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Tags Emmanuel Macron , France elections , France politics , Marine Le Pen , political predictions , political speculation

View Poll Results: Who will win the 2017 French presidential election?
Nathalie Arthaud* 0 0%
François Asselineau* 0 0%
Jacques Cheminade* 0 0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0 0%
François Fillon 2 6.45%
Benoît Hamon 0 0%
Jean Lassalle 0 0%
Marine Le Pen 7 22.58%
Emmanuel Macron* 16 51.61%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon* 0 0%
Philippe Poutou* 0 0%
On planet X, Trump wins all elections 6 19.35%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 7th May 2017, 02:00 PM   #321
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
Stated and respectful reaction from the Leave.EU campaign

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/...07433829924866
Jeez, what absolute tossers.
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Old 7th May 2017, 02:11 PM   #322
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
Marseille is pretty much a bastion of FN.

One potential headache for Macron, as he set about trying to heal the country, will be that the 2 million voters who posted a spoiled ballot. That's 2 million voters actively saying no thanks to either candidate.
Nevertheless, 2 million who bothered to vote making their voices known. A good sign and a good result. I am relieved with this one.
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Old 7th May 2017, 02:45 PM   #323
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Ahhhhhh-skis.

Now, onto to the legislative elections, which will be crucial to having some semblance of effective governance. That will be critical to stopping Le Pen next time, after two successive unpopular results from both former main parties. A third failed presidency may make a hard right or left win unstoppable next time.
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Old 7th May 2017, 03:42 PM   #324
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Looks like the craze is dying down. This is the sixth straight European election that right-wing nationalists underperformed their polls.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilve...82140092346368
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Old 7th May 2017, 04:18 PM   #325
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Fingers crossed for next month then. But some sort of madness seems to be consuming too many English voters.
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Old 7th May 2017, 09:25 PM   #326
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Looks like the craze is dying down. This is the sixth straight European election that right-wing nationalists underperformed their polls.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilve...82140092346368
Yeah, regression towards the mean is in the works. 2016 was an exception, not the new norm.

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Old 7th May 2017, 09:27 PM   #327
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Fingers crossed for next month then. But some sort of madness seems to be consuming too many English voters.
With the choices you have it's not a madness of your electorate. Most of UK can vote either far left UKIP, right UKIP, far right UKIP or LibDems, who are excommunucated.

With choices like those the electorate is powerless, just ask the Russians.

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Old 7th May 2017, 10:44 PM   #328
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Originally Posted by Belgian thought View Post
Nevertheless, 2 million who bothered to vote making their voices known. A good sign and a good result. I am relieved with this one.
Spoiling your paper isn't voting in my book.

In any case a good result in the end but not enjoying the triumphalism this morning I see elsewhere. 35 percent for scum like the the FN is 35 percent too many and we shouldn't think we have defeated them or their ideas and take the eye off the ball.

I will forgive a little celebration this morning after the past twelve months though
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Old 7th May 2017, 10:54 PM   #329
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Yeah, regression towards the mean is in the works. 2016 was an exception, not the new norm.

McHrozni

When the dust settles it'll just be sad little Britain left holding the wooden spoon.
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Old 7th May 2017, 10:57 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by Belgian thought View Post
Nevertheless, 2 million who bothered to vote making their voices known. A good sign and a good result. I am relieved with this one.
Politician do not care the *slightest* about vote spoil. See they direct the country for those who *vote*, and in the case of alliance, for those who voted for each party. Spoiling your vote does not serve anything whatsoever, as you are announcing dissatisfaction, yes, but you are not stating HOW to change that dissatisfaction, and therefore there is quite nothing politician would/should/could do.

Even if 50% of the vote would be spoiled vote ... So what ? The elected politician could only do what the same as if there was zero percent blank votes...
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:05 PM   #331
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Originally Posted by Ape of Good Hope View Post
When the dust settles it'll just be sad little Britain England left holding the wooden spoon.
FTFY.

