Continuation Covid-19 and Politics pt 2

[Cavemonster]

Originally Posted by Samson

The symptoms of this virus are unprecedented global disruption, fear and chaos.
They seem more severe than previous flu outbreaks to me, but what would I know?

Covid attributed deaths to date are replaced in 3 ordinary days of world population growth for example, amd by potential contributors to economic growth, as though we don't have enough of that!

I'll tell all the grandparents that they don't have to worry about dying of Covid, they'll be replaced within 3 days. I'm sure that will set their minds at ease.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Cavemonster

I'll tell all the grandparents that they don't have to worry about dying of Covid, they'll be replaced within 3 days. I'm sure that will set their minds at ease.

It's not just dying. It's that say about 10% of cases look to suffer at least medium term maybe permanent health damage

[Ulf Nereng]

Originally Posted by Samson

The symptoms of this virus are unprecedented global disruption, fear and chaos.
They seem more severe than previous flu outbreaks to me, but what would I know?

Covid attributed deaths to date are replaced in 3 ordinary days of world population growth for example, amd by potential contributors to economic growth, as though we don't have enough of that!

Covid attriuted deaths to date are with the gargantuan efforts by almost all the world's countries to keep those deaths down. Perhaps those numbers would have been higher without that effort? What do you think? Suppose New York had just ignored it because, you know, we'll just replace the dead with babies in a few days. What would New York's healthcare system look like now? Use your imagination. I know that if I was a doctor or nurse there in that situation I would have just quit. I think I'm a nice enough person, but I'm not putting my life on the line.

[Samson]

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng

Covid attriuted deaths to date are with the gargantuan efforts by almost all the world's countries to keep those deaths down. Perhaps those numbers would have been higher without that effort? What do you think? Suppose New York had just ignored it because, you know, we'll just replace the dead with babies in a few days. What would New York's healthcare system look like now? Use your imagination. I know that if I was a doctor or nurse there in that situation I would have just quit. I think I'm a nice enough person, but I'm not putting my life on the line.

We studied irony litotes sarcasm and a plethora of figures of speech.

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Did they happen to mention that the cluster of cases we had in Scotland a couple of weeks ago arose in a Sitel call centre where the staff were contracted to do contact tracing for NHS England? And that attempts by Sitel to provide a safe working environment appeared to be sketchy at best (in fact call centres weren't even supposed to be open at all, staff were meant to be working from home) and that at their breaks the contact-tracing staff appeared to think that social distancing was something only other people needed to do?

And that the Inverclyde cluster last week has now been linked to the Sitel cluster and was possibly/probably also set off by a Sitel employee?

Honestly, by the sound of it Sitel have created more Covid cases in Scotland than they have prevented in England.

I'm sure that can't be right, I have it on good authority that outsourcing is the universal panacea and solution to all the country's problems. There can't possibly be a string of high profile **** ups like this.

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by Samson

We studied irony litotes sarcasm and a plethora of figures of speech.

Did the lecturer mention that care should be taken as irony & sarcasm don't always come across in the written word?

[Ulf Nereng]

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer

Did the lecturer mention that care should be taken as irony & sarcasm don't always come across in the written word?

Especially when those ironic words are the same as some as some people say in earnest. But okay!

[Darat]

First Dog on the moon has a very pointed cartoon this week regarding Victoria's shutdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...d-of-the-virus

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

He seems to have blocked me but the bulk of his stuff was replies to this tweet. https://twitter.com/DrMoragKerr/stat...44112630538240

This is the poster. https://twitter.com/lapogus1

Just looked..KBF idiocy without the hashtag.


Over on Scrutable.science there's a thread titled "Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise" which is about stuff like this.

Lots of people who have learned to make graphs in Excel, and often torture data, or just make up correction factors - like https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes who's blocked me.

On a personal note, I'm glad that it's not just engineers who are cranks this time round.


I've just posted the Israel data as a reply to one of his tweets at you, because it has a classic second wave. Which looks to be peaking with the reimposition of restrictions.

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by jimbob

So insinuations but as soon as anyone asks for your view, you back off?

You were expecting more?

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

The government’s £10bn contact-tracing programme failed to reach almost half the contacts named by infected patients in “non-complex” cases — including people living under the same roof.

