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Tags donald trump , political predictions , political speculation , prediction thread , predictions

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Old 10th November 2016, 02:34 PM   #41
dudalb
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
I predict he won't build a wall, but will build another fence that will end up covering some weak spots in the existing arrangement. He will call it 'a barrier'. He will claim that Mexico paid for it, albeit indirectly, via raising of import tariffs.
THIS. He puts up a few hundred miles of Barbed Wire and claims he has a wall.
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Old 10th November 2016, 02:38 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I think he might nominate Ted Cruz. He's got a strong law background, the conservative base will like it, and it gets rid of a potential 2020 challenger.
Which is why Cruz will probably refuse it.
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Old 10th November 2016, 02:56 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Which is why Cruz will probably refuse it.
I disagree. A Supreme Court seat guarantees Cruz the opportunity to make a difference for decades to come. Staying in the senate means having to fend off a likely primary challenge in 2 years before he'd even have a chance to challenge Trump in 2020, and such a challenge would still probably be a long shot. If a Trump presidency goes badly, voters are likely to go for a Democrat in 2024, and if it goes well, Pence will be the likely Republican nominee, not Cruz.

I think Cruz would take the sure thing rather than the risky path. Trump's motives for offering the position to him are basically irrelevant, a Supreme Court seat is still pretty damned attractive.
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Old 10th November 2016, 03:01 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I disagree. A Supreme Court seat guarantees Cruz the opportunity to make a difference for decades to come. Staying in the senate means having to fend off a likely primary challenge in 2 years before he'd even have a chance to challenge Trump in 2020, and such a challenge would still probably be a long shot. If a Trump presidency goes badly, voters are likely to go for a Democrat in 2024, and if it goes well, Pence will be the likely Republican nominee, not Cruz.

I think Cruz would take the sure thing rather than the risky path. Trump's motives for offering the position to him are basically irrelevant, a Supreme Court seat is still pretty damned attractive.
I agree. I think the recent primaries was the high water mark of his presidential ambitions. The Republican Party doesn't really like him and he may not do so well next time. It makes sense that he will spend the rest of his days attempting to overturn Roe vs Wade and other "liberal" rulings.
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Old 10th November 2016, 03:06 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by RussDill View Post
Kangaroo court convicts Clinton as part of a drawn out show trial. Bread and circuses for all the Trump supporters so they can feel that they are making america great again.
That would be brought in District Court in Virginia or DC. That one won't get past the grand jury.
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Old 10th November 2016, 03:18 PM   #46
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Giulaini claims that Trump can build the wall by Executive Order.
Technically he might be right as far as Federal Land is concerned, but a good deal of the Border with Mexico is in private or state lands.raising Yuge legal issues. No to mention he would have to go to congress for additional money.
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Old 10th November 2016, 03:56 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Giulaini claims that Trump can build the wall by Executive Order.
Technically he might be right as far as Federal Land is concerned, but a good deal of the Border with Mexico is in private or state lands.raising Yuge legal issues. No to mention he would have to go to congress for additional money.
A large part of the 2000 mile border is in Texas and Arizona, which voted Trump, so I'm sure those people will be more than happy to turn over a chunk of their land to the effort. Of course there is that tiny matter of the 1200 miles where the border is down the center of the Rio Grande River.
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Old 10th November 2016, 06:01 PM   #48
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I just saw that Trump thinks he can build the wall with an executive order. He will learn he can't spend that much money without an appropriation which he probably won't get. Land owners will fight the wall and the GOP will probably not support the use of eminent domain. Mexico will not pay for it. The Mexican administration must hand Trump a humiliating defeat for their own domestic political interests. A solid fail on that one will be a good start.

The rounding up 11-12 million people will fail. What he doesn't and likely isn't smart enough to grasp is that each one of those people must be found deportable by an immigrations judge. Each one of them has a right to appeal to the Board of Immigration Appeals and may seek relief from the circuit court of appeals. Just a small fraction of that number would paralyze the courts.

