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Old 7th February 2018, 12:23 PM   #2001
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It's just bumps along the way down. The rebound volumes are bigger as it gets lower .. but the trend is still set.
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Old 7th February 2018, 06:49 PM   #2002
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
Much like what happens when I bet in roulette, whatever I think is going to happen does not happen. I honestly thought BTC would be below 6k by this time and here it is rebounding to over 8k. I do notice that Samson has not chimed in on BTCs movement so I assume the algorithm didnt have much to say about the current status. If I had bought when it was hovering at $6500 and sold right now around $8500, that would have been a nice percentage gain.
A reasonable way to look at TA is to consider out of the money/ in the money ratio. In this case 68/2902
I don't trade bitcoin because there is no appropriate instrument, but I think you can assume a drop of 33% would have seen me taking some profit even though that can be the hardest thing for some people..
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Old 8th February 2018, 04:18 AM   #2003
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This cat ain't dead
I think we can all enjoy the sparring, psion10 is a stalwart

Fascinating, best show in town.
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Old 8th February 2018, 06:36 AM   #2004
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
This cat ain't dead
I think we can all enjoy the sparring, psion10 is a stalwart

Fascinating, best show in town.

Agreed. This cat might have nine lives (bounces) but I reckon each one will be weaker that the previous bounce.

How high the bounce this time? I reckon it will stop short of $10,000.
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Old 8th February 2018, 06:54 AM   #2005
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Some reasons why some people like cryptos.

Quote:
https://www.express.co.uk/finance/ci...arket-sell-off

“Bitcoin’s anti-establishment roots and decentralised system brings with it the hope for a new economy that puts people over corporations.

“This is an extremely appealing message to millennials who watched their job outlooks dwindle as the financial crisis unfolded in tandem with their first-ever entry into the job market.”

Another study asked participants where they would invest $5,000 if they had to put it in one place.

Around 13 per cent of millennials chose cryptocurrency, compared with just three per cent of those between 45 to 64.

Still a lot of hype out there. Some reckon the bounce is due to the fall in the stock market. From the frying pan into the fire I say to that.
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Old 9th February 2018, 06:39 PM   #2006
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I think he means about Bitcoin. That is the topic of the thread, after all.
Um, no. There are good reasons why one should predict the sun will rise in the east. It's not just guesswork. There are good reasons to think Bitcoin is hugely overvalued.

Predictions /= guesses
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Old 10th February 2018, 01:04 AM   #2007
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
Um, no. There are good reasons why one should predict the sun will rise in the east. It's not just guesswork. There are good reasons to think Bitcoin is hugely overvalued.

Predictions /= guesses
Stop embarrassing yourself. There is no nexus between bitcoin prices and earth's axis of rotation.
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Old 10th February 2018, 02:24 AM   #2008
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During this 50% rally in bitcoin price emerges this analysis

https://www.forbes.com/richest-in-cr.../#4ac2a3ed1d49

Surprisingly none more than a few lazy billion.
No Musk Bezos or Gates yet.
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Old 10th February 2018, 02:30 AM   #2009
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Stop embarrassing yourself. There is no nexus between bitcoin prices and earth's axis of rotation.

There most certainly is when it is used in the context of predictions.

Predicting that the sun sets in the West is as reliable a prediction as one can make. Not 100% because nothing in the future is absolutely certain.

Predicting future stock market moves and predicting the future price and direction of bitcoin is not as certain, but history has shown that fundamentals can be applied in the long term. That is why people were and are saying that the current "correction" in the stock market HAD to come, and was predictable except as to the time and the speed of the descent.

Short-term predictions are in the arena of "guesses" rather than a prediction based on some underlying reason.

