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Old 1st February 2020, 05:56 PM   #2681
Captain_Swoop
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The alternative is to just agree to everything the other side wants.
No, it is to negotiate in good faith to reach a mutually acceptable outcome.
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Old 1st February 2020, 05:59 PM   #2682
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Also given its an election year in the USA how much progress will there actually be on a trade deal?
Before the election: None. Zip. Nada.

The Dems are not going to give Trump another trade deal, no matter how bad it is.

After the election, assuming Trump loses, very, very little attention will be focused on foreign trade deals given the YUGE internal problems the USA will be facing after four years of a disastrous administration. BJ will have to get in line.
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Old 1st February 2020, 06:00 PM   #2683
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Don't tell me what I think. The sheer impudence and presumptuousness that lies behind this personalised message....
Where'd all the hostility come from? He just asked a question.
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Old 1st February 2020, 06:46 PM   #2684
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Talking tough only works if you have leverage and credibility, Boris Johnson has neither.



Yes, which is pretty much what the UK is going to have to do in all its trade negotiations however much Little Englanders stamp their feet and demand special treatment. If the EU, which actually wants a reasonable deal, is playing hardball what do you think the USA and China are going to do?
If the deal on offer is a bad one, then the UK doesn't accept it, and trades instead under WTO rules. This applies to all countries (and protectionist trading blocs) that the UK negotiates with. This is very simple and obvious: only the petulant foot-stamping remainers seem unable to understand it.
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Old 1st February 2020, 06:48 PM   #2685
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The "Hold it! Next man makes a move, the ****** gets it" school of negotiation


That is exactly the first thing that came to mind for me.

I even cued up a link to the appropriate clip from YouTube, but I wasn't sure if I'd get in trouble or not for posting it.

What the hell.

Clip from "R' rated movie Blazing Saddles.

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Old 1st February 2020, 07:13 PM   #2686
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John Bolton Tweeted

@AmbJohnBolton
Brexit is done! Happy first full day of UK Independence as they reclaim their sovereignty from the EU. Brexit reflects deeply held views that the British enjoy governing themselves & are done surrendering their interests to the EU bureaucracy
@BorisJohnson
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Old 1st February 2020, 08:00 PM   #2687
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Garage acts like an ******** in his departing speech to the EU parliament.

Yesterday chamber’s vice-president Mairead McGuiness turned off Nigel Farage’s microphone and said: ‘Please sit down, resume your seats, put your flags away and take them with you if you’re leaving now’.

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/30/eu-te...7/?ito=cbshare
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/

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Old 2nd February 2020, 01:04 AM   #2688
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Talking tough to try to secure a good deal. Negotiation 101. Something Theresa May was never prepared to do, but something the EU has done throughout, and will continue to do.
Terrible way to negotiate something like a trade deal, it's a little kids view of business negotiations.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 01:10 AM   #2689
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The alternative is to just agree to everything the other side wants.
No. The alternative is to sit down, understand what both you and the "other side" want, understand what is most important for each side, understand where each side can compromise if necessary, and then work with the other side to come up with an agreement that both of you are satisfied with. Now in trade talks it is slightly different in that you start with an agreed deal and are then trying to improve on that deal for both sides.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 01:10 AM   #2690
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
The Guardian: Johnson to impose full customs checks on goods from EU – report.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...from-eu-report

Opps...
This will impact greatly on the Just-In-Time business model originating from Japan and which is is now the standard for the car industry (amongst many others, especially online retailers).

Quote:
The devastating impact of a hard Brexit on the UK car industry was laid bare on Tuesday to MPs, who were told every 15 minutes of customs delays would cost some manufacturers up to £850,000 a year.

Presenting the industry’s most detailed evidence yet to the business select committee, Honda UK said it relied on 350 trucks a day arriving from Europe to keep its giant Swindon factory operating, with just an hour’s worth of parts being held on the production line.

The Japanese-owned company said it would take 18 months to set up new procedures and warehouses if Britain left the customs union but that, with 2m daily component movements, even minor delays at Dover and the Channel tunnel would force hundreds of its trucks to wait for the equivalent of 90 hours a day.
Guardian, article from two years ago.

In other words, manufacturers are going to have to regress to the old-fashioned system of keeping stocks of all the parts, together with making goods in advance of orders so that they are ready to deliver when the orders come in. If they get the forecast wrong, then surely going into liquidation - or, more likely, moving production to a more customs friendly country - will be the outcome.

