ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags Coronavirus , diseases

Reply
Old Today, 09:58 PM   #1201
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 79,999
Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
No, the 20 million is the estimate if action is taken. It was 40 million-100 million if no action were taken.

The paper included all countries for which data existed.
Some estimates for the 1918 flu are as high as 50 million deaths.

Probably not too useful arguing about such uncertain numbers.

I base my opinion this won't be as bad as the 1918 flu on the reasoning we have advanced science compared to what they had in 1918. Viruses weren't even recognized in 1918.

They may very well be comparably bad pathogens.
__________________
Trump Lied, People Died What color hat should I order with that logo? I think red on black.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 10:11 PM   #1202
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 24,691
Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
This doesnt help with the question of whether I should go inside the store or not
Go ahead.

If it's in aerosol form, a mask won't make any difference and I'm not seeing millions of people being infected while wearing masks.

I have no choice but to shop, so I hope I'm right!

Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
At this point I'm pretty much done arguing about it. The numbers will prove me right.
Good idea. Wait until the measures have impacted on the number of cases and deaths and declare yourself right.

Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
I think it should be obvious that Covid is a more serious illness than the flu.
It should be equally obvious it's a waste of time arguing with someone whose mind is made up. I find that most people with that kind of opinion think losing money is more important than losing lives. Especially old and sick lives.
___________________________

Meanwhile, the next 24 hours will see the millionth confirmed case and the 50,000th death.

Not much growth for a virus which consisted of all of 50 cases just three months ago. That's a multiple of 20,000 in 90 days.

How could anyone say that showed an exponential increase?
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 10:15 PM   #1203
Blue Mountain
Resident Skeptical Hobbit
 
Blue Mountain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Waging war on woo-woo in Winnipeg
Posts: 5,858
Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Yes, thank you, you make very good points and I can see how it is faulty reasoning. That's why I'm on this board. I am a big believer in good evidence and good reasoning. The reason I'm skeptical of this pandemic is because so far I haven't found the evidence persuasive that one exists. I think we will see total combined deaths between flu and coronavirus in the US for the 2019-2020 season of 65,000-80,000, clearly a heavy flu/respiratory illness season, but not the disaster predicted. And then, as I said before, all the people who were wrong will still say I was the one who was wrong because all of the lockdowns are what caused the low number of deaths. I don't see a way out of this conundrum.
One way would be to see the difference in infection and (sadly) deaths between countries that had an early response to the problem vs ones that had a delayed response.

TL;DR
  • Canada and the US have similar infrastructure and similar culture
  • These similarities include a similar approach to the annual influenza season, such as vaccination programs
  • The population of the USA is 8.6 times that of Canada
  • Depending on the source used, the ratio of deaths from influenza and pneumonia in Canada vs the USA are 1:6.2, 1:7.7, or 1:13, roughly similar to the 1:8.6 ratio in the overall population
  • Observation: similar responses to influenza in two similar countries show similar death rates
  • Due to leadership differences, Canada had a demonstrably quicker response to COVID-19 than the US
  • At this stage in the epidemic, the ratio of deaths from COVID-19 in Canada vs the USA is an astonishing 1:46; that is, for every Canadian who has died from COVID-19, 46 Americans have died
  • Observation: different responses to COVID-19 in two similar countries have led to difference outcomes
  • Conclusion: COVID-19 is not like the flu

The details

As I've done more than once, I invite you to look at the difference between Canada and the USA. There are many similarities between the two countries: a random photograph of a small town or medium sized city in the US is almost indistinguishable from one taken in Canada, although there might a few "tells" such as speed limit signs or the presence of a Target store (US only) vs Canadian Tire.

One of these similarities is the influenza season and the publicly available vaccine. Here in Canada the vaccine is pretty much free for the asking, and I suspect it's covered by every health insurance plan in the US. According to Vaccine uptake in Canadian Adults 2019, the overall vaccination rate in Canadian adults was 42%, while the CDC says it was 45.3% in the USA. Therefore, all other things being equal, the flu season should have an equal effect in Canada and the USA, with very similar numbers for deaths per 100,000 population.