Goading him by doing things like nation wide protests during his inauguration will both embarrass him keep a divided country narrative going. Celebrity Twitter wars will be inevitable and support a narrative of someone only playing at president.
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Old 10th November 2016, 07:03 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
That's not the only way to raise the money. We could also tax remittances to Mexico. There's a lot of money there ($24.8 billion in 2015), even a 1% tax would add up.
Yeah... How would you do this exactly? Check every envelop that is mailed to Mexico to see if it has cash in it you can tax? Force the Banks to add a tax to any money paid from a US to a Mexico Bank A/c? Charge people a tax to carry currency over the border? Raid people that have a system set up where people pay them in the US and then they call their partner in Mexico who pays the person at the other end? Force Western Union to tax all payments sent to Mexico?
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Old 10th November 2016, 07:19 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
The rounding up 11-12 million people will fail. What he doesn't and likely isn't smart enough to grasp is that each one of those people must be found deportable by an immigrations judge. Each one of them has a right to appeal to the Board of Immigration Appeals and may seek relief from the circuit court of appeals. Just a small fraction of that number would paralyze the courts.
"We've" gotten around that minor technicality before.
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Old 10th November 2016, 07:24 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I just saw that Trump thinks he can build the wall with an executive order. He will learn he can't spend that much money without an appropriation which he probably won't get. Land owners will fight the wall and the GOP will probably not support the use of eminent domain. Mexico will not pay for it. The Mexican administration must hand Trump a humiliating defeat for their own domestic political interests. A solid fail on that one will be a good start.

The rounding up 11-12 million people will fail. What he doesn't and likely isn't smart enough to grasp is that each one of those people must be found deportable by an immigrations judge. Each one of them has a right to appeal to the Board of Immigration Appeals and may seek relief from the circuit court of appeals. Just a small fraction of that number would paralyze the courts.

Goading him by doing things like nation wide protests during his inauguration will both embarrass him keep a divided country narrative going. Celebrity Twitter wars will be inevitable and support a narrative of someone only playing at president.
He thinks he's just going to stick them on a bus, and then send then to Mexico or wherever, no trial, no nothing, just pick them up and ship them out.
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Old 10th November 2016, 07:32 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Yeah... How would you do this exactly? Check every envelop that is mailed to Mexico to see if it has cash in it you can tax? Force the Banks to add a tax to any money paid from a US to a Mexico Bank A/c? Charge people a tax to carry currency over the border? Raid people that have a system set up where people pay them in the US and then they call their partner in Mexico who pays the person at the other end? Force Western Union to tax all payments sent to Mexico?
That's not how "CEO Executive" President Trump operates. He comes up with the idea, and orders other people to carry them out. It's up to them to figure it out, or he'll stop by to demand an accounting and declare "You're Fired!"

I think he's going to be horrified when he learns that's not how the presidency works.
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Old 10th November 2016, 07:38 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
That's not how "CEO Executive" President Trump operates. He comes up with the idea, and orders other people to carry them out. It's up to them to figure it out, or he'll stop by to demand an accounting and declare "You're Fired!"

I think he's going to be horrified when he learns that's not how the presidency works.
He won't do his homework, and will demand others distill the already reduced intelligence to tiny, simple sound bites. This will be his cabinet's best opportunity to Make America Great Again in spite of him, by feeding him data to "guide" his answers.
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Old 10th November 2016, 07:40 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I just saw that Trump thinks he can build the wall with an executive order. He will learn he can't spend that much money without an appropriation which he probably won't get. Land owners will fight the wall and the GOP will probably not support the use of eminent domain. Mexico will not pay for it. The Mexican administration must hand Trump a humiliating defeat for their own domestic political interests. A solid fail on that one will be a good start.
Behind closed doors Trump will tell the Republican leadership in Congress that he will appoint a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-marijuana judge unless he gets what he wants. He will agree to appoint whatever far right conservative Christian they want...just as soon as they pass a bill funding the wall and authorizing him to renegotiate trade agreements. So begins the tit for tat of really bad ideas.

Trump then discovers that it is not 1982 and there actually are walls and fences along much of the border. He hangs a bit of barbed wire and calls the wall complete...under budget and ahead of schedule. Now, what to do with all that extra money he saved...
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Old 10th November 2016, 07:53 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Yeah... How would you do this exactly? Check every envelop that is mailed to Mexico to see if it has cash in it you can tax?
Very little remittance is mailed. Too easy for cash to get stolen. Most of it gets transferred electronically. Very little of it is carried back either. That takes too long, and has its own significant costs.

Quote:
Force Western Union to tax all payments sent to Mexico?
Yup.
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Old 10th November 2016, 07:57 PM   #56
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The real question is what position will Alex Jones get in the new administration?

Perhaps Secretary of a new Department of Conspiracy Whackjobs?
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Old 10th November 2016, 09:15 PM   #57
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Trump will in fact build a wall. Yes, it might be a fence in some places, and it might be electronic surveillance near natural barriers in other places, but it will be effective in that, when completed, it will reduce illegal immigration by a factor of 10.

