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Old Today, 10:42 AM   #2361
Giordano
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Stats question- Between nasals and serology guesstimates, an we extrapolate how many people in America have Covid RIGHT NOW?

Should we use NY, or use a state that has the mean population density?
May not make a big difference. NYís new cases are way down and only slightly lower on a per capita basis than the USA as a whole.

Also of course there have been more cases in more densely populated areas. But this is where more people live, duh. So one canít simply dismiss them as irrelevant.
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Old Today, 11:04 AM   #2362
Skeptic Ginger
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
Read my post again.

There is evidence that it is useful for treating upper respiratory-tract infection and that vD deficiency has been shown to increase the risk of upper respiratory tract infections and tuberculosis.
That is why it is being investigated as potential treatment for COVID-19.
It's not even of interest! Has it been established as a treatment for cytokine storm?

Are doctors not including vitamin D levels when patients are admitted to the hospital for any respiratory infection? It should be in the basic admission screen and unless we are talking limited medical resources like maybe a third world country, I don't see why it wouldn't be.

This is another one of those 'research by social media science' projects. Researchers hoping to find the magic bullet without going through the hard work of proving the underlying premises first.

Step one: find out which doctors/hospitals/countries include/don't include vitamin D levels in the admission work up. Maybe the various NHS don't include it. Maybe only Kaiser patients are getting routine vitamin D levels. Wouldn't be hard to find out.

Step two, there was a correlation found between CRP and vitamin D levels A DECADE AGO!!! Did anything come of it? It's not like treatments for a cytokine storm haven't been searched for.

But no, why do actual background research when it's so easy to wishfully think these researchers were going to find a miracle cure and get a Nobel Prize.
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Old Today, 12:10 PM   #2363
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Did you see the studies?
I linked to it and quoted from it.


Quote:
It appears that we do know it now. It's no surprise it's taken some time to filter through, but it reads to me that not being deficient in vitamin D is far superior to taking Remdesivir.
Where in the paper did you see this exactly? Are we talking about different studies?


Quote:
Nothing magical about it. All the studies I see are thoroughly scientific.
And the results in that study were thoroughly speculative and weakly supported if that.


Quote:
I noted earlier that I have annual blood tests but I've never seen any results for vitamin D on the list.
CBC and metabolic screen, standard annual physical tests. Upon review I see vitamin D tests are done when indicated because there's not enough evidence taking supplements makes a difference.

However, on the NHS UK web site:on vitamin D it says the following:
Quote:
What is the new vitamin D advice?
The new advice from PHE is that adults and children over the age of one should consider taking a daily supplement containing 10mcg of vitamin D, particularly during autumn and winter.

People who have a higher risk of vitamin D deficiency are being advised to take a supplement all year round.

SACN's review concluded that these at-risk groups include people whose skin has little or no exposure to the sun, like those in care homes, or people who cover their skin when they are outside.

People with dark skin, from African, African-Caribbean and South Asian backgrounds, may also not get enough vitamin D from sunlight in the summer. They should consider taking a supplement all year round as well.
And there is a specific coronavirus update
Quote:
Consider taking 10 micrograms of vitamin D a day to keep your bones and muscles healthy.

This is because you may not be getting enough vitamin D from sunlight if you’re indoors most of the day.

There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is no evidence that this is the case.

Do not buy more vitamin D than you need.
I fit two of those groups, osteoporosis risk and I have a serious reaction to the Sun so I have to keep well covered when in the Sun.

So maybe they aren't doing routine tests for vitamin D deficiency in hospitalized COVID 19 patients after all. Apparently because there's no indication.

This is what a number of medical experts had to say about the study in question:

Quote:
It's a perplexing scenario: Some scientists say that, while vitamin D does play a role in immune function, it won't majorly influence how your body reacts to Covid-19. Still, preliminary, non-peer-reviewed studies posit a possible link between vitamin D deficiency with worsened Covid-19 outcomes. ...

WHAT DO OTHER SCIENTISTS THINK ABOUT THE RESEARCH? — JoAnn Manson, an epidemiologist at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and chief of Harvard Medical School’s division of preventive medicine, tells Inverse that Backman and his team's hypothesis that vitamin D levels influence immunity, inflammation, and ultimately, cytokine storms, is plausible. ...

However, Manson notes this specific study "does not provide compelling evidence" of vitamin D's influence on severity and mortality linked to Covid-19 because it didn't control for major confounding factors.