Long-term predictions of speculative behavior has shown a typical rise and fall. The fall is usually to accepted valuations. The accepted valuation of bitcoin is zero. It has no function as a currency. That is why its fall to zero is a long-term reliable prediction and not a guess or opinion.
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Old 10th February 2018, 02:30 AM   #2010
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Stop embarrassing yourself. There is no nexus between bitcoin prices and earth's axis of rotation.
So you totally missed fudbucker's point.
In fairness you are surviving as the thread sage.
So is the Turkey a week before Thanksgiving.
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Old 10th February 2018, 02:43 AM   #2011
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Stop embarrassing yourself. There is no nexus between bitcoin prices and earth's axis of rotation.
Who says? I bet if the Earth changed its axis of rotation there would be an effect on the price of Bitcoin. And if the earth's rotation suddenly stopped, the atmosphere, oceans and topsoil would whizz off into space, along with all holders of Bitcoin who weren't tied down.
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Old 10th February 2018, 02:56 AM   #2012
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
There most certainly is when it is used in the context of predictions.
What a load of poppycock! Bitcoin prices are not subject to any known laws of physics. Even the block generation rate is subject to statistical laws rather than physics (which is why you can never tell when a new block will be added to the chain). As for the thought processes of future speculators ...

Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
< ... Gorp ... Fnark ... Shmegle ... > (ftfy) The accepted valuation of bitcoin is zero. It has no function as a currency. That is why its fall to zero is a long-term reliable prediction and not a guess or opinion.
2011 called. They want their failed argument back.
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Old 10th February 2018, 02:57 AM   #2013
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Who says? I bet if the Earth changed its axis of rotation there would be an effect on the price of Bitcoin. And if the earth's rotation suddenly stopped, the atmosphere, oceans and topsoil would whizz off into space, along with all holders of Bitcoin who weren't tied down.
All cats have 4 legs.
My dog has 4 legs.
.....
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Old 10th February 2018, 03:34 AM   #2014
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
All cats have 4 legs.
My dog has 4 legs.
.....
Bitcoin has no legs.
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Old 10th February 2018, 05:27 AM   #2015
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Bitcoin has no legs.
And you don't have a leg to stand on either.
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Old 10th February 2018, 06:31 AM   #2016
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
(snip)

2011 called. They want their failed argument back.

They were right in principle. Just too soon to be long-term.

Cryptos have a massive industry behind them - and they are not just going to let it fall into the abyss like it is supposed to. But, like the laws of gravity, it eventually must and will.
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Old 10th February 2018, 10:48 AM   #2017
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Another sell confirmed by the 2 hour chart.
8430 currently.
Expect 7400 in the next 2 days.
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Old 10th February 2018, 11:33 AM   #2018
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Another sell confirmed by the 2 hour chart.
8430 currently.
Expect 7400 in the next 2 days.


I will be watching.

So a two-hour analysis of bitcoin prices leads to a 2 day forecast? I know nothing about TA so Im interested in how that works.
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Old 10th February 2018, 12:11 PM   #2019
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
I will be watching.

So a two-hour analysis of bitcoin prices leads to a 2 day forecast? I know nothing about TA so I’m interested in how that works.
Lower highs lower lows in the ups and downs, it is pretty simple. I will show workings when I get a chance.
If I see an earlier moment I will post.

Last edited by Samson; 10th February 2018 at 12:12 PM.
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Old 10th February 2018, 02:29 PM   #2020
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Stop embarrassing yourself. There is no nexus between bitcoin prices and earth's axis of rotation.
Somebody's being embarrassed in this thread. I'll leave it up to others to decide who.
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Old 10th February 2018, 03:06 PM   #2021
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
Um, no. There are good reasons why one should predict the sun will rise in the east. It's not just guesswork.
You're missing the point. Psion was talking about predictions ABOUT BITCOIN, not about the sun.
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Old 10th February 2018, 08:21 PM   #2022
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Will it pay off my 2X more expensive* super-happening Graphic Card or not?






*now that all the 2bit-miners are buying up all GPU's they can get the hands on.
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Old 10th February 2018, 10:00 PM   #2023
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
You're missing the point. Psion was talking about predictions ABOUT BITCOIN, not about the sun.

As sure as the sun sets in the West, Bitcoin is dropping.

The latest bounce is over, and down she goes again. Just like a setting sun.