British cars are extremely popular here in Finland but the car sales market is price sensitive. An increase of the predicted 10% will result in consumers turning to the competitive Italian and Czech market, instead. Honda is a big seller here, too, presumably imported from the production lines in the UK. (The Toyota Varis is the bestseller, I believe.)

Quote:
While 56% of British car exports go to Europe, just 7% of EU exports go the UK. “The UK is an important market but what matters more is protecting the EU single market,” said Hawes.
From the same article, there is the issue of the work force:

Quote:
The industry also fears the impact of new immigration rules for EU nationals. Already 14% of Honda’s 3,500 to 4,000-strong Swindon workforce are from other EU countries, but this is growing fast: of the 600 extra workers hired to build new Civic model last year, 40% were EU workers, as are 30% of the staff at the company’s European HQ in Bracknell.
EU citizens living in the UK didn't even get a vote so I can't see them hanging around for long, anyway.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 01:11 AM   #2691
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If the deal on offer is a bad one, then the UK doesn't accept it, and trades instead under WTO rules. This applies to all countries (and protectionist trading blocs) that the UK negotiates with. This is very simple and obvious: only the petulant foot-stamping remainers seem unable to understand it.
Sometimes taking a bad deal is better than going with the alternative on offer, like trading on only WTO terms. But that's something that the current batch of Brexiteers seem determined to find out the hard way.

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Old 2nd February 2020, 01:44 AM   #2692
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Where'd all the hostility come from? He just asked a question.
There is a contingent of Amanda Knox fans who follow me around from thread to thread taking snide swipes at me simply because my view differs from theirs on one topic. Grow up, guys!
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Old 2nd February 2020, 02:19 AM   #2693
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
Sometimes taking a bad deal is better than going with the alternative on offer, like trading on only WTO terms.
Why?
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Old 2nd February 2020, 02:26 AM   #2694
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Why?
We'll probably find out why that is in the next couple of years... if the UKgov continues on its present heading. Not really in the mood to explain today.

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Old 2nd February 2020, 03:44 AM   #2695
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Why?
Because the "bad" deal is still better than the WTO rules and regulations.

I suspect we are still going to get so much crap from the likes of the Mail and Express talking about "betrayal", and "we voted for Brexit not Init" when we are negotiating deals.

We have already "given up our sovereignty" in regards to trading internationally by signing on to the WTO. Any deal should be considered "bad" only if we end up with something worse than WTO rules.

And sadly it is just too easy for the media to make profits from pushing simplistic, stupid and harmful headlines rather than objective reporting.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 04:36 AM   #2696
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Talking explicitly about products. Unless the UK explicitly adopts the EU standard (politically difficult because that would make us a "rule taker") then the product in question would have to be recertified for the EU regardless of whether the UK standard was higher, lower or equivalent. Certification is a time consuming and expensive process which may be worthwhile if you're doing millions of pounds worth of business but not if you're a smaller company trying to break into a market.
No it wouldnít. Itís already been certified to EU standards. Itís the same product. It doesnít need to get recertified if the product doesnít change.

As for small producers, well, you are providing a good argument for why EU membership is a bad deal. You donít get a break on regulations by being a member.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 04:39 AM   #2697
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If the deal on offer is a bad one, then the UK doesn't accept it, and trades instead under WTO rules. This applies to all countries (and protectionist trading blocs) that the UK negotiates with. This is very simple and obvious: only the petulant foot-stamping remainers seem unable to understand it.
Pathetic. Remainers have constantly pointed out that any deal will be worse than we currently have and that no deal will leave us on damaging WTO terms. Brexiteers called this 'project fear' and told us Europe needs the UK more than we need the EU. This will be the easiest deal ever. We will have free trade with the EU and it won't cost us a penny because German car makers will insist on it. We will also get better trade deals with the rest of the world.
This is what 17.4m people voted for.
The only foot stamping will come from the betrayed when they realise they have been lied to.

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Old 2nd February 2020, 04:50 AM   #2698
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
No it wouldnít. Itís already been certified to EU standards. Itís the same product. It doesnít need to get recertified if the product doesnít change.
Post-Brexit the raw materials or components might come from sources that were previously non-compliant with EU standards and therefore avoided. But, no doubt, this is why you were careful to say "if the product doesn't change". Has Tesco's frozen chicken casserole 'changed' if it contains chlorine-washed chicken?

