Predction: Trump will be pardoned by Biden if he wins - Page 4

shuttlt · 8th September 2020, 08:06 AM

Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus

Just like your apparent conviction that Trump's support will never waver doesn't prove anything either. Trump blocks release of his tax returns (has been fighting tooth and nail for years, in fact), blocks evidence at the impeachment hearing,...I'm sure I'm forgetting some other things...and you don't find that indicative of a fear of revelation???? Astounding.

There might be some great revelation waiting to come out. I just think it's foolish to assume because he resists either one that there must be some Watergate tapes like secret that he is hiding. It's not as if there is a shortage of times where he was about to be destroyed by some testimony, or revelation only for it not to pan out. This time the swan could be black, but I can't imagine why one would have any confidence that it would be.

JoeMorgue · 8th September 2020, 08:13 AM

We've had so many "Okay there's no way this scandal won't finally erode Trump's support!" and "Okay there's no way this scandal won't finally erode Trump's support and this time I mean it" and "Okay there's no way this scandal won't finally erod Trump's support and this time I mean it and this time I mean it when I say I mean it" moments it's no longer funny. And the continued insistence of some "Death of a Thousand Cuts" going on behind the scenes that were going to finally start effecting Trump "any day now" never panned out either.

We have to accept that Trump's support is just coming from a fundamentally different mentality then other Presidents, even bad or evil ones. He can't be stained because he wears his dirt with such pride.

shuttlt · 8th September 2020, 08:24 AM

Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus

In the trial it won't be a bunch...it will be only twelve.

Yes, but how will those 12 people be chosen? If they are representative of the country at large you are going to have to convince the people I'm talking about to turn away from him. Jury selection is going to be very interesting if they are going to get a jury that doesn't already have strong opinions about Trump.

You still have the wider political and societal consequences if you convict him of something big and 40% of the voting public think it was political revenge. From a utilitarian point of view, I'm not sure that you wouldn't be doing more harm than good.

Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus

Everything has a breaking point when pushed too far. How far above the law do you think the presidency already is? Tax Fraud? Money Laundering? Rape? Murder? Human Trafficking? I expect even you draw the line somewhere. Where the line is drawn is therefore open to debate.

I have answered this question already upthread to another poster:

Originally Posted by shuttlt

Warrant prosecution is easy. When somebody breaks the law. Obviously we don't have a Gods eye view, so it comes down to our subjective judgement of the claims. I doubt we will agree on very much here when we are talking about Trump.

Where you draw the line, or where I draw the line is just not important to the question of whether Trump will be pardoned, or ever convicted of something significant enough to punish him for the things you think he's done. Even if our "lines" were important, the main disagreement is whether he has done these terrible crimes. If I could snap my fingers and enforce "my line", I would expect Washington to look like the rapture had happened.

shuttlt · 8th September 2020, 08:30 AM

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

He can't be stained because he wears his dirt with such pride.

There is a lot of Truth in this. If you get voted in passing yourself off as a beacon of moral probity and you get caught paying hush money to a prostitute, it's a problem. If your schtick is acting like Rodney Dangerfield, nobody is going to care. It might even make you more popular if you carry it off with the right flair.

The last 4 years has been like watching Caddyshack, or Back to School on a loop.

JoeMorgue · 8th September 2020, 08:57 AM

Okay seriously walk me through what could be in his tax returns that is going to be worse then... you know I'm sick of listing all the stuff Trump has done at this point, let's just say *Gestures widely at Trump* all of that.

Trump is a troll who gets off on seeing what he can get away with. He doesn't want us to see his tax returns because we want to see his tax return. There not being anything them any worse then all the other stuff he's done fits in just fine with his mentality.

So seriously what are we expecting to find in these tax returns? Hush money? Backdoor Russian money? The fact that his fortune is probably nowhere near as big as he wants us to think? None of that is going to matter.

JoeMorgue · 8th September 2020, 09:00 AM

Originally Posted by shuttlt

There is a lot of Truth in this. If you get voted in passing yourself off as a beacon of moral probity and you get caught paying hush money to a prostitute, it's a problem. If your schtick is acting like Rodney Dangerfield, nobody is going to care. It might even make you more popular if you carry it off with the right flair.

Again I don't know how clearer the Trumpers can make their case for "Trump has no standards, therefore he cannot commit the unforgivable sin of having standards but not living up to them."

The only sin the Trumpers recognize is having a standard you don't live up a strawman version of 100% of the time and the way they manifest this is to worship someone who has no standards at all. You can be evil. You cannot be pretentious, hypocritical, dramatic, "not as smart as you think you are" or anything like that.

shuttlt · 8th September 2020, 09:17 AM

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Trump is a troll who gets off on seeing what he can get away with. He doesn't want us to see his tax returns because we want to see his tax return. There not being anything them any worse then all the other stuff he's done fits in just fine with his mentality.

I would agree that that is a possibility. You then have an extended version of that that if they are built up and built up, and there isn't any huge revelation hidden there, then he can add it to the list of damp squibs. It could also be that even if his tax returns are no worse than any other billionaire property mogul, that opinion writers will be able to write articles about how shocked they are regardless of whether there is actually anything shocking. There is no benefit to handing any of this info over if he doesn't have to.

Segnosaur · 8th September 2020, 09:28 AM

Originally Posted by shuttlt

There might be some great revelation waiting to come out. I just think it's foolish to assume because he resists either one that there must be some Watergate tapes like secret that he is hiding.

Not sure why you think its "foolish". I think there are significant reasons to believe his tax returns/financial details are hiding something serious, either illegal activities or politically damaging.

We have for example testimony from Cohen (who worked with Trump for over a decade) and from investigations from the NY Times (that may have been based on inside knowledge from the Trump family) that he engaged in some sketchy activities that could be considered fraudulent... things like overvaluing property in order to obtain bank loans.

We also know that Trump has broken rules regarding charitable organizations.... it would not be that much of a step up for him to violate tax laws or other such rules.

And if there really was nothing damaging in Trump's financials, why didn't he release them? It is costing him a lot... both money-wise (those lawyers don't come cheap) and politically. If there were really nothing in his tax returns, he could have just released them, then said "ha ha! See? I told you I was clean!". Would have saved him a lot in legal fees and would have given him something to brag about. But he didn't do that... He's fighting tooth and nail to keep things hidden.

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It's not as if there is a shortage of times where he was about to be destroyed by some testimony, or revelation only for it not to pan out. This time the swan could be black, but I can't imagine why one would have any confidence that it would be.

There are 2 issues here... what could be damaging to Trump legally (fines and/or jail time) and what could be damaging politcaly.

When it comes to the legal issues.... Society is often quite lax when it comes to prosecuting financial crimes. For example, Manafort's was charged with crimes that went back roughly a decade, and may never have been charged if he had not gotten involved with Trump (since that helped draw attention to his activities). Trump is likely in the same boat... engaging in various types of fraud, and his crimes not getting punished because financial crimes are not often investigated. But now that he's president, people actually want to examine his (likely) illegal activities, and he's fighting to keep stuff hidden.

As for politically... he has only fought one election, and that was against an unpopular Democrat. Its a little early to say that he's invulnerable to certain revelations. Yes, there are hardcore Trump supporters who will vote for him regardless. Yes, Republican congress critters are almost all boot-lickers who enable the worst of Trump's excesses. But, you can't win an election just on the hardcore backers... you need at least some moderates/undecideds. Trump seems to be in a serious political battle... trailing Biden in multiple polls, and if things don't change he could be slaughtered in the next election (bringing the Republican party down with him). If his taxes reveal he is actually broke, or that there are russian ties, or that he has broken the law, then it may cause some of those moderates he needs to win to sit out the election.

shuttlt · 8th September 2020, 09:45 AM

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Again I don't know how clearer the Trumpers can make their case for "Trump has no standards, therefore he cannot commit the unforgivable sin of having standards but not living up to them."

I don't think that is really true. It would have to be something that would have made Rodney Dangerfield unlikable to people who find Rodney Dangerfield likable.

