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Tags donald trump , US-North Korea relations

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Old 11th April 2017, 06:19 AM   #41
Tony Stark
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
NK has several missile issues.
1) Current range cannot hit USA mainland.
2) They don't have a small enough nuke for an ICBM.
3) Their guidance isn't that accurate.

Even if NK surmounts all those issue and launches a nuke at the US, they have to know it's suicide. They don't have enough firepower to dent our retaliation capabilities and if they hit the US mainland I think we would retaliate disproportionately.
Yeah, I really don't think there is any reason to believe that Kim is crazy. He's evil sure, but his goal is to stay in power not commit suicide by nuking America. He wants nukes for the same reason every other country that has them does: as a deterrent.
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Old 11th April 2017, 06:26 AM   #42
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If Trump tried to reignite anything on the Korean peninsula, it would not be North Korea who would retaliate nor China. It would be South Korea, because they have the most to lose the fastest.

Plus I suspect all branches of the US military would not look kindly on what they would consider "patently ridiculous" if not "illegal" orders from the Trump desk in Mar-a-Lago. Certainly there would be questions asked and lengthy delays while "clarification" was sought...continually.
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Old 11th April 2017, 06:30 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Post Syria air strikes, that whackey Korean will stop his blustering.

We win, by speaking crazy talk AND carrying a big stick.

It's "drunken boxing", where you pretend you are furiously out of control in an attempt to lead your opponent to think you are out of control, and thus you will make a mistake that can be taken advantage of.

NK has been doing this for decades.
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Old 11th April 2017, 06:35 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
Yeah, I really don't think there is any reason to believe that Kim is crazy. He's evil sure, but his goal is to stay in power not commit suicide by nuking America. He wants nukes for the same reason every other country that has them does: as a deterrent.
I think Kim is totally nuts and if backed into a corner, he will use his nukes in whatever way he can. NK has always seemed to like pushing boundaries and at some point they may push too far.
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Old 11th April 2017, 06:39 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Yea but that was really only one guy Vasili Arkhipov. If he agreed with the captain they would have used nuclear torpedoes on the american fleet.
Right, it's simultaneously somewhat reassuring and completely terrifying: it shows that disaster can be averted, but that individuals and their decisions are essential.

We are now escalating our way to a showdown where we rely upon the knowledge and decision making skills of Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. Two *********** ********ters playing chicken.
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Old 11th April 2017, 06:41 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by Beerina View Post
It's "drunken boxing", where you pretend you are furiously out of control in an attempt to lead your opponent to think you are out of control, and thus you will make a mistake that can be taken advantage of.

NK has been doing this for decades.
Do you seriously believe this? I get it's fun to argue on the forums, but do you sincerely think there was strategy behind Trump's order to launch cruise missiles?

NK has never had a partner willing to respond with equal levels of stupidity. That includes the bellicose Bush administration who included them in the Axis of Evil (still stupid and funny to this day).

I have zero confidence that either side will see reason.
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Old 11th April 2017, 06:43 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Plus I suspect all branches of the US military would not look kindly on what they would consider "patently ridiculous" if not "illegal" orders from the Trump desk in Mar-a-Lago. Certainly there would be questions asked and lengthy delays while "clarification" was sought...continually.
There were and are serious questions about the constitutionality of the missile strike on Syria. The military didn't even hesitate to launch those badboys.

Maybe the significance of a bigger strike would give some folks in the Brass pause, but I don't share your confidence.
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Old 11th April 2017, 06:43 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
I think Kim is totally nuts and if backed into a corner, he will use his nukes in whatever way he can. NK has always seemed to like pushing boundaries and at some point they may push too far.
He'll use them if the US tries to take him out or something. That's kinda the whole point of having them, to make the cost of taking him out too high. Perfectly rational, though it depends on the other side being rational too. Who knows with Trump.
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Old 11th April 2017, 07:15 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
He'll use them if the US tries to take him out or something. That's kinda the whole point of having them, to make the cost of taking him out too high. Perfectly rational, though it depends on the other side being rational too. Who knows with Trump.
Being crazy doesn't exclude one making seemingly rational decisions.
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Old 11th April 2017, 07:20 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
Being crazy doesn't exclude one making seemingly rational decisions.
Also, if you sincerely believe the greatest military force in the history of the planet is about to attack, what behavior is rational?

Jong-un is clearly a madman, but we're acting to constrain his available choices, making him all the more dangerous. Let us not forget that 80-90% of this country thought it was rational and correct to invade Iraq based on an assumption that they had weapons they could potentially pass to terrorists who could potentially get them to the us via rowboat, or some nonsense.