If the UK has to observe EU rules on such matters in order to export chicken casseroles then we are accepting their rules. If we don't then the product cannot be exported to the EU.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 04:53 AM   #2699
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Because the "bad" deal is still better than the WTO rules and regulations.
In which case it's not really "bad".
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Old 2nd February 2020, 04:54 AM   #2700
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
No it wouldnít. Itís already been certified to EU standards. Itís the same product. It doesnít need to get recertified if the product doesnít change.



As for small producers, well, you are providing a good argument for why EU membership is a bad deal. You donít get a break on regulations by being a member.
You still have no clue do you? This has been explained numerous times over the years...

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Old 2nd February 2020, 04:54 AM   #2701
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If the deal on offer is a bad one, then the UK doesn't accept it, and trades instead under WTO rules. This applies to all countries (and protectionist trading blocs) that the UK negotiates with. This is very simple and obvious: only the petulant foot-stamping remainers seem unable to understand it.
Ah another 'I know you are what am I?' response from you.

And now you are suggesting not only do we trade on the worst possible terms with the EU but the rest of the world as well if they don't recognize the specialness of the UK, not so much simple as simple-minded.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
In which case it's not really "bad".
Well of course as you, hopefully, understand if its worse than what we have now then yes its bad.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 04:57 AM   #2702
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Post-Brexit the raw materials or components might come from sources that were previously non-compliant with EU standards and therefore avoided.
Why would they? Only if thereís a cost savings which would offset the regulatory burden.

Quote:
But, no doubt, this is why you were careful to say "if the product doesn't change".
That burden applies to EU producers too, they donít get a pass on recertification if their products change. You cannot simultaneously argue EU rules are a huge burden when the UK is out but not a huge burden when they are in.

Quote:
If the UK has to observe EU rules on such matters in order to export chicken casseroles then we are accepting their rules. If we don't then the product cannot be exported to the EU.
But now producers have a choice they didnít have before.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 04:59 AM   #2703
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
You still have no clue do you? This has been explained numerous times over the years...

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Even if I assume you are right, this post is still an utter failure, containing no useful information about the subject at hand.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 04:59 AM   #2704
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Foreign Secretary has told UK diplomats not to “sit next to EU counterparts" at any international meeting or event.

Petty much?
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Old 2nd February 2020, 05:00 AM   #2705
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
And now you are suggesting not only do we trade on the worst possible terms with the EU but the rest of the world as well if they don't recognize the specialness of the UK.
No. Exactly the opposite. I'm suggesting that we trade on the best possible terms on offer. If the offered terms are worse than WTO then we stick with WTO.
Remainers are now adopting a masochist stance where they want us to accept terms that will make things as bad as possible: they want the country to suffer just to prove that the remainers were right.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 05:02 AM   #2706
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
No it wouldnít. Itís already been certified to EU standards. Itís the same product. It doesnít need to get recertified if the product doesnít change.

As for small producers, well, you are providing a good argument for why EU membership is a bad deal. You donít get a break on regulations by being a member.
The products would still have to be explicitly recertified because the UK wouldn't be compliant.

You don't get a break on regulations as a member but you don't have to bear the expense of certification.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 05:05 AM   #2707
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. Exactly the opposite. I'm suggesting that we trade on the best possible terms on offer. If the offered terms are worse than WTO then we stick with WTO.
Remainers are now adopting a masochist stance where they want us to accept terms that will make things as bad as possible: they want the country to suffer just to prove that the remainers were right.
Got any evidence or is this yet another Brexiteer lie?
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Old 2nd February 2020, 05:07 AM   #2708
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The products would still have to be explicitly recertified because the UK wouldn't be compliant.

You don't get a break on regulations as a member but you don't have to bear the expense of certification.
Give me an example of how you think this works, with a specific product certification requirement.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 05:15 AM   #2709
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
In which case it's not really "bad".
As I posted it depends on your starting point. Compared to WTO it may not be bad, but compared to the old EU deal it may be.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 05:18 AM   #2710
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Because the "bad" deal is still better than the WTO rules and regulations.
.
Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
In which case it's not really "bad".
Jesus, didn't take long for standards to hit Rock bottom. Have brexiteer expectations fallen that far?. Less than a year ago Boris was saying

I say to all the doubters, dude, we are going to energise the country.....We are going to take advantage of all the opportunities it is going to bring in in a new spirit of can-do, and we are once again going to believe in ourselves and what we can achieve."

