by the sound of it Sitel have created more Covid cases in Scotland than they have prevented in England.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

He seems to have blocked me but the bulk of his stuff was replies to this tweet. https://twitter.com/DrMoragKerr/stat...44112630538240

This is the poster. https://twitter.com/lapogus1

Cheers, I might have a play...

It's odd that some of the most vociferous freeze peach advocates are so block happy with just civil but robust questioning.

This guy for example has blocked me, and keeps saying that the 1999-2000 flu outbreak was worse, and has a nivmce graph showing that, with several hundred retweets, but where if you look at his claimed data source, you see his numbers are inflated... And wrong in multiple other ways.

Amusingly his Twitter bio is the phrase "Nullius in Verba"


https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/s...923564550?s=20

He also seems to be a global warming denier


My pinned tweet thread has quite a few graphs with links to the actual data about this.

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status...778314240?s=20

In that thread, there is a link to a paper showing that people did reduce their mobility significantly just before lockdown- when the seriousness was clear and the government was obviously going to have to impose a lockdown even if the date wasn't clear.

Also some academics comparing regions with earlier and later lockdowns


My block list consists of bots* and literal fascists and precious few elsewhere


*generally sincere single women in their 20s who love god and follow me, presumably for my compelling wriring, which is why they haven't tweeted anything themselves.

[Samson]

The symptoms of this virus are unprecedented global disruption, fear and chaos.
They seem more severe than previous flu outbreaks to me, but what would I know?

Covid attributed deaths to date are replaced in 3 ordinary days of world population growth for example, amd by potential contributors to economic growth, as though we don't have enough of that!