American Civil War II: Is It Coming? - Page 5

The Great Zaganza · 24th September 2020, 06:18 AM

Originally Posted by carlosy

There are two important answers missing in the poll:

- When is it going to end?

and

- Who is going to win?

I can answer the second one:

China and Russia.

Steve · 25th September 2020, 04:57 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

I can answer the second one:

China and Russia.

That is already happening as Trump alienates many former allies and friendly countries. It will continue without need of a physical American civil war.

Crazy Chainsaw · 25th September 2020, 05:16 AM

I favor just blowing up the whole universe and starting over the Civil War has been going on for years in Silence now it's just out in the open.https://www.pbs.org/necwshour/nation...aw-enforcement

There was never any Intelligent life in this Universe anyway!

The Great Zaganza · 25th September 2020, 05:44 AM

we get smarter by learning from our mistakes.

So logically, we should make as many mistakes as possible.

Steve · 25th September 2020, 05:48 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

we get smarter by learning from our mistakes.

So logically, we should make as many mistakes as possible.

You are right on track. Still waiting to see the "getting smarter" part.

theprestige · 25th September 2020, 06:58 AM

Originally Posted by Crazy Chainsaw

I favor just blowing up the whole universe and starting over the Civil War has been going on for years in Silence now it's just out in the open.https://www.pbs.org/necwshour/nation...aw-enforcement

Heh. I was about to say that as long as NPR and PBS are doing business as usual, we probably aren't anywhere near a civil war. But then I realized your PBS link returns "page not found". I guess I better start prepping!

The Atheist · 10th November 2020, 05:10 PM

Trump fires Espiner.

Odds on Civil War 2.0 shorten.

The Atheist · 13th January 2021, 10:42 AM

ABC (Australia's public/government media network):

This model forecast the US's current unrest a decade ago. It now says 'civil war'

dudalb · 13th January 2021, 10:50 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

ABC (Australia's public/government media network):

This model forecast the US's current unrest a decade ago. It now says 'civil war'

WHich you would just love, given your hatred for the United States.

Steve · 13th January 2021, 12:17 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

WHich you would just love, given your hatred for the United States.

Well, these days it sure isn"t the type of country most sane people would choose to live in.

PhantomWolf · 13th January 2021, 01:00 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

WHich you would just love, given your hatred for the United States.

Haven't you been predicting a new civil war for at least the last year?

AnonyMoose · 13th January 2021, 04:36 PM

Originally Posted by PhantomWolf

Haven't you been predicting a new civil war for at least the last year?

He was. But other denizens of this forum starting pointing their fingers at him and laughing saying he was being hyperbolic and overly dramatic. So now he's swinging in the complete opposite direction in an attempt to get back in with the cool kids of ISF.

Mader Levap · 13th January 2021, 04:52 PM

Originally Posted by AnonyMoose

He was. But other denizens of this forum starting pointing their fingers at him and laughing saying he was being hyperbolic and overly dramatic. So now he's swinging in the complete opposite direction in an attempt to get back in with the cool kids of ISF.

I got impression it is more like "only I can predict doom of USA, anyone else doing same must be murica hater reee!!!!111".

The Atheist · 13th January 2021, 05:18 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

WHich you would just love, given your hatred for the United States.

No irony in the fact that only one of us has been talking about gunnin' up.

And it wasn't me.

smartcooky · 13th January 2021, 06:11 PM

Originally Posted by AnonyMoose

He was. But other denizens of this forum starting pointing their fingers at him and laughing saying he was being hyperbolic and overly dramatic. So now he's swinging in the complete opposite direction in an attempt to get back in with the cool kids of ISF. to realize that he might have had a point

FTFY

PhantomWolf · 14th January 2021, 03:10 AM

Originally Posted by smartcooky

FTFY

Except that he's never really had a point. The odds of a new American civil war is very low, there simply isn't a command and control structure of any power within the Trumpkin and Alt-Right ranks.

Civil Wars are again two governments, the Legitimate one, and the pretender who wants to overthrow them. The Trumpkins and Alt-Right don't have that.