The threat to NK is real. How would we behave if we were similarly threatened?
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Old 11th April 2017, 07:24 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by Beerina View Post
It's "drunken boxing", where you pretend you are furiously out of control in an attempt to lead your opponent to think you are out of control, and thus you will make a mistake that can be taken advantage of.

NK has been doing this for decades.
Sure the problem is that they spend all day hearing about how invincible they are, so how do you know if he can even get a remotely objective view of what is really happening?
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Old 11th April 2017, 08:59 AM   #52
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Short answer: yes.

Tweet from today: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...7718248361986?

"North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A."
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Old 11th April 2017, 09:01 AM   #53
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Korea's been looking for trouble for decades. Just let them stew. No need to poke the insane dictator to see what happens.
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Old 11th April 2017, 09:32 AM   #54
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It seems the most prudent thing would be to wait. I don't know if prudent is in Trump's vocabulary.

MSN

Quote:
North Korean elites have turned their backs on leader Kim Jong Un and dissent is on the rise, according to a recent defector who was formerly a Pyongyang's deputy ambassador to the U.K.
This defector has indicated that change needs to come from the elites and others in North Korea. The question is, can they do it before being purged.

New York Times

Quote:
The best way to force change in the isolated North, he continued, is to disseminate outside information there to help ordinary citizens eventually rebel. South Korean TV dramas and movies smuggled from China are already popular in the North, he said.
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Old 11th April 2017, 09:59 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
There were nuclear missiles 90 miles off our coast housed in a hostile country with the backing of a superpower, and war was forestalled. Nothing is inevitable.

Now, if Trump had been president then....
Even with JFK, we came too damn close. I understand that JFK intended to invade Cuba if negotiations failed, and Russia intended to use tactical nukes if American troops invaded.

Once that happened, it's hard to imagine any scenario other than total nuclear war.
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Old 11th April 2017, 10:07 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by CORed View Post
Even with JFK, we came too damn close. I understand that JFK intended to invade Cuba if negotiations failed, and Russia intended to use tactical nukes if American troops invaded.

Once that happened, it's hard to imagine any scenario other than total nuclear war.
People like Curtis LeMay didn't even want to bother with negotiations. They thought JFK was weak for not immediately bombing the **** out of Cuba. Good thing he didn't listen to them.
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Old 11th April 2017, 10:37 AM   #57
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Even in the best case, a new Korean war would be a nightmare for the next 50years at the least: compared to what would need to happen between NK and SK, the difference between West and East in the German reunification was barely noticeable.
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Old 11th April 2017, 11:01 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
Also, if you sincerely believe the greatest military force in the history of the planet is about to attack, what behavior is rational?

Jong-un is clearly a madman, but we're acting to constrain his available choices, making him all the more dangerous. Let us not forget that 80-90% of this country thought it was rational and correct to invade Iraq based on an assumption that they had weapons they could potentially pass to terrorists who could potentially get them to the us via rowboat, or some nonsense.

The threat to NK is real. How would we behave if we were similarly threatened?
I despise Trump, but when you begin to support North Korea you have just lost me.
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Old 11th April 2017, 11:07 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I despise Trump, but when you begin to support North Korea you have just lost me.
?

How is that "support" for North Korea?

The point is that "sane" nations, like us, make really terrible decisions when we're scared. Knowing that, how do you think North Korea is going to behave when they're afraid.

And unlike Iraq to the US, the US is absolutely a threat to North Korea.

Trump people seem to have this view of the world where all you need to do is get in some country's face and pound your chest and they will back down. I'm suggesting that may not yield optimal outcomes when tried with North Korea.
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Old 11th April 2017, 11:13 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by Toontown View Post
Well, those nightmares are hardly going to become more mellow with age, are they.

If you were trying to convince Trump to take preemptive action, you might just about have him convinced.
Well, hopefully not.

Their strategy seems to be deterrent rather than aggressive.

A pre-emptive action from a foreign aggressor such as the USA would be the only scenario where they're actually used.
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Old 11th April 2017, 11:40 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I despise Trump, but when you begin to support North Korea you have just lost me.
I'll have to echo TW's question. How was that a support for NK?
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Old 11th April 2017, 11:53 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
I'll have to echo TW's question. How was that a support for NK?
If anything, Trump's Foreign Policy is more Pro-DPRK than predecessors, since containment is achieved through economic and diplomatic approaches, and he's gutting the State Department and scrapping international economic treaties.