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Old 7th May 2017, 11:11 PM   #332
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
FTFY.

McHrozni

Good point
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:15 PM   #333
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"The Tory party "defeated" populism by embracing it and embodying it. Macron defeated it by...defeating it. What a difference."

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/st...22820663562241
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:25 PM   #334
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
In any case a good result in the end but not enjoying the triumphalism this morning I see elsewhere. 35 percent for scum like the the FN is 35 percent too many and we shouldn't think we have defeated them or their ideas and take the eye off the ball.
True enough, but put it in perspective. The past two French governments were deeply unpopular and alternative parties arose, two strong candidates were vying for the outright retard vote. France is the sick man of Europe economically and was struck by severe terrorist attacks, strengthening one of these alternative parties who milks the resulting prejudice for all it's worth and then some.

In light of that, the French picked a new party candidate that promised to strengthen ties with Europe and redouble the efforts at integration. Legislative election looks swell too:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French...election,_2017

Marcon is on the right track to secure a (slim) majority. He may need to caucuse with one of the other parties, but he doesn't need a major party for that. In the time when France could easily be the next domino to fall it increasingly looks like it will be anything but. Five years is a long time and by then the examples of UK and USA will show while populists appear to have all the answers, in reality they have none.

There are other things that could happen. Political parties may develop a culture of vigorous cybersecurity, making the hacks of 2016 and 2017 but an unpleasant memory. ISIS could fall, Russia could implode ...

Victory is not yet nigh, but at least the tide has turned.

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Old 8th May 2017, 01:16 AM   #335
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To put some perspective to the often read argument that Macron is in a weak position because of the high abstention rate and many spoiled ballots.

In terms of registered voters, the result is:
Macron: 43.63%
Le Pen: 22.38%

For Brexit, it was:
Leave: 37.44%
Remain: 34.71%

And while not really comparable due to the arcane electoral system, for the last US presidential election:
Trump: 25.53%
Clinton: 26.69%
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Old 8th May 2017, 07:38 AM   #336
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Nice piece of satire in the New Statesman: Deep in Macron Country

Quote:
The waiter brings over more drinks. Tahar is in his 20s and a Muslim. He has a simple explanation for Macron's triumph. "These Le Pen voters are trapped in a exurban nativist bubble. They are out of touch with the needs and values of real French people, like me." He is right. There are deep forces at work here, which have caused the triumph of innumerable centrists around the western world over the past few decades. Only a blinkered fool would try to deny this uncomfortable truth. Perhaps, I begin to wonder with prickling unease, it is just as legitimate an electoral strategy to appeal to young people, ethnic minorities and social liberals as it is to go for the votes of nativist whites? I shake my head to clear it. No. Saying that would be like saying that there is no hierarchy of citizenhood, and that every voter is of equal value.
...
Outside, I run into a rare Le Pen voter, stepping out of his battered Renault. Why did his candidate lose, I ask him. "I blame the mainstream media. All the way through this campaign they have reported fairly, exposing Fillon's strange financial dealings, giving due weight to the charges against Le Pen and, finally, refusing to go stark raving insane over an extremely mundane dump of Macron's emails on the eve of polling day."
...
"And I blame the system! Why do we not have something like the electoral college, where the votes of a thousand angry white people in a few towns have a wildly disproportionate effect on the result. It is abominable."
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Old 8th May 2017, 07:53 AM   #337
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
"The Tory party "defeated" populism by embracing it and embodying it. Macron defeated it by...defeating it. What a difference."

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/st...22820663562241
Yes, that's a very good point that's worth stressing. The instinctive reaction of many politicians and political parties in response of the populist threat, instead of standing up to it. In the 13 years now that Wilders is active with his party in the Netherlands, I've seen the discourse change and politicians of all stripes now utter things about immigrants that in the 1980s, Janmaat would have been heckled for or even criminally prosecuted.

