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Tags 2020 elections , donald trump , joe biden

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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:23 AM   #161
Distracted1
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Originally Posted by rdwight View Post
Definitely is an influx of New Yorkers currently into NJ, but doubt there is hard polling data of the reasoning. More work from home opportunity seems like the larger and most obvious possibility.
Certainly. The further one is from the rioting and looting, the easier it is to imagine that it is some other thing that is the primary driver of the white flight.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:24 AM   #162
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Yes. Real estate is a booming industry right now as people flee the cities.
There are influxes of investor money in the urban neighborhoods- it is a good time to snatch up property to rent out- and it is safer than keeping ones' cash in China.
How can you rent a house when nobody wants to live in that area anymore?

I guess I should explain part of the joke about home sales indicating that everyone is leaving. It's a long running bit to tell people not to come to Atlanta, we're full. And despite your claims, population doesn't seem to be dropping. Rather the other way around.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:25 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The next step is even worse, GENTRIFICATION !!!!!

So many hipsters,
Gentrification was in full swing here already.
Was overall a good thing, bringing tax dollars to the city and improving neighborhoods.

This is different. This is the end of the gentrification, and the 1970's and 80's all over again.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:27 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
Well I'm glad that we agree that having to live around people like that is a punishment.

They have a very large country to live in, Indians should be in India. It's right there in the name.
It wouldn't be punishment for me. I have black and Asian neighbors and it bothers me not in the slightest.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:27 AM   #165
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
How can you rent a house when nobody wants to live in that area anymore?

I guess I should explain part of the joke about home sales indicating that everyone is leaving. It's a long running bit to tell people not to come to Atlanta, we're full. And despite your claims, population doesn't seem to be dropping. Rather the other way around.
Research "ghetto".

What happens when people who are able to leave do so, is that the people left are there because they are stuck there.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:28 AM   #166
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Gentrification was in full swing here already.
Was overall a good thing, bringing tax dollars to the city and improving neighborhoods.

This is different. This is the end of the gentrification, and the 1970's and 80's all over again.
I don't buy it.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:29 AM   #167
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Research "ghetto".

What happens when people who are able to leave do so, is that the people left are there because they are stuck there.
Ok. Research population increase, which is not what happens when all the people who are able to leave do so.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:31 AM   #168
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
You don't know what you're talking about Bob. .
I'm pretty sure Bob was intentionally channeling Yogi Berra with his comment.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:33 AM   #169
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I'm pretty sure Bob was intentionally channeling Yogi Berra with his comment.
You're probably right. Sorry Bob.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:35 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
Ok. Research population increase, which is not what happens when all the people who are able to leave do so.
I think the events of this year are a bit too recent for there to be numbers on how Atlanta's population is changing.
These events are new this year.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:35 AM   #171
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
Correction: nothing says "your country has filled up with millions of civilizationally incompatible pieces of crap" quite so powerfully as needing to take such measures.
I know did you see what those scum did in New York and New Jersey on the bridges? And those things that surrounded the Biden bus, they barely qualify as humans.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:37 AM   #172
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
I need do no such thing.
Yes, we all can see you have no evidence or anything to support your assertion and implications.

You point out that suburbs are poplar destination for someone wanting to get home (let's generously assume "houses in suburban Philadelphia don't stay on the market more than a day or two" is actually true) and then wildly handwave, insinuate and imply that 1. this means people are running away from cities into suburbs and 2. it is due to riots.

But don't worry, I already said I understand what you actually are trying to do here.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:38 AM   #173
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
I need do no such thing.
If you wish to reject an obvious reality because it sits uncomfortably upon your world-view, feel free.
I am experiencing it first-hand, and your assertions that what is happening is not happening are so laughably out of touch that bothering to disabuse you of your illusions is exhausting to contemplate.
I didn’t say it wasn’t happening. But for it to be anything other than a non sequitur, it needs to be relevant to the discussion at hand.

Is it?
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:39 AM   #174
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I don't buy it.
Has happened before.
I grew up in Detroit in the Seventies and Eighties I have first hand memories of how this went.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_Detroit




From the link:
conomic and social fallout of the 1967 riots

Per capita income in Detroit and surrounding region from the 2000 census. The dotted line represents the city boundary.
After the riots, thousands of small businesses closed permanently or relocated to safer neighborhoods, and the affected district lay in ruins for decades.[27]

Of the 1967 riots, politician Coleman Young, Detroit's first black mayor, wrote in 1994:

"The heaviest casualty, however, was the city. Detroit's losses went a hell of a lot deeper than the immediate toll of lives and buildings. The riot put Detroit on the fast track to economic desolation, mugging the city and making off with incalculable value in jobs, earnings taxes, corporate taxes, retail dollars, sales taxes, mortgages, interest, property taxes, development dollars, investment dollars, tourism dollars, and plain damn money. The money was carried out in the pockets of the businesses and the people who fled as fast as they could. The white exodus from Detroit had been prodigiously steady prior to the riot, totally twenty-two thousand in 1966, but afterward, it was frantic. In 1967, with less than half the year remaining after the summer explosion, the outward population migration reached sixty-seven thousand. In 1968 the figure hit eighty-thousand, followed by forty-six thousand in 1969.[25]"
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:39 AM   #175
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
Correction: nothing says "your country has filled up with millions of civilizationally incompatible pieces of crap" quite so powerfully as needing to take such measures.
I love irony.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:42 AM   #176
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
I think the events of this year are a bit too recent for there to be numbers on how Atlanta's population is changing.
These events are new this year.
The city of Atlanta had a population increase of 2.5% from 2019 to 2020, while the Atlanta metro region grew by 2.01% over the same period. Home sales within the city and throughout the region have been brisk for the last several years. Claiming that home sales this year are indicative of people leaving is wrong when taking historical trends into account. In fact, claiming that the same things that have signified a growing city suddenly signify a shrinking city is the premature claim. Until you have evidence that people are leaving, you're merely speculating. And that, based off of faulty assumptions and no data.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:42 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by Mader Levap View Post
Yes, we all can see you have no evidence or anything to support your assertion and implications.

You point out that suburbs are poplar destination for someone wanting to get home (let's generously assume "houses in suburban Philadelphia don't stay on the market more than a day or two" is actually true) and then wildly handwave, insinuate and imply that 1. this means people are running away from cities into suburbs and 2. it is due to riots.

But don't worry, I already said I understand what you actually are trying to do here.
What discussion are you referring to?
Are cities experiencing an accelerated "white flight"? (in this instance "white" can be replaced with "middle/working class") and is that flight being accelerated by the "unrest" taking place within their borders?


That is the discussion we are having, no?

ETA: ooops. this response was not directed at the quoted poster, sorry.
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Last edited by Distracted1; 3rd November 2020 at 12:12 PM.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:47 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
The city of Atlanta had a population increase of 2.5% from 2019 to 2020, while the Atlanta metro region grew by 2.01% over the same period. Home sales within the city and throughout the region have been brisk for the last several years. Claiming that home sales this year are indicative of people leaving is wrong when taking historical trends into account. In fact, claiming that the same things that have signified a growing city suddenly signify a shrinking city is the premature claim. Until you have evidence that people are leaving, you're merely speculating. And that, based off of faulty assumptions and no data.
Has Atlanta had riots/looting/general unrest this year?
I do not recall it being a city that experienced that.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:48 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Certainly. The further one is from the rioting and looting, the easier it is to imagine that it is some other thing that is the primary driver of the white flight.
I have a couple of friends who bolted from the highly populated areas to distant areas because they had always wanted to live in a more rural zone, but they couldn't find jobs there. Along comes work from home, and they saw their chance. I think it's the primary driver this year.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:50 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Has Atlanta had riots/looting/general unrest this year?
I do not recall it being a city that experienced that.
Yes, Atlanta has. It was during one set of riots that Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms rose enough in national prominence that there were serious talks of her becoming Biden's running mate.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 11:57 AM   #181
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I voted this morning in PA. I moved here a year ago and it's the first time my vote actually counts (electorially speaking). I showed up at the polling location at about 9am and I counted 60+ people in front of me. I stood in line about an hour or a little more, and the line had grown by another 25+ when I left.

It was strange to have so few options on the ballot. I'm used to voting for president, then about a dozen or so lesser positions, followed by 5 or 6 propositions. This had only a total of 6 contested races, I believe.

A word of caution: Be careful going to vote after binge watching Survivor. I had to mentally focus that I was voting for someone and not voting them off the island.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:01 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by rdwight View Post
... The coverage of businesses in New York in regards to this are quite funny in the sense that they don't have the balls to say the obvious.. that they are scared of the reaction to a Trump re-election causing the havoc. No one with a straight face can tell me these store fronts are boarding up in case Trump supports go wild if he loses. View that however you want, but that reality should be considered.
So you think Trump supporters won't come out with their 'long' guns and camo clothes when Trump loses?

Think they never break windows or loot?
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:01 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I have a couple of friends who bolted from the highly populated areas to distant areas because they had always wanted to live in a more rural zone, but they couldn't find jobs there. Along comes work from home, and they saw their chance. I think it's the primary driver this year.
It's simply cheaper to live outside the cities. I doubt "riots" are really much of a factor anywhere.