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

The only sin the Trumpers recognize is having a standard you don't live up a strawman version of 100% of the time and the way they manifest this is to worship someone who has no standards at all. You can be evil. You cannot be pretentious, hypocritical, dramatic, "not as smart as you think you are" or anything like that.

This is where we differ. Take the prototypical christian conservative politician of the 80s who goes on and on about the evils of homosexuality and is chasing twinks when nobody is looking. He only spends a couple of hours licking rohypnol off his catamite on Sundays when his wife thinks he's helping out at a church group. 99% of the time he lives up to his public principles.... it's ridiculous that people call him a hypocrite. Jeffrey Dahmer wasn't murdering anybody 99.999% of the time, yet everybody focuses on the insignificant proportion of his life when he did. Kamala spent a trivial amount of her life smoking marijuana, putting people away for possession of marijuana, or laughing about it. The % of your day you spend on these things isn't that important.

shuttlt · 8th September 2020, 10:20 AM

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

Not sure why you think its "foolish". I think there are significant reasons to believe his tax returns/financial details are hiding something serious, either illegal activities or politically damaging.

I've heard this too many times over the past 4 years. Either he is phenomenally lucky, or some people are very bad at predicting when he's going to be wiped out.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

We have for example testimony from Cohen (who worked with Trump for over a decade) and from investigations from the NY Times (that may have been based on inside knowledge from the Trump family) that he engaged in some sketchy activities that could be considered fraudulent... things like overvaluing property in order to obtain bank loans.

It doesn't matter. How many times has somebody from a respectable establishment newspaper, or some disgruntled former official told us that their sources say they have the smoking gun and a week from now Trump will be finished, and then it doesn't pan out. What is special about this time?

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

We also know that Trump has broken rules regarding charitable organizations.... it would not be that much of a step up for him to violate tax laws or other such rules.

Yes, but the charity thing didn't have him carted off in handcuffs, or stop him being president. I'm not saying there is no possibility of them getting him, but past form on this doesn't seem very encouraging.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

And if there really was nothing damaging in Trump's financials, why didn't he release them? It is costing him a lot... both money-wise (those lawyers don't come cheap) and politically.

I doubt those lawyers cost him that much, and is it really costing him politically? People seem much more concerned about riots and covid.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

If there were really nothing in his tax returns, he could have just released them, then said "ha ha! See? I told you I was clean!".

No matter what is in his tax returns, it seems to me there will be loose threads and details to speculate over that will fill as many newspaper front pages, and talking head segments as the Democrat media choose to throw at it. Meanwhile "there was nothing there" can be said in a sentence. If he has some cunning way to play the reveal that favours him and ends up looking like the Rachel Maddow "I have his Taxes" gaff, then he's going to be waiting to the right moment to do it. Why waste a "ha ha! See? I told you I was clean!"?

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

Would have saved him a lot in legal fees and would have given him something to brag about.

I doubt the legal fees are keeping him up at night. Right now, why would he want to give people something to talk about other than the rioting?

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

But he didn't do that... He's fighting tooth and nail to keep things hidden.

Sure, he's not a naive innocent who believes he is being asked for his tax returns by people with no motivation for getting access to them other than to double check the IRS's homework. Of course he isn't cooperating.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

There are 2 issues here... what could be damaging to Trump legally (fines and/or jail time) and what could be damaging politcaly.

Indeed. Turning the story off the riots would damage him politically at the moment regardless of whether there was anything damaging in the tax returns.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

When it comes to the legal issues.... Society is often quite lax when it comes to prosecuting financial crimes. For example, Manafort's was charged with crimes that went back roughly a decade, and may never have been charged if he had not gotten involved with Trump (since that helped draw attention to his activities). Trump is likely in the same boat... engaging in various types of fraud, and his crimes not getting punished because financial crimes are not often investigated. But now that he's president, people actually want to examine his (likely) illegal activities, and he's fighting to keep stuff hidden.

All perfectly possible.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

As for politically... he has only fought one election, and that was against an unpopular Democrat. Its a little early to say that he's invulnerable to certain revelations. Yes, there are hardcore Trump supporters who will vote for him regardless. Yes, Republican congress critters are almost all boot-lickers who enable the worst of Trump's excesses. But, you can't win an election just on the hardcore backers... you need at least some moderates/undecideds. Trump seems to be in a serious political battle... trailing Biden in multiple polls, and if things don't change he could be slaughtered in the next election (bringing the Republican party down with him). If his taxes reveal he is actually broke, or that there are russian ties, or that he has broken the law, then it may cause some of those moderates he needs to win to sit out the election.

Spartan quotes aside, I agree that the real consequence of any significance that is in play is the loss of the election.

shuttlt · 8th September 2020, 11:37 AM

Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus

I think you're missing the point. It's not that anyone should judge another based on the percent of time doing good vs percent doing bad, it's that Trumpkins are always eager to point the finger at others for the same flaws that Trump himself manifests in ways that are magnitudes worse.

It's a cult, simple as that.

We'll have to agree to disagree about "magnitudes worse" and what precisely he is guilty of. The point is, Trump's case for the Presidency doesn't depend on a claim of personal morality. The Democrat's case is based around Trump being too immoral to be President, hence if they have a scandal they look like hypocrites in a way Trump can't.

Segnosaur · 8th September 2020, 11:52 AM

Originally Posted by shuttlt

Quote:

Not sure why you think its "foolish". I think there are significant reasons to believe his tax returns/financial details are hiding something serious, either illegal activities or politically damaging.

I've heard this too many times over the past 4 years.

Trump has basically been protected (at least against legal repercussions) for the past 4 years, partly by the position of being president, partly by a corrupt department of justice.

You do realize he is president, don't you, and that the DOJ has a rule against having criminal proceedings against a sitting president.

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Either he is phenomenally lucky, or some people are very bad at predicting when he's going to be wiped out.

Once again... Trump does not have to be 'phenomenally lucky'.... The U.S. is often lax when it comes to prosecuting financial crimes. (As I had pointed out before, people like Manafort went over a decade before they attracted unwanted attention.) That Trump would last years/decades without fraud being investigated is pretty much par for the course.

Quote:

We have for example testimony from Cohen (who worked with Trump for over a decade) and from investigations from the NY Times (that may have been based on inside knowledge from the Trump family) that he engaged in some sketchy activities that could be considered fraudulent... things like overvaluing property in order to obtain bank loans.

It doesn't matter. How many times has somebody from a respectable establishment newspaper, or some disgruntled former official told us that their sources say they have the smoking gun and a week from now Trump will be finished, and then it doesn't pan out.

And we've also had cases where people have been arrested after various investigations and 'smoking guns'.

Look at Bernie Maddoff... suspicious were raised about his activities as far back as 1999... it did take years for the feds to actually prosecute, but it did happen.

Trump likely has skeletons in his closet.... things that he could probably get charged for and get subject to either fines or jail time.

By the way, you seem to be confusing 2 different issues here: Whether there is something potentially damaging in his financial statements (which evidence suggests there is) and whether he is (or might) get punished for it.

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What is special about this time?

Well for one, unlike his career pre-politics, he's drawn unwanted attention to himself.

And two, unlike the past 4 years, there is a significant chance that he will find himself without the protection afforded to being a sitting president.

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Yes, but the charity thing didn't have him carted off in handcuffs...

No it didn't. But it did cost him a lot of money. However, the penalties for some of the other types of fraud he was engaged in can have some serious penalties. Remember, Cohen ended up going to jail, for engaging in some of the same crimes Trump has engaged in. If Cohen can go to jail for those crimes, in theory Trump could as well.

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or stop him being president.

Which is irrelevant, since Trump has been protected by the DOJ (something that may possibly end in November) and boot-licking republican congress-critters (who won't be able to do much to help once he is out of office.)

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And if there really was nothing damaging in Trump's financials, why didn't he release them? It is costing him a lot... both money-wise (those lawyers don't come cheap) and politically.

I doubt those lawyers cost him that much

Trump can be notoriously cheap. We are talking about a guy who used Trump foundation charity funds to pay for his son's boy scout fees.

