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Old 9th January 2021, 04:13 PM   #1
Samson
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Bookies have Trump favourite for 2024 Nomination

I find this curious and implausible, but there it is. As of right now Ladbrokes have him at 4 to 1 and Pence second line at 8 to 1 for the 2024 republican nomination. I know there is persistent talk of another go, but these figures are stark and in my view represent an impossible scenario.
This thread may be of lingering interest to watch over the years as he becomes irrelevant.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/p...70/all-markets
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Old 9th January 2021, 04:22 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I find this curious and implausible, but there it is. As of right now Ladbrokes have him at 4 to 1 and Pence second line at 8 to 1 for the 2024 republican nomination. I know there is persistent talk of another go, but these figures are stark and in my view represent an impossible scenario.
This thread may be of lingering interest to watch over the years as he becomes irrelevant.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/p...70/all-markets
There was a time I think it was quite possible, but that ship has not only sailed, it was quickly sunk by a self inflicted torpedo launched with no guidance system.
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Old 9th January 2021, 04:27 PM   #3
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Ladbrooks needs to recalulate after Wendesday.
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Old 9th January 2021, 05:45 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Ladbrooks needs to recalulate after Wendesday.
Indeed they do. Pence's chances are far less than that now, the traitor!
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Old 9th January 2021, 09:20 PM   #5
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Odds are based upon the money coming in on bets. They're not a real assessment of their actual chances. This merely says that more money is being bet on Trump than any other candidate. Odds are fluid and will change as betting patterns change.
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Old 9th January 2021, 09:24 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
Odds are based upon the money coming in on bets. They're not a real assessment of their actual chances. This merely says that more money is being bet on Trump than any other candidate. Odds are fluid and will change as betting patterns change.
And Trumpublicans are stupid enough to place large bets as a show of loyalty, I suspect.

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Old 9th January 2021, 09:59 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
There was a time I think it was quite possible, but that ship has not only sailed, it was quickly sunk by a self inflicted torpedo launched with no guidance system.
Any other time, I'd agree, but his base is SOLID behind him. If he isn't impeached, thus rendering him inelligable, or isn't arrested by SDNY on a Felony, or phsically deteriorate to the point he has to be institutionalized, he might well run and have strong chance of winning.
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Old 9th January 2021, 10:17 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
Odds are based upon the money coming in on bets. They're not a real assessment of their actual chances. This merely says that more money is being bet on Trump than any other candidate. Odds are fluid and will change as betting patterns change.
Beat me to it. The only time speculative odds are publicised is when the book is opened, and after that the odds follow the money.

Some professional punters claim to win over time by placing bets against very popular teams as those odds are distorted by the fan factor.
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Old 9th January 2021, 10:38 PM   #9
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people have made good money betting against delusional Trump supporters.
no reason to stop now.
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Old 9th January 2021, 11:48 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Bookies have Trump favourite for 2024 Nomination
Well, a few things to keep in mind:

- If you have a large number of candidates in the primary, due to vote splitting/distribution a candidate does not need to get anywhere near a majority of votes to take an early lead
- Trump did do very well in the past election, and had strong support among the republican base.
- Even after last Wednesday's terrorist acts, a large number of republicans still support Trump, and think the terrorism was acceptable. Another poll actually showed more Republicans blamed Biden than Trump.

So, while Trump would be unlikely to win the general election (where he would have to appeal to moderates), its not out of the realm of possibility that he might win the republican primaries.
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Old 10th January 2021, 02:50 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
And Trumpublicans are stupid enough to place large bets as a show of loyalty, I suspect.

Dave
This maybe the key to this anomaly, a real world explanation, but here is the thing.
I would take those bets to the limit of my worldly assets because I think there is 0.00000% chance (roughly) that he gets the nomination.
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Old 10th January 2021, 03:01 AM   #12
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the season hasnít started yet
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Old 10th January 2021, 04:51 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by ChristianProgressive View Post
Any other time, I'd agree, but his base is SOLID behind him. If he isn't impeached, thus rendering him inelligable, or isn't arrested by SDNY on a Felony, or phsically deteriorate to the point he has to be institutionalized, he might well run and have strong chance of winning.
Hey the good news is that if he does run I can think of nothing else that would do more to galvanize the Democratic vote to turn out. Plus if we're lucky he opens a split in the Republican party, or even better he denounces the Republicans as having betrayed him and runs as an independent.
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Old 10th January 2021, 05:13 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
There was a time I think it was quite possible, but that ship has not only sailed, it was quickly sunk by a self inflicted torpedo launched with no guidance system.
Yeah, Trump himself has assured he can't run for president in 2024. Even if he's not prosecuted, and still able to ace a bigly difficult dementia test in 2024, I doubt the GOP would let him back in. If he runs as an independent, there is no way the people would stand for him becoming POTUS again. The 2021 coup attempt would be nothing compared to the reaction from the liberals if Trump won.
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Old 10th January 2021, 05:14 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Another poll actually showed more Republicans blamed Biden than Trump.
Because "the election was rigged", no doubt. Disgusting .