The outsourcing giants Serco and Sitel are being paid £192m to provide 18,500 call handlers who are responsible for tracing non-complex contacts referred to them.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...ases-2j522685p

Ours gets >85%......
Oh and at a fraction of the cost/case too.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by catsmate

Ours gets >85%......
Oh and at a fraction of the cost/case too.

That's because yours is designed to test and track and in so doing protect public health. Ours is designed to reward Tory MPs, their mates and donors. And public health benefits are purely accidental/ incidental.

[Samson]

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer

Did the lecturer mention that care should be taken as irony & sarcasm don't always come across in the written word?

No, and I understand everything posters here say on Cummings, Johnson and others. I also added an exclamation mark when suggesting there was enough world economic growth for now without adding 6 months of covid deaths every 3 days with replacements.

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by The Don

That's because yours is designed to test and track and in so doing protect public health. Ours is designed to reward Tory MPs, their mates and donors. And public health benefits are purely accidental/ incidental.

The HSE has offered the Irish T&T app to any country for free.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by catsmate

The HSE has offered the Irish T&T app to any country for free.

How could that possibly help Dom's mates ?

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by jimbob

I've just posted the Israel data as a reply to one of his tweets at you, because it has a classic second wave. Which looks to be peaking with the reimposition of restrictions.

That was exactly what I thought of doing. But I really couldn't be bothered. I didn't really try to counter any of it because it seemed like a pointless rabbit-hole.

My first thought was the USA, but then I thought, well he'd just say the first peak was the NE, New York and thereabouts, and the second peak was in the south. It's like Italy and the UK peaking at different times but all allocated to one country instead of a continent.

Then I thought about Israel and thought he might say that this was really the first peak, that they hadn't had a first peak. I mean obviously because they'd locked down fast in the first instance and you can see where the flaw is in his reasoning if he thinks lockdowns don't do anything, but frankly I couldn't be bothered.

If you get a response, do post the link.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by catsmate

The HSE has offered the Irish T&T app to any country for free.

How does that make money for the Tories and their donors?

[Rolfe]

Scotland is gearing up to use the Irish app. If it does, I'll participate. I'd never have let the Boris model near my phone, I'd have given up the phone (or never taken it out of the house) first.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

That was exactly what I thought of doing. But I really couldn't be bothered. I didn't really try to counter any of it because it seemed like a pointless rabbit-hole.

My first thought was the USA, but then I thought, well he'd just say the first peak was the NE, New York and thereabouts, and the second peak was in the south. It's like Italy and the UK peaking at different times but all allocated to one country instead of a continent.

Then I thought about Israel and thought he might say that this was really the first peak, that they hadn't had a first peak. I mean obviously because they'd locked down fast in the first instance and you can see where the flaw is in his reasoning if he thinks lockdowns don't do anything, but frankly I couldn't be bothered.

If you get a response, do post the link.

Oh I will...

Bizarrely, what seems to be a genuine "Independent pro Trump" has retweeted several of my pinned tweet thread tweets pointing out that it's not just flu...

[Rolfe]

I've seen some of it because I'm still tagged in.

I don't mind discussing this sort of thing where someone is genuinely looking for answers, but a committed zealot is a waste of electrons really. He's not even discussing my initial point which is that the timing of the peak is an absolute effect of the timing of the start of the lockdown and delaying the lockdown because you think that people will have tired of it all by the time the peak comes is so brain-dead I honestly don't have the words.

[Samson]

Peter Thomson won 5 British golf opens.
He said it is not how far you hit the ball, but how near.
Stay on the fairway, don't overshoot the green into the rough (like Melbourne).

Politicians should consider how near they are to elimination, that is the measure at any given time.

Boris Johnson's covid game looks like my golf game.

[Puppycow]

The Japanese government doesn't seem too concerned with the second wave that is currently brewing.

Japan gov't will not ask people to forgo summer travel due to virus

Quote:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's top spokesman said Monday the government has no intention to request people refrain from traveling to their hometowns and elsewhere during the upcoming Obon holidays despite the novel coronavirus' continued spread in parts of the country.

"We are not asking people to refrain across the board. We are just asking them to be very cautious," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga at a press conference.

Yasutoshi Nishimura, minister in charge of the coronavirus response, said the previous day the matter should be handled carefully while expressing concerns about the likelihood of increased contact between those who return to their hometowns and elderly people who are at a higher risk of developing serious symptoms.