On top of that, political divides are very different than in the 1800's. No State is truly a Blue State or a Red State and so it makes it harder to divide along State Lines, even if the State Legislatures wanted to do so, which they don't.

Finally. Most Trumpers would just run away when the bullets started coming back at them. The few that don't will either end up dead or arrested after wandering through an open door and finding themselves suddenly in a federal building.

ponderingturtle · 14th January 2021, 03:55 AM

Originally Posted by PhantomWolf

Except that he's never really had a point. The odds of a new American civil war is very low, there simply isn't a command and control structure of any power within the Trumpkin and Alt-Right ranks.

Civil Wars are again two governments, the Legitimate one, and the pretender who wants to overthrow them. The Trumpkins and Alt-Right don't have that.

That seems a less than accurate definition for many modern "civil wars". An active insurgency seems to be enough in many cases.

Puppycow · 14th January 2021, 04:01 AM

Civil unrest is probably a more accurate prediction, and one could say that we have already reached that point.

Horatius · 14th January 2021, 05:44 AM

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Civil unrest is probably a more accurate prediction, and one could say that we have already reached that point.

But as has been noted many times, the US has a hell of a lot of guns in the hands of a hell of a lot of people, more than most other countries. "Civil unrest" in the US is likely to involve a lot fewer rock-throwers and a lot more gun battles.

Originally Posted by PhantomWolf

Finally. Most Trumpers would just run away when the bullets started coming back at them. The few that don't will either end up dead or arrested after wandering through an open door and finding themselves suddenly in a federal building.

Oh, sure, most of them will run when the shooting starts. But that's true of any group of people.

But the one who don't run will quite quickly learn the lessons every other group of newbies learn on the way to becoming veterans. If they survive the lesson, they could be a real problem.

PhantomWolf · 14th January 2021, 01:48 PM

Originally Posted by ponderingturtle

That seems a less than accurate definition for many modern "civil wars". An active insurgency seems to be enough in many cases.

Insurgencies aren't civil wars. I'd also be interested to know which modern civil wars don't fit the Government Forces vs one of more Quasi-Government forces model, or at least one or more Quasi-Government forces fighting over a failed State.

As to an active insurgency, these work best in failed states where there is little or weak Governmental controls. An insurgency against the modern US isn't going to last that long before the members are either dead or in jail.

PhantomWolf · 14th January 2021, 01:53 PM

Originally Posted by Horatius

But the one who don't run will quite quickly learn the lessons every other group of newbies learn on the way to becoming veterans. If they survive the lesson, they could be a real problem.

Not really. They don't have the firepower to take on a descent Police force, let alone the NG or US Military forces. It's also not as if they can retreat to a safe controlled area outside the Police/Military's reach either and with surveillance and such that the US has these days, they'd find it very hard to hide their operations on anything more than a small scale.

ponderingturtle · 14th January 2021, 01:55 PM

Originally Posted by PhantomWolf

Not really. They don't have the firepower to take on a descent Police force, let alone the NG or US Military forces. It's also not as if they can retreat to a safe controlled area outside the Police/Military's reach either and with surveillance and such that the US has these days, they'd find it very hard to hide their operations on anything more than a small scale.

Except all the police and military personel involved in the storming of the capital. But that is too splitting hairs like claiming the US has ever been at war since 1945. No those are all conflicts other than war period. Wars get declared.

PhantomWolf · 14th January 2021, 02:42 PM

Originally Posted by ponderingturtle

Except all the police and military personel involved in the storming of the capital.

To my knowledge, there was only one active military person in that group and I haven't heard of any police being involved. A bunch of ex-military were there, but they wouldn't have the command structure or supply chains to do a lot even if they wanted to.

Lerxst · 14th January 2021, 03:51 PM

Originally Posted by PhantomWolf

To my knowledge, there was only one active military person in that group and I haven't heard of any police being involved. A bunch of ex-military were there, but they wouldn't have the command structure or supply chains to do a lot even if they wanted to.