David Seres, an internal medicine doctor and director of medical nutrition at Columbia University Irving Medical Center, tells Inverse that the preprint's conclusions are "misleading to the extreme."
Just like I said about the study:
Quote:
“The public should not be misled by this kind of study,” Seres says. “It tells us nothing about the benefit of increasing your vitamin D levels. It only describes a correlation, and does so indirectly and theoretically.”

The article goes on to say:
Quote:
WHAT ELSE DO WE KNOW ABOUT VITAMIN D AND COVID-19? — A literature review published May 1 by the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford looked at all the data collected so far on a Covid-19 and vitamin D.

The team failed to find any peer-reviewed studies showing vitamin D supplements are beneficial in preventing or treating Covid-19. There was also no evidence related to vitamin D deficiency predisposing people to the disease.
It turns out so few people are vitamin D deficient, testing for it isn't necessary.

So I take it back about people hospitalized for COVID 19 being tested.
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Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.

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Old Today, 12:20 PM   #2364
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
There's a load more information in the comments.
And misinformation including some CT believers.

They are interesting.
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Old Today, 12:26 PM   #2365
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Moving on:

2 hairstylists with COVID-19 may have exposed 140 people at salon

Both patrons and stylists wore masks, but both stylists were symptomatic when they worked! A mask on a symptomatic person close up like you'd see with getting a haircut would seem to not be enough.

So much for self-policing.

Between this exposure and the sporadic crowded beaches and parks, I'd really love to see the specific outcomes from these events.
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Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.

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Old Today, 12:27 PM   #2366
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I don't know why some people can't understand that self-policing almost never works. There's a reason we have laws and regulations.
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Old Today, 12:38 PM   #2367
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Moving on:

2 hairstylists with COVID-19 may have exposed 140 people at salon

Both patrons and stylists wore masks, but both stylists were symptomatic when they worked! A mask on a symptomatic person close up like you'd see with getting a haircut would seem to not be enough.

So much for self-policing.

Between this exposure and the sporadic crowded beaches and parks, I'd really love to see the specific outcomes from these events.
I see this as a study of short term exposure to a symptomatic person.

I hope we can get updates on this. Getting a haircut for 15minutes is not the same as living in a care home 24/7 or a crowded office for 8 then an hour on a subway to get home. Nor a choir practice for hours.
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Old Today, 12:42 PM   #2368
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Between this exposure and the sporadic crowded beaches and parks, I'd really love to see the specific outcomes from these events.
These are natural experiments. One's that couldn't ethically be done. Hopefully we will actually take advantage and measure outcomes.

Should be easy in the case of hair salons because all the people involved are known and traceable. I would assume testing them in the coming days should be at relatively high priority. Presumably the customers have already been notified to self isolate.

Not so much the crowded beaches. Have to depend on self reporting after diagnosis. Probably not a big factor given open, breezy, air dilution .
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Old Today, 12:56 PM   #2369
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
I see this as a study of short term exposure to a symptomatic person.

I hope we can get updates on this. Getting a haircut for 15minutes is not the same as living in a care home 24/7 or a crowded office for 8 then an hour on a subway to get home. Nor a choir practice for hours.
Why would it need more than 15 minutes (if we use your premise)? This is a highly contagious disease. It only takes one whiff of aerosolized virus leaking around the mask, drifting back into the patron's face.

It would be interesting to know how loose the stylist's and the patron's masks were.
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Old Today, 01:25 PM   #2370
Aridas
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Why would it need more than 15 minutes (if we use your premise)? This is a highly contagious disease. It only takes one whiff of aerosolized virus leaking around the mask, drifting back into the patron's face.

It would be interesting to know how loose the stylist's and the patron's masks were.
If, as has been poked at previously, it's likely to take about 1000 virus particles to infect someone, and a sneeze from an infected person can push out 2,000,000 (while also almost certainly breaking even the seals on tighter and thicker cloth masks), that's very problematic territory, even if the mask stops a large majority of it from getting out. From that source, a single cough pushes out more than 1000, as well, for reference.

The 15 minutes likely is more related to the much lower output of virus particles from talking and breathing more normally, either way, in the unlikely event that casebro was looking at it from that direction.
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Old Today, 01:43 PM   #2371
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Why would it need more than 15 minutes (if we use your premise)? This is a highly contagious disease. It only takes one whiff of aerosolized virus leaking around the mask, drifting back into the patron's face.

It would be interesting to know how loose the stylist's and the patron's masks were.
The two were breathing and probably talking a lot. Hairdressers talk constantly in my experience. So they were putting virus into the salon's air for hours. Perhaps really good ventilation could have kept levels down. But otherwise you go and sit in a room where the air is thick with virus for about 15 minutes. I'll cut my own hair, thank you. It's better to look ridiculous than to be dead!
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Old Today, 02:02 PM   #2372
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Warnings being issued about over dosing with Vitamin D
Jesus, people are stupid. Maybe they should ask why dosage limits exist.