And you might want to ask yourself... If Trump is so wealthy that the cost of some high-price lawyers isn't that important to him, why did he run the Trump U. scam? He was (as he claimed) a multi-billionaire, yet he was trying to scam people for just a few million.

My point being... if he is as cheap and/or as broke as it looks, then paying for lawyers to keep his taxes hidden would be a major outlay for him, and there must be a reason for that.

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and is it really costing him politically? People seem much more concerned about riots and covid.

Its not a major election factor, but in a close race, every vote counts. Even a few hundred votes here and there from voters who have concerns over integrity in a key swing state could mean the difference between winning and losing an election.

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Sure, he's not a naive innocent who believes he is being asked for his tax returns by people with no motivation for getting access to them other than to double check the IRS's homework. Of course he isn't cooperating.

Other presidential candidates have released their tax returns, despite the chance that the opposition might have their own motivations. Clinton did. Obama did. Bush Jr. did. Yet Trump hasn't. You asked the question before "what's different/what's changed". Well, ask yourself the same question now... "what's different with Trump".

shuttlt · 8th September 2020, 11:56 AM

Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus

Have you considered the possibility that losing the election may break the spell and result in a snowball of mounting disapproval? Especially if he melts down into endless bitching and whining about what he's entitled to.

All things are possible. I think given the number of variables, no predictions of what is going to happen that far out are worth much. That said, I think when he goes, he will go more gracefully than you think.

Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus

I think that's absolutely worthy of consideration.

Things change. Surely you've seen enough to know that. While I admit surprise at the stability of his approval, I have confidence that this cult of personality will inevitably crash, eventually.

Sure, things change, but aren't we getting close to the gamblers fallacy here? Given the effort that has gone in to finding mud to throw at him, what reason is there to think there is some killing blow waiting out there that wasn't used in 2016, didn't come out in Russiagate, didn't come out during impeachment, wasn't dredged up in some sordid back alley by Avenatti, hasn't been leaked by anybody to MSNBC? Are we thinking they have held on to something all this time, or that they fluked it and just like how your keys are always in the last pocket you check.... somehow they only recently found Trumps final horcrux?

I think you are relying on Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns". The world is a chaotic place, so it's possible. We'll find out in October, I guess.

Segnosaur · 8th September 2020, 12:09 PM

Originally Posted by shuttlt

We'll have to agree to disagree about "magnitudes worse" and what precisely he is guilty of.

A partial list of some of the potential crimes that Trump has engaged in (that could lead to jail time and/or major fines):

- Violation of election spending laws (e.g. stormy daniels payments)
- Bank fraud (overestimating value of property to get loans)
- Tax fraud (underestimating property values for tax purposes)
- Money Laundering (on behalf of Russian interests)
- Perjury (lying on statements made to Mueller)
- Bribery (Ukraine incident)

Some of these are related to his political career (e.g. spending laws, perjury), others predate the 2016 election. But all of them could in theory lead to jail time.

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The point is, Trump's case for the Presidency doesn't depend on a claim of personal morality.

First of all, we're not just talking about the 'case for the presidency'. The purpose of this thread was to talk about Biden pardoning Trump for various crimes (post presidency).

And secondly, remember that Trump himself has claimed innocence with respect to his various crimes.

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The Democrat's case is based around Trump being too immoral to be President, hence if they have a scandal they look like hypocrites in a way Trump can't.

Its not just Trump's immorality, its also his incompetence.

Of course, as we have pointed out, the top if this thread is whether Biden will pardon Trump for these (and other) crimes.

shuttlt · 8th September 2020, 12:18 PM

Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus

Honestly, I wouldn't call it mere disagreement. When it comes to, for example, honesty and frequency of lying, if you think he is not magnitudes worse compared with other politicians, we don't disagree. You are simply wrong. It is not a matter of opinion.

There is no objective way of quantifying lies. Anybody who claims to put a number to one candidates lies vs another is being a dishonest, partisan hack.

Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus

No, the point is that Trump's base hold the opposition responsible for their immoral acts (such as Bill Clinton and women, or Obama's alleged lies about ACA) while giving Trump a pass for more egregious violations of that same morality. It's willfully blind hypocrisy.

Your side is the golf club establishment, Trump is Rodney Dangerfield. He outrages you. Keeping a list of all the terrible things he has done in public just proves that he is uncouth and does dubious things in public that respectable people do in private. You are going up against people who think your side gin up racial hatred and allege sex crimes against people for political advantage. You don't see it like that, but that doesn't matter. Your list of the 10,000 times MSNBC says Trump has lied isn't going to impress anybody who thinks that "hands up don't shoot" is a long debunked lie, and the Democrats start riots by supporting things like that while knowing it is false.

shuttlt · 8th September 2020, 12:31 PM

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

A partial list of some of the potential crimes that Trump has engaged in (that could lead to jail time and/or major fines):

- Violation of election spending laws (e.g. stormy daniels payments)
- Bank fraud (overestimating value of property to get loans)
- Tax fraud (underestimating property values for tax purposes)
- Money Laundering (on behalf of Russian interests)
- Perjury (lying on statements made to Mueller)
- Bribery (Ukraine incident)

I go back to my IF post. People have been claiming that this kind of stuff is going to finish him and he is going to jail since what feels like forever. Either it comes out in the next few weeks, or they don't have it. As for going after him out of office... 99% of the point of going after him will evaporate the moment he is out.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

Some of these are related to his political career (e.g. spending laws, perjury), others predate the 2016 election. But all of them could in theory lead to jail time.

In theory isn't the argument.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

First of all, we're not just talking about the 'case for the presidency'. The purpose of this thread was to talk about Biden pardoning Trump for various crimes (post presidency).

I think that is related in the sense that his popularity isn't based on being a choirboy, and that I think it is going to be very hard to prosecute him while he is popular.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

And secondly, remember that Trump himself has claimed innocence with respect to his various crimes.

Of course he has. He's hardly going to say "why certainly I violated election law". Why would he?

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

Its not just Trump's immorality, its also his incompetence.

I wish that I was as resilient to the consequences of my incompetence as Trump.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

Of course, as we have pointed out, the top if this thread is whether Biden will pardon Trump for these (and other) crimes.

I go back to saying that the main reason for doing that would be if it was politically convenient for Biden to do it. If he pardons him, it is because there is no political will to prosecute him. Without political will to prosecute him, I don't think he will be prosecuted.

Segnosaur · 8th September 2020, 12:57 PM

Originally Posted by shuttlt

Quote:

A partial list of some of the potential crimes that Trump has engaged in (that could lead to jail time and/or major fines):

- Violation of election spending laws (e.g. stormy daniels payments)
- Bank fraud (overestimating value of property to get loans)
- Tax fraud (underestimating property values for tax purposes)
- Money Laundering (on behalf of Russian interests)
- Perjury (lying on statements made to Mueller)
- Bribery (Ukraine incident)

I go back to my IF post. People have been claiming that this kind of stuff is going to finish him and he is going to jail since what feels like forever.

I doubt anyone here expected he would be arrested while he was still acting as president. If he were to be prosecuted/jailed, it would have been after his term was done.

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Either it comes out in the next few weeks, or they don't have it.

Ummmm... no.

It takes time to gather evidence (especially given Trump's attempts to block the release of his tax returns). Plus the prosecutors have to decide on charges, the grand jury has to act, etc. And because prosecutors normally try to keep things like this secret, I doubt anything will come out 'in the next few weeks' regardless of what they have. A more likely time frame is in early to mid-2021...

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As for going after him out of office... 99% of the point of going after him will evaporate the moment he is out.

Again, no...

Believe it or not, some prosecutors actually do believe in justice for justices sake. If Trump has been engaging in tax fraud, perjury, money laundering, etc., he deserves to be punished, not because "We want him out of office" but because what he was doing was illegal and its necessary to show that laws are to be enforced.

Quote:

First of all, we're not just talking about the 'case for the presidency'. The purpose of this thread was to talk about Biden pardoning Trump for various crimes (post presidency).

I think that is related in the sense that his popularity isn't based on being a choirboy, and that I think it is going to be very hard to prosecute him while he is popular.

It will be super easy. Barely an inconvenience.

