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Tags !MOD BOX WARNING! , 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

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Old 7th November 2019, 06:38 PM   #2281
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Huh? Ok, a ground breaking female pilot. Good for her. Other than that, she's lost half the elections she's run in and is only a senator because she was appointed to the post. She LOST in her one run at a senate seat.

If that's awesome, then so am I.
I keep forgetting that you have a master's degree from Harvard, were the first female to command a fighter squadron, and were the first female senator from Arizona.
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Old 7th November 2019, 06:48 PM   #2282
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Bloomberg is apparently convinced that what the Democratic field needs is another billionaire.

Quote:
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is preparing to file paperwork to qualify for the Democratic presidential primary in Alabama, ahead of a Friday deadline. The move would be a first step toward a national campaign, though Bloomberg has not made a final decision to run.

"We now need to finish the job and ensure that Trump is defeated — but Mike is increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well positioned to do that," longtime Bloomberg aide Howard Wolfson said in an email. "If Mike runs he would offer a new choice to Democrats built on a unique record running America’s biggest city, building a business from scratch and taking on some of America’s toughest challenges as a high-impact philanthropist."
And the other billionaire on the donks' side came up with a novel way of getting endorsements: buying them.

Quote:
A top aide to Democratic presidential candidate Tom Steyer in Iowa privately offered campaign contributions to local politicians in exchange for endorsing his White House bid, according to multiple people with direct knowledge of the conversations.
Apparently not illegal, but definitely not a good look.
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Old 7th November 2019, 07:28 PM   #2283
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I keep fluctuating back and forth on Warren. All three in the top tier have wide open targets on their backs that make me nervous.
Well... it's probably worth just facing the simple fact that the GOP is going to make mountains out of molehills and flat ground for whoever wins - and that most of the "open targets" really are molehills, especially in comparison to Trump's actual mountains that the GOP keeps trying to deny or treat as molehills.

Either way, once the competition is Democrat vs Republican, there will be much more impetus to focus on the differences between the Republican and the Democrat - and the Democrats pretty much all are united when it comes to about 90% of what they value.

Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Apparently not illegal, but definitely not a good look.
As has been noted before, the legality of something is not an accurate measure of how acceptable it is, just of whether it earns a particular kind of negative consequences.
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Old 7th November 2019, 08:23 PM   #2284
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Elizabeth Warren welcomes Michael Bloomberg to the race ... with a tax calculator for billionaires

I like that move, and the humorous way it was handled.

Virginia Turnout Among Young Voters Almost Doubled from 2015!

A good step forward for the influence of younger voters.
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Old 7th November 2019, 08:46 PM   #2285
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Well... it's probably worth just facing the simple fact that the GOP is going to make mountains out of molehills and flat ground for whoever wins - and that most of the "open targets" really are molehills, especially in comparison to Trump's actual mountains that the GOP keeps trying to deny or treat as molehills.
Of course, but the pump is primed for Biden's gaffes and the evil socialism. Biden's implication of nepotism will sink him.

It has yet to matter that Trump is a gazillion times much worse. It matters how those issues are marketed. The GOP remains a gazillion times better at marketing which means those pumps are not primed with molehills.

Of the three of them, I do think Warren holds up better when attacked. So that's on the plus side.
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Old 7th November 2019, 09:54 PM   #2286
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Which leaves open the question of whether Bernie's programs would work.Good intentions are not enough.

But keep working for Sanders and get Trump reelected.
Most of his policies are good. The President is a symbol of the country and it's important to have someone with moral conviction and compassion like Sanders has lived his whole life. Plus a president has advisors to help with policy. Sanders or Warren would beat Trump. I'm not sure that Yang would beat him but I still like Yang almost as much as Sanders for his policy and his focus on facts and data driving his positions.

Biden would make me worried because I don't think people would be as enthusiastic to go out and vote with him. Just like with Hillary. And I think he's worse both on policy and character.
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Old 8th November 2019, 12:11 AM   #2287
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Which leaves open the question of whether Bernie's programs would work.Good intentions are not enough.

But keep working for Sanders and get Trump reelected.
I'm going to springboard off of you, but it applies broadly.

This is the most prolific and most vacuous argument anyone makes about the candidates.

Even when pressed in the specific, the only defense mustered seems to be some variation of "because the GOP will say exceptionally mean things about them."

I think everyone in the party thinking 80% of the other people in the party view them as misguided and naive useful idiots is going to get Trump reelected.