Let's see...retired USAF Lt Col Larry Brock, former West Virginia State Legislator Derrick Evans (resigned after the riot), and two off-duty police officers from Virginia, Jacob Fracker and Thomas Robertson. This is just what we can confirm now from the arrests that have been made. It is likely there will be many more active duty military and law enforcement that are known to be involved once the investigation is finished.

I do agree though that this seemed poorly planned and even more poorly executed. They thought Trump would be there and send in his personal guard, or something.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/10/u...l-arrests.html

PhantomWolf · 14th January 2021, 10:00 PM

Originally Posted by Lerxst

Let's see...retired USAF Lt Col Larry Brock, former West Virginia State Legislator Derrick Evans (resigned after the riot), and two off-duty police officers from Virginia, Jacob Fracker and Thomas Robertson. This is just what we can confirm now from the arrests that have been made. It is likely there will be many more active duty military and law enforcement that are known to be involved once the investigation is finished.

I do agree though that this seemed poorly planned and even more poorly executed. They thought Trump would be there and send in his personal guard, or something.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/10/u...l-arrests.html

I have since found another as well, now ex-officer Fam of Houston, however, even with a handful of these people in their ranks, an all-out insurgency would not last that long. The US is far from the failed state of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, or Ethiopia. It's not even close to Ukraine, the Balkans, or Kosovo.

ChristianProgressive · 14th January 2021, 10:23 PM

Originally Posted by PhantomWolf

Except that he's never really had a point. The odds of a new American civil war is very low, there simply isn't a command and control structure of any power within the Trumpkin and Alt-Right ranks.

Civil Wars are again two governments, the Legitimate one, and the pretender who wants to overthrow them. The Trumpkins and Alt-Right don't have that.

On top of that, political divides are very different than in the 1800's. No State is truly a Blue State or a Red State and so it makes it harder to divide along State Lines, even if the State Legislatures wanted to do so, which they don't.

Finally. Most Trumpers would just run away when the bullets started coming back at them. The few that don't will either end up dead or arrested after wandering through an open door and finding themselves suddenly in a federal building.

There likely won't be a full-on formal Civil War with nation-states and uniformed armies, and such, but it is almost certain there will be an extended armed insurrection along the lines of the Troubles in Ireland.

The Atheist · 14th January 2021, 11:49 PM

Originally Posted by ChristianProgressive

There likely won't be a full-on formal Civil War with nation-states and uniformed armies, and such, but it is almost certain there will be an extended armed insurrection along the lines of the Troubles in Ireland.

I think that idea is way overselling their future.

The IRA and Sinn Fein were organised and well-drilled groups with centuries of history behind them. They were used to operating in secret and had passionate, generational hatred for the English.

Trumpists are less than a rabble - a bunch of mostly old rednecks and losers who boast on Facebook and who could not organise the proverbial screw in a brothel.

They will stay online and spew hate, but take no action.

The Great Zaganza · 14th January 2021, 11:55 PM

Disagree.

It is clear that plenty in the GOP are hoping to become the political arm of the Terror Team Trump purely for power.

The Atheist · 15th January 2021, 12:53 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

Disagree.

It is clear that plenty in the GOP are hoping to become the political arm of the Terror Team Trump purely for power.

Who? Where's the organisation?

The Proud Babies? Utterly hopeless filth. Militias? How's Cliven Bundy these days?

Where is the actual threat?

The Great Zaganza · 15th January 2021, 01:12 AM

there is plenty of threat, as the FBI has told us for years.

And the Q/MAGA movement has shown how desperate these folks are to bent their knees to an authoritarian.

in the past, when the NRA wanted to flex their muscle, they told their members to call their Representatives en masse.

After Jan 6th, if you are against their Chosen Republican, they will show up with guns near their house and sent you death threats.

The Atheist · 15th January 2021, 02:10 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

After Jan 6th, if you are against their Chosen Republican, they will show up with guns near their house and sent you death threats.

You might have forgotten, but shooting politicians in USA is something of a national sport.