No question that in the 50s through the early 80s racism as a factor of white flight to the suburbs and beyond...and it was the traffic that drove them back ito the cities. The pandemic and the ability/need to work from home makes the suburbs and rural areas attractive to many. But it would probably be a mistake to conclude any patterns we encounter today are a permanent trend. I do know that commercial real estate has cratered.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:04 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I have a couple of friends who bolted from the highly populated areas to distant areas because they had always wanted to live in a more rural zone, but they couldn't find jobs there. Along comes work from home, and they saw their chance. I think it's the primary driver this year.
"Highly populated areas do not necessarily mean "Cities" in the colloquial.

And Detroit has pretty much already seen all of the flight that it can see.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:05 PM   #185
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
It's simply cheaper to live outside the cities. I doubt "riots" are really much of a factor anywhere.

No question that in the 50s through the early 80s racism as a factor of white flight to the suburbs and beyond...and it was the traffic that drove them back ito the cities. The pandemic and the ability/need to work from home makes the suburbs and rural areas attractive to many. But it would probably be a mistake to conclude any patterns we encounter today are a permanent trend. I do know that commercial real estate has cratered.
Wrong.
Inner cities are way, way, way cheaper to live in than suburbs- outside of outliers like S.F.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:17 PM   #186
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I have a couple of friends who bolted from the highly populated areas to distant areas because they had always wanted to live in a more rural zone, but they couldn't find jobs there. Along comes work from home, and they saw their chance. I think it's the primary driver this year.
That is certainly part of it but the riots are definitely a part of the problem too, especially here in PDX. An example of this is Standard Insurance which is right next to the riots. They'll abandon much of their office space. This means less tax revenue for the city, less restaurant patronage, and so on.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:20 PM   #187
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Wrong.
Inner cities are way, way, way cheaper to live in than suburbs- outside of outliers like S.F.
And Seattle and Portland and New York and Boston and Denver and many many other cities. Nice try. It all comes down to money, jobs and services. I say this as someone who traded a 2000 square foot home on a quarter lot in the suburbs for a 2 bedroom apartment in the city. I loved living in the city and it wasn't cheap.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:23 PM   #188
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Originally Posted by portlandatheist View Post
That is certainly part of it but the riots are definitely a part of the problem too, especially here in PDX. An example of this is Standard Insurance which is right next to the riots. They'll abandon much of their office space. This means less tax revenue for the city, less restaurant patronage, and so on.
Further closing of related businesses.
Strains on city services resulting from the decreased revenue leading to less attractive retail and living conditions etc..etc...etc...

What is the old quote? "nothing new under the sun"?

Anyway, I will not discuss this issue further in this thread- as it is certainly a derail from the election that is happening.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:25 PM   #189
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
And Seattle and Portland and New York and Boston and Denver and many many other cities. Nice try. It all comes down to money, jobs and services. I say this as someone who traded a 2000 square foot home on a quarter lot in the suburbs for a 2 bedroom apartment in the city. I loved living in the city and it wasn't cheap.
Or compared to a 3400 sq ft home on five rural acres with garages and outbuildings.

Two of my kids love the city life, and are willing to pay more to have less, just to experience it. I'd rather have the backwoods estate with grounds for the same jingle.

Working from home has also shown a lot of people that they don't need to actually be in a city to do their jobs. I expect more suburban and rural migration.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:26 PM   #190
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
And Seattle and Portland and New York and Boston and Denver and many many other cities. Nice try. It all comes down to money, jobs and services. I say this as someone who traded a 2000 square foot home on a quarter lot in the suburbs for a 2 bedroom apartment in the city. I loved living in the city and it wasn't cheap.
If it was part of the city that one "loves living in", of course it wasn't
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:27 PM   #191
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I don't see a prediction thread for electoral votes. I'll put my guess here: Biden with 290.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:28 PM   #192
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Originally Posted by Cain View Post
I don't see a prediction thread for electoral votes. I'll put my guess here: Biden with 290.
I predict just north of 300
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:29 PM   #193
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
"Highly populated areas do not necessarily mean "Cities" in the colloquial.

And Detroit has pretty much already seen all of the flight that it can see.
That's true. The friends I'm most familiar with moved from Royal Oak to Jackson.


I was part of "white flight" in some sense when I moved from one suburb to the next. When I moved into Oak Park in 1990, it was a mixed race neighborhood with a significant Jewish population. By the time I moved out of the neighborhood in 2002 there were only a few white families on the block, and half of those were Chaldean, so basically the Jews and "regular" white folks were gone.