Unfortunately, comparing influenza deaths (and deaths from "influenza like illnesses") between the two countries is a perplexing task because sites I've looked at display different results. statistica.com shows "Death rate for influenza and pneumonia in Canada 2000-2017"with a number of 20.2 per 100,000 in Canada and 14.3 per 100,000 in the US (both are for year 2017.) However, wordlifeexpetcency.com's Influenza and Pneumonia graph shows 9.3 for Canada and 14.9 for the USA (year unknown.) The USA number is consistent between the two sites, but for Canada one site's number is double that of the other. worldatlas.comshows 6,235 deaths from influenza and pneumonia in Canada, which translates to 16.4 per 100,000.

For American deaths from influenza and pneumonia, I'll split the difference between the statistica.com number of 14.3 and the wordlifeexpetcency.com number of 14.9 and use 14.6. Ergo, a rough estimate of the total number of deaths from influenza is:

Code:
328,239,523 ÷ 100,000 × 14.6 = 47,922.970358, or 47,923
Depending on the source used, the number of deaths in Canada from influenza and pneumonia can be summarized as follows, based on the current population estimate.

Table 1. Estimate of Canadian deaths from influenza and pneumonia

Rate Deaths
9.3
3,533
16.4
6,229
20.2
7,672


Next, I'm going to talk about the Canada to USA population ratio. Wikipedia says the population of Canada "Q1 2020 estimate" is 37,984,728, and the USA "2019 estimate" is 328,239,523. That translates to 8.6 Americans for every one Canadian. (I've been using 8.7 for a while now, but from now on I'll be using the 8.6 number.) All other things being equal, if something happens 1,000 Canadians, we would normally expect the same thing to happen to 8,600 American. (Of course, that's not true for everything: gun deaths in the USA are far than in Canada.)

So, let's take the three different values for Canadian deaths, compare them to the estimated value for American deaths, and compute a ratio for Canada versus the US.

Table 2. Ratio of deaths from influenza and pneumonia for Canada vs the United States

Canadian rate Canadian deaths US Deaths Actual Canada:US ratio Expected ratio  
9.3
3,533
47,923
1:13
1:8.6  
16.4
6,229
47,923
1:7.7
1:8.6  
20.2
7,672
47,923
1:6.2
1:8.6  

Aside from 1:13 ratio, the ratio of Canadian to US deaths is close to the population ratio of 1:8.6.

Now let's look at the ratio of Canadian deaths to the US deaths for COVID-19. While the president of the United States spent six weeks in February and March denying there was a problem (up to the declaration of a national emergency on March 13,) Canada was enacting measures to slow the spread. Canada first tried a containment strategy starting in early February, but it was too little and too late, so the government switched to a flatten the curve strategy. Pandemic response plans were in place as early as February 24 and aggressive measures started in the early March.

Table 3. Ratio of deaths from COVID-19 for Canada vs the United States as of April 1, 2020 23:55 EDT

MetricCanadaExpected US number based on 1:8.7 ratioActual US NumberActual Canada:US ratio
COVID-19 cases
9,713
85,532
216,154
1:22
COVID-19 deaths
111
955
5,115
1:46

Here's my conclusion: Canada and the US have a similar level of overall development, culture, and response to influenza. This is reflected in similar numbers for death from influenza, based on a ratio of the population. However, due to different responses to the current pandemic, the US is seeing a far different death rate from COVID-19: for every Canadian who has died from COVID-19, 46 Americans have died. I conclude this is an epidemic, and it's hitting the US harder than Canada.
__________________
The social illusion reigns to-day upon all the heaped-up ruins of the past, and to it belongs the future. The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Gustav Le Bon, The Crowd, 1895 (from the French)
Canadian or living in Canada? PM me if you want an entry on the list of Canadians on the forum.
Blue Mountain is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 10:23 PM   #1204
ProBonoShill
Master Poster
 
ProBonoShill's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 2,285
Originally Posted by ProBonoShill View Post
This is nonsense.

How many patients in his hospital have been in in ICU? How many died?

Name of hospital please.

Toronto has 25+ hospitals and Ontario has 37 deaths total as I type this (vast majority from retirement/nursing homes). Canada as a country- 109 deaths.