Since military is not a 'real' option, he's proposing less pressure on DPRK than previous administrations.
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Old 11th April 2017, 02:41 PM   #63
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Quote:
North Korea has threatened “catastrophic consequences” against the US, including a nuclear strike, as tensions continue to escalate at the North Korean border.
http://theslot.jezebel.com/north-kor...rov-1794219594

What is this ****, seriously? Why are we going down this path?
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Old 11th April 2017, 03:16 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
http://theslot.jezebel.com/north-kor...rov-1794219594

What is this ****, seriously? Why are we going down this path?
I've always thought the NK was nothing but talk. I hope that's all it is this time too, but I'm starting to worry a little.

Trump is no where near as smart as he thinks he is and very well could cause a major war. This is one of the very reasons Trump is not qualified to be president.
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Old 11th April 2017, 03:20 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
http://theslot.jezebel.com/north-kor...rov-1794219594

What is this ****, seriously? Why are we going down this path?
North Korea makes threats like this all the time, regardless of who is in the White House.
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Old 11th April 2017, 03:33 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
North Korea makes threats like this all the time, regardless of who is in the White House.
Usually our side isn't lobbing threats back.

I hope you're right. I just don't share your confidence.
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Old 11th April 2017, 03:58 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
North Korea makes threats like this all the time, regardless of who is in the White House.
When was the last time we had a leader that was every bit as loony as Kim?

Who exactly has North Korea hurt besides themselves anyway? Why are they a priority?
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Old 11th April 2017, 04:07 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
When was the last time we had a leader that was every bit as loony as Kim?
Back when his father, worlds best golfer, was still alive.

Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
Who exactly has North Korea hurt besides themselves anyway? Why are they a priority?
Anyone who belongs to Club Nuclear gets priority.
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Old 11th April 2017, 04:12 PM   #69
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http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/10/politi...carrier-korea/


"China understands how dangerous North Korea's nuclear program has become and agrees action must be taken to stop it, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Sunday, as the US sent an aircraft carrier strike group toward the Korean Peninsula.

"I think even China is beginning to recognize that this presents a threat to even China's interests," Tillerson said during an interview on CBS' "Face the Nation" program Sunday."

If it is true that the scales are falling from Chinese eyes, then perhaps NK should be more concerned about the 150,000 Chinese troops on NK's northern border, reportedly including a heavy mechanized army group and a rapid strike force.

I don't think NK is in imminent danger of combined attack from China, South Korea, and the U.S., but there could be a pointed message imbedded in all this massing of military force around NK.
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Old 11th April 2017, 04:19 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
Anyone who belongs to Club Nuclear gets priority.
Like Britian, China, India?
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Old 11th April 2017, 04:23 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
Like Britian, China, India?
Anyone, if they make noise that they might use their nukes.
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Old 11th April 2017, 04:34 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
When was the last time we had a leader that was every bit as loony as Kim?

Who exactly has North Korea hurt besides themselves anyway? Why are they a priority?
I don't know about 'priority,' but their impact extends beyond their borders.
Counterfeiting foreign currency, for example.
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Old 11th April 2017, 04:53 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
Well, hopefully not.

Their strategy seems to be deterrent rather than aggressive.

A pre-emptive action from a foreign aggressor such as the USA would be the only scenario where they're actually used.
Your soothing assurances flatly contradict the attempted and announced intentions of the NK leadership.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-31001251

'The big prize: reunification': Supporter Kim Myong Chol

Kim Myong Chol was born and lives in Japan, but is ethnically Korean.
He has been to North Korea more than 20 times in the last 40 years, and says he has met representatives of the country's elite as well as, in his words, the two Kims - Kim Jong-un's father and grandfather. He hasn't met the third Kim yet, but praises his "guts, determination and intelligence".

Some describe Kim Myong Chol as an unofficial spokesman for the leader.

"What makes him different from the two Kims," he argues, "is that he will succeed in getting what he wants. The reunification of Korea, without foreign interference. Eventually the US will leave Korea and the Korean peninsula will be re-unified.

"[The US will] realise the futility, the senselessness of American military presence in Korea. North Korea [will] become too strong for America. We have now nuclear weapons, we have intercontinental ballistic missiles, we have hydrogen bomb.

"We are victims of American aggression. North Korea is a most sanctioned country. Brutalised, criminalised, isolated by America."


Note the trademark hypocrisy. In one breath he speaks hungrily of swallowing and digesting the peaceful, democratic SK, as it tried to do in 1950. Then, in the next breath, he portrays NK as the victim of aggression.