I applaud Macron for taking an unabashed pro-EU and pro-pluralism stance. And as someone on the far left of the political spectrum, I'm really disappointed in Mélenchon's agenda here and his refusal to back Macron really takes the cake.
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Old 8th May 2017, 08:16 AM   #338
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Nice piece of satire in the New Statesman: Deep in Macron Country
Excellent. Excellente even.
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Old 8th May 2017, 12:00 PM   #339
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
With the choices you have it's not a madness of your electorate. Most of UK can vote either far left UKIP, right UKIP, far right UKIP or LibDems, who are excommunucated.

With choices like those the electorate is powerless, just ask the Russians.

McHrozni
That the centrists seem to be powerless in the UK is not a good sign.

Sad that the LibDems so totally screwed up their chance to be that.
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Old 8th May 2017, 05:58 PM   #340
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Je suis un français!

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Old 9th May 2017, 12:57 PM   #341
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Now come the hard part for Macron:actuallygetting badly need reforms to make France Economically competitive.
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Old 9th May 2017, 01:46 PM   #342
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
That the centrists seem to be powerless in the UK is not a good sign.

Sad that the LibDems so totally screwed up their chance to be that.
They aren't powerless so much as very scarce. And what's so good about being centrist anyway? What's the middle ground between right and wrong? Good and bad?
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Old 9th May 2017, 02:49 PM   #343
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
They aren't powerless so much as very scarce. And what's so good about being centrist anyway? What's the middle ground between right and wrong? Good and bad?
Because being left is not being automatically right! And for many things there is more then one correct answer.

You have setup false dichotomy as being either "left and correctly" or being wrong. Beware of logical fallacies and wrong arguments,. Your post is very good example for that. (Also often cause why things go so wrong...)
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Old 9th May 2017, 11:23 PM   #344
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As a French friend put it, Macron's heart is somewhat to the left, and his brain somewhat to the right.

A combination that can lead to the needed reforms of the French outdated social systems.

Macron needs a parliamentary majority for starters though, and it is far from certain he will have it.
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Old 9th May 2017, 11:30 PM   #345
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Now come the hard part for Macron:actuallygetting badly need reforms to make France Economically competitive.
Legislative elections first. If he manages to get a majority it should be comparatively easy, assuming he puts France before his reelection and doesn't play it safe.

The seat projection from OpinionWay sees Macron getting 249-286 seats out of 535 in metropolitan France, there are another 37 seats to take in Corsica and overseas territories. He needs 280 seats from all sources for a majority.

The three other polls Wiki has see Macron at either holding steady or gaining momentum.

It looks doable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French...#Opinion_polls

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Old 30th May 2017, 11:30 AM   #346
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President Macron might have hit nerve during his yesterday press conference with V. Putin. A Belgian newspaper reports that Xenia Fedorova, RT’s CEO has declared that “President Macron sets the stage for a dangerous precedent that threatens both freedom of expression and journalism as a whole”, no less (source : http://www.lesoir.be/1513625/article...liberte-presse )

If I remember well having a journalist killed in France is something exceptional (even taking into account the terror attack against Charlie Hebdo in January 2015), while it looks as common practice in Russia : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...en_conflict.29

I think Mrs. Fedorova should have kept silent…
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Old 1st June 2017, 11:00 AM   #347
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
President Macron might have hit nerve during his yesterday press conference with V. Putin. A Belgian newspaper reports that Xenia Fedorova, RT’s CEO has declared that “President Macron sets the stage for a dangerous precedent that threatens both freedom of expression and journalism as a whole”, no less (source : http://www.lesoir.be/1513625/article...liberte-presse )

If I remember well having a journalist killed in France is something exceptional (even taking into account the terror attack against Charlie Hebdo in January 2015), while it looks as common practice in Russia : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...en_conflict.29

I think Mrs. Fedorova should have kept silent…
Macron showed during the campaign how to effectively tackle populism. He now shows how to effectively engage Putin.
Hope progressive politicians in some other Western countries are watching and learning.
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