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Stats question- Between nasals and serology guesstimates, an we extrapolate how many people in America have Covid RIGHT NOW?
5-10 million, based on active cases times 5-10, which seems to be consistently the excess we're seeing everywhere.

Add in somewhere around 5 million recovered and you're almost 10% of the way through the epidemic.
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Old Today, 02:09 PM   #2373
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Some more articles wrt Vitamin D and Coronavirus:

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1 (preprint)
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1 (Lancet article)
https://neurosciencenews.com/vitamin...rtality-16349/ (article)
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930660 (Medscape article)
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930152 (Video - Comment section is very interesting)
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Old Today, 02:31 PM   #2374
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
The two were breathing and probably talking a lot. Hairdressers talk constantly in my experience. So they were putting virus into the salon's air for hours. Perhaps really good ventilation could have kept levels down. But otherwise you go and sit in a room where the air is thick with virus for about 15 minutes. I'll cut my own hair, thank you. It's better to look ridiculous than to be dead!
That's a good point, possibly infecting people accompanying others who weren't even in the chair.

And how about patrons off to the sides getting haircuts from non-infected stylists? They'd be at risk from the air discharged out the sides of the mask. Then of course there are the other employees. I wonder how they felt about it when they found out?
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Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.

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Old Today, 02:48 PM   #2375
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Thanks very much!

The fist two are the same research, btw, and I couldn't access the Medscape article, but this looks pretty damned good to me:

Second link:

Quote:
Vitamin D levels are severely low in the aging population especially in Spain, Italy and Switzerland
and...

Quote:
In conclusion, we found significant crude relationships between vitamin D levels and the number COVID-19 cases and especially the mortality caused by this infection. The most vulnerable group of population for COVID-19, the aging population, is also the one that has the most deficit Vitamin D levels.
Neuroscience:

Quote:
Backman and his team discovered a strong correlation between vitamin D levels and cytokine storm ó a hyperinflammatory condition caused by an overactive immune system ó as well as a correlation between vitamin D deficiency and mortality.
JoAnn E. Manson, MD, DrPH - holy crap, she's even more positive than me on the subject, but she knows an awful lot more than me. (Couldn't access comments, unfortunately)

Still more research needed, but I'd certainly recommend old folks' homes should start feeding the cod-liver oil capsules.

I'm reserving a space on the display shelf for my Nobel Prize for Medicine.
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Old Today, 02:49 PM   #2376
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Some more articles wrt Vitamin D and Coronavirus:

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1 (preprint)

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1 (Lancet article)
That is not a Lancet article, it's a preprint. Lancet isn't even on the link page. And those two are the same link.

Did you mean to cite a different source there?

Regarding the 'preprint' I'll wait for the peer reviews. I find it hard to believe that many people are vitamin D deficient, even in the elderly, or that they have ruled out other variables correlated with elderly patients.

Quote:
While I don't want to bother logging on to Medscape to read the full articles, those also look to be discussing the one study we've already seen.

It doesn't help to post links you didn't carefully look at. Wasted my time.
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Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
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Old Today, 02:55 PM   #2377
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Still more research needed, but I'd certainly recommend old folks' homes should start feeding the cod-liver oil capsules.
There are also pills.
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Old Today, 02:57 PM   #2378
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Thanks very much!

Neuroscience:
Gee what a coincidence, it's the same original study.


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Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.

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Old Today, 04:14 PM   #2379
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
There are also pills.
Yep, $20 for 100. I bought some yesterday.
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Old Today, 04:30 PM   #2380
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
It's not even of interest! Has it been established as a treatment for cytokine storm?
Of course it is of interest. That’s why there is such a flurry of current research into whether it may be a treatment.
Quote:
Are doctors not including vitamin D levels when patients are admitted to the hospital for any respiratory infection? It should be in the basic admission screen and unless we are talking limited medical resources like maybe a third world country, I don't see why it wouldn't be.

This is another one of those 'research by social media science' projects. Researchers hoping to find the magic bullet without going through the hard work of proving the underlying premises first.

Step one: find out which doctors/hospitals/countries include/don't include vitamin D levels in the admission work up. Maybe the various NHS don't include it. Maybe only Kaiser patients are getting routine vitamin D levels. Wouldn't be hard to find out.

Step two, there was a correlation found between CRP and vitamin D levels A DECADE AGO!!! Did anything come of it? It's not like treatments for a cytokine storm haven't been searched for.