Two cops died at the Capitol. Neither were shot.

That's 40% of the incredibly low school shooting number for 2020, or a mere 10% of the also-low number for 2019. It's insignificant in light of cops shooting and killing 1000 people a year in USA.

Not much of an armed insurrection, really.

They talk a lot, but are empty vessels. I think you're all jumping at shadows - the Bundy standoff was more dangerous than the Putzch.

The Great Zaganza · 15th January 2021, 02:25 AM

I'm not worried about armed Milita taking over towns.
I'm worried about them intimidating politicians, the police and social activists.

The Don · 15th January 2021, 02:39 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

I'm not worried about armed Milita taking over towns.
I'm worried about them intimidating politicians, the police and social activists.

IMO this is a reasonable concern, not least because GOP representatives are already on record saying that some of their colleagues voted in a specific way out of fear for their own, or their family's safety.

The position w.r.t. the police is muddier, not least because a proportion of them seem to be actively supporting the Militias.

PhantomWolf · 15th January 2021, 05:25 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I think that idea is way overselling their future.

The IRA and Sinn Fein were organised and well-drilled groups with centuries of history behind them. They were used to operating in secret and had passionate, generational hatred for the English.

Trumpists are less than a rabble - a bunch of mostly old rednecks and losers who boast on Facebook and who could not organise the proverbial screw in a brothel.

They will stay online and spew hate, but take no action.

Not to mention that the likes of the IRA had a lot of foreign support, supplies, and financing from Ireland and the USA.

SuburbanTurkey · 15th January 2021, 05:42 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I think that idea is way overselling their future.

The IRA and Sinn Fein were organised and well-drilled groups with centuries of history behind them. They were used to operating in secret and had passionate, generational hatred for the English.

Trumpists are less than a rabble - a bunch of mostly old rednecks and losers who boast on Facebook and who could not organise the proverbial screw in a brothel.

They will stay online and spew hate, but take no action.

The IRA also had botched operations that ended with many of their members dead or in jail.

Failed coup attempts are part of the process. Sometimes successful coups follow. The reactionary right in this country will learn from this experience.

It's important for those of us opposed to a fascist united states to also learn from this experience. Throwing the invaders under the jail is only the tip of the iceberg. More action is needed.

Edit: This comment is not meant to make a moral comparison between the IRA and MAGA freaks. Strictly speaking in terms of tactics and effectiveness.

The Great Zaganza · 15th January 2021, 05:44 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

...
The position w.r.t. the police is muddier, not least because a proportion of them seem to be actively supporting the Militias.

... which IMO put even more pressure on the cops who are torn between supporting Democracy and towing the Thin Blue Line.

Nessie · 15th January 2021, 05:48 AM

I voted that the Civil War II is imminent, as in I believe it has already got going with BLM riots and Trump inspired disturbances, such as clearing people and press so he could walk to a church and the Capitol riot.

I think the Civil War II is going to be a low level war between the authorities and those who feel disenfranchised from society. Ironically BLM and Trump supporters could find themselves on the same side, fighting the "liberal elite".

Nessie · 15th January 2021, 05:53 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

I'm not worried about armed Milita taking over towns.
I'm worried about them intimidating politicians, the police and social activists.

Agreed. The US Civil War II will be like the Troubles in NI. There will be a rough split into sides, but many factions, none strong enough to actually take over, but some who can cause a lot of damage and disruption.

Hopefully no one in the UK will fund any side, as many in the US did during the Troubles. At least Americans can be reassured that it is highly unlikely anyone in the UK will be assisting in providing any side in the US with weapons.

Lerxst · 15th January 2021, 07:03 AM

What I worry about is another Tim McVeigh. He didn't even need to falsely believe that an election was stolen to make a truck bomb and blow up a federal building.

Nessie · 15th January 2021, 08:24 AM

Originally Posted by Lerxst

What I worry about is another Tim McVeigh. He didn't even need to falsely believe that an election was stolen to make a truck bomb and blow up a federal building.