As for Mexico paying for the wall, well, it already has. The Mexican peso was 18.3 to the dollar on Tuesday, and now it is 20.6 to the dollar. It has lost 11% of its value because of Trump's election. Given that we import roughly $20 billion of Mexican goods and services per year, which are actually denominated in pesos, the terms of trade have shifted in our favor by $2.2 billion per year. That seems to cover the rate of spending a wall would require.
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Old 10th November 2016, 09:32 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by sunmaster14 View Post
Trump will in fact build a wall. Yes, it might be a fence in some places, and it might be electronic surveillance near natural barriers in other places, but it will be effective in that, when completed, it will reduce illegal immigration by a factor of 10.

As for Mexico paying for the wall, well, it already has. The Mexican peso was 18.3 to the dollar on Tuesday, and now it is 20.6 to the dollar. It has lost 11% of its value because of Trump's election. Given that we import roughly $20 billion of Mexican goods and services per year, which are actually denominated in pesos, the terms of trade have shifted in our favor by $2.2 billion per year. That seems to cover the rate of spending a wall would require.
Sweet Jesus but that's some mathematical judo there.
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Old 10th November 2016, 09:35 PM   #59
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Looks also like Trump will be able to undo almost every domestic policy implemented by Obama over the last 8 years, in large part because Obama implemented those policies either through legislative legerdemain (i.e. budget reconciliation), executive order, or administrative overreach. Live by the pen, die by the pen, I guess.

Some examples:

(1) Dodd-Frank is gone (and good riddance);
(2) Consumer Review Board is gone (and good riddance);
(3) Obamacare employer mandates are gone (good);
(4) Obamacare coverage mandates are gone (good);
(5) Force states to accept cross-border sales of health insurance (good);
(6) Some kind of gutting and remaking of Obamacare (hopefully good - we'll see);
(7) Estate tax gone (good);
(8) Income tax rates lower (good);
(9) Corporate tax rates lower (good);
(10) Overseas profit repatriation tax holiday (better than not, but sort of meh);
(11) Ending tax subsidies for renewable energy and electric cars (good);
(12) Shelving of carbon emission reduction nonsense once and for all (good);
(13) Opening up more federally controlled areas for gas and oil drilling (good);
(14) Approving Keystone pipeline (good);
(15) Expanding navy (good);
(16) Reforging all of the gold in Fort Knox to spell out "DONALD J. TRUMP" in 10 foot high solid gold letters on the White House lawn (uber cool).
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Old 10th November 2016, 11:00 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by sunmaster14 View Post
Looks also like Trump will be able to undo almost every domestic policy implemented by Obama over the last 8 years, in large part because Obama implemented those policies either through legislative legerdemain (i.e. budget reconciliation), executive order, or administrative overreach. Live by the pen, die by the pen, I guess.

Some examples:

(1) Dodd-Frank is gone (and good riddance);
(2) Consumer Review Board is gone (and good riddance);
(3) Obamacare employer mandates are gone (good);
(4) Obamacare coverage mandates are gone (good);
(5) Force states to accept cross-border sales of health insurance (good);
(6) Some kind of gutting and remaking of Obamacare (hopefully good - we'll see);
(7) Estate tax gone (good);
(8) Income tax rates lower (good);
(9) Corporate tax rates lower (good);
(10) Overseas profit repatriation tax holiday (better than not, but sort of meh);
(11) Ending tax subsidies for renewable energy and electric cars (good);
(12) Shelving of carbon emission reduction nonsense once and for all (good);
(13) Opening up more federally controlled areas for gas and oil drilling (good);
(14) Approving Keystone pipeline (good);
(15) Expanding navy (good);
(16) Reforging all of the gold in Fort Knox to spell out "DONALD J. TRUMP" in 10 foot high solid gold letters on the White House lawn (uber cool).
And he'll pay for #15 how?
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Old 10th November 2016, 11:27 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Blue Mountain View Post
And he'll pay for #15 how?
Deficits don't matter when Republicans are in charge. That's Econ 101...
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Old 10th November 2016, 11:36 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Very little remittance is mailed. Too easy for cash to get stolen. Most of it gets transferred electronically. Very little of it is carried back either. That takes too long, and has its own significant costs.

Yup.
Guess I know the business to get into then, Just need to have a contact in the US and one in Mexico, people can give to the money to the one in the US for a fee below that of WU and your wall tax, and the person they want to have it can get it from the contact in Mexico. At the end of the day the contact in the US sends the money to an account in Hong Kong, which is then sent on to a Bank in Mexico.