Given the republican mind-set and Trump's activities, there is no reason to hold off on pressing charges. The republicans will have shown no remorse (i.e. no need for empathy, and the country isn't going to "heal" any faster) and it won't make a difference when it comes to their future activities.

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And secondly, remember that Trump himself has claimed innocence with respect to his various crimes.

Of course he has. He's hardly going to say "why certainly I violated election law". Why would he?

But that was the point you and others had made... Trump is "wearing his dirt proudly" (or something like that).

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I wish that I was as resilient to the consequences of my incompetence as Trump.

Its easy.. all you have to do is be born the son of a billionaire.

Roger Ramjets · 8th September 2020, 01:43 PM

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

I really want to understand what the concept of "I don't like Trump" means coming from people who defend him at every single argumentative chance.

It's very simple.

They don't like Trump because he does cringe-worthy stuff. But he has an 'R' next to his name, so they have to defend him no matter what. And there's a lot about Trump that they do like (but can't admit to in public).

Or more succinctly, they are Deplorable.

Foster Zygote · 8th September 2020, 01:53 PM

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Okay seriously walk me through what could be in his tax returns that is going to be worse then... you know I'm sick of listing all the stuff Trump has done at this point, let's just say *Gestures widely at Trump* all of that.

I agree that he feels no shame for wrongdoing. He's utterly amoral. I've watched people try to shame him by calling him out as a liar and a cheater. He smirks smugly when people bring up his misogyny and sexual assault. He can't be shamed by any of that because he actually like that about himself.

But he also has a very fragile ego. The alternative is that whatever's in those tax returns would expose him as a fake - would prove that he isn't as rich as he needs people to think he is. As a friend of mine said, you know he's got a little penis because otherwise he would have waved it at the cameras by now.

Skeptic Ginger · 8th September 2020, 06:23 PM

Well I just heard something interesting in the Cohen interview with Lester Holt: His recommendation to Trump was to quit now and have Pence pardon him for everything.

Trump might just do this if he loses the election.

Won't help for state charges, fortunately.

Sorry if this has been posted earlier.

The Great Zaganza · 8th September 2020, 06:46 PM

But if Pence does a very broad Pardon, State prosecutors might be reluctant to go after Trump, personally, and instead focus on his company; it looks petty trying to circumvent a Presidential Pardon.

Beelzebuddy · 8th September 2020, 08:10 PM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

it looks petty trying to circumvent a Presidential Pardon.

At this point I think sending the message that no one is above the law is more important than that.

Skeptic Ginger · 8th September 2020, 08:24 PM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

But if Pence does a very broad Pardon, State prosecutors might be reluctant to go after Trump, personally, and instead focus on his company; it looks petty trying to circumvent a Presidential Pardon.

Why?

I do believe you are under the false impression a POTUS pardon has some special meaning? Trump has been pulling corruption scams his whole life. Why would being elected POTUS wipe all that out?

Delvo · 8th September 2020, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by shuttlt

what reason is there to think there is some killing blow waiting out there that wasn't used in 2016, didn't come out in Russiagate, didn't come out during impeachment, wasn't dredged up in some sordid back alley by Avenatti, hasn't been leaked by anybody to MSNBC?

Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus

in the future he will not have the office of the presidency to protect him.

Also, all of those things that didn't harm him were political choices, not criminal trials or even civil suits. They're nowhere near the same kind of thing. (Especially when one's political "opponents" generally aren't even trying.) Of course, that doesn't mean anything will happen, either; it often doesn't to the rich in an oligarchy like ours. But it does mean the two things you're trying to connect have nothing at all to do with each other in any way.

Delvo · 8th September 2020, 08:55 PM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

circumvent

It would be as much "circumventing" as my eating poached eggs in upstate New York is "circumventing" my sister's dog getting his paws muddy in Idaho.

The Great Zaganza · 8th September 2020, 10:07 PM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Why?

I do believe you are under the false impression a POTUS pardon has some special meaning? Trump has been pulling corruption scams his whole life. Why would being elected POTUS wipe all that out?

Prosecutors often want to get elected to Offices. For that, they need Republican votes, too.
An indictment that seems aimed at making a former Republican President look bad (because there will almost certainly be no jail time for Trump no matter what) could lose them more support than it gains them.

The Great Zaganza · 8th September 2020, 11:08 PM

Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus

I'm not so sure that's really true in the state of New York (the state most likely to prosecute Trump).

it is probably true in Florida, where possibly the only really valuable Trump property sits.

ChristianProgressive · 8th September 2020, 11:12 PM

Originally Posted by shuttlt

I've heard this too many times over the past 4 years. Either he is phenomenally lucky, or some people are very bad at predicting when he's going to be wiped out.

Or our legal system and governing processes are irretrievably broken.

rockysmith76 · 9th September 2020, 04:36 AM

Originally Posted by ChristianProgressive

Or our legal system and governing processes are irretrievably broken.

By the weak kneed left would have always been soft on crime and let murderers go free. I agree it's quite sickening.

We thank you for supporting Strike 3.

rockysmith76 · 9th September 2020, 04:37 AM

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

It's very simple.

They don't like Trump because he does cringe-worthy stuff. But he has an 'R' next to his name, so they have to defend him no matter what. And there's a lot about Trump that they do like (but can't admit to in public).

Or more succinctly, they are Deplorable.

Also, both sides are equally useless, so the system is broken.

Craig4 · 9th September 2020, 05:51 AM

Originally Posted by rockysmith76

Also, both sides are equally useless, so the system is broken.

Get a grip. You think Biden and Trump are equal? Which sought the aid of foreign powers? Who got invited to pray in the church across from the White House and who had to use tear gas to stand on the sidewalk in front of it. If you're waiting for a president who hasn't made Faustian bargains, get comfortable because you'll be waiting forever. This time, there's one side who made compromises and Trump who is a filthy Russian whore.

Stacyhs · 9th September 2020, 03:49 PM

Originally Posted by rockysmith76

By the weak kneed left would have always been soft on crime and let murderers go free. I agree it's quite sickening.

We thank you for supporting Strike 3.

Shane Taylor attempted to burglarize an empty residence, no violence. He then burglarized another empty residence, no violence. Two strikes. He went to jail After getting out, he got a job, got married and had a child. No further run ins with the law. Ten years later, he was caught with $10 worth of illegal drugs. Because of the Strike 3 law, he was sentenced to 25 years to life. Yeah, that's some justice.

On the other hand, we have Trump who still won't admit the Central Park Five are innocent even after DNA proved the lone rapist-murderer who confessed done the deed.

varwoche · 10th September 2020, 10:10 PM

Originally Posted by rockysmith76

Also, both sides are equally useless, so the system is broken.

Polly want a cracker.

8th September 2020, 08:06 AM	#121
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus Just like your apparent conviction that Trump's support will never waver doesn't prove anything either. Trump blocks release of his tax returns (has been fighting tooth and nail for years, in fact), blocks evidence at the impeachment hearing,...I'm sure I'm forgetting some other things...and you don't find that indicative of a fear of revelation???? Astounding. There might be some great revelation waiting to come out. I just think it's foolish to assume because he resists either one that there must be some Watergate tapes like secret that he is hiding. It's not as if there is a shortage of times where he was about to be destroyed by some testimony, or revelation only for it not to pan out. This time the swan could be black, but I can't imagine why one would have any confidence that it would be.
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314

8th September 2020, 08:13 AM	#122
JoeMorgue Self Employed Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 30,595	We've had so many "Okay there's no way this scandal won't finally erode Trump's support!" and "Okay there's no way this scandal won't finally erode Trump's support and this time I mean it" and "Okay there's no way this scandal won't finally erod Trump's support and this time I mean it and this time I mean it when I say I mean it" moments it's no longer funny. And the continued insistence of some "Death of a Thousand Cuts" going on behind the scenes that were going to finally start effecting Trump "any day now" never panned out either. We have to accept that Trump's support is just coming from a fundamentally different mentality then other Presidents, even bad or evil ones. He can't be stained because he wears his dirt with such pride.
	__________________ Yahtzee: "You're doing that thing again where when asked a question you just discuss the philosophy of the question instead of answering the bloody question." Gabriel: "Well yeah, you see..." Yahtzee: "No. When you are asked a Yes or No question the first word out of your mouth needs to be Yes or No. Only after that have you earned the right to elaborate." Last edited by JoeMorgue; 8th September 2020 at 08:14 AM.