In Northern Ireland, heavily armed civilians trying to kill each other and rioting over a religious and societal divide, were referred to as The Troubles and regarded as a low level civil war.

The USA needs to wake up the same has been going on in the USA, over a racial and societal divide and it is gathering pace and under Trump has grown to be a low level civil war.

American Civil War II is coming soon, perhaps even soon after this election.	16	20.25%
American Civil War II is coming sometime in the next few years.	10	12.66%
American Civil War II is coming in the foreseeable future, but not for at least a decade or so..	4	5.06%
American Civil War II is not coming anytime in the foreseeable future.	30	37.97%
American Civil War II is never going to happen.	9	11.39%
American Civil War II is coming soon to Netflix, starring Dwayne Johnson!	13	16.46%
Planet X Civil War XXXVII is coming soon!	9	11.39%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 79. You may not vote on this poll

24th September 2020, 06:18 AM	#161
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,296	Originally Posted by carlosy There are two important answers missing in the poll: - When is it going to end? and - Who is going to win? I can answer the second one: China and Russia.
	__________________ Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam.

25th September 2020, 04:57 AM	#162
Steve Philosopher Join Date: May 2005 Location: Sydney Nova Scotia Posts: 8,007	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza I can answer the second one: China and Russia. That is already happening as Trump alienates many former allies and friendly countries. It will continue without need of a physical American civil war.
	__________________ Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!"

25th September 2020, 05:44 AM	#164
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,296	we get smarter by learning from our mistakes. So logically, we should make as many mistakes as possible.
	__________________ Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam.

25th September 2020, 05:48 AM	#165
Steve Philosopher Join Date: May 2005 Location: Sydney Nova Scotia Posts: 8,007	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza we get smarter by learning from our mistakes. So logically, we should make as many mistakes as possible. You are right on track. Still waiting to see the "getting smarter" part.
	__________________ Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!"

25th September 2020, 05:16 AM	#163
Crazy Chainsaw Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,465	I favor just blowing up the whole universe and starting over the Civil War has been going on for years in Silence now it's just out in the open.https://www.pbs.org/necwshour/nation...aw-enforcement There was never any Intelligent life in this Universe anyway!

25th September 2020, 06:58 AM	#166
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Hong Kong Posts: 48,530	Originally Posted by Crazy Chainsaw I favor just blowing up the whole universe and starting over the Civil War has been going on for years in Silence now it's just out in the open.https://www.pbs.org/necwshour/nation...aw-enforcement Heh. I was about to say that as long as NPR and PBS are doing business as usual, we probably aren't anywhere near a civil war. But then I realized your PBS link returns "page not found". I guess I better start prepping!

10th November 2020, 05:10 PM	#167
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,867	Trump fires Espiner. Odds on Civil War 2.0 shorten.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

13th January 2021, 10:42 AM	#168
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,867	ABC (Australia's public/government media network): This model forecast the US's current unrest a decade ago. It now says 'civil war'
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

13th January 2021, 10:50 AM	#169
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 49,876	Originally Posted by The Atheist ABC (Australia's public/government media network): This model forecast the US's current unrest a decade ago. It now says 'civil war' WHich you would just love, given your hatred for the United States.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

13th January 2021, 12:17 PM	#170
Steve Philosopher Join Date: May 2005 Location: Sydney Nova Scotia Posts: 8,007	Originally Posted by dudalb WHich you would just love, given your hatred for the United States. Well, these days it sure isn"t the type of country most sane people would choose to live in.
	__________________ Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!"