But the point is that I don't think this year's exodus from cities was due to the usual "white flight" factors, and not fleeing riots. I think it was people who had wanted to get out, but were kept there by their jobs. The lockdown lasted long enough that work from home became a thing that lots of employers have decided to offer as a permanent solution for some employees. My friends bought a place in Jackson big enough to have a stable for two horses. That wasn't an option in Royal Oak.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:31 PM   #194
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Well if we can all drag our eyes away from the Racist trying to bait us into a "Who's on First" Routine with Indians/First Nation Peoples....

- 6 states have already surpassed their 2016 voting numbers. Turnout is going to be big, at least in spots. I hope it's a trend that will hold consistent.

- The White House put up high security fencing last night.

- Voting was down in Spalding County Georgia for brief period due to an unspecified technical glitch. Luckily it does look (by all accounts) to have been a non-nefarious honest technical issue, voting was restored quickly, and provisional ballots were given to anyone affected who couldn't wait for restoral.

There have been technical issues in Lake and Lee counties in Florida. For Lee the second page of the ballot wasn't being counted. For Lake it was some sort of issue but it appears to be resolved.

So Florida is being Florida and doing weird things again.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:31 PM   #195
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Has happened before.
I grew up in Detroit in the Seventies and Eighties
Well, at least we have a common cause to focus our research on.

Now, if only the Trump Foundation will come through on that funding request we submitted. I think we used the word "urban" enough to get our point across, but you never know.
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Last edited by Dr. Keith; 3rd November 2020 at 12:33 PM.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:32 PM   #196
Bob001
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
That's me saying that when you have people who are burning cities down, throwing bricks at police's heads, attacking people they perceive to be the wrong political camp and/or wrong race and/or a business owner - and they've been doing this across the country for months, it isn't unreasonable to give the police / national guard orders to start firing at them with live rounds.

Because it isn't unreasonable. It's incredibly, breath-takingly basic and normal to suggest that.

It's actually remarkable that it wasn't done months ago. The great majority of these events happened BECAUSE it wasn't done.

So you think Kent State was an exercise in effective law enforcement? U.S. cops have been known to overreact to protesters, often brutally, but this isn't Egypt or Iran. Our cops don't shoot into crowds. It's stunning that you don't understand how offensive your remarks are.

You're in for a major adjustment in your world view in about 24 hours.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:32 PM   #197
Pixel42
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Originally Posted by Cain View Post
I don't see a prediction thread for electoral votes.
Start one?
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:32 PM   #198
Distracted1
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
That's true. The friends I'm most familiar with moved from Royal Oak to Jackson.


I was part of "white flight" in some sense when I moved from one suburb to the next. When I moved into Oak Park in 1990, it was a mixed race neighborhood with a significant Jewish population. By the time I moved out of the neighborhood in 2002 there were only a few white families on the block, and half of those were Chaldean, so basically the Jews and "regular" white folks were gone.

But the point is that I don't think this year's exodus from cities was due to the usual "white flight" factors, and not fleeing riots. I think it was people who had wanted to get out, but were kept there by their jobs. The lockdown lasted long enough that work from home became a thing that lots of employers have decided to offer as a permanent solution for some employees. My friends bought a place in Jackson big enough to have a stable for two horses. That wasn't an option in Royal Oak.
I have a good friend I used to drive up and visit in Jackson once in a while for about three years.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:46 PM   #199
Bob001
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 3.7% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 8% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 2.6% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 6% up less than a month before the election.

I'd say that's similar enough

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 1% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 5% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 1.8% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 4% up less than a month before the election

I'd say that's similar enough too

That's certainly troubling. But a key difference between then and now is that Clinton was almost universally seen as the sure thing, the guaranteed winner, and a certain percentage of people who might have voted for her just stayed home because they didn't think their votes were needed. This time, as Ted Cruz(!) put it, Democrats will crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. But it's extremely unlikely that Trump could attract more support than he had then.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...o-win-in-2020/
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Old 3rd November 2020, 12:49 PM   #200
acbytesla
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Or compared to a 3400 sq ft home on five rural acres with garages and outbuildings.

Two of my kids love the city life, and are willing to pay more to have less, just to experience it. I'd rather have the backwoods estate with grounds for the same jingle.

Working from home has also shown a lot of people that they don't need to actually be in a city to do their jobs. I expect more suburban and rural migration.
I get that. Everything is up in the air right now. I can't imagine raising a family in the city but if you don't have kids it can be great.

I moved into the city because I hated commuting. The apartment was expensive, but it was great not fighting traffic. It's nice being home in ten minutes instead of an hour. It's great to hang out at the cafe and walking home after dinner or drinks. It's great to step outside and hop on a bus and be at the stadium or concert hall in minutes. My home in the suburbs was nice, but everything involved getting in a car. Also, the upkeep seemed to swallow most of my weekends.
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