Slow but sure, until it disappears. Unlike the sun, it will not rise another day.
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Old 10th February 2018, 11:45 PM   #2024
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
As sure as the sun sets in the West, Bitcoin is dropping.
As sure as you don't know what number will come up next when you roll the dice, you have no idea what the price of bitcoin will be tomorrow.
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Old 11th February 2018, 12:49 AM   #2025
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
As sure as you don't know what number will come up next when you roll the dice, you have no idea what the price of bitcoin will be tomorrow.
Huh? I've told you what the price will be tomorrow.
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Old 11th February 2018, 01:31 AM   #2026
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
As sure as you don't know what number will come up next when you roll the dice, you have no idea what the price of bitcoin will be tomorrow.
That's absolutely right, but there's an overall pattern of downward progress. From just below twenty thousand to just below eight thousand. Don't you think that's significant? Do you think it will be followed by further decline, or by huge increases like the ones recorded in early December during the last paroxysm of the mania?

Personally I think further decline is more probable, but I may be wrong. Though I don't think it is possible to predict specific days future values. I've explained why. Suppose TA predicts that the value will be $7,400 in a soecific week, and I believe that prediction. Then I might sell at $7,500 the previous week, which I wouldn't have done absent the prediction. Thus these predictions, even if mathematically sound, disconfirm themselves in practice, and the figures become unpredictable yet again.
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Old 11th February 2018, 01:43 AM   #2027
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
That's absolutely right, but there's an overall pattern of downward progress. From just below twenty thousand to just below eight thousand. Don't you think that's significant? Do you think it will be followed by further decline, or by huge increases like the ones recorded in early December during the last paroxysm of the mania?

Personally I think further decline is more probable, but I may be wrong. Though I don't think it is possible to predict specific days future values. I've explained why. Suppose TA predicts that the value will be $7,400 in a soecific week, and I believe that prediction. Then I might sell at $7,500 the previous week, which I wouldn't have done absent the prediction. Thus these predictions, even if mathematically sound, disconfirm themselves in practice, and the figures become unpredictable yet again.
Obviously I was guessing at 7400, mainly because anything but total specificity gets one of the wise guys around here suggesting I will be right next century and claim victory.
TA is best seen as a tool to call direction with an affordable stop loss, which I have tried to do here.
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Old 11th February 2018, 01:45 AM   #2028
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Huh? I've told you what the price will be tomorrow.
But if you compare bitcoin to a dice then what you are saying is a sheer guess.

OTOH if you compare bitcoin to the sun in the sky then you know almost to a certainty exactly when the price will rise and when it will set (fall).

Have I got this method of uncritical thinking wrong?
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Old 11th February 2018, 01:50 AM   #2029
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Obviously I was guessing at 7400, mainly because anything but total specificity gets one of the wise guys around here suggesting I will be right next century and claim victory.
TA is best seen as a tool to call direction with an affordable stop loss, which I have tried to do here.
Yes, direction with stop loss - if any - might be a rational prediction.
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Old 11th February 2018, 05:59 AM   #2030
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
As sure as you don't know what number will come up next when you roll the dice, you have no idea what the price of bitcoin will be tomorrow.

No one knows otherwise they would be rich. And it would be proof of the supernatural.

But I can say with a 90% certainty that in a years time the price and the coin will in the dustbin of history and never recover. That would constitute a speculative bet.
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Old 11th February 2018, 08:18 AM   #2031
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
No one knows otherwise they would be rich. And it would be proof of the supernatural.
So you admit that the sunrise/sunset analogy is invalid.
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Old 11th February 2018, 09:59 AM   #2032
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
So you admit that the sunrise/sunset analogy is invalid.

???
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Old 11th February 2018, 10:18 AM   #2033
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
???
You're the one who used the "sun sets in the west" analogy (post #2023).

Of course, you could have also compared bitcoin to unicorns and concluded that bitcoin doesn't exist.

Or you could have compared bitcoin to an asylum and concluded that only crazy people speculate in bitcoin.