At least it's all out in daylight now. The police needs reform, authoritarianism needs tackling, racism needs fighting, the postfact world needs countering. Trump can't put the genie back in the bottle.
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Last edited by Safe-Keeper; 10th January 2021 at 05:15 AM.
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Old 10th January 2021, 06:43 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
Yeah, Trump himself has assured he can't run for president in 2024. Even if he's not prosecuted, and still able to ace a bigly difficult dementia test in 2024, I doubt the GOP would let him back in. If he runs as an independent, there is no way the people would stand for him becoming POTUS again. The 2021 coup attempt would be nothing compared to the reaction from the liberals if Trump won.
Even if Trump was to somehow win the Republican 2024 nomination, I think there's enough republicans who would refuse to vote for him in the general election, it would neuter his chances of winning. Anecdotal, I know, but my FiL is a long time blue-collar Republican. His family has always voted republican, as has he. He voted for Trump in the election (under some very tenuous reasoning about Biden going to quickly resign so Harris will be president). Now he's calling for Trump to resign or be impeached and to never run for office again. I think there's a very real split in the party forming over this.
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Old 10th January 2021, 11:42 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
Yeah, Trump himself has assured he can't run for president in 2024. Even if he's not prosecuted, and still able to ace a bigly difficult dementia test in 2024, I doubt the GOP would let him back in.
How exactly would the GOP be able to keep him out of the race though? It's sort of a democratic thing, and supposedly the party leaders don't have that much control.

They could throw up roadblocks (like limits on the number of debate participants, or other candidates dropping out and endorsing a single non-trump candidate) but there is no guarantee that would keep trump out.

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Old 10th January 2021, 11:47 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I find this curious and implausible, but there it is. As of right now Ladbrokes have him at 4 to 1 and Pence second line at 8 to 1 for the 2024 republican nomination. I know there is persistent talk of another go, but these figures are stark and in my view represent an impossible scenario.
This thread may be of lingering interest to watch over the years as he becomes irrelevant.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/p...70/all-markets
Bookies don't really evaluate likelihoods. Their odds mainly reflect what people are betting on. People right now betting on Trumps chances in 2024 are either daft or pure gamblers, so you can't infer anything about reality from this.

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Old 10th January 2021, 01:32 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
How exactly would the GOP be able to keep him out of the race though? It's sort of a democratic thing, and supposedly the party leaders don't have that much control.

They could throw up roadblocks (like limits on the number of debate participants, or other candidates dropping out and endorsing a single non-trump candidate) but there is no guarantee that would keep trump out.

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I expect he's going to be rendered inert soon enough. Since he clearly lacks the good sence to get out while the getting's good (Or he'd have resigned when the election was called, maybe right after issuing a well constructed string of pardons) he's most likely going to hang around long enough to see his fat ass impeached a second time, with a ban on running for office ever again, thrown in for good measure.
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Last edited by Mike!; 10th January 2021 at 01:33 PM.
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Old 10th January 2021, 09:50 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
Because "the election was rigged", no doubt. Disgusting .

At least it's all out in daylight now. The police needs reform, authoritarianism needs tackling, racism needs fighting, the postfact world needs countering. Trump can't put the genie back in the bottle.
By the same token, it remains to be seen if the Left can stand up to any of that in an effective way.
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Old 10th January 2021, 11:29 PM   #21
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the longer people believe that Trump will win in 2024, the harder it will be for the GOP to field a credible challenger.
I'm all for it.
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Old 10th January 2021, 11:43 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Ladbrooks needs to recalulate after Wendesday.
Or they may find the need for a renaming to Brokelads.
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:00 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Ladbrooks needs to recalulate after Wendesday.
Despite the looming effectiveness of the impeachment process, the odds stay the same at 4 to 1. Ladbrokes will clean up on this if anyone is actually taking the bet.
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:17 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Despite the looming effectiveness of the impeachment process, the odds stay the same at 4 to 1. Ladbrokes will clean up on this if anyone is actually taking the bet.
I'm assuming that they not letting people bet the other side at these odds?



(Although that might still be a bad bet seeing that it entails letting Ladbrokes hold the money for 3.5 years. Getting a 25% return (1-4 odds) over that time frame isn't that great of an investment even if it were a lock...)
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:44 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
I'm assuming that they not letting people bet the other side at these odds?



(Although that might still be a bad bet seeing that it entails letting Ladbrokes hold the money for 3.5 years. Getting a 25% return (1-4 odds) over that time frame isn't that great of an investment even if it were a lock...)
Exactly, and I wrote a similar post till I realised this mathematical scenario still favoured the house.
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:59 PM   #26
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4-1 on Trump is a terrible bet. However...

I think 8-1 on Pence is way worse. I can dream up scenarios where Trump winds up with the nomination. I can't come up with any remotely plausible scenario where Pence gets on the ticket seeing the only people that he could have called his base just wanted to hang him on the Capitol lawn. He's probably not the most hated man in America, but he might be the most widely disliked.
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