13th January 2021, 01:00 PM	#171
PhantomWolf Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 20,097	Originally Posted by dudalb WHich you would just love, given your hatred for the United States. Haven't you been predicting a new civil war for at least the last year?
	__________________ It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871)

13th January 2021, 04:36 PM	#172
AnonyMoose Muse Join Date: May 2018 Location: Land of the Frozen Chosen Posts: 993	Originally Posted by PhantomWolf Haven't you been predicting a new civil war for at least the last year? He was. But other denizens of this forum starting pointing their fingers at him and laughing saying he was being hyperbolic and overly dramatic. So now he's swinging in the complete opposite direction in an attempt to get back in with the cool kids of ISF.
	__________________ "Some mornings it's just not worth chewing through the leather straps." ~ Emo Phillips

13th January 2021, 04:52 PM	#173
Mader Levap Graduate Poster Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 1,496	Originally Posted by AnonyMoose He was. But other denizens of this forum starting pointing their fingers at him and laughing saying he was being hyperbolic and overly dramatic. So now he's swinging in the complete opposite direction in an attempt to get back in with the cool kids of ISF. I got impression it is more like "only I can predict doom of USA, anyone else doing same must be murica hater reee!!!!111".
	__________________ Sanity is overrated. / Voting for Republicans is morally equivalent to voting for Nazis in early 30's. Last edited by Mader Levap; 13th January 2021 at 04:55 PM.

13th January 2021, 05:18 PM	#174
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,867	Originally Posted by dudalb WHich you would just love, given your hatred for the United States. No irony in the fact that only one of us has been talking about gunnin' up. And it wasn't me.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

13th January 2021, 06:11 PM	#175
smartcooky Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Nelson, New Zealand Posts: 16,423	Originally Posted by AnonyMoose He was. But other denizens of this forum starting pointing their fingers at him and laughing saying he was being hyperbolic and overly dramatic. So now he's swinging in the complete opposite direction in an attempt to get back in with the cool kids of ISF. to realize that he might have had a point FTFY
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14th January 2021, 03:10 AM	#176
PhantomWolf Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 20,097	Originally Posted by smartcooky FTFY Except that he's never really had a point. The odds of a new American civil war is very low, there simply isn't a command and control structure of any power within the Trumpkin and Alt-Right ranks. Civil Wars are again two governments, the Legitimate one, and the pretender who wants to overthrow them. The Trumpkins and Alt-Right don't have that. On top of that, political divides are very different than in the 1800's. No State is truly a Blue State or a Red State and so it makes it harder to divide along State Lines, even if the State Legislatures wanted to do so, which they don't. Finally. Most Trumpers would just run away when the bullets started coming back at them. The few that don't will either end up dead or arrested after wandering through an open door and finding themselves suddenly in a federal building.
	__________________ It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871)

14th January 2021, 03:55 AM	#177
ponderingturtle Orthogonal Vector Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 50,126	Originally Posted by PhantomWolf Except that he's never really had a point. The odds of a new American civil war is very low, there simply isn't a command and control structure of any power within the Trumpkin and Alt-Right ranks. Civil Wars are again two governments, the Legitimate one, and the pretender who wants to overthrow them. The Trumpkins and Alt-Right don't have that. That seems a less than accurate definition for many modern "civil wars". An active insurgency seems to be enough in many cases.
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14th January 2021, 04:01 AM	#178
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Yokohama, Japan Posts: 25,584	Civil unrest is probably a more accurate prediction, and one could say that we have already reached that point.
	__________________ A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare

14th January 2021, 05:44 AM	#179
Horatius NWO Kitty Wrangler Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 28,895	Originally Posted by Puppycow Civil unrest is probably a more accurate prediction, and one could say that we have already reached that point. But as has been noted many times, the US has a hell of a lot of guns in the hands of a hell of a lot of people, more than most other countries. "Civil unrest" in the US is likely to involve a lot fewer rock-throwers and a lot more gun battles. Originally Posted by PhantomWolf Finally. Most Trumpers would just run away when the bullets started coming back at them. The few that don't will either end up dead or arrested after wandering through an open door and finding themselves suddenly in a federal building. Oh, sure, most of them will run when the shooting starts. But that's true of any group of people. But the one who don't run will quite quickly learn the lessons every other group of newbies learn on the way to becoming veterans. If they survive the lesson, they could be a real problem.
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14th January 2021, 01:48 PM	#180
PhantomWolf Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 20,097	Originally Posted by ponderingturtle That seems a less than accurate definition for many modern "civil wars". An active insurgency seems to be enough in many cases. Insurgencies aren't civil wars. I'd also be interested to know which modern civil wars don't fit the Government Forces vs one of more Quasi-Government forces model, or at least one or more Quasi-Government forces fighting over a failed State. As to an active insurgency, these work best in failed states where there is little or weak Governmental controls. An insurgency against the modern US isn't going to last that long before the members are either dead or in jail.
	__________________ It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871)