There, untie that pretzel :9.
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Old 8th November 2019, 05:45 AM   #2288
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Of course, but the pump is primed
Stop it right there. That's Trump's copyright!
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Old 8th November 2019, 06:05 AM   #2289
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I am inclinted to agree. She [Warren] can probably appeal to moderates and centrists, which, frankly, Sanders could not do in a thousand years. He just either cannot or will not get away from being the eternal Sixties Radical.
I'm slowly coming to the opinion that Warren would lose to Trump. She might even do worse than Sanders, because at least he takes away some of the "I like an angry white guy" vote from Trump. Medicare for all, the dreamiest of pipe dreams, spells her doom.

Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
The Berniebots are out in force I see.
That's not necessary or informative.
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Old 8th November 2019, 11:01 AM   #2290
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The only potential good if Bloomberg enters the race is that he might take some primary votes away from Biden.
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Old 8th November 2019, 12:48 PM   #2291
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
I'm slowly coming to the opinion that Warren would lose to Trump. She might even do worse than Sanders, because at least he takes away some of the "I like an angry white guy" vote from Trump.
As mentioned before, Biden and Sanders share about 25% of their voters, the two biggest second choices until recently, which is rather surprising but it suggests they both have a good chunk of the old white man vote.
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Old 8th November 2019, 01:03 PM   #2292
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
I'm slowly coming to the opinion that Warren would lose to Trump. She might even do worse than Sanders, because at least he takes away some of the "I like an angry white guy" vote from Trump. Medicare for all, the dreamiest of pipe dreams, spells her doom.

That's not necessary or informative.
Then Sanders even more radical health plan should doom him.
Or are you basically talking yourself in supporting Sanders?
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Old 8th November 2019, 01:03 PM   #2293
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Stop it right there. That's Trump's copyright!


Well, he cheats on multiple kinds of business stuff so why not use it?
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Old 8th November 2019, 01:13 PM   #2294
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Elizabeth Warren welcomes Michael Bloomberg to the race ... with a tax calculator for billionaires

I like that move, and the humorous way it was handled.

Virginia Turnout Among Young Voters Almost Doubled from 2015!

A good step forward for the influence of younger voters.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-amer...als-in-decline

Mobilized young voters combined with the fact that 18-34 year-olds are Trump's worst demographic makes this bad for Trump. Younger voters tend to be issue voters and Trump just plain sucks at two of their big issues, climate change and guns. Millennials are the first generation who are likely to live a substantial portion of their lives dealing with the worst impacts of climate change and they're pissed about it. Trump did nothing on guns either and March for our Lives students will be voting in 2020.
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Old 8th November 2019, 01:17 PM   #2295
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Then Sanders even more radical health plan should doom him.
Or are you basically talking yourself in supporting Sanders?

You seem to want everyone else to be too to the left or right of you.
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Old 8th November 2019, 01:24 PM   #2296
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post

You seem to want everyone else to be too to the left or right of you.
Another reason I see no traction in the center. Even someone who is genuinely center will be viewed as just shilling for their "true" position on one extreme or the other.
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Old 8th November 2019, 03:55 PM   #2297
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Then Sanders even more radical health plan should doom him.
Probably so.
Quote:
Or are you basically talking yourself in supporting Sanders?
No.
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Old 8th November 2019, 10:13 PM   #2298
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-amer...als-in-decline

Mobilized young voters combined with the fact that 18-34 year-olds are Trump's worst demographic makes this bad for Trump. Younger voters tend to be issue voters and Trump just plain sucks at two of their big issues, climate change and guns. Millennials are the first generation who are likely to live a substantial portion of their lives dealing with the worst impacts of climate change and they're pissed about it. Trump did nothing on guns either and March for our Lives students will be voting in 2020.
You know what politicians who depend on the youth vote do the day after election day?

Give concession speeches.
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Old 8th November 2019, 10:44 PM   #2299
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
You know what politicians who depend on the youth vote do the day after election day?