But no, why do actual background research when it's so easy to wishfully think these researchers were going to find a miracle cure and get a Nobel Prize.
British Medical Journal, 2017.

W.H.O.int 2019

Science Daily 2016

None from “3rd world countries” or a decade ago.

A google search on “cytokine storm vitamin D” returns a bevy of 2020 studies and papers.

The discussion is about whether vD has any place in treatment of COVID-19. Casebro asked why the interest, I answered the question.
It is being researched as a preventative and/or treatment fore COVID-19. I have no idea why you are arguing that it is not.
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Old Today, 05:37 PM   #2381
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
These are natural experiments. One's that couldn't ethically be done. Hopefully we will actually take advantage and measure outcomes.

Should be easy in the case of hair salons because all the people involved are known and traceable. I would assume testing them in the coming days should be at relatively high priority. Presumably the customers have already been notified to self isolate.

Not so much the crowded beaches. Have to depend on self reporting after diagnosis. Probably not a big factor given open, breezy, air dilution .
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Why would it need more than 15 minutes (if we use your premise)? This is a highly contagious disease. It only takes one whiff of aerosolized virus leaking around the mask, drifting back into the patron's face.

It would be interesting to know how loose the stylist's and the patron's masks were.
Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
The two were breathing and probably talking a lot. Hairdressers talk constantly in my experience. So they were putting virus into the salon's air for hours. Perhaps really good ventilation could have kept levels down. But otherwise you go and sit in a room where the air is thick with virus for about 15 minutes. I'll cut my own hair, thank you. It's better to look ridiculous than to be dead!
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
That's a good point, possibly infecting people accompanying others who weren't even in the chair.

And how about patrons off to the sides getting haircuts from non-infected stylists? They'd be at risk from the air discharged out the sides of the mask. Then of course there are the other employees. I wonder how they felt about it when they found out?
All will be answered. Like I said:

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
I see this as a study of short term exposure to a symptomatic person.

I hope we can get updates on this. Getting a haircut for 15minutes is not the same as living in a care home 24/7 or a crowded office for 8 then an hour on a subway to get home. Nor a choir practice for hours.
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Old Today, 05:44 PM   #2382
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
Of course it is of interest. Thatís why there is such a flurry of current research into whether it may be a treatment.
I'm utterly failing to see where the opposition to this stuff is coming from.

Your links show:

British Medical Journal, 2017.

Quote:
Conclusions Vitamin D supplementation was safe and it protected against acute respiratory tract infection overall. Patients who were very vitamin D deficient and those not receiving bolus doses experienced the most benefit.
W.H.O.int 2019

Quote:
In addition to causing rickets, vitamin D deficiency has been linked to respiratory infections such as pneumonia, tuberculosis and bronchiolitis.
Science Daily 2016

Quote:
Researchers at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus have found that high doses of vitamin D reduce the incidence of acute respiratory illness (ARI) in older, long-term care residents.
Given that last one, I have to say I'm amazed it's taken until now for D to be linked to severe Covid cases.

Isn't long-term care residents the number one on every list of Covid deaths?

Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
The discussion is about whether vD has any place in treatment of COVID-19.
We now have an avalanche of studies that say yes, and one internet poster saying no.
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Old Today, 05:49 PM   #2383
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
Casebro asked why the interest, I answered the question.
It is being researched as a preventative and/or treatment fore COVID-19. I have no idea why you are arguing that it is not.
A quibble - rather than preventative, it looks like a term like ameliorative would be more appropriate, maybe. It doesn't look like it prevents infection, after all, but rather just is correlated with less serious symptoms, if I understand the observations correctly. Also, I'm not so sure about treatment, either, given that the core principle in play seems to be more along the lines of keeping the immune system functioning as well and healthily as possible from the start, rather than directed at fixing COVID-19 or any of the other diseases that are correlated with a vitamin D deficiency.

As noted, though, that's quibbling.
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Old Today, 05:59 PM   #2384
Myriad
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yep, $20 for 100. I bought some yesterday.

That's about five times what I pay for daily D3 supplements. Is price gouging going on?
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Old Today, 06:03 PM   #2385
casebro
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
5-10 million, based on active cases times 5-10, which seems to be consistently the excess we're seeing everywhere.

Add in somewhere around 5 million recovered and you're almost 10% of the way through the epidemic.
NYC, USA, and World stats are all similar: Confirmed cases have about .6% death rate. Use the 10x for how many were non-confirmed, and the overall death rate , if we live the way we did, is .06%.