14th January 2021, 01:53 PM	#181
PhantomWolf Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 20,097	Originally Posted by Horatius But the one who don't run will quite quickly learn the lessons every other group of newbies learn on the way to becoming veterans. If they survive the lesson, they could be a real problem. Not really. They don't have the firepower to take on a descent Police force, let alone the NG or US Military forces. It's also not as if they can retreat to a safe controlled area outside the Police/Military's reach either and with surveillance and such that the US has these days, they'd find it very hard to hide their operations on anything more than a small scale.
	__________________ It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871)

14th January 2021, 01:55 PM	#182
ponderingturtle Orthogonal Vector Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 50,126	Originally Posted by PhantomWolf Not really. They don't have the firepower to take on a descent Police force, let alone the NG or US Military forces. It's also not as if they can retreat to a safe controlled area outside the Police/Military's reach either and with surveillance and such that the US has these days, they'd find it very hard to hide their operations on anything more than a small scale. Except all the police and military personel involved in the storming of the capital. But that is too splitting hairs like claiming the US has ever been at war since 1945. No those are all conflicts other than war period. Wars get declared.
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14th January 2021, 02:42 PM	#183
PhantomWolf Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 20,097	Originally Posted by ponderingturtle Except all the police and military personel involved in the storming of the capital. To my knowledge, there was only one active military person in that group and I haven't heard of any police being involved. A bunch of ex-military were there, but they wouldn't have the command structure or supply chains to do a lot even if they wanted to.
	__________________ It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871)

14th January 2021, 03:51 PM	#184
Lerxst Muse Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: Big D Posts: 668	Originally Posted by PhantomWolf To my knowledge, there was only one active military person in that group and I haven't heard of any police being involved. A bunch of ex-military were there, but they wouldn't have the command structure or supply chains to do a lot even if they wanted to. Let's see...retired USAF Lt Col Larry Brock, former West Virginia State Legislator Derrick Evans (resigned after the riot), and two off-duty police officers from Virginia, Jacob Fracker and Thomas Robertson. This is just what we can confirm now from the arrests that have been made. It is likely there will be many more active duty military and law enforcement that are known to be involved once the investigation is finished. I do agree though that this seemed poorly planned and even more poorly executed. They thought Trump would be there and send in his personal guard, or something. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/10/u...l-arrests.html

14th January 2021, 10:00 PM	#185
PhantomWolf Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 20,097	Originally Posted by Lerxst Let's see...retired USAF Lt Col Larry Brock, former West Virginia State Legislator Derrick Evans (resigned after the riot), and two off-duty police officers from Virginia, Jacob Fracker and Thomas Robertson. This is just what we can confirm now from the arrests that have been made. It is likely there will be many more active duty military and law enforcement that are known to be involved once the investigation is finished. I do agree though that this seemed poorly planned and even more poorly executed. They thought Trump would be there and send in his personal guard, or something. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/10/u...l-arrests.html I have since found another as well, now ex-officer Fam of Houston, however, even with a handful of these people in their ranks, an all-out insurgency would not last that long. The US is far from the failed state of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, or Ethiopia. It's not even close to Ukraine, the Balkans, or Kosovo.
	__________________ It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871)