And now you are setting WTO as the benchmark for good. What happened to getting better deals than we currently have? Where is your can do? Why are you resigned to a worse deal that we have? Why are you dismissing the Brexit campaigners as a bunch of liars? Why do you no longer believe brexit can give us better deals than we had? The easiest deals ever. Where has you optimisation and belief gone?
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Old 2nd February 2020, 05:58 AM   #2711
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. Exactly the opposite. I'm suggesting that we trade on the best possible terms on offer. If the offered terms are worse than WTO then we stick with WTO.
Remainers are now adopting a masochist stance where they want us to accept terms that will make things as bad as possible: they want the country to suffer just to prove that the remainers were right.
No deals will be offered that are worse than WTO, but the main choice will be between the 'worse than now but still ok, but you need to keep following the EU rules' deal from the EU, the 'bend over and take it' deal from Trump or WTO.

All of which will be worse than the current deals, as the UK has severely weakened its position in the international market.
And since the first option will go agains brexit jingoism as 'betrayal', you're about to bend over and take it.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 06:16 AM   #2712
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
No deals will be offered that are worse than WTO
Of course they won't. However repeat it enough and then the brexit lemmings will then see WTO or a marginally better deal as a fantastic result.

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Old 2nd February 2020, 06:24 AM   #2713
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
Of course negotiation 101 works a lot better from a strong position, and the UK does not have that.
But sure, threaten to harm your economy a lot. I'm sure that will work better this time.
I have for a long time thought this is the Johnson's attempted negotiating approach:
In case you are unfamiliar with this scene - the language is NSFW.
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ETA: The link works when I preview the post but not when I read my post:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I
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OECD healthcare spending
Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare
https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt

Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK

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Old 2nd February 2020, 06:30 AM   #2714
Darat
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Jesus, didn't take long for standards to hit Rock bottom. Have brexiteer expectations fallen that far?. Less than a year ago Boris was saying

I say to all the doubters, dude, we are going to energise the country.....We are going to take advantage of all the opportunities it is going to bring in in a new spirit of can-do, and we are once again going to believe in ourselves and what we can achieve."

And now you are setting WTO as the benchmark for good. What happened to getting better deals than we currently have? Where is your can do? Why are you resigned to a worse deal that we have? Why are you dismissing the Brexit campaigners as a bunch of liars? Why do you no longer believe brexit can give us better deals than we had? The easiest deals ever. Where has you optimisation and belief gone?
I think we will see a form of schizophrenia. Anything better than WTO will be be portrayed as a betrayal, as "brexit in name only" because of course it will mean we've agreed to something with the EU which by definition has to mean it is bad., rather than "it's a better deal than WTO".
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Old 2nd February 2020, 06:47 AM   #2715
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When diplomats sitting alongside diplomats from EU countries is seen as a bad thing, any kind of deal at all with the EU will be seen as a betrayal.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 06:54 AM   #2716
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Give me an example of how you think this works, with a specific product certification requirement.
After Brexit, UK bodies any CE certification done by UK bodies will no longer be recognised. All products will have to recertified by a body recognised by the EU.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 07:02 AM   #2717
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Got any evidence or is this yet another Brexiteer lie?
Ceptimus doesn't do evidence, its just him getting in early to blame Remainers when Brexit turns out to be a fiasco.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 07:04 AM   #2718
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. Exactly the opposite. I'm suggesting that we trade on the best possible terms on offer. If the offered terms are worse than WTO then we stick with WTO.
Remainers are now adopting a masochist stance where they want us to accept terms that will make things as bad as possible: they want the country to suffer just to prove that the remainers were right.
Another lie, the best terms on offer were the ones we already had as a member of the EU, its the Brexiteers who are insisting on worse terms.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 07:28 AM   #2719
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Another lie, the best terms on offer were the ones we already had as a member of the EU, its the Brexiteers who are insisting on worse terms.
I don't think it is actually a lie. Ceptimus really seems to believe that the UK will get better deals with everyone. Because the Empire.
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Old 2nd February 2020, 07:42 AM   #2720
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
After Brexit, UK bodies any CE certification done by UK bodies will no longer be recognised. All products will have to recertified by a body recognised by the EU.
CE certification is mostly done by the manufacturer, not by any recognized body. The only thing that changes in those cases is the manufacturer will have to transfer the Technical File for the product to somebody within the EU, but there is no additional certification needed. During the transition period, UK certifying bodies will still be valid, we shall see what happens after that. I doubt prior certifications will expire, since I see no provision in the rules for certification expiring if the certifying body simply goes out of business.
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