Except that now we know that major risk factor is major exposure like occupational or dense mass transport.

Perhops someone has good stats, a graph, of the cases in NYC before/after their lock down. Use that latest data to extrapolate into the future. I suspect down considerably from the .06%. .02?
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Old Today, 06:14 PM   #2386
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I'm eating salt and taking CoQ10 (aka Ubiquinone). I figure the chlorine from the salt will combine with the Quinone from the CoQ10. Wah-La, Chloroquinone!

And what with the Vit D (50,000iu ergocalciferol) and antihistamine? You can call me Pnademic Man!
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Old Today, 06:33 PM   #2387
Giordano
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
NYC, USA, and World stats are all similar: Confirmed cases have about .6% death rate. Use the 10x for how many were non-confirmed, and the overall death rate , if we live the way we did, is .06%.

Except that now we know that major risk factor is major exposure like occupational or dense mass transport.

Perhops someone has good stats, a graph, of the cases in NYC before/after their lock down. Use that latest data to extrapolate into the future. I suspect down considerably from the .06%. .02?
Sorry, could you clarify? If NYC, USA, and World stats all have about a 0.6% death rate why do “we know” that major risk factor for fatalities is major exposure? Wouldn’t most of the USA, having on average much lower population density than NYC, have on average much less intense exposures and much lower death rates?

I fear I am missing your point or your logic...

Also, I still am uncertain what the seropositivity stats are really saying.
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Old Today, 06:42 PM   #2388
TellyKNeasuss
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
NYC, USA, and World stats are all similar: Confirmed cases have about .6% death rate. Use the 10x for how many were non-confirmed, and the overall death rate , if we live the way we did, is .06%.

Except that now we know that major risk factor is major exposure like occupational or dense mass transport.

Perhops someone has good stats, a graph, of the cases in NYC before/after their lock down. Use that latest data to extrapolate into the future. I suspect down considerably from the .06%. .02?
I don't understand where you got a mortality rate of 0.06% for NYC. Their health dept. lists 16,482 fatalities, so for there to be a 0.06% mortality rate there would have had to have been over 27,000,000 cases. And there aren't that many people in the entire state of New York.
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Old Today, 06:45 PM   #2389
Giordano
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
I'm eating salt and taking CoQ10 (aka Ubiquinone). I figure the chlorine from the salt will combine with the Quinone from the CoQ10. Wah-La, Chloroquinone!

And what with the Vit D (50,000iu ergocalciferol) and antihistamine? You can call me Pnademic Man!
Just for any members not seeing the joke, CoQ10 (plus Cl or not) and chloroquine are very different chemically... Donít try this at home...
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Old Today, 06:55 PM   #2390
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
That's about five times what I pay for daily D3 supplements. Is price gouging going on?
No, pretty typical of supplements here, which are all absurdly expensive.

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
NYC, USA, and World stats are all similar: Confirmed cases have about .6% death rate. Use the 10x for how many were non-confirmed, and the overall death rate , if we live the way we did, is .06%.
Mate, your maths is so bad it's not funny - you're out by a factor of 10.

Current mortality rates are:

USA - 6%
Italy - 14%
UK - 14%

Does your computer not have a calculator? This is pretty simple stuff, but I agree with you that the official numbers are out by a factor of 10 as well. So, not 0.06%, but more likely 0.6%.
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Old Today, 08:00 PM   #2391
alfaniner
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
I'm eating salt and taking CoQ10 (aka Ubiquinone). I figure the chlorine from the salt will combine with the Quinone from the CoQ10. Wah-La, Chloroquinone!

And what with the Vit D (50,000iu ergocalciferol) and antihistamine? You can call me Pnademic Man!
And I'm sure the "P" is silent.

Although probably darkly colored.
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Old Today, 08:04 PM   #2392
Ulf Nereng
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
That is not a Lancet article, it's a preprint. Lancet isn't even on the link page. And those two are the same link.

Did you mean to cite a different source there?

Regarding the 'preprint' I'll wait for the peer reviews. I find it hard to believe that many people are vitamin D deficient, even in the elderly, or that they have ruled out other variables correlated with elderly patients.

While I don't want to bother logging on to Medscape to read the full articles, those also look to be discussing the one study we've already seen.

It doesn't help to post links you didn't carefully look at. Wasted my time.
Yes, I made a mistake with a link there. Here's the Lancet article I was trying to link to

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...183-2/fulltext

ETA: There is a link at the bottom of that page to the Lancet's Covid-19 Resource Centre. I'll post it here for ease of access:

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

All Lancet articles about the virus in one spot!

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