Give concession speeches.
Normally they lose. However we've seen that demographic become more politically active and vote in greater numbers in recent elections.
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Old 9th November 2019, 02:58 AM   #2300
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
Normally they lose. However we've seen that demographic become more politically active and vote in greater numbers in recent elections.
Really? Here's what the census has to say:

Quote:
However, in 2016, young voters ages 18 to 29 were the only age group to report increased turnout compared to 2012, with a reported turnout increase of 1.1 percent. All older age groups either reported small yet statistically significant turnout decreases (45- to 64-year-olds and those age 65 and older) or turnout rates not statistically different from 2012 (30- to 44-year-olds).
Sound like I proved your point? Look at the chart underneath that paragraph. The % of 18-29 year olds who reported voted in 2016 was a whopping 46.1% of that cohort. Where does that rank in presidential elections since 1980? In percentage terms it's sixth out of the last ten.
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Old 9th November 2019, 03:10 AM   #2301
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
You know what politicians who depend on the youth vote do the day after election day?

Give concession speeches.
Yeah, just ask Obama or Clinton.

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Old 9th November 2019, 03:22 AM   #2302
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Probably so.
It's the exact same plan. Just different proposed financing mechanisms (and Sanders hasn't even committed to any yet - he just threw out a bunch of ways revenue can be generated and said they could be used in some combination.)

I suspect if nominated, Liz will shift to saying she's not married to abolishing private insurance, if that's not what the people want (and only a little over 50% do.) The main purpose of banning insurance (if I'm understanding correctly) is so insurance companies don't spike doctor pay to lure doctors away from working for the public system. The secondary purpose is to gain monopsony power, so costs can actually be controlled/reduced all along the health care "supply chain" (including pharmaceuticals, radiology companies, lab companies, for-profit and non-public hospitals, etc and so on).

Taking the current exorbitant profiteering out really is crucial, unless we decide to be totally okay for forever with paying twice as much per person for health care as people in every other developed nation.

Banning insurance isn't the only way to fix those problems, tho. It's the simplest way, but it's not the only way.
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Old 9th November 2019, 06:46 AM   #2303
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Who's*.
The Ukraine.
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Old 9th November 2019, 06:48 AM   #2304
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I really don't care that Trump hates dogs although it is hardly surprising. It's that he hates people or at least anyone who refuses to stroke him that I find despicable.

I too ABSOLUTELY don't believe in any deities and yet find myself using references to God. I mean what else are you going to say during sex?
Something about a doggy?
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Old 9th November 2019, 07:11 AM   #2305
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
You know what politicians who depend on the youth vote do the day after election day?

Give concession speeches.
Not in Virginia on Wehnesday they didn't.
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Old 9th November 2019, 09:46 AM   #2306
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Really? Here's what the census has to say:



Sound like I proved your point? Look at the chart underneath that paragraph. The % of 18-29 year olds who reported voted in 2016 was a whopping 46.1% of that cohort. Where does that rank in presidential elections since 1980? In percentage terms it's sixth out of the last ten.
That is some good info. I would argue that 2016 won't show an increase because frankly most people didn't think Trump would win. Post Trump win was a wake up call and we've had a few years to see the GOP stop even trying to hide their corruption.

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...n-turnout.html

Quote:
Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.
If you want to look at the last 10 non-presidential years for comparison there is a chart farther down the page here:

http://www.electproject.org/home/vot...t/demographics

2014's rates are basically the same for the past 10 off year elections which means 2018 was a statistically significant jump.

Now this is only a single data point. And because presidential elections have a higher turnout in general, it does seem unlikely that we will see that high of an increase in the 2020 election. But I'd bet the 19-29 year old vote in 2020 will be as high or higher than in any of the past 10 presidential elections.

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Old 10th November 2019, 12:26 PM   #2307
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Hmm.

The 2018 Election Story That Supports the "Biden Is Running in the Wrong Primary" meme

Quote:
And it’s gone on from there, but I want to focus on Joe’s claim that he’s “fought for the Democratic party my whole career,” and that he knows “who we stand with,” because in the last election cycle, 2018, three weeks before Election Day, Joe Biden was paid $200,000 to give a speech to a GOP crowd, and in that speech he lavishly praised GOP Representative Fred Upton, R (MI-06) who was in the tightest race of his career.
Again, Biden would be overwhelmingly better than Trump in nearly every way, but... stuff like this makes me really not want him to be the candidate.
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Old 10th November 2019, 07:26 PM   #2308
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Hmm.

The 2018 Election Story That Supports the "Biden Is Running in the Wrong Primary" meme



Again, Biden would be overwhelmingly better than Trump in nearly every way, but... stuff like this makes me really not want him to be the candidate.
I mean, Dolt 45 is a grifting white supremacist, so picking nearly anyone over him is reasonable.