The usefulness of a "deterrent" nuclear arsenal in the accomplishment of the often-stated goal of swallowing and digesting SK should be obvious.
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Old 11th April 2017, 05:34 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
Anyone, if they make noise that they might use their nukes.
I need to know exactly what they have done to incur the wrath of America.
It's got to be more than just posturing. We are the aggressors here.
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Old 11th April 2017, 05:48 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post

(Can any navy folk tell me how close that guess was? 30,000 for 3 battle groups?)
Not that close and not that far.

A carrier has (with an embarked air wing) about 5500 people. Nowadays, the battle groups are not that big. Five escorts @ ~ 350 per is another 1650ish, add an oiler/stores ship another 4-500 gives you 7500ish ... so 22,000+ if you have three battle groups.
But "battle group" is a notional quantity. The number of ships expands or contracts based on the mission. In a serious case of shooting, the 30,000 figure isn't that bad of a guess.
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Old 11th April 2017, 06:10 PM   #76
Roger Ramjets
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Originally Posted by TraneWreck View Post
Jong-un is clearly a madman,
Evidence?
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Old 11th April 2017, 06:29 PM   #77
TraneWreck
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Evidence?
Uh...

He had his ex girlfriend and a bunch of pop singers executed for violating pornography laws:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ing-squad.html

Executed his education minister for not sitting properly:

https://www.theatlantic.com/news/arc...-korea/498149/

Executions are evidently a constant.

Let's not forget his dad invented the cheeseburger. He wanted to raise giant rabbits to end the famine, so he bought 6 from a seller. Before the seller could get to NK to teach them how to breed the rabbits, Jong-il had eaten all 6 of them.

Jong-un jailed an official for not sufficiently grieving at his father's funeral.

He expresses all the classic murderous paranoia of the worst dictators. I mean, what are you looking for?

Hell, thinking it's a good idea to antagonize the most powerful military in the history of the planet is pretty nuts. He's just relying on the (previously safe) bet that we care more about lives in South Korea than we're interested in shutting him up.
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Old 11th April 2017, 06:43 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
Yeah, I really don't think there is any reason to believe that Kim is crazy. He's evil sure, but his goal is to stay in power not commit suicide by nuking America. He wants nukes for the same reason every other country that has them does: as a deterrent.

Wow. I can't wait to see how your viewpoint and the actual situation will develop alongside each other.
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Old 11th April 2017, 07:13 PM   #79
Darth Rotor
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Originally Posted by John Jones View Post
Wow. I can't wait to see how your viewpoint and the actual situation will develop alongside each other.
Actually, I think Tony's on to something. The aim of the Kims is, and has always been, to stay in power. I offer you a link by someone a bit brighter than I who explains it very well. Go here and scroll down to the longish post that a fella called John Schilling makes: it begins like this.

Quote:
John Schilling says:
April 2, 2017 at 10:10 pm ~new~ (snip)

I have often referred to North Korea’s nukes as the House Kim family atomics, and I’m not joking. The North Korean regime has made it abundantly clear, in its words and its actions, that their absolute number one priority is the preservation of the present regime and its uncontested rule over North Korea. If you expect them to step down from power, adopt democratic rule and stand for election, be deposed in a popular revolt or military coup, or anything along those lines, that will happen over their dead bodies, and if at all possible yours as well. Hence the nuclear missiles.

If you’re wondering whether House Kim cares about anything at all beyond the survival of House Kim, then yes, they do. They are intensely and I believe sincerely nationalistic Koreans, which means that beyond survival their priorities are, 2: maintain the absolute territorial integrity and political and economic independence of North Korea, 3: ensure that North Korea is recognized as a great regional power at least equal to South Korea or Japan, 4: provide wealth and prosperity to the North Korean people, and 5: arrange the reunification of North and South Korea under the Kim regime.
The rest of the article is pretty good, I'd recommend the whole post as a nice read on the topic.
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Last edited by Darth Rotor; 11th April 2017 at 07:19 PM.
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Old 11th April 2017, 09:55 PM   #80
jimbob
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Originally Posted by Darth Rotor View Post
Actually, I think Tony's on to something. The aim of the Kims is, and has always been, to stay in power. I offer you a link by someone a bit brighter than I who explains it very well. Go here and scroll down to the longish post that a fella called John Schilling makes: it begins like this.


The rest of the article is pretty good, I'd recommend th whole post as a nice read on the topic.
I tend to agree - Kim Jong-un is only alive as long as he's in power, he can't step down and survive unless he has a *very* carefully-chosen successor. In that case, revenge against the rest of the world might seem attractive.
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link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
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