Let's use conservative numbers and say every Toronto hospital only has 10 critical cases, that's 250 ICU patients, which based on your hearsay means 165 people have died in Toronto alone, not even close to being true.

Hopefully your imaginary ICU physician is better at treating respiratory illness than he is at math.
Update- Total deaths for Toronto -19
__________________
"CD does not prove 9/11 was an inside job. It only proves CD"- FalseFlag
ProBonoShill is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 10:27 PM   #1205
Doghouse Reilly
Adrift on an uncharted sea
 
Doghouse Reilly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 3,156
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Go ahead.
Good idea. Wait until the measures have impacted on the number of cases and deaths and declare yourself right
Even the best case projections by those declaring this a pandemic are not expecting numbers that would validate my expectations. So if you were to try to claim such low numbers were the result of the measures being implemented, that would be disingenuous. As another poster said, any US death toll under 100k would indicate I was right.
Doghouse Reilly is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 10:30 PM   #1206
Doghouse Reilly
Adrift on an uncharted sea
 
Doghouse Reilly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 3,156
Two Stanford professors of medicine, Dr. Eran Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, explain in an article that the lethality of Covid19 is overestimated by several orders of magnitude and is probably even in Italy only at 0.01% to 0.06% and thus below that of influenza. The reason for this overestimation is the greatly underestimated number of people already infected (without symptoms). As an example, the fully tested Italian community of Vo is mentioned, which showed 50 to 75% symptom-free test-positive persons.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200325...ay-11585088464
Doghouse Reilly is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 10:33 PM   #1207
ProBonoShill
Master Poster
 
ProBonoShill's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 2,285
Originally Posted by Blue Mountain View Post
One way would be to see the difference in infection and (sadly) deaths between countries that had an early response to the problem vs ones that had a delayed response.
You keep making this comparisons as if they're somehow valid. The U.S is a far more populated country with a smaller landmass than Canada. Using population density as a sole metric is simply ignorant.

It's like comparing Alaska to Ontario, run those numbers and get back to me.

Not to mention on a worldwide scale our southern neighbours while not doing the best have a much better survival rate than several European nations which get touted here as being far better off healthwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
__________________
"CD does not prove 9/11 was an inside job. It only proves CD"- FalseFlag
ProBonoShill is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 10:56 PM   #1208
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 24,691
Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
As another poster said, any US death toll under 100k would indicate I was right.
And if India has 5 million deaths, or the rest of the world has 30 million, will you still be right?

Let's just say at the moment that there isn't enough evidence and that the question can wait three months for an answer.

We'll leave it there, eh?
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 10:59 PM   #1209
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
 
Pixel42's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Malmesbury, UK
Posts: 11,656
Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Yes, thank you, you make very good points and I can see how it is faulty reasoning. That's why I'm on this board. I am a big believer in good evidence and good reasoning. The reason I'm skeptical of this pandemic is because so far I haven't found the evidence persuasive that one exists. I think we will see total combined deaths between flu and coronavirus in the US for the 2019-2020 season of 65,000-80,000, clearly a heavy flu/respiratory illness season, but not the disaster predicted. And then, as I said before, all the people who were wrong will still say I was the one who was wrong because all of the lockdowns are what caused the low number of deaths. I don't see a way out of this conundrum.
It's the Y2K thing all over again. I and thousands of other software engineers worked our socks off to fix the damn thing before the deadline, then when we succeeded loads of smug gits who'd been insisting it wasn't a real problem said "see, we were right, there never was a problem".

Unfortunately in this case I don't think the countermeasures will be enough for the reality of the problem to be deniable by even the smuggest of gits, let alone someone prepared to be convinced by the evidence as you appear to be.
__________________
"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett
Pixel42 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 11:02 PM   #1210
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 79,999
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Go ahead.

If it's in aerosol form, a mask won't make any difference and I'm not seeing millions of people being infected while wearing masks.
So none of those health care workers getting infected were wearing masks?
__________________
Trump Lied, People Died What color hat should I order with that logo? I think red on black.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 11:06 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.