8th September 2020, 08:24 AM	#123
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus In the trial it won't be a bunch...it will be only twelve. Yes, but how will those 12 people be chosen? If they are representative of the country at large you are going to have to convince the people I'm talking about to turn away from him. Jury selection is going to be very interesting if they are going to get a jury that doesn't already have strong opinions about Trump. You still have the wider political and societal consequences if you convict him of something big and 40% of the voting public think it was political revenge. From a utilitarian point of view, I'm not sure that you wouldn't be doing more harm than good. Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus Everything has a breaking point when pushed too far. How far above the law do you think the presidency already is? Tax Fraud? Money Laundering? Rape? Murder? Human Trafficking? I expect even you draw the line somewhere. Where the line is drawn is therefore open to debate. I have answered this question already upthread to another poster: Originally Posted by shuttlt Warrant prosecution is easy. When somebody breaks the law. Obviously we don't have a Gods eye view, so it comes down to our subjective judgement of the claims. I doubt we will agree on very much here when we are talking about Trump. Where you draw the line, or where I draw the line is just not important to the question of whether Trump will be pardoned, or ever convicted of something significant enough to punish him for the things you think he's done. Even if our "lines" were important, the main disagreement is whether he has done these terrible crimes. If I could snap my fingers and enforce "my line", I would expect Washington to look like the rapture had happened.
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Last edited by shuttlt; 8th September 2020 at 08:36 AM.

8th September 2020, 08:30 AM	#124
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Originally Posted by JoeMorgue He can't be stained because he wears his dirt with such pride. There is a lot of Truth in this. If you get voted in passing yourself off as a beacon of moral probity and you get caught paying hush money to a prostitute, it's a problem. If your schtick is acting like Rodney Dangerfield, nobody is going to care. It might even make you more popular if you carry it off with the right flair. The last 4 years has been like watching Caddyshack, or Back to School on a loop.
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Last edited by shuttlt; 8th September 2020 at 08:31 AM.

8th September 2020, 08:57 AM	#125
JoeMorgue Self Employed Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 30,595	Okay seriously walk me through what could be in his tax returns that is going to be worse then... you know I'm sick of listing all the stuff Trump has done at this point, let's just say Gestures widely at Trump all of that. Trump is a troll who gets off on seeing what he can get away with. He doesn't want us to see his tax returns because we want to see his tax return. There not being anything them any worse then all the other stuff he's done fits in just fine with his mentality. So seriously what are we expecting to find in these tax returns? Hush money? Backdoor Russian money? The fact that his fortune is probably nowhere near as big as he wants us to think? None of that is going to matter.
	__________________ Yahtzee: "You're doing that thing again where when asked a question you just discuss the philosophy of the question instead of answering the bloody question." Gabriel: "Well yeah, you see..." Yahtzee: "No. When you are asked a Yes or No question the first word out of your mouth needs to be Yes or No. Only after that have you earned the right to elaborate."

8th September 2020, 09:00 AM	#126
JoeMorgue Self Employed Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 30,595	Originally Posted by shuttlt There is a lot of Truth in this. If you get voted in passing yourself off as a beacon of moral probity and you get caught paying hush money to a prostitute, it's a problem. If your schtick is acting like Rodney Dangerfield, nobody is going to care. It might even make you more popular if you carry it off with the right flair. Again I don't know how clearer the Trumpers can make their case for "Trump has no standards, therefore he cannot commit the unforgivable sin of having standards but not living up to them." The only sin the Trumpers recognize is having a standard you don't live up a strawman version of 100% of the time and the way they manifest this is to worship someone who has no standards at all. You can be evil. You cannot be pretentious, hypocritical, dramatic, "not as smart as you think you are" or anything like that.
	__________________ Yahtzee: "You're doing that thing again where when asked a question you just discuss the philosophy of the question instead of answering the bloody question." Gabriel: "Well yeah, you see..." Yahtzee: "No. When you are asked a Yes or No question the first word out of your mouth needs to be Yes or No. Only after that have you earned the right to elaborate." Last edited by JoeMorgue; 8th September 2020 at 09:04 AM.

8th September 2020, 09:17 AM	#127
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Originally Posted by JoeMorgue Trump is a troll who gets off on seeing what he can get away with. He doesn't want us to see his tax returns because we want to see his tax return. There not being anything them any worse then all the other stuff he's done fits in just fine with his mentality. I would agree that that is a possibility. You then have an extended version of that that if they are built up and built up, and there isn't any huge revelation hidden there, then he can add it to the list of damp squibs. It could also be that even if his tax returns are no worse than any other billionaire property mogul, that opinion writers will be able to write articles about how shocked they are regardless of whether there is actually anything shocking. There is no benefit to handing any of this info over if he doesn't have to.
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8th September 2020, 09:28 AM	#128
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 17,098	Originally Posted by shuttlt There might be some great revelation waiting to come out. I just think it's foolish to assume because he resists either one that there must be some Watergate tapes like secret that he is hiding. Not sure why you think its "foolish". I think there are significant reasons to believe his tax returns/financial details are hiding something serious, either illegal activities or politically damaging. We have for example testimony from Cohen (who worked with Trump for over a decade) and from investigations from the NY Times (that may have been based on inside knowledge from the Trump family) that he engaged in some sketchy activities that could be considered fraudulent... things like overvaluing property in order to obtain bank loans. We also know that Trump has broken rules regarding charitable organizations.... it would not be that much of a step up for him to violate tax laws or other such rules. And if there really was nothing damaging in Trump's financials, why didn't he release them? It is costing him a lot... both money-wise (those lawyers don't come cheap) and politically. If there were really nothing in his tax returns, he could have just released them, then said "ha ha! See? I told you I was clean!". Would have saved him a lot in legal fees and would have given him something to brag about. But he didn't do that... He's fighting tooth and nail to keep things hidden. Quote: It's not as if there is a shortage of times where he was about to be destroyed by some testimony, or revelation only for it not to pan out. This time the swan could be black, but I can't imagine why one would have any confidence that it would be. There are 2 issues here... what could be damaging to Trump legally (fines and/or jail time) and what could be damaging politcaly. When it comes to the legal issues.... Society is often quite lax when it comes to prosecuting financial crimes. For example, Manafort's was charged with crimes that went back roughly a decade, and may never have been charged if he had not gotten involved with Trump (since that helped draw attention to his activities). Trump is likely in the same boat... engaging in various types of fraud, and his crimes not getting punished because financial crimes are not often investigated. But now that he's president, people actually want to examine his (likely) illegal activities, and he's fighting to keep stuff hidden. As for politically... he has only fought one election, and that was against an unpopular Democrat. Its a little early to say that he's invulnerable to certain revelations. Yes, there are hardcore Trump supporters who will vote for him regardless. Yes, Republican congress critters are almost all boot-lickers who enable the worst of Trump's excesses. But, you can't win an election just on the hardcore backers... you need at least some moderates/undecideds. Trump seems to be in a serious political battle... trailing Biden in multiple polls, and if things don't change he could be slaughtered in the next election (bringing the Republican party down with him). If his taxes reveal he is actually broke, or that there are russian ties, or that he has broken the law, then it may cause some of those moderates he needs to win to sit out the election.
	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot

8th September 2020, 09:45 AM	#129
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Originally Posted by JoeMorgue Again I don't know how clearer the Trumpers can make their case for "Trump has no standards, therefore he cannot commit the unforgivable sin of having standards but not living up to them." I don't think that is really true. It would have to be something that would have made Rodney Dangerfield unlikable to people who find Rodney Dangerfield likable. Originally Posted by JoeMorgue The only sin the Trumpers recognize is having a standard you don't live up a strawman version of 100% of the time and the way they manifest this is to worship someone who has no standards at all. You can be evil. You cannot be pretentious, hypocritical, dramatic, "not as smart as you think you are" or anything like that. This is where we differ. Take the prototypical christian conservative politician of the 80s who goes on and on about the evils of homosexuality and is chasing twinks when nobody is looking. He only spends a couple of hours licking rohypnol off his catamite on Sundays when his wife thinks he's helping out at a church group. 99% of the time he lives up to his public principles.... it's ridiculous that people call him a hypocrite. Jeffrey Dahmer wasn't murdering anybody 99.999% of the time, yet everybody focuses on the insignificant proportion of his life when he did. Kamala spent a trivial amount of her life smoking marijuana, putting people away for possession of marijuana, or laughing about it. The % of your day you spend on these things isn't that important.
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8th September 2020, 10:20 AM	#130
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Originally Posted by Segnosaur Not sure why you think its "foolish". I think there are significant reasons to believe his tax returns/financial details are hiding something serious, either illegal activities or politically damaging. I've heard this too many times over the past 4 years. Either he is phenomenally lucky, or some people are very bad at predicting when he's going to be wiped out. Originally Posted by Segnosaur We have for example testimony from Cohen (who worked with Trump for over a decade) and from investigations from the NY Times (that may have been based on inside knowledge from the Trump family) that he engaged in some sketchy activities that could be considered fraudulent... things like overvaluing property in order to obtain bank loans. It doesn't matter. How many times has somebody from a respectable establishment newspaper, or some disgruntled former official told us that their sources say they have the smoking gun and a week from now Trump will be finished, and then it doesn't pan out. What is special about this time? Originally Posted by Segnosaur We also know that Trump has broken rules regarding charitable organizations.... it would not be that much of a step up for him to violate tax laws or other such rules. Yes, but the charity thing didn't have him carted off in handcuffs, or stop him being president. I'm not saying there is no possibility of them getting him, but past form on this doesn't seem very encouraging. Originally Posted by Segnosaur And if there really was nothing damaging in Trump's financials, why didn't he release them? It is costing him a lot... both money-wise (those lawyers don't come cheap) and politically. I doubt those lawyers cost him that much, and is it really costing him politically? People seem much more concerned about riots and covid. Originally Posted by Segnosaur If there were really nothing in his tax returns, he could have just released them, then said "ha ha! See? I told you I was clean!". No matter what is in his tax returns, it seems to me there will be loose threads and details to speculate over that will fill as many newspaper front pages, and talking head segments as the Democrat media choose to throw at it. Meanwhile "there was nothing there" can be said in a sentence. If he has some cunning way to play the reveal that favours him and ends up looking like the Rachel Maddow "I have his Taxes" gaff, then he's going to be waiting to the right moment to do it. Why waste a "ha ha! See? I told you I was clean!"? Originally Posted by Segnosaur Would have saved him a lot in legal fees and would have given him something to brag about. I doubt the legal fees are keeping him up at night. Right now, why would he want to give people something to talk about other than the rioting? Originally Posted by Segnosaur But he didn't do that... He's fighting tooth and nail to keep things hidden. Sure, he's not a naive innocent who believes he is being asked for his tax returns by people with no motivation for getting access to them other than to double check the IRS's homework. Of course he isn't cooperating. Originally Posted by Segnosaur There are 2 issues here... what could be damaging to Trump legally (fines and/or jail time) and what could be damaging politcaly. Indeed. Turning the story off the riots would damage him politically at the moment regardless of whether there was anything damaging in the tax returns. Originally Posted by Segnosaur When it comes to the legal issues.... Society is often quite lax when it comes to prosecuting financial crimes. For example, Manafort's was charged with crimes that went back roughly a decade, and may never have been charged if he had not gotten involved with Trump (since that helped draw attention to his activities). Trump is likely in the same boat... engaging in various types of fraud, and his crimes not getting punished because financial crimes are not often investigated. But now that he's president, people actually want to examine his (likely) illegal activities, and he's fighting to keep stuff hidden. All perfectly possible. Originally Posted by Segnosaur As for politically... he has only fought one election, and that was against an unpopular Democrat. Its a little early to say that he's invulnerable to certain revelations. Yes, there are hardcore Trump supporters who will vote for him regardless. Yes, Republican congress critters are almost all boot-lickers who enable the worst of Trump's excesses. But, you can't win an election just on the hardcore backers... you need at least some moderates/undecideds. Trump seems to be in a serious political battle... trailing Biden in multiple polls, and if things don't change he could be slaughtered in the next election (bringing the Republican party down with him). If his taxes reveal he is actually broke, or that there are russian ties, or that he has broken the law, then it may cause some of those moderates he needs to win to sit out the election. Spartan quotes aside, I agree that the real consequence of any significance that is in play is the loss of the election.
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Last edited by shuttlt; 8th September 2020 at 10:22 AM.

8th September 2020, 11:37 AM	#131
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus I think you're missing the point. It's not that anyone should judge another based on the percent of time doing good vs percent doing bad, it's that Trumpkins are always eager to point the finger at others for the same flaws that Trump himself manifests in ways that are magnitudes worse. It's a cult, simple as that. We'll have to agree to disagree about "magnitudes worse" and what precisely he is guilty of. The point is, Trump's case for the Presidency doesn't depend on a claim of personal morality. The Democrat's case is based around Trump being too immoral to be President, hence if they have a scandal they look like hypocrites in a way Trump can't.
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8th September 2020, 11:52 AM	#132
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 17,098	Originally Posted by shuttlt Quote: Not sure why you think its "foolish". I think there are significant reasons to believe his tax returns/financial details are hiding something serious, either illegal activities or politically damaging. I've heard this too many times over the past 4 years. Trump has basically been protected (at least against legal repercussions) for the past 4 years, partly by the position of being president, partly by a corrupt department of justice. You do realize he is president, don't you, and that the DOJ has a rule against having criminal proceedings against a sitting president. Quote: Either he is phenomenally lucky, or some people are very bad at predicting when he's going to be wiped out. Once again... Trump does not have to be 'phenomenally lucky'.... The U.S. is often lax when it comes to prosecuting financial crimes. (As I had pointed out before, people like Manafort went over a decade before they attracted unwanted attention.) That Trump would last years/decades without fraud being investigated is pretty much par for the course. Quote: Quote: We have for example testimony from Cohen (who worked with Trump for over a decade) and from investigations from the NY Times (that may have been based on inside knowledge from the Trump family) that he engaged in some sketchy activities that could be considered fraudulent... things like overvaluing property in order to obtain bank loans. It doesn't matter. How many times has somebody from a respectable establishment newspaper, or some disgruntled former official told us that their sources say they have the smoking gun and a week from now Trump will be finished, and then it doesn't pan out. And we've also had cases where people have been arrested after various investigations and 'smoking guns'. Look at Bernie Maddoff... suspicious were raised about his activities as far back as 1999... it did take years for the feds to actually prosecute, but it did happen. Trump likely has skeletons in his closet.... things that he could probably get charged for and get subject to either fines or jail time. By the way, you seem to be confusing 2 different issues here: Whether there is something potentially damaging in his financial statements (which evidence suggests there is) and whether he is (or might) get punished for it. Quote: What is special about this time? Well for one, unlike his career pre-politics, he's drawn unwanted attention to himself. And two, unlike the past 4 years, there is a significant chance that he will find himself without the protection afforded to being a sitting president. Quote: Yes, but the charity thing didn't have him carted off in handcuffs... No it didn't. But it did cost him a lot of money. However, the penalties for some of the other types of fraud he was engaged in can have some serious penalties. Remember, Cohen ended up going to jail, for engaging in some of the same crimes Trump has engaged in. If Cohen can go to jail for those crimes, in theory Trump could as well. Quote: or stop him being president. Which is irrelevant, since Trump has been protected by the DOJ (something that may possibly end in November) and boot-licking republican congress-critters (who won't be able to do much to help once he is out of office.) Quote: Quote: And if there really was nothing damaging in Trump's financials, why didn't he release them? It is costing him a lot... both money-wise (those lawyers don't come cheap) and politically. I doubt those lawyers cost him that much Trump can be notoriously cheap. We are talking about a guy who used Trump foundation charity funds to pay for his son's boy scout fees. And you might want to ask yourself... If Trump is so wealthy that the cost of some high-price lawyers isn't that important to him, why did he run the Trump U. scam? He was (as he claimed) a multi-billionaire, yet he was trying to scam people for just a few million. My point being... if he is as cheap and/or as broke as it looks, then paying for lawyers to keep his taxes hidden would be a major outlay for him, and there must be a reason for that. Quote: and is it really costing him politically? People seem much more concerned about riots and covid. Its not a major election factor, but in a close race, every vote counts. Even a few hundred votes here and there from voters who have concerns over integrity in a key swing state could mean the difference between winning and losing an election. Quote: Sure, he's not a naive innocent who believes he is being asked for his tax returns by people with no motivation for getting access to them other than to double check the IRS's homework. Of course he isn't cooperating. Other presidential candidates have released their tax returns, despite the chance that the opposition might have their own motivations. Clinton did. Obama did. Bush Jr. did. Yet Trump hasn't. You asked the question before "what's different/what's changed". Well, ask yourself the same question now... "what's different with Trump".
	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot

8th September 2020, 11:56 AM	#133
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus Have you considered the possibility that losing the election may break the spell and result in a snowball of mounting disapproval? Especially if he melts down into endless bitching and whining about what he's entitled to. All things are possible. I think given the number of variables, no predictions of what is going to happen that far out are worth much. That said, I think when he goes, he will go more gracefully than you think. Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus I think that's absolutely worthy of consideration. Things change. Surely you've seen enough to know that. While I admit surprise at the stability of his approval, I have confidence that this cult of personality will inevitably crash, eventually. Sure, things change, but aren't we getting close to the gamblers fallacy here? Given the effort that has gone in to finding mud to throw at him, what reason is there to think there is some killing blow waiting out there that wasn't used in 2016, didn't come out in Russiagate, didn't come out during impeachment, wasn't dredged up in some sordid back alley by Avenatti, hasn't been leaked by anybody to MSNBC? Are we thinking they have held on to something all this time, or that they fluked it and just like how your keys are always in the last pocket you check.... somehow they only recently found Trumps final horcrux? I think you are relying on Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns". The world is a chaotic place, so it's possible. We'll find out in October, I guess.
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8th September 2020, 12:09 PM	#134
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 17,098	Originally Posted by shuttlt We'll have to agree to disagree about "magnitudes worse" and what precisely he is guilty of. A partial list of some of the potential crimes that Trump has engaged in (that could lead to jail time and/or major fines): - Violation of election spending laws (e.g. stormy daniels payments) - Bank fraud (overestimating value of property to get loans) - Tax fraud (underestimating property values for tax purposes) - Money Laundering (on behalf of Russian interests) - Perjury (lying on statements made to Mueller) - Bribery (Ukraine incident) Some of these are related to his political career (e.g. spending laws, perjury), others predate the 2016 election. But all of them could in theory lead to jail time. Quote: The point is, Trump's case for the Presidency doesn't depend on a claim of personal morality. First of all, we're not just talking about the 'case for the presidency'. The purpose of this thread was to talk about Biden pardoning Trump for various crimes (post presidency). And secondly, remember that Trump himself has claimed innocence with respect to his various crimes. Quote: The Democrat's case is based around Trump being too immoral to be President, hence if they have a scandal they look like hypocrites in a way Trump can't. Its not just Trump's immorality, its also his incompetence. Of course, as we have pointed out, the top if this thread is whether Biden will pardon Trump for these (and other) crimes.
	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot

8th September 2020, 12:18 PM	#135
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus Honestly, I wouldn't call it mere disagreement. When it comes to, for example, honesty and frequency of lying, if you think he is not magnitudes worse compared with other politicians, we don't disagree. You are simply wrong. It is not a matter of opinion. There is no objective way of quantifying lies. Anybody who claims to put a number to one candidates lies vs another is being a dishonest, partisan hack. Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus No, the point is that Trump's base hold the opposition responsible for their immoral acts (such as Bill Clinton and women, or Obama's alleged lies about ACA) while giving Trump a pass for more egregious violations of that same morality. It's willfully blind hypocrisy. Your side is the golf club establishment, Trump is Rodney Dangerfield. He outrages you. Keeping a list of all the terrible things he has done in public just proves that he is uncouth and does dubious things in public that respectable people do in private. You are going up against people who think your side gin up racial hatred and allege sex crimes against people for political advantage. You don't see it like that, but that doesn't matter. Your list of the 10,000 times MSNBC says Trump has lied isn't going to impress anybody who thinks that "hands up don't shoot" is a long debunked lie, and the Democrats start riots by supporting things like that while knowing it is false.
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314

8th September 2020, 12:31 PM	#136
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314	Originally Posted by Segnosaur A partial list of some of the potential crimes that Trump has engaged in (that could lead to jail time and/or major fines): - Violation of election spending laws (e.g. stormy daniels payments) - Bank fraud (overestimating value of property to get loans) - Tax fraud (underestimating property values for tax purposes) - Money Laundering (on behalf of Russian interests) - Perjury (lying on statements made to Mueller) - Bribery (Ukraine incident) I go back to my IF post. People have been claiming that this kind of stuff is going to finish him and he is going to jail since what feels like forever. Either it comes out in the next few weeks, or they don't have it. As for going after him out of office... 99% of the point of going after him will evaporate the moment he is out. Originally Posted by Segnosaur Some of these are related to his political career (e.g. spending laws, perjury), others predate the 2016 election. But all of them could in theory lead to jail time. In theory isn't the argument. Originally Posted by Segnosaur First of all, we're not just talking about the 'case for the presidency'. The purpose of this thread was to talk about Biden pardoning Trump for various crimes (post presidency). I think that is related in the sense that his popularity isn't based on being a choirboy, and that I think it is going to be very hard to prosecute him while he is popular. Originally Posted by Segnosaur And secondly, remember that Trump himself has claimed innocence with respect to his various crimes. Of course he has. He's hardly going to say "why certainly I violated election law". Why would he? Originally Posted by Segnosaur Its not just Trump's immorality, its also his incompetence. I wish that I was as resilient to the consequences of my incompetence as Trump. Originally Posted by Segnosaur Of course, as we have pointed out, the top if this thread is whether Biden will pardon Trump for these (and other) crimes. I go back to saying that the main reason for doing that would be if it was politically convenient for Biden to do it. If he pardons him, it is because there is no political will to prosecute him. Without political will to prosecute him, I don't think he will be prosecuted.
shuttlt Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,314

8th September 2020, 12:57 PM	#137
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 17,098	Originally Posted by shuttlt Quote: A partial list of some of the potential crimes that Trump has engaged in (that could lead to jail time and/or major fines): - Violation of election spending laws (e.g. stormy daniels payments) - Bank fraud (overestimating value of property to get loans) - Tax fraud (underestimating property values for tax purposes) - Money Laundering (on behalf of Russian interests) - Perjury (lying on statements made to Mueller) - Bribery (Ukraine incident) I go back to my IF post. People have been claiming that this kind of stuff is going to finish him and he is going to jail since what feels like forever. I doubt anyone here expected he would be arrested while he was still acting as president. If he were to be prosecuted/jailed, it would have been after his term was done. Quote: Either it comes out in the next few weeks, or they don't have it. Ummmm... no. It takes time to gather evidence (especially given Trump's attempts to block the release of his tax returns). Plus the prosecutors have to decide on charges, the grand jury has to act, etc. And because prosecutors normally try to keep things like this secret, I doubt anything will come out 'in the next few weeks' regardless of what they have. A more likely time frame is in early to mid-2021... Quote: As for going after him out of office... 99% of the point of going after him will evaporate the moment he is out. Again, no... Believe it or not, some prosecutors actually do believe in justice for justices sake. If Trump has been engaging in tax fraud, perjury, money laundering, etc., he deserves to be punished, not because "We want him out of office" but because what he was doing was illegal and its necessary to show that laws are to be enforced. Quote: Quote: First of all, we're not just talking about the 'case for the presidency'. The purpose of this thread was to talk about Biden pardoning Trump for various crimes (post presidency). I think that is related in the sense that his popularity isn't based on being a choirboy, and that I think it is going to be very hard to prosecute him while he is popular. It will be super easy. Barely an inconvenience. Given the republican mind-set and Trump's activities, there is no reason to hold off on pressing charges. The republicans will have shown no remorse (i.e. no need for empathy, and the country isn't going to "heal" any faster) and it won't make a difference when it comes to their future activities. Quote: Quote: And secondly, remember that Trump himself has claimed innocence with respect to his various crimes. Of course he has. He's hardly going to say "why certainly I violated election law". Why would he? But that was the point you and others had made... Trump is "wearing his dirt proudly" (or something like that). Quote: I wish that I was as resilient to the consequences of my incompetence as Trump. Its easy.. all you have to do is be born the son of a billionaire.
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8th September 2020, 01:43 PM	#138
Roger Ramjets Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,328	Originally Posted by JoeMorgue I really want to understand what the concept of "I don't like Trump" means coming from people who defend him at every single argumentative chance. It's very simple. They don't like Trump because he does cringe-worthy stuff. But he has an 'R' next to his name, so they have to defend him no matter what. And there's a lot about Trump that they do like (but can't admit to in public). Or more succinctly, they are Deplorable.
	__________________ We don't want good, sound arguments. We want arguments that sound good.