14th January 2021, 10:23 PM	#186
ChristianProgressive Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 2,804	Originally Posted by PhantomWolf Except that he's never really had a point. The odds of a new American civil war is very low, there simply isn't a command and control structure of any power within the Trumpkin and Alt-Right ranks. Civil Wars are again two governments, the Legitimate one, and the pretender who wants to overthrow them. The Trumpkins and Alt-Right don't have that. On top of that, political divides are very different than in the 1800's. No State is truly a Blue State or a Red State and so it makes it harder to divide along State Lines, even if the State Legislatures wanted to do so, which they don't. Finally. Most Trumpers would just run away when the bullets started coming back at them. The few that don't will either end up dead or arrested after wandering through an open door and finding themselves suddenly in a federal building. There likely won't be a full-on formal Civil War with nation-states and uniformed armies, and such, but it is almost certain there will be an extended armed insurrection along the lines of the Troubles in Ireland.
	__________________ "As it was in the days of Noah, so will it be at the coming of the Son of Man." - Matthew 24:37 "And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh." - Luke 21:28

14th January 2021, 11:49 PM	#187
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,867	Originally Posted by ChristianProgressive There likely won't be a full-on formal Civil War with nation-states and uniformed armies, and such, but it is almost certain there will be an extended armed insurrection along the lines of the Troubles in Ireland. I think that idea is way overselling their future. The IRA and Sinn Fein were organised and well-drilled groups with centuries of history behind them. They were used to operating in secret and had passionate, generational hatred for the English. Trumpists are less than a rabble - a bunch of mostly old rednecks and losers who boast on Facebook and who could not organise the proverbial screw in a brothel. They will stay online and spew hate, but take no action.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

14th January 2021, 11:55 PM	#188
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,296	Disagree. It is clear that plenty in the GOP are hoping to become the political arm of the Terror Team Trump purely for power.
	__________________ Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam.

15th January 2021, 12:53 AM	#189
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,867	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza Disagree. It is clear that plenty in the GOP are hoping to become the political arm of the Terror Team Trump purely for power. Who? Where's the organisation? The Proud Babies? Utterly hopeless filth. Militias? How's Cliven Bundy these days? Where is the actual threat?
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

15th January 2021, 01:12 AM	#190
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,296	there is plenty of threat, as the FBI has told us for years. And the Q/MAGA movement has shown how desperate these folks are to bent their knees to an authoritarian. in the past, when the NRA wanted to flex their muscle, they told their members to call their Representatives en masse. After Jan 6th, if you are against their Chosen Republican, they will show up with guns near their house and sent you death threats.
	__________________ Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam.

15th January 2021, 02:10 AM	#191
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,867	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza After Jan 6th, if you are against their Chosen Republican, they will show up with guns near their house and sent you death threats. You might have forgotten, but shooting politicians in USA is something of a national sport. Two cops died at the Capitol. Neither were shot. That's 40% of the incredibly low school shooting number for 2020, or a mere 10% of the also-low number for 2019. It's insignificant in light of cops shooting and killing 1000 people a year in USA. Not much of an armed insurrection, really. They talk a lot, but are empty vessels. I think you're all jumping at shadows - the Bundy standoff was more dangerous than the Putzch.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

15th January 2021, 02:25 AM	#192
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,296	I'm not worried about armed Milita taking over towns. I'm worried about them intimidating politicians, the police and social activists.
	__________________ Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam.

15th January 2021, 02:39 AM	#193
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 30,965	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza I'm not worried about armed Milita taking over towns. I'm worried about them intimidating politicians, the police and social activists. IMO this is a reasonable concern, not least because GOP representatives are already on record saying that some of their colleagues voted in a specific way out of fear for their own, or their family's safety. The position w.r.t. the police is muddier, not least because a proportion of them seem to be actively supporting the Militias.

15th January 2021, 05:25 AM	#194
PhantomWolf Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 20,097	Originally Posted by The Atheist I think that idea is way overselling their future. The IRA and Sinn Fein were organised and well-drilled groups with centuries of history behind them. They were used to operating in secret and had passionate, generational hatred for the English. Trumpists are less than a rabble - a bunch of mostly old rednecks and losers who boast on Facebook and who could not organise the proverbial screw in a brothel. They will stay online and spew hate, but take no action. Not to mention that the likes of the IRA had a lot of foreign support, supplies, and financing from Ireland and the USA.
	__________________ It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871)