But Suga said Nishimura's comments merely meant the government will hear experts' opinions on the matter and the risk can be minimized if people take thorough anti-virus measures, such as wearing face masks and washing hands.

The remarks came as the government struggles to balance the need to reopen the economy while keeping the spread of the coronavirus in check.

Traditionally, the summer travel during the Obon holidays means people going to visit their (often elderly) parents. This would seem to be risky right now with the virus on the rise.

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by catsmate

The HSE has offered the Irish T&T app to any country for free.

Seems like they could put it on the app store without waiting for the UK government's permission and people could just download it for themselves.

[gypsyjackson]

Might be a bit harsh on the Irish system to have to deal with the movements of 70m people instead of 5m! But I can see a case for an ‘Island of Ireland’ approach - we used to do that for animal disease.

[Wudang]

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim

Seems like they could put it on the app store without waiting for the UK government's permission and people could just download it for themselves.

Speaking as someone with many years in IT operations, no. The background system will have been provisioned for the population of Ireland plus ideally some elbow room. The last thing they'll want is random countries overloading their system.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Wudang

Speaking as someone with many years in IT operations, no. The background system will have been provisioned for the population of Ireland plus ideally some elbow room. The last thing they'll want is random countries overloading their system.

Also it is no use unless there is a userbase in the country of interest.

It *has* to be done at an official level.

[Rolfe]

I can't find the story on the BBC site now but I swear I read it yesterday. The Scottish government is in negotiations with the Irish government for Scotland to adopt the Irish app as well. I imagine when it's official we'll be told about it.

I discovered that my Android phone had automatically downloaded software for the aborted English contact tracing app and I was not a happy bunny at all.

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by Wudang

Speaking as someone with many years in IT operations, no. The background system will have been provisioned for the population of Ireland plus ideally some elbow room. The last thing they'll want is random countries overloading their system.

They're literally saying that they'll give it to any country that wants it for free. What's the difference between the British government saying "we'd like that, please" and them putting it on the UK app store?

[jadebox]

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim

They're literally saying that they'll give it to any country that wants it for free. What's the difference between the British government saying "we'd like that, please" and them putting it on the UK app store?

Exactly what Wudang said. Without the servers to process the data, the app wouldn't work. If other countries want to use it, they will first have to set up servers to receive and process data from the app.

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by gypsyjackson

Might be a bit harsh on the Irish system to have to deal with the movements of 70m people instead of 5m! But I can see a case for an ‘Island of Ireland’ approach - we used to do that for animal disease.

Sigh. Look at how the technology works.

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I can't find the story on the BBC site now but I swear I read it yesterday. The Scottish government is in negotiations with the Irish government for Scotland to adopt the Irish app as well. I imagine when it's official we'll be told about it.

I discovered that my Android phone had automatically downloaded software for the aborted English contact tracing app and I was not a happy bunny at all.

Not BBC.

ETA: Reuters.

Quote:

Scotland’s devolved government announced on Friday that its tracing app is in development using the same software as Ireland’s and is also being built by NearForm.

[Rolfe]

The BBC did have a report on it though. Thanks for finding these.

[Wudang]

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim

They're literally saying that they'll give it to any country that wants it for free. What's the difference between the British government saying "we'd like that, please" and them putting it on the UK app store?

Think of it like some of the early Amazon apps. You'd install from the app store then get a "service not available in your region" when you try to use it.
Also the NHS's rules on data use, access, retention etc are very strict. I deliberately stay away from all that as much as possible given the constraints of my job. I wish the fines for electoral offences were half as onerous.

eta: And I believe they're giving it away in the same sense we do. We're delighted if someone wants to take our software and use it - free, it's all on public repos in github - but they have to build it, provide their own servers, data feeds etc.

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by jadebox

Exactly what Wudang said. Without the servers to process the data, the app wouldn't work. If other countries want to use it, they will first have to set up servers to receive and process data from the app.

Oh, I get what you're saying. With you.

[zooterkin]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I discovered that my Android phone had automatically downloaded software for the aborted English contact tracing app and I was not a happy bunny at all.

Are you sure that's what it was, and not the generic Covid-19 tracking enabling software?

[gypsyjackson]

Originally Posted by catsmate

Sigh. Look at how the technology works.

?