And honestly, I'd consider Weld over Gabbard, Buttigeig, or Yang - these three also strike me as third-rate grifters, while, having spoken to Weld, he's actually a good guy.

...Oh, also, above Bloomberg, assuming he enters the race...

Other than that, I'd pick even a goof like Biden over the outright white supremacist party that the GOP has become. My main consideration, even for Weld, is that he could pull them back into actual conservatism, instead of simple-minded hatred of "the other". And since they don't seem interested in simply letting others live well so much as actively harming others...well, we have to fight, yet again.
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Old 10th November 2019, 09:15 PM   #2309
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
I mean, Dolt 45 is a grifting white supremacist, so picking nearly anyone over him is reasonable.

And honestly, I'd consider Weld over Gabbard, Buttigeig, or Yang - these three also strike me as third-rate grifters, while, having spoken to Weld, he's actually a good guy.

...Oh, also, above Bloomberg, assuming he enters the race...

Other than that, I'd pick even a goof like Biden over the outright white supremacist party that the GOP has become. My main consideration, even for Weld, is that he could pull them back into actual conservatism, instead of simple-minded hatred of "the other". And since they don't seem interested in simply letting others live well so much as actively harming others...well, we have to fight, yet again.
Mmm. A conversation about Weld would likely be much more interesting if he were to actually secure the Republican nomination. My knowledge of him is limited, so I'm willing to keep an open mind, though. With that said, I also think that the Party of Trump needs refuted in a completely unambiguous way at the ballot box, so I do admit that the bar for him will be higher than it was for, say, Romney.
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Old 11th November 2019, 05:14 PM   #2310
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I thought by this point we would be subtracting candidates weekly; instead we are adding them. Deval Patrick, former governor of Massachusetts, is thinking of putting his name in play. I don't see a good lane for him to run in, though. The black alternative to Buttigieg if Biden implodes? Booker and Harris seem to have that role filled.
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Old 11th November 2019, 07:48 PM   #2311
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Is anyone else sensing that the era of political campaign "implosions" is probably mostly over?

I think the internet has maybe killed CNN/MSNBC/ABC's ability to determine 90% (or whatever) of political reality and make things like the Howard Dean "scream" a death sentence for a candidate.

I think the super-high-information voter demographic, while still extremely small relative to low-info people, has probably skyrocketed, too. (maybe from one in 300 people before, to maybe one in 40 people now? Something like that? Enough for them to have some influence now?)

Something seems to have happened, though. Maybe the echo chambers have just make the public functionally stupider, or most people much more biased. Or maybe it was firing up the Large Hadron Collider at CERN that ripped a hole in spacetime, and so everything is just kinda shifted into the 5th dimension a tad now.

I dunno, but I don't see Biden "imploding" unless something actually extreme and extremely unlikely happens.
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Old 11th November 2019, 08:36 PM   #2312
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And perpetually trying to make out with 11-year-old girls in public doesn't count as "extreme".

The biggest factor in his still lingering (although at least not leading anymore, just declining gradually) might be the stubbornness of the myth that only a Republican calling himself a Democrat can possibly beat a Republican in the general election... but the proof that that's the opposite of reality is piled so deep that that myth's stubbornness against all evidence is its own separate mystery requiring its own separate explanation, and I'm not fond of invoking one mystery to explain another. (And another lesser mystery tied in to it: if that's the only kind of "Democrat" who can beat a Republican, then what's the point of beating the Republican anyway? You know he'll still just end up joining them anyway, so it's the same as if the Republican wins.)
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Old 11th November 2019, 08:45 PM   #2313
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
And perpetually trying to make out with 11-year-old girls in public doesn't count as "extreme".

The biggest factor in his still lingering (although at least not leading anymore, just declining gradually) might be the stubbornness of the myth that only a Republican calling himself a Democrat can possibly beat a Republican in the general election... but the proof that that's the opposite of reality is piled so deep that that myth's stubbornness against all evidence is its own separate mystery requiring its own separate explanation, and I'm not fond of invoking one mystery to explain another. (And another lesser mystery tied in to it: if that's the only kind of "Democrat" who can beat a Republican, then what's the point of beating the Republican anyway? You know he'll still just end up joining them anyway, so it's the same as if the Republican wins.)
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Old 12th November 2019, 01:15 AM   #2314
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
I thought by this point we would be subtracting candidates weekly; instead we are adding them. Deval Patrick, former governor of Massachusetts, is thinking of putting his name in play. I don't see a good lane for him to run in, though. The black alternative to Buttigieg if Biden implodes? Booker and Harris seem to have that role filled.
Pure speculation: He thinks Warren will get the nod and he knows she is not popular with blacks so he's running for VP on a Warren/Patrick ticket to bolster her cred with minorities.
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Old 12th November 2019, 12:49 PM   #2315
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Dem candidate discussions