8th September 2020, 01:53 PM	#139
Foster Zygote Dental Floss Tycoon Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 17,703	Originally Posted by JoeMorgue Okay seriously walk me through what could be in his tax returns that is going to be worse then... you know I'm sick of listing all the stuff Trump has done at this point, let's just say Gestures widely at Trump all of that. I agree that he feels no shame for wrongdoing. He's utterly amoral. I've watched people try to shame him by calling him out as a liar and a cheater. He smirks smugly when people bring up his misogyny and sexual assault. He can't be shamed by any of that because he actually like that about himself. But he also has a very fragile ego. The alternative is that whatever's in those tax returns would expose him as a fake - would prove that he isn't as rich as he needs people to think he is. As a friend of mine said, you know he's got a little penis because otherwise he would have waved it at the cameras by now.
	__________________ Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone.

8th September 2020, 06:23 PM	#140
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 86,789	Well I just heard something interesting in the Cohen interview with Lester Holt: His recommendation to Trump was to quit now and have Pence pardon him for everything. Trump might just do this if he loses the election. Won't help for state charges, fortunately. Sorry if this has been posted earlier.

8th September 2020, 06:46 PM	#141
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,618	But if Pence does a very broad Pardon, State prosecutors might be reluctant to go after Trump, personally, and instead focus on his company; it looks petty trying to circumvent a Presidential Pardon.
	__________________ So what are you going to do about it, huh? What would an intellectual do? What would Plato do?

8th September 2020, 08:10 PM	#142
Beelzebuddy Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 8,063	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza it looks petty trying to circumvent a Presidential Pardon. At this point I think sending the message that no one is above the law is more important than that.
Beelzebuddy Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 8,063

8th September 2020, 08:24 PM	#143
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 86,789	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza But if Pence does a very broad Pardon, State prosecutors might be reluctant to go after Trump, personally, and instead focus on his company; it looks petty trying to circumvent a Presidential Pardon. Why? I do believe you are under the false impression a POTUS pardon has some special meaning? Trump has been pulling corruption scams his whole life. Why would being elected POTUS wipe all that out?

8th September 2020, 08:49 PM	#144
Delvo Дэлво Δελϝο דֶלְבֹֿ देल्वो Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: North Tonawanda, NY Posts: 9,281	Originally Posted by shuttlt what reason is there to think there is some killing blow waiting out there that wasn't used in 2016, didn't come out in Russiagate, didn't come out during impeachment, wasn't dredged up in some sordid back alley by Avenatti, hasn't been leaked by anybody to MSNBC? Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus in the future he will not have the office of the presidency to protect him. Also, all of those things that didn't harm him were political choices, not criminal trials or even civil suits. They're nowhere near the same kind of thing. (Especially when one's political "opponents" generally aren't even trying.) Of course, that doesn't mean anything will happen, either; it often doesn't to the rich in an oligarchy like ours. But it does mean the two things you're trying to connect have nothing at all to do with each other in any way.

8th September 2020, 08:55 PM	#145
Delvo Дэлво Δελϝο דֶלְבֹֿ देल्वो Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: North Tonawanda, NY Posts: 9,281	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza circumvent It would be as much "circumventing" as my eating poached eggs in upstate New York is "circumventing" my sister's dog getting his paws muddy in Idaho.

8th September 2020, 10:07 PM	#146
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,618	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger Why? I do believe you are under the false impression a POTUS pardon has some special meaning? Trump has been pulling corruption scams his whole life. Why would being elected POTUS wipe all that out? Prosecutors often want to get elected to Offices. For that, they need Republican votes, too. An indictment that seems aimed at making a former Republican President look bad (because there will almost certainly be no jail time for Trump no matter what) could lose them more support than it gains them.
	__________________ So what are you going to do about it, huh? What would an intellectual do? What would Plato do?

8th September 2020, 11:08 PM	#147
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,618	Originally Posted by The J is for Jeenyus I'm not so sure that's really true in the state of New York (the state most likely to prosecute Trump). it is probably true in Florida, where possibly the only really valuable Trump property sits.
	__________________ So what are you going to do about it, huh? What would an intellectual do? What would Plato do?

8th September 2020, 11:12 PM	#148
ChristianProgressive Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 2,828	Originally Posted by shuttlt I've heard this too many times over the past 4 years. Either he is phenomenally lucky, or some people are very bad at predicting when he's going to be wiped out. Or our legal system and governing processes are irretrievably broken.
	__________________ "As it was in the days of Noah, so will it be at the coming of the Son of Man." - Matthew 24:37 "And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh." - Luke 21:28

9th September 2020, 04:36 AM	#149
rockysmith76 Banned Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 1,990	Originally Posted by ChristianProgressive Or our legal system and governing processes are irretrievably broken. By the weak kneed left would have always been soft on crime and let murderers go free. I agree it's quite sickening. We thank you for supporting Strike 3.
rockysmith76 Banned Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 1,990

9th September 2020, 04:37 AM	#150
rockysmith76 Banned Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 1,990	Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets It's very simple. They don't like Trump because he does cringe-worthy stuff. But he has an 'R' next to his name, so they have to defend him no matter what. And there's a lot about Trump that they do like (but can't admit to in public). Or more succinctly, they are Deplorable. Also, both sides are equally useless, so the system is broken.
rockysmith76 Banned Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 1,990

9th September 2020, 05:51 AM	#151
Craig4 Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: I live in a swamp Posts: 22,546	Originally Posted by rockysmith76 Also, both sides are equally useless, so the system is broken. Get a grip. You think Biden and Trump are equal? Which sought the aid of foreign powers? Who got invited to pray in the church across from the White House and who had to use tear gas to stand on the sidewalk in front of it. If you're waiting for a president who hasn't made Faustian bargains, get comfortable because you'll be waiting forever. This time, there's one side who made compromises and Trump who is a filthy Russian whore.

9th September 2020, 03:49 PM	#152
Stacyhs Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: United States Posts: 17,980	Originally Posted by rockysmith76 By the weak kneed left would have always been soft on crime and let murderers go free. I agree it's quite sickening. We thank you for supporting Strike 3. Shane Taylor attempted to burglarize an empty residence, no violence. He then burglarized another empty residence, no violence. Two strikes. He went to jail After getting out, he got a job, got married and had a child. No further run ins with the law. Ten years later, he was caught with $10 worth of illegal drugs. Because of the Strike 3 law, he was sentenced to 25 years to life. Yeah, that's some justice. On the other hand, we have Trump who still won't admit the Central Park Five are innocent even after DNA proved the lone rapist-murderer who confessed done the deed.

10th September 2020, 10:10 PM	#153
varwoche Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Puget Sound Posts: 15,405	Originally Posted by rockysmith76 Also, both sides are equally useless, so the system is broken. Polly want a cracker.
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