Tax that.
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Old 10th November 2016, 11:46 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Blue Mountain View Post
And he'll pay for #15 how?
By admission fees to see #16.
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Old 11th November 2016, 12:05 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by sunmaster14 View Post
Trump will in fact build a wall. Yes, it might be a fence in some places, and it might be electronic surveillance near natural barriers in other places, but it will be effective in that, when completed, it will reduce illegal immigration by a factor of 10.
That's got to be an amazing wall when you consider that over 50% of illegal immigrants arrive legally on a visa or border crossing card and then over stay, or cross into the US over the Canadian border. How will your wall stop 80% of that?
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Old 11th November 2016, 12:28 AM   #65
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Quote:
(11) Ending tax subsidies for renewable energy and electric cars (good);
(12) Shelving of carbon emission reduction nonsense once and for all (good);
(13) Opening up more federally controlled areas for gas and oil drilling (good);
(14) Approving Keystone pipeline (good);
Why is this "pave the whales" **** still a conservative agenda? Is anti-conservation of resources good stewardship of the nation? Are conservatives that convinced some magical skydaddy solution will save us from ourselves?

What a bunch of crap. Recycling your beer cans and not ******** the bed is not liberalism, it's just sensible.
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Old 11th November 2016, 01:27 AM   #66
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I have a Trump prediction: his administration beats Reagan's administration's record of number of indictments.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pres..._Ronald_Reagan
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Old 11th November 2016, 03:07 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by rustypouch View Post
Doom.

But seriously, I'm worried that the whole country will follow Kansas. Look how Republican policies of low taxes and government cuts has worked for them.
I know a few minutes is a long time in Trumpland, so this might be hopelessly out of date but:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/08/...k-advisor.html

Kansas' Governer Sam Brownback (surprised he got that far with that name) was appointed Trump economic adviser earlier this year.
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Old 11th November 2016, 03:21 AM   #68
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Here is the priority list for 'draining the swamp':
Originally Posted by Trump
* FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress;

* SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health);

* THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;

* FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;

* FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;

* SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.
1. McConnell has already disavowed this.
2. Could be interesting. Could destroy public services pretty quickly. Could trim the fat.
3. We tried one in, one out in the UK. It seemed to be quietly dropped. Just doesn't work practically, but as an aim to reduce regulation it gives a sense of direction.
4 and 5. First amendment?
6. Seems very easy to bypass. Might also affect donations to the Republicans from individuals with offshore accounts.

I also hear from the radio that he is going to end cronyism while appointing his daughter to something.

Last edited by gypsyjackson; 11th November 2016 at 03:33 AM.
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Old 11th November 2016, 03:32 AM   #69
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"Protecting workers":

Originally Posted by Trump
* FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205

* SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership

* THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator

* FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately

* FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars' worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.

* SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward

* SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America's water and environmental infrastructure
1 and 2. Does GOP actually want to attack trade?
3. This has been bizarre throughout, since it formed part of the (just) 8 policies on Trump's website. Why do something which will have zero real world impact except harm relations with one of, if not the, biggest creditors the US has? He is oddly hung up on this.
4. Wait and see what this actually means.
5. What Jrrarglblarg said.
6. I don't know anything about this.
7. See 5.
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Old 11th November 2016, 03:51 AM   #70
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Restoring constitutional law:

Originally Posted by Trump
* FIRST, cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama

* SECOND, begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States

* THIRD, cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities

* FOURTH, begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won't take them back

* FIFTH, suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting.
1. If they are unconstitutional...
2. ...oh, they will be now.
3. On day 1? Doesn't this mean cutting off funding to the FBI and the Secret Service in, for instance, Washington DC? Feels like this hasn't been thought through.
4. As this is about constitutional law, I assume the constitution will still apply to these people until they are expelled. That'll mean that without extra funding, the rate will be about the same as under Obama, less if the attrition mentioned before takes hold. I don't think we'll see many visa cancellations.
5. This is essentially meaningless and is presumably included so he can point it out to the islamophobes. Semantically I don't understand how all vetting can be 'considered' extreme vetting - if it is all, then by definition it isn't extreme. 'Considering' something as something else also doesn't change its essence. Or does 'consider' actually here mean 'become'? If so, does that mean that a visitor from Canada will be vetted in the same way as a visitor from Somalia? Sounds expensive.
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Old 11th November 2016, 04:28 AM   #71
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Mods, please feel to break this up or direct me to do so if you feel it is too large.