Originally Posted by TofuFighter View Post
[*]Dem candidates ... not so problematic as the shrill, uncharismatic Hillary ...
1000X this. HRC definitely got the shaft, has been treated woefully by the media and the American people for a good 20 years or so, and would have made a fine president. BUT the Democratic National Committee vastly underestimated how many people in this country simply can't stand her. Even most of the Democrats I know just wanted the Clintons to go away and be never heard from again. Part of that is fatigue from hearing about them nonstop thanks to the GOP anti-Hillary drumbeat, part is Clinton's positions being more Republican-lite than offering any kind of progressive future, and some is simply distaste for political dynasties.

But noooOOOooo, the DNC forced HRC down our throats, robbed themselves of a progressive candidate who could have really motivated huge numbers of disaffected (non)voters, pissed off all the Bernie Bros who either stayed home or voted 3rd party, and by the slimmest of margins handed Trump to the world.
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Old 12th November 2019, 12:58 PM   #2316
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Originally Posted by The Shrike View Post
1000X this. HRC definitely got the shaft, has been treated woefully by the media and the American people for a good 20 years or so, and would have made a fine president. BUT the Democratic National Committee vastly underestimated how many people in this country simply can't stand her. Even most of the Democrats I know just wanted the Clintons to go away and be never heard from again. Part of that is fatigue from hearing about them nonstop thanks to the GOP anti-Hillary drumbeat, part is Clinton's positions being more Republican-lite than offering any kind of progressive future, and some is simply distaste for political dynasties.

But noooOOOooo, the DNCprimaries forced HRC down our throats, robbed themselves of a progressive candidate who could have really motivated huge numbers of disaffected (non)voters, pissed off all the Bernie Bros who either stayed home or voted 3rd party, and by the slimmest of margins handed Trump to the world.
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Old 12th November 2019, 12:59 PM   #2317
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Originally Posted by The Shrike View Post
1000X this. HRC definitely got the shaft, has been treated woefully by the media and the American people for a good 20 years or so, and would have made a fine president. BUT the Democratic National Committee vastly underestimated how many people in this country simply can't stand her. Even most of the Democrats I know just wanted the Clintons to go away and be never heard from again. Part of that is fatigue from hearing about them nonstop thanks to the GOP anti-Hillary drumbeat, part is Clinton's positions being more Republican-lite than offering any kind of progressive future, and some is simply distaste for political dynasties.

But noooOOOooo, the DNC forced HRC down our throats, robbed themselves of a progressive candidate who could have really motivated huge numbers of disaffected (non)voters, pissed off all the Bernie Bros who either stayed home or voted 3rd party, and by the slimmest of margins handed Trump to the world.
Is Bernie a democrat yet?
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Old 12th November 2019, 01:00 PM   #2318
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
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Yeah, damn that DNC insisting that the person who got the most votes in the primary actually be the nominee.

What are they thinking, not getting behind a candidate who doesn't claim to be a democrat (unless it's convenient for him)?
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Old 12th November 2019, 01:20 PM   #2319
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Pure speculation: He thinks Warren will get the nod and he knows she is not popular with blacks so he's running for VP on a Warren/Patrick ticket to bolster her cred with minorities.
Actually that would be unconstitutional. It's a little known quirk of the Constitution that the President and the VP cannot reside in the same state. There was a little flutter about this when Bush and Cheney ran on the same ticket; Cheney had been a registered voter in Texas, but he changed his registration back to Wyoming (his home state).
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Old 12th November 2019, 01:25 PM   #2320
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
Is Bernie a democrat yet?
Is that a requirement for getting the Democratic Party nomination?

Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
Yeah, damn that DNC insisting that the person who got the most votes in the primary actually be the nominee.

What are they thinking, not getting behind a candidate who doesn't claim to be a democrat (unless it's convenient for him)?
Do you agree or disagree that the party should put a thumb on the scales when someone who isn't a card-carrying member is in the primary? (I make no claim as to whether or not that happened, but your statement can be easily interpreted to be defending the idea in concept).
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