Or you could have compared bitcoin to a high powered explosive and concluded that bitcoin is set to blow up the financial sector.

Or you could have ....

(See also post #2028).
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Old 11th February 2018, 10:24 AM   #2034
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Clearly the rebound is not over. What about tomorrow ?
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Old 11th February 2018, 10:55 AM   #2035
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Obviously I was guessing at 7400, mainly because anything but total specificity gets one of the wise guys around here suggesting I will be right next century and claim victory.

TA is best seen as a tool to call direction with an affordable stop loss, which I have tried to do here.
Ok. That would be helpful if you are working from a known position. But even then, lets take me as an example. bitcoin at $15. At how many points would TA have told me to sell before I actually did sell? Im sure there would have been all kinds of buy/sell signals in the years leading up to Dec2017.

IOW, you need to know a few things before the advice can make sense: 1) what price was the asset purchased at? 2)How risk tolerant is the investor? 3) What fees are involved in trading the asset? Your arbitrary stop-loss of 7400 may not make sense for a guy like me who bought at 15. Maybe if I bought at 15000, but then again Id probably already have a stop-loss point in mind. Plus, If Im following TA advice without emotion -selling and buying with the signals- the transaction fees are going to eat up the small profits Im booking.

I need to see it in actual practice in order to buy it.
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Old 11th February 2018, 10:57 AM   #2036
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
No one knows otherwise they would be rich. And it would be proof of the supernatural.



But I can say with a 90% certainty that in a years time the price and the coin will in the dustbin of history and never recover. That would constitute a speculative bet.


Ill bet you that in one year, bitcoin will still be around.
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Old 11th February 2018, 04:53 PM   #2037
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
Ok. That would be helpful if you are working from a known position. But even then, lets take me as an example. bitcoin at $15. At how many points would TA have told me to sell before I actually did sell? Im sure there would have been all kinds of buy/sell signals in the years leading up to Dec2017.

IOW, you need to know a few things before the advice can make sense: 1) what price was the asset purchased at? 2)How risk tolerant is the investor? 3) What fees are involved in trading the asset? Your arbitrary stop-loss of 7400 may not make sense for a guy like me who bought at 15. Maybe if I bought at 15000, but then again Id probably already have a stop-loss point in mind. Plus, If Im following TA advice without emotion -selling and buying with the signals- the transaction fees are going to eat up the small profits Im booking.

I need to see it in actual practice in order to buy it.
The idea is to be naked short as in futures. I will post a full analysis with piuctures when I get time of what I am talking about.
Meanwhile the great plunge is underway. Expect that 7400 on schedule and a lot lower this week.
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Old 11th February 2018, 09:11 PM   #2038
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The idea is to be naked short as in futures. I will post a full analysis with piuctures when I get time of what I am talking about.

Meanwhile the great plunge is underway. Expect that 7400 on schedule and a lot lower this week.


It hasnt hit 7400, it hasnt even moved in a downward direction and you definitely cant say the great plunge is underway.

I get the idea of a naked short. If someone had done a naked short with the idea of a 2-day decline, they would be a little disappointed right now. Little to no profit and the fees would take even that.
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Old 11th February 2018, 09:17 PM   #2039
psionl0
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
If someone had done a naked short with the idea of a 2-day decline, they would be a little disappointed right now. Little to no profit and the fees would take even that.
Be patient. It hasn't been 2 days yet.

If you do a naked short as a gentleman's agreement then there doesn't need to be any fees involved. You give Samson the price of a bitcoin today and Samson gives you the price of a bitcoin 2 days later.
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Old 11th February 2018, 10:58 PM   #2040
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Be patient. It hasn't been 2 days yet.

If you do a naked short as a gentleman's agreement then there doesn't need to be any fees involved. You give Samson the price of a bitcoin today and Samson gives you the price of a bitcoin 2 days later.
Very good mediation.
I am short 8430, last 8368.
48 hours after original post is the price.

eta 11 hours 50 to run.

Last edited by Samson; 11th February 2018 at 10:59 PM.
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