I don’t have knowledge of the Irish technology, but if it’s similar to the system we have in Malaysia, you register at each building you enter except your home address, and the app sends that information to a central database. Businesses can get a QR code by registering (now compulsory). If someone tests positive, then the system is interrogated to see where they have been and contacts can be traced and tested.

Here we have 30m people, and I assume the database has been made big enough to handle the check-ins of whatever the average number of movements is for a certain time period plus wriggle room. If businesses and individuals in, say, Thailand could download it and start registering, I wouldn’t be sure it could cope with the extra load. Thailand only has double the population of Malaysia, let alone 13 times.

ETA - I see Wudang explained it better than me. Sorry.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

That was exactly what I thought of doing. But I really couldn't be bothered. I didn't really try to counter any of it because it seemed like a pointless rabbit-hole.

My first thought was the USA, but then I thought, well he'd just say the first peak was the NE, New York and thereabouts, and the second peak was in the south. It's like Italy and the UK peaking at different times but all allocated to one country instead of a continent.

Then I thought about Israel and thought he might say that this was really the first peak, that they hadn't had a first peak. I mean obviously because they'd locked down fast in the first instance and you can see where the flaw is in his reasoning if he thinks lockdowns don't do anything, but frankly I couldn't be bothered.

If you get a response, do post the link.

Oh, million dollar challenge material there:

https://twitter.com/lapogus1/status/1290385128586465283

Quote:

Replying to
@ParkinJim

@DrMoragKerr
and 4 others
Yes, Israel locked down early enough to the virus stop spread through the 20% of people in the community who are susceptible. Lockdown is a pointless endeavor, it only works until you open back up.
Another T cell study today - 81% had cross reactivity :

Quote:

Quote Tweet https://twitter.com/venivici27/statu...67352755687427

No Problem Sun with rays
@venivici27
· Aug 3
New German study (w/ link): 81% who have not had contact w/ SarsCov2 already have cross-reactive T-cells and thus certain background immunity. This confirms earlier studies on T-cell immunity. @daniellevitt22 @MLevitt_NP2013 @FatEmperor @AlistairHaimesDown pointing backhand index https://researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1
9:32 PM · Aug 3, 2020·Twitter Web App

And once again quoting Levitt - someone who at the end of May, when Sweden had over 4000 deaths predicted they probably wouldn't get to 5000.

It's now over 6000, as a naive look at trends would have predicted.

I asked if only 20% of the population are susceptible, how that squares with higher infection rates observed in particular outbreaks.

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status...11119572647936

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim

They're literally saying that they'll give it to any country that wants it for free. What's the difference between the British government saying "we'd like that, please" and them putting it on the UK app store?

Common sense? Public duty?

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by gypsyjackson

?

I don’t have knowledge of the Irish technology,

So you don't know how the app works.

It's not built on centralised, server based, data storage. It uses Bluetooth and the Exposure Notification Service APIs to identify when one person comes in close contact with another on a given day (based on Bluetooth ‘handshakes’ from their devices). This is only logged if people spend more than 15 minutes within two metres distance (more-or-less, it is based on BT).
Then if a person later voluntarily logs in the app that they have been diagnosed with Covid-19, anyone who was in close contact with them would be notified anonymously.

If you are confirmed to have Covid-19 the HSE will ask for consent to collect the random IDs of the persons (well devices really) your phone has logged as being within close contact. This is done via a time-limited SMS code to allow for the data to be transferred.

These identifiers are generated randomly and auto-delete after fourteen days.

There is an entirely voluntary opt-in based Covid Check-In option in the app. You can log if you're feeling healthy that day or if you're displaying any symptoms (and the symptoms checklist includes the six sets).
This will also help give the HSE an idea of the general population’s overall health without revealing specific personal information on users.

Users are asked, not compelled, to provide certain personal information: age, gender and locality. The latter is quite coarse, e.g. Dublin south city, Galway county. No specific addresses. There's a further op-in to provide a contact number or email. Again, this is voluntary.

The server loading in minimal, it's basically a peer-to-peer or decentralised model. Unlike the NHS attempt.
Almost all data sent through the app requires explicit user op-in and consent; these settings can be changed at any time.

It's in use by over a million people and has detected infection.

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

The BBC did have a report on it though. Thanks for finding these.

I remember a couple of stories, though not one relating to Scotland. Certainly there is interest.