Acts of government in the first 100 days (assuming they can repeal twice as many as new acts):

Originally Posted by Trump
1. Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act.
2. End The Offshoring Act.
3. American Energy & Infrastructure Act.
4. School Choice And Education Opportunity Act.
5. Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act.
6. Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act.
7. End Illegal Immigration Act
8. Restoring Community Safety Act.
9. Restoring National Security Act.
10. Clean up Corruption in Washington Act.
1. 4% growth? 25 million jobs? Good luck with that. Also should have included motherhood and apple pie in the name. I also note he says the middle class will get the biggest tax cut at circa 35% while in the same paragraph noting a 57% cut for business. Or does he mean the middle class will get a 35 percentage point cut, presumably resulting in massive handouts?

2. Not sure how these tariffs will work. Does he mean to put tariffs on imports from US companies with overseas production or to tax all imports from countries with a US-owned manufacturing presence? Does that fit with historic GOP policy?

3. Public-Private partnerships are very good at siphoning public money into private hands. On the other hand it could be a good economic spur, if infrastructure improvements deliver economic growth.

4. Nice. Taking money from poor people to subsidise rich people's kids' education.

5. As expected, but no detail on how to help poor people get coverage. Worrying is the idea of speeding up drug trials - these are there for safety, and the pharmaceutical industry isn't exactly covered in glory when it comes to the safety/profit trade off.

6. Some good here, though again has potential to funnel funds from poor to rich; savings matching for low income families could offset this a bit - if people have money to save.

7. The Wall Act. I'm no expert in law, let alone international law, but surely writing into US law that another country will pay for its policy is just posturing. Someone else mentioned this, but would placing a boundary along the land nearest to the border cede control of all of the Rio Grande to Mexico?

8. Potentially good, though if it were that easy, wouldn't previous (Republican) Presidents have done this? Assuming they weren't blocked by the Houses, that is. Perhaps I have watched too much of The Shield, but I'm also worried about a Federal CRASH unit.

9. Massive spending, though the VA stuff appeals to me. That said, giving veterans vouchers for private health care effectively states you aren't going to repair general health care any time soon.

10. See above.
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Old 11th November 2016, 04:32 AM   #72
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I've just had a flash of inspiration.

I reckon Trump's presidency will be a lot like Silvio Berlusconi's time as prime minister in Italy
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Old 11th November 2016, 04:43 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I've just had a flash of inspiration.

I reckon Trump's presidency will be a lot like Silvio Berlusconi's time as prime minister in Italy
A Italian friend of my mate texted him to say 'hooray! Italy used to be famous internationally for pizza and Berlusconi, now it'll just be pizza!"
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Old 11th November 2016, 05:34 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
That's not how "CEO Executive" President Trump operates. He comes up with the idea, and orders other people to carry them out. It's up to them to figure it out, or he'll stop by to demand an accounting and declare "You're Fired!"
Gee, that reminds me of someone else who did that...
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Old 11th November 2016, 05:37 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by sunmaster14 View Post
(6) Some kind of gutting and remaking of Obamacare (hopefully good - we'll see);
You really think the GOP will make a new obamacare? They'll sooner let uninsured people die.
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Old 11th November 2016, 05:43 AM   #76
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Sunmaster14, he is not going to "fix" Obamacare. The costs of healthcare do not go down.It'sa monopoly.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.latim...tml#pt0-947140
From there:
Trump also put in a pitch for reestablishing high-risk pools, public insurers which would enroll customers with especially costly healthcare needs. Trump called this “a proven approach to ensuring access to health insurance coverage for individuals who have significant medical expenses and who have not maintained continuous coverage.”

The truth is almost exactly the opposite. As we explained in April, when high-risk pools were being promoted by House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the only thing these pools have been proven to be in the 35 states that tried them before the ACA is a failure. The pools were never adequately funded, which prompted states either to place caps on enrollments or saddle members with sky-high, unaffordable premiums.
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Last edited by Tero; 11th November 2016 at 06:14 AM. Reason: Added quoted part
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Old 11th November 2016, 05:46 AM   #77
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45% tariff on goods from Gina
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...-election-haze
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Old 11th November 2016, 06:02 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
Who's Gina and is she hawt?
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Old 11th November 2016, 06:08 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by marplots View Post
Who's Gina and is she hawt?
She's too old for Trump to date. Old wrinkly ancient.
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Old 11th November 2016, 06:10 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
She's too old for Trump to date. Old wrinkly ancient.

Yeah, but she has the "goods." Apparently.
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